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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?
Ed’s last two party conference speeches have dominated the political landscape, two years ago it was the One Nation speech, last year it was the energy price freeze speech. Both speeches saw a temporary uplift in his personal ratings.
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FPT: If Miliband's proposing to oppose English votes for English laws and then have his Scottish MPs vote for a tax in England which wouldn't apply in Scotland Cameron may as well cancel his conference and just show a replay of Miliband's.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Neil, that is a fair point. The riposte is that Miliband's immediately providing* an example of a tax being imposed on England by Scottish MPs voting on a matter which won't affect them or their constituents.
A tax on homes today, but what tomorrow? A tax on jobs? Sales? Income?
Depends how much is devolved, but Miliband's working hard to set a precedent for democratically indefensible actions.
*If it's confirmed it would be for England only but would be voted for by Scottish MPs.
A brave position.
Here's Iain Martin on how EVEL could work:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100287360/english-votes-for-english-laws-can-work-heres-how/
I have to confess, that I have moved on to an English Parliament and a very small UK govt for Foreign Affairs, Defence and International Aid
Who'dve thought it? 16/1
Hope we are all on
https://support.skybet.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/37/~/fraction-and-decimal-pricing
"Devolved taxation in Scotland
"The Scotland Act 2012 gives the Scottish Parliament the power to set a Scottish rate of income tax to be administered by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for Scottish taxpayers. It is expected to apply from April 2016. The Act also fully devolves the power to raise taxes on land transactions and on waste disposal to landfill – it is expected that this will take effect in April 2015, at which point the existing Stamp Duty Land Tax and Landfill Tax will not apply in Scotland. The Act also provides powers for new taxes to be created in Scotland and for additional taxes to be devolved.""
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/news/news-calman.htm
If the odds are x and your stake is £n then you will get £(n * (x + 1)) back if you win, so your winnings will be £(n*x)
You can thank me now.
Equal settlement of UK government spending would give England £300 a head higher spending.
What does that add up to over 50 odd million people?
Free tuition? Free prescription? Increased NHS spending? Better social care for the elderly?
Even though most of these new members are just people lashing out looking for a release that's still almost £1,000,000 pounds in subs taken just before an election and if even just 10% turn out to be useful operatives then that's still a lot of new active members.
http://www.sportinglife.com/bettingzone/converter
(and soon to be English voters.. )
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/most-scots-unaware-holyrood-is-to-get-new-tax-powers.24519895
So 1.26 is 0.26/1 which if you can do fractions, which I'm sure you can, is roughly 1/4 as the others on here said
1.33=0.33/1 ie 1/3
3.75=2.75/1 ie 11/4 etc
This includes the original stake, so 1.26 - 1 = 0.26 decimal odds = 1/4
If you had decimal odds of 7.0, take the 1 (stake) leaves 6.0 = 6/1
If you have 4.5, take 1 = 3.5, changed to nice fraction = 7/2
You have just been given a prime example, Scottish MP's voting for a mansion tax that applies in England but not Scotland. Do you think that kind of undemocratic rubbish will bypass the voter and go unpunished?
It has been said that Cameron and Co are rubbish at actual politics, and up until now I would agree, but they have well and truly skewered Ed on this, and so close to the GE too.
The real problem is what it says about Labour’s own confidence. The party is advertising its belief that it cannot win in England. The more Mr Miliband objects to English self-rule, the more he tacitly concedes his unpopularity among the English. The louder the hostilities between the parties on this, the clearer the impression that one is happy to take its chances in England and the other dreads such a prospect. A serious party cannot be seen to write off its chances in a nation that accounts for 85 per cent of the total electorate.
It's a good job they've got Wales...
Say what you like, but that may well prove rather popular.
The first minister has been quoted as saying he supports EV4EL.
Ed better enjoy his moment in the sun....
However, as some of the lefties on here never seem to tire of pointing out, Labour's apparent malaise - as presented in the media - has not been mirrored in any poll results. Very disheartening.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/23/UKIP-Propose-45bn-Overseas-Aid-Cut
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2766180/Backlash-begins-Labour-s-mansion-tax-plan-hit-middle-class-families-pensioners-2million.html
The Tories will ramp up the WLQ hugely, especially as already 2/3 of voters think its a fair and reasonable position to take.
If Labour do get in and try to push their England only NHS, welfare and education policies through with Scottish votes, I wouldn't be surprised to see near anarchy in England.
Labour really don't get it.
On the NHS, nearer the actual election, I can see relentless Tory side by side comparison of the Welsh NHS and NHS England. When people see how dreadful Labour are at running a health service, I cannot see their polling advantage continuing.
The "aid" budget, is not about spending money where it will help the poor, it is a political lever.
It's a kind of reverse blackmail.
edit: usually known as a bribe
Damage something which is already running reasonably well to appeal to Ed's sawdust headed lumpenpolititariat.
last year he offered a 2 year price freeze when at least 3 big elec companies already offered it and we had some of the cheapest energy prices in Europe.
Anyway, where's the other 99.9% of the deficit to be covered from? Has Ballsy told us yet?
Windfall tax on tobacco, click, mansion tax, whirl, defend NHS, click, bedroom tax, baby eating Tories.
Local BBC claimed that it had been a dull conference, but hadn't had any disasters.
Hurrah for the glory days of British Rail (when the trains were really shit).
So that's 9 * 25k = £225,000 or more. not £1,000,000.
I'm watching to see if these new members are conspiraloon turbo-nats or something more sane.
Just who is he popular with?
I'm surrounded by Labour activists.
I feel like Leonidas at Thermopylae.
Would you be open to suggestions?
By conservatives....???....er no, London labour MPs (Lammy, Abbott).
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 4m
As audience awaits EdMiliband, choir is singing Lion King's hakuna matata.
I would have thought that it would be quite high say 20/1
"Barnett was supposed to [insert whatever you like here] not give free tuition fees and prescriptions to Scottish millionaires."
Harry Cole retweeted
Hugo Rifkind @hugorifkind 2m
Last year, Miliband spoke for an hour. This year, he starts at 14.30. And Obama speaks live at 15.00. #labconf14
Probably not much difference to be honest, but thought I'd let people who might have an angle know
As for one party gaining seats from two other parties on the same day, I don't think it's ever happened...
in the case of the UK, not all of it, but there is always some that goes to keeping the other party "sweet"
I thought it was Labour policy to balance the overall budget. That's what Rachel Reeves said the other day wasn't it?
I take it from this that Labour will be fighting 2015 on that '35%' basis then, and make no real attempt to win over floating Tories?
Big mistake.
Exactly how I see it working, and how I want it to work. Simple, straightforward, effective - and more importantly, you could implement it next month if the will was there.