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So can Truss turn this round for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageSo can Truss turn this round for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

This time next week the new PM will have been in office for two days and have handled, well or badly, the first PMQs.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,849
    First?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    No. CoL crisis is going to be so big it will do for the Tories altogether.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,371
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    18.5 Rishi Sunak 5%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    19 Rishi Sunak 5%
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    dixiedean said:

    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.

    Nevermind that. Sunderland now 3-0 up against Rotherham.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.

    Nevermind that. Sunderland now 3-0 up against Rotherham.
    Tony Mowbray having a great first game in charge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,879
    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,241
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.

    Nevermind that. Sunderland now 3-0 up against Rotherham.
    Tony Mowbray having a great first game in charge.
    Next game: Boro away ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead

    I think a dip is as likely or more than a bounce. I think the public like Sunak more. He does empathy and seems more human, and non poll watchers might expect him to win.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead

    If Keir was any good LAB would be 40% clear
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    dixiedean said:

    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.

    Evening, Dixiedean. Re your comments a few days ago re your flat, you see the Graun re caravan site homes, boats, etc. which are also in your bind re energy?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/gypsies-travellers-fear-missing-out-energy-bills-support
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Unlikely, given the stupid hostages to fortune she's given. But there again she may be lying or "misunderstood" as it's now known. So who can say.

    Meanwhile FPT -

    Well, while the country goes to hell in a hand basket etc, some small pieces of good news in the Cyclefree household -

    - client likes my article and is singing my praises to various US media outlets

    - More importantly, Youngest Son looks as if he has found himself somewhere to live. It was starting to stress him out as there was a dearth of reasonably priced accommodation and a lot of unhelpful agents. (Many thanks also to @kyf_100 for his valuable help.)

    - And Eldest Son has passed his probationary period and is now a full time permanent employee of a well known and well regarded employer. Am SOO pleased for him. He has had some really tough times but has worked hard for this and is doing well and has found something he is good at and which will give him the self-confidence to build on what he has achieved.

    So I'd quite like it please if the Tories could not fuck up the economy anymore than they have already. People's lives - like my sons' - depend on this.

    As the late Seamus Heaney put it (about Ireland but it equally applies to us)

    “We are not simply a credit rating or an economy but a history and a culture, a human population rather than a statistical phenomenon.”

    Politicians would do well to remember the human population with whose care they are temporarily entrusted.

    It's good you reposted that, because it means I get the chance to like it twice to show how pleased I am for you all :smile:
    Me too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    He doesn't deserve it, but in these eternally short sighted times Mark Robins probably going to be sacked for Coventry City.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead

    There are such things as dead cats, though. In more than one sense.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    QTWTAIN
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457

    No. CoL crisis is going to be so big it will do for the Tories altogether.

    Would be just about manageable under normal circumstances.
    But. As others have noted, large sectors of the State simply are not performing. Too many issues need dealing with at once.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,879
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead

    C+4 L-4 would take her (just) into the lead in some polls. She would have to utterly bomb to not do that.

    She might utterly bomb, though.

    Anyhoo, it's probably downhill from there...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,155
    edited August 31
    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    edited August 31
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Second. Like the Toon nearly had then.

    Evening, Dixiedean. Re your comments a few days ago re your flat, you see the Graun re caravan site homes, boats, etc. which are also in your bind re energy?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/30/gypsies-travellers-fear-missing-out-energy-bills-support
    Slightly different.
    I'll get the support. Because I get a bill. Just don't fall under the cap.
    But there are plenty in the same boat. Or caravan. Or flat.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,493
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    How long do you think before Johnson returns as the nation's hero?

    Not too long I suspect.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Gove is one sick fuck.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Was that because it was the shortest speech of the night?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Gove is one sick fuck.
    Many folk could never get Scots irony.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Was that because it was the shortest speech of the night?
    Should have been a minute's silence.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 516

    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane.

    It does seem very strange. Does she have past "I thought it was in the bag but I unexpectedly narrowly lost" experiences that might prompt her to keep putting in maximum effort to the end, maybe?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,633

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    Whatever will I do with no more hustings to look forward to?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,459
    edited August 31

    FPT

    Ironically, BEIS should be one of the most important portfolio in Cabinet right now.

    Even besides the worsening climate crisis, we are seeing the collapse of the post-91 global order in which the USA relied on cheap imports from China and Europe relied on cheap energy from Russia.

    China has become too technologically sophisticated and diplomatically menacing to rely upon, Russia has tipped into outright defiance of international law and brutality.

    The consequence is that the West is in a race against time to renationalise key supply chain dependencies, including computer chips, energy, and commodities.

    The UK spends fuck all on R&D and infrastructure, and wonders why it’s GDP has struggled to keep pace with its peers.

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    When you say 'cheap energy from Russia', you do know that the Russians and the Norwegians and Algerians and the Egyptians all sell gas to Europe at essentially the same price - i.e. the market clearing price.

    This isn't a situation where Europe (and Germany especially) bought natural gas at some discount to the world market price. Yes, Russian and Norwegian gas was cheaper that Qatari or Australian natural gas, but that was largely a consequence of the fact that it came by pipeline (cost per mcf for transport 20cents 49 cents) rather than from around the world, after having been frozen into liquid form ($1-3).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604
    edited August 31
    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,233
    How long until we read the following sentence? ‘Conservative MPs are only holding back from submitting letters of No Confidence in Liz Truss to the Chair of the 1922 because they fear Boris Johnson would win any subsequent leadership election.’
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1565075628168192004
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 31
    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,879

    dixiedean said:

    No. CoL crisis is going to be so big it will do for the Tories altogether.

    Would be just about manageable under normal circumstances.
    But. As others have noted, large sectors of the State simply are not performing. Too many issues need dealing with at once.
    The killer is the number of people whose income is not keeping pace with inflation at a time that they're being hit with insane increases in energy costs. Pretty much everyone feels significantly poorer, and an incumbent government will inevitably pay the price when that happens.
    And the failure of State functions is part of that- it makes the places in which we live feel tatty and cheap- mostly because they are being run in a tatty way in order to be cheap. But since that's the accumulation of a generation or so of political decisions, it's not going to be easy to reverse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited August 31

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    I am certainly no fan of Cameron (a self-entitled no-talent posh-boy) but which ludicrous pronouncements of his did you have in mind? Aside from airy immigration targets, I can't think of many.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    I am certainly no fan of Cameron (a self-entitled no-talent posh-boy) but which ludicrous pronouncements of his did you have in mind? Aside from airy immigration targets, I can't think of many.
    He completely made up a policy that the Tories were going to force energy firms to put everyone automatically on the cheapest tariff. Just blurted it out in an interview. The policy was completely unworkable, and unravelled in minutes, and when asked about it, he doubled down on it. Nothing actually happened with it afaik.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT

    Ironically, BEIS should be one of the most important portfolio in Cabinet right now.

    Even besides the worsening climate crisis, we are seeing the collapse of the post-91 global order in which the USA relied on cheap imports from China and Europe relied on cheap energy from Russia.

    China has become too technologically sophisticated and diplomatically menacing to rely upon, Russia has tipped into outright defiance of international law and brutality.

    The consequence is that the West is in a race against time to renationalise key supply chain dependencies, including computer chips, energy, and commodities.

    The UK spends fuck all on R&D and infrastructure, and wonders why it’s GDP has struggled to keep pace with its peers.

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    When you say 'cheap energy from Russia', you do know that the Russians and the Norwegians and Algerians and the Egyptians all sell gas to Europe at essentially the same price - i.e. the market clearing price.

    This isn't a situation where Europe (and Germany especially) bought natural gas at some discount to the world market price. Yes, Russian and Norwegian gas was cheaper that Qatari or Australian natural gas, but that was largely a consequence of the fact that it came by pipeline (cost per mcf for transport 20cents) rather than from around the world, after having been frozen into liquid form ($1-3).
    I meant “cheap” in historical terms rather than “cheap” versus alternatives.

    Europe (Germany’s) export powerhouse has been built on easy access to Russian energy.

    Those days are now over, and the benign environment that roughly characterised 1991 onwards is now at an end.

    The implication for the UK in terms of industrial policy is to do pretty much the precise opposite of what Liz Truss (and her fellow travellers) think.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    Yes, but he didn't sound like an idiot...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,591
    edited August 31
    Fuck the Geordies and their time wasting antics.

    Karma's a fucking bitch.

    Take that Cramp FC.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    Yes, but he didn't sound like an idiot...
    He was a far more gifted speaker than Truss, as was Boris. It didn't equal competency in either case.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,641

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    I am certainly no fan of Cameron (a self-entitled no-talent posh-boy) but which ludicrous pronouncements of his did you have in mind? Aside from airy immigration targets, I can't think of many.
    He completely made up a policy that the Tories were going to force energy firms to put everyone automatically on the cheapest tariff. Just blurted it out in an interview. The policy was completely unworkable, and unravelled in minutes, and when asked about it, he doubled down on it. Nothing actually happened with it afaik.
    I don’t remember that especially, but he was onto something.

    You shouldn’t need a PhD in pricing strategy, or even an impeccable credit history, to access energy at a reasonable cost.
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 31

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    Yes, but he didn't sound like an idiot...
    There's been a strong downward trend in the quality of prime ministers for a long time.

    Same might also be said of ministers. This is Andrea Jenkyns, who shortly after making this gesture imported from the USA is reported to have shouted "He who laughs last, laughs the loudest. Wait and see!"

    She is what the police call a "hundred yard hero".

    image

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,459
    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    It might help the poor Russian people understand the situation, if they knew that their leader had invaded a next door neighbour for... for... some important reason.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    glw said:

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    I have no idea how JRM is seen as anything but an arrogant idiot. How the hell the Tories have concluded that he appeals to the electorate and is competent enough to be in the cabinet is completey beyond my ken.

    As far as I can tell the Tory Party has gone completely stark raving mad.
    They seem to have entered the death wish stage of the cycle where after 12 long years they are exhausted and bereft of any ideas other than just raving nonsense and putting jokes into senior positions.

    The worst economic crisis since the 1970s will finally finish the job I think.

    Two more years of chaos and crisis and untold damage and civil unrest and then a new government. Time for change will never have resonated so much.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,185

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Gove is one sick fuck.
    Remember: there's always a play with Gove.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    I think she genuinely cannot stop herself blurting out reflex responses without considering the implications of her answers.

    I may well be wrong but I feel she could quickly become a national object of ridicule, making ludicrous pronouncement after pronouncement. Like Trump but without Trump's weird but clearly effective charisma.
    Didn't hurt Cameron. He was always making up policies on the hoof and leaving people to clear up the mess.
    I am certainly no fan of Cameron (a self-entitled no-talent posh-boy) but which ludicrous pronouncements of his did you have in mind? Aside from airy immigration targets, I can't think of many.
    He completely made up a policy that the Tories were going to force energy firms to put everyone automatically on the cheapest tariff. Just blurted it out in an interview. The policy was completely unworkable, and unravelled in minutes, and when asked about it, he doubled down on it. Nothing actually happened with it afaik.
    I don’t remember that especially, but he was onto something.

    You shouldn’t need a PhD in pricing strategy, or even an impeccable credit history, to access energy at a reasonable cost.
    Well yes - if the policy did not have appeal, he wouldn't have made it up in an interview to sound good - the fact is it wasn't anything that he'd actually discussed with anyone or made a plan about. Hence it never happened.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,876

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect Truss will get a bounce.

    The question is would it be big enough for her to take the lead

    If Keir was any good LAB would be 40% clear
    No...100% surely?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,698
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT

    Ironically, BEIS should be one of the most important portfolio in Cabinet right now.

    Even besides the worsening climate crisis, we are seeing the collapse of the post-91 global order in which the USA relied on cheap imports from China and Europe relied on cheap energy from Russia.

    China has become too technologically sophisticated and diplomatically menacing to rely upon, Russia has tipped into outright defiance of international law and brutality.

    The consequence is that the West is in a race against time to renationalise key supply chain dependencies, including computer chips, energy, and commodities.

    The UK spends fuck all on R&D and infrastructure, and wonders why it’s GDP has struggled to keep pace with its peers.

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    When you say 'cheap energy from Russia', you do know that the Russians and the Norwegians and Algerians and the Egyptians all sell gas to Europe at essentially the same price - i.e. the market clearing price.

    This isn't a situation where Europe (and Germany especially) bought natural gas at some discount to the world market price. Yes, Russian and Norwegian gas was cheaper that Qatari or Australian natural gas, but that was largely a consequence of the fact that it came by pipeline (cost per mcf for transport 20cents 49 cents) rather than from around the world, after having been frozen into liquid form ($1-3).
    "frozen into liquid form"

    Oh dear, oh dear.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    Is it 70 years?

    Er, no.

    https://obr.uk/box/the-receipts-to-gdp-ratio-since-1986-87/

    image

    Since the end of this graph tax receipts have fallen as a proportion of GDP. Of course that will change again if HMG organises another recession.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457

    glw said:

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    I have no idea how JRM is seen as anything but an arrogant idiot. How the hell the Tories have concluded that he appeals to the electorate and is competent enough to be in the cabinet is completey beyond my ken.

    As far as I can tell the Tory Party has gone completely stark raving mad.
    They seem to have entered the death wish stage of the cycle where after 12 long years they are exhausted and bereft of any ideas other than just raving nonsense and putting jokes into senior positions.

    The worst economic crisis since the 1970s will finally finish the job I think.

    Two more years of chaos and crisis and untold damage and civil unrest and then a new government. Time for change will never have resonated so much.

    Proportionally much worse than the Seventies.
    It's war time stuff.
    Without the bombs or conscription obviously.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022
    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    Gove is one sick fuck.
    Remember: there's always a play with Gove.
    The Return of the King O' the Water next summer will also mean Gove back in government presumably as Deputy PM.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    I'm reminded of 2014 - vote No to keep a strong pound.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,459

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT

    Ironically, BEIS should be one of the most important portfolio in Cabinet right now.

    Even besides the worsening climate crisis, we are seeing the collapse of the post-91 global order in which the USA relied on cheap imports from China and Europe relied on cheap energy from Russia.

    China has become too technologically sophisticated and diplomatically menacing to rely upon, Russia has tipped into outright defiance of international law and brutality.

    The consequence is that the West is in a race against time to renationalise key supply chain dependencies, including computer chips, energy, and commodities.

    The UK spends fuck all on R&D and infrastructure, and wonders why it’s GDP has struggled to keep pace with its peers.

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    When you say 'cheap energy from Russia', you do know that the Russians and the Norwegians and Algerians and the Egyptians all sell gas to Europe at essentially the same price - i.e. the market clearing price.

    This isn't a situation where Europe (and Germany especially) bought natural gas at some discount to the world market price. Yes, Russian and Norwegian gas was cheaper that Qatari or Australian natural gas, but that was largely a consequence of the fact that it came by pipeline (cost per mcf for transport 20cents) rather than from around the world, after having been frozen into liquid form ($1-3).
    I meant “cheap” in historical terms rather than “cheap” versus alternatives.

    Europe (Germany’s) export powerhouse has been built on easy access to Russian energy.

    Those days are now over, and the benign environment that roughly characterised 1991 onwards is now at an end.

    The implication for the UK in terms of industrial policy is to do pretty much the precise opposite of what Liz Truss (and her fellow travellers) think.
    Well, there will always be energy price differentials, because energy is fundamentally difficult to move around (although some would say that's why aluminium smelters exist).

    The gaps in energy prices between prices, though, have been converging for the last two decades, as getting gas around has gotten a hell of a lot cheaper.

    The differentials blew out with the invasion of Ukraine, but the reasons (LNG, massive gas deposits in countries with little ability to use resources domestically) have not gone away in the medium term. It's just that right now, we don't have the LNG vessels to easily balance the market.

    The result is that the US and European prices for gas used to be linked, because if gas got too cheap in the US, someone would buy it up and ship it to Europe (cost $2), and pocket the profit.

    Now, though, there simply aren't enough tankers to make the market balance.

    But a lack of shipping capacity is a very short-term problem. I can assure you that in Korea and Japan, the shipyards are going to be flooded with orders. And - sure - it'll take a couple of years for the ships to be built. But built they will be.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    I'll admit to being a bit of a new Truss fan, but even I don't think she's capable enough to turn the economy around before she's even in office.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    Rises in interest rates coming. Another thing to tip folk over the edge.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Ship money?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,459

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT

    Ironically, BEIS should be one of the most important portfolio in Cabinet right now.

    Even besides the worsening climate crisis, we are seeing the collapse of the post-91 global order in which the USA relied on cheap imports from China and Europe relied on cheap energy from Russia.

    China has become too technologically sophisticated and diplomatically menacing to rely upon, Russia has tipped into outright defiance of international law and brutality.

    The consequence is that the West is in a race against time to renationalise key supply chain dependencies, including computer chips, energy, and commodities.

    The UK spends fuck all on R&D and infrastructure, and wonders why it’s GDP has struggled to keep pace with its peers.

    The Tory government has put a succession of laissez-faire plodders into BEIS, and Liz Truss threatens to top it with a man so incompetent he is not sure which century we are in.

    When you say 'cheap energy from Russia', you do know that the Russians and the Norwegians and Algerians and the Egyptians all sell gas to Europe at essentially the same price - i.e. the market clearing price.

    This isn't a situation where Europe (and Germany especially) bought natural gas at some discount to the world market price. Yes, Russian and Norwegian gas was cheaper that Qatari or Australian natural gas, but that was largely a consequence of the fact that it came by pipeline (cost per mcf for transport 20cents 49 cents) rather than from around the world, after having been frozen into liquid form ($1-3).
    "frozen into liquid form"

    Oh dear, oh dear.
    Oh my.

    I apologize. That was a big boo boo. :neutral:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    pigeon said:

    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Ship money?
    Sumptuary taxes?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882
    It's always darkest before the dawn.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,457
    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Beard tax. They deserve it.
    Window tax. Mine are tiny.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    Rises in interest rates coming. Another thing to tip folk over the edge.
    Everyone is ******ed now. Sorry to be gloomy 😡😡😡😡
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    edited August 31
    dixiedean said:

    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Beard tax. They deserve it.
    Window tax. Mine are tiny.
    Tough shite. Window tax is on the number of apertures, not the size.

    PS But also powder tax for wigs. And servant tax.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    Rises in interest rates coming. Another thing to tip folk over the edge.
    With luck interest rates will climb into double digits and there'll then be an almighty house price crash. It's the one thing that might finally send the Conservatives' support into proper freefall.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    pigeon said:

    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Ship money?
    Window tax!

    Brick those heat losing holes up, save money, win-win.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    dixiedean said:

    Whatever will I do with no more hustings to look forward to?

    Breathe a sigh of relief.

    And then recall Truss is about to become PM.
  • Why is Labour behind?

    Labour ties

    Why is Labour tying?

    Labour pulls ahead

    Why is Labour not further ahead?

    Labour pulls 15 points ahead

    Keir Starmer will always be useless because the same people who say so wouldn't vote for him anyway
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    By my reckoning 1 in 30 or so of party members were in the audience.

    That's a big wedge. Yet most will have voted three weeks ago.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,604
    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Peter the Great's beard tax? Hit the milennials where it hurts?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Why is Labour behind?

    Labour ties

    Why is Labour tying?

    Labour pulls ahead

    Why is Labour not further ahead?

    Labour pulls 15 points ahead

    Keir Starmer will always be useless because the same people who say so wouldn't vote for him anyway

    Why is KSICIPM?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    Rises in interest rates coming. Another thing to tip folk over the edge.
    With luck interest rates will climb into double digits and there'll then be an almighty house price crash. It's the one thing that might finally send the Conservatives' support into proper freefall.
    If Goldman are right an inflation hits a 1970s style 22% this winter, then BoE will have to massively hike rates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    When you are relying on China as your best friend.....

    It's like relying on Boris to chaperone your attractive fiance
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Chris said:

    It's always darkest before the dawn.

    Unless you die in the night.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,698
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Beard tax. They deserve it.
    Window tax. Mine are tiny.
    Tough shite. Window tax is on the number of apertures, not the size.

    PS But also powder tax for wigs. And servant tax.
    The Moggster would veto those two.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    edited August 31

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    GBP was over 2 USD through the whole of 1980.

    1.05 was 25th February 1985.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,099
    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    When you are relying on China as your best friend.....

    It's like relying on Boris to chaperone your attractive fiance
    Mr J is, erm, that way inclined? News to me.
  • Nobody:

    WE MUST GET RID OF SPEED LIMITS

    Liz Truss:

    what a great policy!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    When you are relying on China as your best friend.....

    It's like relying on Boris to chaperone your attractive fiance
    Mr J is, erm, that way inclined? News to me.
    Autocorrect is gay
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,022

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    GBP was over 2 USD through the whole of 1980.

    1.05 was 25th February 1985.
    Ok it's a timing error 👍
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    When you are relying on China as your best friend.....

    It's like relying on Boris to chaperone your attractive fiance
    It’s essentially Vladimir no mates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    It's always darkest before the dawn.

    Anyone who says that has clearly never stayed up through the night: it is very definitely not darkest just before dawn.
    Psychologically, it is, tho. I spent a night in an apparently haunted Plantation mansion in semi-rural Louisiana a couple of years ago. My God that night was long. And genuinely creepy as fuck, to a psychotic degree

    Just one example: when I finally fell asleep (at about 6am) I had vivid disturbing dreams of children being weirdly forced to play, on the stairs and in the garden

    At 10am the staff came back to make me a delicious breakfast. I asked the cheery chef if the place was haunted. He said "Oh we often get guests saying that, they claim they see a little girl playing on the stairs"

    No joke. BRRR. That was the only time I have ever had occasion to believe in ghosts. I still don't know what happened

    ANYWAY the darkest moment of that long dark night of the soul was just before dawn. When it seemed that dawn would never come
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Selebian said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Also FPT, but relevant here:

    Did Liz put forward a solution to the energy situation at the hustings??

    Just asking hopefully 👍

    Does this help?

    👀One to bookmark

    Nick Ferrari: "You’ll be aware in France they talked about the possibility of energy rationing. Can you rule that out?"

    Liz Truss: "I do rule that out. Yes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565057693492068358


    Liz Truss is asked whether she can repeat what Boris Johnson said in 2019: "There will be no new taxes, read my lips".

    She replies: "Yes. No new taxes".


    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565054559717933058

    Asked specifically if there will be another windfall tax, she rules it out: "No". (Some Tories feel that with energy companies profits soaring, this will be inevitable).

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1565058867171676169

    This isn't going to end well, is it?
    To keep giving hostages to fortune like this, when everyone knows she is already home and dry seems insane. Incoming events are going to be brutal, and I don't see any sign of her having the same Reality Shield that protected Boris.
    Yes, it is absolutely crazy to cut off possibilities.

    I think though that she actually means it, and will have a brief premiership of ideological zeal, untethered by common sense.
    Given that we have the highest taxes for 70 years (edit - is it 70 years? Certainly for a long time), and our biggest focus is to try to stave off recession, is it so very outlandish to suggest that no new taxes will be introduced during the next two years?

    Perhaps a windfall tax on utilities, but personally I don't support that.
    The Government has to pay for an awful lot of stuff, and the bills keep increasing. If it won't tax more, does it intend to borrow more or to reduce the amount of stuff it pays for?

    Those are the only three choices for finding enough money to keep the ship of state from sinking: tax, borrow, cut spending. The Tory magic money tree (cut taxes and growth will magically plug the budget holes, because Laffer) is no more realistic than the idea that we can print money ad infinitum without consequence. So, what's it going to be?
    Simple. No new taxes. Maybe bring back some old ones. Poll tax maybe? :wink:
    Peter the Great's beard tax? Hit the milennials where it hurts?
    When I visited Serbia/Yugoslavia back in 1980s they had a roof tax. The countryside was littered with houses with two stories and a roof with various bits of brickwork above the roof to show where the third floor was about to be built. They were left like this for years to avoid the tax.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,297
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    It's always darkest before the dawn.

    Anyone who says that has clearly never stayed up through the night: it is very definitely not darkest just before dawn.
    Yes, but it’s definitely not darkest after the dawn.
    (You added the ‘just’.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,750
    I have just realised Erling Haaland was born in Leeds - how did England let him slip away to Norway?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,882
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Dynamo said:

    Russian opinion poll, reported in TASS. 1600 respondents, polled by telephone, 13 Aug 2022. Which countries do people consider to be among those with which Russia is most friendly?

    China 55% (up 10pp from 2019)
    Belarus 49%
    India 22%
    Turkey 17%
    Kazakhstan 13%
    Serbia 11% (+9pp)
    Iran 10% (+7pp)
    UAE 3%
    Saudi Arabia 2%
    Pakistan 2%

    (No mention of Armenia in the write-up.)

    Least friendly:

    USA 76% (+9pp)
    Ukraine 43% (-10pp)
    Britain 39% (+14pp)
    Germany 32% (+23pp)
    Poland 28%
    France 21%
    Latvia 14%
    Lithuania 12%
    Estonia 11%
    Finland 5%
    Bulgaria 2%
    Czechia 2%
    Georgia 1% (-12pp)

    So: biggest changes in pp since 2019:

    China, Serbia, Iran - UP among perceived FRIENDLIES;
    Germany, Britain, USA - UP among perceived UNFRIENDLIES;
    Georgia, Ukraine - DOWN among perceived UNFRIENDLIES.

    Past performance is no indication etc...., but just looking at the top scoring perceived unfriendlies you gotta wonder whether Britain and perhaps also Germany might soon overtake Ukraine.

    When you are relying on China as your best friend.....

    It's like relying on Boris to chaperone your attractive fiance
    It’s essentially Vladimir no mates.
    Yes. It's quite a tragic list

    "Who likes me?"

    *licks pencil, gets out notepaper, prepares to write*

    "Errr, those Nazis in China, who want to rule us. They seem kinda friendly, even if they act..... strangely. Do I have any other friends? How about those people I bully in Belaruss? They keep saying nice things"

    So sad. Russia is a great country, reduced to this
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,240
    edited August 31
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest applause of the final hustings in London this evening was when Gove paid tribute to Boris' achievements

    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1565046819687731203?s=20&t=yTBs4uDg0KXINUqmk8TmwQ

    A very quick turn by Gove then?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Why is Labour behind?

    Labour ties

    Why is Labour tying?

    Labour pulls ahead

    Why is Labour not further ahead?

    Labour pulls 15 points ahead

    Keir Starmer will always be useless because the same people who say so wouldn't vote for him anyway

    Why is KSICIPM?

    Keir Starmer is crap is prime minister

    Phatboi John owls did Ed is crap is pm posts every bloody day 2013 to 15. Why anyone thinks a reprise is OK is anybody's guess
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Chris said:

    It's always darkest before the dawn.

    No it isn't it gets gradually lighter
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,240
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Thursday’s CITY A.M. - “Pound To Hit Dollar Low” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1565077475872411658/photo/1

    Total Sterling meltdown. Truss is useless. But didn't it reach 1.05 in 1980? I may be wrong DYOR.

    Anyway inflation was lower in 1980 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
    Rises in interest rates coming. Another thing to tip folk over the edge.
    With luck interest rates will climb into double digits and there'll then be an almighty house price crash. It's the one thing that might finally send the Conservatives' support into proper freefall.
    Just killed a purchase on account of this risk.
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