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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford
One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election.
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What was the turnout at the locals Mike? Those that did vote this May may represent a sizeable chunk of the pool of available LibDems next May.....
Titter ....
Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.
The lowest opportunities and biggest risks appear for Labour. Whilst the WLQ is not currently a high-profile issue to the public, it does not take much media pressure for it to become so. This is particularly a problem for Miliband, who does not hesitate to scream about fairness in other issues, yet is willing to let unfairness continue when it advantages him. Worse, his proposed solution is an obvious delaying tactic, already has an answer defined, and is easy to paint as ridiculous.
All it needs for Labour to take a real hit is for the other parties and the media to raise the issue's profile.
As an aside, we had some (English) friends visit yesterday who are not normally political. They both stayed up from four in the morning to watch the referendum results come in, despite work the next day. The referendum connected with them, and they knew about the vow. There may be an opening for the 'unfairness' meme to stick.
I wonder what the viewing figures for the referendum TV shows were?
It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBkTUzKAiXQ
I think it summarises Scots' perceptions nicely....
http://www.mediafire.com/view/b0p8qsmjp1ab8ac/YouGov polls since 2010GE.jpg#
I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?
Labour is an idea whose time has gone. People don't see an end to austerity, not least because they have lost faith in themselves. "Social justice" is increasingly seen as a means of transferring wealth from young people to oldies. Any society that does that impoverishes itself (or at least that's the historical record) - the valleys of South Wales may merely be a few years ahead of the rest of western Europe.
It's a kind of self-harm for me to say so, but I am beginning to think we need a maximum as well as a minimum voting age!
Mob rule here we come...
Incidentally, Danny Alexander seems to have had a “good referendum”.
You know the answers to these questions as well as I do, RP...
It's like they've decided that the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy is true for the entirety of Scotland, and therefore withdraw themselves from it.
According to him everything in the world is wrong since Maggie Thatcher became PM, yet he describes Miliband as about as much use as "a boil on the scrotum".. If that's what Labour voters think...
The 11/2 Mike took is a value bet but I wouldn't be taking 7/2, and we have yet to see for certain how they will go with EV4EL, I certainly wouldn't trust anything Clegg has said so far.
2.88 with Victor or 3.2 with Unibet, where I do not have an account. Has anyone got an account with them and if so are they OK?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VqpQclCnb6s
Legal arguments are correct. Shame that the Scots were too educated to recognise and recognised this....
Edited: Semantically more accurate....
Although many such voters may be in traditional Labour safe seats where the vote is weighed rather than counted, and Labour voters in marginals may be more inclined to vote against the Conservatives.
I can't see it not being a factor, but perhaps not a GE-losing one. Might Miliband win the election on a record low percentage vote? In fact, what is the current record low percentage vote for a winning party?
The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.
Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.
I think it’s getting through but, as you rightly say, it depends on whether the Press runs with it. As it seems as though UKIP is going to, I don’t think ity’ll be forgotten.
And who would the unions back?
No need for a poll. They are bereft of any leadership. Hattie would be hopeless. Doggie. oops Doogie (not a bad typo actually ) hopeless. Chucka oh dear .. there is only Darling who carries any type of authority and gravitas.
Never mind ... IOS assures us that the Labour GOTV is all that matters, the Tories are fecked.. nothing can go wrong till the coronation of ED.
Given all that, it is extraordinary that with just months to go the Tories - with their relatively popular leader - have not established a winning opinion poll lead. They really need to find a magic wand to win those UKIPers back. EV4EL is clearly the latest attempt to do that. The problem is that the one demographic which seems to strongly dislike Dave is the UKIP one.
In the Euros the range of overstatement of the Lab-Tory gap was 2.5 to 5.5%.
Miliband's ratings are terrible.
It's one thing to say you're Labour when your opinion is solicited, it's another to drag yourself off to vote. We've just seen that in Scotland with the YES revolution that didn't materialise.
Any price north of 1/2 on is value.
It is also worth remembering just how many Labour staffers were in Scotland latterly doing good work for No. They all saw this at first hand and the word will have gone back south of the border with them.
The key, I think, is that on "who do you most trust", the runaway winner is "nobody", with Cameron ahead by just 6 on 22-16 (Farage gets 12, Clegg 4). People aren't voting on leaders this time.
Ed seems determined to lose England
@dizzy_thinks: Who knew @Ed_Miliband would put a desire for power ahead of the entire nation of England?
while others want to lose Scotland
@gavinboyd2012: .@PickardJE HT @WingsScotland: Jack Straw calls for Scottish independence to be made illegal http://t.co/WjAYPPzsM9 Lab finished in Scot
I think you've misunderstood the meaning of contiguous. Wales and England are contiguous, Wales and Scotland are not.
In reality we (the whole UK) could have voted not to allow the 'indyref' in the first place even without a law.
In point of fact the real issue Straw raised was his and Labour's wish not to allow EV4EL.
My plan is to dutch Ivanovic with Ramires if he starts, pays 1.34 if one of them gets booked and 2.67 if they both do.
@steve_hawkes: Labour bombard Sunday papers to talk £8 an hour min wage (by 2020), housing, schools, cost-of-living.. Anything but Scotland
Looking at the 2010 results for Watford parliamentary , council and mayoral results which were held all on the same day gives some indication of Dorothy Thornhill's personal vote .
The council and mayoral results are contiguous , the parliamentary results include some areas outside Watford council area .
Lib Dem parliamentary vote GE 17,866
Lib Dem council vote 16,361
Dorothy Thornhill mayoral vote 19,153
Conservative parliamentary vote GE 19,291
Conservative council vote 12,934
Conservative mayoral vote 10.403
Labour parliamentary vote GE 14,750
Labour council vote 10,769
Labour mayoral vote 10,029
Green parliamentary vote GE 885
Green council vote 3,040
Green mayoral vote 2,173
Subtitle. Ed, come ahead if you think you're hard enough...
This is not a judgement on Scotland. I like Scotland. It is a judgement on the Labour Party and its reliance on Scottish MPs and the effects of devolution. With no devolution I would not have a problem with any Scottish PM in respect of their background,
In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....
Oopps ....
And Milliband wont be able to get through a GE campaign with no media presence or policies.
Suppose labour dont win the next GE. The coalition will be more than happy to carry on and UKIP will pick up former labour voters.
Suppose labour manage to win the GE despite Ed, the rich wont be taxed more, the middle cant be, and the working class dont pay tax anyway. So massive austerity will happen that will rip the labour party apart and finally destroy the tribalism that holds their electoral support together.
This is not going to end well for weird Ed. Or labour.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro
As an aside, the one election I failed to vote in was the 2005 GE. I was walking in Scotland, and none of my candidates particularly inspire me. Worse, neither Blair, Howard or Kennedy were people I would instinctively give my vote. So I did not get a PV, put my head down and climbed the hills.
I wonder if anyone on here has read this book:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/04/08/book-review-platform-or-personality-the-role-of-party-leaders-in-elections/
Harriet is deputy, has good union links and Dave finds women harder to deal with. 33/1 with Shadsy.
I see that Shadsy has taken down his constituency markets for a bit of revision, apart from PP are there any others? I may have a little flutter on Watford.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/latest-icm-poll-puts-yes-camp-ahead-by-8-x.25322075
He may be a disaster for Labour but a slippery snake like wEirD can still hoodwink voters. He is adept at shifting the sands. In the end the media will expose him ruthlessly and his undoing should be the simple fact that he comes across as, well, just weird. Ultimately weird people don't win General Elections in the media age, even the reasonable ones like Michael Howard.
In fact I imagine the activities of the extreme socialists on behalf of the Nats probably pushed the vote to a bigger No.
Milibands activities look all too obviously biased and self serving to me.
Bah ....
@JGForsyth: Tory Ministers clear that if Labour will not agree to more powers for England, then the Scottish schedule is off. http://t.co/FokWltv4qn
My pre-race piece for Singapore is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/singapore-pre-race.html
Bad news is the 10.5 for Ricciardo to win (hedged at 4) is no longer available. The good news is that if you backed it yesterday evening you could opt for a low odds but risk free bet by hedging now at just over 9.
Their notes would then have to be sent to the selected service, and an appoinment made.
The patient decided they woud rather be driven 25 miles to the original physio department.
Seems a great deal of bureaucracy to me. A great deal more than before the reforms.
The Oldies have protected their own self interests and now what to kill the golden goose of immigration that has funded their gold plated pensions and really screw the Grand Kids
Those that have taken all the money and screwed the young and think its the foreigners fault will continue to choose Governments that will keep this status quo to social unrest and beyond.
How did you get on with MCARSE?
cameron has won the indirf and turned the result onto EV4EL which is the right way to address the WLQ. He has doen the right thing.
We need a referendum on the EU - he would deliver one. It matters not what the esult of the negotiations are (I hope its successful) mthe point is the public can see and judge.
he would give one.
But still you find excuses to complain.
It would be wrong to run on the status quo because despite UKIP it would prpbably be won (whilst destroying the tory party in the ) that in fact would put our ability to negotiate our new position at risk. IF we are to end up staing in the EU we DO need to renegotiate our position we do not want to be left in and faced with being powerless to resist change. And following negotiations we have our referendum anyway.
Despite the constant wailings of people like you - Cameron is no fool. And unlike Labour he has Britain's best interest at heart.
Those bags under the eyes looking darker.
The Scots don;t care what government we get in England, if they have autonomy. Only labour do.
Incidentally, after indyref, devomax and ev4el, Welsh politicians are raising the question of historic underfunding.
See Conservative MP Guto Bebb just this morning:
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/guto-bebb-mp-my-concern-as-a-welsh-mp-about-promises-made-to-scotland-during-the-referendum-campaign.html
I see at PP it is now 7/4 at Watford. I am not tempted by that. Indeed 9/4 on Con is looking value as they do hold the seat and may have split opposition.
so we will definitely not allow EV4EL...
Minimum wage 2014 = 6.50
Add 3% (compounded) pa and the rates would be:
2015 6.69
2016 6.89
2017 7.10
2018 7.31
2019 7.53
2020 7.76
So Labour think 24p above an annual increase of 3% on the minimum wage over a 6 year period is progress for the lowest paid.
Oh dear.
Sort Scotland first.
Ed doesn't want the English to have the same rights as Scots...
Brave stance