Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
The idea that the UKs relationship with the EU is settled is very unlikely. In whatever the 1980s equivalent of PB was, Leon’s ancestor just wrote that the 1975 referendum settles the matter.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
This Barty's "new equilibrium" argument. I saw your leg off, you are really pissed off for a bit but then you get a prosthetic and some crutches and a physio and a blue parking badge, life goes on, and the new normal becomes the normal normal.
Honestly, if Truss had stood up and said: “my goal is that every criminal case is tried within a year” that would be something I would absolutely be 100% behind. The current situation is failing everyone.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
It also assumes Starmer isn't just saying what he needs to say at each stage. Who knows what he'd do in power.
The Tories will highlight his dishonesty to his own people, that is for sure.
If the Tories are smart they'll run social media campaigns targeting those on the left with the gaps between Starmer's earlier rhetoric on nationalisation and his current position. People will squawk that it isn't fair or something.
Whilst at the same time wondering whether he was lying then or lying now. Can you trust him not to govern as a far left PM?
Final time I arrived at Court and the CPS lawyer said as soon as I arrived that since I had arrived, they were changing their plea to guilty. I'd be curious if lawyers here have a thought on this, but apparently its a common play by defendants to plead innocent hoping the prosecution witness never arrives, in which case the case would be dismissed.
...
I believe this is very common. I was a witness for an assault case where the defendant plead guilty after being told I'd been patiently waiting for hours at court to testify.
It must cause lots of difficulty in scheduling cases.
Yes. There is a legal principle, and like many of them it helps law breakers. Any person is entitled to put the case against them to proof. They have to do nothing at all, say nothing, and just wait for the process to occur. If they don't already know they will soon find out from their peers, from experience and from their defence lawyers.
Incentives are given to shorten this - like sentence reduction. But the defendant can ignore it all.
In a just and liberal society subject to the rule of law all sorts of things have to be stacked in favour of the accused.
People are beginning to notice this in a big way because it applies to exceedingly unfashionable and unwoke criminals like white collar criminals, rapists and paedophiles as well as cool kids. It is noticeable that woke and Guardian opinion on this finds it in general objectionable but without any serious conclusions as to how it can be changed. That's because except in superficials, it can't.
Didn't feel that way when I got done for a TS10 a few years back. (It was raining heavily, noone was about so I slowed to a halt over the line on the crossing which took me a couple of feet over it on the front of the car).
Victim surcharge was the most comical bit, there literally was no victim. No need for mens rea from the prosecution !
I agree, obvs, from a practical point of view about this sort of offence. They are mechanical exercises in evidence, the law imposes strict liability, and most defendents (including me) pay up/do the awareness course and move on.
However in fact the same principle applies. If you wish you can put the system to proof and say and do nothing, and if the evidence fails in some way (like the non appearance of a witness) then you will not be convicted.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
If the cops cut their own murder, violence and crimes by a fifth it’s a start I guess.
Ah yes, the old telling them to cut murder, violence and crime. I’m not sure why no-ones thought to do that before.
This is big if it happens. It means if Truss becomes PM we'll have 20% less violent crime. Good news generally, of course, but if you're IN that 20% - a victim who now won't be - it's absolutely terrific and in some cases a lifesaver.
Bit of a shame if you’re in the 79th percentile and get raped
“Sorry love, can’t investigate. Already brought down crime by 20%. That’s it for the year”
I was focusing on the positives but, yep, this is the downside. A 20% reduction is very specific. Assuming it's not performative hot air it implies she's got a list of the crimes that will now be stopped. So if you're not on it - ie you're left in the 80% - you're going to be hacked off about that. Why did Liz Truss allow ME to be mugged (or worse), you'll be asking (if you can still ask things).
This is not the Pareto Principle I don't think but the 80/20 split makes it look like it is. What there is, is a quite sensible low hanging fruit principle going on. Say illegal knife carriers are a proxy for murder and violence, it is quite credible that the 20% least committed and most pussyish knife carriers take only 5% of the effort to deter from knife carrying, and therefore knocking them off is an efficient use of time.
I think the actual Pareto principle says the converse, that the 20% most committed knifeists do 80% of the knife crime.
Well that could be the thinking, I suppose. Although my money is on soundbite to create impression of toughness. What I'd be genuinely impressed by is a commitment - with the necessary funds - to improve the criminal justice system. This is also low hanging fruit since it's been neglected for ages so there should be quick wins aplenty.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
The sheer power of the market will ensure that the status quo doesn't become permanent. The Brexit concocted by your man Boris is, forgive my French, utterly shit and will need to be corrected. Whether this correction takes the form of full re-joining I don't know, but the status quo isn't an option.
A rant here but on the topic of stopping burglaries, telling the courts to stop them would do better than telling the Police to do so.
A revolving door of crime where the same people keep committing the same crime, only to sometimes be arrested, sometimes go to court, only to years later be given a slap on the wrist and sent on their merry way achieves nothing.
Especially when the court's "punishment" is to issue a fine, a fine which will no doubt be paid off by the proceeds of their next burglary if it gets paid at all.
I've three times been the victim of a burglary. First time as a teenager the TV was stolen while I was in the house, I called out to the burglar (thinking it was my mum returning home, I was studying for my exams) and they must have ran off with just the TV. Was never caught who did it.
Second time, 2010, I was woken up by the burglar and went downstairs in my boxers only to see them stood in my kitchen. They ran, I chased after them and got their reg plate they drove off in. They were arrested a week later, they pled guilty and were given a fine and a suspended sentence.
Third time, 2019, they were caught red handed by a Police officer breaking into my place of work not long after I'd locked it up. Police heard the alarm going and literally arrested them red handed. They claimed they were innocent of any crime, that the doors being kicked in was like that when they got there and that the IT they had in their boot they'd picked up because they had the owners permission to remove it. As they were pleading not guilty I had to go to Court to confirm that the doors weren't kicked in when I'd locked them earlier and that I had not given permission to take the goods they'd stolen. Thanks to Covid the Court date was repeatedly postponed and delayed, three separate times I went to Court only to be told it had been postponed, twice because one of the defendants had "tested positive" the night before.
Final time I arrived at Court and the CPS lawyer said as soon as I arrived that since I had arrived, they were changing their plea to guilty. I'd be curious if lawyers here have a thought on this, but apparently its a common play by defendants to plead innocent hoping the prosecution witness never arrives, in which case the case would be dismissed.
After all that messing around, they were issued with a community service order and a fine. No imprisonment. Years of messing around and immediately back on the streets to rob someone else.
I can imagine the frustration! And this is the lived experience that so many people have - crime and ASB out of control and nobody doing anything about it. Labour 1997 coined "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" and that remains the goal. You can't just lock up more scumbags because (a) there aren't enough jails and people don't want to pay for more, and (b) they come out and pick up as they were, having learned new skills to evade capture.
So we have to go after why scumbags burgle and steal and assault and that means early years interventions and specialist support staff through schools and qualifications and jobs. None of which the Tories have any interest in.
Like Patel's fact-free claims about stopping migrants, they can say "get the police to do more" but won't resource them and won't enable the penal system and won't work with families to stop the next generation of scumbags developing.
Its just hot air. Because Truss doesn't care.
Furthermore, people in jail, or indeed on probation, are much less likely to reoffend on release if there is some appropriate education. As I understand it that education has been severely cut over the past few years, to the frustration of those who have been trying to provide it!
I don't understand Tory attitudes to crime. "Lock them up" only works with rehabilitation of the offender. Which they cut. In prisons properly funded to cope. Which they cut. Prosecuted in courts able to cope. Which they cut. Arrested by police officers sufficiently resourced to do so. Which they cut.
I have no principled problem with "lock them up" - criminals should go to jail and be rehabilitated. But to chant that as a mantra and then enact policies which make it less likely? That's just stupid.
Actually, that is not so
Studies show that above a certain tariff, jail sentences do work as a deterrent. And the banged-up criminals do not reoffend
But the sentences have to be huge: 10 years or more
Basically, you have to become Singapore
OK fine - so to achieve that we would still need to invest in the police (cut), in the CPS (cut), in the courts (cut) and in the Prison Service (cut).
However you look at it, the Tories have damaged the ability to fight criminals and criminality. More hot air from the Trusster won't make any substantive change. "I want the police to catch more criminals" - how? She won't fund them.
I've already said Truss' proposals are fairly bonkers. "20% of something must be done". However I can see why she is doing this. It sounds practical and punchy
She's also right about stopping the coppers policing Twitter. That will be hugely popular
Truss might just be the politician Labour should fear most. A skilled right wing populist but without the drawbacks of Boris (even if she has the libido)
However I am still doubtful. She might easily be a disaster, or, more likely than both, simply mediocre, and she goes down to a narrow Starmer NOM win
What the Tories are essentially gambling on is Truss growing into the role.
Right now, she doesn’t have the presentation skills to reach out and engage with the public in a way that would sell “skilled right wing populism.”
However….
She is noticeably getting better each time she does a debate. So there is a chance that with the right advice that she actually finds her feet and turns into a much more formidable opponent.
I don’t think it’s likely. But she’s got more chance of impressing on the upside than Sunak.
Yes, it's like making someone England cricket captain
Even if they are a great player, it can be a nightmare for them - Flintoff - or it can be the making of them - Stokes?
And you never know until you do it
It can, but its a bit too soon to say for Stokes. Lots of special circumstances around the 5 day game this summer so far.
Disagree. I'd say Stokes is already a heroic success as an England captain, for those four last innings victories in a row, shattering multiple records
Even if he loses every game from here on, he did that
True, but it could easily come very unstuck. Note we got to bat last on all four matches - sides will be looking at that somewhat. Don't be surprised if SA bowl first if given the option next month.
I still can't believe batting last is the correct option in tests. More to do with the fact Bairstow and Root are in a vein of otherworldly form at the moment, I think we'd have got all those wins batting 1st and 3rd tbh.
I think the weird ball issue this year (just not the same as previous years) and ECB asking for 5 day pitches, rather than result pitches that give tests barely lasting three days. The pitches on day 5 were amazing in how consistent they were and the ball didn't deviate after the first 20 overs. I'll grant you Root and Bairstow's form too as part of the mix.
A rant here but on the topic of stopping burglaries, telling the courts to stop them would do better than telling the Police to do so.
A revolving door of crime where the same people keep committing the same crime, only to sometimes be arrested, sometimes go to court, only to years later be given a slap on the wrist and sent on their merry way achieves nothing.
Especially when the court's "punishment" is to issue a fine, a fine which will no doubt be paid off by the proceeds of their next burglary if it gets paid at all.
I've three times been the victim of a burglary. First time as a teenager the TV was stolen while I was in the house, I called out to the burglar (thinking it was my mum returning home, I was studying for my exams) and they must have ran off with just the TV. Was never caught who did it.
Second time, 2010, I was woken up by the burglar and went downstairs in my boxers only to see them stood in my kitchen. They ran, I chased after them and got their reg plate they drove off in. They were arrested a week later, they pled guilty and were given a fine and a suspended sentence.
Third time, 2019, they were caught red handed by a Police officer breaking into my place of work not long after I'd locked it up. Police heard the alarm going and literally arrested them red handed. They claimed they were innocent of any crime, that the doors being kicked in was like that when they got there and that the IT they had in their boot they'd picked up because they had the owners permission to remove it. As they were pleading not guilty I had to go to Court to confirm that the doors weren't kicked in when I'd locked them earlier and that I had not given permission to take the goods they'd stolen. Thanks to Covid the Court date was repeatedly postponed and delayed, three separate times I went to Court only to be told it had been postponed, twice because one of the defendants had "tested positive" the night before.
Final time I arrived at Court and the CPS lawyer said as soon as I arrived that since I had arrived, they were changing their plea to guilty. I'd be curious if lawyers here have a thought on this, but apparently its a common play by defendants to plead innocent hoping the prosecution witness never arrives, in which case the case would be dismissed.
After all that messing around, they were issued with a community service order and a fine. No imprisonment. Years of messing around and immediately back on the streets to rob someone else.
I can imagine the frustration! And this is the lived experience that so many people have - crime and ASB out of control and nobody doing anything about it. Labour 1997 coined "Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime" and that remains the goal. You can't just lock up more scumbags because (a) there aren't enough jails and people don't want to pay for more, and (b) they come out and pick up as they were, having learned new skills to evade capture.
So we have to go after why scumbags burgle and steal and assault and that means early years interventions and specialist support staff through schools and qualifications and jobs. None of which the Tories have any interest in.
Like Patel's fact-free claims about stopping migrants, they can say "get the police to do more" but won't resource them and won't enable the penal system and won't work with families to stop the next generation of scumbags developing.
Its just hot air. Because Truss doesn't care.
Furthermore, people in jail, or indeed on probation, are much less likely to reoffend on release if there is some appropriate education. As I understand it that education has been severely cut over the past few years, to the frustration of those who have been trying to provide it!
I don't understand Tory attitudes to crime. "Lock them up" only works with rehabilitation of the offender. Which they cut. In prisons properly funded to cope. Which they cut. Prosecuted in courts able to cope. Which they cut. Arrested by police officers sufficiently resourced to do so. Which they cut.
I have no principled problem with "lock them up" - criminals should go to jail and be rehabilitated. But to chant that as a mantra and then enact policies which make it less likely? That's just stupid.
Actually, that is not so
Studies show that above a certain tariff, jail sentences do work as a deterrent. And the banged-up criminals do not reoffend
But the sentences have to be huge: 10 years or more
Basically, you have to become Singapore
OK fine - so to achieve that we would still need to invest in the police (cut), in the CPS (cut), in the courts (cut) and in the Prison Service (cut).
However you look at it, the Tories have damaged the ability to fight criminals and criminality. More hot air from the Trusster won't make any substantive change. "I want the police to catch more criminals" - how? She won't fund them.
I've already said Truss' proposals are fairly bonkers. "20% of something must be done". However I can see why she is doing this. It sounds practical and punchy
She's also right about stopping the coppers policing Twitter. That will be hugely popular
Truss might just be the politician Labour should fear most. A skilled right wing populist but without the drawbacks of Boris (even if she has the libido)
However I am still doubtful. She might easily be a disaster, or, more likely than both, simply mediocre, and she goes down to a narrow Starmer NOM win
What the Tories are essentially gambling on is Truss growing into the role.
Right now, she doesn’t have the presentation skills to reach out and engage with the public in a way that would sell “skilled right wing populism.”
However….
She is noticeably getting better each time she does a debate. So there is a chance that with the right advice that she actually finds her feet and turns into a much more formidable opponent.
I don’t think it’s likely. But she’s got more chance of impressing on the upside than Sunak.
Yes, it's like making someone England cricket captain
Even if they are a great player, it can be a nightmare for them - Flintoff - or it can be the making of them - Stokes?
And you never know until you do it
The thing about Stokes' captaincy so far is that it has energised several other players in the team, most notably Bairstow, but also Lees and Pope.
This points to the key role of a leader, to get the best out of others, rather than to try to do everything themselves, which is the way Blair believed he had to do things (because if he didn't no-one else would).
The fear here with Truss is that she'd have the same no-hoper non-entities in the Cabinet, but I guess we'll wait and see.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
You shouldn't assume the 'grass is greener' effect will only apply in one direction.
Mainstream opinion in other EU countries was subjected to a wave of anti-Brexit propaganda following the vote, but as time goes by, the disparity between the predictions of doom for the UK and the reality becomes harder to dismiss. This makes the UK interesting as a live example that there is an alternative.
@Schuldensuehner Hey guys, in our weekly @welt Podcast DuZ we argue about econ performance of the UK & discuss whether Germany or the UK is the sicker man. We bet on whether Elon Musk or Twitter will win the epic battle & discuss the Euro & #inflation disaster.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.
You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
I disagree that the prorogation judgement was bizarre. It was entirely in line with the principle that Parliament is supreme. Ignore politicians trying to conflate Parliament with government. They are not the same.
Prorogation of Parliament is within the Queen's prerogative. This is undisputed and the judgement did not change that. However, she exercises her prerogative on advice from the Prime Minister. Is the PM's ability to advise unfettered? Clearly not. If it was, a PM could get the Queen to prorogue Parliament indefinitely, allowing him or her to rule as dictator. The question, therefore, is what are the limits. In this case, it was clear that the government's attempted justification (arguing that they needed 5 weeks to write a Queen's Speech) was not the real reason - it doesn't take anywhere near that long to write a Queen's Speech. Parliament was being prorogued to avoid parliamentary scrutiny of the government's actions. The Supreme Court (rightly in my view) found that, contrary to the government's messaging, the intention was to frustrate Parliament. In line with the basic principle that Parliament is supreme, that is not acceptable and therefore Johnson's advice to the Queen was unlawful.
The attempt by the government to argue that article 9 of the Bill of Rights meant that Parliament would remain prorogued even if Johnson's advice was unlawful was clearly doomed to failure. Article 9 stops the courts interfering in proceedings in Parliament, but, although the prorogation takes place in the Lords and is attended by members of both houses, it cannot in any sensible way be described as a proceeding in Parliament (see Erskine May).
The Supreme Court was clear that what happened next was a matter for Parliament and that, whatever Parliament decided, the courts could not interfere.
It seems to me that this was a perfectly ordinary judgement, entirely in line with the law.
The mention of "5 weeks" here is grossly misleading, since the proposed prorogation included the three week party conference recess. My recollection is that the proprogation proposed was about three sitting days longer than a "standard" one, which certainly didn't justify such a nonsensical and deeply damaging ruling.
But the Supreme Court is a supreme court, and it's been known for decades (at the very least since Roe v. Wade) that supreme courts start with the decision that they want and then try to concoct a justification for it. That's exactly what happened here with prorogation and the Begum case, and it's what will happen with anything pertaining to a proposed early Scottish referendum.
This makes the classic mistake of assuming that all that matters is sitting days.
It is true that Parliament normally goes into recess through the party conferences. However, that is Parliament's decision. It may be that Parliament would have decided not to have a recess or to cut it short, but it is Parliament's decision. The government tried to take this decision out of Parliament's hands.
Crucially, Parliament can still hold the government to account while it is in recess. Committees can continue to meet. Written questions can be asked and must be answered. However, when Parliament is prorogued, all parliamentary business stops. Parliament is no longer able to hold the government to account.
The government's attempt to prorogue Parliament therefore prevented Parliament from carrying out its constitutional role. If, say, there had been a 3-week recess for party conferences followed by a 2-week prorogation, Parliament would have been able to fulfil its constitutional role for 6 of the 8 weeks between the end of the summer recess and exit day. The government was attempting to limit Parliament to just 3 of those 8 weeks.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
You shouldn't assume the 'grass is greener' effect will only apply in one direction.
Mainstream opinion in other EU countries was subjected to a wave of anti-Brexit propaganda following the vote, but as time goes by, the disparity between the predictions of doom for the UK and the reality becomes harder to dismiss. This makes the UK interesting as a live example that there is an alternative.
@Schuldensuehner Hey guys, in our weekly @welt Podcast DuZ we argue about econ performance of the UK & discuss whether Germany or the UK is the sicker man. We bet on whether Elon Musk or Twitter will win the epic battle & discuss the Euro & #inflation disaster.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.
You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.
Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Sure there is all that, but you have to admit "leave" did run quite an effective campaign though.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
You shouldn't assume the 'grass is greener' effect will only apply in one direction.
Mainstream opinion in other EU countries was subjected to a wave of anti-Brexit propaganda following the vote, but as time goes by, the disparity between the predictions of doom for the UK and the reality becomes harder to dismiss. This makes the UK interesting as a live example that there is an alternative.
@Schuldensuehner Hey guys, in our weekly @welt Podcast DuZ we argue about econ performance of the UK & discuss whether Germany or the UK is the sicker man. We bet on whether Elon Musk or Twitter will win the epic battle & discuss the Euro & #inflation disaster.
What is that chart? It isn't real GDP.
It's not my chart, but the point is that if you're basing your predictions on the idea that the UK will inevitably sink into decline, you risk not just being wrong, but having your world-view discredited.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
It may well be what you hope for, but that isn't happening. Each poll on the subject shows a gradual shift against Brexit and for Rejoin. It won't be on the cards for English parties at the next GE, but cannot be ignored forever.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Sure there is all that, but you have to admit "leave" did run quite an effective campaign though.
They didn't really talk about the EEA though. I don't remember denunciations of being able to buy and sell goods abroad, or retire to Spain, or not get ripped off by phone providers.
Incidentally, now that we are free of EU regulations doing Bad Things like imposing caps on phone companies, why hasn't our government mandated them to maintain the same freedom to roam? Our government could stop them, but will not. Why?
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Sure there is all that, but you have to admit "leave" did run quite an effective campaign though.
They didn't really talk about the EEA though. I don't remember denunciations of being able to buy and sell goods abroad, or retire to Spain, or not get ripped off by phone providers.
Incidentally, now that we are free of EU regulations doing Bad Things like imposing caps on phone companies, why hasn't our government mandated them to maintain the same freedom to roam? Our government could stop them, but will not. Why?
In indyref1 the Tories and Unionists went on and on about people in Scotland losing roaming privileges if it went independent of the UK and therefore (in their fantasies) had to leave the EU.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
You shouldn't assume the 'grass is greener' effect will only apply in one direction.
Mainstream opinion in other EU countries was subjected to a wave of anti-Brexit propaganda following the vote, but as time goes by, the disparity between the predictions of doom for the UK and the reality becomes harder to dismiss. This makes the UK interesting as a live example that there is an alternative.
@Schuldensuehner Hey guys, in our weekly @welt Podcast DuZ we argue about econ performance of the UK & discuss whether Germany or the UK is the sicker man. We bet on whether Elon Musk or Twitter will win the epic battle & discuss the Euro & #inflation disaster.
What is that chart? It isn't real GDP.
It's not my chart, but the point is that if you're basing your predictions on the idea that the UK will inevitably sink into decline, you risk not just being wrong, but having your world-view discredited.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
No, I'm right. And it perturbs you
There you go again. Your response to a good post is nothing.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Sure there is all that, but you have to admit "leave" did run quite an effective campaign though.
They didn't really talk about the EEA though. I don't remember denunciations of being able to buy and sell goods abroad, or retire to Spain, or not get ripped off by phone providers.
Incidentally, now that we are free of EU regulations doing Bad Things like imposing caps on phone companies, why hasn't our government mandated them to maintain the same freedom to roam? Our government could stop them, but will not. Why?
In indyref1 the Tories and Unionists went on and on about people in Scotland losing roaming privileges if it went independent of the UK and therefore (in their fantasies) had to leave the EU.
But that wasn’t a fantasy, was it? Leaving the UK would have meant leaving the EU.
It turned out staying in the UK meant leaving the EU as well, but that wasn’t certain at the time.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
It may well be what you hope for, but that isn't happening. Each poll on the subject shows a gradual shift against Brexit and for Rejoin. It won't be on the cards for English parties at the next GE, but cannot be ignored forever.
Starmer is good at what the Russians call maskirovka - deception or disguise. As people largely don't understand the difference between EU and EEA he can't say "lets fix things by rejoining the single market" because the Tories will scream "he wants to reverse Brexit!!!!"
So just say to people that we won't Then after a few months in office present people with "look, what we have is shit, we can retain our independence but strike a better Brexit trade deal which makes your holidays cheaper and your food and things you buy cheaper too".
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
That future visionary could continue, nailing to the floor the problems tying us down:
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Sure there is all that, but you have to admit "leave" did run quite an effective campaign though.
They didn't really talk about the EEA though. I don't remember denunciations of being able to buy and sell goods abroad, or retire to Spain, or not get ripped off by phone providers.
Incidentally, now that we are free of EU regulations doing Bad Things like imposing caps on phone companies, why hasn't our government mandated them to maintain the same freedom to roam? Our government could stop them, but will not. Why?
It would be privileging the EU? A brexity RTR would apply to the Anglosphere, or something
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.
You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.
Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.
As the Brexiteers are not inspecting incoming EU goods, we are a captive market for EU exports, while our own exports are subject to self imposed red tape. It really isn't a very good or for that matter a stable outcome.
Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
It may well be what you hope for, but that isn't happening. Each poll on the subject shows a gradual shift against Brexit and for Rejoin. It won't be on the cards for English parties at the next GE, but cannot be ignored forever.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
But the issue is not our membership of the EU. People in Norway don't want to join the EU because their membership of the EEA means they get all those benefits but still retain the freedoms you mention.
You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.
Britain was in relative decline in the single market, and Brexit was a vote against that. People didn't want to be the low-wage employer of last resort, or a captive market for EU goods.
As the Brexiteers are not inspecting incoming EU goods, we are a captive market for EU exports, while our own exports are subject to self imposed red tape. It really isn't a very good or for that matter a stable outcome.
Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.
I'm just glad that my own trade doesn't have to faff around with UKCA certification and labelling. UKCA is the sodding same as CE, but oh no we have to have our own label and think paying £lots for having it is worthwhile.
Do most Brexit voters even know what "CE" is? Why change it?
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.
My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.
It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.
But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI
The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed
Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”
It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago
The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada
No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.
Truly infantile levels of analysis
Why?
I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.
The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.
When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.
No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time
And these days I care more about wasted time
But just this once I will indulge you
The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do
The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30
The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU
The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU
The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU
All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU
And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges
And there it is. Endex
See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?
Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.
The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.
The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.
But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short
I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse
You have my word
Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
No, I'm right. And it perturbs you
There you go again. Your response to a good post is nothing.
It was a trivially inane post, not least because it says the EU contains "300 million people", when it actually contains 450 million. If @OnlyLivingBoy can't even get a fact as basic as that right, what is the point is responding to anything else he says?
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
Well he has a winning smile and a winning ticket in the national lottery. Oh that's not what you mean?
Unfortunately there is evidence
Russia’s coffers are groaning with foreign gold. The sanctions are not working. The rouble is at an 8 year high. Putin can turn the winter energy screw on Germany, causing a 10% drop in German GDP
The IMF has just predicted a vastly better outcome for the Russian economy next year than was envisaged
Putin is winning
And yet they're scraping the barrel in their forces, using decrepit machines kept out in the open for decades, while Ukraine is using new HIMARS equipment with great effect to destroy Russian ammo dumps.
And the movement recently has been to see the Ukrainians encircling Kherson and potentially about to retake Kherson.
This isn't over yet or all one way traffic.
Though its certainly true that in the Russian/Ukrainian war the first country to surrender was France, and the second might be Germany - but that doesn't mean Putin is winning.
Russia has pretty much gone all in. 85% of it troops from across 8 time zones are now committed to the Ukraine Special Operation. It is so Special, it has left its borders to the east wide open. China could take everything east of the Urals right now if it was so inclined (and didn't mind losing a few cities in a nuclear exchange). All for Putin's vanity project, meant to be remembered across the ages. Well, he got that bit right....
The news on the taking out overnight of the Antonovskiy Bridge is interesting. It is no longer a route through which Russian troops can quickly retreat to Crimea. It is a big piece of the jigsaw for an upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south. Trapping and taking prisoner many thousands of Russian troops is one of the few routes I can see to getting a meaningful round table discussion on ending the war quickly. As well as destroying supply lines, HIMARS delivers Ukraine the capability to cut off Russian escape routes.
The Russians are claiming to be preparing military exercises in the East. Perhaps these will turn out to be a rather Potemkin-style exercise, but Russia's ability to maintain an extended conflict has already been underestimated.
Those whose ability to maintain an extended conflict has been underestimated are the Ukraininans and their backers in the West. How is Russia's extended conflict going on in the west and north of Ukraine? It barely withstood first contact with the enemy.
Russia is now reduced to a terrorist outfit, lobbing missiles into markets to kill normality much as the Taliban and Al Qaeda did. On the ground, they are raping and looting the areas they have "liberated" from "the Nazis".
A terrorist outfit with genocidal capability.
btw there has been an unusual number of jet planes overflying this part of Finland in recent days. Military exercises perhaps?
If the cops cut their own murder, violence and crimes by a fifth it’s a start I guess.
Ah yes, the old telling them to cut murder, violence and crime. I’m not sure why no-ones thought to do that before.
This is big if it happens. It means if Truss becomes PM we'll have 20% less violent crime. Good news generally, of course, but if you're IN that 20% - a victim who now won't be - it's absolutely terrific and in some cases a lifesaver.
Bit of a shame if you’re in the 79th percentile and get raped
“Sorry love, can’t investigate. Already brought down crime by 20%. That’s it for the year”
I was focusing on the positives but, yep, this is the downside. A 20% reduction is very specific. Assuming it's not performative hot air it implies she's got a list of the crimes that will now be stopped. So if you're not on it - ie you're left in the 80% - you're going to be hacked off about that. Why did Liz Truss allow ME to be mugged (or worse), you'll be asking (if you can still ask things).
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
This Barty's "new equilibrium" argument. I saw your leg off, you are really pissed off for a bit but then you get a prosthetic and some crutches and a physio and a blue parking badge, life goes on, and the new normal becomes the normal normal.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
It will take him far.
His alternative was tell the truth and Rebecca Wrong-Daily would be LOTO.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Sunder Katwala @sundersays · 6m I am now blocked by the QC who opened this debate about whether people with brown skin could be viable candidates with the membership. He has clearly now had enough of experts & evidence on this topic!
Not just leftie lawyers having a meltdown about Sunak.
Byline Times, the Waitrose shopper’s Skwawkbox, has had to distance itself from a xenophobic tweet sent by their Global Correspondent. The tweet’s text was bad enough, claiming “Muslims in Britain and India fear potential UK PM Rishi Sunak”. The accompanying image was even more eyebrow-raising…
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.
My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.
It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.
But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI
The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed
Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”
It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago
The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada
No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.
Truly infantile levels of analysis
Why?
I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.
The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.
When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.
No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time
And these days I care more about wasted time
But just this once I will indulge you
The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do
The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30
The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU
The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU
The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU
All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU
And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges
And there it is. Endex
See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?
Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.
The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.
The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.
But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short
I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse
You have my word
Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day
I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone
I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again
No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year
I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes
Is there a medical "long covid" diagnosis with clear symptoms and a programme of treatment? Otherwise isn't it all going be self-diagnosed?
My dad suffered for decades from post-polio syndrome, which the first line of the NHS page on it describes as "a poorly understood condition". Suspect LC will go the same way.
I'm definitely sleeping a lot more (on average +40 minutes) and yet feeling more tired and having to nap during the day, since I recovered from the acute phase of Covid. I'd self-report that as Long Covid.
The GP reckons it's a symptom of depression, but I've never slept more as a result of depression, and I'd been depressed for months (this time) before catching Covid. Nor has my medication changed.
The NHS was already crap at dealing with chronic conditions and it looks like the same will be true of Long Covid.
Which caused me to Google Sunak. Exceptionally rare. Only 45 in India. Most common in...the Ukraine! I assume this is a totally unrelated surname?
On this mostly useless website (it tells me an “interesting” thing about Sunak is that it’s Kanus backwards) I found this
A user from the United Kingdom says the name Sunak means "Derived from Shaunak it means either a teacher or a dog in Sanskrit". According to a user from India, the name Sunak is of Indian (Sanskrit) origin and means "Listener".
Honestly, if Truss had stood up and said: “my goal is that every criminal case is tried within a year” that would be something I would absolutely be 100% behind. The current situation is failing everyone.
Truss says she wants lots of things to happen in terms of public services, but there’s never any talk of resourcing. It’s as if her sheer force of will alone will make struggling public services suddenly more productive.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
It will take him far.
His alternative was tell the truth and Rebecca Wrong-Daily would be LOTO.
The equivalent of her curry and beer event (let's be fair something like this would have happened regardless of leader considering people need to eat and the Daily Mail needs to sell papers) probably would have broken the law but I doubt she'd have put her neck on the line like SKS.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
You always talk about remoaners. But at which point do leavers also "leave or die or quietly accept the situation"?
Leave won, we left the EU and delivered a pretty hard Brexit. Yet to listen to the core of the leave campaign and various newspapers and a lot of voters, its as if the battle hasn't yet been fought.
Its fine to say "remainers won't accept defeat" - but neither will leavers accept victory...
OK, set aside ALL the Brexit arguments, and all the Leaver Remainer stuff
I am talking about human nature. People come to accept the status quo around them as the natural order - this can be good or bad, depending, but it is the case. Revolutions are rare of necessity (especially in the UK)
So Britain will get accustomed to being outside the EU. The irritation of having our passports stamped will ease and then disappear, we will get used to ALL our laws being made by our own democratic politicians, and the weirdness that is EU politics in Brussels (and boy is it weird) will grow evermore distant and alien
Check polls in Norway and Switzerland. No one there proposes to join the EU because the idea is deeply unpopular
The whole Brexit argument will fade like an old carpet in strong sunshine, and Rejoin will come to be seen as a quaint cause adopted by cranks
This Barty's "new equilibrium" argument. I saw your leg off, you are really pissed off for a bit but then you get a prosthetic and some crutches and a physio and a blue parking badge, life goes on, and the new normal becomes the normal normal.
If the cops cut their own murder, violence and crimes by a fifth it’s a start I guess.
Ah yes, the old telling them to cut murder, violence and crime. I’m not sure why no-ones thought to do that before.
This is big if it happens. It means if Truss becomes PM we'll have 20% less violent crime. Good news generally, of course, but if you're IN that 20% - a victim who now won't be - it's absolutely terrific and in some cases a lifesaver.
Bit of a shame if you’re in the 79th percentile and get raped
“Sorry love, can’t investigate. Already brought down crime by 20%. That’s it for the year”
I was focusing on the positives but, yep, this is the downside. A 20% reduction is very specific. Assuming it's not performative hot air it implies she's got a list of the crimes that will now be stopped. So if you're not on it - ie you're left in the 80% - you're going to be hacked off about that. Why did Liz Truss allow ME to be mugged (or worse), you'll be asking (if you can still ask things).
It's performative hot air.
No it's not (at least, not necessarily). Currently, the police have perverse incentives that prevent them from investigating serious crimes, and focus far too much on trivia. Re-ordering their priorities is an important part of fixing that.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
It will take him far.
That is such a ludicrous and hyperbolic statement that says more about your honesty and integrity Pinocchio than it does about Starmer's. You were one of the biggest cheerleaders for Boris Johnson and now you are a supporter of Truss who is probably not much better. You clearly have a similarly flexible attitude to honesty.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
I guess the idea is we will get used to being disadvantaged outsiders. Like happened - and I speak from experience - with smokers after the ban. At first, moan moan moan about having to keep braving the cold and rain every half hour whilst everyone else merrily eats and drinks and chats away inside, but before too long barely a peep, just stoical acceptance of the situation.
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
It will take him far.
I'm hardly Keith's biggest fan (cf: I just called him Keith), but this is ridiculous: there is no evidence that Starmer has anything but his party's (and country's!) best interests at heart, and it's almost trivial to argue that he lied because the Labour party needed him to. Johnson has repeatedly proven that he doesn't care what he says, or how much damage he does to his own party, as long as it serves his best interests.
Come back in 2026, when Starmer has spent months lying to the country (not just his own members) about every stupid minor internal party management issue, and say this again.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Its been remarked on here before but the symptoms reported are in some cases the classic symptoms of anxiety and depression.
That's not to say long covid does not exist, but the savage psychological effects of the lockdown and the propaganda that went along with it are starting to be understood and documented.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Which is not the point. The point is 'long covid' is currently an umbrella term, and finding out the correct help for those who believe they have it is crucial. Its also not sensible to use self reporting statistics without qualification to establish prevalance, which is something that has driven much apocalyptic scare mongering about 'long covid'.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
I guess the idea is we will get used to being disadvantaged outsiders. Like happened - and I speak from experience - with smokers after the ban. At first, moan moan moan about having to keep braving the cold and rain every half hour whilst everyone else merrily eats and drinks and chats away inside, but before too long barely a peep, just stoical acceptance of the situation.
And a continued reduction in the proportion of people who smoke.
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.
My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.
It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.
But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI
The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed
Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”
It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago
The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada
No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.
Truly infantile levels of analysis
Why?
I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.
The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.
When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.
No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time
And these days I care more about wasted time
But just this once I will indulge you
The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do
The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30
The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU
The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU
The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU
All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU
And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges
And there it is. Endex
See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?
Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.
The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.
The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.
But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short
I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse
You have my word
Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day
I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone
I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again
No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year
I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes
I wholeheartedly agree. The hypocrisy of the nationalists is also that their support comes from concentrated areas of support in the most populous areas of Scotland. If Scotland should be allowed referenda every few years, and it was unfair that the more populous part of the UK voted for Brexit and ergo they should be allowed to have another go, then by the same logic the regions of Scotland that disagree should be given further referenda to ask whether they wish to retain their membership of the Union. If they can break up the Union on the whim of a bunch of pea brained Anglophobes nutters in the central belt, then it should be equally democratic to leave parts of Scotland (the best bits hoho) within the Union.
Speaking of pea brain nationalist Anglophobe nutters, has Malcolm been banned?
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Another Twitter activist who isn't having a good week is Alex Andreou. He ended up blocking Owen Jones after this exchange.
@sturdyAlex If you’re a ‘progressive’ witnessing this total Tory meltdown, a competition between two evil fools to embarrass each other, while the country literally burns, and your instinct is to interject and publicly flame Starmer, delete your account and hand over your phone to your mum.
@OwenJones84 So it was OK to literally agitate for people to vote against the Labour party when Theresa May's government was in meltdown, but now anyone who criticises Keir Starmer for abandoning his leadership promises should be silenced?
I understand Owen Jones. He is angry because Starmer lied to him. He knew what he had to say to knobhead hard left members to get elected and made sure that he said it.
And then once elected has focused on driving away as many of the hard left nobbers as possible. What Jonesy should be upset about is that he was foolish enough to listen to the obvious lies and think it to be truth.
How naïve were that lot? It was obvious that Starmer was stringing them along.
Indeed. Sir Keir has the honesty and integrity of Boris Johnson.
It will take him far.
I'm hardly Keith's biggest fan (cf: I just called him Keith)
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
You do away with customs, tariffs, and quotas.
I thought we had a free trade agreement with the EU? Still need checks apparently. I for one did not appreciate this before the referendum, but I have the luxury of having voted remain, unlike others, such as @RochdalePioneers
Jolyon Maugham is a weirdo and a dickhead, part 493
Sunder Katwala @sundersays · 6m I am now blocked by the QC who opened this debate about whether people with brown skin could be viable candidates with the membership. He has clearly now had enough of experts & evidence on this topic!
Not just leftie lawyers having a meltdown about Sunak.
Byline Times, the Waitrose shopper’s Skwawkbox, has had to distance itself from a xenophobic tweet sent by their Global Correspondent. The tweet’s text was bad enough, claiming “Muslims in Britain and India fear potential UK PM Rishi Sunak”. The accompanying image was even more eyebrow-raising…
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
I like the idea of a feeble, talentless Thatcher wannabe climbing instantly to power courtesy of the Tory backwoodsmen, and then falling spectacularly from grace and ushering in a generation of Labour government.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
You do away with customs, tariffs, and quotas.
I thought we had a free trade agreement with the EU? Still need checks apparently. I for one did not appreciate this before the referendum, but I have the luxury of having voted remain, unlike others, such as @RochdalePioneers
Doing away with non-tariff barriers would be good too.
When I google Sunak meaning, I get as the sixth result an article called “what is mansplaining”
My understanding of mansplaining in the Sunak sense is when a Truss (or her supporters) feels she is losing the argument. The corollary of the "Sunak mustn't mansplain" is that he should treat Truss as a lesser, weaker being. Which of course she is, but not because she is a woman.
Honestly, if Truss had stood up and said: “my goal is that every criminal case is tried within a year” that would be something I would absolutely be 100% behind. The current situation is failing everyone.
Truss says she wants lots of things to happen in terms of public services, but there’s never any talk of resourcing. It’s as if her sheer force of will alone will make struggling public services suddenly more productive.
Indeed. Clearly the galley slaves (those remaining anyway) just need to be flogged rather harder and their rations cut further for everything to become hunky dory again.
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
I like the idea of a feeble, talentless Thatcher wannabe climbing instantly to power courtesy of the Tory backwoodsmen, and then falling spectacularly from grace and ushering in a generation of Labour government.
She needs to be quick, she has to engineer a showdown in time to have something to say There is No Alternative about by party conference.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
No, I'm right. And it perturbs you
There you go again. Your response to a good post is nothing.
It was a trivially inane post, not least because it says the EU contains "300 million people", when it actually contains 450 million. If @OnlyLivingBoy can't even get a fact as basic as that right, what is the point is responding to anything else he says?
Shape up, or shut up
It wasn't and when you make posts like this after a few exchanges it just looks like you have lost the argument badly. You might not think you have but that is very much what it looks like.
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.
My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.
It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.
But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI
The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed
Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”
It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago
The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada
No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.
Truly infantile levels of analysis
Why?
I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.
The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.
When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.
No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time
And these days I care more about wasted time
But just this once I will indulge you
The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do
The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30
The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU
The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU
The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU
All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU
And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges
And there it is. Endex
See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?
Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.
The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.
The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.
But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short
I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse
You have my word
Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day
I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone
I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again
No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year
I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes
Didn't take days, just an hour or so. And I've asked you many times and only got abuse for my efforts.
But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.
Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Its been remarked on here before but the symptoms reported are in some cases the classic symptoms of anxiety and depression.
That's not to say long covid does not exist, but the savage psychological effects of the lockdown and the propaganda that went along with it are starting to be understood and documented.
Sajid Javid was among those who said that coming out of lockdown and reducing restrictions would reduce the toll of psychological distress they were causing. Except I looked at the data on this and the picture is much more complicated. Distress hasn’t shown notable improvements since the end of restrictions. Paper just out: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022395622003466 (and see further papers cited therein).
We do need to address high levels of mental health problems in the population.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
Vote Starmer...
And dynamically align with EU policies and regulation.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
Free movement was great. Happy to have that too.
The EU won't give us a bespoke arrangement similar to Switzerland's, which they hate. They were clear during the negotiations that it wasn't on offer.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
Define Free Movement? Supposedly migrants are responsible for driving down wages by completely colonising our towns and cities by simultaneously taking our jobs and claiming benefits. We're now post-Brexit and so many sectors are in deep trouble because of labour shortages. Ask someone in tourism or manufacturing or care if they are against free movement and you'll likely get a different answer to someone in the red wall or rural eastern / southern England.
We never did enact the protections due to us against free movement. I anticipate that an allowance can be made initially to keep numbers manageable in areas we need, with then application of the "you must support yourself rule". Free movement need not mean people coming here to beg or scrounge - we chose to let them.
Anyway, by then the concept of a managed border will be in such disgrace people will be interested in a discussion. Supposedly everyone out there wanted an "Australian-style points system". Which we haven't functionally introduced because we don't people in. The realities of jobs we simply won't do will kick in. As it did in 20 years ago when you couldn't get a plumber or a sparkie until Poles arrived.
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
I like the idea of a feeble, talentless Thatcher wannabe climbing instantly to power courtesy of the Tory backwoodsmen, and then falling spectacularly from grace and ushering in a generation of Labour government.
She needs to be quick, she has to engineer a showdown in time to have something to say There is No Alternative about by party conference.
We should learn from Brexit though and know the terms of separation in advance of the vote, rather than interminable discussions afterwards. People need to know what they are voting on, rather than unicorns frolicking on sunlit uplands.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
No, I'm right. And it perturbs you
There you go again. Your response to a good post is nothing.
It was a trivially inane post, not least because it says the EU contains "300 million people", when it actually contains 450 million. If @OnlyLivingBoy can't even get a fact as basic as that right, what is the point is responding to anything else he says?
Shape up, or shut up
It wasn't and when you make posts like this after a few exchanges it just looks like you have lost the argument badly. You might not think you have but that is very much what it looks like.
Just possibly the departure of Boris is having an effect. He was certainly a lightning rod for anti Brexit sentiment and some of it might just have been hostility to him.
It's also just a less salient issue so the numbers mean less. It wouldn't be surprising if it swings dramatically the other way the next time there is an EU crisis in the news.
Yes. The really embittered Remoaners will either leave or die or quietly accept the situation. Young people will grow up with the UK outside the EU and consider it natural. The idea of submitting ourselves to rule from Brussels will come to seem fanciful and silly - who would do that? They are foreigners, we rule ourselves
This outcome is more likely than anything else (eg Rejoin) as it accords with human nature. In five years time it is quite possible those polls will be completely reversed
This is why I believe Remainers have a narrowing window of opportunity. If they want to make a significant shift back to the EU it has to happen in the next few years, while there is still sentiment on their side. PM Starmer will come under intense pressure to do this
Young people will grow up wondering why they can't travel freely and work and live in Europe like their Irish or Dutch friends can. They will grow up wondering why our economy is under performing, why things cost more here, why they have to queue so long at passport control, why they have to pay roaming charges, why they are locked out of a market of over 300 million people on our doorstep by a decision they played no part in. Even more so in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where even the young people's parents didn't vote for it. Brexiteers will have to do a lot more to demonstrate that Brexit is delivering tangible benefits if they want this decision to stick. Shouting about "Remoaners" doesn't really cut it.
Supposedly the economic benefits are long term and it is unfair to point to the fact that we have made ourselves poorer. Similarly the trade lost to making ourselves uncompetitive in our largest market will eventually be made up by growing trade from all the markets currently far smaller.
TBH all of that is meh - economies grow and shrink and we have suffered loss of GDP before as have other EU countries which isn't the fault of Brexit. So I think what will really get to people is our loss of relevance to the world, and the myriad stupid petty bureaucracies and costs of these getting in our way.
Until in probably not too far into the future a political leader stands up and offers people a vision of alternative - a vision of freedom.
"Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real."
The idea that being outside the EU becomes the new normal also ignores the fact that most countries in Europe are inside the EU, with more still seeking to join. If being outside the EU is so normal, why is Ireland inside the EU? Why is Sweden inside the EU? Why do Swedes deserve to have free movement and access to the single market, but we don't? Why do we get our passports stamped, but our Irish mates don't?
It really would make this simpler if instead of "EU" we could address the real subject - the "EEA". We can deliver Brexit, depart the EU and its political ideals, take back control and keep trading freely in the biggest marketplace on the planet.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Starmer's ruled out FoM which makes that a non starter I think ?
I can't see that we will rejoin the single market or the customs union. But we will likely find ourselves in a single market with the EEA and a customs union...
Are you trying to be funny or do you not understand what you're saying?
Switzerland is not in the EEA yet has access to the single market. In *a* single market, not *the* single market. Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
Indeed. Once the current generation of Leave campaigners leave office, we can move on from their play-acting and sensibly negotiate a bespoke relationship with the EU along similar lines to Switzerland or Turkey. Chiefly, we want to be a free trade zone that stretches from Iceland to Turkey, which was what the Leave campaign promised we would get!
Great! Sign me up
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
You do away with customs, tariffs, and quotas.
I thought we had a free trade agreement with the EU? Still need checks apparently. I for one did not appreciate this before the referendum, but I have the luxury of having voted remain, unlike others, such as @RochdalePioneers
A free trade agreement where all goods have to be categorised and notarised and catalogued is not free trade. Yes the goods I import are zero tariff zero quota zero VAT. But the reams of paperwork needed are slow expensive and pointlessly bureaucratic. Have 3 pallets on a truck and it suffers a breakdown on route and the truck gets swapped out? All your paperwork is invalid and it can't cross until all companies with pallets on board get new ones.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Which is not the point. The point is 'long covid' is currently an umbrella term, and finding out the correct help for those who believe they have it is crucial. Its also not sensible to use self reporting statistics without qualification to establish prevalance, which is something that has driven much apocalyptic scare mongering about 'long covid'.
It is sensible to use self-reported statistics, with caution. We have a brand new condition. We’re still trying to understand it. That takes time. But we can’t sit around waiting for an agreed clinical diagnosis. We still need to understand the epidemiology of what is going on. Doing studies of self-reported cases is a good place to start.
Pay my university £1250, IIRC, and you can come on a research methods course.
Is it? Anyone claiming disability or unemployment benefits gets put through the wringer before the claim is allowed, so their symptoms are independently and harshly assessed.
There are lots of issues around the self reporting aspect of long covid. I'm not aware of a consistent clinically agreed set of symptoms. Its incredibly complex. For some there is certainly physical damage, such as scar tissue in the lungs that will contribute. Others seem much close to FND, including a case that was covered in the Times a couple of months ago. The treatment was psychological for what manifested as panic attacks, rather than other long covid symptoms. I suspect that the 'fear' element that our and other governments used to control the population have had serious downstream consequences. Notably so on those who report no significant covid illness, but self report themselves as 'long covid sufferers'
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
How tiresome of an illness to fail to conform to a set of reporting guidelines. Can we report it to the WHO and get it struck off, or something?
Its been remarked on here before but the symptoms reported are in some cases the classic symptoms of anxiety and depression.
That's not to say long covid does not exist, but the savage psychological effects of the lockdown and the propaganda that went along with it are starting to be understood and documented.
Sajid Javid was among those who said that coming out of lockdown and reducing restrictions would reduce the toll of psychological distress they were causing. Except I looked at the data on this and the picture is much more complicated. Distress hasn’t shown notable improvements since the end of restrictions. Paper just out: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022395622003466 (and see further papers cited therein).
We do need to address high levels of mental health problems in the population.
Fair enough but restrictions have been replaced by other crises - notably the cost of living.
Governments have got used to liking crises - maybe they make populations more malleable...?? Sunak wanted to declare yet another one as part of his manifesto for PM.
AIUI the Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case on whether Holyrood can hold a referendum unilaterally. That's possibly a good sign for the Nats, as the government argument was that the case didn't even deserve a hearing as proper process hadn't been followed.
It's rather difficult to see how they could rule in Sturgeon's favour under the law, but then the Supreme Court has form for bizarre judgements which bear as much relationship to the law as SeanT does to sobriety. Prorogation and Shamima Begum spring to mind.
What the Supreme Court has done is decide the question of prematurity (since the bill has yet to be passed by Holyrood) and competency (since it is a constitutional matter) will be decided together. FWIW I think that they will still determine that the reference of the Bill is premature but they want to deal with the substantive matter too so everyone is clear where they stand.
My very strong expectation is that they will say that this is beyond the competency of the Scottish Parliament and that a referendum cannot proceed without a s30 order. For the reasons @TSE has given no PM is going to be keen to grant a s30 order and risk losing. This raises a real question of democratic deficit in Scotland which is troubling, even for a Unionist like me.
It is indeed troubling. Whether one thinks Scotland should leave the union or not, most reasonable people, and certainly most Scots, would say that they have the right to. If there is no legal route for that right to be exercised then there will be trouble.
But this is not a one way matter. The UK is a joint enterprise in which Scotland has equal (arguably greater) sovereignty with England, Wales and NI
The break-up of the UK would be a profound national trauma that would deeply impact every UK citizen. Inter alia I am sure it would cause economic depression in Scotland and severe recession in rUK as investors fled the chaos and the £ crashed
Therefore Scotland’s right to secede must be balanced with the UK’s right to say “hang on a minute”
It’s not like the UK is some evil colonial power forbidding democracy; the UK Parliament - in which Scotland is fully represented - granted an indyref as recently as 8 years ago
The SNP needs to persuade its own supreme parliament at Westminster to grant a 2nd vote. I doubt that will happen before a generation has actually elapsed. 15-20 years, as in Canada
No that is bollocks. If Scotland wants to leave the Union then of course it will affect other countries in the Union but they don't have a veto. By your argument, the EU should have had the right to refuse the Brexit referendum. England, Wales and NI should have the same unilateral right to seceed, of course.
Truly infantile levels of analysis
Why?
I had the same argument with you recently and you came out with the same type of reply i.e. you stop arguing and just throw insults. The analogy is a good one.
The bizarre thing is when we had the discussion before you actually said it mattered not one jot what trauma leaving the EU caused even if massive because we gained independence (it trumped all) and then (as above) gave the trauma of Scotland leaving the union as a reason for not allowing it.
When called out on the inconsistency each time you stop arguing and resort to insults.
No, I give up arguing with people whose argumentation is so clueless or stupid it is waste of my time
And these days I care more about wasted time
But just this once I will indulge you
The differences between the Union of the EU and the Union of the United Kingdom are so vast they barely need explaining. But apparently they do
The UK is 300 years old; the EU is at best 70 years old, more like 30
The UK’s identity has been forged through 300 years of shared endeavour and pooled resources: building an empire, making a great nation, fighting existential wars; not so for the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared and supreme parliament which creates and passes our laws; not so the EU
The nations of the UK have a shared head of state deeply woven into our shared history and shared institutions; not true of the EU
The nations of the UK share one common language; unlike the EU
The nations of the UK share - with variations - a military, a seashore, a health service, a national broadcaster, a culture, a media, a demos, a character, a cuisine, a trade pattern, a climate, an architecture, an archipelago off the northwest coast of Europe, a sense of humour; not so the EU
All of which makes leaving the UK infinitely and impossibly complex compared to the already-painful process of quitting the EU
And finally, there are two DIFFERENT processes for leaving both. If you want to quit the EU you can trigger Article 50 unilaterally. In the UK it is different, you must get permission from Parliament at Westminster to have a referendum: as sturgeon acknowledges
And there it is. Endex
See how much better it is when you engage rather than insulting people?
Some of these are good arguments. For me the question of whether Scotland should be independent is finely balanced.
The UK in its present form is 100 years old, not 300, of course.
The argument about whether Scotland can legally unilaterally secede is of course different from whether it can morally. We can all read the legislation. My contention is that it is a moral outrage that Scotland's moral right to self determination is not matched by a legal right to do so, as it is in the EU. Even committed unionist Scots like DavidL find this troubling. I think the idea that Scotland is on some deep level "sovereign" regardless of legal status is widely held in Scotland by those on all sides of the independence debate. It is perhaps worrying that it is not shared in England.
But everything I said is obvious. If you need it spelled out to you then you are a cretin. I have given up explaining things to individual cretins: life is too short
I will not engage with you again, other than to hurl squalid, excessive and unjustified abuse
You have my word
Hi Leon, I read this exchange with interest. I said we'd return to this one - Brexit v Sindy - middle of this week, didn't I? Rhetorical only (I did) and it's Wednesday, the exact middle of this week. And seems you're talking about it anyway.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Mate, this is not some startling insight. I say as much every day
I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone
I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again
No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year
I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes
Now you are goalpost moving.
This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.
This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums
This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.
This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
I got my first chainsaw (Bosch, bit with an Oregon chain) last winter. Just think before you saw and it will be fine. Have managed so far not to slice off anything that isn't wood. And yes, the mountain of lumber now stored in the garage will keep us going for years. Thanks Arwen!
Comments
a Hindu seer or sage, or, earlier, a Vedic poet
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/rishi
Quite true, of course.
However in fact the same principle applies. If you wish you can put the system to proof and say and do nothing, and if the evidence fails in some way (like the non appearance of a witness) then you will not be convicted.
This points to the key role of a leader, to get the best out of others, rather than to try to do everything themselves, which is the way Blair believed he had to do things (because if he didn't no-one else would).
The fear here with Truss is that she'd have the same no-hoper non-entities in the Cabinet, but I guess we'll wait and see.
"Underneath the rhetoric, the old barriers remained. Not just against the outside world, but between the European countries. Not the classic barriers of tariffs, but the insidious ones of differing national standards, various restrictions on the provision of services, exclusion of foreign firms from public contracts.
We must get the basics right. That meant action. Action to get rid of the barriers. Action to make it possible for insurance companies to do business throughout Europe. Action to let people practice their trades and professions freely. Action to remove the customs barriers and formalities so that goods can circulate freely and without time-consuming delays. Action to make sure that any company could sell its goods and services without let or hindrance. Action to secure free movement of capital.
The fact is that although we haven't done very well in Europe, Europe has done very well in Britain. Our national failure to make the most of the opportunities when we left the EU was part of a much more general failure.
In those days, Britain was in the forefront of those resisting change, in fighting to preserve the barriers. Some in Britain still see it that way, but they are getting fewer and fewer. The difference is that now we can look forward with confidence to sweeping away the barriers."
Mainstream opinion in other EU countries was subjected to a wave of anti-Brexit propaganda following the vote, but as time goes by, the disparity between the predictions of doom for the UK and the reality becomes harder to dismiss. This makes the UK interesting as a live example that there is an alternative.
Here's a recent example from a German podcast:
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1547614669065490433
@Schuldensuehner
Hey guys, in our weekly @welt Podcast DuZ we argue about econ performance of the UK & discuss whether Germany or the UK is the sicker man. We bet on whether Elon Musk or Twitter will win the epic battle & discuss the Euro & #inflation disaster.
You really think in this connected global digital age that people here will accept being poorer, more constrained and less connected than everyone around them? Name me one of the countries you visited recently who learned to accept their own status quo having seen the differences elsewhere.
It is true that Parliament normally goes into recess through the party conferences. However, that is Parliament's decision. It may be that Parliament would have decided not to have a recess or to cut it short, but it is Parliament's decision. The government tried to take this decision out of Parliament's hands.
Crucially, Parliament can still hold the government to account while it is in recess. Committees can continue to meet. Written questions can be asked and must be answered. However, when Parliament is prorogued, all parliamentary business stops. Parliament is no longer able to hold the government to account.
The government's attempt to prorogue Parliament therefore prevented Parliament from carrying out its constitutional role. If, say, there had been a 3-week recess for party conferences followed by a 2-week prorogation, Parliament would have been able to fulfil its constitutional role for 6 of the 8 weeks between the end of the summer recess and exit day. The government was attempting to limit Parliament to just 3 of those 8 weeks.
@Leon said nobody in Switzerland or Norway want into the EU. Why would they - 90% of the action is the EEA and both have full and free access. We - uniquely in western Europe - do not.
Incidentally, now that we are free of EU regulations doing Bad Things like imposing caps on phone companies, why hasn't our government mandated them to maintain the same freedom to roam? Our government could stop them, but will not. Why?
It turned out staying in the UK meant leaving the EU as well, but that wasn’t certain at the time.
So just say to people that we won't Then after a few months in office present people with "look, what we have is shit, we can retain our independence but strike a better Brexit trade deal which makes your holidays cheaper and your food and things you buy cheaper too".
Not bad for consumers though as we continue to benefit from excellent quality consumer goods from the EU, just a problem for exporters.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU but is not in the ECU.
I think it may be you who does not understand. The Europeans are happy to lay on lashings of fudge. No to joining the customs union, but here is your bespoke customs access arrangement which copies it. You Swiss want independence but also access? Here is your bespoke deal which gets your entry to the single market.
The UK can have the same. We just need to ask for it.
lol
What UK Thinks: EU
@whatukthinks
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (+2); wrong 49 (-4). Fwork 21-22.7 (ch since 13-14.7). https://bit.ly/3PCU9yj
Do most Brexit voters even know what "CE" is? Why change it?
It will take him far.
So, that question of mine: As somebody with such a burning love of absolutist untrammelled national sovereignty that iyo we had to have Brexit regardless of the practical consequences, how come you have zero empathy for the similar (and arguably stronger) argument for Sindy - stronger because Scotland, unlike the UK in the EU, lacks sovereign nation status - and a pretty visceral opposition to it ever happening?
I've been able to answer this to my own satisfaction, you'll be happy to hear.
The fact is you DO have empathy for the Sindy case. Of course you do. It'd be plain bizarre if you didn't. But the empathy you feel is swamped by your horror of what Sindy would mean. To wit no more Britain. Your love of (and pride in) Britain and its associated thing - Britishness - is real and it's bone-deep. It's not an annex to your persona it's integral. You clear Casino Royale's quite challenging bar for a Patriot with room to spare. This is why the thought of Sindy pains you so.
Very pleased with this. Think it's both true and fair.
Shape up, or shut up
All need help, but the self reporting aspect (especially as beloved of iSAGE) does no one any favours.
btw there has been an unusual number of jet planes overflying this part of Finland in recent days. Military exercises perhaps?
Exceptionally rare. Only 45 in India.
Most common in...the Ukraine! I assume this is a totally unrelated surname?
Byline Times, the Waitrose shopper’s Skwawkbox, has had to distance itself from a xenophobic tweet sent by their Global Correspondent. The tweet’s text was bad enough, claiming “Muslims in Britain and India fear potential UK PM Rishi Sunak”. The accompanying image was even more eyebrow-raising…
https://order-order.com/2022/07/27/byline-times-distances-itself-from-correspondents-xenophobic-rishi-tweet/
I am a Briton and I love Britain. I don't want it broken up. Is this some bizarre new emotion you've just encountered? You'll be surprised to hear I am not alone
I am also a democrat. Scotland deserves a say. They had a say in 2014. Now for the sake of all Britain, we wait a generation to see if the mood changes, and they can have a say again
No country can survive constant referendums on its break up, any more than a marriage can survive the husband filing for divorce every year - then changing his mind at the last moment - year after year
I am sorry you have apparently spent days trying to work out something I could have told you in two minutes
The GP reckons it's a symptom of depression, but I've never slept more as a result of depression, and I'd been depressed for months (this time) before catching Covid. Nor has my medication changed.
The NHS was already crap at dealing with chronic conditions and it looks like the same will be true of Long Covid.
A user from the United Kingdom says the name Sunak means "Derived from Shaunak it means either a teacher or a dog in Sanskrit".
According to a user from India, the name Sunak is of Indian (Sanskrit) origin and means "Listener".
https://www.names.org/n/sunak/about
Chaminda Jayanetti
@cjayanetti
Sources have tipped Boris Johnson to become Christopher Hope's new daddy
Betfair next prime minister
1.23 Liz Truss 81%
5.2 Rishi Sunak 19%
Next Conservative leader
1.18 Liz Truss 85%
5.4 Rishi Sunak 19%
Come back in 2026, when Starmer has spent months lying to the country (not just his own members) about every stupid minor internal party management issue, and say this again.
But how do you get that without Free Movement?
That's not to say long covid does not exist, but the savage psychological effects of the lockdown and the propaganda that went along with it are starting to be understood and documented.
Speaking of pea brain nationalist Anglophobe nutters, has Malcolm been banned?
@RMTunion
on Liz Truss threatening to effectively abolish the right of workers to withdraw their labour.
https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1551975194662780931
This is muy importante, where the crunch is gonna come is lizzie believing her own maggie publicity and tAKIng oN tEh UNions. and losing. Very soon.
In related news, I have just assembled a new Oregon electric chainsaw and am off out to secure my fuel supplies/keep the major trauma unit at Derriford busy.
That hairy coat of yours with nothing underneath
Not sure you have a name, so I will call you Keith
Never having heard of Byline Times, I initially read it as being a Waitrose house mag/website.
That, along with Betfair's Premium charge can lead to this mind...
But never mind, we're there now. And it was important. I spend a lot of time on here and you are the most prolific poster. Meaning you're a big part of my life, for better or worse, and I like to understand things that are a big part of my life.
Mysteries remain - eg why iyo is Britain so special that we have to be outside the EU to be our full and best selves when the likes of France and Germany and most every other European country seem to think they can manage that as a member - but this can wait for another time. Perhaps the middle of next week.
(and see further papers cited therein).
We do need to address high levels of mental health problems in the population.
And dynamically align with EU policies and regulation.
...
We never did enact the protections due to us against free movement. I anticipate that an allowance can be made initially to keep numbers manageable in areas we need, with then application of the "you must support yourself rule". Free movement need not mean people coming here to beg or scrounge - we chose to let them.
Anyway, by then the concept of a managed border will be in such disgrace people will be interested in a discussion. Supposedly everyone out there wanted an "Australian-style points system". Which we haven't functionally introduced because we don't people in. The realities of jobs we simply won't do will kick in. As it did in 20 years ago when you couldn't get a plumber or a sparkie until Poles arrived.
Vs put goods on truck, drive truck, unload truck.
Pay my university £1250, IIRC, and you can come on a research methods course.
Governments have got used to liking crises - maybe they make populations more malleable...?? Sunak wanted to declare yet another one as part of his manifesto for PM.
This argument has nothing whatsoever to do with whether you love Briton or not.
This argument has nothing to do with multiple referendums
This argument has nothing to do with whether they had a say in 2014 or not and waiting a generation.
This argument is about the inconsistency in your stance re Sindy and EU. You used the exact mirror image to argue for and against Independence in the two scenarios. That is what the argument is about. The argument is about you being irrational.