A 33% return in just under two and a half years? – politicalbetting.com

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

Foxy said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Vote Starmer...

And dynamically align with EU policies and regulation.

Keystone said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Vote Starmer...

And dynamically align with EU policies and regulation.

Simply introduce a functioning national identity database and enforce the 3 month grace period before people have to leave.

Benefits could become Bismarckian/contributory. Defined pots could also ease the introduction of private health and pension managers into the public system.

It would have suited Leon perfectly - people of independent means can swan around Europe like extras in an Agatha Christie movie, while the undesirables are gently ushered to the door by economic pressures - like an upmarket eatery on Upper Street, such as Ottolenghi.

There really was no reason not to enforce such rules - except some influential IEA donors were dead set against it.

RochdalePioneers said:

turbotubbs said:

geoffw said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

You do away with customs, tariffs, and quotas.

I thought we had a free trade agreement with the EU? Still need checks apparently. I for one did not appreciate this before the referendum, but I have the luxury of having voted remain, unlike others, such as @RochdalePioneers

A free trade agreement where all goods have to be categorised and notarised and catalogued is not free trade. Yes the goods I import are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT. But the reams of paperwork needed are slow expensive and pointlessly bureaucratic. Have 3 pallets on a truck and it suffers a breakdown on route and the truck gets swapped out? All your paperwork is invalid and it can't cross until all companies with pallets on board get new ones.

Vs put goods on truck, drive truck, unload truck.

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Now you are goalpost moving.

This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.

This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums

This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.

This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.

RochdalePioneers said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mick Lynch of the
@RMTunion
on Liz Truss threatening to effectively abolish the right of workers to withdraw their labour.

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1551975194662780931

This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.

In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.

I got my first chainsaw (Bosch, bit with an Oregon chain) last winter. Just think before you saw and it will be fine. Have managed so far not to slice off anything that isn't wood. And yes, the mountain of lumber now stored in the garage will keep us going for years. Thanks Arwen!

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Now you are goalpost moving.

This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.

This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums

This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.

This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.

turbotubbs said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mick Lynch of the
@RMTunion
on Liz Truss threatening to effectively abolish the right of workers to withdraw their labour.

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1551975194662780931

This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.

In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.

I got my first chainsaw (Bosch, bit with an Oregon chain) last winter. Just think before you saw and it will be fine. Have managed so far not to slice off anything that isn't wood. And yes, the mountain of lumber now stored in the garage will keep us going for years. Thanks Arwen!

I also bought one (with trepidation) but as you say, think before you saw.

tlg86 said:

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493


Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
·
6m
I am now blocked by the QC who opened this debate about whether people with brown skin could be viable candidates with the membership. He has clearly now had enough of experts & evidence on this topic!


https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1552243488569393152?s=20&t=15wU-2JVAViYR5gKQjZHBQ

Not just leftie lawyers having a meltdown about Sunak.

Byline Times, the Waitrose shopper’s Skwawkbox, has had to distance itself from a xenophobic tweet sent by their Global Correspondent. The tweet’s text was bad enough, claiming “Muslims in Britain and India fear potential UK PM Rishi Sunak”. The accompanying image was even more eyebrow-raising…

https://order-order.com/2022/07/27/byline-times-distances-itself-from-correspondents-xenophobic-rishi-tweet/

Um... I may be having a sense of humour bypass here but I think we should make it clear that Byline Times has nothing to do with Waitrose (AFAIUI).

Never having heard of Byline Times, I initially read it as being a Waitrose house mag/website.

Guido's suggesting Byline Times is seen as more respectable than Sqwawkbox. I have no idea if that is fair and, like you, I've never heard of Byline Times.

turbotubbs said:

RochdalePioneers said:

turbotubbs said:

geoffw said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

You do away with customs, tariffs, and quotas.

I thought we had a free trade agreement with the EU? Still need checks apparently. I for one did not appreciate this before the referendum, but I have the luxury of having voted remain, unlike others, such as @RochdalePioneers

A free trade agreement where all goods have to be categorised and notarised and catalogued is not free trade. Yes the goods I import are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT. But the reams of paperwork needed are slow expensive and pointlessly bureaucratic. Have 3 pallets on a truck and it suffers a breakdown on route and the truck gets swapped out? All your paperwork is invalid and it can't cross until all companies with pallets on board get new ones.

Vs put goods on truck, drive truck, unload truck.

How do we get back to that? Without freedom of movement? Is it all about accepting EU standards (and judgement)?

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

Have you forgotten the May era already? She asked for a deep and special partnership, with a common rule book and proposed multiple customs options, and was mocked and told this was cakeism.

Leon said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?

Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.

Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...

OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff

I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)

So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien

Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular

The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks

It may well be what you hope for, but that isn't happening. Each poll on the subject shows a gradual shift against Brexit and for Rejoin. It won't be on the cards for English parties at the next GE, but cannot be ignored forever.

Er, except the poll today?

lol



What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

turbotubbs said:

RochdalePioneers said:

IshmaelZ said:

Mick Lynch of the
@RMTunion
on Liz Truss threatening to effectively abolish the right of workers to withdraw their labour.

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1551975194662780931

This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.

In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.

I got my first chainsaw (Bosch, bit with an Oregon chain) last winter. Just think before you saw and it will be fine. Have managed so far not to slice off anything that isn't wood. And yes, the mountain of lumber now stored in the garage will keep us going for years. Thanks Arwen!

I also bought one (with trepidation) but as you say, think before you saw.

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Now you are goalpost moving.

This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.

This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums

This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.

This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

Have you forgotten the May era already? She asked for a deep and special partnership, with a common rule book and proposed multiple customs options, and was mocked and told this was cakeism.

Because it was cakeism. She wanted to go off and do what she wanted and still be a member of the club. Do a Norway - close enough for access, far enough away not to be dragged into things you don't want to do.

In order to get the deal you want, would you tear up all Truss's trade deals and give up on the CPTPP?

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

See. That's your narrow mind again, working against you

I believe you are incapable of understanding patriotism. The idea that some people are genuinely, emotionally attached to a nation. To you it seems bizarre, and a touch childish, and embarrassing. But it is in fact no more bizarre than loving your kids

A nation is the larger genetic embodiment of the self, it is a larger version of the family or the tribe, thus a normal person wishes it well. To my mind, moreover, Britain is unusually deserving of love and loyalty, because it has done much that is admirable (and made some big mistakes as well) - from Magna Carta to World War 2, from the Industrial Revolution to the abolition of slavery (yes, this after we profited hugely from slavery), from world sports to landscape gardens, from the Putney Debates to discovering DNA to the English language, the global language - Britain has played an outsize, remarkable and often honourable role on the world stage, and has the potential to do more

Also, our funny little island is beautiful, various and green, albeit scarred by history (and a bit drizzly today)

So, yes, I love my country. I love Britain. I don't want it sliced in two. Amazing, huh

If you didn't have that weird pinched lefty brain you'd have worked this out in a second - "he's a British patriot, I understand patriotism". But you do, so you didn't

What you are failing to get is that although you are putting up a valid argument for staying in the UK, and for all you insults to those who don't want to (and by the way it doesn't include me) there are arguments on the other side. The same applied to the EU.

For all your insults about these people being blinkered you are just as blinkered from your side for failing to understand their reasons for believing the opposite.

I am a remainer, but I don't have a strong view on Scottish independence and since Brexit I find the argument for independence weakened. However unlike you I don't call people who disagree with me cretins and don't accuse them of being narrow minded while demonstrating narrow mindedness myself.

One more time before I blow a gasket


I AM NOT TALKING TO YOU. I HAVE NO DESIRE TO TALK TO YOU. THIS WAS AN ANSWER TO @kinabalu

GRRRRRRRR

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?

Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.

Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...

OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff

I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)

So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien

Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular

The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks

But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.

You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.

Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.

As the Brexiteers are not inspecting incoming EU goods, we are a captive market for EU exports, while our own exports are subject to self imposed red tape. It really isn't a very good or for that matter a stable outcome.

Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.

Our exports to the EU are at an all time high so not that much of a problem.

As I understand it, the record high is driven by LNG going through the UK to the continent. I’m not certain that demonstrates that all other exports are doing well.

Not according to this: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-eu-exports-brexit-ons-q2-2021-june-may-082440989.html#:~:text=UK exports to the European Union have returned,£14.1bn and 1.2% in June to £14.3bn.

Or the ONS. I think that the transmission of power created from LNG in the UK is a more recent phenomenon which will show up in this month's figures.

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?

Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.

Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...

OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff

I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)

So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien

Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular

The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks

But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.

You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.

Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.

As the Brexiteers are not inspecting incoming EU goods, we are a captive market for EU exports, while our own exports are subject to self imposed red tape. It really isn't a very good or for that matter a stable outcome.

Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.

Our exports to the EU are at an all time high so not that much of a problem.

How much experience of export within the EU do you have ?

Brexit is an absolubte pain in the arse for exporters.

From the ONS for May:
"Goods exports to the EU reached £16.9 billion in May 2022, their highest level since the series began in 1997; likely related to rising prices in 2022. Removing the effect of inflation, exports to the EU, excluding unspecified goods, rose to £13.9 billion in May 2022, the highest levels since December 2020."

The ONS also points out that the figures are more volatile, and I would not want to put too much emphasis on a months figures but the links I set out in my earlier post show that things are back to at least normal. The gloom laden predictions of a collapse of UK exports have proven to be nonsense. Some of us may be more surprised than others.

kinabalu said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Now you are goalpost moving.

This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.

This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums

This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.

This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.

I think what he's saying is he knows he's being irrational but that's where his 'patriotism' (ie in the hard nationalistic sense of the word) leads. I don't like it or agree with it but it's good to have it clarified.

The Sindy Ref point is something else imo. I think the argument for having one is compelling - because of Brexit and the Holyrood mandate - and I don't think to do so is to risk a "Ref every year until it's a Yes". Think that's a nonsense since if it's another No the SNP would have to backburner the issue or lose power.

kjh said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

See. That's your narrow mind again, working against you

I believe you are incapable of understanding patriotism. The idea that some people are genuinely, emotionally attached to a nation. To you it seems bizarre, and a touch childish, and embarrassing. But it is in fact no more bizarre than loving your kids

A nation is the larger genetic embodiment of the self, it is a larger version of the family or the tribe, thus a normal person wishes it well. To my mind, moreover, Britain is unusually deserving of love and loyalty, because it has done much that is admirable (and made some big mistakes as well) - from Magna Carta to World War 2, from the Industrial Revolution to the abolition of slavery (yes, this after we profited hugely from slavery), from world sports to landscape gardens, from the Putney Debates to discovering DNA to the English language, the global language - Britain has played an outsize, remarkable and often honourable role on the world stage, and has the potential to do more

Also, our funny little island is beautiful, various and green, albeit scarred by history (and a bit drizzly today)

So, yes, I love my country. I love Britain. I don't want it sliced in two. Amazing, huh

If you didn't have that weird pinched lefty brain you'd have worked this out in a second - "he's a British patriot, I understand patriotism". But you do, so you didn't

What you are failing to get is that although you are putting up a valid argument for staying in the UK, and for all you insults to those who don't want to (and by the way it doesn't include me) there are arguments on the other side. The same applied to the EU.

For all your insults about these people being blinkered you are just as blinkered from your side for failing to understand their reasons for believing the opposite.

I am a remainer, but I don't have a strong view on Scottish independence and since Brexit I find the argument for independence weakened. However unlike you I don't call people who disagree with me cretins and don't accuse them of being narrow minded while demonstrating narrow mindedness myself.

One more time before I blow a gasket


I AM NOT TALKING TO YOU. I HAVE NO DESIRE TO TALK TO YOU. THIS WAS AN ANSWER TO @kinabalu

GRRRRRRRR

a) One more time? First time you have said that to me. Although I note you said it to someone else the other day and got taken down a peg or two.

b) Tough it is a forum for us all to participate. I will respond to you as much as I see fit. Go private if you want a private discussion.

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

See. That's your narrow mind again, working against you

I believe you are incapable of understanding patriotism. The idea that some people are genuinely, emotionally attached to a nation. To you it seems bizarre, and a touch childish, and embarrassing. But it is in fact no more bizarre than loving your kids

A nation is the larger genetic embodiment of the self, it is a larger version of the family or the tribe, thus a normal person wishes it well. To my mind, moreover, Britain is unusually deserving of love and loyalty, because it has done much that is admirable (and made some big mistakes as well) - from Magna Carta to World War 2, from the Industrial Revolution to the abolition of slavery (yes, this after we profited hugely from slavery), from world sports to landscape gardens, from the Putney Debates to discovering DNA to the English language, the global language - Britain has played an outsize, remarkable and often honourable role on the world stage, and has the potential to do more

Also, our funny little island is beautiful, various and green, albeit scarred by history (and a bit drizzly today)

So, yes, I love my country. I love Britain. I don't want it sliced in two. Amazing, huh

If you didn't have that weird pinched lefty brain you'd have worked this out in a second - "he's a British patriot, I understand patriotism". But you do, so you didn't

What you are failing to get is that although you are putting up a valid argument for staying in the UK, and for all you insults to those who don't want to (and by the way it doesn't include me) there are arguments on the other side. The same applied to the EU.

For all your insults about these people being blinkered you are just as blinkered from your side for failing to understand their reasons for believing the opposite.

I am a remainer, but I don't have a strong view on Scottish independence and since Brexit I find the argument for independence weakened. However unlike you I don't call people who disagree with me cretins and don't accuse them of being narrow minded while demonstrating narrow mindedness myself.

One more time before I blow a gasket


I AM NOT TALKING TO YOU. I HAVE NO DESIRE TO TALK TO YOU. THIS WAS AN ANSWER TO @kinabalu

GRRRRRRRR

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

Have you forgotten the May era already? She asked for a deep and special partnership, with a common rule book and proposed multiple customs options, and was mocked and told this was cakeism.

Because it was cakeism. She wanted to go off and do what she wanted and still be a member of the club. Do a Norway - close enough for access, far enough away not to be dragged into things you don't want to do.

In order to get the deal you want, would you tear up all Truss's trade deals and give up on the CPTPP?

MISTY said:

bondegezou said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?

Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.

Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...

OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff

I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)

So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien

Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular

The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks

But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.

You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.

Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.

As the Brexiteers are not inspecting incoming EU goods, we are a captive market for EU exports, while our own exports are subject to self imposed red tape. It really isn't a very good or for that matter a stable outcome.

Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.

Our exports to the EU are at an all time high so not that much of a problem.

As I understand it, the record high is driven by LNG going through the UK to the continent. I’m not certain that demonstrates that all other exports are doing well.

In last night's debate both candidates gave a cautious welcome to the return of fracking, apparently. Got missed in all the furore.

Given current gas prices it would be so profitable that the frackers would be able to offer fracked areas discounts on their energy bills/council tax.

And of course the government would get its cut.

Money talks.

And if we turned Germany into our gas b*tch, that would help negotations on NI and trade, too.

Win, win, win. win.

Fishing said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

I don't think they will, and even if they do, "Vote for a much worse deal than Switzerland's" isn't exactly a winning slogan. Nor would it stick, when we realise that we'd have to obey EU rules without any say into them.

Gardenwalker said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fishing said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

RochdalePioneers said:

williamglenn said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

BREXIT IS BACK, BABY


What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov

@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj

Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.

It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.

Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves

This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed

This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this

Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it.
Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.

Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.

TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.

Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.

"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.

Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."

The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?

It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.

@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.

Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?

I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...

Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?

Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.

I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.

The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.

Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!

Great! Sign me up

But how do you get that without Free Movement?

Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.

The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.

They will. Not one similar to Switzerland, but something bespoke. Its what they do - look at how they have managed to find ways around various other hurdles. What they won't do is volunteer it - remember that we got the deal we asked for. So ask for something that isn't batshit like the one we asked for and go at it.

Have you forgotten the May era already? She asked for a deep and special partnership, with a common rule book and proposed multiple customs options, and was mocked and told this was cakeism.

Because it was cakeism. She wanted to go off and do what she wanted and still be a member of the club. Do a Norway - close enough for access, far enough away not to be dragged into things you don't want to do.

In order to get the deal you want, would you tear up all Truss's trade deals and give up on the CPTPP?

Not necessary in, say, EFTA or equivalent.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.

It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.

What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.

My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.

It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.

But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI

The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed

Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”

It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago

The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada

No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.

Truly infantile levels of analysis

Why?

I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.

The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.

When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.

No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time

And these days I care more about wasted time

But just this once I will indulge you

The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do

The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30

The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU

The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU

The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU

The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU

All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU

And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges

And there it is. Endex

See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?

Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.

The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.

The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.

But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short

I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse

You have my word

Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.

So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?

I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.

The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.

Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.

Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day

I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone

I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again

No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year

I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes

Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.

But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.

Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.

See. That's your narrow mind again, working against you

I believe you are incapable of understanding patriotism. The idea that some people are genuinely, emotionally attached to a nation. To you it seems bizarre, and a touch childish, and embarrassing. But it is in fact no more bizarre than loving your kids

A nation is the larger genetic embodiment of the self, it is a larger version of the family or the tribe, thus a normal person wishes it well. To my mind, moreover, Britain is unusually deserving of love and loyalty, because it has done much that is admirable (and made some big mistakes as well) - from Magna Carta to World War 2, from the Industrial Revolution to the abolition of slavery (yes, this after we profited hugely from slavery), from world sports to landscape gardens, from the Putney Debates to discovering DNA to the English language, the global language - Britain has played an outsize, remarkable and often honourable role on the world stage, and has the potential to do more

Also, our funny little island is beautiful, various and green, albeit scarred by history (and a bit drizzly today)

So, yes, I love my country. I love Britain. I don't want it sliced in two. Amazing, huh

If you didn't have that weird pinched lefty brain you'd have worked this out in a second - "he's a British patriot, I understand patriotism". But you do, so you didn't

I'd say a person who loves their country as they do their kids is a tad unusual - esp when it comes to them being sliced in two. But each to his own.

And here you've for some reason repeated all the stuff we'd already clarified - ie you're irrational about Brexit and Sindy because of your nationalistic and somewhat sentimentalized Patriotism - rather than tackle the next question.

Being - why does Britain have to be outside the EU to be true to itself when most other European countries feel no such thing?

But I did say that was for next Wednesday, I suppose.

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING: Jordan Linden resigns as SNP leader of North Lanarkshire council after claims of sexual harassment

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1552278512500973570