Whoever wins it is going to be difficult for CON to stay in power – politicalbetting.com
Whoever wins it is going to be difficult for CON to stay in power – politicalbetting.com
We are going to hear a lot during this final phase of the Tory leadership contest about which of Truss or Sunak is best able to lead the party to another general election majority.
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Worse, I cannot see either Sunak or Truss changing that. The Conservatives need a few years out of power, when hopefully a sane Howard-style character can bash down the loonies.
And fortunately the thought of PM Starmer does not frighten the horses too much.
In a wave election like 97 or 2010 none of this is going to matter a damn as @NickPalmer found to his cost but will SKS really produce a wave or just a shifting of the tide? If it is the latter then 40 odd seats is quite a safety margin. FWIW I really don't see much of a threat in the blue wall. What the Lib Dems can do in a bye election where their resources are focused on a single seat is not matched in a GE and their polling and profile is currently awful. Labour are much more of a threat and some red wallers will undoubtedly be lost. What the SNP do will very much depend on where we are with referendums etc.
Everything depends on how the new leader performs. He or she starts from a good position thanks to Boris but also starts with serious work to do, again thanks to Boris. A Tory government with a much smaller majority remains a possibility.
And many people simply don’t like the Tories any more. Our MP managed to get a fairly important private members bill through for regulation of taxis and mini cans.
I’ve mentioned it to a few locals when things turn to politics and even those who voted for him turn round and say how did that help us - he could have done something for us
A Labour minority or Lab-Lib coalition seems eminently possible.
Although they'd probably end up with Corbyn's devotion, Blair's smarminess, Campbell's nastiness and McDonnell's policies...
Betfair next prime minister
1.43 Liz Truss 70%
3.2 Rishi Sunak 31%
Next Conservative leader
1.47 Liz Truss 68%
3.1 Rishi Sunak 32%
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.ferrari-evaluating-taking-penalty-with-new-engine-for-sainz-in-french-gp.25v1ldS2OSWuSL2X8dzkIw.html
Truss down to 1.5, so glad I topped up on her a little at 1.78 yesterday.
55-60% 3.8
50-55% 4.4
60-65% 4.7
45-50% 5.5
40-45% 7.8
Under 40% 9.2
65-70% 10.5
Over 70% 14.5
Independent inspector of borders has not met the Home Secretary since appointed 15 months ago:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1550066344724516865?t=Y2mN3hljT0QD78En5n2NRw&s=19
Gross incompetence in failing to get biometrics such as photographs or fingerprints on small boat arrivals who then just disappear:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/21/uk-action-against-small-boats-possibly-counterproductive-review-finds-border-force
Brexit divorce bill jumps by £10 billion
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1550160350657536000?t=Mo3zKY5WrYVLTmXzTav5xQ&s=19
I am sure there is more to come from this worst government in living memory.
Yet you think it's looking 'rosier' just because the party you favour *might* win power? When there's very little *any* UK party can do about these things?
I'm generally an optimist, but I see very little rosy about the next five or so years at a macro level. As a family we might do well (and I hope we do), but lots of people are going to be hurting.
Especially the taxes we are talking about, NI doesn't tax those with extreme wealth they can not spend. It isn't a tax on wealth and the wealthy tend to be using schemes that are not PAYE to get their income through so aren't paying NI anyway.
Instead NI is a tax that deliberately only targets working people, especially those on PAYE.
The simplest way to think about it is that a wealthy landlord who doesn't work, with a property portfolio making their income through rent and housing inflation won't pay a penny in extra tax from either NI or Corporation Tax rises.
However a young tenant who is on PAYE, possibly with Tuition Fee repayments too etc, will be paying extra NI. And their employer facing extra Employers NI too, and extra Corporation Tax.
Is that fair in your eyes? Is it good for the economy? Should a young tenant with tuition fee repayments, no net assets, paying rent, income tax and NI on PAYE be the person we should be targeting for higher taxes instead of those not on PAYE who are living off unearned incomes?
As Clinton said - “it’s the economy, stupid”
And there are whole sets of hidden disasters which this government has created over the last few weeks - doctors are going to look at heir pay and move abroad, if teachers took one look at next years budgets they will be leaving to escape the forthcoming redundancies (as I explained on Tuesday).
If things look bad now we haven’t seen anything yet. It’s likely that by January / March Boris will be celebrating that he left in September.
India has major problems. However, if we could capture 5% of that optimism in the U.K. we could go far. It struck me how self defeating a lot of our politics can be.
I don't know how the EU pensions are structured. My guess is that there is no fund and the money required simply comes from the states on a cash basis but even then the increase will be in nominal terms, not real terms. And, of course, we would have paid it had we remained members as well.
Other question - how do they find the money to pay redundancy packages? Or did you cover that on Tuesday as well (I haven’t checked over old threads recently)?
Where you’re right is that it will take more than LibDem gains (barring some tidal anti-Tory wave in the south) to depose the Tories. Labour’s results in actual elections still aren’t good enough.
On the bright side for the Tories, despite having been royally shafted by them several times only, the DUP knows it has nowhere else to go, and it was notable that in the confidential vote, they still have confidence in the Tories.
Martin Baxter is currently predicting that the Scottish Conservatives will lose 4 out of their 6 seats. The only Holds would be:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - John Lamont, who says he is "gutted" after his preferred candidate Penny Mordaunt was knocked out of the race.
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - David Mundell, a vociferous opponent of Boris Johnson and no pal of Liz Truss, who has snubbed LGBT Tories.
However, even a modest amount of SCon to SLD tactical unwind would see even those two seats fall to the SNP.
The system is running down and I see half a dozen simultaneously crises hitting this autumn.
A somewhat bland week, although the Tory score goes to show that holding seats doesn't necessarily count as good results, when you hold them narrowly after many cycles of winning massively (or unopposed). They can't catch a break, can they?
Lab +45
LDm +3
Con -51
Adjusted Seat Value
Lab +0.7
LDm +0.0
Con -0.5
In 2010 Mundell got 38% of the vote, the LibDems got 20%
In 2015 Mundell got 40% of the vote, the LibDems got 2.5%
In 2017, the great LD-to-Con switch, Mundel got 49.5% and the Lib Dems got 4%
BRS is a different story with a classic mass LD-to-Con Swing in 2017.
Discuss.
Alistair Campbell: Have the Lebedev story and Chequers Party story been on the news yet?
I think the markets are pricing next government probabilities roughly at Labour led 67%, Tory led 32%; there being for practical purposes no other options, though lots of detailed sub-options.
My view is this: it is no longer the case that there is an equal chance of a Lab or Tory led next government, but the present figures underestimate the Tory chance.
Though personally I think it is 'Time for a change' the fact that both lots of MPs and Tory members think that Truss is the right answer could mean more than one thing.
It may mean that the Tories have surrendered to their karma and agree that a time in opposition is the right thing.
Or they may actually have the public right and that dim populist amoral junk has not yet run its course and could win the next election.
Tories 40%+ chance is my view. I hope I am wromg.
But if Major had lost very narrowly and a Lab/Lib/SNP/Plaid grouping had had to explain themselves over Black Wednesday, he would probably have been back in power with a large majority in about 12 months and had a long, much easier time as PM.
And that is all I will say.”
rcs1000
Super injunctions, daddy hasn’t given permission etc etc etc…
Am I getting close?
I've never believed a politician could get a superinjunction viably because any opposing politician in the Lord or the Commons could just break the superinjunction and then the story could be reported on. Plus stories leak globally across the internet anyway - if there really were a story it would be on a Canary/Guido style website by now.
Just as prices in futures markets are better predictors of current prices than of the spot price in the future, so people seem to surrender to the prevailing mood in making future predictions in politics.
Looks like the DCT Lib Dems pretty much shifted en masse to the SNP and not the Tories, as happened in other airts.
There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lips.
An awful lot of hard work is required before we witness that happy outcome.
For a short time it was available on the NHS but being under patent it was eventually deemed uneconomic. Now it's no longer under patent (and the price has been reduced) there was a Government petition to ask for NICE to rerun the economic model based on the lower pricing.
I've just received the response to the petition that says it was rejected due to cost - which means they've spent a few hours writing a response that misses the single point of the petition - costs have been reduced, could you get NICE to rerun the analysis...
🤦♂️
Euro 2022 Quarter final three
Leigh, tonight
Sweden 1.33
Draw 5.6
Belgium 12.5
Its not so much that the Tories are uncoalitionable, but as things stand without a massive change Parliament is uncoalitionable.
The SNP will never enter a coalition with anyone.
The LDs are too small to make a viable coalition partner (per 2010) anymore.
So too are the DUP and assorted extras.
If there were to be a viable coalition in a Hung Parliament then the secondary party really ought to be the SNP quite probably - but they'll never do it.
The most we're going to have is supply on a case by case basis realistically - and if there's no formal coalitions and just supply on case by case bases then there's no reason why that can't be a Conservative Prime Minister doing that as per May in 2017.
It's an antibody treatment, so generic competition doesn't reduce the cost in the same way as chemical therapies.
From what I recall it's not particularly effective, so it's quite likely rerunning the calculations wouldn't change the outcome.
They have even too small to hold any balance of power ever since but who knows, if Liz does an Amber Heard then they may gain a couple of dozen seats and be in a position to demand what I’ve described from Starmer.
And it isn't easy to fix as there isn't enough land around Dover to provide the space available....
Hope everyone driving to France is using the Tunnel...
Just the first weekend of the school holidays....
I used the Tunnel back in quiet mid-April, and even then stretches of the motorway were being used as the lorry car park and car drivers had an hour-long detour along Kent country lanes to reach the Tunnel, with police checkpoints at every major junction to stop lorries using the same lanes to jump the queues. I believe this is tying up so many police that Kent has called in help from the Met, Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire who are sending policemen and women to stand all day watching holidaymakers drive past.
It's hard to take credit for government policy when acting that way.
Another question to consider is whether we see a Labour-Conservative coalition, possibly involving part only of one or both parties.
The argument that somehow Westminster is different doesn't apply because if it is that different it doesn't work at all, as you indeed say.
It's why the saner taxi apps keep payment well outside the app and why Uber have a very large VAT bill that will eventually need to be paid (the delays are useful though as it means the drivers themselves will be able to escape any attempt Uber makes to recover the money due to time lapsing).
I really enjoyed deliveroo/just eat during the lockdowns - really wanted to keep my brilliant local pizzeria going. But I don't get the model now - for the same price I can get table service, dishes washed, get out my poxy flat etc etc
All we need now is for the police to say that their resources are so stretched that they're not able to investigate suspicious deaths of the over-70s.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-life-as-a-political-spouse
Bloody French, not willing to spend more on border staff post-Brexit. Don’t they know we’re British? How dare they inconvenience us.
Most likely Labour need to win most seats or at least have more seats with the LDs combined than the Tories to get in power
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/30/co-leaders-of-scottish-greens-to-become-ministers-at-holyrood
It's about the recalibration of politics away from objective truth and towards the expression of will. Sunak might have voted Leave but his entire agenda, from his Cameron-era presentation to his focus on actually existing economic conditions, is completely antithetical to this.
We long ago entered the mood-music stage of Brexit. Nothing to do with agreements and protocols and alignment and all that. Everything to do with a fantasy land version of reality where faith destroys all obstacles.
She's committing to that, just like May did in 2016. Hardline Brexiters are perfectly open to converts as long as they refuse to recognise reality. But the moment they go back to recognising reality, as May did with the backstop, they revert to being considered Remainers.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1550388766115864582