Why replacing Boris Johnson will not be enough – politicalbetting.com

But it would be so welcome; cheering in the streets, street parties across the land, bumper sales of champagne and at pubs and bars, happy faces everywhere….just the lift we all need in these difficult times.

Morning all.

You are quite right TSE. Johnson won in 2019 not only because of the red wall but because enough of middle Britain also voted for him. Now he, and the tories, can guarantee neither.

I fear Penny Mordaunt because she would be capable of winning back the centre that Boris Johnson has lost. If on the other hand they were to elect someone who continues this red meat to red wall approach then they will consign themselves to a hefty defeat.

Appealing solely to the base, in every sense, never works. Every winning politician has reached across.

Lots of pertinent anecdotes in this article. And on topic reflecting the gulf between Johnson’s bluster and the sad reality;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone. Another fine bright one!
Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.

Funny place to have a party?

Heathener said:

Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

He's losing it.

Good morning

He has lost it 100% and needs removing now

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

He's losing it.

Good morning

He has lost it 100% and needs removing now

I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

Preparing for his very own podium speech?

Only if he’s taken up F1.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

Wasn't he around last night? I wasn't so, I don't know!

Anyway he's probably at church.

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

Wasn't he around last night? I wasn't so, I don't know!

Anyway he's probably at church.

He was on first thing this morning (as in, 1.20 am) according to his profile, but didn’t post.

StuartDickson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

Preparing for his very own podium speech?

I'm thinking flanked by Dorries and Rees-Mogg. A losers podium....

Heathener said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

This is the sensible and sane option for the Party. It won't be pretty, especially if Johnson does dig in, but it's the obvious way of resolving it.

But will sufficient numbers of tory MPs finally bite the bullet?

It must be remembered the constituency chairs also input into the anger and his comments since Thursday will not have pacified them

For everyone's sake Johnson, just go

IanB2 said:

But it would be so welcome; cheering in the streets, street parties across the land, bumper sales of champagne and at pubs and bars, happy faces everywhere….just the lift we all need in these difficult times.

Necessary

But not sufficient.

But it is necessary.

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

He's losing it.

Good morning

He has lost it 100% and needs removing now

I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.

Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.

ydoethur said:

Jonathan said:

Doesn’t Boris have a point?

And he uses it very frequently to stuff young ladies.

Isn't that what he was saying in his speech?

Well quite. It’s a weak point, but ironically is has some truth to it. His Tory critics put him where he was, knowing exactly who he was. It’s a bit rich to complain about him now.

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

The two main broadsheet Scottish newspapers have been run into the ground by their owners as well as more general industry issues. So Scottish polling depends in part on London-based newspapers but those will have their attention elsewhere quite a lot of the time - UK as a whole, and so on. I imagine the polling budget has been spent on by-elections of late ...

Jonathan said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.

I misread thge last word as 'garage' ...

Jonathan said:

Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

I prefer to call the party "ConKip"

Carnyx said:

Jonathan said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.

I misread thge last word as 'garage' ...

And I misread that as 'Garbage,' which would work better given their current state.

Daveyboy1961 said:

Jonathan said:

Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

I prefer to call the party "ConKip"

There is something of the GOP about this Tory party. I suspect given the support in the country, we’re never going back to the old conservative, Conservative party even if they ditch Boris. The likes of Dorries and co are the future.

Dura_Ace said:

Carnyx said:

Rees-Mogg said last week he had no intention of monitoring the economic effects of Brexit. “I’m not going to make those sorts of assessments because lots were made before the referendum and they are all bilge,” he said.'

If there are any tories left who are still kidding themselves that Brexit is going to be not shit then they need to get rid of Johnson ASAFP. His radioactive unpopularity is starting to contaminate Brexit and its hair is falling out. Sooner or later large numbers of voters are going to make a conceptual connection between Johnson being a useless lying arsehole and the thing that he talked them into doing.

That comment from the fisherperson was particularly interesting because it's from a small boat association - precisely the kind which is disproportionately hit by the extra paperwork (and which was not covered in that voodoo poll claimed as showing that Scottish fisherfolk wanted Brexit but which turned out to be confined to self-selected skippers of the larger trawlers). Add the farmers and you should have some very worried Scottish Tory MPs and MSPs, especially after Mr Ross changed his mind again and lay on his back with his feet in the air and tummy exposed and tail over his nuts, and cringed to Big Dog.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today

Hope all went well; have a good flight back, both of you!

Jonathan said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

Jonathan said:

Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

I prefer to call the party "ConKip"

There is something of the GOP about this Tory party. I suspect given the support in the country, we’re never going back to the old conservative, Conservative party even if they ditch Boris. The likes of Dorries and co are the future.

Indeed, Johnson is a big spending, pro choice, social liberal, who under Carrie's influence has taken some action on climate change. The only thing he is really with the party right on is Brexit.

There are far more hardline Conservatives who could succeed him if the Tories head to opposition.

After Cameron, May and Johnson the right will be looking to ensure they get a hardliner as leader

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarqueeMark said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.

And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK

I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today

Sounds fun. Hope you had a good one.

Yes very good thanks

StuartDickson said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.

When she actually announces the how and when I’m sure there will be. With all due respect that was not an “announcement”. You are a priori supposing (a) someone commissioned a poll and (b) covered it up. You have no evidence for either. Just a conspiratorial frame of mind.

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
indyref2.

Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2

Does democracy matter?

For Scottish domestic policy at Holyrood, for the future of the Union at Westminster

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?

Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?

Someone who does it with matchsticks, obvs.

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
indyref2.

Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2

Does democracy matter?

For Scottish domestic policy at Holyrood, for the future of the Union at Westminster

I think you are missing @carnyx point. He wasn't suggesting it doesn't. He was was suggesting your comment implied it didn't, which we know you don't mean.

Compare and contrast

HYUFD said:

The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

against

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
indyref2.

Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2

The first post: Tories are finished. We can stop supporting lies corruption and malfeasance but the damage has been done, we're likely going to lose as people will vote for anyone but us.

The second post: We are still the Big I Am. Who cares how the non-Tories vote, we just tell them no.

HY mate - its over. The lesson of last week is that anti-Tory tactical voting can kill you lot for a decade. You personally may support Boris and therefore his criminality, lies and corruption, but increasingly few voters do. The people have had enough and will get shut of you. So, with respect to "does it really matter" - if "it" is your opinion on Scotland, the answer is "no".

Luckyguy1983 said:

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

He's losing it.

Good morning

He has lost it 100% and needs removing now

I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.

Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.

That's very badly written for a biographer.

Why, what's wrong with it?

On topic the thing that bemuses me most is that the damage that seems to have really wound up Tory grandees isn't the byelection losses. Its Johnson's response to them. His "I am sick of people whining on about my position" and "blah blah blah" and "I will go on and on and on" is what has really wound them up. Why?

Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.

How many 'referendum announcements' have there been to create such a view?

It sounds like they happen every generation year.

On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.

Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.

For instance:
https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx

Or Salisbury Cathedral 332 steps

https://www.salisburycathedral.org.uk/visit-us/tours-and-demonstrations/

Not that I have ever done it - no wheelchair lift. Outrageous! Didn't those medieval builders know about 'reasonable adjustments'?

Benpointer said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

JosiasJessop said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.

How many 'referendum announcements' have there been to create such a view?

It sounds like they happen every generation year.

On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.

Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.

For instance:
https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx

Or Salisbury Cathedral 332 steps

https://www.salisburycathedral.org.uk/visit-us/tours-and-demonstrations/

Not that I have ever done it - no wheelchair lift. Outrageous! Didn't those medieval builders know about 'reasonable adjustments'?

Annoyingly, I never did Salisbury tower whilst I lived nearby.

As for wheelchair: I daresay Mr Dancer could give you a boost with his medieval-style trebuchet.

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.

Political parties almost never publish internal polling. In fact, I can’t find the last example.

Sometimes it is leaked. I remember a big leak from Scottish Labour’s internal polling in the early 1990s.

Living in Sweden it is is understandable you missed this one in 2013.

Scottish independence poll puts Yes campaign in front

For the first time since August 2011, the nationalist side takes the lead by 44 to 43 per cent.

Until recently, every poll on Scottish independence since the beginning of 2012 had shown the No campaign in front, usually by a double-digit margin. But that trend ended today with the publication of a new Panelbase survey putting the Yes camp ahead by 44 to 43 per cent, the first time the nationalist side has led in a poll since August 2011.

The poll was commissioned by the SNP

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/scottish-independence-poll-puts-yes-campaign-front

Although curiously the SNP deleted it from their website, obviously they don't like being reminded they blew a Yes lead based on their own polls.

https://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/sep/year-go-yes-point-ahead

tlg86 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”

This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (Personally is go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.

I'm not very happy with 'pro choice' either, which is equally loaded.

Pro and anti abortion, which is if not factual (plenty of people can think abortion isn't great while not wishing to actually ban it) are at least more neutral, would be better.

Apologies for my outburst

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic the thing that bemuses me most is that the damage that seems to have really wound up Tory grandees isn't the byelection losses. Its Johnson's response to them. His "I am sick of people whining on about my position" and "blah blah blah" and "I will go on and on and on" is what has really wound them up. Why?

Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.

I am just waiting to see how the Tories try to use the control of the Electoral Commission they gave themselves to try to make tactical voting much more difficult. Whatever they choose to do, Braverman will give legal cover for.

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?

Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?

Lord Frost gives third-rate a bad name.

turbotubbs said:

tlg86 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”

This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (personally I’d go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.

Interesting to hear on the BBC the qualification about states banning abortion except where there is risk to the mother. This nuance seemed to be missing in a lot of the comments previously.
I don’t agree with the decision, but it suggests that changes will be a death sentence for women with ectopic pregnancies is a bit overblown.

Trouble with that is there is always a risk to the mother in childbirth, and after. That could be the next thing to go, if it isn't already in some states.

SouthamObserver said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

Stuartinromford said:

Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

However, there are problems.

First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.

So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?

Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?

Lord Frost gives third-rate a bad name.

I cant see him garnering more than about a dozen swivel-eyed Tory MPs as backers....