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The betting money’s still going on a 2022 BJ exit – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    Do I take it that once again SKS proved to be the Stuart Pearce of penalty takers, even although the goal keeper has 2 hands and 1leg tied up behind his back? I am shocked, truly shocked.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    Governments have stayed put in recessions before. Recession in 92 kept Labour out of power. Economy simply tanking shouldn’t assume is great for oppositions. Only governments can act, if they get things right they can claim getting the big calls right. Meanwhile voters may already be nervous about changing PM and government when country in cost of living and economic crisis so should be easy to help voters along that way by making change and opposition sound scary. Labour would have more chance of winning next election if the country wasn’t in crisis. It’s harder work now for Labour to convince such big change is safe and not making it worse or wrecking the recovery, and hard work to tie things that’s international to the domestic government - any mistakes government have made they will so easily now blame on international situation out of their control as the line between the two will be very blurred.
    The Tories need to reestablish the link in voters minds between Labour and economic incompetence to nullify CoL. I think theyll struggle to put it mildly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,734

    EFTA members of the EEA have exactly the same input into EU Directive and rule making (as far as it relates to the EEA) as full EU members with the exception of the final vote. And if they don't like the final decision they can reject it. Not something that was available to the UK as a member of the EU.
    That's a very rose-tinted view of the process and the EEA isn't designed to allow piecemeal rejection of parts of single market law.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690

    Governments have stayed put in recessions before. Recession in 92 kept Labour out of power. Economy simply tanking shouldn’t assume is great for oppositions. Only governments can act, if they get things right they can claim getting the big calls right. Meanwhile voters may already be nervous about changing PM and government when country in cost of living and economic crisis so should be easy to help voters along that way by making change and opposition sound scary. Labour would have more chance of winning next election if the country wasn’t in crisis. It’s harder work now for Labour to convince such big change is safe and not making it worse or wrecking the recovery, and hard work to tie things that’s international to the domestic government - any mistakes government have made they will so easily now blame on international situation out of their control as the line between the two will be very blurred.
    on that basis 92 is a VERY interesting election. On the one hand you have the seriously competent John Smith as shadow Chancellor let down by Neil Kinnock's image and on the other hand you have John Major and Norman Lamont
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    eek said:

    HS2's problems started on day 1 when it was sold as a faster way between London and Birmingham rather than a new fast direct rail line that will allow us to seriously increase capacity on the existing lines and options for those who want to go from somewhere on the line to somewhere else on the line.

    And since 8am on the day it was announced it's been fighting a losing battle.
    That was always only one of the benefits. You seem to be confusing the justifications with the critics' misrepresentation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585
    As a Leave voter I have to say the UK quitting/being kicked out of Horizon, the EU science fund, seems pretty bloody sub-optimal

    Get this fucker Boris out of Number 10 and find someone who will deal pragmatically with the EU. Yes the EU is boorish and overbearing, at times, but we have to rub along with it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    DavidL said:

    Do I take it that once again SKS proved to be the Stuart Pearce of penalty takers, even although the goal keeper has 2 hands and 1leg tied up behind his back? I am shocked, truly shocked.

    Starmer’s cunning plan to prop up Johnson by asking useless questions @indypremium https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/keir-starmer-boris-johnson-pmqs-nhs-b2096540.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    Leon said:

    As a Leave voter I have to say the UK quitting/being kicked out of Horizon, the EU science fund, seems pretty bloody sub-optimal

    Get this fucker Boris out of Number 10 and find someone who will deal pragmatically with the EU. Yes the EU is boorish and overbearing, at times, but we have to rub along with it

    I can't believe he has helped his case with his backbench today after it seems declaring "no one can stop him" and "he has only just begun".

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,959
    Quite amusing report here on how boozing Scots - faced with Sturgeon's minimum price for alcohol units policy - simply moved from cider to vodka, and cut down on food.

    More alky deaths than ever, to go along with Europe's worst performance on drug-related deaths.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/06/emily-carver-meanwhile-in-scotland-the-snp-bungles-schools-ferries-drugs-rail-and-now-minimum-alcohol-pricie.html

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited June 2022

    The Tories need to reestablish the link in voters minds between Labour and economic incompetence to nullify CoL. I think theyll struggle to put it mildly.
    In 92 Labour helped them. The Tories trying to frighten voters with prospect of Labour raising taxes on hard up households in recession - Labour were simultaneously out they saying “we definitely will, investment from more tax on you is our master plan.”

    Which is why the coming big tax cuts from Boris government works well as lead jab for the knock out blow as in this situation people will applaud it, not ask how it’s to be funded, or it’s impact on inflation or borrowing. The knock out blow is then the manifesto Labour produce, opposing the tax cuts, promising spending and investment that needs to be costed cause the 92 Tory campaign will be resurrected.

    It gets a lot more difficult Labour closing the deal. Despite everything Poll is only 4% behind, Boris and his supporters still confident they can win majority.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,734
    This is not how most Irish people think about NATO:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/06/08/ireland-would-not-need-referendum-to-join-nato-says-taoiseach/

    Ireland would not need to hold a referendum to join NATO as it is a policy decision of the government, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2022

    Quite amusing report here on how boozing Scots - faced with Sturgeon's minimum price for alcohol units policy - simply moved from cider to vodka, and cut down on food.

    More alky deaths than ever, to go along with Europe's worst performance on drug-related deaths.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/06/emily-carver-meanwhile-in-scotland-the-snp-bungles-schools-ferries-drugs-rail-and-now-minimum-alcohol-pricie.html

    This is the third time we've had this on PB. The overall benefit was there across the population - it is just the out and out alkies who are being focussed on for political effect and political bias.

    Of course, the likes of Lord-to-be Frost campaigned bitterly against this pretty mild law (when he was i/c the Scots Whisky Federation, almost none of which drink was affected at all).
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Quite amusing report here on how boozing Scots - faced with Sturgeon's minimum price for alcohol units policy - simply moved from cider to vodka, and cut down on food.

    More alky deaths than ever, to go along with Europe's worst performance on drug-related deaths.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/06/emily-carver-meanwhile-in-scotland-the-snp-bungles-schools-ferries-drugs-rail-and-now-minimum-alcohol-pricie.html

    Let's all laugh at a miserably fucked up, unhappy, impoverished and psychologically disturbed subset of the population
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285

    Sorry, you’ve triggered me now: that’s nonsense; the UK is superb at delivering mega projects.

    Our olympics was on time and on budget and left a fantastic legacy, contrast to Montreal, Athens or Sydney.

    Terminal 5 was on time and on budget, except the baggage system failed on day one (it was fixed 48 hours later) and no one ever forgot it. It’s a superb experience now.

    Crossrail was late but it was the largest and most complex rail project in Europe - ever - with a hugely aggressive delivery timeframe. It is now open will deliver all the benefits in its original business case. It has a strong international brand and is now selling its expertise worldwide, through Crossrail international.

    Contrast with Berlin Brandenburg airport which had to be rebuilt and redesigned several times because they got it wrong. Or the plethora of abandoned projects and white elephants around the world that never deliver.

    The UK is good at mega projects- very good - it’s just our expectations are that absolutely everything goes perfectly, all the time, and we have a huge woe is me whinge whenever it doesn’t because moaning is our national sport.
    Is HS2 on time and budget?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    I already addressed that. Stop creating straw men.

    And the Labour proposal was specifically for membership of The Customs Union because they said they wanted to have say over EU trade deals. They were either profoundly ignorant or profoundly dishonest.

    And you are telling outright lies. Labour did not vote for every compromise on offer. The most obvious compromise was the EFTA/EEA membership and only 4 Labour MPs supported that.

    Dragging in how the Tories voted is immaterial because I have not been supporting their stance either. They ere just as bad. I was specifically calling you out for your utter drivel about Labour supporting compromise. They didn't. They only supported proposals that were either impossible or which negated the referendum result.

    It is clear from your opening paragraph that you also would rather have reversed the referendum result which is why you deserve nothing from scorn for your dishonesty.
    Go back and read what I said, I said Labour voted for every compromise *except* Eustice's. Because that left the Irish border issue in limbo.
    All my opening paragraph reveals is that I thought that Brexit was a bad idea. I still think this. Your arrogant claim that I can therefore be dismissed is typical of Leavers' hubris, and is why you fanatics have steered us into this disastrous situation instead of trying to find a workable compromise that protected the GFA and our economy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at a miserably fucked up, unhappy, impoverished and psychologically disturbed subset of the population
    Quite so. I thought @DavidL made some very good comments on here yesterday, the last time some Unionist media type picked out the bit that would make a good story.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Quite amusing report here on how boozing Scots - faced with Sturgeon's minimum price for alcohol units policy - simply moved from cider to vodka, and cut down on food.

    More alky deaths than ever, to go along with Europe's worst performance on drug-related deaths.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/06/emily-carver-meanwhile-in-scotland-the-snp-bungles-schools-ferries-drugs-rail-and-now-minimum-alcohol-pricie.html

    It would also help if HMG hadn't been so obstructive about the relatively mild initiatives the SG did bring in (notably drug rooms). But the SG has been too timid anyway, partly because of the outcries from the Unionist media (who seem to hate junkies but support jakies, for reasons i can't comprehend).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    That's a very rose-tinted view of the process and the EEA isn't designed to allow piecemeal rejection of parts of single market law.
    No I agree but it does allow withdrawal from relevant chapters if the EFTA member is strongly enough opposed. And without leaving EFTA or the EEA. When we were part of the EU the only option for us was to accept the rule or leave the whole organisation.

    EFTA members also do not have to implement directives and rules verbatim as EU members do. The EFTA members pass laws in Parliament which are supposed to align as closely as possible with EU rules but with their own interpretation/implementation. Hundreds of EU rules have been 'interpreted' in this way so that they do not exactly match the EU regulations.

    It is covered well in the Fullfact article here:

    https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-norway/

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    Let's all laugh at a miserably fucked up, unhappy, impoverished and psychologically disturbed subset of the population
    Bit harsh on the Scots, there?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    DavidL said:

    Do I take it that once again SKS proved to be the Stuart Pearce of penalty takers, even although the goal keeper has 2 hands and 1leg tied up behind his back? I am shocked, truly shocked.

    It depends wether you think he missed an open goal, or, for his own reasons, choose to ignore it. There’s a lot of Tories who just want Boris buried now asap, with everyone joining in on that, so they have a skewed view of what happened at todays PMQs.

    I like the way the opposition party’s reacted today to be honest 🙂
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,183
    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited June 2022

    Go back and read what I said, I said Labour voted for every compromise *except* Eustice's. Because that left the Irish border issue in limbo.
    All my opening paragraph reveals is that I thought that Brexit was a bad idea. I still think this. Your arrogant claim that I can therefore be dismissed is typical of Leavers' hubris, and is why you fanatics have steered us into this disastrous situation instead of trying to find a workable compromise that protected the GFA and our economy.
    If you're calling someone who has been a supporter of EEA/EFTA - the only off-the-shelf compromise between membership and no deal - since longe before the referendum was called a "fanatic" then I rather suggest you should be looking in the mirror.

    It's clear that in the indicative votes Labour only supported EU membership or something which EU membership was the only way to get.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243
    Farooq said:

    It feels like you're the one being dishonest though. You enumerated the Labour votes on some of the indicative votes, but dismissed the customs union one as "impossible". Now we see it wasn't "impossible" but merely undesirable in your opinion.
    No, as set out they were impossible. Membership of the Customs Union requires full EU membership. The Labour proposal particularly was clearly for membership of The Customs Union not just 'a' customs union as they argued for UK input to EU third party trade agreements.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).

    JFC! Though, on reflection, the comparison may be apt, a bit late for Whit Sunday though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482
    .

    I can't believe he has helped his case with his backbench today after it seems declaring "no one can stop him" and "he has only just begun".

    From Labour's absolute boy, to Tory absolute arse.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,585
    File under “Things Can Only Get Better”

    “Russian deputy proposes to cancel the recognition of #Lithuania independence. Seems like #Ukraine isn't the only target of putin's sick imperialist ambitions! We need to stop putin now, before he starts claiming that Paris and Berlin are native russian cities”

    https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1534530462986772481?s=21&t=JQPBplDtRKIsungNMSGVHg
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).

    Answer B is utter fantasy 🤭
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    David Neal, chief inspector of Borders & Immigration, says he's not met the home secretary since starting job 14 months ago

    He says 6 scheduled meetings with Priti Patel have been cancelled

    "I'm frustrated because I think I have a lot of things to offer"

    @CommonsHomeAffs

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1534528581124210689
  • Leon said:

    As a Leave voter I have to say the UK quitting/being kicked out of Horizon, the EU science fund, seems pretty bloody sub-optimal

    Get this fucker Boris out of Number 10 and find someone who will deal pragmatically with the EU. Yes the EU is boorish and overbearing, at times, but we have to rub along with it

    Or we should just set up our own alternative to Horizon. The EU is not some science superpower, they don't even have any universities in the Top 50 as far as I know in any of the major international rankings.

    The UK, Israel, Switzerland and other comparable nations combined all have more more scientific development than the EU combined does. If the EU want to politicise science, then we should step away from the politics and concentrate on the science instead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482
    This explains Ukraine's desperation to get hold of NATO standard heavy weapons.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1534497485237932032
    ...A European defence official told me this morning that Soviet/Russian-standard ammunition is severely depleted across Europe. "It's gone already in three months...It doesn't exist anymore." Added that inflation is going to make all ammunition much more expensive...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).

    a. For getting caught

    b. Bollocks

    c. Bollocks

    d. He caught it

    e. worst in G7
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Go back and read what I said, I said Labour voted for every compromise *except* Eustice's. Because that left the Irish border issue in limbo.
    All my opening paragraph reveals is that I thought that Brexit was a bad idea. I still think this. Your arrogant claim that I can therefore be dismissed is typical of Leavers' hubris, and is why you fanatics have steered us into this disastrous situation instead of trying to find a workable compromise that protected the GFA and our economy.
    Look I understand you are arguing from a position of profound ignorance on this but when you are in a hole you really should stop digging. Admit it. You were unwilling to accept any form of practical compromise just like most Labour MPs (and most of the rest of Parliament on all sides as well unfortunately). Trying to rewrite history like this to assuage their guilt is rather infantile.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    edited June 2022
    Applicant said:

    If you're calling someone who has been a supporter of EEA/EFTA - the only off-the-shelf compromise between membership and no deal - since longe before the referendum was called a "fanatic" then I rather suggest you should be looking in the mirror.

    It's clear that in the indicative votes Labour only supported EU membership or something which EU membership was the only way to get.

    Richard is one of the most consistent but relatively moderate opponents of the EU. As far as I can recall he has always favoured EFTA or some analogue of it. He doesn't appear to have changed his position at all. If people like him had set the direction for Brexit much of the bad blood and problems would never have occurred.

    FWIW I still think that long term we'll end up in EFTA or I Can't Believe It's Not EFTA! Although I do expect it to take a long time and probably several changes of government before we end up with the right people at the right time to get it over the line.
  • PaulSimonPaulSimon Posts: 34

    Quite amusing report here on how boozing Scots - faced with Sturgeon's minimum price for alcohol units policy - simply moved from cider to vodka, and cut down on food.

    More alky deaths than ever, to go along with Europe's worst performance on drug-related deaths.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/06/emily-carver-meanwhile-in-scotland-the-snp-bungles-schools-ferries-drugs-rail-and-now-minimum-alcohol-pricie.html

    And perennial nanny statist Jeremy Hunt seriously considered imposing this paternalistic nonsense on England, too. We dodged a bullet when he left the cabinet. Good thing he's never coming back, right? Right???

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6397675/jeremy-hunt-risks-pushing-away-voters-nanny-state-policies/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482

    Or we should just set up our own alternative to Horizon. The EU is not some science superpower, they don't even have any universities in the Top 50 as far as I know in any of the major international rankings.

    The UK, Israel, Switzerland and other comparable nations combined all have more more scientific development than the EU combined does. If the EU want to politicise science, then we should step away from the politics and concentrate on the science instead.
    "...should just..."

    That's just handwaving.
  • Nigelb said:

    "...should just..."

    That's just handwaving.
    Why is having a Plan B "just handwaving"?

    In life its generally pretty reasonable to have a Plan B, if Plan A doesn't work. The EU wants to use Horizon politically as a weapon, in which case walking away from it is perfectly rational.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    No, as set out they were impossible. Membership of the Customs Union requires full EU membership. The Labour proposal particularly was clearly for membership of The Customs Union not just 'a' customs union as they argued for UK input to EU third party trade agreements.
    Labour's proposal was for *a* customs union not membership of *the* customs union.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011

    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).

    I have my response from Robin Millar who refuses to say, at least Cairns told you his vote

    Anyway it hardly matters as the 148 will prevail
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Labour's proposal was for *a* customs union not membership of *the* customs union.
    The only customs union that would allow the UK to have a say on EU third party trade deals (which was explict in their proposal) would be 'The' Customs Union. It was typical political dishonesty to try and dress it up any other way. Something you are repeating now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    eek said:

    on that basis 92 is a VERY interesting election. On the one hand you have the seriously competent John Smith as shadow Chancellor let down by Neil Kinnock's image and on the other hand you have John Major and Norman Lamont
    You might not be right. I say might be because it’s a bit counterfactual - but polls and elections for years didn’t pick up on Kinnock image make labour unelectable, he did take a hammering in the press didn’t he? But John Smith who I hasn’t seen on video but looks cocky in pictures brought out a tax raising shadow budget during the campaign, that was a bit like handing the Tory’s the howitzers which blew the Labour chances away?

    We can’t rule out a very similar thing happening this time.

    PS did anyone watch Wes Streetings car crash in commons today. I don’t rate him at all, he was so rubbish today. If Streeting takes over from Starmer this summer Labour definitely lose. Starmer’s the best option they have from that front bench.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    edited June 2022
    Applicant said:

    That was always only one of the benefits. You seem to be confusing the justifications with the critics' misrepresentation.
    You really don't know the number of times I've had to explain to people that by separating off the fast train to XYZ you can now run 10-12 trains an hour on that route rather than the 4-6 that currently run on it as all the trains can progress along the track at the same speed

    One of the things the IRP is very quiet about is that yes you can have slightly faster trains on the to Leeds, York and Sheffield but the cost of that is reduced capacity on the line as a whole because the intervals between trains will need to be widened.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    Labour's proposal was for *a* customs union not membership of *the* customs union.
    And what does that mean? How does it differ? Is it not another example of a unicorn?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    Look I understand you are arguing from a position of profound ignorance on this but when you are in a hole you really should stop digging. Admit it. You were unwilling to accept any form of practical compromise just like most Labour MPs (and most of the rest of Parliament on all sides as well unfortunately). Trying to rewrite history like this to assuage their guilt is rather infantile.
    Delusional. Typical arrogant sneering Brexiteer. I wanted us to stay in the single market and resolve the Irish border problem through some kind of customs arrangement with the EU, precise form to be negotiated. In other words, compromise. It's what Labour MPs voted for. The Tories rejected it and we now have Johnson's shit deal that Johnson is trying to dismantle and Tories now claim to hate having voted for it.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Labour's proposal was for *a* customs union not membership of *the* customs union.
    Three posts up in the quote: And the Labour proposal was specifically for membership of The Customs Union because they said they wanted to have say over EU trade deals. They were either profoundly ignorant or profoundly dishonest.

    A customs union + A say over EU trade deals = The Customs Union.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    And what does that mean? How does it differ? Is it not another example of a unicorn?
    If so then unicorns exist in Turkey.
  • If so then unicorns exist in Turkey.
    No, Turkey doesn't have a say in the EU's customs agreements.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585
    glw said:

    Richard is one of the most consistent but relatively moderate opponents of the EU. As far as I can recall he has always favoured EFTA or some analogue of it. He doesn't appear to have changed his position at all. If people like him had set the direction for Brexit much of the bad blood and problems would never have occurred.

    FWIW I still think that long term we'll end up in EFTA or I Can't Believe It's Not EFTA! Although I do expect it to take a long time and probably several changes of government before we end up with the right people at the right time to get it over the line.
    I remain confused that having a free trade agreement is not facilitating trade. I gather this is down to the checking of forms, because we have not agreed to align to EU standards, even though we are aligned with EU standards.

    I can't shake the impression that both sides are game playing to an extent. We could at a stroke agree to align to the EU standard or higher. And the EU could actually sort trusted trader status much more widely to help in NI.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Dirty old fat arse friend of many in Hollywood Harvey Weinstein to be prosecuted in UK for 2 counts of indecent assault
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,183

    Answer B is utter fantasy 🤭
    No he assured me Boris Johnson after rigorous investigation did nothing negative of note. He didn't explain away the cake incident, but I suspect it too trivial to be of concern. I have suggested he might be taking his constituents for mugs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,525

    Serendipitously this just popped up on my twitter feed. The photo may be misattributed, ie there were Koreans that ended up fighting in Europe but this could be a Georgian conscripted into the Ostruppen rather than Yang Kyoungjong (who has also had doubts expressed about his record of fighting for the IJA, the Red Army and the Wehrmacht).
    Whatever, to be born Korean in the first half of the C20th (or subsequently for many of them) was definitely not to win the lottery of life.


    He doesn't look Georgian.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585

    If so then unicorns exist in Turkey.
    Which does not answer the question. How does 'a' differ from 'the'? Does it impose restrictions on deal done elsewhere, for instance? What are the limitations/downsides (because there will be).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Applicant said:

    Three posts up in the quote: And the Labour proposal was specifically for membership of The Customs Union because they said they wanted to have say over EU trade deals. They were either profoundly ignorant or profoundly dishonest.

    A customs union + A say over EU trade deals = The Customs Union.
    That's your interpretation. We couldn't have been in *the* CU because only EU members can be in the CU and we have left the EU. Labour's proposal was to negotiate a kind of associate membership with some say over things, to protect the Irish border. Was that feasible? Who knows, it was never tried. Otherwise what is the solution on Ireland? Clearly not the deal we have, since the government say it doesn't work, even though they negotiated it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482

    Why is having a Plan B "just handwaving"?

    In life its generally pretty reasonable to have a Plan B, if Plan A doesn't work. The EU wants to use Horizon politically as a weapon, in which case walking away from it is perfectly rational.
    "...we should just set up our own alternative to Horizon..." is not a plan.
    It is the vaguest of aspirations, and doesn't mean very much at all.

    That is why I called it handwaving.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349

    I remain confused that having a free trade agreement is not facilitating trade. I gather this is down to the checking of forms, because we have not agreed to align to EU standards, even though we are aligned with EU standards.

    I can't shake the impression that both sides are game playing to an extent. We could at a stroke agree to align to the EU standard or higher. And the EU could actually sort trusted trader status much more widely to help in NI.

    I totally agree. There is bloody-mindedness on both sides. I find it incomprehensible that it should be so, as right now the EU and UK have a much bigger problem to deal with, and if the war in Ukraine drags on into the winter as looks all too probably we are going to face a real crunch when the Russians do exactly what people were warned of and turn off the gas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    I have at last had my response from Alun Cairns.

    He has explained his support for Boris Johnson.

    a. Boris Johnson apologised.

    b Sue Gray and the Met exonorated Johnson personally from direct blame

    c. Johnson is winning the war for Ukraine ( my embellishment, but the gist is not wrong).

    d. Johnson's Covid performance.

    e. Johnson's economic performance.

    And there we have it five reasons why an ebullient Johnson believes his tenure as PM is in its infancy

    Glory be!

    P S. I responded to Mr Cairns by expressing that my Conservative wife hopes he becomes an ex-MP at the next General Election for his spinelessness (my wife's description).

    e just seems bizarre given the situation.
    But it appears to be the chosen narrative.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    Leon said:

    Or Sir Beer Korma needed nothing of the kind. Boris bleeding out but still in office suite Labour perfectly
    That’s probably the truth of it. Starmer stayed clear because having a discredited clown continuing in office suits him just fine. And he could rely on Blackwood coming after to try and twist the knife, anyhow.

    Starmer didn’t hit any targets with his NHS questions, except for scoring one good soundbite, but he probably reckons that this doesn’t matter too much right now.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    Which does not answer the question. How does 'a' differ from 'the'? Does it impose restrictions on deal done elsewhere, for instance? What are the limitations/downsides (because there will be).
    Of course there are downsides. My preferred solution would have been to stay in the EU. Since that was not an option, the question is which imperfect deal would have been better. Clearly not the deal we have as we are trying to tear it up.
    The point is that there were compromises on offer that preserved a close relationship with the EU and protected the GFA while leaving the EU. Labour voted for those, the Tories voted against them.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Of course there are downsides. My preferred solution would have been to stay in the EU. Since that was not an option, the question is which imperfect deal would have been better. Clearly not the deal we have as we are trying to tear it up.
    The point is that there were compromises on offer that preserved a close relationship with the EU and protected the GFA while leaving the EU. Labour voted for those, the Tories voted against them.
    Labour voted for EU membership or something which could only be achieved by EU membership.

    I presume your reluctance to admit this is because the architect of the Labour position was SKS, the very man you now want to be PM.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Delusional. Typical arrogant sneering Brexiteer. I wanted us to stay in the single market and resolve the Irish border problem through some kind of customs arrangement with the EU, precise form to be negotiated. In other words, compromise. It's what Labour MPs voted for. The Tories rejected it and we now have Johnson's shit deal that Johnson is trying to dismantle and Tories now claim to hate having voted for it.
    Hahah. Every time you reply you show how little you actually know or understand.

    If you wanted us to stay in the Single Market then the EFTA/EEA proposal was exactly that. The Single Market and the Customs Union are two entirely separate things. Which is why EFTA members can be part of the Single Market but not the Customs Union.

    Most Labour MPs rejected compromise at every turn just as most of the Tories did. Trying to claim one side was on the side of the Angels in this is profoundly dumb when the record is there for all to see.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    The only customs union that would allow the UK to have a say on EU third party trade deals (which was explict in their proposal) would be 'The' Customs Union. It was typical political dishonesty to try and dress it up any other way. Something you are repeating now.
    Or the UK and EU could have negotiated a new customs union between the UK and EU that gave the UK some say. That should have been possible given that we always hold all the cards in these negotiations.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Or the UK and EU could have negotiated a new customs union between the UK and EU that gave the UK some say. That should have been possible given that we always hold all the cards in these negotiations.
    Almost anything might have been negotiable, if only "no deal" had been left on the table.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    Hahah. Every time you reply you show how little you actually know or understand.

    If you wanted us to stay in the Single Market then the EFTA/EEA proposal was exactly that. The Single Market and the Customs Union are two entirely separate things. Which is why EFTA members can be part of the Single Market but not the Customs Union.

    Most Labour MPs rejected compromise at every turn just as most of the Tories did. Trying to claim one side was on the side of the Angels in this is profoundly dumb when the record is there for all to see.
    You have unilaterally decided that a customs arrangement with the EU means EU membership, despite a clear precedent of a country (Turkey) that is in a customs union with the EU but not in the EU. That is bizarre. And you have no solution to the Irish border problem.
    Labour MPs voted for a number of compromises which had a solution to the Irish border. Tories voted against compromise at every turn. To say anything else is just lying.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,690
    ..

    Or we should just set up our own alternative to Horizon. The EU is not some science superpower, they don't even have any universities in the Top 50 as far as I know in any of the major international rankings.

    The UK, Israel, Switzerland and other comparable nations combined all have more more scientific development than the EU combined does. If the EU want to politicise science, then we should step away from the politics and concentrate on the science instead.
    Quite.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,243

    Or the UK and EU could have negotiated a new customs union between the UK and EU that gave the UK some say. That should have been possible given that we always hold all the cards in these negotiations.
    We never held all the cards. I deal with realities, not pipe dreams. You are more interested in defending your beloved party than in finding an actual solution to these issues.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153

    This is not how most Irish people think about NATO:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/06/08/ireland-would-not-need-referendum-to-join-nato-says-taoiseach/

    Ireland would not need to hold a referendum to join NATO as it is a policy decision of the government, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said.

    It's a fact that NATO membership would not require a constitutional amendment, and so wouldnot require a referendum. However, there is very unlikely to be a majority in the Dail for NATO membership.

    It's simply not the case that every contentious decision in a democracy requires a referendum. Democratic decisions can be taken by Parliamentary representatives.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,585
    Nigelb said:

    "...we should just set up our own alternative to Horizon..." is not a plan.
    It is the vaguest of aspirations, and doesn't mean very much at all.

    That is why I called it handwaving.
    Horizon is classic EU - set up for big, multi-centre, collaborative grants. They can be effective, but a lot of the money gets spent on non-science (e.g. typically there will be managers paid to sort out meetings, travel etc. Not saying big grants are an issue, but often smaller, more focused ones (one location) are better.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    New thread.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    We never held all the cards. I deal with realities, not pipe dreams. You are more interested in defending your beloved party than in finding an actual solution to these issues.
    I have literally provided a solution: Efta plus a customs arrangement similar to Turkey's to allow for frictionless trade GB/NI/EU. This is the compromise that Labour voted for. It isn't perfect but it protects the GFA, protects trade and honours the referendum. What is your solution? And what compromise did the Tories vote for?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    The record shows that Labour mostly *did* vote for compromises; indeed they were proposals put forward by various Tories.

    The problem was that not enough Tories agreed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,223
    Carnyx said:

    This is the third time we've had this on PB. The overall benefit was there across the population - it is just the out and out alkies who are being focussed on for political effect and political bias.

    Of course, the likes of Lord-to-be Frost campaigned bitterly against this pretty mild law (when he was i/c the Scots Whisky Federation, almost none of which drink was affected at all).
    Yoons, constantly gaining amusement and succour from alcoholism and drug deaths. It's what keeps the poor souls going.
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