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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

fitalass

I am going to predict a comfortable Tory hold in Watford at the next GE, and because a very strong local Libdem candidate in this seat is only ever going to achieve a split in the Libdem/Labour vote where it matters,

MarqueeMark

Strong local candidate let down by a weak national party.

What was the turnout at the locals Mike? Those that did vote this May may represent a sizeable chunk of the pool of available LibDems next May.....

JackW

I never thought OGH was a friend of Dorothy ....

Titter ....

OldKingCole

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

JosiasJessop

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

There are opportunities and risks for all the parties. The biggest opportunity is probably for UKIP who, having no Westminster MPs, can afford to proceed robustly. The Lib Dems frankly have other problems, although the runes look as though they're in favour of EVEL despite their Scottish MPs. For the Conservatives, there are obvious opportunities but also risks from a fractious and querulous backbench community.

The lowest opportunities and biggest risks appear for Labour. Whilst the WLQ is not currently a high-profile issue to the public, it does not take much media pressure for it to become so. This is particularly a problem for Miliband, who does not hesitate to scream about fairness in other issues, yet is willing to let unfairness continue when it advantages him. Worse, his proposed solution is an obvious delaying tactic, already has an answer defined, and is easy to paint as ridiculous.

All it needs for Labour to take a real hit is for the other parties and the media to raise the issue's profile.

As an aside, we had some (English) friends visit yesterday who are not normally political. They both stayed up from four in the morning to watch the referendum results come in, despite work the next day. The referendum connected with them, and they knew about the vow. There may be an opening for the 'unfairness' meme to stick.

I wonder what the viewing figures for the referendum TV shows were?

edmundintokyo

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

Cameron's heading for the same "Death or Bongo" move on the EU. He says he'll have a referendum to put the matter to rest, but then he's scared to run on the actual status quo, so instead of letting people vote on that he makes up a vague middle way the substance of which won't actually be known at the time of the referendum. That means even if he wins the referendum it's only settled temporarily, because the losing side will rightly say that the voters never voted for what they actually end up with.

chestnut

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

Alanbrooke

Emma Reynolds - what a muppet.

FluffyThoughts

Can I propose a new Scottish national anthem, perchance...?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBkTUzKAiXQ

I think it summarises Scots' perceptions nicely....

Freggles

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Gadfly

Averaged chart of YouGov polls since the 2010 general election...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/b0p8qsmjp1ab8ac/YouGov polls since 2010GE.jpg#

sqwawk

Freggles said:

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Can't see it as stopping him getting elected....but can see it being absolutely disastrous for him and Labour as and when they encounter the normal trails and tribulations of a Government....particularly one without money. Those ratings mean no honeymoon whatsoever, and a rapid move to divorce should the going get tricky.

RochdalePioneers

Have to be honest, the fate of the yellow pox in Watford wasn't the first thing I considered in the aftermath of the referendum....

MarqueeMark

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

Alanbrooke

MarqueeMark said:

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

It's certainly interesting to watch Miliband avoid policies and scrutiny, he appears to be under the impression he can avoid saying anything before May.

Innocent_Abroad

sqwawk said:

Freggles said:

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Can't see it as stopping him getting elected....but can see it being absolutely disastrous for him and Labour as and when they encounter the normal trails and tribulations of a Government....particularly one without money. Those ratings mean no honeymoon whatsoever, and a rapid move to divorce should the going get tricky.

I agree.

Labour is an idea whose time has gone. People don't see an end to austerity, not least because they have lost faith in themselves. "Social justice" is increasingly seen as a means of transferring wealth from young people to oldies. Any society that does that impoverishes itself (or at least that's the historical record) - the valleys of South Wales may merely be a few years ahead of the rest of western Europe.

It's a kind of self-harm for me to say so, but I am beginning to think we need a maximum as well as a minimum voting age!

MarqueeMark

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

It's certainly interesting to watch Miliband avoid policies and scrutiny, he appears to be under the impression he can avoid saying anything before May.

Following the debacle of his Scottish performance, I have now uprated my estimate of Labour having a truly disastrous, once in a political generation bite-your-fist horror show of an election campaign to 25%-30%....

Innocent_Abroad

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

It's certainly interesting to watch Miliband avoid policies and scrutiny, he appears to be under the impression he can avoid saying anything before May.

Following the debacle of his Scottish performance, I have now uprated my estimate of Labour having a truly disastrous, once in a political generation bite-your-fist horror show of an election campaign to 25%-30%....

Certainly his opponents will have taken note of what happened in Edinburgh. Can a man who cannot even conduct a walkabout without the Police advising him to abandon it be trusted to govern England? That's what his opponents will be saying.

Mob rule here we come...

Alanbrooke

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

It's certainly interesting to watch Miliband avoid policies and scrutiny, he appears to be under the impression he can avoid saying anything before May.

Following the debacle of his Scottish performance, I have now uprated my estimate of Labour having a truly disastrous, once in a political generation bite-your-fist horror show of an election campaign to 25%-30%....

Certainly his opponents will have taken note of what happened in Edinburgh. Can a man who cannot even conduct a walkabout without the Police advising him to abandon it be trusted to govern England? That's what his opponents will be saying.

Mob rule here we come...

Imagine the chaos if he'd been mobbed by bacon sandwiches.

RochdalePioneers

To be fair, it wasn't specifically a Milliband issue. The militant wing of the Nats were screaming down everyone from England, everyone who wasn't a nat, and anyone they decided was an Enemy of Scotland.

OldKingCole

I suppose it’s not possible that at the end of their conference the LibDems will have done something radical; either dump Clegg as leader or split?
Incidentally, Danny Alexander seems to have had a “good referendum”.

MikeSmithson

RochdalePioneers said:

Have to be honest, the fate of the yellow pox in Watford wasn't the first thing I considered in the aftermath of the referendum....

The site is called Politicalbetting.Com and this a good political betting tip. The 5/2 won't remain

Innocent_Abroad

RochdalePioneers said:

To be fair, it wasn't specifically a Milliband issue. The militant wing of the Nats were screaming down everyone from England, everyone who wasn't a nat, and anyone they decided was an Enemy of Scotland.

And UKIP won't have a "militant wing"? And the Tories won't wring their hands and say how dreadful it all is whilst privately regarding it the way a cat does cream?

You know the answers to these questions as well as I do, RP...

FluffyThoughts

MikeSmithson said:

The site is called Politicalbetting.Com and this a good political betting tip. The 5/2 won't remain

So can you offer any good odds on which January Leveson will be implemented? I know a fair few puntahs have betted on the wrong one in the past.... :~

JosiasJessop

RochdalePioneers said:

To be fair, it wasn't specifically a Milliband issue. The militant wing of the Nats were screaming down everyone from England, everyone who wasn't a nat, and anyone they decided was an Enemy of Scotland.

And hilariously, some of those same nats are now proclaiming themselves as being 'no longer Scottish'. So the great defenders of Scotland, when it turns out the majority of their countrymen do not agree with them, say they are not Scottish.

It's like they've decided that the 'no true Scotsman' fallacy is true for the entirety of Scotland, and therefore withdraw themselves from it.

SquareRoot

There is a bit of a lefty loon from the valleys who turns up on R2 Jeremy Vine as a voxpop from time to time.
According to him everything in the world is wrong since Maggie Thatcher became PM, yet he describes Miliband as about as much use as "a boil on the scrotum".. If that's what Labour voters think...

Blue_rog

MikeSmithson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Have to be honest, the fate of the yellow pox in Watford wasn't the first thing I considered in the aftermath of the referendum....

The site is called Politicalbetting.Com and this a good political betting tip. The 5/2 won't remain

7.4 now :-(

DavidL

I have resigned myself to the idea that my bet with iSam that the Lib Dems are going to outpoll UKIP is likely to be a loser. It now looks to me as if the Lib Dems might well poll something around 10%. If that is right one of the stories of the campaign is going to be their impending melt down which will create waves of negative publicity for all their candidates. She is undoubtedly a strong candidate and will do better than most Lib Dems but winning is really pushing it.

DecrepitJohnL

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. The only comments I've heard while commuting in London are variants on, "they should ask us if we still want Scotland". The whole EV4EL thing has not registered, despite the best efforts of some posters here, although it is very early days and might depend on whether the papers and telly run with it.

nigel4england

fitalass said:

I am going to predict a comfortable Tory hold in Watford at the next GE, and because a very strong local Libdem candidate in this seat is only ever going to achieve a split in the Libdem/Labour vote where it matters,

I agree totally, I can't see Lib Dem gains anywhere to be honest.

The 11/2 Mike took is a value bet but I wouldn't be taking 7/2, and we have yet to see for certain how they will go with EV4EL, I certainly wouldn't trust anything Clegg has said so far.

nigel4england

Ivanovic to be carded against City this afternoon is a great bet, David Silva will drive him mad.

2.88 with Victor or 3.2 with Unibet, where I do not have an account. Has anyone got an account with them and if so are they OK?

FluffyThoughts

Does DavidL know this geezer?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VqpQclCnb6s

Legal arguments are correct. Shame that the Scots were too educated to recognise and recognised this....

Edited: Semantically more accurate....

JosiasJessop

SquareRoot said:

There is a bit of a lefty loon from the valleys who turns up on R2 Jeremy Vine as a voxpop from time to time.
According to him everything in the world is wrong since Maggie Thatcher became PM, yet he describes Miliband as about as much use as "a boil on the scrotum".. If that's what Labour voters think...

There must be questions about how well Labour's GOTV operation will perform if Miliband is judged this poorly by traditional Labour voters next May. Wrongly IMHO many voters treat a GE as a presidential election, and will Labour supporters really be willing to drag themselves to the polling station for Miliband?

Although many such voters may be in traditional Labour safe seats where the vote is weighed rather than counted, and Labour voters in marginals may be more inclined to vote against the Conservatives.

I can't see it not being a factor, but perhaps not a GE-losing one. Might Miliband win the election on a record low percentage vote? In fact, what is the current record low percentage vote for a winning party?

DavidL

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

isam

nigel4england said:

Ivanovic to be carded against City this afternoon is a great bet, David Silva will drive him mad.

2.88 with Victor or 3.2 with Unibet, where I do not have an account. Has anyone got an account with them and if so are they OK?

They are ok as far as they are reputable. I think 888 use the same odds

OldKingCole

DecrepitJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. The only comments I've heard while commuting in London are variants on, "they should ask us if we still want Scotland". The whole EV4EL thing has not registered, despite the best efforts of some posters here, although it is very early days and might depend on whether the papers and telly run with it.

Hmm. I’ve heard quite a lot of those, agreed but I‘ve also heard quite a lot on “Why should they have all that money and not us” or words to that effect.
I think it’s getting through but, as you rightly say, it depends on whether the Press runs with it. As it seems as though UKIP is going to, I don’t think ity’ll be forgotten.

Innocent_Abroad

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

You can be sure that the Party will have conducted private polls to find out if it would do better or worse under Harriet Herself...

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

SquareRoot

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

You can be sure that the Party will have conducted private polls to find out if it would do better or worse under Harriet Herself...

No need for a poll. They are bereft of any leadership. Hattie would be hopeless. Doggie. oops Doogie (not a bad typo actually ) hopeless. Chucka oh dear .. there is only Darling who carries any type of authority and gravitas.

Never mind ... IOS assures us that the Labour GOTV is all that matters, the Tories are fecked.. nothing can go wrong till the coronation of ED.

SouthamObserver

There is no doubt in my mind that EdM is a drag on the Labour vote. He was on TV regularly during the Euro and local election campaign and Labour did poorly. He went to Scotland and No lost Glasgow! He comes across very badly, his leadership is poor and he has no powerbase inside Labour - something that distinguishes him from every leader that preceded him.

Given all that, it is extraordinary that with just months to go the Tories - with their relatively popular leader - have not established a winning opinion poll lead. They really need to find a magic wand to win those UKIPers back. EV4EL is clearly the latest attempt to do that. The problem is that the one demographic which seems to strongly dislike Dave is the UKIP one.

chestnut

Freggles said:

The one with the five point lead?

When was the last time Labour actually performed to their poll position?

In the Euros the range of overstatement of the Lab-Tory gap was 2.5 to 5.5%.

Miliband's ratings are terrible.

It's one thing to say you're Labour when your opinion is solicited, it's another to drag yourself off to vote. We've just seen that in Scotland with the YES revolution that didn't materialise.

JackW

The selection of Dorothy Thornhill as the LibDem PPC changes the dynamic of this seat vastly. PBers would do well to note her continuing electoral success, most recently when nationally team yellow have been scoring poorly.

Any price north of 1/2 on is value.

DavidL

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

You can be sure that the Party will have conducted private polls to find out if it would do better or worse under Harriet Herself...

Andy Burnham came to Dundee and struck me as nice but ineffectual. If the party wanted some fire in their soul and to protect those Glasgow and Lanarkshire seats they could do a lot worse than Murphy. David Cameron would find him a handful and the helicopter incident is good backstory stuff.

It is also worth remembering just how many Labour staffers were in Scotland latterly doing good work for No. They all saw this at first hand and the word will have gone back south of the border with them.

JosiasJessop

JosiasJessop said:

SquareRoot said:

There is a bit of a lefty loon from the valleys who turns up on R2 Jeremy Vine as a voxpop from time to time.
According to him everything in the world is wrong since Maggie Thatcher became PM, yet he describes Miliband as about as much use as "a boil on the scrotum".. If that's what Labour voters think...

There must be questions about how well Labour's GOTV operation will perform if Miliband is judged this poorly by traditional Labour voters next May. Wrongly IMHO many voters treat a GE as a presidential election, and will Labour supporters really be willing to drag themselves to the polling station for Miliband?

Although many such voters may be in traditional Labour safe seats where the vote is weighed rather than counted, and Labour voters in marginals may be more inclined to vote against the Conservatives.

I can't see it not being a factor, but perhaps not a GE-losing one. Might Miliband win the election on a record low percentage vote? In fact, what is the current record low percentage vote for a winning party?

I've just been on Wiki, and to answer my own question, post-war it seems that it was Blair's 2005 win at 35.2%.

NickPalmer

It's only a subsample but SNP support has collapsed to 17% in today's YG - both Lab and Con benefiting. Gordon Brown has opened up a clear lead as "best First Minister". And a series of questions about preferred PM for a range of issues puts Miliband ahead of Cameron on heath, education, benefits, and the environmnet, and tied on Europe - he's behind on the economy, defence and law and order. His general ratings remain poor but it doesn't seem to be undermining voting intention.

The key, I think, is that on "who do you most trust", the runaway winner is "nobody", with Cameron ahead by just 6 on 22-16 (Farage gets 12, Clegg 4). People aren't voting on leaders this time.

SouthamObserver

DecrepitJohnL said:

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. The only comments I've heard while commuting in London are variants on, "they should ask us if we still want Scotland". The whole EV4EL thing has not registered, despite the best efforts of some posters here, although it is very early days and might depend on whether the papers and telly run with it.

I doubt EV4EL will switch many Labour votes. The Tory push on this is aimed at the UKIP inclined.

Scott_P

Wow.

Ed seems determined to lose England

@dizzy_thinks: Who knew @Ed_Miliband would put a desire for power ahead of the entire nation of England?

while others want to lose Scotland

@gavinboyd2012: .@PickardJE HT @WingsScotland: Jack Straw calls for Scottish independence to be made illegal http://t.co/WjAYPPzsM9 Lab finished in Scot

JosiasJessop

NickPalmer said:

It's only a subsample but SNP support has collapsed to 17% in today's YG - both Lab and Con benefiting. Gordon Brown has opened up a clear lead as "best First Minister". And a series of questions about preferred PM for a range of issues puts Miliband ahead of Cameron on heath, education, benefits, and the environmnet, and tied on Europe - he's behind on the economy, defence and law and order. His general ratings remain poor but it doesn't seem to be undermining voting intention.

The key, I think, is that on "who do you most trust", the runaway winner is "nobody", with Cameron ahead by just 6 on 22-16 (Farage gets 12, Clegg 4). People aren't voting on leaders this time.

You hope.

Rexel56

Shame, I was looking forward to the first question: "Mr Milliband, how much money will you be saving by abolishing the Low Pay Commission?"

eristdoof

"Although the parliamentary seat is not quite contiguous with the local authority area it mostly is there."

I think you've misunderstood the meaning of contiguous. Wales and England are contiguous, Wales and Scotland are not.

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

Flightpath

Scott_P said:

Wow.

Ed seems determined to lose England

@dizzy_thinks: Who knew @Ed_Miliband would put a desire for power ahead of the entire nation of England?

while others want to lose Scotland

@gavinboyd2012: .@PickardJE HT @WingsScotland: Jack Straw calls for Scottish independence to be made illegal http://t.co/WjAYPPzsM9 Lab finished in Scot

Scott_P said:

Wow.

Ed seems determined to lose England

@dizzy_thinks: Who knew @Ed_Miliband would put a desire for power ahead of the entire nation of England?

while others want to lose Scotland

@gavinboyd2012: .@PickardJE HT @WingsScotland: Jack Straw calls for Scottish independence to be made illegal http://t.co/WjAYPPzsM9 Lab finished in Scot

I think most constitutions allw for themselves not to be broken up. 600,000 Americans died for that principle.
In reality we (the whole UK) could have voted not to allow the 'indyref' in the first place even without a law.
In point of fact the real issue Straw raised was his and Labour's wish not to allow EV4EL.

nigel4england

isam said:

nigel4england said:

Ivanovic to be carded against City this afternoon is a great bet, David Silva will drive him mad.

2.88 with Victor or 3.2 with Unibet, where I do not have an account. Has anyone got an account with them and if so are they OK?

They are ok as far as they are reputable. I think 888 use the same odds

Thanks Isam, I tend to stick with the main bookies here and the exchanges but may venture further afield.

My plan is to dutch Ivanovic with Ramires if he starts, pays 1.34 if one of them gets booked and 2.67 if they both do.

DavidL

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is any chance of Labour chucking him out. The question is whether he is at all minded to stand down for the good of the party. Up until now this seemed vanishingly unlikely but now I think it just might be an outside chance.

volcanopete

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

chestnut

The SNP are on 31% in today's Yougov, aren't they?

OldKingCole

SquareRoot said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

You can be sure that the Party will have conducted private polls to find out if it would do better or worse under Harriet Herself...

No need for a poll. They are bereft of any leadership. Hattie would be hopeless. Doggie. oops Doogie (not a bad typo actually ) hopeless. Chucka oh dear .. there is only Darling who carries any type of authority and gravitas.

Never mind ... IOS assures us that the Labour GOTV is all that matters, the Tories are fecked.. nothing can go wrong till the coronation of ED.

Comeback for Gordon?

Scott_P

@steve_hawkes: Tories bombard Sunday papers at start of Labour Conference to push English Votes for English Laws. PM demands EdM explains his go-slow

@steve_hawkes: Labour bombard Sunday papers to talk £8 an hour min wage (by 2020), housing, schools, cost-of-living.. Anything but Scotland

MarkSenior

On topic ,
Looking at the 2010 results for Watford parliamentary , council and mayoral results which were held all on the same day gives some indication of Dorothy Thornhill's personal vote .
The council and mayoral results are contiguous , the parliamentary results include some areas outside Watford council area .

Lib Dem parliamentary vote GE 17,866
Lib Dem council vote 16,361
Dorothy Thornhill mayoral vote 19,153

Conservative parliamentary vote GE 19,291
Conservative council vote 12,934
Conservative mayoral vote 10.403

Labour parliamentary vote GE 14,750
Labour council vote 10,769
Labour mayoral vote 10,029

Green parliamentary vote GE 885
Green council vote 3,040
Green mayoral vote 2,173

Scott_P

@David_Cameron: Why the rest of the UK must have the same powers that we are rightfully devolving to the people of Scotland: https://t.co/Cb1oqLKYdT

Subtitle. Ed, come ahead if you think you're hard enough...

Innocent_Abroad

Off topic! Someone yesterday said that there was a Referendum poll showing an 8% lead for YES. Having just read Peter Kellner's witty "round robin" e-mail for to-day, which doesn't mention it, can anyone please give me a source for it? Or was it a product of an over-heated imagination?

Flightpath

DavidL said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

You can be sure that the Party will have conducted private polls to find out if it would do better or worse under Harriet Herself...

Andy Burnham came to Dundee and struck me as nice but ineffectual. If the party wanted some fire in their soul and to protect those Glasgow and Lanarkshire seats they could do a lot worse than Murphy. David Cameron would find him a handful and the helicopter incident is good backstory stuff.

It is also worth remembering just how many Labour staffers were in Scotland latterly doing good work for No. They all saw this at first hand and the word will have gone back south of the border with them.

And following more devolution for Scotland will the rest of the country vote for a Scottish PM? A Scottish PM actively committed to allow Scottish MPs to vote on English only matters? And perhaps more to the point can we trust a Scotish Labour PM to make a fair judgement on English only matters?
This is not a judgement on Scotland. I like Scotland. It is a judgement on the Labour Party and its reliance on Scottish MPs and the effects of devolution. With no devolution I would not have a problem with any Scottish PM in respect of their background,

JackW

volcanopete said:

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

You mean it'll be difficult for a Coalition supporter to explain to Watford voters why they spent more on the NHS than Labour wanted and who called the additional NHS spending "reckless"

In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....

Oopps ....

Gaius

sqwawk said:

Freggles said:

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Can't see it as stopping him getting elected....but can see it being absolutely disastrous for him and Labour as and when they encounter the normal trails and tribulations of a Government....particularly one without money. Those ratings mean no honeymoon whatsoever, and a rapid move to divorce should the going get tricky.

I was out canvassing yesterday and there is absolutely no enthusiasm for labour from previously labour voters.

And Milliband wont be able to get through a GE campaign with no media presence or policies.

Suppose labour dont win the next GE. The coalition will be more than happy to carry on and UKIP will pick up former labour voters.

Suppose labour manage to win the GE despite Ed, the rich wont be taxed more, the middle cant be, and the working class dont pay tax anyway. So massive austerity will happen that will rip the labour party apart and finally destroy the tribalism that holds their electoral support together.

This is not going to end well for weird Ed. Or labour.

SquareRoot

Ed's going to be the goalkeeper who threw the ball into his own net. its been done before.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TOgB3Smvro

JosiasJessop

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

Indeed. But as noted below, it certainly appears as though Miliband is a drag on Labour's vote in elections. Will Labour-inclined voters really want to take themselves to the polls to vote for him? NPXMP certainly seems to think it doesn't matter, which seems like a bit of wishful thinking on his part.

As an aside, the one election I failed to vote in was the 2005 GE. I was walking in Scotland, and none of my candidates particularly inspire me. Worse, neither Blair, Howard or Kennedy were people I would instinctively give my vote. So I did not get a PV, put my head down and climbed the hills.

I wonder if anyone on here has read this book:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2012/04/08/book-review-platform-or-personality-the-role-of-party-leaders-in-elections/

Artist

The interesting thing about the Ashcroft poll is that the standard voting intention for Watford is Con 31 Lab 29 LD 14 but the constituency voting intention is Con 29 Lab 25 LD 24. This shows a lot of people in Watford assume the LIb Dems are best placed to take the seat over Labour as they finished second last time, this selection should help further.

foxinsoxuk

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

It would have to be a quick election were Miliband to step down. Realistically a coronation, but there would be time for a ballot.

Harriet is deputy, has good union links and Dave finds women harder to deal with. 33/1 with Shadsy.

I see that Shadsy has taken down his constituency markets for a bit of revision, apart from PP are there any others? I may have a little flutter on Watford.

DecrepitJohnL

JackW said:

volcanopete said:

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

You mean it'll be difficult for a Coalition supporter to explain to Watford voters why they spent more on the NHS than Labour wanted and who called the additional NHS spending "reckless"

In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....

Oopps ....

Watford voters will know whether the local hospitals have got better or worse and all parties will be wasting their time trying to disabuse them with tractor stats.

edmundintokyo

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is any chance of Labour chucking him out. The question is whether he is at all minded to stand down for the good of the party. Up until now this seemed vanishingly unlikely but now I think it just might be an outside chance.

The same considerations apply and then some.

TheScreamingEagles

Innocent_Abroad said:

Off topic! Someone yesterday said that there was a Referendum poll showing an 8% lead for YES. Having just read Peter Kellner's witty "round robin" e-mail for to-day, which doesn't mention it, can anyone please give me a source for it? Or was it a product of an over-heated imagination?

Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8%

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/latest-icm-poll-puts-yes-camp-ahead-by-8-x.25322075

audreyanne

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is any chance of Labour chucking him out. The question is whether he is at all minded to stand down for the good of the party. Up until now this seemed vanishingly unlikely but now I think it just might be an outside chance.

There is not one scrap, iota, scintilla, chance of wEirD standing down. He shafted his own brother to get to the top and he's not going to give it up.

He may be a disaster for Labour but a slippery snake like wEirD can still hoodwink voters. He is adept at shifting the sands. In the end the media will expose him ruthlessly and his undoing should be the simple fact that he comes across as, well, just weird. Ultimately weird people don't win General Elections in the media age, even the reasonable ones like Michael Howard.

Flightpath

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

So Ed Miliband has pulled out of the big pre-conference TV interview today?

I wonder if this is because he is ill - or ill-prepared to answer a raft of questions on Labour's policies they will be taking into the General Election. Questions like: where are your policies Mr Miliband?

It's certainly interesting to watch Miliband avoid policies and scrutiny, he appears to be under the impression he can avoid saying anything before May.

Following the debacle of his Scottish performance, I have now uprated my estimate of Labour having a truly disastrous, once in a political generation bite-your-fist horror show of an election campaign to 25%-30%....

Certainly his opponents will have taken note of what happened in Edinburgh. Can a man who cannot even conduct a walkabout without the Police advising him to abandon it be trusted to govern England? That's what his opponents will be saying.

Mob rule here we come...

Miliband's comments post referendum have all been about trying to twist a vote for No Change into a demand for not only change all across the country but for socialist change - with the exception of 'English Votes' in parliament.
In fact I imagine the activities of the extreme socialists on behalf of the Nats probably pushed the vote to a bigger No.
Milibands activities look all too obviously biased and self serving to me.

taffys

Despite Milli's terrible performance, labour is still doing OK in the polls. There's something strange going on somewhere

JackW

DecrepitJohnL said:

JackW said:

volcanopete said:

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

You mean it'll be difficult for a Coalition supporter to explain to Watford voters why they spent more on the NHS than Labour wanted and who called the additional NHS spending "reckless"

In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....

Oopps ....

Watford voters will know whether the local hospitals have got better or worse and all parties will be wasting their time trying to disabuse them with tractor stats.

Hertfordshire NHS tend to use ambulances. Things are worse than I thought if the Welsh NHS is using tractors. Presumably the sheep assist in the wards too ??

Bah ....

Scott_P

@politicshome: .@TogetherDarling on Scots devo pledge: “The agreement reached by the three parties, as far as I’m concerned, is non-negotiable” #marr

@JGForsyth: Tory Ministers clear that if Labour will not agree to more powers for England, then the Scottish schedule is off. http://t.co/FokWltv4qn

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

My pre-race piece for Singapore is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/singapore-pre-race.html

Bad news is the 10.5 for Ricciardo to win (hedged at 4) is no longer available. The good news is that if you backed it yesterday evening you could opt for a low odds but risk free bet by hedging now at just over 9.

DecrepitJohnL

Gaius said:

Suppose labour manage to win the GE despite Ed, the rich wont be taxed more, the middle cant be, and the working class dont pay tax anyway. So massive austerity will happen that will rip the labour party apart and finally destroy the tribalism that holds their electoral support together.

This is not going to end well for weird Ed. Or labour.

The working class don't pay tax? I fear you have confused them with the billion pound corporations that sell phones to the working class.

ThomasNashe

Scott_P said:

@steve_hawkes: Tories bombard Sunday papers at start of Labour Conference to push English Votes for English Laws. PM demands EdM explains his go-slow

@steve_hawkes: Labour bombard Sunday papers to talk £8 an hour min wage (by 2020), housing, schools, cost-of-living.. Anything but Scotland

I don't disagree that Ed's recent performance has been lamentable. However, when you ask yourself which of these two issues is likely to connect with floating voters and the disengaged, I think an increase in the minimum wage is going to have much more traction. I feel that EVfEL is like Europe, an issue that energises the base but bores the majority.

OldKingCole

On the NHS, odd story. Friend of mine had an accident (broken bone) away from home, although not too far. Taken to hospital, sorted out, told they’d need physio. However, they couldn’t be transferred to their nearest physio service without the consent of their GP. The physio department would have to write (and the word used was write) to my friend’s GP, my friend would have to be called, when the letter arrived, to see their GP and a decision made on which local physio service to use.
Their notes would then have to be sent to the selected service, and an appoinment made.

The patient decided they woud rather be driven 25 miles to the original physio department.

Seems a great deal of bureaucracy to me. A great deal more than before the reforms.

bigjohnowls

Innocent_Abroad said:

sqwawk said:

Freggles said:

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Can't see it as stopping him getting elected....but can see it being absolutely disastrous for him and Labour as and when they encounter the normal trails and tribulations of a Government....particularly one without money. Those ratings mean no honeymoon whatsoever, and a rapid move to divorce should the going get tricky.

I agree.

Labour is an idea whose time has gone. People don't see an end to austerity, not least because they have lost faith in themselves. "Social justice" is increasingly seen as a means of transferring wealth from young people to oldies. Any society that does that impoverishes itself (or at least that's the historical record) - the valleys of South Wales may merely be a few years ahead of the rest of western Europe.

It's a kind of self-harm for me to say so, but I am beginning to think we need a maximum as well as a minimum voting age!

Bloody Hell I woke up thinking exactly your last comment this morning.

The Oldies have protected their own self interests and now what to kill the golden goose of immigration that has funded their gold plated pensions and really screw the Grand Kids

Those that have taken all the money and screwed the young and think its the foreigners fault will continue to choose Governments that will keep this status quo to social unrest and beyond.

bigjohnowls

JackW said:

volcanopete said:

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

You mean it'll be difficult for a Coalition supporter to explain to Watford voters why they spent more on the NHS than Labour wanted and who called the additional NHS spending "reckless"

In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....

Oopps ....

JackW

How did you get on with MCARSE?

Flightpath

edmundintokyo said:

OldKingCole said:

Has the Scottish Referendum upset politics at a crucial stage? I have never heard so many “ordinary” people commenting on political issues, with the main topic the relationship between Scotland in particular and England.

Personally I think that a panicky “Vow” in a late stage in the campaign will come back to haunt our political leaders, as they ..... we? ..... have only a few months to hammer out some sort of proposals before the General Election, and all parties are going to have one eye on their own interests during the next few months.

Cameron's heading for the same "Death or Bongo" move on the EU. He says he'll have a referendum to put the matter to rest, but then he's scared to run on the actual status quo, so instead of letting people vote on that he makes up a vague middle way the substance of which won't actually be known at the time of the referendum. That means even if he wins the referendum it's only settled temporarily, because the losing side will rightly say that the voters never voted for what they actually end up with.

This is more myopia I am afraid.
cameron has won the indirf and turned the result onto EV4EL which is the right way to address the WLQ. He has doen the right thing.

We need a referendum on the EU - he would deliver one. It matters not what the esult of the negotiations are (I hope its successful) mthe point is the public can see and judge.
he would give one.

But still you find excuses to complain.

It would be wrong to run on the status quo because despite UKIP it would prpbably be won (whilst destroying the tory party in the ) that in fact would put our ability to negotiate our new position at risk. IF we are to end up staing in the EU we DO need to renegotiate our position we do not want to be left in and faced with being powerless to resist change. And following negotiations we have our referendum anyway.
Despite the constant wailings of people like you - Cameron is no fool. And unlike Labour he has Britain's best interest at heart.

bigjohnowls

Gaius said:

sqwawk said:

Freggles said:

chestYoungnut said:

The Miliband ratings in this morning's YouGov are absolutely horrendous. He is now held in worse regard in Scotland than in England.

It simply seems inconceivable that such a poorly regarded leader could ever win a General Election.

The one with the five point lead?

Can't see it as stopping him getting elected....but can see it being absolutely disastrous for him and Labour as and when they encounter the normal trails and tribulations of a Government....particularly one without money. Those ratings mean no honeymoon whatsoever, and a rapid move to divorce should the going get tricky.

I was out canvassing yesterday and there is absolutely no enthusiasm for labour from previously labour voters.

And Milliband wont be able to get through a GE campaign with no media presence or policies.

Suppose labour dont win the next GE. The coalition will be more than happy to carry on and UKIP will pick up former labour voters.

Suppose labour manage to win the GE despite Ed, the rich wont be taxed more, the middle cant be, and the working class dont pay tax anyway. So massive austerity will happen that will rip the labour party apart and finally destroy the tribalism that holds their electoral support together.

This is not going to end well for weird Ed. Or labour.

Who were you canvassing for?

JackW

Ed on Marr presently.

Those bags under the eyes looking darker.

Innocent_Abroad

audreyanne said:

DavidL said:

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

Ed's performance in Scotland was truly shockingly bad. It was a rough old campaign with pretty much everyone on the no side being sworn at and threatened repeatedly with verbal violence (not that this amounted to much in reality). Ed really didn't like it. Now he is withdrawing from really important interviews which should be setting the tone for his conference. Are we missing a story here?

The conference should be a triumph as well as a launch for the GE but I really wonder if a party that lost Glasgow thinks they have much to celebrate. The activists I was working alongside were supremely confident about winning Glasgow and had internal polling to support it. Scottish Labour will be in shock.

Is a change of leader for Labour still a possibility? Would Ed who in fact turned out to have no stomach for the fight and departed stand down? It strikes me as a better bet than a Lib Dem gain, that is for sure.

Who would replace Miliband? The PLP are still suffering from the effects of the Brown-Blair feuds, and the resultant purge of Blairites. I cannot see a credible candidate who could take over this near to an election. They're all either unknowns, are too left-wing or have got poisoned legacies.

And who would the unions back?

Not to mention that it would be rather eccentric to replace a leader whose party lost the last election by 7%, and 9 months out from the next one is 5% ahead...

For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is any chance of Labour chucking him out. The question is whether he is at all minded to stand down for the good of the party. Up until now this seemed vanishingly unlikely but now I think it just might be an outside chance.

There is not one scrap, iota, scintilla, chance of wEirD standing down. He shafted his own brother to get to the top and he's not going to give it up.

He may be a disaster for Labour but a slippery snake like wEirD can still hoodwink voters. He is adept at shifting the sands. In the end the media will expose him ruthlessly and his undoing should be the simple fact that he comes across as, well, just weird. Ultimately weird people don't win General Elections in the media age, even the reasonable ones like Michael Howard.

AudreyAnne, why do you think David Miliband had the reversion of the Labour leadership? It wasn't in his gift, and after the election he congratulated Ed on his victory. Please explain. (At least you haven't called him a "fratricide" as someone else did...)

FluffyThoughts

bigjohnowls said:

Bloody Hell I woke up thinking exactly your last comment this morning.

The Oldies have protected their own self interests and now what to kill the golden goose of immigration that has funded their gold plated pensions and really screw the Grand Kids....

You are Satyr and I claim my five satirical notes....

taffys

It seems to me that Miliband's stance won't only be unpopular in England. It will also be very unpopular in Scotland.

The Scots don;t care what government we get in England, if they have autonomy. Only labour do.

DecrepitJohnL

JackW said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JackW said:

volcanopete said:

Impossible to argue with Mike's assessment,a reminder that local knowledge on the ground is essential in these important 3-ways.The NHS is likely to be a key issue and the L/D will have to find a way to deny her party's involvement in its fragmentation.Could be her achilles heel.

You mean it'll be difficult for a Coalition supporter to explain to Watford voters why they spent more on the NHS than Labour wanted and who called the additional NHS spending "reckless"

In contrast Watford Labour could always point to the success of the Welsh NHS ....

Oopps ....

Watford voters will know whether the local hospitals have got better or worse and all parties will be wasting their time trying to disabuse them with tractor stats.

Hertfordshire NHS tend to use ambulances. Things are worse than I thought if the Welsh NHS is using tractors. Presumably the sheep assist in the wards too ??

Bah ....

Very droll. Has the Conservative Party given up already on retaining its eight Welsh MPs?

Incidentally, after indyref, devomax and ev4el, Welsh politicians are raising the question of historic underfunding.

See Conservative MP Guto Bebb just this morning:
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/guto-bebb-mp-my-concern-as-a-welsh-mp-about-promises-made-to-scotland-during-the-referendum-campaign.html

JohnLilburne

I would have thought we were due a ComRes VI poll, but there's nothing on either their or the Independent's website

foxinsoxuk

OldKingCole said:

On the NHS, odd story. Friend of mine had an accident (broken bone) away from home, although not too far. Taken to hospital, sorted out, told they’d need physio. However, they couldn’t be transferred to their nearest physio service without the consent of their GP. The physio department would have to write (and the word used was write) to my friend’s GP, my friend would have to be called, when the letter arrived, to see their GP and a decision made on which local physio service to use.
Their notes would then have to be sent to the selected service, and an appoinment made.

The patient decided they woud rather be driven 25 miles to the original physio department.

Seems a great deal of bureaucracy to me. A great deal more than before the reforms.

It has been like that since Labour introduced Choose and Book, nothing to do with more recent "reforms".

I see at PP it is now 7/4 at Watford. I am not tempted by that. Indeed 9/4 on Con is looking value as they do hold the seat and may have split opposition.

Scott_P

@politicshome: Ed Miliband: Unless the establishment recognises this wake-up call... we are not going to address this discontent." #marr

so we will definitely not allow EV4EL...

philiph

Scott_P said:

@steve_hawkes: Tories bombard Sunday papers at start of Labour Conference to push English Votes for English Laws. PM demands EdM explains his go-slow

@steve_hawkes: Labour bombard Sunday papers to talk £8 an hour min wage (by 2020), housing, schools, cost-of-living.. Anything but Scotland

Labour don't understand ambition or numbers.

Minimum wage 2014 = 6.50
Add 3% (compounded) pa and the rates would be:
2015 6.69
2016 6.89
2017 7.10
2018 7.31
2019 7.53
2020 7.76

So Labour think 24p above an annual increase of 3% on the minimum wage over a 6 year period is progress for the lowest paid.

Oh dear.

Bob__Sykes

Evasive Ed getting slaughtered on Marr on EVEL

JohnLilburne

OldKingCole said:

On the NHS, odd story. Friend of mine had an accident (broken bone) away from home, although not too far. Taken to hospital, sorted out, told they’d need physio. However, they couldn’t be transferred to their nearest physio service without the consent of their GP. The physio department would have to write (and the word used was write) to my friend’s GP, my friend would have to be called, when the letter arrived, to see their GP and a decision made on which local physio service to use.
Their notes would then have to be sent to the selected service, and an appoinment made.

The patient decided they would rather be driven 25 miles to the original physio department.

Seems a great deal of bureaucracy to me. A great deal more than before the reforms.

He's lucky to get physio within six months, let alone a choice of two within 25 miles. Most people end up paying privately.

Bob__Sykes

However Cameron will get slaughtered if he refuses to deliver on The Vow by tying it up with EVEL.

Sort Scotland first.

philiph

ThomasNashe said:

Scott_P said:

@steve_hawkes: Tories bombard Sunday papers at start of Labour Conference to push English Votes for English Laws. PM demands EdM explains his go-slow

@steve_hawkes: Labour bombard Sunday papers to talk £8 an hour min wage (by 2020), housing, schools, cost-of-living.. Anything but Scotland

I don't disagree that Ed's recent performance has been lamentable. However, when you ask yourself which of these two issues is likely to connect with floating voters and the disengaged, I think an increase in the minimum wage is going to have much more traction. I feel that EVfEL is like Europe, an issue that energises the base but bores the majority.

Well the minimum wage pledge, as I show below is pathetic, lacks ambition, sense or incentive for the low paid.

Scott_P

@BBCAllegra: Miliband on #Marr sounding like he'll back McKay proposals "I am open to greater scrutiny of legislation by English MPs". McKay keeps Scots.

Ed doesn't want the English to have the same rights as Scots...

Brave stance

Scott_P

@paulwaugh: This sounds like it'll be Lab's stance: EdM wants 'greater scrutiny' allowed for English MPs on English matters. ie NOT barring Scots #marr