As a change from wasting time talking about the weather, the rugby or the Conservative leadership election , how about a real honest-to-goodness example of futility in extremis?
Yes, it's the Stodge Saturday Patent or as it's also known, the Bookmakers' Winter Holiday Fund.
There's a lot to be said for evening racing if you enjoy bad music, copious numbers of drunks, vomit and badly overcooked or undercooked burgers.
Simply back these three and you can have the experience without the sights, sounds or smells:
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
I think they're all bad choices, but some are less bad than others. Frankly, I would think Mordaunt would probably be the least bad of them. Which doesn't mean I think she'd be good.
However, she'd probably also be the one most likely to shore up support in the Blue Wall, where I would prefer Tory support to collapse, so it's a country-versus-party thing with me. We'll see what happens.
Searching for "180 innovations," the only thing I did find was this, but I'd hope to have misunderstood, because "a full range of health and beauty products" might not help the current loading in the NHS.
Nearly all their pictures are of thermometers, so it may be this she meant. They also claim 70% "private" marketshare, which I assume means US consumers, but still suggest they're a big player.
Seems odd if she's singling them out, but not quite as bizarre as the thought of steam engines in hospitals.
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
Searching for "180 innovations," the only thing I did find was this, but I'd hope to have misunderstood, because "a full range of health and beauty products" might not help the current loading in the NHS.
Nearly all their pictures are of thermometers, so it may be this she meant. They also claim 70% "private" marketshare, which I assume means US consumers, but still suggest they're a big player.
Seems odd if she's singling them out, but not quite as bizarre as the thought of steam engines in hospitals.
I'm wondering where she's going to put the nuclear reactors.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
I did not watch the debate. Did any of them talk about the cost of living and, if so, did they have any actual proposals, rather than simple platitudes?
Cutting taxes sorts things apparently. Which is great because everyone likes that anyway. All gain no pain. Easy peasy this macro economic management stuff. Don't know why it creates so much argument.
Just read the right-winger;s discussion in this very thread which is now moving on to having health insurance or killing pensioners. Odd considering the grey vote wields such power over the Tories (or is this the younger tories way of getting out from under?)
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
Indeed, as I said earlier some secondary records will be broken. And one might be the steepest, quickest change in max temps
Dr Seth Thévoz🇺🇦 @SAThevoz Liz Truss opened on her childhood, saying she was inspired to go into politics by "lots of children being let down by low educational standards".
Truss (b.1975) was entirely educated under Conservative governments, from primary school to university (1979-96).🤨
The star of the show was Krishnan Guru-Murthy. Perfectly balanced gave everyone an equal chance let the program flow and as a result we all found out what we needed to know. Rarely have I seen one of those run as smoothly or be as invigilated so well.
The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.
2 are children of university professors. As a university professor, it makes me glad I don’t have kids.
Badenoch's Professorial mother is a first cousin of the Vice President of Nigeria, someone now running for President.
There is a small possibility that we will have a PM who is first cousin (once removed) to the President of Nigeria. A famously corrupt group as someone once said:
Her burger flipping at McDonalds is about as accurate a background story as how Sunak was a waiter in a Southampton curry house.
Are you saying she didn't flip burgers in McDonalds? What point are you making exactly? And are you suggesting that Nigeria being a country with a corruption problem means her relative is therefore automatically suspect and perhaps even Kemi herself because she is a relative?
I think if Kemi was on the political left this is the kind of stuff that would face a significant backlash.
The problem is that, whilst I'm sure Kemi had told the truth about her life story, she might not have told the whole truth...
The story which KB has allowed to develop is a good one, moving here to escape a bad country as a child, pulling herself up by her bootstraps (state school, McDonald's), proper degree (computing! white heat!).
The other bits of the story (daughter of globetrotting academic, second degree in law, worked in consultancy and financial services, associate director at Coutts and later at The Spectator)... they give a different impression. Not one that makes her ineligible, she's clearly very talented. And everyone prudent edits their life story to best effect. But it gives a different impression.
At least Rishi has never made a secret of his squillionaire credentials.
Most people have had a variety of life experiences and can spin it one way or another. I could tell you two different, completely true but partial, stories about my life that would make me sound like two entirely different people.
Yup, I think with Kemi, the fact that she has multiple threads to her life is a huge positive. Loads of our politicians simply go directly from Oxford or Cambridge into a think tank then into the party and then a SpAd, eventually becoming an MP when enough credit has been built up for a run at a safe seat.
Alongside Tulip Sadiq wrt Bangladesh, it will potentially be an interesting comparative case study how it develops (if at all) and how it is treated by colleagues / opposition / media.
Dr Seth Thévoz🇺🇦 @SAThevoz Liz Truss opened on her childhood, saying she was inspired to go into politics by "lots of children being let down by low educational standards".
Truss (b.1975) was entirely educated under Conservative governments, from primary school to university (1979-96).🤨
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
Indeed, as I said earlier some secondary records will be broken. And one might be the steepest, quickest change in max temps
The fastest change in temperatures is usually at the end of a very cold spell as a warm front comes in.
eg Altnaharra went from -27C to +1C in a short time period.
To provide some balance to my view that Truss would be a disaster:
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Truss is the answer for running Britain well & making it a better country for its citizens & a better contributor internationally. That is the point of politics & I have faith in the voters that they will reward delivering on that.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
Indeed. Not many Climate Change deniers about these days.
Who was the guy on here a few years back who was confidently predicting a mini-ice age in a year or two? (Not a trick question - I know it wasn't you!)
Health. Elephant in the room is that it's becoming unaffordable and, long-term, people are going to need to save to supplement the NHS in retirement in the same way they do for pensions to supplement state pensions.
The political skill here will be to introduce such a reform whilst dodging the inevitable "destroying the NHS" or "privatising the NHS" straplines. Have state pensions been 'destroyed' by the introduction of private ones ?
I'm not hopeful.
I suggested individual savings accounts, analogous to SIPPs for health and social in my first PB header:
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
UKV showing 41C Tuesday. I’m now pretty confident 40C will be broken. If not on Monday then Tuesday.
Record will go to Brogdale in Kent, just like 2003.
Look out for all time record attempts in France (less likely but not impossible), Netherlands (probable), Belgium (probable), Denmark (outside chance on Wed). Portugal has already fallen.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
ISTR What a scorcher headlines from my childhood whenever it hit 70°F. Which is 21 in new money.
Would say not. I still think the membership are going to be for Mordaunt, and in the absence of her then Rishi. Truss? No. Just.....no.
Sunak was head and shoulders more convincing than anyone else last night.
I had been of the opinion, probably from what I read on here, that Mordaunt (who I still suspect will win) would tear Starmer apart when she becomes PM. On last night's performance that isn't going to happen. Sunak, on the other hand...
He is all presentation, and deeply tainted by hanging on too long with Dead Dog.
Frankly it is ridiculous the men in suits haven't stopped this circus and just made Sunak PM so we can all sleep at nights.
He is obviously clever, diligent, hard working, sober and sensible. He doesn't come across as someone who the job will send demented which can't be said of every one of the other candidates.
Mr Ed, call me Dr Suspicious if you like, but do I get the distinct impression you are not a big admirer of Mr Sunak?
He has a point, though.
Sunak oozes smooth Davos man. And it's probably the case that his success isn't linked to how he performs in the debates, no matter how brilliantly, other than to guarantee himself a place in the final.
If they're heading for a defeat 2 years from now they'll bring him back.
That's my fear too.
The last time a major party leader had a second go at leadership after resigning (leaving aside acting leaders including Jo Grimond) was Bonar Law in 1922. And he had resigned for health reasons.
Austen Chamberlain could have had the leadership again in 1923 had he not been so stubborn but he refused a cabinet post.
Before that we're talking Gladstone.
Johnson is now toxic. Once he's finally gone, unlike Farage, he won't be back.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
Perhaps because climate change is happening faster than activists thought 20 years ago?
It's not just the extremism. It's the sheer batshit fruit loopery of it all. These people seem to have barely any passing contact with reality. They really should be kept away from all sharp objects.
Another favourite: "Bodies are not inherently male or female."
We live in an Age of Stupid.
And, sadly, it does not appear to cost those who come out with such harmful and extremist nonsense.
It does give a flavour of what it must have been like to live during times when lepers were accused of poisoning the water supply or the Great Cat Massacre.
What's this Great Cat Massacre, and how do I organise one?
To provide some balance to my view that Truss would be a disaster:
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Truss is the answer for running Britain well & making it a better country for its citizens & a better contributor internationally. That is the point of politics & I have faith in the voters that they will reward delivering on that.
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
He's the highest floor candidate.
It is widely reported that Team Big Dog wants Anyone But Sunak to win, as revenge for knocking over the first (well, second) domino, but I wonder if Boris's real motivation is that ABS is more likely to fail catastrophically leading to calls for SuperBoris to rescue the government in a year or so, whereas under Sunak the party is more likely to face managed decline than fall off a cliff. (Is that a mixed metaphor? I'm not sure.)
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
He seems to have no policy other than to believe in "no fairytales" and make the NHS "his priority".
In other words people will conclude he just offers more of the same but with smooth hand gestures and no personal scandals.
Related to boosters, some analysis in the Economist suggests ChadOx has saved more lives than any other Covid vaccine, with Pfizer a close second. Not bad for a quasi-ineffective shot (according to some).
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
Indeed, as I said earlier some secondary records will be broken. And one might be the steepest, quickest change in max temps
The fastest change in temperatures is usually at the end of a very cold spell as a warm front comes in.
eg Altnaharra went from -27C to +1C in a short time period.
An interesting question is at what time on Tuesday morning will somewhere break the pre-2003 record of 37.1C. Models suggest we could be up at that level somewhere by 11am on Monday and 10am on Tuesday.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
It's almost certain regional records will fall. The Yorkshire record is 36.0. North East 33.0. Manchester 33.7. The latter looks likely to be smashed out of the park. And then some.
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
ISTR What a scorcher headlines from my childhood whenever it hit 70°F. Which is 21 in new money.
The day was hot The beer was too Goodness, what a scorcher, phew!
Private Eye parodying newspaper headlines decades ago, unless it was someone else; the little grey cells are not what they used to be.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
It's almost certain regional records will fall. The Yorkshire record is 36.0. North East 33.0. Manchester 33.7. The latter looks likely to be smashed out of the park. And then some.
Yes, it's a Canadian Heat Dome situation for the North. Records will be broken by 3-5C
I think they're all bad choices, but some are less bad than others. Frankly, I would think Mordaunt would probably be the least bad of them. Which doesn't mean I think she'd be good.
However, she'd probably also be the one most likely to shore up support in the Blue Wall, where I would prefer Tory support to collapse, so it's a country-versus-party thing with me. We'll see what happens.
I suspect it's probably true that the light's on but no-one's home.
However, as long as she picks a good team, works hard, and masters pleasant window dressing on top, then that'll have to do.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
It's almost certain regional records will fall. The Yorkshire record is 36.0. North East 33.0. Manchester 33.7. The latter looks likely to be smashed out of the park. And then some.
Met Office saying London is 35 Monday, 37 Tuesday.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
That's one run - the GFS 06Z Operational. What's also interesting is the fall in some locations on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from 36C to 18C in just six hours.
Indeed, as I said earlier some secondary records will be broken. And one might be the steepest, quickest change in max temps
The fastest change in temperatures is usually at the end of a very cold spell as a warm front comes in.
eg Altnaharra went from -27C to +1C in a short time period.
An interesting question is at what time on Tuesday morning will somewhere break the pre-2003 record of 37.1C. Models suggest we could be up at that level somewhere by 11am on Monday and 10am on Tuesday.
Yes, that's the extraordinary thing. It looks ridiculously hot even before the sun gets to work, particularly on Tuesday.
As Leon says, these temperatures are truly shocking and not something I ever thought I'd see, even on a model.
To provide some balance to my view that Truss would be a disaster:
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 2h Truss is the answer for running Britain well & making it a better country for its citizens & a better contributor internationally. That is the point of politics & I have faith in the voters that they will reward delivering on that.
Dr Seth Thévoz🇺🇦 @SAThevoz Liz Truss opened on her childhood, saying she was inspired to go into politics by "lots of children being let down by low educational standards".
Truss (b.1975) was entirely educated under Conservative governments, from primary school to university (1979-96).🤨
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
It's almost certain regional records will fall. The Yorkshire record is 36.0. North East 33.0. Manchester 33.7. The latter looks likely to be smashed out of the park. And then some.
Met Office saying London is 35 Monday, 37 Tuesday.
If they're heading for a defeat 2 years from now they'll bring him back.
That's my fear too.
The last time a major party leader had a second go at leadership after resigning (leaving aside acting leaders including Jo Grimond) was Bonar Law in 1922. And he had resigned for health reasons.
Austen Chamberlain could have had the leadership again in 1923 had he not been so stubborn but he refused a cabinet post.
Before that we're talking Gladstone.
Johnson is now toxic. Once he's finally gone, unlike Farage, he won't be back.
Americans thought the same about Trump after his 2020 defeat, yet he is back leading polls for the 2024 GOP nomination.
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
I wonder if that PB-er is still playing golf Monday and Tuesday
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
I wonder if that PB-er is still playing golf Monday and Tuesday
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
The Met Office forecasts don't have anywhere hitting 40C as far as I can see, whereas the BBC forecasts do.
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
Well indeed. Much amusement schools stay open in Spain. Yes. They have shutters. And windows which can be opened at night. And aren't huge south facing ones. And blinds. And different hours. And uniforms. And... Doesn't help the papers are of course illustrating all this with copious pictures of folk sunbathing on beaches.
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
I think Truss is a small-state Theresa May.
Is that a bad thing?
Theresa May's big state authoritarianism was the worst thing about her.
Related to boosters, some analysis in the Economist suggests ChadOx has saved more lives than any other Covid vaccine, with Pfizer a close second. Not bad for a quasi-ineffective shot (according to some).
This really need bigging up more. It is an amazing achievement.
There are questions that come out of this: what allowed Oxford to be in a position to make a vaccine so quickly; it won't all have been luck. What areas would be good for the government to invest in? How can we address the minor problems that occurred during the testing?
Does anyone have a link to the probability distribution of the met office temperature model to hand? Can't find anything like that online. Interested in what shape it is.
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
I think Truss is a small-state Theresa May.
Even there though, I would say that Theresa May at least tried to link what she was doing back to the voters. Perhaps not successfully, but her sense of doing a public service/duty was always rather clearly signposted.
In Truss that whole element just seems… absent? Which as I say is very curious for a politician at her level.
I'm a similar vein but maybe more of a chance, do you reckon we will have a Wallace bombshell in the Sunday editions when it comes to Sunak? Right before the second debate and before the vote on Monday.
If it's going to happen, it's going to happen then.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
The Met Office forecasts don't have anywhere hitting 40C as far as I can see, whereas the BBC forecasts do.
50% chance of that somewhere they are saying. That means nowhere specific is predicted to be 40°C of course.
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
I think Truss is a small-state Theresa May.
Even there though, I would say that Theresa May at least tried to link what she was doing back to the voters. Perhaps not successfully, but her sense of doing a public service/duty was always rather clearly signposted.
In Truss that whole element just seems… absent? Which as I say is very curious for a politician at her level.
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
I wonder if that PB-er is still playing golf Monday and Tuesday
It is very difficult to imagine in advance what it is going to be like. Never mind Death Valley or Kenya, I went to Rome in the 2010 heatwave and when the plane doors opened I thought Fuck we've been hijacked to the Middle East and they didn't tell us. Spent the first day doing the Vatican tour of rome bus trip, twice (with small children) because of the efficiency of the aircon. And that whole heatwave peaked at a mere 38. Serious killer.
If they're heading for a defeat 2 years from now they'll bring him back.
That's my fear too.
The last time a major party leader had a second go at leadership after resigning (leaving aside acting leaders including Jo Grimond) was Bonar Law in 1922. And he had resigned for health reasons.
Austen Chamberlain could have had the leadership again in 1923 had he not been so stubborn but he refused a cabinet post.
Before that we're talking Gladstone.
Johnson is now toxic. Once he's finally gone, unlike Farage, he won't be back.
Americans thought the same about Trump after his 2020 defeat, yet he is back leading polls for the 2024 GOP nomination.
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
The last and to date only time a defeated US President won a second term was Grover Cleveland in 1892.
I'm a similar vein but maybe more of a chance, do you reckon we will have a Wallace bombshell in the Sunday editions when it comes to Sunak? Right before the second debate and before the vote on Monday.
If it's going to happen, it's going to happen then.
It would be very helpful for my betting position if Sunak wet himself on stage tomorrow and then cried for his mummy.
Come on. Some of us have money on this.
Wallace does not strike me as that type. If he complains, which he probably has been doing already, it will be in private to Sunak and party grandees. Not a big public drama.
That's an interesting point - two of the three top contenders probably do have self-doubt issues that are impacting their performance. For PM, it's what you mention below. For LT, it looks like the classic "paralysis by analysis" and being so scared of blowing things that she actually does blow it.
Of the two, I think PM's issues are probably the easiest to get past. You can put yourself in a mind of "fuck em" and be yourself. I'm less sure on LT's issues and I can see a situation where she has a semi-meltdown in the debates if the stress gets to her.
A good point re Truss - I think you’re absolutely right that “paralysis by analysis” comes into it.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
I think Truss is a small-state Theresa May.
Even there though, I would say that Theresa May at least tried to link what she was doing back to the voters. Perhaps not successfully, but her sense of doing a public service/duty was always rather clearly signposted.
In Truss that whole element just seems… absent? Which as I say is very curious for a politician at her level.
It's almost as if it's all theoretical.
Yes - a very good way of putting it. More suited to a Whitehall policy wonk than a senior cabinet minister.
London on Monday seems to be the hot zone. 40C on BBC.
Still up for grabs. Quite a few of the models topping out at 37 or 38. Still damn hot, but may not breach the record. In favour of record breaking is it only needs ones weather station to do it. Interesting and worrying times.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll get through the next few days without the Armageddon some are forecasting. But the really concerning aspect of this is that it seems we’re now going to have to get used to temperatures in the high 30s or even more on a pretty much annual basis.
The evidence of the recent red storm warning is probably that they feel they need to over-egg things in an attempt to get people to behave sensibly. A friend who is an A&E doctor treated a number of people who were blown over, including one guy blown off a ladder while attempting to fix the garage roof while the storm was still going on, and a colleague had a roof blown onto the car while taking the kids swimming. What part of "don't go out" is difficult to understand I don't know. Hospitals will be treating people who think that the same behaviour is sensible at 40 degrees as at 25.
One problem is the number of people who seem to think because they’ve been to Dubai or Turkey that 40c is nothing. If you have air con that sucks in pets and small children then yes, no problem.
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
I wonder if that PB-er is still playing golf Monday and Tuesday
It is very difficult to imagine in advance what it is going to be like. Never mind Death Valley or Kenya, I went to Rome in the 2010 heatwave and when the plane doors opened I thought Fuck we've been hijacked to the Middle East and they didn't tell us. Spent the first day doing the Vatican tour of rome bus trip, twice (with small children) because of the efficiency of the aircon. And that whole heatwave peaked at a mere 38. Serious killer.
I'm a similar vein but maybe more of a chance, do you reckon we will have a Wallace bombshell in the Sunday editions when it comes to Sunak? Right before the second debate and before the vote on Monday.
If it's going to happen, it's going to happen then.
It would be very helpful for my betting position if Sunak wet himself on stage tomorrow and then cried for his mummy.
Come on. Some of us have money on this.
Wallace does not strike me as that type. If he complains, which he probably has been doing already, it will be in private to Sunak and party grandees. Not a big public drama.
Expecting more anti PM venom, and possibly KB. She is already on record as saying some really quite tiresome anti gay, anti trans stuff.
Americans thought the same about Trump after his 2020 defeat, yet he is back leading polls for the 2024 GOP nomination.
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
Johnson has three options:
1) He can rapidly leave politics and do other things (Cameron, Thatcher) 2) He can sit as an embittered soul on the backbenches sniping occasionally at the leadership (Heath, May) 3) He can try to become a respected "elder statesman" supportive of the leadership and offering such counsel as is asked (Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard)
None of those in brackets was or has ever been seriously entertained as a second round at being leader.
Can we count HH Asquith as a double leader albeit of thr Liberal Party (yes, I know, major party, blah, blah, blah)?
Had Sinclair regained Caithness & Sutherland in 1950 he'd have probably re-taken the Liberal leadership from Clement Davies. Churchill and Sinclair were great friends and I believe Churchill might have offered Sinclair a Cabinet place for merging the remnants of the Liberal Party into the Conservatives.
OTOH, Sinclair suffered a stroke in 1952 and had he been unable to carry on, Grimond would have got to the leadership earlier and perhaps started an earlier Liberal revival.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
Indeed. Not many Climate Change deniers about these days.
Who was the guy on here a few years back who was confidently predicting a mini-ice age in a year or two? (Not a trick question - I know it wasn't you!)
I flat guarantee that someone, somewhere, will (completely wrongly) insist: "it was hotter in 1976"
Have to say Mrs Stodge is delighted with the change in policy to provide Covid boosters in the autumn to all over 50. This will be a genuinely popular move.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
Indeed. Not many Climate Change deniers about these days.
Who was the guy on here a few years back who was confidently predicting a mini-ice age in a year or two? (Not a trick question - I know it wasn't you!)
I flat guarantee that someone, somewhere, will (completely wrongly) insist: "it was hotter in 1976"
"Heathrow had 16 consecutive days over 30 °C (86 °F) from 23 June to 8 July[5] and for 15 consecutive days from 23 June to 7 July temperatures reached 32.2 °C (90 °F) somewhere in England"
Americans thought the same about Trump after his 2020 defeat, yet he is back leading polls for the 2024 GOP nomination.
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
Johnson has three options:
1) He can rapidly leave politics and do other things (Cameron, Thatcher) 2) He can sit as an embittered soul on the backbenches sniping occasionally at the leadership (Heath, May) 3) He can try to become a respected "elder statesman" supportive of the leadership and offering such counsel as is asked (Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard)
None of those in brackets was or has ever been seriously entertained as a second round at being leader.
Can we count HH Asquith as a double leader albeit of thr Liberal Party (yes, I know, major party, blah, blah, blah)?
Had Sinclair regained Caithness & Sutherland in 1950 he'd have probably re-taken the Liberal leadership from Clement Davies. Churchill and Sinclair were great friends and I believe Churchill might have offered Sinclair a Cabinet place for merging the remnants of the Liberal Party into the Conservatives.
OTOH, Sinclair suffered a stroke in 1952 and had he been unable to carry on, Grimond would have got to the leadership earlier and perhaps started an earlier Liberal revival.
However we have also never had a party leader who won a landslide general election victory, which was not the case for Heath and May or Hague, IDS and Howard and was removed by his party after less than a term in office, which also was not the case for Cameron and Thatcher both who served over 10 years as party leader and over 5 years as PM
Yes, the downgrades have begun, as is often the case as the event nears. It’s now forecast to be a mild 39c in London. Wrap up warm!
Good news is the nighttime forecast has dropped to 19. Might actually be possible to get some sleep.
I'm not sure where these 'downgrades' are. MO have 42C here in the Flatlands in their high resolution model:
There is a hint that high cloud associated with the front might limit Tuesday's max, but it is effin hot all the way.
I think it is almost certain somewhere will see 40C.
Edit: Also, don't see anything lower than 26C in London on Monday night
It's certainly not being downgraded up here at all! A couple of days ago it was 23° predicted. Now 27 on Met Office, 31 on that map.
Yes 32C forecast for Edinburgh on Tuesday. The current record is 31.6C
Just creeping up to 17C at the moment, so I've got the windows open to make a start on cooling the place down in advance (and my wife is gamely playing along by wearing a jumper).
West Midlands Metro are opening their extension from Library to Edgbaston tomorrow, while TfL are opening the Overground extension to Barking Riverside on Monday.
They had to choose the bloody hottest weekend ever, didn't they?
If they're heading for a defeat 2 years from now they'll bring him back.
That's my fear too.
The last time a major party leader had a second go at leadership after resigning (leaving aside acting leaders including Jo Grimond) was Bonar Law in 1922. And he had resigned for health reasons.
Austen Chamberlain could have had the leadership again in 1923 had he not been so stubborn but he refused a cabinet post.
Before that we're talking Gladstone.
Johnson is now toxic. Once he's finally gone, unlike Farage, he won't be back.
Americans thought the same about Trump after his 2020 defeat, yet he is back leading polls for the 2024 GOP nomination.
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
The last and to date only time a defeated US President won a second term was Grover Cleveland in 1892.
And on current polls, at least half of which Trump leads against Biden, he may well be the second US President to be defeated after 1 term and come back to win a second term
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
He's the highest floor candidate.
It is widely reported that Team Big Dog wants Anyone But Sunak to win, as revenge for knocking over the first (well, second) domino, but I wonder if Boris's real motivation is that ABS is more likely to fail catastrophically leading to calls for SuperBoris to rescue the government in a year or so, whereas under Sunak the party is more likely to face managed decline than fall off a cliff. (Is that a mixed metaphor? I'm not sure.)
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
The Met Office forecasts don't have anywhere hitting 40C as far as I can see, whereas the BBC forecasts do.
Bizarre by the met office given their own high res model, and the models they use most for medium term prediction, all show 40C+.
It is unbelievably depressing to watch a Conservative government frame the choice as higher taxes versus higher borrowing. The answer is LOWER SPENDING.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Here's my guess: the UK record will be broken but nowhere will reach 40°C.
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
I wonder if there is some normalcy bias at work here, however. Breaking a record of "38.7C" doesn't sound outrageous. 38.8C - meh (tho it is still brutally and remarkably hot of course)
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
Indeed. Not many Climate Change deniers about these days.
Who was the guy on here a few years back who was confidently predicting a mini-ice age in a year or two? (Not a trick question - I know it wasn't you!)
I flat guarantee that someone, somewhere, will (completely wrongly) insist: "it was hotter in 1976"
"Heathrow had 16 consecutive days over 30 °C (86 °F) from 23 June to 8 July[5] and for 15 consecutive days from 23 June to 7 July temperatures reached 32.2 °C (90 °F) somewhere in England"
This is just 2 days
Yes. There is a qualitative difference between length of heat and intensity of heat. This particular event will probably not even qualify as a heat wave due to the shortness (I understand the high temperatures have to last for 3 or more days to be a heatwave).
There may be a discussion to be had as to which is better/worse - two weeks of 30+ degrees, or two days of around 40 degrees
Comments
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamofStoke/status/1547834890913165314
Our MP wants to continue "the levelling of Stoke on Trent"? Oh my. He also spelt his own name wrong.
After this morning's slight downgrade, now a minor upgrade
41C for London and Kent on Tuesday: perhaps
Yes, it's the Stodge Saturday Patent or as it's also known, the Bookmakers' Winter Holiday Fund.
There's a lot to be said for evening racing if you enjoy bad music, copious numbers of drunks, vomit and badly overcooked or undercooked burgers.
Simply back these three and you can have the experience without the sights, sounds or smells:
7.15 Doncaster: DANCE FEVER
7.45 Doncaster: ADJOURN
8.00 Haydock: BOUDICA BAY
Try a 1-point win patent on those if life really has lost all meaning or you are looking forward to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1548258045901152263
"penny is a true idiot & wd be a fiasco.
truss is less stupid & more crackers, also guaranteed fiasco"
- He owns the Tories' economic record and so has nowhere to hide on cost of living crisis other than tweaking around the edges (as he's already been doing)
- His policy record doesn't suggest any great political skill other than spending money, taxing workers and protecting retirees. Rising NI on workers in order to cut income tax on everyone including pensioners a few years later; large deficit even now after the initial GDP recovery; real term pay cuts for public sector workers or those on benefits while protecting pensioners against inflation.
- He got fined by the police and there remajn questions over families' tax status history that looks bad for someone as PM. A billionaire making difficult decisions during a cost of living crisis makes him an easy target.
- The polish may change to the perception of being fake - such as the photo of him filling up an aide's car.
There's no super compelling alternative but Sunak isn't in a particularly strong position to improve Tory fortunes.
But the Tories are now like old Labour, so...
I think they're all bad choices, but some are less bad than others. Frankly, I would think Mordaunt would probably be the least bad of them. Which doesn't mean I think she'd be good.
However, she'd probably also be the one most likely to shore up support in the Blue Wall, where I would prefer Tory support to collapse, so it's a country-versus-party thing with me. We'll see what happens.
Seems odd if she's singling them out, but not quite as bizarre as the thought of steam engines in hospitals.
I pretty much exclusively fly easyjet. Mind you, I am so fucking loaded I sometimes pay for speedy boarding. Just because I can.
Weathergeek PB-ers can take a punt on the highest temp in the UK before Wednesday
https://smarkets.com/event/42815121/politics/current-affairs/environment/2022/07/19/17-00/maximum-uk-temperature-before-wednesday
The favourite is 40-41.9C, so punters believe 40C will be broken
I reckon we will see a max of 39.8C, somewhere around London or Cambs
So the record will be broken, but not 40C
I could be wrong on both counts of course.
@SAThevoz
Liz Truss opened on her childhood, saying she was inspired to go into politics by "lots of children being let down by low educational standards".
Truss (b.1975) was entirely educated under Conservative governments, from primary school to university (1979-96).🤨
https://twitter.com/SAThevoz/status/1548053364612558856
2.08 Penny Mordaunt 48%
3.1 Rishi Sunak 32%
6.8 Liz Truss 15%
29 Kemi Badenoch
55 Tom Tugendhat
310 Dominic Raab
Betfair to make the final two
1.11 Rishi Sunak 90%
1.34 Penny Mordaunt 75%
3.2 Liz Truss 31%
16 Kemi Badenoch 6%
34 Tom Tugendhat
Not my experience by a long chalk.
Breaking 40C tramples on all our expectations of weather (it is not a temperature I really expected to see in the UK in my lifetime). So there is mental resistance, perhaps? Dunno. Certainly, a lot of reliable forecasters now say it is highly possible. The Met gives it a 50% chance
But, still, 40 bloody Celsius? That's an Indian temperature. That's a heatwave in New Delhi. And yet it is in London
For comparison, about 20 years ago when climate changers were trying to scare us with possible future temperatures, they would say "we could seen 40C in London by 2050" (there are actual mock-ups of a 2050 forecast showing 40C). But here we are: in 2022
eg Altnaharra went from -27C to +1C in a short time period.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
2h
Truss is the answer for running Britain well & making it a better country for its citizens & a better contributor internationally. That is the point of politics & I have faith in the voters that they will reward delivering on that.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1548230813606563842
Who was the guy on here a few years back who was confidently predicting a mini-ice age in a year or two? (Not a trick question - I know it wasn't you!)
I'd certainly be a supporter of that.
Record will go to Brogdale in Kent, just like 2003.
Look out for all time record attempts in France (less likely but not impossible), Netherlands (probable), Belgium (probable), Denmark (outside chance on Wed). Portugal has already fallen.
Which is 21 in new money.
1. there is always shit he has done which has yet to come out.
2. he is also continuing and will continue to do other shit.
I am hoping he will be too thoroughly disgraced for a comeback to be on the cards.
Sunak oozes smooth Davos man. And it's probably the case that his success isn't linked to how he performs in the debates, no matter how brilliantly, other than to guarantee himself a place in the final.
Austen Chamberlain could have had the leadership again in 1923 had he not been so stubborn but he refused a cabinet post.
Before that we're talking Gladstone.
Johnson is now toxic. Once he's finally gone, unlike Farage, he won't be back.
In other words people will conclude he just offers more of the same but with smooth hand gestures and no personal scandals.
The Yorkshire record is 36.0. North East 33.0.
Manchester 33.7.
The latter looks likely to be smashed out of the park. And then some.
Come on. Some of us have money on this.
I think Truss is actually a fascinating case study when it comes to her presentation style or lack thereof.
She has clearly had some kind of training since the cheese incident - no awkward grinning to camera and much lower voice. By lowering her voice though she seems to have removed the modulation and now comes across as very monotone - - she has actually excised some of the genuine enthusiasm she delivered in her public performances/appearances and actually ended up more wooden. Im not sure if she’s had professional advice (I assume so) but they either deserve a bad review or they have more work to do with her, because teaching someone to speak in a lower register doesn’t mean turning them into a droning bore.
There is another curious thing about Truss that I have noticed. If you look at any high level politician in a debate or interview or public setting, what is the key thing that they try to do? They try to communicate with the person at home, the voter, the person they owe their job to. As a politician your number one job is to make that connection and convince people you want to help them. Thatcher, Truss’ idol, was a master at this. She had a reputation of being unfeeling and cold but she was always communicating to and speaking to her voters in every appearance she made - what she wanted to do and how she wanted to help them.
Truss just doesn’t seem to try to build any connection with the public which is a very curious position for a public figure to be in. It’s all low tax, mercantile competitive global Britain and whilst its great she has a vision she doesn’t seem to be able to say to people HOW that helps them. Or why she wants to help them. She speaks as an administrator and a back room operator, not as a front line saleswoman. Thing is, you can be as good an administrator as you want but if you can’t then package and sell your vision to the country you are in the wrong job as a politician.
The beer was too
Goodness, what a scorcher, phew!
Private Eye parodying newspaper headlines decades ago, unless it was someone else; the little grey cells are not what they used to be.
However, as long as she picks a good team, works hard, and masters pleasant window dressing on top, then that'll have to do.
It's still better than Boris.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2022-07-16
As Leon says, these temperatures are truly shocking and not something I ever thought I'd see, even on a model.
Run by me again please how Labour ran LEAs were entirely Conservative?
If so that beats the record by more than a degree.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2022-07-16
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
If Johnson stays in the Commons who knows what will happen
The idiots who walk up mountains as if it is another, literal, walk in the park come to mind….
I’ve actually been through that kind of weather in a country where air con isnt wide spread. Monday is going to be a fuck up for some people…
Much amusement schools stay open in Spain.
Yes. They have shutters. And windows which can be opened at night. And aren't huge south facing ones. And blinds.
And different hours. And uniforms. And...
Doesn't help the papers are of course illustrating all this with copious pictures of folk sunbathing on beaches.
Theresa May's big state authoritarianism was the worst thing about her.
There are questions that come out of this: what allowed Oxford to be in a position to make a vaccine so quickly; it won't all have been luck. What areas would be good for the government to invest in? How can we address the minor problems that occurred during the testing?
In Truss that whole element just seems… absent? Which as I say is very curious for a politician at her level.
If it's going to happen, it's going to happen then.
That means nowhere specific is predicted to be 40°C of course.
I've come to the reluctant conclusion that I can't leave London for Inverness on Tuesday (LNER already have a travel advisory out).
And the week after, there's a rail strike (27th).
Any of Rishi, Liz or Penny would do an OK job I think. I was more impressed by Liz.
Tom and Kemi need more experience though both came across as personable.
Automatic doors opened. Sauna.
1) He can rapidly leave politics and do other things (Cameron, Thatcher)
2) He can sit as an embittered soul on the backbenches sniping occasionally at the leadership (Heath, May)
3) He can try to become a respected "elder statesman" supportive of the leadership and offering such counsel as is asked (Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard)
None of those in brackets was or has ever been seriously entertained as a second round at being leader.
Can we count HH Asquith as a double leader albeit of thr Liberal Party (yes, I know, major party, blah, blah, blah)?
Had Sinclair regained Caithness & Sutherland in 1950 he'd have probably re-taken the Liberal leadership from Clement Davies. Churchill and Sinclair were great friends and I believe Churchill might have offered Sinclair a Cabinet place for merging the remnants of the Liberal Party into the Conservatives.
OTOH, Sinclair suffered a stroke in 1952 and had he been unable to carry on, Grimond would have got to the leadership earlier and perhaps started an earlier Liberal revival.
Have to say Mrs Stodge is delighted with the change in policy to provide Covid boosters in the autumn to all over 50. This will be a genuinely popular move.
This is just 2 days
London:
Monday 35C
Tuesday 37C
Heathrow:
Monday 37C
Tuesday 39C
Nottingham:
Monday 35C
Tuesday 38C
Just creeping up to 17C at the moment, so I've got the windows open to make a start on cooling the place down in advance (and my wife is gamely playing along by wearing a jumper).
They had to choose the bloody hottest weekend ever, didn't they?
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1548232387309367297?s=20&t=824Qsme0n-pZWDDZMZdj5w
This particular event will probably not even qualify as a heat wave due to the shortness (I understand the high temperatures have to last for 3 or more days to be a heatwave).
There may be a discussion to be had as to which is better/worse - two weeks of 30+ degrees, or two days of around 40 degrees