How the first debate moved the betting – politicalbetting.com
How the first debate moved the betting – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen the main betting beneficiary was Sunak who moved into second place while Truss went down.
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The other notable feature was that all six were sons and daughters of professionals with a degree of public service in their chosen profession. There was a time when a line up like that could only have been for leader of the Labour Party. Quite depressing that with those backgrounds all six seemed so devoutly Thatcherite.
'Woke presenter' Krishnan Guru-Murthy criticised by Conservatives who said 'candidates can barely get a word in'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/15/channel-4-accused-bias-tory-mps-leadership-debate/ (£££)
2.14 Penny Mordaunt 47%
3 Rishi Sunak 33%
6.4 Liz Truss 16%
34 Kemi Badenoch
60 Tom Tugendhat
270 Dominic Raab
Betfair to make the final two:-
1.13 Rishi Sunak 88%
1.38 Penny Mordaunt 72%
2.74 Liz Truss 36%
17 Kemi Badenoch 6%
32 Tom Tugendhat
The junior trade minister and former defence secretary has emerged this week as a frontrunner to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, prompting frantic attempts from opponents, especially supporters of Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, to stall her momentum.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mordaunt-i-wont-join-this-battle-of-black-ops-3s20dstcw (£££)
Didn't watch the debate but Sunak's down to 3 having been 4.5-5 for a while, so that's a big shift, while Truss is out to 6 having been roughly equal with Sunak.
Badenoch out to 34 but she's bobbled between 20 and 38 for a little while, so perhaps significant, perhaps not.
Why not? Maybe yesterday was a fair and accurate display of their abilities? Not everyone thrives in that kind of format, even though they may have other skills.
It is just as likely that they are even poorer next time. Maybe what you just witnessed was Peak Truss and/or Peak Mordaunt?
It gives a far better summary than the media reports, which are pretty bland.
Quite frankly, this Tory contest might be better restarted without a new cast list. They are all a bit underwhelming. If the question is which of Mordaunt and Truss is placed to take on Sunak, something has gone a little wrong.
GOP lawmaker: Womb has ‘no specific purpose’ to a woman’s ‘life or well-being’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/abortion-women-womb-gop-montana-tschida/
On the other hand, there is hope in the world when one sees the different reactions of parents and undergraduates to this speech:
https://twitter.com/MrSplendiferous/status/1547863048798449664?t=ovbHFK5-NxXEcN8KS_lbtQ&s=19
https://youtu.be/zInyrDfR4us
My daughter was a treasure, straight As all through school, first class English degree from a top University, talented artist and then suddenly for no reason at all went completely off the rails and became a lawyer.
My son worked out alright though.
Essentially what is happening is that we’re now projecting the ‘blank canvas’ on to him instead of Mordaunt due to her shall we say underwhelming performance last night.
Maybe he would have been better, maybe he would have underwhelmed as she is doing.
“Downing Street was said to have been left “furious” by what was seen as an attempt to bounce Mr Johnson into announcing a major defence spending increase while at the Nato summit this week. ”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/28/boris-johnson-faces-cabinet-battle-defence-spending/
Wallace is dull as ditchwater, and your problem remains that SKS would have been a clear 6th last night
Ps Please keep underestimating Starmer. Clearly not your cup of tea.
PM Sunak, followed by PM Starmer, is just a continuation of of the dire Blair/Brown/Cameron/May/Oaf quarter century.
I think people overestimate how much the ERG care about one TV debate.
It might not work this time, but an incumbent party that is unpopular can only survive in power if the actions which have made it unpopular can be demonstrated to have yielded significant positive outcomes before the next election, or through complete reinvention. And the Tories aren't going to get very far by relying upon the former.
Starmer is not going to get Lab Maj, and is unlikely to even get Most Seats. On the other hand, he’ll probably be a PM. But without an agenda. Just being Not-a-Tory is not a programme for government.
The swing votes among the MPs are more about the likelihood of losing their seats than any ideological purity.
Though God knows what happens if she makes it to the membership vote.
With respect to tea, that’s an excellent idea.
Mordaunt mentioned Brexit a couple of times, and not much else - she was a little bit in the background. Kemi spoke about loyalty/integrity, care workers, her teeth and being an engineer - she was charismatic. I can't remember what Truss said - I was just grimacing the whole time she was talking, and even when not talking.
My advice to candidates next time: if you want to cut through to Joe Public: talk credibly about the cost of living crisis with confident and clear delivery.
Badenoch vs Sunak to the members could go either way.
That's Truss.
They will go through whatever logical contortions they need to in order to convince themselves people will change their minds about her once she's in office.
That might not apply if there were somebody senior available who has clean hands on the economic mess we're in. But there isn't. Badenoch and Tugendhat have never been in Cabinet, and Mordaunt only served there briefly. Putting any of the three of them in charge would be taking a giant and frankly unjustified risk. Like Johnson,or Corbyn - and look how they turned out.
Sunak isn't great, but he probably won't be catastrophic either. We have a fair idea as a country of what we would be getting. Certainty at the moment is pretty desirable and would in itself help with the economic situation by stabilising the pound.
Equally, the fact I've never thought of him as anything other than the obvious choice in this field, for good or ill, may be colouring my views.
Now, I think Truss is genuinely a poor candidate for PM but don't expect it to shift the dial too much in MP voting on Monday.
The problem for Truss is that she's as wooden as Sherwood Forest. In an earlier much more limited media age this would matter little. Today it is a critical flaw that she cannot escape
Another debate tomorrow. Yikes Liz Truss .... Timber !!!!!!!!!
And that includes Mordaunt.
I've topped up because the markets have overreacted, and she's now value, not because I rate her - look at my posts.
Far too many people on here make their betting judgements based on their own impressions of the candidate.
They tend to lose money.
Even Cameron's infamous first debate (which I assume you mean in the 2010 election, not his debate with David Davis in 2005) where all was not nearly as bad as that.
If they were she wouldn't have got 64 MPs so far, 3rd place in the table, and about to hoover up Braverman's.
I don't quite get the hate for Sunak by the Tory right. He knows how bad the finances are, and that this isn't the time for tax cuts.
We're probably heading for Rishi v. Mordaunt right now, and Mordaunt will win that because - as smooth as he is - all Rishi offers is steady as she goes.
Interesting and worrying times.
I will be surprised if she makes much further progress. She may pick up a few of Braverman's backers, but she will almost certainly lose a few to Badenoch after last night. She must have had a good half of the ERG already to get as far as she has and as I have noted they are much less influential than they like to pretend. Even if she got the lot of them (which is impossible given there is at least one other member of it still in the race) she's struggling to get past 80. That may not even get her to the final round of MPs.
But then, I'm often wrong. And they voted for a delusional, disorganised liar with a weird speaking manner and no clue whatsoever on anything last time.
Remember, there are two times when Tories believe you should cut taxes - when you can't afford it, and when you can.
Actually his record on NI does put me off him somewhat, because a genuinely fair and much more economically sensible response would have been to raise income tax.
But still better than the slash and burn of the others. I genuinely don't think they grasp the poor state of public finances or the powder keg of public service strain. And they clearly weren't listening when they were told last night.
We will see. Whatever, it’ll still be bloody hot. All over by Tuesday night.
Their shared poor performance raises the chance that, despite the members' apparent reluctance, Sunak emerges victor at the end.
This lot are flicking matches at them, apart from Sunak
Not that I see that from anyone at all.
It's one reason why I'm getting out.
And his acknowledgement that the stuff voters want needs to be paid for is a start. Badenochh's claim that there are meaningful savings to be made by cutting policing of hate speech and whatnot is just another version of the Magic Money Tree; the Enchanted Savings Shrub or something.
The Government stands accused, with considerable justification, of pampering the elderly at the expense of the young, but that only really applies so long as people remain reasonably well and active. Care home inmates (and I use that word deliberately) can be, and often are, treated worse than animals. If and when I get to the point that infirmity could catch up with me, I think I'd rather be shot than end up in one of those places.
Didn't bother with the debate, but I gather Penny denies eating the jam tarts despite the jam plastered on her cheek. Only a minor point, but probably better to come clean despite the likely hysterical reaction from some of the trans brigade.
They are both very excited by the prospect of Penny Mordaunt, PM.
Would she have had better quality of life without covid happening? Unquestionably so. She was however well looked after by caring staff and continued to enjoy life, at least until 2 months before her death last September. Very few want to go into a care home, but it is not life without enjoyment.
She was ok last night.
'I started researching the timeline: what had the people in power said just at the moment I got ill? On 3 February 2020, Boris Johnson gave a speech in Greenwich, south London, where he said: “We are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation that go beyond what is medically rational.” Instead, he suggested, “humanity needs some government somewhere” to be the “supercharged champion of the right of the populations of the Earth to buy and sell freely among each other”.
This takes a bit of translating: the “autarkic rhetoric” was in fact people calling for a public health response to a new virus. “[S]ome government somewhere” was him appointing himself in that role as the “supercharged champion” of the free market – the free market that would defeat the virus rather than a public health policy.
This, then, was Johnson’s first reflex in the face of the pandemic. Every time I hear the phrase “he got the big calls right”, this speech echoes in my head.
By 3 March, he was boasting: “I was at a hospital the other night where I think a few there were actually coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody, you’ll be pleased to know, and I continue to shake hands.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/16/covid-deaths-virus-200000-britain-trauma-loss