Categories
Options
Why replacing Boris Johnson will not be enough – politicalbetting.com
Why replacing Boris Johnson will not be enough – politicalbetting.com
… Even among Conservative voters, 46% say the Government has the wrong leader, including 25% who say it has both the wrong leader and ideas https://t.co/FbkX5AKftG pic.twitter.com/0bGZDnW6Bf
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You are quite right TSE. Johnson won in 2019 not only because of the red wall but because enough of middle Britain also voted for him. Now he, and the tories, can guarantee neither.
I fear Penny Mordaunt because she would be capable of winning back the centre that Boris Johnson has lost. If on the other hand they were to elect someone who continues this red meat to red wall approach then they will consign themselves to a hefty defeat.
Appealing solely to the base, in every sense, never works. Every winning politician has reached across.
He's losing it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit
But we need an indication the Cabinet has given up on him.
Mr. Mark, the letters only matter if the rules change, though. Or the PM goes first.
Came back from a family party through the Dartford Tunnel last night; yes the yardage to the escape routes is bizarre, as per JRM.
On topic, which of the current Cabinet would be given a job by any other prime minister? So they won't move against him!
If they reach those levels, Brady will tell the PM the game is up. He will give Boris 48 hours to get his affairs in order, as a courtesy. But if he doesn't see the podium out in Downing Street within those 48 hours, the 22 will meet to arrange a second vote - on the back of overwhelming disquiet amongst the Parliamentary Party. Which will be cited as the reason.
He has lost it 100% and needs removing now
And where is @HYUFD - I really hope he is OK
But will sufficient numbers of tory MPs finally bite the bullet?
Anyway he's probably at church.
The last Holyrood poll was 18-23 May (S47 L23 C18) and the last Westminster poll was 23-29 May (S44 L23 C19).
The obvious explanation is that the findings are too worrying for the Unionist media to publish.
For everyone's sake Johnson, just go
His posting “voice” is about late 60s. There is someone who has truly wasted their prime years. On the bloody Tory party of all things.
But not sufficient.
But it is necessary.
However, there are problems.
First, there's nobody out there who seems to want the job. Not enough to fight Big Dog for it, anyway. To be fair, it looks like a hospital pass, but there's a depressing lack of courage and love of party and country out there.
Next, this would be the third parliament in a row where an elected Conservative PM hasn't made it to the next GE. One is sometimes necessary, two begins to look like carelessness... What is three?
Maybe this government has just run out of life, and we have 30 months of limbo to look forward to. In which case, heaven help us, one and all.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/counting-the-cost-of-the-brexit-vote-six-years-on-rd2pns2wp
The Brexit numbers are horrific.
Brexit was not supposed to be this way. “Some of the requirements have certainly come since Brexit,” she said. “I think Brexit was a very nasty divorce between us and Europe and obviously they’re not going to make it easy for us on any manner of things.” Paperwork relating to health and hygiene, EU import rules and other monitoring requirements had grown dramatically.
Rees-Mogg said last week he had no intention of monitoring the economic effects of Brexit. “I’m not going to make those sorts of assessments because lots were made before the referendum and they are all bilge,” he said.'
Sometimes it is leaked. I remember a big leak from Scottish Labour’s internal polling in the early 1990s.
Isn't that what he was saying in his speech?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
There have always been flashes of instability – the frothing temper, the bizarre shrieking when under pressure – but as a narcissist these traits only get worse when he is cornered as he is now. I remember friends of Johnson telling me just before he became prime minister that there was concern in the family that he was simply not sufficiently mentally stable to cope with the relentless pressures and problems of running a country.
Decades of indulgence, exceptionalism, and lack of consequence programmed him to behave in a selfish and reckless way. Imagine how he feels now that the scandals keep coming in, fully knowing there are many more, potentially even worse, to come out.
Now the economy is tanking, the health service is in crisis, and the country gripped by strikes and the slogans are falling flat. He has no clue what to do next. He never gave much thought to being prime minister (only the becoming of PM) and virtually none at all to the afterwards except the idea of getting very rich.
There have been virtually no boundaries imposed on Johnsonian conduct (by employers, party, or cabinet) but just as with children – and there is truly something of the toddler about Johnson – that does not necessarily lead to happiness. There is a hollowness in Johnson that blocks out those things in life that normally buoy us through trouble – the love of family or friends or place.
With reality at the age of 58 finally closing in on him, his one old trick of joking around will no longer do. As even people who voted for him with delight and pride now try to deny it, he is no doubt desperately trying to find another gamble with an eye-catching announcement that might buy him more time. Otherwise, he knows too well that there is only one button left in his toybox, the one marked self-destruct. He would rather not go out on a whimper but a very big bang.
Anyway, bigger gaps do happen. Last year no such polls were commissioned between June and September. Maybe they’re all on holiday.
I don't think there's anything sinister about it. They're conducted roughly monthly, and published at the end of the month. Which is now upon us. So I would expect some polls in the next week.
However even then that was partly about keeping Kinnock out and Starmer is less feared by middle England than Kinnock was. So yes replacing Johnson would not be enough. It would be more about trying to limit the damage if Labour got a consistent poll lead of say 10% or more
Every week you hang onto the clown is another week before someone else gets to start on the long, long task of rebuilding from the ruins.
indyref2.
Only if the next general election leads to a hung parliament and the Conservatives winning most seats and Starmer needing SNP support to become PM will the UK government grant an official indyref2
There are far more hardline Conservatives who could succeed him if the Tories head to opposition.
After Cameron, May and Johnson the right will be looking to ensure they get a hardliner as leader
It sounds like they happen every generation year.
On another point, I know you said you did not like the idea, but if you visit cathedrals, really do try to get a tower tour. Yes, they're guided (would have to be, given the situation), but visiting a cathedral without doing one feels a little like visiting someone for dinner and only going into the garden. You get closer to the workmanship and the history of the place; its soul. In some, you also get to see artwork that are tens of metres up in the ceiling very close-up.
Not for anyone with vertigo though, or for those who cannot manage stairs.
For instance:
https://www.elycathedral.org/events/octagon-tower-tours
https://www.peterborough-cathedral.org.uk/home/visiting/book-a-cathedral-tour/tower-tours.aspx
The second post: We are still the Big I Am. Who cares how the non-Tories vote, we just tell them no.
HY mate - its over. The lesson of last week is that anti-Tory tactical voting can kill you lot for a decade. You personally may support Boris and therefore his criminality, lies and corruption, but increasingly few voters do. The people have had enough and will get shut of you. So, with respect to "does it really matter" - if "it" is your opinion on Scotland, the answer is "no".
Fortunately, I think he can only become eligible by winning a Commons by-election, which might be tricky in the current climate.
Outside the Brexityy bits of Essex, is there anywhere sufficiently safe for that plan to wo...
Oh. That's how it happens. I don't want to say it in case it comes true.
Because it demonstrates that he has no clue what people care about. Probably because the only person he truly cares about is himself. Not his colleagues. Not his discarded wives mistresses and children. Not the country or the people. Just himself.
Happily he has fiilled his cabinet with liars and charlatans like Patel and Dorries and Braverman who also only care about themselves. But thats not enough any more. Both byelection and council election results show that the anti-Tory tactical vote is getting stronger and better organised. That is what scares them.
Or Salisbury Cathedral 332 steps
https://www.salisburycathedral.org.uk/visit-us/tours-and-demonstrations/
Not that I have ever done it - no wheelchair lift. Outrageous! Didn't those medieval builders know about 'reasonable adjustments'?
As for wheelchair: I daresay Mr Dancer could give you a boost with his medieval-style trebuchet.
Scottish independence poll puts Yes campaign in front
For the first time since August 2011, the nationalist side takes the lead by 44 to 43 per cent.
Until recently, every poll on Scottish independence since the beginning of 2012 had shown the No campaign in front, usually by a double-digit margin. But that trend ended today with the publication of a new Panelbase survey putting the Yes camp ahead by 44 to 43 per cent, the first time the nationalist side has led in a poll since August 2011.
The poll was commissioned by the SNP
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/09/scottish-independence-poll-puts-yes-campaign-front
Although curiously the SNP deleted it from their website, obviously they don't like being reminded they blew a Yes lead based on their own polls.
https://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/sep/year-go-yes-point-ahead
BBC’s Amol Rajan criticised for using phrase ‘pro-life’ in Roe v Wade interview
The term, which is considered partisan, was used twice by Amol Rajan during Saturday morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, in segments about the landmark ruling ending Americans’ constitutional right to abortion.
The BBC News style guide advises journalists to “use anti-abortion rather than pro-life, except where it is part of the title of a group’s name”.
Hannah Barham-Brown, deputy leader of the Women’s Equality party, said: “Anti-choice campaigners have long tried to hide behind the facade of being ‘pro-life’ when the reality is that they are anything but – they are really trying to restrict women’s freedoms.”
This is interesting. I can only speak for myself, but my views on this subject are not influenced by wanting to restrict women’s freedoms. I wonder if deep down the words pro life are quite difficult for some on the pro choice side of the debate?
I’m a pragmatist, but if I’m honest, once there’s a heartbeat, I think abortion is murder. But I think it’s justified murder to a point (personally I’d go for 12 weeks rather than 24 weeks). Perhaps some on the pro choice side of the debate wouldn’t like to hear that, but this is a very difficult issue, and we should be honest about what abortion is.
Pro and anti abortion, which is if not factual (plenty of people can think abortion isn't great while not wishing to actually ban it) are at least more neutral, would be better.
@ian2 is right historically for parties to recover and reform and it is understandable why, but that doesn't have to be so of course.
He is so clueless and arrogant that he'd smash the union completely. NI have a repeat election coming - he'd probably back the DUP so much as to drive massive resentment even amongst non-DUP unionists. He'd start a trade war with the EU and then start talking about why we should leave the WTO as well.
He'd drive the economy into the pit so hard that even home counties Tories were screaming.
Marvellous. If you want the end of the Conservative Party and likely the union.
I don’t agree with the decision, but it suggests that changes will be a death sentence for women with ectopic pregnancies is a bit overblown.
What worries Tory MPs is that they thought the public loved him anyway.
That is no longer true
One caution for the Lib Dem’s though. They were shafted by Blair, who courted them assiduously in 1997, then had no use for them after the landslide. I know they like to think they are closer in politics than the Tories, but I’m not sure that’s true.