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Is the Rwanda flight ban going to help the Tories or not? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kyf_100 said:

    It's not my fault if you don't understand the technology and choose to make deliberately provocative nonsense posts like "it would still be expensive at $1"

    Contrast that with RCS1000s fairly measured take where he worked out a value of (I think it was around) $1500 based on transaction volume and throughput.

    You're just hysterical and seem to have an irrational hatred for bitcoin that I find amusing, to say the least. It's not going to $1. Maybe it's going to $1500. Maybe not.

    But either way, I'm not inclined to listen to Peter Schiff's bad takes, when he's been proven hilariously wrong so many times, as the 2018 tweet I shared with you demonstrates.
    He's not been proved wrong. Just because idiots drive the price of something above what its worth, does not make it magically worth more than its really worth, and the price will inevitably come back down. Gamestop surged to over $350 at one stage, before coming back down to earth.

    I understand the technology, but the technology can exist without Bitcoin. How much are shares in MySpace worth today? The Bitcoin technology will exist long after Bitcoin ceases to.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited June 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    So few people go to church these days that I doubt they're electorally significant in many constituencies.
    Hmm, I can think of one possible constituency. The Conservative Party membership.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    Foxy said:

    My church is changing the centuries old term for the role of "overseer" as not in keeping with the times because of its slavery connotations.

    Thinking about it, we realised it wasn't a great term, just time-honoured.
    That's interesting. What have you replaced it with, and will you repeat the operation with other titles that are similarly perceived by some as pejorative in other contexts, such as "Elder"?

    ISTM that one challenge is that you can end up with a term that is perceived as inoffensive as no one outside understands it, such as "Deacon".
  • IshmaelZ said:

    I will buy any number off you at $2 in that case
    Unsurprisingly I don't have any to sell, and if I did I'd sell them at the present market rate.

    When the market values them at $1 I'll happily buy them and sell them to you at $2 at that stage though.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    kyf_100 said:

    It's not my fault if you don't understand the technology and choose to make deliberately provocative nonsense posts like "it would still be expensive at $1"

    Contrast that with RCS1000s fairly measured take where he worked out a value of (I think it was around) $1500 based on transaction volume and throughput.

    You're just hysterical and seem to have an irrational hatred for bitcoin that I find amusing, to say the least. It's not going to $1. Maybe it's going to $1500. Maybe not.

    But either way, I'm not inclined to listen to Peter Schiff's bad takes, when he's been proven hilariously wrong so many times, as the 2018 tweet I shared with you demonstrates.
    As I know you know, there's a difference between value based on cashflows, expected target price based on market sentiment, and a consensus valuation based on business environment. RCS calculated the former, BR is talking about the latter, and the current situation is really based on the middle one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Andy_JS said:

    So few people go to church these days that I doubt they're electorally significant in many constituencies.
    If you add all the congregations together though you probably do get a significant number. And the other point to take into account is that, particularly in the Church of England, a lot of those people are the people who footsoldier for the Tory party.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    But Is there a difference between slower increases over time based on foresight, big jumps in short space based on lack of foresight?

    Or put another one, is their inherent vice in bigger increases over shorter space of time.
    The problem is that they were too slow to start raising rates in the first place. The effect of rate rises takes time to manifest itself in the economy, and now the Fed is behind the curve.

    The US economy is totally screwed, which those in power are denying because of the elections in November. They are trying to keep the economy pumped up on financial drugs for five months more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Scott_xP said:

    As far as I can recall, this is the first actual demo in Auchencairn in my lifetime. #Stopdeportations #RefugeesWelcome https://twitter.com/simon_brooke/status/1536777774341423104/photo/1


    Hmm.

    (1) The place has a population of 200. Not all voters but then not all the demonstrators are. That's 4.5% of the population right there (counting the photographer).
    (2) It is in a Tory constituency (Mr Jack; Dumfries and Galloway).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MattW said:

    That's interesting. What have you replaced it with, and will you repeat the operation with other titles that are similarly perceived by some as pejorative in other contexts, such as "Elder"?

    ISTM that one challenge is that you can end up with a term that is perceived as inoffensive as no one outside understands it, such as "Deacon".
    That's interesting, I agree. Overseer and elder are, at least, gender-neutral.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682

    Not all bad news for asylum seekers.


    You have to pay extra for that on Ryanair.

    Complimentary when you fly first class on Emirates though.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    I am just returned from transferring my worship to St James-the- Lesser-Still, Peckham Rye.

    I do love that book. HYUFD to a T.
  • algarkirk said:

    I am just returned from transferring my worship to St James-the- Lesser-Still, Peckham Rye.

    No doubt we will keep an eye on each other......
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Churchill was a huge fan of illegal immigration, he was a fan of the British Empire which was illegal immigration on an industrial scale.
    Not to mention invading the Mahdi state, Orange Free State, Transvaal, Natal, Iceland ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    He's not been proved wrong. Just because idiots drive the price of something above what its worth, does not make it magically worth more than its really worth, and the price will inevitably come back down. Gamestop surged to over $350 at one stage, before coming back down to earth.

    I understand the technology, but the technology can exist without Bitcoin. How much are shares in MySpace worth today? The Bitcoin technology will exist long after Bitcoin ceases to.
    As Bitcoin requires 0.5% of worldwide energy use to mine it, I can see a situation where Bitcoin is indeed banned by international convention.

    And hence I can foresee a Bitcoin value of zero.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Andy_JS said:

    So few people go to church these days that I doubt they're electorally significant in many constituencies.
    There are 2-3 million in the UK (publicity tends to focus on CoE weekly attendance which gives only a small % of the total picture) and they generally all vote. If you count occasionals there may be 5million. In 2019 the Tories got 3.65 million more votes than Labour.

    In terms of groups churchgoers are massive. The NHS employs 1.4 million. I suggest that we regard that as a big group for voting purposes (or at least I bet Labour does).

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    You have to pay extra for that on Ryanair.

    Complimentary when you fly first class on Emirates though.
    What don't you pay extra for on Ryanair?
  • As Bitcoin requires 0.5% of worldwide energy use to mine it, I can see a situation where Bitcoin is indeed banned by international convention.

    And hence I can foresee a Bitcoin value of zero.
    I believe the death of Bitcoin would be the equivalent of 20% of all flights being removed from the air.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682

    What don't you pay extra for on Ryanair?
    Oxygen but give it time.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Andy_JS said:

    I doubt Churchill would have supported illegal immigration.
    I doubt you'll find anybody who supports illegal immigration, apart from a handful of nutters.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    Andy_JS said:

    So few people go to church these days that I doubt they're electorally significant in many constituencies.
    Depending on how you count, a bit more than a million practicing Anglicans, similar number of Catholics, similar number of "others". Let's say three million practicing Christians in total.

    Not enough to swing an election- but consider who they are. Predominantly older, generally quite civic-minded, relatively traditional morals. The kind of people who really ought to be voting Conservative. Heck, the roughly equivalent political tradition in many European countries is called Christian Democracy.

    They (we) find it hard to vote for Johnson, what with all the lying, bullying and whatnot. But the Rwanda plan is the latest cat poo on top of the trifle. Not just because of the random ineffectual cruelty (though that's relevant, of course that's relevant). But also because Christian ethics have always been very clear- it's not OK to do a bad thing for a good result. The ends can never justify the means. That might be a foolish thing to believe, but that's how it is.

    Still, I'm sure that the Conservative Party and their new electorate will be very happy together. But the circumstances that led to the triumph of 2019 (gaining new voters while retaining old ones, having your cake and eating it so to speak) don't look like repeating.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    IshmaelZ said:

    I do love that book. HYUFD to a T.
    A masterpiece of humour, still relatively unknown. Like the minor works of Jerome K Jerome (try the Diary of a Pilgrimage) or Terry Major-Ball's 'Major Major', an unconsciously hilarious book about his brother John. Unmissable.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    That's interesting, I agree. Overseer and elder are, at least, gender-neutral.
    Diakonos is servant. The overseer word being rejected is presumably episkopos, bishop, but why you can't say bishop I have no idea. It seems it's etymologically the same thing but who knew?

    Christianity is a slavery friendly religion anyway, the implication of a that go the extra mile stuff is slaves should beaver away for their owners and collect a reward in the kingdom of heaven
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    edited June 2022
    mwadams said:

    In general, it would be best if the Government continue to follow a policy of shouting loudly about the horrors and iniquities they see everywhere, and then not actually doing anything. The closer they get to doing something, the worse the outcome.

    ETA: It's probably electorally best for them, too.
    I hate disagreeing with the sensible and thoughtful posters, but isn’t trying to hide lack of delivery with gimmicks so short on shelf life?

    For example, “at least we are doing something - now what would you do?” is no defence of a policy, it comes across as admittance you don’t really believe in it yourself! How long can that be kept up before it crashes and burns?

    There’s two huge dangers to the the government here, firstly, with their attempt at stopping the gush of asylum seekers, if it gets to having to fly them all back from Rwanda as Pritti Patel has now promised the UK courts, that will be quite a hit for them to take in the credibility stakes and opinion polls - it’s got to stick now, it’s got to work, it’s got to be watertight legal, and this feeds into my second point, all these roads the government are taking this summer, Rwanda Plan, Help on cost of living crisis, increase in interest rates and suppressing pay rises, beating the EU and changing the NIP has to work for them, or else this growing farce and chaos will force their own party to remove this government and try another approach, to save as many MPs as possible. They have taken these roads now, and it’s got to work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022

    Oxygen but give it time.
    There’s a spoof Ryanair safety briefing out there somewhere:

    “In the event of a loss of cabin pressure, oxygen masks will be available to rent for only £25. Insert your credit card into the slot in the ceiling and the mask will be deployed. Pull the mask towards you and put over your nose and mouth, then breathe normally. Please rent your own mask before renting masks for others”
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Diakonos is servant. The overseer word being rejected is presumably episkopos, bishop, but why you can't say bishop I have no idea. It seems it's etymologically the same thing but who knew?

    Christianity is a slavery friendly religion anyway, the implication of a that go the extra mile stuff is slaves should beaver away for their owners and collect a reward in the kingdom of heaven
    St Paul: I Corinthians 7. 21: "Slaves, if you can gain your freedom, do so."

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sandpit said:

    There’s a spoof Ryanair safety briefing out there somewhere:

    “In the event of a loss of cabin pressure, oxygen masks will be available to rent for only £25. Insert your credit card into the slot in the ceiling and the mask will be deployed. Pull the mask towards you and put over your nose and mouth, then breathe normally. Please rent your own mask before renting masks for others”
    Due to the number of oxygen masks damaged or destroyed during rental by consumers a damage deposit of £1000 will be taken per mask.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    IshmaelZ said:

    Diakonos is servant. The overseer word being rejected is presumably episkopos, bishop, but why you can't say bishop I have no idea. It seems it's etymologically the same thing but who knew?

    Christianity is a slavery friendly religion anyway, the implication of a that go the extra mile stuff is slaves should beaver away for their owners and collect a reward in the kingdom of heaven
    Presbyterian is of course derived from presbys = elder. Not sure if they would bother changing the Greek words themselves, and at least in the C of S 'deacon' has/had specific meanings already (originally a parish treasurer/auditor; now an auxiliary or extraparochial sort of minister).
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    I believe the death of Bitcoin would be the equivalent of 20% of all flights being removed from the air.
    Hope they ban private jets first.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Hope they ban private jets first.
    As a libertarian, I'd far rather see Bitcoin die a deserved death of its own accord, due to its own inherent failures, than see the state pick it as a loser.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    St Paul: I Corinthians 7. 21: "Slaves, if you can gain your freedom, do so."

    Selective quotation. In full

    Were you a slave when you were called? Don’t let it trouble you—although if you can gain your freedom, do so.

    And he means buy yourself out at the going rate not cast off the unjust oppression
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Diakonos is servant. The overseer word being rejected is presumably episkopos, bishop, but why you can't say bishop I have no idea. It seems it's etymologically the same thing but who knew?

    Christianity is a slavery friendly religion anyway, the implication of a that go the extra mile stuff is slaves should beaver away for their owners and collect a reward in the kingdom of heaven
    Speaking of the church, I’m having a long cold beer next to a cathedral which is SO old it was RESTORED in the 5th century AD

    It is by some measures the oldest Christian Cathedral in the world. Also I have a terrible view of Ararat, the “stolen mountain”, just across the Turkish border

    The beer is nice.

    ուրախություն


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kyf_100 said:

    Hope they ban private jets first.
    Yes. Absolutely. There is a huge amount of fat to trim from the top before we normies need to eat ze bugs.
    Rich and privileged pricks needs to have their extravagent lifestyles made unbearable before i give up a single sausage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes. Absolutely. There is a huge amount of fat to trim from the top before we normies need to eat ze bugs.
    Rich and privileged pricks needs to have their extravagent lifestyles made unbearable before i give up a single sausage.
    No need to worry about the bangers.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sun-men/8982700/maggots-locusts-sausage-taste/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Speaking of the church, I’m having a long cold beer next to a cathedral which is SO old it was RESTORED in the 5th century AD

    It is by some measures the oldest Christian Cathedral in the world. Also I have a terrible view of Ararat, the “stolen mountain”, just across the Turkish border

    The beer is nice.

    ուրախություն



    Beginning to worry we have a me/ mini me symbiosis going on. My beer with cathedral in the background

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited June 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Not to mention invading the Mahdi state, Orange Free State, Transvaal, Natal, Iceland ...
    Iran too with the vile Stalin and for oil as well.

    So Churchill also supported economic based illegal immigration.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Iran too with the vile Stalin and for oil as well.

    So Churchill also supported economic based illegal immigration.
    Right

    So for whom were you rooting in that war?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Iran too with the vile Stalin and for oil as well.

    So Churchill also supported economic based illegal immigration.
    Egypt is a bit complicated though ... I get a bit lost in the ins and outs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited June 2022
    Carnyx said:

    No need to worry about the bangers.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sun-men/8982700/maggots-locusts-sausage-taste/
    Witchetty grubs are very tasty! So are Thai fried grasshoppers, although the legs get caught in one's teeth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    IshmaelZ said:


    Beginning to worry we have a me/ mini me symbiosis going on. My beer with cathedral in the background

    There’s nothing nicer than a cold beer next to an ancient cathedral in the warm summer sun
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Right

    So for whom were you rooting in that war?
    The Allies.

    I was just rebutting the nonsense of AndyJS and others about Churchill, illegal immigration, and economic migrants.

    Sometimes illegal immigration is the only right option for people.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The Allies.

    I was just rebutting the nonsense of AndyJS and others about Churchill, illegal immigration, and economic migrants.

    Sometimes illegal immigration is the only right option for people.
    But not in 2022 from France, surely.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Andy_JS said:

    So few people go to church these days that I doubt they're electorally significant in many constituencies.
    Those that do are well to the right of the clergy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    The Allies.

    I was just rebutting the nonsense of AndyJS and others about Churchill, illegal immigration, and economic migrants.

    Sometimes illegal immigration is the only right option for people.
    To be fair, given your views on our neighbours across the channel, I can understand that you would support people trying to escape.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    How annoying is this? I want to visit the temple of Diana. They won't let me in to the park in flip flops. My boots are in my car which is a miles walk away. I have crossed deserts and climbed mountains in flip flops. But naah divieto innit?

    So, beer.
  • Churchill was a huge fan of illegal immigration, he was a fan of the British Empire which was illegal immigration on an industrial scale.

    He was also opposed to people taking back control from their unelected rulers.


    See his opposition to Indian independence.
    The British Empire wasn't illegal at the time, and I doubt he wanted Britain to be subject to foreign, unelected rulers (and no the monarchy doesn't count).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Big trouble coming in USA...

    " “We are in a dangerous place at the moment,” said Ben Berwick, the counsel for Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group dedicated to resisting authoritarianism. “There is a substantial faction in this country that has come to the point where they have rejected the premise that when we have elections, the losers of the elections acknowledge the right of the winner to govern.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/us/politics/election-deniers-midterms.html
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    IshmaelZ said:

    Selective quotation. In full

    Were you a slave when you were called? Don’t let it trouble you—although if you can gain your freedom, do so.

    And he means buy yourself out at the going rate not cast off the unjust oppression
    The context is one where Paul is advocating staying where you currently are, for rather obscure reasons, but in the case of slavery makes an interesting exception.

    Not all freedom from slavery was bought. Some came free.

    No, Paul was not a simple revolutionary. Just a complicated one and one of the all time great levellers about the human status.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Churchill was a huge fan of illegal immigration, he was a fan of the British Empire which was illegal immigration on an industrial scale.

    He was also opposed to people taking back control from their unelected rulers.


    See his opposition to Indian independence.
    Although he'd come round to India having dominion status by WWII and recognised independence had to be on the table longer-term with the failed Cripps mission in 1942.

    The story of India is giving them what we gave Australia/NZ about 20-30 years late, which unsurprisingly didn't go down too well.
  • Applicant said:

    But not in 2022 from France, surely.
    I love the argument that some people make that we should accept everyone who wants to flee France, because the French are treating them badly, and that's why we should stay in the ECHR.

    Errr, if the French are treating them so badly, why isn't the ECHR stopping them from doing that?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .

    Big trouble coming in USA...

    " “We are in a dangerous place at the moment,” said Ben Berwick, the counsel for Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group dedicated to resisting authoritarianism. “There is a substantial faction in this country that has come to the point where they have rejected the premise that when we have elections, the losers of the elections acknowledge the right of the winner to govern.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/us/politics/election-deniers-midterms.html

    Indeed. That's been the case since at least 2016 - the "Not My President" faction.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    There’s nothing nicer than a cold beer next to an ancient cathedral in the warm summer sun
    Correct

    I do like Sicily. Rather a sister op to us, having been invaded by Normans in the late 11th C
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Depending on how you count, a bit more than a million practicing Anglicans, similar number of Catholics, similar number of "others". Let's say three million practicing Christians in total.

    Not enough to swing an election- but consider who they are. Predominantly older, generally quite civic-minded, relatively traditional morals. The kind of people who really ought to be voting Conservative. Heck, the roughly equivalent political tradition in many European countries is called Christian Democracy.

    They (we) find it hard to vote for Johnson, what with all the lying, bullying and whatnot. But the Rwanda plan is the latest cat poo on top of the trifle. Not just because of the random ineffectual cruelty (though that's relevant, of course that's relevant). But also because Christian ethics have always been very clear- it's not OK to do a bad thing for a good result. The ends can never justify the means. That might be a foolish thing to believe, but that's how it is.

    Still, I'm sure that the Conservative Party and their new electorate will be very happy together. But the circumstances that led to the triumph of 2019 (gaining new voters while retaining old ones, having your cake and eating it so to speak) don't look like repeating.
    If we listened to the Bishops we'd be putting up anyone 'in need' around the world in our homes with no limit.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,427
    edited June 2022
    Applicant said:

    .

    Indeed. That's been the case since at least 2016 - the "Not My President" faction.
    No its not, the "not my President" idea has always existed, or as the Simpsons put it "don't blame me, I voted for Kodos" (1996, 20 years before 2016 election).

    That's very different to using violence and abuse of authority to try to overturn election results.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited June 2022
    tlg86 said:

    To be fair, given your views on our neighbours across the channel, I can understand that you would support people trying to escape.
    Absolutely but being entirely serious I view immigration and asylum policies through the prism of the 1930s and 1940s.

    How would this policy treated Jews fleeing Europe then?

    Sending them to Rwanda is wrong on so many levels.

    I’m aware that policy would have been popular in the 30s/40s but morally it is as bankrupt now as it was then.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Applicant said:

    .

    Indeed. That's been the case since at least 2016 - the "Not My President" faction.
    It has totally infected GOP now and they are placing people who do not believe in democracy into key elections for posts where the winner will oversee the POTUS election count in 2024.

    The nightmare is coming for america.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    What don't you pay extra for on Ryanair?
    Flying is now sufficiently unpleasant that I actively look to avoid it.

    I'd take the train to France/Benelux/North Germany now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:

    The context is one where Paul is advocating staying where you currently are, for rather obscure reasons, but in the case of slavery makes an interesting exception.

    Not all freedom from slavery was bought. Some came free.

    No, Paul was not a simple revolutionary. Just a complicated one and one of the all time great levellers about the human status.

    I thought the main routes were buying freedom or getting it under your owners will.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    And no mention of the protocol and falling pound due to concerns about a trade war with Europe? The view from the continent appears to be that the UK's proposed changes to the protocol are maximalist and there is no point negotiating with Johnson who is a busted flush anyway. Given pressure from industry, the US and our own parliament there's scepticism this will actually be made law anyway. Which does beg the question of why he is doing it. Power sharing in Northern Ireland? I'm all for that but perhaps we will come to a point when power will have to be shared between those who actually want to sit in the Assembly. Given the lies Johnson told to the unionists over his oven ready deal I wonder if he has the credibility to spell that out?

    On another matter here's an interesting piece suggesting we shouldn't fall for Putin's bluster and his military is about to hit a brick wall. Certainly a well reasoned argument.

    https://time.com/6184437/ukraine-russian-offensive/
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    If we listened to the Bishops we'd be putting up anyone 'in need' around the world in our homes with no limit.
    I imagine you can’t move for Ukrainian refugees in Lambeth Palace.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366

    Those that do are well to the right of the clergy.
    True, though not that surprising. After all, stipendary clergy are of working age and very many of churchgoers aren't. Clergy are also pretty much all graduates in one way or another. We know that age and level of education have a massive effect on voting affiliation, especially when the dividing line is about social issues not economics.

    But @AugustusCarp2 could well be right. Even if churchgoers aren't raving lefties, there's a line that many of them won't want to cross that HMG seems determined to.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo expelled Churchill's grandson. He has no qualms about trashing his legacy.
    I caught up with Nicholas a few weeks ago. He is back in the party and very happy to be so.
  • Keir doing well today!
  • As I reported on here from my source, Keir has come out AGAINST the strikes
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    IshmaelZ said:

    Correct

    I do like Sicily. Rather a sister op to us, having been invaded by Normans in the late 11th C
    Sicily is much nicer than Armenia. Trust me

    So far Armenia outside the capital is a big bleak Soviet toilet, constructed (vaguely) on the saddest bit of the Caucasus - the bits no one else could be bothered to pacify, and which the Armenians fled to after the genocide

    It’s pretty hideous

    You have to be REALLY into history and archaeology and remote- places-with-no-tourists to enjoy it. Happily I love all these

    And Ararat is such an awesome spectacle, looming over the barrenlands

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    Flying is now sufficiently unpleasant that I actively look to avoid it.

    I'd take the train to France/Benelux/North Germany now.
    Mrs C and I have two places that we would like to go to outside UK. One is in the Canary Islands and the other is Thailand, where we have family. Sadly both mean flights!
  • One of Starmer's better performances I'd say.

    7/10, not bad.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited June 2022

    No its not, the "not my President" idea has always existed, or as the Simpsons put it "don't blame me, I voted for Kodos" (1996, 20 years before 2016 election).

    That's very different to using violence and abuse of authority to try to overturn election results.
    Abuse of authority, yes, but it failed. And there really wasn't any violence aimed at overturning election results.

    And if Trump runs again in 2024 and wins, do you think the American left is going to accept it quietly? Or will there be more "mostly peaceful" protests?
  • I am amused by anyone surprised that clergy are a bunch of delusional virtue signallers with their heads in the clouds and little grasp of reality.

    I mean, that is kind of their job description . . .
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    People claim that SKS's back story is colourless and boring, but it seems his uncle went down on an antelope
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    It has totally infected GOP now and they are placing people who do not believe in democracy into key elections for posts where the winner will oversee the POTUS election count in 2024.

    The nightmare is coming for america.
    The main problem is that the American Left is equally crazed

    The madness on either side would fizzle out if it was unopposed and unprovoked. But both sides keep stoking the other, they see no point or purpose in compromise, and they violently detest each other

    Incredibly, I can see America tumbling into civil war, or at least major civil strife. All those guns
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Did Sir Korma mention the "R" word in his questions today ?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited June 2022

    As I reported on here from my source, Keir has come out AGAINST the strikes

    Yuck. They have every right to strike if they act within the law. If Labour won’t defend them, who will? My basic view of railway unions is “I wish mine was as effective”.

    It is of course east to split the difference. “They should get round the table and resolve it”. “Failure of Schapps to show leadership”. “We support higher wages and with our economic policies they’ll be a doddle to afford”.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    As I reported on here from my source, Keir has come out AGAINST the strikes

    Wes Streeting supports them if I remember correctly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Big trouble coming in USA...

    " “We are in a dangerous place at the moment,” said Ben Berwick, the counsel for Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group dedicated to resisting authoritarianism. “There is a substantial faction in this country that has come to the point where they have rejected the premise that when we have elections, the losers of the elections acknowledge the right of the winner to govern.” "

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/us/politics/election-deniers-midterms.html

    If the Republicans win both the House and Senate in November I assume they won't have a problem accepting the results of those elections.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Like him or loathe him this is a good thread by Jonathan Powell on the protocol position.

    https://twitter.com/jnpowell1/status/1536632601938694149

    'The GFA was based on the idea that change in the status of NI required the consent of the people there. It does not require cross community agreement - separate majorities of unionists and of nationalists - but a simple majority of the entire population in a referendum. Consent does not apply to all issues. If it did then Brexit wouldn’t have happened in NI - over 60% voted against. It is bizarre to suggest consent applies to one part of Brexit – the Protocol – but not the rest. Especially when a majority in NI are content with the Protocol.'

    'The tragedy is there is an obvious solution.The EU is offering the equivalent of a green lane for goods destined for NI.That is what the DUP say they want – the Sainsbury’s test. All the ideological demands, ECJ jurisdiction, are for Johnson and the ERG not for anyone in NI.'
  • Applicant said:

    Abuse of authority, yes, but it failed. And there really wasn't any violence aimed at overturning election results.

    And if Trump runs again in 2024 and wins, do you think the American left is going to accept it quietly? Or will there be more "mostly peaceful" protests?
    It failed this time, but the fact that they even tried is deeply concerning.

    What's even more concerning is efforts to oust people who certify the election results based on who voted and replace them with partisans who are willing to refuse to certify the election results and want to overturn them.

    In this country returning officers are trusted to certify the results properly. In America authorities have always been willing to certify the results properly too, but if that ends because partisans are put into authority then that's a completely different matter.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    .

    No.
    Australia operates a legally dubious regime of forcible detention and processing of asylum seekers, offshore in foreign jurisdictions.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manus_Regional_Processing_Centre
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru_Regional_Processing_Centre

    It does not deport individuals seeking asylum to seek asylum in a third country, as we aim to do with Rwanda.
    Correct. And that is a crucial distinction.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    Pulpstar said:

    Did Sir Korma mention the "R" word in his questions today ?

    Which one?

    Rayner?
    Rwanda?
    Railways?
    Restaurant (Indian, but doing deliveries)?

    I'm detecting a pattern. Still, could be worse. Roy Jenkins could still be an active politician.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    That's interesting, I agree. Overseer and elder are, at least, gender-neutral.
    Isn’t Ruth Davidson an Elder of the Kirk? One of my aunties is.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited June 2022

    Depending on how you count, a bit more than a million practicing Anglicans, similar number of Catholics, similar number of "others". Let's say three million practicing Christians in total.

    Not enough to swing an election- but consider who they are. Predominantly older, generally quite civic-minded, relatively traditional morals. The kind of people who really ought to be voting Conservative. Heck, the roughly equivalent political tradition in many European countries is called Christian Democracy.
    Fair point on "Christian Democracy" - the UK has never developed a similar monolithic tradition, due to pre-existing party relationships eg nonconformist involvement in the early Tarde Union movement / rural Anglicans-Tories etc.

    I think you perhaps underplay the impact of "community" eg Roman Catholic Community, where the numbers are more significant, and differences in distribution.

    AIUI the Tories get a modest plurality amongst self-identified Anglicans, and Labour a more marginal one amongst Roman Catholics. I don't know about hoe "others" may vote, beyond a note that socially conservative churches, including what used to be called black-led churches and 'new churches' may be quite significant in London and locally in other places. I can well imagine 'new churches' leaning Tory on 'moral' questions, but would not try and estimate how social conservatism plays out wrt ethnicity in the 'black led' case.

    Incidentally - slogans and mottoes are fun for the misjudged imagery. From a church in Nottingham's facebook page this AM: "Our vision is to see the church on fire" You sure, vicar?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Cicero said:

    Well, he certainly can´t count. There are 26 Bishops in the House of Lords, and a total membership of 768. so 3%, not 10%. The Lords is the second largest Parliamentary Chamber in the World, after the Chinese National Peoples Congress. It still has 92 hereditaries for goodness sake... Major League reform cannot be put off forever.
    The whole purpose of the 92 hereditaries remaining was that their position is indefensible. They are the stone in the shoe that prompts us to reform the House of Lords.

    If Blair had got rid of them all we would have a fully appointed house - profoundly undemocratic - with no impetus for change
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    Which one?

    Rayner?
    Rwanda?
    Railways?
    Restaurant (Indian, but doing deliveries)?

    I'm detecting a pattern. Still, could be worse. Roy Jenkins could still be an active politician.
    Screwing doesn’t begin with R. 🫢
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    MattW said:

    Fair point on "Christian Democracy" - the UK has never developed a similar monolithic tradition, due to pre-existing party relationships eg nonconformist involvement in the early Tarde Union movement / rural Anglicans-Tories etc.

    I think you perhaps underplay the impact of "community" eg Roman Catholic Community, where the numbers are more significant, and differences in distribution.

    AIUI the Tories get a modest plurality amongst self-identified Anglicans, and Labour a more marginal one amongst Roman Catholics. I don't know about hoe "others" may vote, beyond a note that socially conservative churches, including what used to be called black-led churches and 'new churches' may be quite significant in London and locally in other places.

    Incidentally - slogans and mottoes are fun. From a church in Nottingham's facebook page: "Our vision is to see the church on fire" You sure, vicar?
    As long as the insurance is in place...

    (Seriously. There are quite a lot of church buildings that are absolute millstones for their congregations. Far too big to maintain or heat, impossible to adapt. At least some church fires are a blessing from the almighty.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    If Australia can successfully stop illegal immigration, then so can the UK. And whichever party most effectively tries to do so will win 90% of elections in the future.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509

    It failed this time, but the fact that they even tried is deeply concerning.
    Politico, 12 December 2016:

    Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told POLITICO on Monday that Trump is a “potentially dangerous president.”

    “It became clear to me last night that this man is not only unqualified to be president, he’s a danger to the republic,” Himes said. “I do think the Electoral College should choose someone other than Donald Trump to be president. That will lead to a fascinating legal issue ... but I would rather have a legal problem — a constitutional legal problem -- then to find out the White House was now the Kremlin’s chief ally.”

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    It failed this time, but the fact that they even tried is deeply concerning.

    What's even more concerning is efforts to oust people who certify the election results based on who voted and replace them with partisans who are willing to refuse to certify the election results and want to overturn them.

    In this country returning officers are trusted to certify the results properly. In America authorities have always been willing to certify the results properly too, but if that ends because partisans are put into authority then that's a completely different matter.
    The entire American electoral system seems pretty much designed to invite challenges - one thing that we definitely get right is that we get the result on the night or, very latest, the following afternoon. They're still counting for weeks after the election. And once the genie is out of the bottle (as it has been since at least 2000) each side is going to do whatever they can to sway the election their way because they know the other is also doing it. In a proper electoral environment, Zuckerberg wouldn't be able to pour in millions to buy turnout in Dem-friendly areas.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Leon said:

    The main problem is that the American Left is equally crazed

    The madness on either side would fizzle out if it was unopposed and unprovoked. But both sides keep stoking the other, they see no point or purpose in compromise, and they violently detest each other

    Incredibly, I can see America tumbling into civil war, or at least major civil strife. All those guns
    The US Democrats are about as left wing as our Toty Party, although you will no doubt be able to find individuals who are a bit mad. Both Tory and Labour politicians have helped the Democrats in elections.
    There is no comparison with today's GOP who plan to win by making it harder for people to vote and refusing to believe they have lost (Just find me 11.000 votes). GW Bush and Liz Cheney are no left wingers but at least they believe in democracy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited June 2022

    I am amused by anyone surprised that clergy are a bunch of delusional virtue signallers with their heads in the clouds and little grasp of reality.

    I mean, that is kind of their job description . . .

    Not up for a mudwrestle, but I suggest you perhaps need to refer to the history of organisations founded by clergy.

    One of their advantages is that they have the time, autonomy, skills, and facilities which are needed to start significant new movements.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    Andy_JS said:

    "World Health Organization will rename monkeypox after scientists claimed its name is racist and discriminatory towards Africa"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10918619/World-Health-Organization-rename-monkeypox-scientists-claimed-RACIST.html

    And canarypox is discriminatory against the Spanish.

    Or might it be that both relate to the primary vector?
  • Politico, 12 December 2016:

    Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, told POLITICO on Monday that Trump is a “potentially dangerous president.”

    “It became clear to me last night that this man is not only unqualified to be president, he’s a danger to the republic,” Himes said. “I do think the Electoral College should choose someone other than Donald Trump to be president. That will lead to a fascinating legal issue ... but I would rather have a legal problem — a constitutional legal problem -- then to find out the White House was now the Kremlin’s chief ally.”

    Himes was utterly right that Trump was a dangerous President and a danger to the republic, but the Electoral College result wasn't overturned and there was no effort to refuse to certify the results, as there was 2020 - and no effort to replace electoral officers with people who were pledging not to certify the results either.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It failed this time, but the fact that they even tried is deeply concerning.

    What's even more concerning is efforts to oust people who certify the election results based on who voted and replace them with partisans who are willing to refuse to certify the election results and want to overturn them.

    In this country returning officers are trusted to certify the results properly. In America authorities have always been willing to certify the results properly too, but if that ends because partisans are put into authority then that's a completely different matter.
    The micromanagement, by politicians, of the election process itself, is seriously disturbing in the US.

    When we see elected mayors and governors deciding on the placement and opening hours of polling stations, the design of ballot papers, on the individuals responsible for overseeing the counting, declaring and certifying the result, there are reasons to be very suspicious indeed. That’s before we get on to the boundaries, where the word “Gerrymandering” was coined.

    In the UK, we take for granted that the electoral commission, the boundaries commission, the council officials and count staff, the returning officers and police are all impartial. That simply isn’t the case in the States.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    The US Democrats are about as left wing as our Toty Party, although you will no doubt be able to find individuals who are a bit mad. Both Tory and Labour politicians have helped the Democrats in elections.
    There is no comparison with today's GOP who plan to win by making it harder for people to vote and refusing to believe they have lost (Just find me 11.000 votes). GW Bush and Liz Cheney are no left wingers but at least they believe in democracy.
    I think @leon is right though, we will see political violence during next POTUS count process and aftermath. I can't see it escalating to civil war, but jeez who knows. It's all a powder keg that's for sure with guns everywhere and militia and so on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited June 2022

    On another matter here's an interesting piece suggesting we shouldn't fall for Putin's bluster and his military is about to hit a brick wall. Certainly a well reasoned argument.

    https://time.com/6184437/ukraine-russian-offensive/

    That’s a good piece, well written and close to what we have seen of Western intelligence reports and Ukranian sources.

    There’s always the fog of war through, and we can never really be sure of what’s happening on the ground. We in the West need to keep Ukraine in the headlines, and keep up the flow of arms and training.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Another shockingly poor performance from SKS

    Not able to answer what he is in favour of or against

    SKSWNBPM
  • And canarypox is discriminatory against the Spanish.

    Or might it be that both relate to the primary vector?
    Chickenpox is discriminatory against the French.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    The US Democrats are about as left wing as our Toty Party, although you will no doubt be able to find individuals who are a bit mad. Both Tory and Labour politicians have helped the Democrats in elections.
    There is no comparison with today's GOP who plan to win by making it harder for people to vote and refusing to believe they have lost (Just find me 11.000 votes). GW Bush and Liz Cheney are no left wingers but at least they believe in democracy.
    Delusional. Hardcore American Wokeness - increasingly taken up by the left of the Dems - makes our own bien pensantery look tepid

    Check the Twitter account @libsoftiktok

    Many PB-ers seem wilfully unaware of what is happening in America. It is not just the twats of the GOP, they have a mirror image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    I don't know if this has been posted before, but a brilliantly clear explanation of how mechanical watches work.
    https://ciechanow.ski/mechanical-watch/

    I am not into watch porn at all (I don't even own one), but still found it fascinating.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited June 2022

    Himes was utterly right that Trump was a dangerous President and a danger to the republic, but the Electoral College result wasn't overturned and there was no effort to refuse to certify the results, as there was 2020 - and no effort to replace electoral officers with people who were pledging not to certify the results either.
    Splitting hairs, not least given that you've moved in two posts from "the fact that they even tried is deeply concerning" to "the Electoral College result wasn't overturned". This is a discussion about "a substantial faction in this country that has come to the point where they have rejected the premise that when we have elections, the losers of the elections acknowledge the right of the winner to govern.

    Republican electors have been inundated with e-mails, letters, phone calls, and even death threats urging them not to vote for President-elect Donald Trump... A petition urging electoral college members to make Hillary Clinton president has almost 5 million signatures... Elector Ash Kare reports receiving 3,000 to 5,000 requests and demands per day that he become a "faithless elector" and has been assigned a plainsclothes police officer for protection... Michael Banerian, 22, of Michigan has received death threats. The Detroit News verified a message where the sender promised to "put a bullet" in the young man's mouth... As Banerian walked to a demonstration on the Oakland University campus with a group of fellow Trump supporters, he told the reporter that he was not afraid of the death threats. At that moment, an anti-Trump protester attacked the group.
This discussion has been closed.