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Why replacing Boris Johnson will not be enough – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 3 in General
Why replacing Boris Johnson will not be enough – politicalbetting.com

… Even among Conservative voters, 46% say the Government has the wrong leader, including 25% who say it has both the wrong leader and ideas https://t.co/FbkX5AKftG pic.twitter.com/0bGZDnW6Bf

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,268
    First.... like Dowden
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    edited June 26
    But it would be so welcome; cheering in the streets, street parties across the land, bumper sales of champagne and at pubs and bars, happy faces everywhere….just the lift we all need in these difficult times.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,268
    BJ was partly successful in 2019 by branding his govt as a "new" administration, despite 9 years of Cons/coalition govt, that plus a vague oven ready BREXIT deal got him over the line..... its now come home to roost. The Blues need a real think about what they want/stand for in the 2020s esp given the events in Ukraine/COVID & economic whirlwind.... FWIW I dont think Labour have really come up with what they stand for and will deliver (esp ref the EU) however by not being Conservative that may just see them into some sort of givernance whenever the GE might be
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,416
    edited June 26
    Morning all.

    You are quite right TSE. Johnson won in 2019 not only because of the red wall but because enough of middle Britain also voted for him. Now he, and the tories, can guarantee neither.

    I fear Penny Mordaunt because she would be capable of winning back the centre that Boris Johnson has lost. If on the other hand they were to elect someone who continues this red meat to red wall approach then they will consign themselves to a hefty defeat.

    Appealing solely to the base, in every sense, never works. Every winning politician has reached across.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,416
    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    Lots of pertinent anecdotes in this article. And on topic reflecting the gulf between Johnson’s bluster and the sad reality;

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437
    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    ....as the letters again go in.

    But we need an indication the Cabinet has given up on him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,388
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    Good morning everyone. Another fine bright one!
    Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.
    On topic, which of the current Cabinet would be given a job by any other prime minister? So they won't move against him!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    edited June 26

    Good morning everyone. Another fine bright one!
    Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.

    Funny place to have a party?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,129
    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    ....as the letters again go in.

    But we need an indication the Cabinet has given up on him.
    Yes, this is absolutely what is needed. But who will rid us of this turbulent beast?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,129

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone. Another fine bright one!
    Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.

    Funny place to have a party?
    What, Kent? It was a bit cold but okay otherwise!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    Only if he’s taken up F1.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,416

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    This is the sensible and sane option for the Party. It won't be pretty, especially if Johnson does dig in, but it's the obvious way of resolving it.

    But will sufficient numbers of tory MPs finally bite the bullet?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Wasn't he around last night? I wasn't so, I don't know!

    Anyway he's probably at church.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning everyone. Another fine bright one!
    Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.

    Funny place to have a party?
    What, Kent? It was a bit cold but okay otherwise!
    31 degrees here last three days, and “tropical nights”: temperature at night doesn’t sink below 20 degrees. Luckily we have lots of cooling bathing spots. The water temperature is still cool enough to be refreshing (about 19 degrees yesterday), but unfortunately that too is going to creep up to 25 degrees by August, which is useless for cooling down. But I’ll be back at work then, in the glorious air conditioning.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    Only if he’s taken up F1.
    In his 40s? Always a first for everything. Mind, he did take up tank commanding late in life too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    Only if he’s taken up F1.
    In his 40s? Always a first for everything. Mind, he did take up tank commanding late in life too.
    He’s not in his 40s yet!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Wasn't he around last night? I wasn't so, I don't know!

    Anyway he's probably at church.
    He was on first thing this morning (as in, 1.20 am) according to his profile, but didn’t post.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320
    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,437

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    I'm thinking flanked by Dorries and Rees-Mogg. A losers podium....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    Only if he’s taken up F1.
    In his 40s? Always a first for everything. Mind, he did take up tank commanding late in life too.
    He’s not in his 40s yet!

    No, he'd probably have learned to temper his 'enthusiasm' if he was!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,129
    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    This is the sensible and sane option for the Party. It won't be pretty, especially if Johnson does dig in, but it's the obvious way of resolving it.

    But will sufficient numbers of tory MPs finally bite the bullet?
    It must be remembered the constituency chairs also input into the anger and his comments since Thursday will not have pacified them

    For everyone's sake Johnson, just go
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Preparing for his very own podium speech?
    Only if he’s taken up F1.
    In his 40s? Always a first for everything. Mind, he did take up tank commanding late in life too.
    He’s not in his 40s yet!

    What??
    His posting “voice” is about late 60s. There is someone who has truly wasted their prime years. On the bloody Tory party of all things.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    Wasn't he around last night? I wasn't so, I don't know!

    Anyway he's probably at church.
    He was on first thing this morning (as in, 1.20 am) according to his profile, but didn’t post.

    Out of tune Beatles back catalogue not his sphere of expertise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,129

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Yes of course !!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,912
    IanB2 said:

    But it would be so welcome; cheering in the streets, street parties across the land, bumper sales of champagne and at pubs and bars, happy faces everywhere….just the lift we all need in these difficult times.

    Necessary

    But not sufficient.

    But it is necessary.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320

    Heathener said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    This is the sensible and sane option for the Party. It won't be pretty, especially if Johnson does dig in, but it's the obvious way of resolving it.

    But will sufficient numbers of tory MPs finally bite the bullet?
    It must be remembered the constituency chairs also input into the anger and his comments since Thursday will not have pacified them

    For everyone's sake Johnson, just go
    Ought we to expect members and local office-bearers to drift off to the Liberal Democrats? Or have all the decent Tories (Nabavi, Herdson & Co) already left?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited June 26

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,825
    edited June 26
    Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210
    edited June 26
    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of pertinent anecdotes in this article. And on topic reflecting the gulf between Johnson’s bluster and the sad reality;

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit

    The Times have a similar article

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/counting-the-cost-of-the-brexit-vote-six-years-on-rd2pns2wp

    The Brexit numbers are horrific.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of pertinent anecdotes in this article. And on topic reflecting the gulf between Johnson’s bluster and the sad reality;

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit

    'Sarah Ready of the New Under Ten Fishermen’s Association, whose boats are under 10 metres long, said red tape had been increasing since the Brexit vote, and they now faced extra hurdles selling their catches.

    Brexit was not supposed to be this way. “Some of the requirements have certainly come since Brexit,” she said. “I think Brexit was a very nasty divorce between us and Europe and obviously they’re not going to make it easy for us on any manner of things.” Paperwork relating to health and hygiene, EU import rules and other monitoring requirements had grown dramatically.

    Rees-Mogg said last week he had no intention of monitoring the economic effects of Brexit. “I’m not going to make those sorts of assessments because lots were made before the referendum and they are all bilge,” he said.'
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320
    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.
    Political parties almost never publish internal polling. In fact, I can’t find the last example.

    Sometimes it is leaked. I remember a big leak from Scottish Labour’s internal polling in the early 1990s.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    Jonathan said:

    Doesn’t Boris have a point?

    And he uses it very frequently to stuff young ladies.

    Isn't that what he was saying in his speech?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,825
    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
    Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

    There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

    Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

    Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

    There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

    With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,825
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Doesn’t Boris have a point?

    And he uses it very frequently to stuff young ladies.

    Isn't that what he was saying in his speech?
    Well quite. It’s a weak point, but ironically is has some truth to it. His Tory critics put him where he was, knowing exactly who he was. It’s a bit rich to complain about him now.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,812

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    “The obvious explanation…” would be that one hasn’t been commissioned. You’re supposing the existence of something you have no evidence of. Yes, ideally there should have been at least one, but this is Alex Jones level conspiracy stuff. The polls showing Yes in the lead before the 2014 vote were commissioned and published by the Murdoch press.

    Anyway, bigger gaps do happen. Last year no such polls were commissioned between June and September. Maybe they’re all on holiday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    The two main broadsheet Scottish newspapers have been run into the ground by their owners as well as more general industry issues. So Scottish polling depends in part on London-based newspapers but those will have their attention elsewhere quite a lot of the time - UK as a whole, and so on. I imagine the polling budget has been spent on by-elections of late ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.
    Political parties almost never publish internal polling. In fact, I can’t find the last example.

    Sometimes it is leaked. I remember a big leak from Scottish Labour’s internal polling in the early 1990s.
    I am confident that if they had conducted internal polling showing 'Yes' ahead, they would have leaked it to the media, if only the National.

    I don't think there's anything sinister about it. They're conducted roughly monthly, and published at the end of the month. Which is now upon us. So I would expect some polls in the next week.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.
    I misread thge last word as 'garage' ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,784
    Jonathan said:

    Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

    I prefer to call the party "ConKip"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited June 26
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.
    I misread thge last word as 'garage' ...
    And I misread that as 'Garbage,' which would work better given their current state.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    HYUFD said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today
    Sounds fun. Hope you had a good one.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,320

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,314
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

    More fundamentally from your point of view, when Johnson is finally forced out your party is going to be in a hell of a mess, divided, without any over-arching strategy, no real policy prospectus, and with an electoral coalition impossible to hold together - and that's before you consider all the internal organisational staffing issues and personal conflicts that Johnson's chaos will have left unresolved.

    Every week you hang onto the clown is another week before someone else gets to start on the long, long task of rebuilding from the ruins.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,825

    Jonathan said:

    Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

    I prefer to call the party "ConKip"
    There is something of the GOP about this Tory party. I suspect given the support in the country, we’re never going back to the old conservative, Conservative party even if they ditch Boris. The likes of Dorries and co are the future.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
    But there hasn't been an announcement, has there? There's been a statement of intent to seek permission for there to be an announcement, and it seems unlikely said permission will be forthcoming.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:



    Rees-Mogg said last week he had no intention of monitoring the economic effects of Brexit. “I’m not going to make those sorts of assessments because lots were made before the referendum and they are all bilge,” he said.'

    If there are any tories left who are still kidding themselves that Brexit is going to be not shit then they need to get rid of Johnson ASAFP. His radioactive unpopularity is starting to contaminate Brexit and its hair is falling out. Sooner or later large numbers of voters are going to make a conceptual connection between Johnson being a useless lying arsehole and the thing that he talked them into doing.
    That comment from the fisherperson was particularly interesting because it's from a small boat association - precisely the kind which is disproportionately hit by the extra paperwork (and which was not covered in that voodoo poll claimed as showing that Scottish fisherfolk wanted Brexit but which turned out to be confined to self-selected skippers of the larger trawlers). Add the farmers and you should have some very worried Scottish Tory MPs and MSPs, especially after Mr Ross changed his mind again and lay on his back with his feet in the air and tummy exposed and tail over his nuts, and cringed to Big Dog.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited June 26

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
    indyref2.

    Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    HYUFD said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today
    Hope all went well; have a good flight back, both of you!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    edited June 26
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    Who wants to carry the can for Boris and lead the Tories to defeat? Not a hugely compelling prospect for a new leader. They might consider themselves better off waiting until after the election and being the one to rebuild the party in their image.
    I misread thge last word as 'garage' ...
    And I misread that as 'Garbage,' which would work better given their current state.
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

    More fundamentally from your point of view, when Johnson is finally forced out your party is going to be in a hell of a mess, divided, without any over-arching strategy, no real policy prospectus, and with an electoral coalition impossible to hold together - and that's before you consider all the internal organisational staffing issues and personal conflicts that Johnson's chaos will have left unresolved.

    Every week you hang onto the clown is another week before someone else gets to start on the long, long task of rebuilding from the ruins.
    One had visions of the party in bits all over the workshop floor and DA sucking his teeth as he examined the components ("brake lin corroded, sillbar rusted to **** ...' and chucked them in the skip. Only he wouldn't even let it onto his driveway in the first place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited June 26
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Doesn’t Boris have a point? Everyone knew he was a shit, but Tory MPs nominated him anyway, Tory members confirmed him and he was elected with a big majority by his his blukip style coalition. A section of the Tory party getting buyers remorse three years on is a little weak.

    I prefer to call the party "ConKip"
    There is something of the GOP about this Tory party. I suspect given the support in the country, we’re never going back to the old conservative, Conservative party even if they ditch Boris. The likes of Dorries and co are the future.
    Indeed, Johnson is a big spending, pro choice, social liberal, who under Carrie's influence has taken some action on climate change. The only thing he is really with the party right on is Brexit.

    There are far more hardline Conservatives who could succeed him if the Tories head to opposition.

    After Cameron, May and Johnson the right will be looking to ensure they get a hardliner as leader
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
    indyref2.

    Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
    Does democracy matter?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.

    The 22 Rules won't even consider being changed to allow an earlier vote until they reach a number which suggests a different outcome.

    If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
    And not to forget fury in the constituency committee and chairs

    And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
    I have been at my cousin's wedding in Trieste the last few days, coming back today
    Sounds fun. Hope you had a good one.
    Yes very good thanks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

    More fundamentally from your point of view, when Johnson is finally forced out your party is going to be in a hell of a mess, divided, without any over-arching strategy, no real policy prospectus, and with an electoral coalition impossible to hold together - and that's before you consider all the internal organisational staffing issues and personal conflicts that Johnson's chaos will have left unresolved.

    Every week you hang onto the clown is another week before someone else gets to start on the long, long task of rebuilding from the ruins.
    Yes but that someone would need to be someone with clear electoral appeal relative to Starmer and little evidence of any viable alternative making much difference at present
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,812

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
    When she actually announces the how and when I’m sure there will be. With all due respect that was not an “announcement”. You are a priori supposing (a) someone commissioned a poll and (b) covered it up. You have no evidence for either. Just a conspiratorial frame of mind.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,676
    That boomeranging missile was foreseen by the cartoonist.
    B)


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
    indyref2.

    Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
    Does democracy matter?
    For Scottish domestic policy at Holyrood, for the future of the Union at Westminster
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210
    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,416
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
    Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

    There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

    Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

    Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

    There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

    With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
    That's very badly written for a biographer.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,676

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Someone who does it with matchsticks, obvs.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
    How many 'referendum announcements' have there been to create such a view?

    It sounds like they happen every generation year. ;)

    On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.

    Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.

    For instance:
    https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
    https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,434
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
    indyref2.

    Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
    Does democracy matter?
    For Scottish domestic policy at Holyrood, for the future of the Union at Westminster
    I think you are missing @carnyx point. He wasn't suggesting it doesn't. He was was suggesting your comment implied it didn't, which we know you don't mean.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,416
    Regarding the header, remember that the new leader will face Starmer, not Blair, or even Kinnock (who is a giant by comparison). So unless they're a poor choice (as you say), it'll be enough.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    Compare and contrast
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

    against
    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Does it really matter? Even if the SNP were on 100% for Holyrood if the Conservatives were still in power at Westminster they would still refuse
    indyref2.

    Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
    The first post: Tories are finished. We can stop supporting lies corruption and malfeasance but the damage has been done, we're likely going to lose as people will vote for anyone but us.

    The second post: We are still the Big I Am. Who cares how the non-Tories vote, we just tell them no.

    HY mate - its over. The lesson of last week is that anti-Tory tactical voting can kill you lot for a decade. You personally may support Boris and therefore his criminality, lies and corruption, but increasingly few voters do. The people have had enough and will get shut of you. So, with respect to "does it really matter" - if "it" is your opinion on Scotland, the answer is "no".

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?
    Good spot.

    Fortunately, I think he can only become eligible by winning a Commons by-election, which might be tricky in the current climate.

    Outside the Brexityy bits of Essex, is there anywhere sufficiently safe for that plan to wo...

    Oh. That's how it happens. I don't want to say it in case it comes true.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,471

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
    Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

    There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

    Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

    Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

    There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

    With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
    That's very badly written for a biographer.
    Why, what's wrong with it?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187
    edited June 26

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
    Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

    There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

    Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

    Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

    There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

    With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
    That's very badly written for a biographer.
    Why, what's wrong with it?
    Also - it's often harder, in some ways, to write a short article in a hurry than a book chapter at leisure.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    On topic the thing that bemuses me most is that the damage that seems to have really wound up Tory grandees isn't the byelection losses. Its Johnson's response to them. His "I am sick of people whining on about my position" and "blah blah blah" and "I will go on and on and on" is what has really wound them up. Why?

    Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

    Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,986
    edited June 26

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?
    Good spot.

    Fortunately, I think he can only become eligible by winning a Commons by-election, which might be tricky in the current climate.

    Outside the Brexityy bits of Essex, is there anywhere sufficiently safe for that plan to wo...

    Oh. That's how it happens. I don't want to say it in case it comes true.
    It was mentioned sometime ago that CCHQ didn't want a by-election in the Maldon (etc) seat. Of course that is quite rural.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,471
    edited June 26

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
    How many 'referendum announcements' have there been to create such a view?

    It sounds like they happen every generation year. ;)

    On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.

    Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.

    For instance:
    https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
    https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx

    Or Salisbury Cathedral 332 steps

    https://www.salisburycathedral.org.uk/visit-us/tours-and-demonstrations/

    Not that I have ever done it - no wheelchair lift. Outrageous! Didn't those medieval builders know about 'reasonable adjustments'?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?
    Good spot.

    Fortunately, I think he can only become eligible by winning a Commons by-election, which might be tricky in the current climate.

    Outside the Brexityy bits of Essex, is there anywhere sufficiently safe for that plan to wo...

    Oh. That's how it happens. I don't want to say it in case it comes true.
    You need to tempt someone to resign; and even if this person was planning to knock off at the GE to get the extra payment, that loses up to 2-3 years' HoC salary and freebies. Does the "**** Business" Tendency have sufficient influence left in industry to drum up a nice directorship or two?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    Looking at the following (assuming it is complete), then month-long gaps are not uncommon. It seems there are often gluts of Scottish opinion polls, and long dearths:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
    Absolutely, but a referendum announcement usually prompts a flurry of polls. We have… none. Which looks suspicious.
    How many 'referendum announcements' have there been to create such a view?

    It sounds like they happen every generation year. ;)

    On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.

    Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.

    For instance:
    https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
    https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx

    Or Salisbury Cathedral 332 steps

    https://www.salisburycathedral.org.uk/visit-us/tours-and-demonstrations/

    Not that I have ever done it - no wheelchair lift. Outrageous! Didn't those medieval builders know about 'reasonable adjustments'?
    Annoyingly, I never did Salisbury tower whilst I lived nearby.

    As for wheelchair: I daresay Mr Dancer could give you a boost with his medieval-style trebuchet. ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile he is talking about a third term.

    He's losing it.

    Good morning

    He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
    I’m not sure he has lost it, but only because I’m not convinced he ever had it to start with.
    Parnell, one of his biographers, in the Guardian:

    There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.

    Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.

    Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.

    There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.

    With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
    That's very badly written for a biographer.
    Why, what's wrong with it?
    Also - it's often harder, in some ways, to write a short article in a hurry than a book chapter at leisure.
    Winston Churchill, 'Honourable members, I apologise for giving a long speech this evening. I had not the time to write a short one.'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    edited June 26

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone else consider it very odd that we haven’t had a single Scottish opinion poll since Sturgeon’s 2023 independence referendum announcement?

    The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).

    The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.

    That implies the SNP haven't commissioned their own poll...which seems unlikely.
    Political parties almost never publish internal polling. In fact, I can’t find the last example.

    Sometimes it is leaked. I remember a big leak from Scottish Labour’s internal polling in the early 1990s.
    Living in Sweden it is is understandable you missed this one in 2013.

    Scottish independence poll puts Yes campaign in front

    For the first time since August 2011, the nationalist side takes the lead by 44 to 43 per cent.

    Until recently, every poll on Scottish independence since the beginning of 2012 had shown the No campaign in front, usually by a double-digit margin. But that trend ended today with the publication of a new Panelbase survey putting the Yes camp ahead by 44 to 43 per cent, the first time the nationalist side has led in a poll since August 2011.

    The poll was commissioned by the SNP


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/scottish-independence-poll-puts-yes-campaign-front

    Although curiously the SNP deleted it from their website, obviously they don't like being reminded they blew a Yes lead based on their own polls.

    https://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/sep/year-go-yes-point-ahead

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,525
    edited June 26
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

    BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

    The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

    The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

    Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”


    This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

    I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (personally I’d go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited June 26
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

    BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

    The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

    The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

    Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”


    This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

    I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (Personally is go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.

    I'm not very happy with 'pro choice' either, which is equally loaded.

    Pro and anti abortion, which is if not factual (plenty of people can think abortion isn't great while not wishing to actually ban it) are at least more neutral, would be better.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,434
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories have been in power for 12 years. No party has won a general election in the last 100 years after more than 10 years in power apart from Major's Tories in 1992.

    However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more

    More fundamentally from your point of view, when Johnson is finally forced out your party is going to be in a hell of a mess, divided, without any over-arching strategy, no real policy prospectus, and with an electoral coalition impossible to hold together - and that's before you consider all the internal organisational staffing issues and personal conflicts that Johnson's chaos will have left unresolved.

    Every week you hang onto the clown is another week before someone else gets to start on the long, long task of rebuilding from the ruins.
    Yes but that someone would need to be someone with clear electoral appeal relative to Starmer and little evidence of any viable alternative making much difference at present
    That is true but often you don't know until they become leader. You are not comparing like for like when you compare Boris to any of the alternatives so these polls are meaningless.

    @ian2 is right historically for parties to recover and reform and it is understandable why, but that doesn't have to be so of course.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,812
    Apologies for my outburst
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?
    Would be great!
    He is so clueless and arrogant that he'd smash the union completely. NI have a repeat election coming - he'd probably back the DUP so much as to drive massive resentment even amongst non-DUP unionists. He'd start a trade war with the EU and then start talking about why we should leave the WTO as well.
    He'd drive the economy into the pit so hard that even home counties Tories were screaming.

    Marvellous. If you want the end of the Conservative Party and likely the union.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236

    On topic the thing that bemuses me most is that the damage that seems to have really wound up Tory grandees isn't the byelection losses. Its Johnson's response to them. His "I am sick of people whining on about my position" and "blah blah blah" and "I will go on and on and on" is what has really wound them up. Why?

    Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

    Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.

    I am just waiting to see how the Tories try to use the control of the Electoral Commission they gave themselves to try to make tactical voting much more difficult. Whatever they choose to do, Braverman will give legal cover for.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

    BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

    The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

    The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

    Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”


    This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

    I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (personally I’d go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.

    Interesting to hear on the BBC the qualification about states banning abortion except where there is risk to the mother. This nuance seemed to be missing in a lot of the comments previously.
    I don’t agree with the decision, but it suggests that changes will be a death sentence for women with ectopic pregnancies is a bit overblown.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,236
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?

    Lord Frost gives third-rate a bad name.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,195

    Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

    That was always true. And always obvious.

    What worries Tory MPs is that they thought the public loved him anyway.

    That is no longer true
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,187

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jun/25/bbc-amol-rajan-phrase-pro-life-roe-v-wade-interview

    BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview

    The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.

    The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.

    Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”


    This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?

    I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (personally I’d go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.

    Interesting to hear on the BBC the qualification about states banning abortion except where there is risk to the mother. This nuance seemed to be missing in a lot of the comments previously.
    I don’t agree with the decision, but it suggests that changes will be a death sentence for women with ectopic pregnancies is a bit overblown.
    Trouble with that is there is always a risk to the mother in childbirth, and after. That could be the next thing to go, if it isn't already in some states.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431

    On topic the thing that bemuses me most is that the damage that seems to have really wound up Tory grandees isn't the byelection losses. Its Johnson's response to them. His "I am sick of people whining on about my position" and "blah blah blah" and "I will go on and on and on" is what has really wound them up. Why?

    Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.

    Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.

    I am just waiting to see how the Tories try to use the control of the Electoral Commission they gave themselves to try to make tactical voting much more difficult. Whatever they choose to do, Braverman will give legal cover for.

    Hard to see what they could do though? If a party stands down in a seat, is that illegal? If two parties target different seats, is that illegal? Of course not - parties always choose which seats to target for best chances.
    One caution for the Lib Dem’s though. They were shafted by Blair, who courted them assiduously in 1997, then had no use for them after the landslide. I know they like to think they are closer in politics than the Tories, but I’m not sure that’s true.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,268

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Of course Boris needs to go, and yesterday wouldn't be soon enough.

    However, there are problems.

    First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.

    Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?

    Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.

    A rerun of the late 50s - Churchill, Eden and Macmillan.
    So who in the Conservative Party wants to be Alec Douglas-Home?
    Frightening thought but - Lord Frost?

    Lord Frost gives third-rate a bad name.

    I cant see him garnering more than about a dozen swivel-eyed Tory MPs as backers....
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