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Should we be following Gove & backing Kemi Badenoch? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Eabhal said:

    It's mad that using a car to injure/kill someone (accidentally) is regarded by the law as much more reasonable than using some other tool.

    "A collision between a cyclist and a car" = vulnerable road user smashed by useless driver in huge metal box.
    It's because it could be you. Or your spouse. Or your child.

    A car is an essential tool of modern life. Killing someone "accidentally" (there's a clue in there) is easier to explain than "accidentally" killing them with a rivet gun....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    kle4 said:

    Interesting - Tory MPs are less authoritarian than Members but more right wing on the economy. I'd suspect that's because most people do not understand economics, and while MPs also do not understand it, they are more likely to have committed to some ideological position on it.

    This is only half right. The Tory grassroots are to the right of the parliamentary party on some things, but to the left on others (esp the economy).
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1545315176026710016


    That’s interesting. Does suggest they are on to something around social values, but have a lot of work to do otherwise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,942
    Carnyx said:

    Isn't that involving HMG rather than the SG? Or have I missed something?
    Yes it is, its a national problem but it is also why our rail service is worse than usual and the deal with Scotrail drivers doesn't fix it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I disagree with you both - the further something falls behind the further it has to climb back. The Tories can lose the next election in the coming months.

    What do you think is plunging Tories into the 20s and elevating Labour in the polls?
    A big swing from Tory to "don't know" pending the result of the leadership election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Scott_xP said:

    It more than pays for itself, but then you know that...
    Bollocks does it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Westminster Voting Intention (10 July):

    Labour 42% (-1)
    Conservative 31% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 7 July

    https://t.co/qcXXrTvWSA https://t.co/qR40Eev8TI

    Redfield in the house
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited July 2022

    @MoonRabbit please explain :lol:
    Err. What’s the question?

    I have observed that some of the more recent polling have a 60+ antipasti - below that is just how you rearrange the deckchairs today, in the case of this poll Libdem and Green only 16 deckchairs shared between them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,222

    That's what's so strange.

    Standing and losing for what you believe in makes sense.

    Folding your beliefs to win makes sense.

    Folding your beliefs and then losing, selling your soul for nothing... What's the point?
    He's just a bit of a Hunt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,919

    The pound is up nearly two cents against the Euro since Johnson's ministers started resigning in droves.
    The euro is falling further and this mornings business news was not a good listen for the EU
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,004
    Selebian said:

    But the 1922, being part of a party favouring FPTP, will give it to Sunak in that scenario. Surely? :innocent:
    It feels very much like STV! They could do it in one go using preference voting but that would eliminate the games playing and where's the fun in that?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,459

    Watch those join EU numbers crumble - when you tell them what the cost of rejoining would be.

    Never. Gonna. Happen.
    I could see us joining some kind of EU-very-lite - just free trade without political union, the euro or freedom of movement (as the EU misleadingly calls abolishing immigration controls). Call it the "European Free Trade Association" or something.

    But they'll never have the wit to offer that to us.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    I do think KM needs a few more endorsements today to avoid slipping to the wayside.

    She has rather stalled.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,093
    I see Mogg is about to enter the race.

    What a surprise.

    The circus will be complete when Nadine joins the race.

    Madness.



  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Fishing said:

    I could see us joining some kind of EU-very-lite - just free trade without political union, the euro or freedom of movement (as the EU misleadingly calls abolishing immigration controls). Call it the "European Free Trade Association" or something.

    But they'll never have the wit to offer that to us.
    On the other hand though, Macron at least seems to be wanting to create just that?

    You have sort of described an “outside Lane” EU membership, that wasn’t on offer when Cameron negotiated or the UK voted. A vote in UK within next 15 years to join the type of association you described would likely get 60% yes.

    But an awful lot of design and building till we go over that bridge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,307

    I see Mogg is about to enter the race.

    Oh gods, provide some build up before you come out with news like that, I almost vomited.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424

    Watch those join EU numbers crumble - when you tell them what the cost of rejoining would be.

    Never. Gonna. Happen.
    Are you saying those responding to the poll are too thick to know what they are doing?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,047
    Kemi is a buy in as much as Sunak is far too short: her current price of 32 or so Betfair looks moderately interesting, but no more.

    If you want a long shot, why not Ms Patel? She's got one of the great offices of State, she's got a great backstory, and that accent has to appeal to the Red Wall.

    I also think that surveys underestimate her appeal with Conservative members. At 90-odd, and with her likely to throw her hat in the ring in the next few days, I reckon she's a clear buy.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited July 2022
    Eabhal said:

    I've been out the lair on Lochindorb. Didn't realise he had two.
    The castle on Lochindorb is no doubt the major construction, but he did build the structure on Loch an Eilean too.

    It might just have been a hunting lodge I guess - it isn't very big.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,942
    rcs1000 said:

    Kemi is a buy in as much as Sunak is far too short: her current price of 32 or so Betfair looks moderately interesting, but no more.

    If you want a long shot, why not Ms Patel? She's got one of the great offices of State, she's got a great backstory, and that accent has to appeal to the Red Wall.

    I also think that surveys underestimate her appeal with Conservative members. At 90-odd, and with her likely to throw her hat in the ring in the next few days, I reckon she's a clear buy.

    There is the small matter of being an incompetent psychopathic lunatic, although in this field that is more of a how do you stand out problem.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,307
    rcs1000 said:

    Kemi is a buy in as much as Sunak is far too short: her current price of 32 or so Betfair looks moderately interesting, but no more.

    If you want a long shot, why not Ms Patel? She's got one of the great offices of State, she's got a great backstory, and that accent has to appeal to the Red Wall.

    I also think that surveys underestimate her appeal with Conservative members. At 90-odd, and with her likely to throw her hat in the ring in the next few days, I reckon she's a clear buy.

    I've generally been surprised at her low ratings on the ConHome ratings.

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/05/30/cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,977

    It's because it could be you. Or your spouse. Or your child.

    A car is an essential tool of modern life. Killing someone "accidentally" (there's a clue in there) is easier to explain than "accidentally" killing them with a rivet gun....

    It's because it could be you. Or your spouse. Or your child.

    A car is an essential tool of modern life. Killing someone "accidentally" (there's a clue in there) is easier to explain than "accidentally" killing them with a rivet gun....
    In fact, the government is changing the sentencing guidelines so that death by dangerous driving can bring a life sentence, in line with manslaughter. Good.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Meanwhile and getting in before Malmesbury:
    The hospitalisation figures with covid in England have just dropped for the past four days - and look very much like the trend has started to bend. If so, we have quite possibly already hit the maximum level of infection incidence and be starting on the way down, infections-wise.

    Still early to say (as hospitalisations lag infections, albeit with a bit of a mix-up due to incidental admissions), but we may well max out at or below 15,000 in hospital with covid. I'm hoping to see the number come in below 16,600 as a maximum, as it would point to this wave being a bit less than the last (which was in itself a little less than the first Omicron wave). Not by a big amount, but it does give hope to the idea that each one runs into a harsher and harsher immunity blanket, despite immune evasion.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Westminster Voting Intention (10 July):

    Labour 42% (-1)
    Conservative 31% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 7 July

    https://t.co/qcXXrTvWSA https://t.co/qR40Eev8TI

    Redfield in the house

    Dirty Labour and Green on slide as Reform surge in this one, despite the rudderless Tory infighting 🤭

    Next time HY or Big Owls quotes 2019 polls, May’s Tories below 28 and Corbyn leading, it is prior to Conservatives swallowing Blukip whole, and excreting so many moderates. During those low Tory scores in 2019, what were they with UKIP on top?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,848
    kle4 said:

    It's not a unique observation, and I know it's unfair, but I have to think Sunak's chances are hit by how wealthy he is. Personal wealth should not particularly matter, one can understand those who are struggling and best placed to help them without struggling yourselve, but he is so damn rich it is hard to look past.

    Many of the rest are very well off, but they didn't come from money (and unlike Sunak are not near billionaire levels).

    Being rich did not stop David Cameron or Mrs Thatcher. Perhaps this time the degree is different but Jacob Rees-Mogg and Zac Goldsmith somehow struggled on despite having north of £100 million under the mattress. I'm not convinced voters give it much thought and if they do, aren't Tories supposed to have money?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,919
    rcs1000 said:

    Kemi is a buy in as much as Sunak is far too short: her current price of 32 or so Betfair looks moderately interesting, but no more.

    If you want a long shot, why not Ms Patel? She's got one of the great offices of State, she's got a great backstory, and that accent has to appeal to the Red Wall.

    I also think that surveys underestimate her appeal with Conservative members. At 90-odd, and with her likely to throw her hat in the ring in the next few days, I reckon she's a clear buy.

    Sky saying she is in discussion with the hard Brexiteers and is expected to stand
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,092

    Somebody has said to me that Kemi is the new William Hague.

    In 1997 William Hague was everybody’s second choice and that helped him win as other people were eliminated.

    She’s everybody’s second choice.

    Henceforth to be referred to as the Yellow candidate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhmBfHFsq4I
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Fishing said:

    I could see us joining some kind of EU-very-lite - just free trade without political union, the euro or freedom of movement (as the EU misleadingly calls abolishing immigration controls). Call it the "European Free Trade Association" or something.

    But they'll never have the wit to offer that to us.
    You mean, basically what we had before Maastricht?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    I see Mogg is about to enter the race.

    What a surprise.

    The circus will be complete when Nadine joins the race.

    Madness.



    Really? Oh God….
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,459
    edited July 2022
    From several threads ago:
    IshmaelZ said:

    There might be thought to be some degree of social injustice underlying the black community's unduly large share of violent crime and (wild guess) small share of white collar fraud, unless you think they are genetically disposed to the one more than the other?
    Why US black communities of similar income and demographics are 2-4x as violent as Hispanic communities of similar disadvantage is a mystery. It clearly ISN'T genetic, because African societies are less violent on average than Latin American ones.

    The most convincing theory I've heard is that after slavery, blacks in the rural South were left to police themselves, as long as they didn't threaten white society. This led to vigilante justice in rural areas in the South. But when they moved to the big northern and western cities, the tight communities that had hitherto bound them and enabled self-policing disappeared. Violent crime was kept under some kind of control by vicious but partially effective policing until the advent of suspects' rights in the 60s and 70s undermined its legitimacy. So now you have the worst of both worlds - policing that isn't oppressive enough to be effective, but is too oppressive to allow the neighborhoods to self-police. And of course you have the drug trade, which rewards thuggishness.

    But, as I say, it's just a theory.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Are you saying those responding to the poll are too thick to know what they are doing?
    Thick, no, but probably unaware that rejoining would mean joining the euro and Schengen.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Westminster Voting Intention (10 July):

    Labour 42% (-1)
    Conservative 31% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (+3)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 7 July

    https://t.co/qcXXrTvWSA https://t.co/qR40Eev8TI

    Redfield in the house

    Identical antipasti 59.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,567
    Even Priti know that Brexit is once again making us the sick man of Europe...

    @thetimes - Patel warns the party that the UK risks returning to the 1970s if the Conservatives don’t “grip” the cost of living crisis.

    “Everyone will remember what the 1970s was like,” she warned a panel of ERG members in Parliament.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546517469614972929
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    Identical antipasti 59.
    The SNP are also progressive!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878
    kle4 said:

    Interesting - Tory MPs are less authoritarian than Members but more right wing on the economy. I'd suspect that's because most people do not understand economics, and while MPs also do not understand it, they are more likely to have committed to some ideological position on it.

    This is only half right. The Tory grassroots are to the right of the parliamentary party on some things, but to the left on others (esp the economy).
    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1545315176026710016


    Tories are more authoritarian than Labour?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    Dirty Labour and Green on slide as Reform surge in this one, despite the rudderless Tory infighting 🤭

    Next time HY or Big Owls quotes 2019 polls, May’s Tories below 28 and Corbyn leading, it is prior to Conservatives swallowing Blukip whole, and excreting so many moderates. During those low Tory scores in 2019, what were they with UKIP on top?
    General pattern since it all kicked off seems to be 3 to 4 off Tory due to uncertainty to vote. If that initial slide stabilises, new leader bounce could be the next big mover, unless wall to wall tory coverage initiates a recovery
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,028
    Scott_xP said:

    Even Priti know that Brexit is once again making us the sick man of Europe...

    @thetimes - Patel warns the party that the UK risks returning to the 1970s if the Conservatives don’t “grip” the cost of living crisis.

    “Everyone will remember what the 1970s was like,” she warned a panel of ERG members in Parliament.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546517469614972929

    Err, no they won't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,942
    Farooq said:

    So you agree the membership will find her palatable
    Some of them will, alas.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    Err. What’s the question?

    I have observed that some of the more recent polling have a 60+ antipasti - below that is just how you rearrange the deckchairs today, in the case of this poll Libdem and Green only 16 deckchairs shared between them.
    It was just a joke! (hence the LOL emoji)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,307

    Being rich did not stop David Cameron or Mrs Thatcher. Perhaps this time the degree is different but Jacob Rees-Mogg and Zac Goldsmith somehow struggled on despite having north of £100 million under the mattress. I'm not convinced voters give it much thought and if they do, aren't Tories supposed to have money?
    JRM and Goldsmith are not realistic PM contenders for reasons distinct from wealth. Cameron is a pauper by comparison. I know its a difference of degree, not kind, but during a period of a cost of living crisis? I think it will have a small impact.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,493

    Somebody has said to me that Kemi is the new William Hague.

    In 1997 William Hague was everybody’s second choice and that helped him win as other people were eliminated.

    She’s everybody’s second choice.

    Hague also had the endorsement of Thatcher.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    Applicant said:

    Indeed. And after that is party conference season, which always sends the polls haywire.

    There won't be any VI polling which is remotely meaningful until October. The copy/pasters can take a few months off...
    I disagree, I think the next general election in 2024 could be decided in the coming weeks, and all the polling over this time can point us to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,919
    Scott_xP said:

    Even Priti know that Brexit is once again making us the sick man of Europe...

    @thetimes - Patel warns the party that the UK risks returning to the 1970s if the Conservatives don’t “grip” the cost of living crisis.

    “Everyone will remember what the 1970s was like,” she warned a panel of ERG members in Parliament.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546517469614972929

    Looks as if Germany is now the sick man of Europe and its currency is performing worse v the dollar
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,142
    I can envisage Johnson voting for Badenoch.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,942

    Err, no they won't.
    She was born in 1972 so I am quite surprised she does to be honest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,423

    The SNP are also progressive!
    Nah, they are narrow little nationalists, so they can’t be progressives.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Eabhal said:

    In fact, the government is changing the sentencing guidelines so that death by dangerous driving can bring a life sentence, in line with manslaughter. Good.

    I have no problem with that change. Death by dangerous driving rarely covers an "accident" as you or I would interpret it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,423
    I am William Hague.

    Thatcher would not be cutting taxes now

    The pledges of Tory leadership hopefuls are fiscally unconservative and diverge from the party’s most successful leaders

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thatcher-would-not-be-cutting-taxes-now-v6hdzj99h
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,919
    Eabhal said:

    Have fun! I managed 2.2km this morning before a twinge in my abs. Not good.
    You're just boasting you have abs (plural).
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,226
    Off topic, but very important, this article on the COVID variant sweeping the Unied States: "America has decided the pandemic is over. The coronavirus has other ideas.

    The latest omicron offshoot, BA.5, has quickly become dominant in the United States, and thanks to its elusiveness when encountering the human immune system, is driving a wave of cases across the country.

    The size of that wave is unclear because most people are testing at home or not testing at all. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the past week has reported a little more than 100,000 new cases a day on average. But infectious-disease experts know that wildly underestimates the true number, which may be as many as a million, said Eric Topol, a professor at Scripps Research who closely tracks pandemic trends."
    source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/10/omicron-variant-ba5-covid-reinfection/
    (It's free, as is the rest of the Post's COVID coverage.)

    (Many months ago, one commenter here remarked that it was as if the virus was conciously changing tactics so as to keep plaguing us. The commenter (and I) know that isn't true, but sometimes it sure feels as if it were true.)
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    Applicant said:

    Thick, no, but probably unaware that rejoining would mean joining the euro and Schengen.
    Why do you think they would be unaware of that being a possibility whilst you obviously are?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Even Priti know that Brexit is once again making us the sick man of Europe...

    @thetimes - Patel warns the party that the UK risks returning to the 1970s if the Conservatives don’t “grip” the cost of living crisis.

    “Everyone will remember what the 1970s was like,” she warned a panel of ERG members in Parliament.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546517469614972929

    You really believe all our ills stem from leaving the EU don’t you? You really think we’ll be noticeably worse off outside. It really is like the reverse UKIP. For them everything bad was because of the EU, for you it’s Brexit.

    Fascinating.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    DavidL said:

    There is the small matter of being an incompetent psychopathic lunatic, although in this field that is more of a how do you stand out problem.
    Post of the day for me!!!!! :D:D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,942

    A minor test of efficiency - I've sent all the candidates a short questionnaire from 26 animal welfare charities. First out of the block (less than an hour) was Tugendhat's team, asking for a clarification.

    "Thank's for noticing me" as Eyore always used to say.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,760

    Nah, they are narrow little nationalists, so they can’t be progressives.

    They are regressives. Nationalism is a poisonous hate filled creed. It is very backward. There is nothing modern about it.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378
    Scott_xP said:

    Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll: #EURef2 vi: Join EU 45 (+4); Stay Out 36 (-2). Fwork 9-10.6 (ch since 16-17.5). Record lead of Join vs Stay Out in this @YouGov series. https://bit.ly/3G9hMK4

    His current EU position will suit him well enough for the next election, but Starmer's going to be under considerable pressure mid-term from backbench MPs (like Stella Creasy) to rejoin the EEA if he becomes PM.
    Rejoiners are going to use the Labour Party to rejoin the EEA/EU the way eurosceptics used the Conservative Party to get Brexit.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    Err, no they won't.
    As someone born in the early 80s my sense of what the 70s were like comes from Carry On films, the Confessions films, and the Moore Bond films.

    Bring them on!
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,919
    Farooq said:

    During a cost of living crisis, the wealth of the people making the decisions becomes more salient.
    The Conservative Party has spent the last few years stoking populist fires, much against the advice of sensible voices off. If a spark lands on their own roof as a result... it would take a heart of stone not to laugh.
    I think one thing key to Harold Wilson's success over the years was that he always seemed to be suffering along with every one else.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    Nah, they are narrow little nationalists, so they can’t be progressives.

    Wiki (obvious caveats) has the SNP down as "political position: centre-left".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited July 2022

    It depends upon what you mean as right. I'm right economically, but very liberal socially.

    So that would put me well to the right on economic issues, but not on social issues were "right" is typically taken to mean illiberal (then again, the left equally tend to be illiberal nowadays too). Patel is socially "right" which I don't like, she's far too illiberal and authoritarian for my tastes.

    I've not seen enough of Badenoch to judge her platform to be perfectly honest.
    That’s a prompt and fair enough answer, though I did have to read it three times.

    Social Libertarianism not really fitting into a left/right axis? Authoritarian/liberal is a different model than the left/right used for economics?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,567
    NEW: 1922 committee election results:

    Sir Graham Brady, chair
    Nus Ghani & Will Wragg, vice Chairman

    Executive:
    Aaron Bell
    Miriam Cates
    Jo Gideon
    Richard Graham
    Chris Green
    Robert Halfon
    Sally-Ann Hart
    Andrew Jones
    Tom Randall
    David Simmonds
    John Stevenson
    Martin Vickers
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    edited July 2022

    I think one thing key to Harold Wilson's success over the years was that he always seemed to be suffering along with every one else.
    As leader of the Labour Party, that bit was easy 😀
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I disagree, I think the next general election in 2024 could be decided in the coming weeks, and all the polling over this time can point us to it.
    That could be right, but it's more likely to show up in the details rather than the headline VI.

    We're entering one of the rare periods when normal people pay attention to politics, but I don't think we're quite there yet as there are still far too many candidates in the race.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    I am William Hague.

    Thatcher would not be cutting taxes now

    The pledges of Tory leadership hopefuls are fiscally unconservative and diverge from the party’s most successful leaders

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thatcher-would-not-be-cutting-taxes-now-v6hdzj99h

    Post of the day for me.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,178

    His current EU position will suit him well enough for the next election, but Starmer's going to be under considerable pressure mid-term from backbench MPs (like Stella Creasy) to rejoin the EEA if he becomes PM.
    Rejoiners are going to use the Labour Party to rejoin the EEA/EU the way eurosceptics used the Conservative Party to get Brexit.
    If the will of the people drifts that way (and the demographics are pretty suggestive), that's fine isn't it?

    If it turns out that the UK's current situation isn't what future UK wants, shouldn't future UK change things?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378

    Nah, they are narrow little nationalists, so they can’t be progressives.

    Lib Dems and Lucas would actively prop up a Labour government for a term in office.
    The SNP wouldn't (or at least wouldn't for any price Labour would be willing to pay).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Andy_JS said:

    I can envisage Johnson voting for Badenoch.

    I can envisage Johnson writing in "Johnson"....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,584

    As leader of the Labour Party, that bit was easy 😀
    Yes, he suffered for his principles so when he assumed office he ensured we did too. ;-)

    Actually, History is being quite kind to him - generally competent and kept us out of 'Nam. Puts him higher than most of his successors.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    edited July 2022
    Applicant said:

    That could be right, but it's more likely to show up in the details rather than the headline VI.

    We're entering one of the rare periods when normal people pay attention to politics, but I don't think we're quite there yet as there are still far too many candidates in the race.
    Agree. I think the winner of the leadership race in either main party tends to get a “winner’s” bonus. Unless they are a loon. And the the contest helps to define the debate in that party’s terms.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    Yes. Do it Penny. Strike those deals.
    I'd rather she didn't scrape the barrel though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Hague also had the endorsement of Thatcher.
    The Mummy Returned to do it. 🙂
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378
    Farooq said:

    That won't happen unless there's an electoral vehicle that can harm Labour by taking votes off them. The Eurosceptics only got the influence in the Conservative Party they did because the party was scared of UKIP taking votes.
    Who do you see doing this from a pro-European side? The Lib Dems?
    Either them or the Greens.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    biggles said:

    As someone born in the early 80s my sense of what the 70s were like comes from Carry On films, the Confessions films, and the Moore Bond films.

    Bring them on!
    Watch either the original "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" or the movie remake. Everything was either brown or sepia in the 70s. It was a grim time and committed huge sins with wallpaper, sideburns and out-of-control flares.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,567
    Quite interesting who didn't succeed: Bernard Jenkin and Alicia Kearns (both of whom were running for re-election), Braverman campaign manager Steve Baker, former ministers Andrew Murrison and Jesse Norman https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1546531386252836865
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,028
    biggles said:

    As someone born in the early 80s my sense of what the 70s were like comes from Carry On films, the Confessions films, and the Moore Bond films.

    Bring them on!
    They could try Frank Spencer as PM........where is Williamson when we need him......
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,760
    Scott_xP said:

    Even Priti know that Brexit is once again making us the sick man of Europe...

    @thetimes - Patel warns the party that the UK risks returning to the 1970s if the Conservatives don’t “grip” the cost of living crisis.

    “Everyone will remember what the 1970s was like,” she warned a panel of ERG members in Parliament.

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1546517469614972929

    I think the truth of it is that all Tory MPs with the exception of the odd zealot of amoeba-brain knew it was pointless, a fools charter and yet they, in a kind of Faustian pact with the braindead membership, pretended to be enthusiastic. I'd love to put all of them on a lie detector. The only person capable of fooling it would be Boris Johnson.

    Having said all that, thanks to said Faustian pact, we are now stuck with it. Very little point in talking about rejoin for the next decade; it would be as divisive as Brexit was. We have to learn to live with it and engage in gradual alignment with EU. What should it be called? "Ever closer almost union"?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,919
    Applicant said:

    That could be right, but it's more likely to show up in the details rather than the headline VI.

    We're entering one of the rare periods when normal people pay attention to politics, but I don't think we're quite there yet as there are still far too many candidates in the race.
    The autumn will be a very interesting time as a new PM and cabinet take office and party conference season

    Until then the polls are largely for those who apply them to the current position but which is not relevant to the dramatic change in narrative coming down the track
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,567
    And another one. @pritipatel is poised to launch her Tory leadership bid with promise to back fracking and scrap green levies, @kateferguson4 reports.

    But here's why ditching net zero would be scientifically, economically and electorally stupid.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/suffer-tories-stupid-party-net-zero-1735395
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,878

    Yes, he suffered for his principles so when he assumed office he ensured we did too. ;-)

    Actually, History is being quite kind to him - generally competent and kept us out of 'Nam. Puts him higher than most of his successors.
    4 of 5 elections won ain't bad either.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,760

    You're just boasting you have abs (plural).
    I have a one-pack.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    It was just a joke! (hence the LOL emoji)
    We are not here to joke around Sunil. Psephologica is a serious business 👩‍🎓

    God. My emoji looks sexy in that hat.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    biggles said:

    Agree. I think the winner of the leadership race in either main party tends to get a “winner’s” bonus. Unless they are a loon. And the the contest helps to define the debate in that party’s terms.

    Yeah, if there isn't a Tory bounce once the new leader is in place, then they're in big trouble. But if there is such a bounce, it wouldn't necessarily be significant.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    Watch either the original "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" or the movie remake. Everything was either brown or sepia in the 70s. It was a grim time and committed huge sins with wallpaper, sideburns and out-of-control flares.
    Yes I will give you the original Tinker Tailor as the case for the prosecution.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,028
    biggles said:

    As someone born in the early 80s my sense of what the 70s were like comes from Carry On films, the Confessions films, and the Moore Bond films.

    Bring them on!
    Pincher was clearly trying his best to represent your 70s memories.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008
    DavidL said:

    A completely unfair slur on an excellent band. They would have nothing to do with that lot.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ2X9SANsME
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    They are regressives. Nationalism is a poisonous hate filled creed. It is very backward. There is nothing modern about it.
    And a progressive party ought not to tolerate sexual predators the way the SNP seems to do
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Post of the day for me.
    And Just how 'unconservative' was the GBP450bn Sunak splashed on COVID.....?

    Just how 'unconservative' was the Chinese Communist Party's Lockdown policy? How 'unconservative' was furlough? How 'unconservative' was billions frittered away on fraud and wastage as Sunak tried to please SAGE and the unions.

    Listening to Sunak's bullsh8t, you'd think he was just coming into government after a Corbyn administration had been deposed from office after running out of money and going to the IMF

    This was his doing. He presided over this.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    They could try Frank Spencer as PM........where is Williamson when we need him......
    Yes sitcoms are the other argument in favour. Frank couldn’t even hold down a job and they had a nice enough house.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Pincher was clearly trying his best to represent your 70s memories.
    So is Rees-Mogg.

    The 1870's.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    biggles said:

    You really believe all our ills stem from leaving the EU don’t you?
    Yes
    biggles said:

    You really think we’ll be noticeably worse off outside.

    Yes
    biggles said:

    It really is like the reverse UKIP. For them everything bad was because of the EU, for you it’s Brexit.

    Fascinating.

    UKIP had a large proportion of nasties involved as well as imperial isolationists. The EU was not perfect and did a lot of things wrong, but we had a position of influence in there and it was largely a British creation as well. Over time it will get better and we will now be on the outside looking in even if we join EFTA / EEA.

    It was a project that we had a huge part in forming (we wrote huge swathes of their guidelines and directives) and we threw it all away because the Tory part sh*t themselves about UKIP.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The EU was not perfect and did a lot of things wrong, but we had a position of influence in there

    Riiiiiight.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:

    And another one. @pritipatel is poised to launch her Tory leadership bid with promise to back fracking and scrap green levies, @kateferguson4 reports.

    But here's why ditching net zero would be scientifically, economically and electorally stupid.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/suffer-tories-stupid-party-net-zero-1735395

    Lefties desperate to prevent the public being offered an alternative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Fishing said:

    I could see us joining some kind of EU-very-lite - just free trade without political union, the euro or freedom of movement (as the EU misleadingly calls abolishing immigration controls). Call it the "European Free Trade Association" or something.

    But they'll never have the wit to offer that to us.
    They would also try to extract an eye-wateringly high price for it.

    And Scott_P would write out the cheque whatever it cost. However many hospitals we had to close to achieve it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,567
    TAX CUTS BY NUMBERS via @_DavidGoodman

    Javid wants £40bn of tax cuts
    Truss wants £34bn
    Zahawi looking at £32bn
    Shapps £22bn
    Hunt seeking £20bn
    Tugendhat £18bn
    Mordaunt £5bn
    Sunak "fairtytales"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/where-the-candidates-to-replace-boris-johnson-stand-on-uk-taxes?srnd=premium-uk
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682

    I have a one-pack.

    I'm not surprised with the price of fags ....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,760

    Wiki (obvious caveats) has the SNP down as "political position: centre-left".
    It is an interesting idea that the tag "progressive" is given to those on the left. Most often those on the left appear to want to take the world back to the 1970s. They are similar in outlook to the more swivelly-eyed Tory membership that would like us to go back to the 1950s. They only seem to be interested in genuinely modern ideas as long as it trolls those on the other side of the spectrum.
This discussion has been closed.