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As voting starts Truss still the strong next PM favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    Most grammars also have entry at 13 and 16 and they offer more choice in the state sector so fewer parents have to go private
    Theoretically they might but in practice they don’t.
  • DougSeal said:

    I’m old enough to remember when the PB Tories didn’t give Truss a hope in hell.

    She's winning because of low expectations.

    I still think she'll lead the Tories to a stepmom level defeat if she doesn't get a handle on the cost of living crisis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    It will, the Tories almost always win over 65s, even if they lose every other age bracket, the only time they ever lost pensioners was 1997.

    However even when we win majorities like 2015 and 2019 and win most voters over 35, most of our members are still over 65
    I think he means you will metamorphose from, as you say, Harry Enfield Toryboy to elderly greyhair.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    edited August 2022
    DougSeal said:

    I’m old enough to remember when the PB Tories didn’t give Truss a hope in hell.

    I've thought from the start that she had a seriously good chance.

    1) transfer friendly
    2) becomes the 'loyal to Boris' candidate
    3) tax cutting small state agenda

    Also I saw Mssrs Meeks and Herdson agreeing that she was value on Twitter.

    I can't remember the last time we all agreed about something betting wise. It seemed like an omen....
  • Oh it was IPSOS before, my mistake.
  • 4 point from Redfield suggests a tie is coming
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited August 2022

    As far as I know, they don’t have selection (and the flip-side, relegation) at 11, which to me is the defining feature of grammar schools.
    Well they do have selection, most German states have Gymnasium schools, which select from 10 based on GPA, teacher recommendation or examination. Same with Austria. Those who don't get into them go to Hauptschules

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gymnasium_(Germany)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671
    edited August 2022
    I did a damn stupid thing this weekend so really haven't been on PB much but have we covered this?

    Liz Truss is now only five points ahead of Rishi Sunak in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, private polling carried out for the foreign secretary’s campaign suggests.

    The survey, which concluded early last week, has support for Truss on 48 per cent compared with 43 per cent for the former chancellor, and 9 per cent of members who were questioned undecided.

    The poll is in contrast to the last YouGov survey carried out at the end of the knockout stages that suggested Truss had a 24-point lead over Sunak.

    Sources in the Sunak campaign claimed the shift reflected the feedback they had been getting on the ground suggesting that the race was much closer than had previously been thought.

    “It really hasn’t felt to us like Liz was doing as well as the polls have been suggesting. Wherever he goes he is getting really good feedback and an awful lot of people are still making up their minds.

    “This doesn’t feel like a re-run of 2019 [when Boris Johnson was convincingly ahead of Jeremy Hunt]. Liz’s support feels very soft.”

    The polling was carried out by the Italian data and public affairs firm Techne and asked Tory members their views on both candidates as well as their policy plans.

    Sources in the Truss camp said it had not been commissioned by them but confirmed it had been shared with the campaign.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-just-five-points-behind-liz-truss-in-latest-tory-leadership-poll-0p2b8nppv
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    Sunset walk up Yes Tor, Dartmoor. In the interests of balance, and to show that holidays sometime refuse to be picturesque:


    Slightly hairy at the top and I was glad of the backup of a map and compass. But the variability is part of the attraction, and it'll stick in the memory.

    Had to look it up - hadn't realised it is so near Meldon! But it does not look at all like an easy pinpoint to meet in the mist.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Yep. She has two years of proving what she can do before the next GE. Why risk throwing it all away by running for the electorate in October?

    She has had about 12 years in govt to prove that she can achieve anything of substance and, to date, her record appears to be rather unimpressive.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    edited August 2022

    JohnO is going to disown me but Truss is impressing me.

    I still think the cost of living crisis is going to dominate and destroy her premiership.

    Not at all. I (still) won't be voting for her but she hasn't done badly in this campaign.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    It’s fair to say she was underestimated: as a tactician, as a retail politician, and as a personality.
    What’s surprised me is how poor Sunak has been. I knew he was up against it, but he’s gone to pieces (watch him win now!).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    I think he means you will metamorphose from, as you say, Harry Enfield Toryboy to elderly greyhair.
    Yes but I am unusual in having always been Tory.

    If I was normal I would have usually voted Labour from 18 to 35, now be a swing voter at 40 and only normally vote Tory once I am well over 55
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    The only person who has actually been consistent is Bart.

    Everyone else has flip flopped from disaster Truss to how good she is.

    Not me.

    I have gone from thinking she did fine in the first debates and wondering why the audience (and PB) were so down on her, to thinking she’ll be a credible opponent for SKS.

    I confess I misjudged her ability to get to the final though, I thought there was a larger anti-Truss vote inside the PCP than there was.

    Having said that, we might anticipate already that party management will be a problem.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    The only person who has actually been consistent is Bart.

    Everyone else has flip flopped from disaster Truss to how good she is.

    A point of order Mr Speaker - I have consistently maintained that Ms Truss will not do much.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    IshmaelZ said:

    Are you drunk?

    You have clearly been to Pooristan, but you have never been to me. Nor, on reflection, to Pooristan.

    Poor people don't have distant friends, because how would they have them because how can they afford to travel more than walking distance from where they were born? do you not realise that poor = not having any money? not, not very much money compared to the average Cambridge graduate, but actually not any money?

    Fuck smartphones, fuck wikipedia, and the people:drinking water ratio has plummeted because the industrial revolution has multiplied people a fuck of a lot quicker than it has multiplied fresh water.
    You know what the great thing is? Being poor is a hell of a lot better now - on any metric - than it was in pre-industrial times.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    I am sure the average peasant in the Middle Ages would have happily swapped places
    Yes, but that is because you have never left Swindon or wherever the fuck you live. In much of abroadland, things are as shit as they ever were. Without even the glorious prospect of being enslaved, abducted and worked to death by THE EMPIRE, hurrah to make up for it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sean_F said:

    You know what the great thing is? Being poor is a hell of a lot better now - on any metric - than it was in pre-industrial times.
    In the first world.

    Which is where you live, so all good.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes, but that is because you have never left Swindon or wherever the fuck you live. In much of abroadland, things are as shit as they ever were. Without even the glorious prospect of being enslaved, abducted and worked to death by THE EMPIRE, hurrah to make up for it.
    You seem to be almost completely ignorant about history.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    IshmaelZ said:

    In the first world.

    Which is where you live, so all good.
    What do you think life expectancy was in India, or China, in 1780, compared to today?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited August 2022

    Kate Clanchy's 'Some kids I taught ...' is really good on this issue. Amazing the attempts to get the book cancelled, despite it being the absolute epitome of left-liberalism. It's actually a superb and very moving piece of writing.
    @rcs1000 You describe exactly the Comprehensive I went to as a kid in Cyprus (Combine Armed Forces Education Authority school). 1500+ kids (i.e. ALL the kids from the Western end of the island), up to 20 streams per year. Mobility in streams by subject. House system mixing all streams in your House-taught subjects (e.g. woodworking, metal working, art, music. TD) and in the sports teams.

    There were bullies, but the mixing of ability/social strata through the House system helped with self-policing in that area too.
  • Wait, are you talking about Brexit or fox hunting?
    Rejoining could well be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934
    edited August 2022
    On the second stop of my post-Covid driving holiday, 2 nights in the Breisgau wineland at the foot of the Black Forest before heading across the Alps. Last 2 days were in Ghent.



    Leon pronounced to me weeks ago that the itinerary was far too whistlestop. I disagreed - you can get a good sense of a city in one or two days, and the drive is part of the fun. But after a day of Belgian, Luxembourgeois and Alsatian traffic jams and a beautiful stopover like this I’m wondering. Next time a week in the Black Forest with a view of the Belchen.
  • At the end of hustings:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.12 Liz Truss 89%
    9 Rishi Sunak 11%
    Money coming for Rishi.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sean_F said:

    You seem to be almost completely ignorant about history.
    Yes. If only I were a professional, paid, published historian. A man can dream...

    Also I have travelled overland, on the cheap, from Capetown to Cairo. No chances there to observe what actual 21st C poverty looks like, though.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    Carnyx said:

    Had to look it up - hadn't realised it is so near Meldon! But it does not look at all like an easy pinpoint to meet in the mist.
    I think it's the second highest hill in the south. A nice hill once you're at the top - though I haven't found a good way to do it which doesn't need half an hour's trudge through ankle-twisting rock and bog to reach the top. A trifle sweaty now...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    It will, the Tories almost always win over 65s, even if they lose every other age bracket, the only time they ever lost pensioners was 1997.

    However even when we win majorities like 2015 and 2019 and win most voters over 35, most of our members are still over 65
    You: "I am unusual in being a member under 50 and always have been"
    Me: "That won't last"
    You: "It will..."

    How are you planning to stay forever under 50?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    Carnyx said:

    Had to look it up - hadn't realised it is so near Meldon! But it does not look at all like an easy pinpoint to meet in the mist.
    I think it's the second highest hill in the south. A nice hill once you're at the top - though I haven't found a good way to do it which doesn't need half an hour's trudge through ankle-twisting rock and bog to reach the top. A trifle sweaty now...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    Put down the prosecco, @IshmaelZ
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    I did a damn stupid thing this weekend so really haven't been on PB much but have we covered this?

    Liz Truss is now only five points ahead of Rishi Sunak in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, private polling carried out for the foreign secretary’s campaign suggests.

    The survey, which concluded early last week, has support for Truss on 48 per cent compared with 43 per cent for the former chancellor, and 9 per cent of members who were questioned undecided.

    The poll is in contrast to the last YouGov survey carried out at the end of the knockout stages that suggested Truss had a 24-point lead over Sunak.

    Sources in the Sunak campaign claimed the shift reflected the feedback they had been getting on the ground suggesting that the race was much closer than had previously been thought.

    “It really hasn’t felt to us like Liz was doing as well as the polls have been suggesting. Wherever he goes he is getting really good feedback and an awful lot of people are still making up their minds.

    “This doesn’t feel like a re-run of 2019 [when Boris Johnson was convincingly ahead of Jeremy Hunt]. Liz’s support feels very soft.”

    The polling was carried out by the Italian data and public affairs firm Techne and asked Tory members their views on both candidates as well as their policy plans.

    Sources in the Truss camp said it had not been commissioned by them but confirmed it had been shared with the campaign.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-just-five-points-behind-liz-truss-in-latest-tory-leadership-poll-0p2b8nppv

    Would still be the closest Tory membership vote yet then, even if Truss wins it
  • So let's see.

    Truss is going to achieve growth to get us out of the CoL crisis.

    She'll be the first Tory in 13 years to actually do it if she does, good luck I say
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Leon said:

    Put down the prosecco, @IshmaelZ

    I think he's already put down a few too many tbh.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Piers Morgan has been sanctioned by Russia.

    At last, Putin shows sense.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    It's always amused me how massively Tory Geri Halliwell is.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    tlg86 said:

    What’s surprised me is how poor Sunak has been. I knew he was up against it, but he’s gone to pieces (watch him win now!).
    Indeed, his 'campaign' has made Hunt's in 2019 look like a model of professionalism. I think @Rottenborugh upthread summed Sunak up to a tee. I attended his meeting (120 present) to E&W on Saturday. For all his fluency and amiability, there was little 'authenticity'; it all sounded too much pre-packaged devoid of resonance. Perhaps, I'm being a tad unfair - he will get my vote and he could do better than the polls are predicting.

    I also agree with HYUFD that if defeated, he will likely quit politics at the next election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,551

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 38% (-3)
    CON: 34% (+1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 7% (+2)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 31 Jul

    Another Redfield? I am lost

    Paging Owls in 5,4,3.......
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    So let's see.

    Truss is going to achieve growth to get us out of the CoL crisis.

    She'll be the first Tory in 13 years to actually do it if she does, good luck I say

    To be fair, the whole of the West has the same CoL crisis as Britain and many voters surely know this. If Truss can make it so its not so bad here as it is elsewhere, that might be enough?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    JohnO said:

    Indeed, his 'campaign' has made Hunt's in 2019 look like a model of professionalism. I think @Rottenborugh upthread summed Sunak up to a tee. I attended his meeting (120 present) to E&W on Saturday. For all his fluency and amiability, there was little 'authenticity'; it all sounded too much pre-packaged devoid of resonance. Perhaps, I'm being a tad unfair - he will get my vote and he could do better than the polls are predicting.

    I also agree with HYUFD that if defeated, he will likely quit politics at the next election.
    Very interesting from a confessed early Rishi-backer.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes. If only I were a professional, paid, published historian. A man can dream...

    Also I have travelled overland, on the cheap, from Capetown to Cairo. No chances there to observe what actual 21st C poverty looks like, though.
    But isn't penicillin to blame for that, not the industrial revolution? Or, if you can't accept that, the agricultural revolution? The industrial revolution has done little to contribute to overpopulation. The agricultural and medical revolutions, OTOH ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    MISTY said:

    To be fair, the whole of the West has the same CoL crisis as Britain and many voters surely know this. If Truss can make it so its not so bad here as it is elsewhere, that might be enough?

    Honestly, no.

    People don't look at their finances going down the pan and say, "well, it's worse in France".

    Maybe in a fair world they should, but they don't.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    HYUFD said:

    Most grammars also have entry at 13 and 16 and they offer more choice in the state sector so fewer parents have to go private
    His parents only had to send his brother to private school because the blunt tool selection of the eleven plus had consigned him to a substandard school. If they had lived in an area with only comprehensive schools like I did growing up then they could have both attended their local school and his brother would have been streamed into a top set before his GCSEs. My two siblings and I all attended local comps and got into the three oldest universities in the UK. With good quality well resourced local schools for everyone nobody has to go private.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Put down the prosecco, @IshmaelZ

    Yeah sure

    Cava btw is sensationally good value atm because unfashionable compared to prosecco

    I breed ponies for fun, and I only do it on the basis that every pony I breed is going to be happier than it would be if it had never been born. It is very hard to be impressed by arguments that yeah lots of ponies were having an even more shit time 200 years ago. So what?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    JohnO said:

    Indeed, his 'campaign' has made Hunt's in 2019 look like a model of professionalism. I think @Rottenborugh upthread summed Sunak up to a tee. I attended his meeting (120 present) to E&W on Saturday. For all his fluency and amiability, there was little 'authenticity'; it all sounded too much pre-packaged devoid of resonance. Perhaps, I'm being a tad unfair - he will get my vote and he could do better than the polls are predicting.

    I also agree with HYUFD that if defeated, he will likely quit politics at the next election.
    So he's taking his ball away if he can't be captain?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244

    I did a damn stupid thing this weekend so really haven't been on PB much

    Congratulations?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Sean_F said:

    You seem to be almost completely ignorant about history.
    Let him finish the bottle, and then we'll have peace again until the morning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Money coming for Rishi.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    This is brilliant.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    TimS said:

    On the second stop of my post-Covid driving holiday, 2 nights in the Breisgau wineland at the foot of the Black Forest before heading across the Alps. Last 2 days were in Ghent.



    Leon pronounced to me weeks ago that the itinerary was far too whistlestop. I disagreed - you can get a good sense of a city in one or two days, and the drive is part of the fun. But after a day of Belgian, Luxembourgeois and Alsatian traffic jams and a beautiful stopover like this I’m wondering. Next time a week in the Black Forest with a view of the Belchen.

    We went to the Black Forest over Easter, it is a lovely part of the world. Very accessible too - two trains from London to Strasbourg via Paris, then a half hour drive in a hire car. The Franco-German border a good reminder of what borders should look like in 21st century Europe, just an empty road and a discreet sign, not the lorry park and rude Border Force wankers clusterfuck you get travelling between Britain and France.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    MISTY said:

    To be fair, the whole of the West has the same CoL crisis as Britain and many voters surely know this. If Truss can make it so its not so bad here as it is elsewhere, that might be enough?

    There are two or three or four different models of CoL crisis though, depending on how dependent a country is on foreign, or indeed Russian, energy; how bad Covid choked supply capability; and the extent to which a country Brexited some of its labour force away.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    I was wondering whether, given Johnson's unpopularity, the team might decline an invitation anyway.

    Perhaps this is No 10 heading that one off at the pass?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Paging Owls in 5,4,3.......
    2,1 SKS fans ..........
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    Very on-brand from Johnson though.
  • Money coming for Rishi.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.13 Liz Truss 88%
    8.4 Rishi Sunak 12%
    More for Rishi:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    8 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.8 Rishi Sunak 13%
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I think he's already put down a few too many tbh.
    Fuck you, ben. I thought I had a reasonable estimate of how small a penis @Taz actually had, and then he likes your post and I have to halve my estimate yet again. Hard to keep up. As I imagine Taz says to his Missus on their twice yearly date nights.

    I should probably go to bed. But I am genuinely taken aback: I have been to the shittest parts of the world, and I know how shit life is there. Most of PB hasn't. Also, most of PB thinks Yay, more people = excellent. As if being alive, for most people, was as wonderful as being a well heeled PBer, with perhaps a 10% discount for being 3rd world. Not how it is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    First Poll with fieldwork entirely after Picket Gate

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    4h
    Labour leads by 4%, narrowest lead since 5 June.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited August 2022
    ...

    A point of order Mr Speaker - I have consistently maintained that Ms Truss will not do much.
    Extra point of order.
    I've gone from wondering why she was so universally (apart from a few) underrated, to wondering why she's now being overestimated.
    She's a bit meh. But then so were her leadership opponents. As is SKS. I haven't changed my opinion. She may win the tallest dwarf come next GE.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    Mirrors the situation in the US. The Women's Team win everything under the sun, multiple times. The Men's Team is crap, but still gets more respect*.

    * Edit. From the sporting establishment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    First Poll with fieldwork entirely after Picket Gate

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    4h
    Labour leads by 4%, narrowest lead since 5 June.

    Nobody in the real world gives a fuck about “picket gate”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794

    I was wondering whether, given Johnson's unpopularity, the team might decline an invitation anyway.

    Perhaps this is No 10 heading that one off at the pass?
    No sporting team would refuse an invite to Number 10. Whoever is in charge. It's the prime minister. Moreover, you don't want to snub the PM, the government and the party which can direct life-changing funds towards your sport


    I think this is Boris being demob happy and misreading the room. The article says he's off on hols on Wednesday. Probably can't be arsed. It's a mistake Truss would not make. Truss was also at the game, unlike him

    It's time to kick him out and get her in
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    If it doesn’t gain him anything personally then he won’t do it. What’s in it for Johnson at this point?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,189
    edited August 2022

    More for Rishi:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    8 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.8 Rishi Sunak 13%
    Rishi best-priced 15/2 at Betfred (or 8.5 which is longer than Betfair).

    ETA correction: 8/1 including boost at Bet365.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    DougSeal said:

    If it doesn’t gain him anything personally then he won’t do it. What’s in it for Johnson at this point?
    Yes, I fear you might be right

    He needs the old heave-ho
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2022
    dixiedean said:

    ...

    Extra point of order.
    I've gone from wondering why she was so universally (apart from a few) underrated, to wondering why she's now being overestimated.
    She's a bit meh. But then so were her leadership opponents. As is SKS. I haven't changed my opinion. She may win the tallest dwarf come next GE.
    The suggestion is that Liz is “crazy”, gets “bees in her bonnet”, is a “leaker”, “can’t work with people”, was not “trusted with a big spend ministry”, and that she has questions over her private life.

    I’ve no doubt at least some of that is true and as we’ve seen time and time again, the premiership is a cruelly efficient exposer of character flaws.
  • DougSeal said:

    If it doesn’t gain him anything personally then he won’t do it. What’s in it for Johnson at this point?
    Athletic young ladies?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    No sporting team would refuse an invite to Number 10. Whoever is in charge. It's the prime minister. Moreover, you don't want to snub the PM, the government and the party which can direct life-changing funds towards your sport


    I think this is Boris being demob happy and misreading the room. The article says he's off on hols on Wednesday. Probably can't be arsed. It's a mistake Truss would not make. Truss was also at the game, unlike him

    It's time to kick him out and get her in
    Quite a history of teams refusing to visit Trump's White House:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/championship-teams-trump-white-house-2019-4
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934

    First Poll with fieldwork entirely after Picket Gate

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    4h
    Labour leads by 4%, narrowest lead since 5 June.

    LLG 57%, steady as she goes and in line with almost all recent polls.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited August 2022

    Athletic young ladies?
    Who are more popular than he is? Perhaps that is the root of the problem ;)

    [Edit: I see @DougSeal beat me to it by a couple of minutes :D ]
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    What exactly could it be about the prospect of a dozen or so young, athletic blonde females round at Boris' for drinks that is making them hesitate so?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Nobody in the real world gives a fuck about “picket gate”.
    People care if Lab is on the side of workers or not


    How would you know about the real world?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Asked if she would ever authorise another lockdown,
    @TrussLiz
    says: "No, I wouldn't."

    She adds that whenever previous lockdowns were being considered, she was "in favour of doing less rather than more".

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1554191734338457601?s=20&t=usPCGlFD4B63JNzPHxlEyg
  • Leon said:

    A bizarre, tin-eared error by Boris

    "No 10 rules out reception for Lionesses"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-rules-out-reception-for-lionesses-mfcd6tkdr?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1659378097


    As the article shows, Downing Street receptions were given to the men's World Cup rugby winning team in 2003, and the victorious Ashes team in 2005

    I guess you could argue that the rugby team won the WORLD Cup, but the Ashes was... the Ashes, and England have won the Ashes many times: yet Number Ten got caught up in the excitement of an amazing sporting story, and rightly honoured that team

    This is the first England football triumph - in the global sport we invented - for over half a century. Tsk. Give them some English Fizz at Number 10 FFS

    Boris thinks flange should be on his arm as he makes the headlines, not crowding him off the front pages in Downing Street. So no reception for that lot. They're all woke, telling girls they have a role as actual people. For shame.
  • People care if Lab is on the side of workers or not


    How would you know about the real world?
    Most people don't think union people are workers. Because so few people are in unions. That's a bad thing btw.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    TimS said:

    On the second stop of my post-Covid driving holiday, 2 nights in the Breisgau wineland at the foot of the Black Forest before heading across the Alps. Last 2 days were in Ghent.



    Leon pronounced to me weeks ago that the itinerary was far too whistlestop. I disagreed - you can get a good sense of a city in one or two days, and the drive is part of the fun. But after a day of Belgian, Luxembourgeois and Alsatian traffic jams and a beautiful stopover like this I’m wondering. Next time a week in the Black Forest with a view of the Belchen.


    Which route are you using to cross the Alps?

    We're planning to drive down to Lake Como next month from the Portsmouth - St Malo ferry, stopping first at Beaune in Burgundy for a couple of nights. Still undecided whether to go via Switzerland from there or use the Mont Blanc or Frejus tunnel.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,335
    Lol





  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    HYUFD said:

    Asked if she would ever authorise another lockdown,
    @TrussLiz
    says: "No, I wouldn't."

    She adds that whenever previous lockdowns were being considered, she was "in favour of doing less rather than more".

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1554191734338457601?s=20&t=usPCGlFD4B63JNzPHxlEyg

    I think thats probably genuine given her instinct. TBF I think Sunal is also on that side of the fence.
  • More for Rishi:-

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.16 Liz Truss 86%
    8 Rishi Sunak 13%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7.8 Rishi Sunak 13%
    Rishi into 6/1 (and is bigger with Bet365 and Betfred).

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.15 Liz Truss 87%
    7 Rishi Sunak 14%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.14 Liz Truss 88%
    7.2 Rishi Sunak 14%
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    As Tory members reach for their pens, Liz Truss may get some exposure that's more about "show us how good your performance is" than "make some nice promises" - relating to Taiwan.

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

    "The island dominates production of the chips that power almost all advanced civilian and military technologies. That leaves the U.S. and Chinese economies extremely reliant on plants that would be in the line of fire in an attack on Taiwan. It's a vulnerability stoking alarm in Washington."
    Leon said:

    No sporting team would refuse an invite to Number 10. Whoever is in charge. It's the prime minister. Moreover, you don't want to snub the PM, the government and the party which can direct life-changing funds towards your sport

    I think this is Boris being demob happy and misreading the room. The article says he's off on hols on Wednesday. Probably can't be arsed. It's a mistake Truss would not make. Truss was also at the game, unlike him

    It's time to kick him out and get her in
    It is time to kick him out, but not for that reason.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited August 2022

    His parents only had to send his brother to private school because the blunt tool selection of the eleven plus had consigned him to a substandard school. If they had lived in an area with only comprehensive schools like I did growing up then they could have both attended their local school and his brother would have been streamed into a top set before his GCSEs. My two siblings and I all attended local comps and got into the three oldest universities in the UK. With good quality well resourced local schools for everyone nobody has to go private.
    No they couldn't, there are almost no comprehensive schools which get as good results as most private schools.

    The only state schools which normally match private schools for results are grammar schools, so if you have the money to go private and no grammar schools in the area then you would almost always go private to get your children into the best school possible. Whereas if you lived in a selective area if your children got into a grammar you could save money and send them there, only sending them private if they did not pass the entrance test.

    You might have gone to a reasonable comp and managed but those who have to attend comps in deprived working class areas don't get that choice, hence areas with grammars get proportionally significantly more disadvantaged pupils into top universities than comprehensive areas
    https://schoolsweek.co.uk/poor-pupils-at-grammar-schools-twice-as-likely-to-attend-oxbridge-study-claims/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    IshmaelZ said:

    Fuck you, ben. I thought I had a reasonable estimate of how small a penis @Taz actually had, and then he likes your post and I have to halve my estimate yet again. Hard to keep up. As I imagine Taz says to his Missus on their twice yearly date nights.

    I should probably go to bed. But I am genuinely taken aback: I have been to the shittest parts of the world, and I know how shit life is there. Most of PB hasn't. Also, most of PB thinks Yay, more people = excellent. As if being alive, for most people, was as wonderful as being a well heeled PBer, with perhaps a 10% discount for being 3rd world. Not how it is.
    It's the presentation not the content of your posts that leads me to assume you've been over-indulging.

    If I have got that wrong, what's your excuse?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934


    Which route are you using to cross the Alps?

    We're planning to drive down to Lake Como next month from the Portsmouth - St Malo ferry, stopping first at Beaune in Burgundy for a couple of nights. Still undecided whether to go via Switzerland from there or use the Mont Blanc or Frejus tunnel.
    We’re going Luzerne then Gotthard pass (not tunnel, going to take our time). Then Como 2 nights before ferry from Savona to Corsica.

    If you are stopping in Burgundy then by far the nicest bit, where I have a second home, is the Maconnais - around Cluny. Beautiful landscape, beautiful architecture, affordable wine, and conveniently just before the motorway turning via Bourg en Bresse to the Alps.

  • Dynamo said:

    As Tory members reach for their pens, Liz Truss may get some exposure that's more about "show us how good your performance is" than "make some nice promises" - relating to Taiwan.

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

    "The island dominates production of the chips that power almost all advanced civilian and military technologies. That leaves the U.S. and Chinese economies extremely reliant on plants that would be in the line of fire in an attack on Taiwan. It's a vulnerability stoking alarm in Washington."

    America is throwing $50 billion at chip-makers as part of its $280 billion Chips & Science Act. China and South Korea are also throwing tens if not hundreds of billions at their own semiconductor sectors.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/us_chips_act_vs_world/
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Dynamo said:

    As Tory members reach for their pens, Liz Truss may get some exposure that's more about "show us how good your performance is" than "make some nice promises" - relating to Taiwan.

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-chips/

    "The island dominates production of the chips that power almost all advanced civilian and military technologies. That leaves the U.S. and Chinese economies extremely reliant on plants that would be in the line of fire in an attack on Taiwan. It's a vulnerability stoking alarm in Washington."

    A few years ago, some US companies started moving chip fab back to the US simply because of the perceived vulnerability of Taiwan. Even TSMC is opening a US operation
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Leon said:

    No sporting team would refuse an invite to Number 10. Whoever is in charge. It's the prime minister. Moreover, you don't want to snub the PM, the government and the party which can direct life-changing funds towards your sport
    It was reported last year, and then denied, that the men's England football team refused an invitation to No10.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It's the presentation not the content of your posts that leads me to assume you've been over-indulging.

    If I have got that wrong, what's your excuse?
    It's hard. As @Taz probably has very little occasion to say.

    Otherwise, I dunno. I just do not understand this insane boosterism of the more people = the better. It doesn't.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,386
    IshmaelZ said:

    Are you drunk?

    You have clearly been to Pooristan, but you have never been to me. Nor, on reflection, to Pooristan.

    Poor people don't have distant friends, because how would they have them because how can they afford to travel more than walking distance from where they were born? do you not realise that poor = not having any money? not, not very much money compared to the average Cambridge graduate, but actually not any money?

    Fuck smartphones, fuck wikipedia, and the people:drinking water ratio has plummeted because the industrial revolution has multiplied people a fuck of a lot quicker than it has multiplied fresh water.
    And yet your chance of making 30, almost irrespective of where you are born, has never been better.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,794
    TimS said:

    We’re going Luzerne then Gotthard pass (not tunnel, going to take our time). Then Como 2 nights before ferry from Savona to Corsica.

    If you are stopping in Burgundy then by far the nicest bit, where I have a second home, is the Maconnais - around Cluny. Beautiful landscape, beautiful architecture, affordable wine, and conveniently just before the motorway turning via Bourg en Bresse to the Alps.

    I know Cluny. Quite a charming, slightly forgotten corner of France

    I note that 40C is forecast there, for Thursday. Ouch. Global warming might fuck the French wine industry
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Carrie has probably vetoed a No 10 reception for the footballers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,386
    Dynamo said:

    It was reported last year, and then denied, that the men's England football team refused an invitation to No10.
    Why would they have been invited?

    Unless, of course, Johnson wanted to be seen next to a bunch of losers, because he thought he'd look good by comparison...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet your chance of making 30, almost irrespective of where you are born, has never been better.
    And making 30 with a $100k income, a condo and a BMW is just peachy. Yay.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,934
    TimS said:

    We’re going Luzerne then Gotthard pass (not tunnel, going to take our time). Then Como 2 nights before ferry from Savona to Corsica.

    If you are stopping in Burgundy then by far the nicest bit, where I have a second home, is the Maconnais - around Cluny. Beautiful landscape, beautiful architecture, affordable wine, and conveniently just before the motorway turning via Bourg en Bresse to the Alps.

    To give an idea I got DALL:E to draw a picture of “Cezanne painting of Maconnais landscape with Église de Chapaize in the middle distance”. Captures it pretty well.



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited August 2022

    Most people don't think union people are workers. Because so few people are in unions. That's a bad thing btw.
    Real people can empathize with workers taking a stand and not being prepared to take massive real term pay cuts in a COL crisis and can see SKS is not on their side.

    Ben Pointer apparently agrees real people dont give a fuck I am surprised at Ben not so much at CHB
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    dixiedean said:

    What exactly could it be about the prospect of a dozen or so young, athletic blonde females round at Boris' for drinks that is making them hesitate so?
    They presumably would have the requisite skills and ability in order to kick men in the balls when merited.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Hmm, I wonder if over confidence will do it for her
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454

    He is underwhelming, but too much red on red action when the Conservatives are embarking on a love-in with Liz will end in tears.
    I agree. As one of his predecessors said 'Labour are at their best when they're at their boldest'. The best thing he's done so far was to say he'd resign if he got an FPN.(He'd have had no choice but that wasn't the point).

    Saying he thinks it's immoral to send asylum seekers to Rwanda isn't a difficult answer. Even Prince Charles and the Archbishop of Canterbury could do it. These are not moral dilemmas. Showing the leader of the Labour Party is a civilised human being shouldn't be difficult.

    Saying he wants to get closer to the EU is just common sense. Saying nothing just looks feeble minded. If he doesn't start drawing lines with Truss and the Tories now when will he? I don't say the voters will come out for the Tories. They've soiled themselves too badly. But has Starmer given anyone a reason to come out for Labour?'
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651

    America is throwing $50 billion at chip-makers as part of its $280 billion Chips & Science Act. China and South Korea are also throwing tens if not hundreds of billions at their own semiconductor sectors.
    https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/us_chips_act_vs_world/
    Interesting.

    "The eagerly anticipated spending bill paves the way for $280 billion in funding [...], roughly $52 billion of which is earmarked for boosting US semiconductor production."

    "China is said to have already invested $80 billion of a planned $150 billion in government subsidies in its bid to become the global leader in all segments of the semiconductor industry by 2030."

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,518
    HYUFD said:

    Asked if she would ever authorise another lockdown,
    @TrussLiz
    says: "No, I wouldn't."

    She adds that whenever previous lockdowns were being considered, she was "in favour of doing less rather than more".

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1554191734338457601?s=20&t=usPCGlFD4B63JNzPHxlEyg

    Well she is lying then, because if there is a variant of Covid say that has a mortality rate of 50%, or bird flu mutates to become transmittable through the air between humans without a reduction in mortality we will be locked down far more strictly they we were during the 3 Covid lockdowns or otherwise the dustman will be collecting bodybags.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Real people can empathize with workers taking a stand and not being prepared to take massive real term pay cuts in a COL crisis and can see SKS is not on their side.

    Ben Pointer apparently agrees real people dont give a fuck I am surprised at Ben
    On this one I'm with you.
    It seems Mandelson/Campbell/Blair are trying a mid -90's strategy.
    But it's 2022. People asking for an (often) below inflation pay rise aren't being unreasonable at all.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,628
    kjh said:

    Well she is lying then, because if there is a variant of Covid say that has a mortality rate of 50%, or bird flu mutates to become transmittable through the air between humans without a reduction in mortality we will be locked down far more strictly they we were during the 3 Covid lockdowns or otherwise the dustman will be collecting bodybags.
    Yes, it’s a stupid hostage to fortune. However, it’s also a bit of an unfair question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    I did a damn stupid thing this weekend so really haven't been on PB

    I knew it was you behind those Masi death threats.

    However, no matter what you did, you can take modest satisfaction from not being as stupid as Ferrari.
This discussion has been closed.