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SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

How the Betfair YES price has moved over past month
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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    First?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    FPT @Hugh

    I kinda hope Gordon stands for FM at the next election!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Latest is 4.5. Approaching £9 million matched:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.110033387&status=SUCCESS
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Very odd, the money is still piling in on a NO win? - They can’t all be privy to private polling?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    You still wake up sometimes, don't you, Malcolm? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs....And you think if you save poor Scawtlund, you could make them stop, don't you? You think if Scawtlund voots Aye, you won't wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Llama, sorry to hear of the Brute's passing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    You still wake up sometimes, don't you, Malcolm? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs....And you think if you save poor Scawtlund, you could make them stop, don't you? You think if Scawtlund voots Aye, you won't wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs.

    YAWN
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    malcolmg said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.

    You're a bit touchy because you're a big jessie. Try not to blub in public when you lose.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    SimonStClare said:

    Very odd, the money is still piling in on a NO win? - They can’t all be privy to private polling?

    sheeple
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    malcolmg said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.

    I actually thought I had been quite polite and friendly to you, yet you still felt free to insult me when I posted something you disagreed with.

    Ho hum.....
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    malcolmg said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    You still wake up sometimes, don't you, Malcolm? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs....And you think if you save poor Scawtlund, you could make them stop, don't you? You think if Scawtlund voots Aye, you won't wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs.

    YAWN
    Brave Malcolm. You will let me know when those lambs stop screaming, won't you?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @HL

    Sorry to hear of your poor moggie. Sounds like nine lives are not enough.

    FPT:
    HurstLlama said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    "If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"

    Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.

    How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.

    After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
    Doc, the Economic growth figures are the most meaningless of many that the Government use as props. How much more wealthy is your average patient with all this growf?

    Anyway, the question I put forward was not "What have the Romans done for us?" but "Why should we vote for them again?"
    We have collectively been living beyond our means for years. Growth has benefited my patch of middle England, mostly via increased employment.

    Individual incomes will lag until the deficit has shrunk, until then the earnings go to repay the moneylenders. Short of a Salmond like default there is no way around that.

    I am LD, not Tory, but think that the coalition has done an excellent job in difficult circumstances. Sadly my party and the Tories are likely to suffer next year, but will in time be vindicated as one of the best governments of recent times.

    In the meantime: no good deed goes unpunished!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    27% return in 3 days - won't be that for long ...
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    George Galloway told that he's " going to face a bullet " from Yes supporter;
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-george-galloway-threatened-with-facing-a-bullet-by-heckler-at-prounion-event-9735800.html
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Blimey, Malcolm's all in that film:

    Hannibal Lecter: Then something woke you, didn't it? Was it a dream? What was it?
    Clarice Starling: I heard a strange noise.
    Hannibal Lecter: What was it?
    Clarice Starling: It was... screaming. Some kind of screaming, like a child's voice.
    Hannibal Lecter: What did you do?
    Clarice Starling: I went downstairs, outside. I crept up into the barn. I was so scared to look inside, but I had to.
    Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see?
    Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.
    Hannibal Lecter: They were slaughtering the spring lambs?
    Clarice Starling: And they were screaming.
    Hannibal Lecter: And you ran away?
    Clarice Starling: No. First I tried to free them. I... I opened the gate to their pen, but they wouldn't run. They just stood there, confused. They wouldn't run.

    Malky: for the avoidance of doubt, in that extract, I am Hannibal Lecter; you are Clarice; and the lambs are the No majority on Thursday.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    malcolmg said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.

    You're a bit touchy because you're a big jessie. Try not to blub in public when you lose.
    YAWN YAWN
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Blimey, Malcolm's all in that film:

    Hannibal Lecter: Then something woke you, didn't it? Was it a dream? What was it?
    Clarice Starling: I heard a strange noise.
    Hannibal Lecter: What was it?
    Clarice Starling: It was... screaming. Some kind of screaming, like a child's voice.
    Hannibal Lecter: What did you do?
    Clarice Starling: I went downstairs, outside. I crept up into the barn. I was so scared to look inside, but I had to.
    Hannibal Lecter: And what did you see, Clarice? What did you see?
    Clarice Starling: Lambs. The lambs were screaming.
    Hannibal Lecter: They were slaughtering the spring lambs?
    Clarice Starling: And they were screaming.
    Hannibal Lecter: And you ran away?
    Clarice Starling: No. First I tried to free them. I... I opened the gate to their pen, but they wouldn't run. They just stood there, confused. They wouldn't run.

    Malky: for the avoidance of doubt, in that extract, I am Hannibal Lecter; you are Clarice; and the lambs are the No majority on Thursday.

    YAWN YAWN YAWN
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)

    Clackmannanshire might be worth a small bet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    You still wake up sometimes, don't you, Malcolm? You wake up in the dark and hear the screaming of the lambs....And you think if you save poor Scawtlund, you could make them stop, don't you? You think if Scawtlund voots Aye, you won't wake up in the dark ever again to that awful screaming of the lambs.

    YAWN
    Brave Malcolm. You will let me know when those lambs stop screaming, won't you?
    YAWN YAWN YAWN YAWN
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
    Yes.

    Turnout of 85% = guaranteed Scottish victory

    Turnout of 75% = guaranteed David Cameron victory

    Turnout of 80% = all-nighter Thurs-Fri
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.

    I actually thought I had been quite polite and friendly to you, yet you still felt free to insult me when I posted something you disagreed with.

    Ho hum.....
    If so Rob then peace, maybe you were too subtle for me
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.

    Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AndyJS said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)

    Clackmannanshire might be worth a small bet.
    At 100/1 (Betfair, PP) Shetland might be worth a small bet.

    Great is the Truth and it will Prevail

    http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/scottish-independence-debate/9293-shetland-news-says-yes-to-independence
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Eastwinger said:

    The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.

    Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?

    Any clouds in the sky
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    » show previous quotes
    It was hardly an insult, Malcolm.

    Bit touchy tonite?


    Peter , If not then accepted , if you read on here you will see I get it constantly day in and day out so no surprise I am a bit sharp. However peace between us and resume previous good relationship. I only reciprocate what I receive and as you say perhaps a bit touchy.

    I actually thought I had been quite polite and friendly to you, yet you still felt free to insult me when I posted something you disagreed with.

    Ho hum.....
    If so Rob then peace, maybe you were too subtle for me
    One day you'll learn to like us PB Tory Unionists.... (What can I say, I'm an optimist!)
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Guidance from The Silence of the Lambs should malcolm ever show for PB drinkies:

    Do not touch the glass. Do not approach the glass. You pass him nothing but soft paper - no pencils or pens. No staples or paperclips in his paper. Use the sliding food carrier, no exceptions. If he attempts to pass you anything, do not accept it. Do you understand me?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    MalcolmG: I have no dog in this fight. I rather think that the vote will be yes - or at least not surprised if it is - and am now rather hoping that it will be.

    A union which can only be kept together with threats and pleading is not really worth having, IMO.

    So good luck to you on Thursday.

    Whatever the outcome I hope that Scots come together after it and that Scotland and the rest of the UK will continue to remain friends.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    edited September 2014
    "Surprisingly betting has not been as heavy as on previous days. Everybody is waiting for new polls."

    While true, the Betfair Scottish referendum 'most votes' (i.e. result) market has just topped £9m matched, which is a whopper by political betting standards.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    RobD said:

    FPT @Hugh

    I kinda hope Gordon stands for FM at the next election!

    And every Labour PMSP has "Gordon Brown for First Minister" under their name on the Ballot Paper........Oooops, sorry forgot Salmond already has pulled that trick, and it will not be allowed again.

    Apart from which, if there is a No Vote, Salmond will be replaced by Sturgeon within 3 days.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    French PM Manuel Valls wins confidence vote 269 to 244

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29218624
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,480
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    George Galloway told that he's " going to face a bullet " from Yes supporter;
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-george-galloway-threatened-with-facing-a-bullet-by-heckler-at-prounion-event-9735800.html

    I don't doubt he thought he heard it, but is there any independent confirmation of what was said in such a probably noisy environment? And either he or the journo failed to point out that the London attack was by a person shouting about the Holocaust, not indyref.

    But here he is again: must be very useful having a party of your own so you can blame everyone else (though he's put in a dam' sight more work than a lot of SLAB and LDs, it must be said):

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/scottish-independence-the-political-class-is-doing-what-hitler-couldnt--destroying-britain-9730260.html
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
    Yes.

    Turnout of 85% = guaranteed Scottish victory

    Turnout of 75% = guaranteed David Cameron victory

    Turnout of 80% = all-nighter Thurs-Fri
    Turnout of 102% = the new deity, Eck will arise and lead Scotland into a dream future of 1000 years
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Guidance from The Silence of the Lambs should malcolm ever show for PB drinkies:

    Do not touch the glass. Do not approach the glass. You pass him nothing but soft paper - no pencils or pens. No staples or paperclips in his paper. Use the sliding food carrier, no exceptions. If he attempts to pass you anything, do not accept it. Do you understand me?

    YAWN YAWN YAWN YAWN YAWN
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/odd/jokers-set-up-fake-scotland-england-border-control-1-3543340
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758

    Some of the behaviour of YES supporters has been disgraceful. They are turning up to every event held by a politician suppoting the NO campaign to try to shout them down. It is starting to get pretty nasty.

    If the YES side lose the referendum I can see there being violent scenes around Scotland. If this is the case, Alex Salmond will be responsible for this.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Cyclefree said:

    MalcolmG: I have no dog in this fight. I rather think that the vote will be yes - or at least not surprised if it is - and am now rather hoping that it will be.

    A union which can only be kept together with threats and pleading is not really worth having, IMO.

    So good luck to you on Thursday.

    Whatever the outcome I hope that Scots come together after it and that Scotland and the rest of the UK will continue to remain friends.

    Cyclefree , Thank you , nice to see a civil poster for a change. It has indeed been a sobering campaign and fought very dirty by Westminster, it will be a phyric victory for them if it is NO. Not been an edifying sight this last week.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
    Yes.

    Turnout of 85% = guaranteed Scottish victory

    Turnout of 75% = guaranteed David Cameron victory

    Turnout of 80% = all-nighter Thurs-Fri
    Turnout of 102% = the new deity, Eck will arise and lead Scotland into a dream future of 1000 years
    Dear Dear what a sad sack
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,480
    http://imgur.com/vsBGsZC

    Fascinating bit of ancient history ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?

    Man Utd winning league , Man City caught them last game
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Deleted - double post
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?

    It was when everyone thought Gordon was toast.

    I made a mint, arbing against Betfair.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    edited September 2014
    Mr. Dickson, wasn't that the first Lisbon Treaty/EU Constitution referendum vote in Ireland?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    hucks67 said:


    Some of the behaviour of YES supporters has been disgraceful. They are turning up to every event held by a politician suppoting the NO campaign to try to shout them down. It is starting to get pretty nasty.

    If the YES side lose the referendum I can see there being violent scenes around Scotland. If this is the case, Alex Salmond will be responsible for this.

    Oh the poor politicians, is everybody supposed to turn up and stand in silence. What kind of idiot are you.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    malcolmg said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.

    A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'

    And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html

    Mid Beds bigot prints more garbage. Do you not have a life you sad sack pathetic Little Englander.
    Somewhere out there is a tree, tirelessly producing oxygen so you can breathe. I think you owe it an apology.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    malcolmg said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.

    No rally and told to go home."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html

    Mid Beds bigot prints more garbage. Do you not have a life you sad sack pathetic Little Englander.
    Somewhere out there is a tree, tirelessly producing oxygen so you can breathe. I think you owe it an apology.
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    malcolmg said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.

    A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'

    And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html

    Mid Beds bigot prints more garbage. Do you not have a life you sad sack pathetic Little Englander.
    Somewhere out there is a tree, tirelessly producing oxygen so you can breathe. I think you owe it an apology.
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    malcolmg said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    "No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.

    No rally and told to go home."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html

    Mid Beds bigot prints more garbage. Do you not have a life you sad sack pathetic Little Englander.
    Somewhere out there is a tree, tirelessly producing oxygen so you can breathe. I think you owe it an apology.
    You really are a sad soul , I pity you your miserable existence. Get help.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Thanks Pong and Morris Dancer.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    hucks67 said:


    Some of the behaviour of YES supporters has been disgraceful. They are turning up to every event held by a politician suppoting the NO campaign to try to shout them down. It is starting to get pretty nasty.

    If the YES side lose the referendum I can see there being violent scenes around Scotland. If this is the case, Alex Salmond will be responsible for this.

    Oh the poor politicians, is everybody supposed to turn up and stand in silence.
    Only in Salmond world.

    Journalists who dare to question Eck will 'RUE THE DAY!'

  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Cyclefree said:

    MalcolmG: I have no dog in this fight. I rather think that the vote will be yes - or at least not surprised if it is - and am now rather hoping that it will be.

    A union which can only be kept together with threats and pleading is not really worth having, IMO.

    So good luck to you on Thursday.

    Whatever the outcome I hope that Scots come together after it and that Scotland and the rest of the UK will continue to remain friends.

    A divorce rarely ends with both sides remaining friends.
    But I endorse your sentiments.
    Whatever the result there will be a generation of dissatisfaction in Scotland,and if a yes plunges Ruk and Scotland into recession again there will be even more dissatisfaction.
    I hope for a no,but will plan my affairs accordingly.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,154
    edited September 2014
    Was told tonight that the postal turnout (returns of postal votes issued) is 95% which seems incredibly high. Make of it what you will.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pong said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?

    It was when everyone thought Gordon was toast.

    I made a mint, arbing against Betfair.
    Betfred once paid out early on Man Utd and got it wrong.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    malcolmg said:

    hucks67 said:


    Some of the behaviour of YES supporters has been disgraceful. They are turning up to every event held by a politician suppoting the NO campaign to try to shout them down. It is starting to get pretty nasty.

    If the YES side lose the referendum I can see there being violent scenes around Scotland. If this is the case, Alex Salmond will be responsible for this.

    Oh the poor politicians, is everybody supposed to turn up and stand in silence. What kind of idiot are you.
    As I told you the other day Malcolm, the posts you make to this site provide good reason to vote NO.

    The YES side should concentrate on their own campaign and allow the democratic process to take place without breaking the law.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    Edin_Rokz said:

    RobD said:

    FPT @Hugh

    I kinda hope Gordon stands for FM at the next election!

    And every Labour PMSP has "Gordon Brown for First Minister" under their name on the Ballot Paper........Oooops, sorry forgot Salmond already has pulled that trick, and it will not be allowed again.

    Apart from which, if there is a No Vote, Salmond will be replaced by Sturgeon within 3 days.
    Sturgeon is OK but not in Salmond's league, or Brown's. Wouldn't they have an open contest?
    Eastwinger said:

    The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.

    Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?

    Betfair drifting without any particular movement, so perhaps a coincidence, though obviously much more money to be earned on currency speculation.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    BETTING POST:

    If you are a NO backer, get over to SKYBET:

    No vote % , 50.01% - 55.00% 5/4

    ABOVE EVS!!!!

    Just compare to the best NO price of 2/7 !
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Can the passive-aggressives go suck on an ice cube for a bit?

    It's getting very tiresome...
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    So, you're an MI5 bloke?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    edited September 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
    Yes.

    Turnout of 85% = guaranteed Scottish victory

    Turnout of 75% = guaranteed David Cameron victory

    Turnout of 80% = all-nighter Thurs-Fri
    Turnout of 102% = the new deity, Eck will arise and lead Scotland into a dream future of 1000 years
    Dear Dear what a sad sack
    It's no use malc, it's over.

    The Sunday Post has spoken and even now Oor Wullie and the Broons are going off to kick the shit out of wee Eck and Soapy Souter.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    "Labour leader Ed Miliband was today hounded out of an Edinburgh shopping centre as a campaign walkabout became overrun by protesters.

    He was repeatedly branded a 'f***ing liar' by Yes campaigners who drowned out his supporters with cries of 'bow down to your imperial master.

    Mr Miliband pleaded for a 'civilised' debate with two days of campaigning left before the referendum, before being rushed out of the door by his aides, who were left 'visibly shaken' by the incident.

    At one point he became trapped outside a hairdressers called 'Supercuts', leading opponents to chant: 'Vote No for Supercuts, vote No for permanent austerity"


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    Welcome from an occasional poster,are you Scottish,or have some local information.

  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    edited September 2014
    "So, you're an MI5 bloke?"

    You're gonna have to explain that one to me?!
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    malcolmg said:

    You really are a sad soul , I pity you your miserable existence. Get help.

    What I don't really understand is why my (admittedly rather colourful earlier riposte), half an hour or so ago, got deleted in minutes by the mods while your multiple insults (eg "Mid Beds bigot") churned out by the dozen every hour for days on end get a free pass.

    I realise that you are are on a wind up and probably are not in Scotland and able to even vote on this, but there are limits to satire. Maybe MI5 have asked OGH to go easy on you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,154
    edited September 2014
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    So many inaccuracies in one post.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Paddy Power's turnout market point to a Yes victory:

    More than 82% 4/7
    82% or under 5/4


    Can you explain your logic, Stuart? Presumably you think the higher the turnout the greater the likelihood of Yes?
    Yes.

    Turnout of 85% = guaranteed Scottish victory

    Turnout of 75% = guaranteed David Cameron victory

    Turnout of 80% = all-nighter Thurs-Fri
    Turnout of 102% = the new deity, Eck will arise and lead Scotland into a dream future of 1000 years
    Dear Dear what a sad sack

    The Sunday Post has spoken and even now Oor Wullie and the Broons are going off to kick the shit out of wee Eck and Soapy Souter.
    On the subject matter on what turnout means to how the vote will go, I'm still very unconvinced however;

    The reference too Oor Wullie and the Broons was hilarious, I have to say.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,735
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Was told tonight that the postal turnout (returns of postal votes issued) is 95% which seems incredibly high. Make of it what you will.

    Good for No, but there is hope yet for Yes on polling day. I think the Yes GOTV campaign will bbe better, but Salmond going about talking of a No collapse is completely idiotic as it will galvanise the No side and make Yes voters complacent.
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    Ed Miliband was today called a "f@cking liar" and a "traitor". After visiting his brother he then went to Edinburgh.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    NickPalmer said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    RobD said:

    FPT @Hugh

    I kinda hope Gordon stands for FM at the next election!

    And every Labour PMSP has "Gordon Brown for First Minister" under their name on the Ballot Paper........Oooops, sorry forgot Salmond already has pulled that trick, and it will not be allowed again.

    Apart from which, if there is a No Vote, Salmond will be replaced by Sturgeon within 3 days.
    Sturgeon is OK but not in Salmond's league, or Brown's. Wouldn't they have an open contest?
    Eastwinger said:

    The £ is trading well up in the last couple of hours.

    Coincidence? or poll leak of good news for No?

    Betfair drifting without any particular movement, so perhaps a coincidence, though obviously much more money to be earned on currency speculation.

    I think you'll find Scottish Labour have a leader at Holyrood. Even though she is invisibe.

  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    A fellow lurker. Named, Ally. Welcome.

    MI5 conspiracy indeed..

    Or should that be, Tipping Point?!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Welcome to (posting on) pb.com, Mr. Rob.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    AndyJS said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)

    Clackmannanshire might be worth a small bet.
    Possibly, as i saw my first No Thanks poster in a Window in Dundee today.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BBC One Show giving a completely biased explanation of WW1. They claim Serbia remained "defiant" to Austria-Hungary, when, of course, the country gave in to virtually all of Vienna's demands. They then act like Germany only got involved after Russia declared war on Austria-Hungary. Actually Germany encouraged Austria-Hungary to be aggressive in the first place, with the famous "blank cheque" because they wanted war with Russia.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    YossariansChild said:

    Ed Miliband was today called a "f@cking liar" and a "traitor". After visiting his brother he then went to Edinburgh.

    Like

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Theuniondivvie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    So many inaccuracies in one post.
    Translated from SNPeak, A hit, a very palpable hit.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    I genuinely fear for the mental health of some of the posters on here. The NHS better be in safe hands whoever wins as it's going to be needed, for some more than others.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    YossariansChild said:

    Ed Miliband was today called a "f@cking liar" and a "traitor". After visiting his brother he then went to Edinburgh.

    LOL, very good
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,222
    edited September 2014
    Yes supporter on Twitter expresses horror at Old No backers being pushed and spat at in Edinburgh

    twitter.com/neondamsel/status/511892168135675908
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    AndyJS said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Council area with highest Yes vote:

    Dundee 4/6 (Hills, Lad)
    Clackmannanshire 5/1 (various)
    Glasgow 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Na h-Eileanan Siar 8/1 (Hills, Lad)
    Angus 12/1 (Betfair, Lad)
    Moray 16/1 (various)

    Clackmannanshire might be worth a small bet.
    Possibly, as i saw my first No Thanks poster in a Window in Dundee today.

    :)

    The clueless wonders around here are in for a shock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MalcolmG: I have no dog in this fight. I rather think that the vote will be yes - or at least not surprised if it is - and am now rather hoping that it will be.

    A union which can only be kept together with threats and pleading is not really worth having, IMO.

    So good luck to you on Thursday.

    Whatever the outcome I hope that Scots come together after it and that Scotland and the rest of the UK will continue to remain friends.

    Cyclefree , Thank you , nice to see a civil poster for a change. It has indeed been a sobering campaign and fought very dirty by Westminster, it will be a phyric victory for them if it is NO. Not been an edifying sight this last week.
    Once again I see only fought dirty by one side apparently, despite insults flying back and forth thick and fast on this very page in what is a comparatively tame microcosm of the campaign, that would seem to indicate there is bad blood and claims all over the place.

    I will be very sad to see Yes win, as emotion is not easily tempered by the unfortunate fact that the Union has seemingly failed to make itself attractive to many people for far too long, on either side of the border, and I also find the idea that if you have to fight for something it is not worth having (as pleading and threats would be part of any fight), not least because people can choose if they wish to work to make things better, but I do hope those who do the proper (that is, not the publicity game bit) negotiations are able to keep things in perspectives. Yes are right that a strong Scotland makes for a strong rUK, and despite the temptation to be bitter I am sure a reasonable accommodation will be reached, and there will not be things like border controls or refusal to ever lend assistance if needed, that sort of thing. It doesn't mean Yes are likely to get everything they want, as it may be reasonable to not agree on some things, but while are totally wrong to even imply things will be the same between us or better, they are not going to be unpleasant, that would be stupid.

    I'd love to see how many people get past the first paragraph above, but I have to go out for a couple of hours, so I'll just imagine it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,291
    jayfdee said:

    A divorce rarely ends with both sides remaining friends.
    But I endorse your sentiments.
    Whatever the result there will be a generation of dissatisfaction in Scotland,and if a yes plunges Ruk and Scotland into recession again there will be even more dissatisfaction.
    I hope for a no,but will plan my affairs accordingly.

    The first thing that needs to happen on Friday, whatever the result, is for both sides (and that includes their supporters in the blogosphere) to show some generosity and understanding toward their opponents.

    It would be good to see Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Farage and Salmond sharing a platform in Edinburgh

    Insults, jibes and yes, even a bit of physicality have been the warp and weft of political campaigns for two centuries but after Friday we all need to take account of the result and move on (subject to those on here who will claim they got it right all along even those who've predicted both a YES and a NO win at various times).

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    @AndyJS turnout

    I really don't know. Turnout is the massive question. My gut says, in referendums like this, with a campaign like this, it'll be ~84%

    To be 90% sure, I'd have to give myself a 15% band - So 76.5-91.5%

    That's obviously not much help for betting purposes!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Theuniondivvie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    So many inaccuracies in one post.
    come come divvie, Black Douglas has that title sewn up.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    When this whole referendum kerfuffle started several months ago, I thought it was going to be Yes 28% No 72%, with only the Western Isles voting Yes.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I missed Matt's brilliance from last week:

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03034/110914-MATT-web_3034404a.jpg
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I hope Scottish local government has undertaken a full risk assessment on public safety for election day with partners in the police.My former colleagues working in electoral registration,and many other professional local authority staff,and visitors to counts and polling stations,including journalists, are need to be safe.They have the legal right to remain safe and their employers have a legal duty to keep them safe.I hope all the Unison and Unite reps are banging on about this point with their respective employers.
    The alternative is to mobilise every retired sewerage worker,meat hygiene inspectors and binman to provide a civilian defence force.The nations'gravediggers are a last but frightening injection into the possible risks to social cohesion when we recall 1978.Nevertheless,there is never a place for sectarianism.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    NEW BETFAIR MARKET: Heywood and Middleton by-election, 9 October 2014

    Matched = £ ZERO ! :)

    UKIP currently 4.1 (Note: William Hill are currently offering 9)
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    AllyM said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    A fellow lurker. Named, Ally. Welcome.

    MI5 conspiracy indeed..

    Or should that be, Tipping Point?!
    Thanks :) AllyPally refers more to the part of London I live in, although I did live in Scotland till 2011, so take a personal interest more than anything.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,222
    edited September 2014
    JohnLoony No, in Quebec's 2 referendums Yes got 40%+ both times and almost won on the second, that was the best precedent. Remember too the SNP got 45% in 2011 and pro Yes parties 49% on the regional vote
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alanbrooke said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Evening, long time lurker first time poster here..

    This is starting to feel a little like before the Glenrothes by-election in 2008, and i think the result and disappointment for the SNP could be very similar.

    So many inaccuracies in one post.
    come come divvie, Black Douglas has that title sewn up.
    The suspicion is that Black Douglas shares a father with Scarlet and Black.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    stodge said:

    jayfdee said:

    A divorce rarely ends with both sides remaining friends.
    But I endorse your sentiments.
    Whatever the result there will be a generation of dissatisfaction in Scotland,and if a yes plunges Ruk and Scotland into recession again there will be even more dissatisfaction.
    I hope for a no,but will plan my affairs accordingly.

    The first thing that needs to happen on Friday, whatever the result, is for both sides (and that includes their supporters in the blogosphere) to show some generosity and understanding toward their opponents.

    It would be good to see Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Farage and Salmond sharing a platform in Edinburgh

    Insults, jibes and yes, even a bit of physicality have been the warp and weft of political campaigns for two centuries but after Friday we all need to take account of the result and move on (subject to those on here who will claim they got it right all along even those who've predicted both a YES and a NO win at various times).

    Agreed.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Hmm a staunch unionist pub in Glasgow. Woman says no, not a surprise. However what she said was interesting. Many of her friends were yes. Very eye opening.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    stodge said:

    jayfdee said:

    A divorce rarely ends with both sides remaining friends.
    But I endorse your sentiments.
    Whatever the result there will be a generation of dissatisfaction in Scotland,and if a yes plunges Ruk and Scotland into recession again there will be even more dissatisfaction.
    I hope for a no,but will plan my affairs accordingly.

    The first thing that needs to happen on Friday, whatever the result, is for both sides (and that includes their supporters in the blogosphere) to show some generosity and understanding toward their opponents.

    It would be good to see Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Farage and Salmond sharing a platform in Edinburgh

    Insults, jibes and yes, even a bit of physicality have been the warp and weft of political campaigns for two centuries but after Friday we all need to take account of the result and move on (subject to those on here who will claim they got it right all along even those who've predicted both a YES and a NO win at various times).

    There's too much bad blood. It will take years to undo the damage has been done.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,291
    volcanopete said:

    I hope Scottish local government has undertaken a full risk assessment on public safety for election day with partners in the police.My former colleagues working in electoral registration,and many other professional local authority staff,and visitors to counts and polling stations,including journalists, are need to be safe.They have the legal right to remain safe and their employers have a legal duty to keep them safe.I hope all the Unison and Unite reps are banging on about this point with their respective employers.
    The alternative is to mobilise every retired sewerage worker,meat hygiene inspectors and binman to provide a civilian defence force.The nations'gravediggers are a last but frightening injection into the possible risks to social cohesion when we recall 1978.Nevertheless,there is never a place for sectarianism.

    Despite some ludicrous comments from the Govenrment, I am absolutely convinced robust contingency planning has been carried out at all levels of the British and Scottish Governments for both a YES and a NO vote covering all aspects of public life - the economy, law and order, defence, transport etc.

    One thing I think local authorities are generally good is continegency planning - at least that's my experience in property matters. The response of local Councils to last winter's flooding was, after some initial problems with getting to grips with the scale of the crisis, generally good and I know of many Council officers who performed heroics on Christmas Eve and on other occasions,

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    Welcome AllyPally! Quiet here tonight - waiting for the polls, I guess.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,598
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Regarding Betfair paying out early on No. Can anybody remember several years ago Paddy Power paid out early on a market but in actual fact they got the result wrong. Can anybody remember what market that was?

    It was when man utd were well clear of Arsenal in 1998 but we came back and won it with two games to spare
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,208
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    BETTING POST:

    If you are a NO backer, get over to SKYBET:

    No vote % , 50.01% - 55.00% 5/4

    ABOVE EVS!!!!

    Just compare to the best NO price of 2/7 !

    As I said a couple of days ago, I got on Yes 45% - 50% at 2/1.
    I am voting Yes though, just hedging my bets.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    volcanopete said:

    I hope Scottish local government has undertaken a full risk assessment on public safety for election day with partners in the police.My former colleagues working in electoral registration,and many other professional local authority staff,and visitors to counts and polling stations,including journalists, are need to be safe.They have the legal right to remain safe and their employers have a legal duty to keep them safe.I hope all the Unison and Unite reps are banging on about this point with their respective employers.
    The alternative is to mobilise every retired sewerage worker,meat hygiene inspectors and binman to provide a civilian defence force.The nations'gravediggers are a last but frightening injection into the possible risks to social cohesion when we recall 1978.Nevertheless,there is never a place for sectarianism.

    Wibble. All of your polling stations are belong to us.

    Spaces after commas, please.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Hmm a staunch unionist pub in Glasgow. Woman says no, not a surprise. However what she said was interesting. Many of her friends were yes. Very eye opening.

    If you met her friends in person, they'd probably say no to you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    stodge said:

    volcanopete said:

    I hope Scottish local government has undertaken a full risk assessment on public safety for election day with partners in the police.My former colleagues working in electoral registration,and many other professional local authority staff,and visitors to counts and polling stations,including journalists, are need to be safe.They have the legal right to remain safe and their employers have a legal duty to keep them safe.I hope all the Unison and Unite reps are banging on about this point with their respective employers.
    The alternative is to mobilise every retired sewerage worker,meat hygiene inspectors and binman to provide a civilian defence force.The nations'gravediggers are a last but frightening injection into the possible risks to social cohesion when we recall 1978.Nevertheless,there is never a place for sectarianism.

    Despite some ludicrous comments from the Govenrment, I am absolutely convinced robust contingency planning has been carried out at all levels of the British and Scottish Governments for both a YES and a NO vote covering all aspects of public life - the economy, law and order, defence, transport etc.

    One thing I think local authorities are generally good is continegency planning - at least that's my experience in property matters. The response of local Councils to last winter's flooding was, after some initial problems with getting to grips with the scale of the crisis, generally good and I know of many Council officers who performed heroics on Christmas Eve and on other occasions,

    this is the same scottish goverment that hadn't taken any legal advice on EU entry ?
This discussion has been closed.

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