politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the fi
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Indeed, the Yes campaign has been ruthless but effective. However, currency was their one huge slip-up. If they had just come out and said "Ideally we'd have a currency union, but Plan B is a Scottish pound, maintaining the same Scottish bank notes we've always had", then the No side wouldn't have been able to make a big thing of currency union.DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
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Did you see the snippet from the FT about Gordon standing for Holyrood? Your postcard must have workedNickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
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I'm impressed with the virility of political campaigners if they can knock up a whole area multiple times in one day.NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
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IIRC some - but not all - of the LDs did on tuition fees, at one point, but I may be wrong.Socrates said:
I believe the Conservative and Lib Dem MPs in Scotland don't vote on English matters, but the Labour MPs are of a lower moral standard.Carnyx said:Socrates said:
It's a basic question of fairness. If England doesn't get a say on devolved matters in Scotland, your MPs shouldn't get a say on the same matters in England. Given the untrustworthiness of politicians, a gentleman's agreement is unacceptable. No more Scottish influence should be allowed on any issue covered by devomax. While we're at it, we can return to equal spending levels in Scotland and England.Carnyx said:
What I find bizarre is the concern about the WLQ. A true breach of the WLQ happens so rarely in reality, and although the cases of the student fees and NHS were important and pretty bad, there is a lot more activity in Parliament than that.Cyclefree said:
Unless they get the legislation on the statute book before May 2015, this is so much hot air. I don't trust either the Tories or the Lib Dems to deliver and Labour certainly won't.taffys said:A couple of news sources are hinting there's a bit of a tory/lib pact to shaft labour if we get a no - in the form of powers to freeze scots MPs out of English matters in return for devomax.
It should have been made part of the Vow. Instead, Cameron - who has all the strategic nous of a blancmange - got stitched up by Brown and Scottish Labour.
Surely it would be political suicide for Labour and the LDs to try it on again?
Any other solution than a gents agreement risks introducing new problems.
Point taken, in both cases. But, without an English Pmt of comparable rank, the asymmetry makes it hard to legislate without more problems.Cyclefree said:
[snip]
That rather depends on there being "gents" in Parliament, though.
The very existence of a gents agreement, of course, creates the possibility that it will be broken - but also lays down a line to define disapproval and attract opprobrium.
It does seem genuinely odd that there is no such agreement, given, for instance, the use of pairing. Was one never considered? Yet if the SNP can have a unilateral self-denying ordinance ...?
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I don't think so. The problem with this plan B is that Scotland won't have the necessary reserves, at least not without massive austerity. Beyond this, all the SNP's Plan B's are a terrible idea economically.Socrates said:
Indeed, the Yes campaign has been ruthless but effective. However, currency was their one huge slip-up. If they had just come out and said "Ideally we'd have a currency union, but Plan B is a Scottish pound, maintaining the same Scottish bank notes we've always had", then the No side wouldn't have been able to make a big thing of currency union.DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.0 -
Like many people my working week is not Monday-Friday you clueless Tory posho! Day off.SeanT said:
It's 2pm on a workday. If you have the time to "sink a few beers nowish", then go to bed, you are either filthy rich yourself, or on generous disability benefits.Hugh said:So how are we all playing this?
Should I have a few beers nowish, go to bed around tea time, up around 1 to watch the results? Or not be such a sad sack and just check the news in the morning like a normal person?
I know most of you are hi-rollin City schmucks who can pick and choose when you work, but some here must have a day job?
Southam, I can't sleep on demand, hence the few beers. Decided it's better to just keep normal hours though. Results not in until the morning anyway, if turnout is a billion %0 -
It was part of an overall strategic error (born of hubris, arrogance or simply 'not thinking things through'?) of promising things not within their gift (EU membership, 'social union' etc etc) and when challenged as to what the alternative was retorting with 'they're bluffing'......Socrates said:
Indeed, the Yes campaign has been ruthless but effective. However, currency was their one huge slip-up. If they had just come out and said "Ideally we'd have a currency union, but Plan B is a Scottish pound, maintaining the same Scottish bank notes we've always had", then the No side wouldn't have been able to make a big thing of currency union.DanSmith said:
Salmond has had a superb campaign whatever happens, YES was nowhere near winning a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
Quite. If Yes is lost, will it be Salmond's "don't scare the horses" strategy that deserves the blame? While he's carried C2DE with his free sunshine, I suspect a lot of ABs have been put off by the incoherent mess on currency. Much better to have said "it'll be tricky at first, but we'll do it" - which defuses his opponent's attacks, than "they're bluffing" and "I'm right, they're wrong".BlackDouglas said:
I include the SNP in this. If they knew anything about monetary economics they would have gone for an iCurrency. The campaign advantages would have been huge but they turned that area of policy into a liability.
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Well they say that as you get older you need less sleep though I have never been convinced of that. As a young soldier I could go for extended periods on with very little sleep as long as I could cat-nap for multiple short periods (even 10-15 minutes) throughout the day. However, after coming off such a period of intense activity I needed vary long sleeps which were filled with very vivid dreams - the body playing catch-up, perhaps.SouthamObserver said:
I do not need that much sleep. If I get five hours most nights of the week I am fine. It's been the same for years - ever since we had kids, in fact (first one 24 years ago). They changed my sleep patterns for ever, the selfish gits.HurstLlama said:
Crumbs, Mr. O., have you thought of talking to someone about that problem? Doesn't sound healthy to me. Unless you are going to be playing the markets minute by minute, that is a lot of nervous energy expended on something you can't affect. Going without proper sleep is a doubleplus ungood habit.SouthamObserver said:I am profoundly jealous of anyone who can decide to go to sleep when they want to. I'll be up from now until the result is confirmed because I have no other option - I won't sleep until it is decided, there'll be too much rushing around inside my head.
Margaret Thatcher supposedly needed no more than four hours sleep each day and she ended up ga-ga. Not taking one's full ration of rest must have a long term effect.0 -
I should think that the UK is only really unpopular in Irish Republican enclaves around the world, and some fanatical Islamic States. To be hated by such people is actually something of a compliment.SeanT said:
Britain is the third most admired nation on earth.Socrates said:
We are liked around the world. We're very popular in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. From India to China to Nigeria, the newly rich of the emerging world aspire to become British gentlemen with Anglophile cultural habits. It's mainly in Europe where we don't have friends.BlackDouglas said:BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22624104
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High turn out could go either way, still I think it would besslightly more positive for Yes as IPSOS had new voters breaking for yes 53-47.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.0 -
Good afternoon, fellow patriotic Britons.
Feels odd after saturation coverage to have minimal mention on the news, until 10pm when it'll be the only story.0 -
''Plan B is a Scottish pound, maintaining the same Scottish bank notes we've always had", then the No side wouldn't have been able to make a big thing of currency union.
The Scottish pound would be have trading at an immediate discount to the English one if they had done that, wouldn;t it?
It would have in effect proved NO's points.0 -
Even if there is a 90% turnout, what proportion will be spolit ballot papers?
Incidentally the Western Isles returning officer said there was an 87% turnout of postal votes as at yesterday.
Don't forget that most postal votes will have been completed when first received and before the minor YES surge. So pollsters should take that into account.
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I don't think so. IPSOS has a NO lead and a 90%+ turnout prediction. The bias you discuss would already be allowed for in their figures.MaxPB said:
High turn out could go either way, still I think it would besslightly more positive for Yes as IPSOS had new voters breaking for yes 53-47.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.0 -
Wow - using figures 5 years out of date! That's a really persuasive argument.Socrates said:
Even if you allot the oil revenue to the Scottish government, Scotland is still a net taker from the Treasury.TheWatcher said:
Remind us how much Scottish oil is worth to the UK, a monetary value. Please.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
http://www.isitfair.co.uk/reports/public/oe ukpublicfinance.pdf
Try using GERS 2012-13 pages 18&19 instead for the most recent figures, and must go that far back, look at 1980-88 period as well.0 -
Mr. Llama, Napoleon also slept four hours a night (in two sets of two hours). I copied his sleep pattern once (I was a psych student at the time). I do not recommend it. It not only ruined my sleep pattern (I was exhausted the next day) it also wrecked my appetite (as per Napoleon I had a small bite to eat between two hour sessions of sleep).0
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Just spoke with a teller who spent the morning at booth in North Lanarks. 45% voted by 1pm. Expectation is almost 90% will vote. Many people at this booth were old. They were turning up in wheelchairs with helpers etc. The young are more Yes, the old more No as we know. At this booth it was about 50/50, Yes/No. This is an ex-mining area. No-one knows if the high vote will help or hinder the Yes campaign but the thought is that at least at this booth it will probably help the No more.
The booths are fairly quiet now and waiting the next big rush when people leave work.
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You mean the negative £12bn a year in GERS 2012/13?sarissa said:
Wow - using figures 5 years out of date! That's a really persuasive argument.Socrates said:
Even if you allot the oil revenue to the Scottish government, Scotland is still a net taker from the Treasury.TheWatcher said:
Remind us how much Scottish oil is worth to the UK, a monetary value. Please.BlackDouglas said:
Are you joking? We had Jo Stiglitz urging a Yes vote the other day. Former chief economist at the World Bank. We have economists right, left and centre backing Yes. And hard-headed business figures? Our top entrepreneurs are pretty much pro-Yes like Tom Farmer, Jim McColl, Brian Souter all pro-Yes. It's the corporate elite which indulges in group think that is against independence - they know if the oil goes the City will teeter on the brink of collapse.. You lot are really projecting your own prejudices on a situation which is widely different from reality. Incredibly so!Norm said:Ed Conway of the Times writes "The only people certain to benefit are lawyers, who will have to renegotiate untold numbers of contracts, for business, for mortgages, for consumers, written on the presumption of this remaining one country."
No wonder Antifrank mentions he would be considerably richer in the event of a Yes victory.
Fortunately as the Nats have made the fatal flaw of not spelling out how the process to independence could actually work - it is noticeable how many romantic dreamers have been the public face of Yes (comedians, actors, musicians and the like rather than hard headed economists and business people) - they will lose this vote.
http://www.isitfair.co.uk/reports/public/oe ukpublicfinance.pdf
Try using GERS 2012-13 pages 18&19 instead for the most recent figures, and must go that far back, look at 1980-88 period as well.
I used the data from earlier period because it hasn't changed much and we can also see how much the South East of England pays in. This whole country is run at the expense of the South East.0 -
Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
Don't panic - the Labour party conference starts on Sunday doesn't it ?Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, fellow patriotic Britons.
Feels odd after saturation coverage to have minimal mention on the news, until 10pm when it'll be the only story.0 -
Ah the joys of unsubstantiated anecdote.hamiltonace said:Just spoke with a teller who spent the morning at booth in North Lanarks. 45% voted by 1pm. Expectation is almost 90% will vote. Many people at this booth were old. They were turning up in wheelchairs with helpers etc. The young are more Yes, the old more No as we know. At this booth it was about 50/50, Yes/No. This is an ex-mining area. No-one knows if the high vote will help or hinder the Yes campaign but the thought is that at least at this booth it will probably help the No more.
The booths are fairly quiet now and waiting the next big rush when people leave work.
I think we would all be far better served just thinking about other things until some real data starts to emerge. Endless speculation isn't doing anyone any good.0 -
NL is strong YES territory no ?hamiltonace said:Just spoke with a teller who spent the morning at booth in North Lanarks. 45% voted by 1pm. Expectation is almost 90% will vote. Many people at this booth were old. They were turning up in wheelchairs with helpers etc. The young are more Yes, the old more No as we know. At this booth it was about 50/50, Yes/No. This is an ex-mining area. No-one knows if the high vote will help or hinder the Yes campaign but the thought is that at least at this booth it will probably help the No more.
The booths are fairly quiet now and waiting the next big rush when people leave work.0 -
If you believe Jack's ARSE you can get 14s now on YES sub 40.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
Got to start thinking about a new PM before that, after Cameron's resignation in the morningTGOHF said:
Don't panic - the Labour party conference starts on Sunday doesn't it ?Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, fellow patriotic Britons.
Feels odd after saturation coverage to have minimal mention on the news, until 10pm when it'll be the only story.0 -
William Hill - Council area with the highest No vote
Dumfries and Galloway 4/1
Borders 5/1
South Ayrshire 6/1
Shetland 13/2
East Renfrewshire 7/1
Orkney 9/1
East Dunbartonshire 10/1
Edinburgh 12/1
Renfrewshire 14/1
East Lothian 20/1
Fife 25/1
Inverclyde 25/1
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Wow - using figures 5 years out of date! That's a really persuasive argument.
Oil reserves are not a guarantee of prosperity. See Venezuela for details.
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Anecdotes are interesting. Why don't you go and have a nice cup of tea and a nap, then come back tomorrow when the result is known.oxfordsimon said:
Ah the joys of unsubstantiated anecdote.hamiltonace said:Just spoke with a teller who spent the morning at booth in North Lanarks. 45% voted by 1pm. Expectation is almost 90% will vote. Many people at this booth were old. They were turning up in wheelchairs with helpers etc. The young are more Yes, the old more No as we know. At this booth it was about 50/50, Yes/No. This is an ex-mining area. No-one knows if the high vote will help or hinder the Yes campaign but the thought is that at least at this booth it will probably help the No more.
The booths are fairly quiet now and waiting the next big rush when people leave work.
I think we would all be far better served just thinking about other things until some real data starts to emerge. Endless speculation isn't doing anyone any good.0 -
Yes just reached 6 on Betfair.0
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Still TCTC but I would suggest if No can hold the industrial belt to 50/50 it will win on the rural and affluent suburbs vote.0
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I'm sure I saw recently some research that claimed that sleep was used to remove proteins from the brain.. I'm not sure what the proteins did....HurstLlama said:
Well they say that as you get older you need less sleep though I have never been convinced of that. As a young soldier I could go for extended periods on with very little sleep as long as I could cat-nap for multiple short periods (even 10-15 minutes) throughout the day. However, after coming off such a period of intense activity I needed vary long sleeps which were filled with very vivid dreams - the body playing catch-up, perhaps.
Margaret Thatcher supposedly needed no more than four hours sleep each day and she ended up ga-ga. Not taking one's full ration of rest must have a long term effect.0 -
It's not going to be currency that sunk the Yes campaign if that is the result, it will be failure to convince OAPs. That's where the hardest code of No voters are.0
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That can't be right. I'm sure I remember that he's already resigned, several times in fact, most recently when Andy Coulson was found guilty.Hugh said:Got to start thinking about a new PM before that, after Cameron's resignation in the morning
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True. And lots of them are suggesting a lot of soft Nos breaking for Yes...Anorak said:
Anecdotes are interesting. Why don't you go and have a nice cup of tea and a nap, then come back tomorrow when the result is know.oxfordsimon said:
Ah the joys of unsubstantiated anecdote.hamiltonace said:Just spoke with a teller who spent the morning at booth in North Lanarks. 45% voted by 1pm. Expectation is almost 90% will vote. Many people at this booth were old. They were turning up in wheelchairs with helpers etc. The young are more Yes, the old more No as we know. At this booth it was about 50/50, Yes/No. This is an ex-mining area. No-one knows if the high vote will help or hinder the Yes campaign but the thought is that at least at this booth it will probably help the No more.
The booths are fairly quiet now and waiting the next big rush when people leave work.
I think we would all be far better served just thinking about other things until some real data starts to emerge. Endless speculation isn't doing anyone any good.0 -
I'm calling it No.
Picture of ASalmond surrounded by photographers looking far from victorious. Looking like there's a great big emptiness inside him. More than usual.
No it is.
(copyright: PG Tips, etc)0 -
And lots of them are suggesting a lot of soft Nos breaking for Yes...
I thought you were off for a few beers and a kip. Does the student union not open in the afternoons?0 -
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Mr. Flashman (deceased), Sunday will be dominated by the far more important F1 race in Singapore.0
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That's pretty much my expectation. Almost 50/50 in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, West Lothian, East Ayrshire, etc. Posh areas like East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire, South Ayrshire voting No by around 60/40 or perhaps 65/35.hamiltonace said:Still TCTC but I would suggest if No can hold the industrial belt to 50/50 it will win on the rural and affluent suburbs vote.
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There seems to be an assumption that a high turnout favours No as Yes voters are more motivated. Surely it's the other way around?
I've always assumed that the elderly generally always vote but the young don't necessarily. Given that OAPs favour No it could be that lower turnout is an older electorate so No gains bit higher turnout is more age balanced which is good news for Yes?0 -
If it's 50/50 heading into the post work vote rush I think YES would take that.hamiltonace said:
Still TCTC but I would suggest if No can hold the industrial belt to 50/50 it will win on the rural and affluent suburbs vote.
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Talking of the Labour Party conference - if tonight's result is No, will Miliband push Gordon Brown front and centre next week as the former PM is now seen as something of a oratorial and tactical colossus?0
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Paddy Power - Turnout
Over 83% 8/15
Under 83% 11/80 -
BenM said:
Talking of the Labour Party conference - if tonight's result is No, will Miliband push Gordon Brown front and centre next week as the former PM is now seen as something of a oratorial and tactical colossus?
Not if he wants to avoid alienating potential English Labour voters.0 -
''Will Miliband push Gordon Brown front and centre next week as the former PM is now seen as something of a oratorial and tactical colossus''
Talk about living in a parallel universe...0 -
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/10 -
With these sorts of things it often pays to go for the smallest population as random fluctuations are likely to be greater -so Shetland it is for.Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - Council area with the highest No vote
Dumfries and Galloway 4/1
Borders 5/1
South Ayrshire 6/1
Shetland 13/2
East Renfrewshire 7/1
Orkney 9/1
East Dunbartonshire 10/1
Edinburgh 12/1
Renfrewshire 14/1
East Lothian 20/1
Fife 25/1
Inverclyde 25/1
33 bar0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
There seems to be an assumption that a high turnout favours No as Yes voters are more motivated. Surely it's the other way around?
I've always assumed that the elderly generally always vote but the young don't necessarily. Given that OAPs favour No it could be that lower turnout is an older electorate so No gains bit higher turnout is more age balanced which is good news for Yes?
One of the polls showed 16-18 year olds significantly favoured NO.0 -
Mr. M, in Scotland, perhaps.0
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Don't believe them. It won't be higher than 85%.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.0 -
The £ comfortably up today.0
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BetFair out to 6 for YES. It strikes me as highly likely it will come in from this point at some time today / tomorrow, independent of the result (unless an overwhelming NO). Trading opportunities...0
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One did. Any young voters are more than just those. All polls I know of show the retired as supporting No.David_Evershed said:Philip_Thompson said:There seems to be an assumption that a high turnout favours No as Yes voters are more motivated. Surely it's the other way around?
I've always assumed that the elderly generally always vote but the young don't necessarily. Given that OAPs favour No it could be that lower turnout is an older electorate so No gains bit higher turnout is more age balanced which is good news for Yes?
One of the polls showed 16-18 year olds significantly favoured NO.0 -
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
In most European countries they seem to release official turnout figures throughout the day, which is useful and interesting.NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
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Surely continuity is the best value. What are the rules?Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/10 -
Yes more useful to a politico or political punter . The human side is more interesting though to most casual viewers . Stats get left to when the polls shut and only hardened politicos are upNickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
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Well, quite.jam2809 said:BetFair out to 6 for YES. It strikes me as highly likely it will come in from this point at some time today / tomorrow, independent of the result (unless an overwhelming NO). Trading opportunities...
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See Hills.Grandiose said:
Surely continuity is the best value. What are the rules?Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/10 -
Have they set a timescale for that? Any change to the flag would likely take a long time to be decided upon. I recall that Neil has pointed out that it wasn't until ~1931 that the name of the country was changed from "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland" to "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland", to reflect the Independence of the Irish Free State/Republic.Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/1
If they choose the date of Independence then the flag will almost certainly still be red, white and blue.0 -
Grandiose said:
Surely continuity is the best value. What are the rules?Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/1
how about a map ignoring Scotland -pretend it does no exist anymore
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Tory Cityboys with more money than brains.Stuart_Dickson said:
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
It's trading at nearly 6 because the market does not think it is 50/50Stuart_Dickson said:
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
"Hey, Gordon, you know we've basically ruined your reputation for the last four years, yes, yes, I know, had to be done, you'd have done the same, well, not you, Derek or Damian or one of them. How is Derek nowadays? Oh, really? Not so intimate with power. Shame. So. Anyway, we're starting to worry we won't actually win the election next year and with your track record of not winning elections, do you fancy coming on board?"
0 -
The reason turnout is never as high as people expect is because on any given day there will be, for example, tens of thousands of elderly people who suddenly find they're not well enough to leave the house, whereas the previous day they were fine, and so haven't made arrangements for a postal vote or for anyone to help get them to the polling station. Also thousands of people will find something important "comes up" in terms of their family/personal life which means they don't have time to vote. Another factor is that the electoral register is never entirely accurate despite the best efforts of those who compile it. Once you've added up all these things it always knocks a few percentage points off the expected turnout.0
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How will an independent Scotland defend itself if the Russians decide the North Sea oil platforms are in Russian territorial waters?0
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That is exactly what I was thinking, with makes the 5/6 price on a Yes victory in North Lanarkshire look quite tasty. (Both Lad + PP)DanSmith said:If it's 50/50 heading into the post work vote rush I think YES would take that.
hamiltonace said:Still TCTC but I would suggest if No can hold the industrial belt to 50/50 it will win on the rural and affluent suburbs vote.
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I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
0 -
It's probably more than a little sad, but what an exciting day after what has been a rather exciting week for me.
I'm going to give no predictions; I just hope that however it goes, the Scots and English can still be friends in the short, medium and long term.0 -
If one recalls that about 10% of the population moves each year, and so are consequently registered to vote at more than one address, than a 90% [real] turnout would be recorded as an 81% turnout, because of the excess people on the register.AndyJS said:
Don't believe them. It won't be higher than 85%.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.
A turnout of 85% on the official figures could be as high as 94% in reality.0 -
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
THAT has got to be one of the top five daftest PB posts of the year. And gee whizz, the competition is tough.
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That's right. I'm referring to he official turnout figure.OblitusSumMe said:
If one recalls that about 10% of the population moves each year, and so are consequently registered to vote at more than one address, than a 90% [real] turnout would be recorded as an 81% turnout, because of the excess people on the register.AndyJS said:
Don't believe them. It won't be higher than 85%.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.
A turnout of 85% on the official figures could be as high as 94% in reality.0 -
North Sea Oil & Gas is fast becoming depleted. The future is the vast wealth from fracking in ENGLAND.taffys said:Wow - using figures 5 years out of date! That's a really persuasive argument.
Oil reserves are not a guarantee of prosperity. See Venezuela for details.0 -
So long as it reaches 87% which is where my PB prediction is.......OblitusSumMe said:
If one recalls that about 10% of the population moves each year, and so are consequently registered to vote at more than one address, than a 90% [real] turnout would be recorded as an 81% turnout, because of the excess people on the register.AndyJS said:
Don't believe them. It won't be higher than 85%.SeanT said:Rumours of a 90% turnout now possible
My instant reaction to that is; Jesus, YES must win.
But an alternative theory is doing the rounds: apathetic NO voters are also turning out, in unexpectedly large numbers (as the IPSOS poll implies). So a bigger turnout is not the miracle pill for YES.
Eeeek. Who knows.
A turnout of 85% on the official figures could be as high as 94% in reality.
0 -
Oh.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
THAT has got to be one of the top five daftest PB posts of the year. And gee whizz, the competition is tough.
Excellent, do I win something?
Meanwhile are you saying that both Yes & No have details of how each voter voted in the last independence referendum?
How does it work/has it worked up there?0 -
If Western Isles is the first result and it's a Yes, the Betfair market is bound to overreact.Stuart_Dickson said:
Well, quite.jam2809 said:BetFair out to 6 for YES. It strikes me as highly likely it will come in from this point at some time today / tomorrow, independent of the result (unless an overwhelming NO). Trading opportunities...
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I sometimes wonder how some posters even found their way to a politics website in the first place.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
THAT has got to be one of the top five daftest PB posts of the year. And gee whizz, the competition is tough.0 -
.If one recalls that about 10% of the population moves each year, and so are consequently registered to vote at more than one address, than a 90% [real] turnout would be recorded as an 81% turnout, because of the excess people on the register.
A turnout of 85% on the official figures could be as high as 94% in reality.
Except that registers are updated on a monthly basis, and this applies to people dropping off, as well as those coming on.
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Indeed. But absolutely fine by me!Hugh said:
Tory Cityboys with more money than brains.Stuart_Dickson said:
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power) 0 -
No it hasn't. If it had gone out to 6, Alistair would have told us.AndyJS said:Betfair reaches 6 for Yes:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.1100333870 -
You clearly do not have the faintest clue about what has been happening in Scotland during the last two years. I don't really see it as my job to educate you.TOPPING said:
Oh.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
THAT has got to be one of the top five daftest PB posts of the year. And gee whizz, the competition is tough.
Excellent, do I win something?
Meanwhile are you saying that both Yes & No have details of how each voter voted in the last independence referendum?
How does it work/has it worked up there?0 -
I agree. There is no need to change except for possibly an offiocial change to the blue colour and width of the white cross.Grandiose said:
Surely continuity is the best value. What are the rules?Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/10 -
Shhhhhhhh!AndyJS said:
If Western Isles is the first result and it's a Yes, the Betfair market is bound to overreact.Stuart_Dickson said:
Well, quite.jam2809 said:BetFair out to 6 for YES. It strikes me as highly likely it will come in from this point at some time today / tomorrow, independent of the result (unless an overwhelming NO). Trading opportunities...
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Quite possibly. But it means there is free money here for everyone else. No-way the real odds are 6 for YES. Given the GBP recovery today, there is a good argument that the best way to bet on YES right now is to sell some pounds. The logic being NO => pound little changed (so no loss) while YES => big (10%+?) fall in the pound (so a large profit)...Hugh said:
Tory Cityboys with more money than brains.Stuart_Dickson said:
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
Of course above 6 , betfair goes to increments of 0.2..0
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Can anyone remember the last time No dropped below 1.20 on Betfair? It's been a while but it's 1.19 now. Probably doesn't mean anything but it's been well above 1.20 for months I am sure..0
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How would the UK as it exists today? The RN is not actually over endowed with deployable assets and has a very limited anti-surface warfare capability and I think that the RAF no longer has any anti-ship capability at all.David_Evershed said:How will an independent Scotland defend itself if the Russians decide the North Sea oil platforms are in Russian territorial waters?
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OK no problem. I suppose if I worked it through (why I am spending time on this I'm not sure) I would say that databases have been built up through canvassing and therefore there is that basis upon which to GOTV.Stuart_Dickson said:
You clearly do not have the faintest clue about what has been happening in Scotland during the last two years. I don't really see it as my job to educate you.TOPPING said:
Oh.Stuart_Dickson said:
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.TOPPING said:
I'm pretty sure that neither the Yes nor BT campaign has a database the like of which are present at GEs whereby you know that Joe or Joanne Smith at No. 39 hasn't voted yet and needs to be knocked up (and there's a flexibility for you @Socrates).NickPalmer said:Something I've always found puzzling - at elections as well - is that there is almost no reporting during the day of actual turnout so far at selected polling stations. It's routine for party campaigners to check ("Midshire East is only on 18% at 1pm, we need to knock that area up again"), and although polling station officials aren't required to give the information to journalists, I'm sure most would if asked (just "how many people have voted here so far?"), and if not, the campaign will have the info. It'd be a lot more useful than this "Andrea Statham, a 22 year old hairdresser, says she is sill in doubt" stuff.
THAT has got to be one of the top five daftest PB posts of the year. And gee whizz, the competition is tough.
Excellent, do I win something?
Meanwhile are you saying that both Yes & No have details of how each voter voted in the last independence referendum?
How does it work/has it worked up there?
I suppose that must be it if you're not going to educate me and I don't want educating.
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Given the Union Flag pre-dates the Act of Union, there is no reason for it to change subsequent to independence.Flightpath said:
I agree. There is no need to change except for possibly an offiocial change to the blue colour and width of the white cross.Grandiose said:
Surely continuity is the best value. What are the rules?Stuart_Dickson said:William Hill - What Colours Will The Union Flag Be If Scotland Votes Yes To Independence?
Red And White EVS
Red White And Blue 11/4
Green Red And White 4/1
Black White And Red 6/1
Blue, Yellow And White 50/1
Orange, White And Red 50/1
Pink Green and Purple 500/1
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There's been very little discussion in the media or elsewhere on a possible social divide between Yes and No supporters, which is a bit odd IMO. Most of the anecdotal evidence appears to be that the wealthier someone is the more likely they are to vote No.0
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FiveThirtyEight has broken down the reporting areas by their SNP lean
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-rough-guide-to-watching-the-scottish-independence-vote/0 -
The £ now tops 1.64.0
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I cannot believe it's risen to 6 on betfair. It seems way too high, it tempts me just to lump more on it. New voter % market on betfair just opened too.0
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And the polling evidence - if it was D&E's it would be a YES landslide.AndyJS said:There's been very little discussion in the media or elsewhere on a possible social divide between Yes and No supporters, which is a bit odd IMO. Most of the anecdotal evidence appears to be that the wealthier someone is the more likely they are to vote No.
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I vaguely recall the SNP's navel defence plan after independence was for 2 ships, at least initially. Presumably one for the East coast, another for the West.HurstLlama said:
How would the UK as it exists today? The RN is not actually over endowed with deployable assets and has a very limited anti-surface warfare capability and I think that the RAF no longer has any anti-ship capability at all.David_Evershed said:How will an independent Scotland defend itself if the Russians decide the North Sea oil platforms are in Russian territorial waters?
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Correct, it's solidly 5.9!rcs1000 said:
No it hasn't. If it had gone out to 6, Alistair would have told us.AndyJS said:Betfair reaches 6 for Yes:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.1100333870 -
Very risky. The logic NO => £ little changed has no logic. Cable could be at $1.66 tomorrow.jam2809 said:
Quite possibly. But it means there is free money here for everyone else. No-way the real odds are 6 for YES. Given the GBP recovery today, there is a good argument that the best way to bet on YES right now is to sell some pounds. The logic being NO => pound little changed (so no loss) while YES => big (10%+?) fall in the pound (so a large profit)...Hugh said:
Tory Cityboys with more money than brains.Stuart_Dickson said:
You could say the same about the overall result, yet Yes is currently trading at 5.9AndyJS said:
Personally I wouldn't bet on Glasgow because IMO it's going to be 50/50 and impossible to guess precisely which way it'll go.Stuart_Dickson said:Yes price tightens in Glasgow
Best prices - Glasgow result
Yes 8/11 (Ladbrokes, SkyBet)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)0 -
For Yes to win we are looking at a massive polling error.
Final two polls - No +6
Previous five polls (all within last 48 hours) - all have No +4 at least (except one No +2)
Polling momentum in last 48 hours - marginally towards No.
Media all saying it's close but is it really?
Suppose we had the above numbers in final polls for Con and Lab at the GE - what would be the chance of the Party behind in the polls winning in terms of votes (forget seats - seats don't apply here).
Shadsy said "fair odds" No 1/8 before the final MORI - I think fair odds would now be No 1/10.0
