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MRP poll finds Tories losing 256 seats facing LAB/LD/GRN pact – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    32m
    Tory MP Roger Gale tells Times Radio PM should quit over "damning" new pics.

    "It's absolutely clear there was a party, that he attended it, that he was raising a toast to glass one of his colleagues. Therefore, he misled us from the despatch box. Honorably there is one answer".

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1528802315532214272

    The next 10 days are critical for conservative mps as their actions or otherwise will most certainly have a bearing on GE24
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,474
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh, I agree.

    It is embarrassing.

    And there's no real excuse for it. But it's not that uncommon. St John's Wood - number of good restaurants... zero. Richmond/Kew... one. Primrose Hill... zero.

    My apartment on Shaftesbury Avenue has a dozen excellent restaurants within a five minute walk.
    Primrose Hill has Odette's which is pretty good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,379
    Leon said:

    You’re half right. i did put it in to provoke Nats, tho it is also true, to an extent. I’ve never eaten well in Edinburgh - to me it has been like Hampstead. Wealthy, beautiful, full of tourists, not great food. Not terrible just not great

    Sunderland is interesting. Could you not find decent ethnic food? They are usually the saviour of British cities. Wherever you are, you can generally get decent Indian, and probably Chinese and Thai as well. This is no small thing. It means you can eat well almost anywhere in the UK, it just won’t be “British” food
    There's a really excellent Indian in South End Green (which is sort of Hampstead).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    This from the BBC is a fair comment piece

    Analysis box by Helen Catt, political correspondent

    There have always been two big questions at the heart of 'Partygate': Did the prime minister himself break the law and has he been completely candid about what he knew about law-breaking in Downing Street?

    Responding to these latest pictures, No 10 is pretty bullish.

    It says that the police would have seen these photos and didn't fine him.

    On the second point though, things may get a little trickier for Boris Johnson.

    These pictures show him at an event for which somebody else was fined so can his insistence that he thought all the rules had been followed hold?

    And there are two big audiences which really matter: MPs and the public.

    There will be huge scrutiny of exactly what the prime minister said to Parliament about this and whether or not it was misleading.

    The outcome of that could have a very swift impact on his prime ministerial future.

    Beyond that though, pictures like these pose a potentially longer-term issue.

    While there will be plenty of people who won't be bothered by them, the risk is that others will be and more may lose trust in Boris Johnson.

    I think everyone who ever was foolish enough to ever have trust in Boris Johnson, and could lose it has done so. There are dozens on here.
    Then there are those who never will.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,518
    Intriguing development...





  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    32m
    Tory MP Roger Gale tells Times Radio PM should quit over "damning" new pics.

    "It's absolutely clear there was a party, that he attended it, that he was raising a toast to glass one of his colleagues. Therefore, he misled us from the despatch box. Honorably there is one answer".

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1528802315532214272

    He doesn't have any honour, so there's no point appealing to it.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why so tolerant, if that happened to someone you know?

    You are right about "disturbed" animals though. There is a massive scam going on where there's a thriving and highly profitable second hand dog market, only buying a used dog is rebadged as "re-homing" a "rescue" dog for a "re-homing fee". The reality is, the dog has been dumped because it is dangerous/shitty/uncontrollable and badly in need of a bullet, but the suckers buying the things think they are acquiring Really Lovely People status as part of the deal.
    I'm simply not prepared to advocate the mass extermination of pet dogs because some of them are bloody horrible, that's all.

    Nor would I go so far as to assume that animals that end up in shelters are all awful. Many dogs become separated from the owners because the owner can no longer afford to keep them, isn't capable or perhaps isn't allowed to keep them (common with older people forced to go into care homes,) or has died. Where I would agree with you is that all these soppy charities that promise never to put a healthy dog down are very irresponsible. Some dogs are dumped because they're dangerous and unmanageable, and need to be destroyed before they have the chance to cause serious harm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533

    I went to college in Oldham. A town which has a succession of state-named chicken shacks.

    Kansas Fried Chicken
    Montana Fried Chicken
    Georgia Fried Chicken
    Virginia Fried Chicken
    Michigan Fried Chicken
    Florida Fried Chicken
    California Crispy Chicken
    Nebraska Fried Chicken

    Plus Dallas Fried Chicken
    Orlando Fried Chicken
    Toronto Fried Chicken

    Almost all of which are on the same town centre street.
    Not a single Kentucky Fried Chicken though?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232
    Evening all. Whats going on 'ere then?

    Hilarious fantasy politics header from OGH that is never going to happen, but does show potential of a more tacit pact for targetting and campaigning.

    If Johnson is sober, he should be worried.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028

    Partygate though is example of how he trashed brands.

    The Police closing the investigation was certainly a big moment, as Save Big Dog had it parked into long grass up to that moment. The question for the Tories now is, does it remain “partygate”, mostly owned by Boris, meaning a new leader and administration installed by August can bat away more photo’s leaked in September. October. November. Etc. Or, by keeping Big Dog does this now morph into something more serious. I’ll explain what I mean. That famous ‘Partygate Heat Map’ of voters views, with the giant word LIAR in the middle, if liar is replaced by WHITEWASH, it doesn’t pass with Johnson’s vonking, the damage will hang more specifically on what the TORY PARTY done in power during covid.

    My argument is this can now morph beyond a Boris crisis, more election threat even without Boris to the Tories in the coming general election and even ones after that.

    Many if not most Tory MPs today would own the Partygate mess and step down if PM, as many previous And hopefully future Tory leaders would own Partygate and step down, putting Country and it’s people, and their Grand Old Party before their personal ambition. It is no longer in the interests of the Tory Party to keep Johnson, rather than choose a new leader and start putting this behind them.

    Anyone disagree with that?
    Not really but then who knows with conservative mps
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Good of the photographer to provide the perfect campaign poster for the Lib Dems !
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    You simply do not have evidence Boris organised it, and the BBC did suggest he popped in during work for 10 minutes to toast a leaving colleague
    I do not. The reporters who reported it do.

    When you post what has been reported you stand by it. I am applying your methodology to what has been reported here.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    There's a really excellent Indian in South End Green (which is sort of Hampstead).
    The Stag is pretty good for artery-clogging fare, or was.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Knives out for Phatboi.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    I went to college in Oldham. A town which has a succession of state-named chicken shacks.

    Kansas Fried Chicken
    Montana Fried Chicken
    Georgia Fried Chicken
    Virginia Fried Chicken
    Michigan Fried Chicken
    Florida Fried Chicken
    California Crispy Chicken
    Nebraska Fried Chicken

    Plus Dallas Fried Chicken
    Orlando Fried Chicken
    Toronto Fried Chicken

    Almost all of which are on the same town centre street.
    Am intrigued now as to what makes California crispy?
    Do they have a secret recipe or summat?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533
    Foxy said:

    Evening all. Whats going on 'ere then?

    Hilarious fantasy politics header from OGH that is never going to happen, but does show potential of a more tacit pact for targetting and campaigning.

    If Johnson is sober, he should be worried.

    Would apparently be the first time in a while.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,518

    The next 10 days are critical for conservative mps as their actions or otherwise will most certainly have a bearing on GE24
    They should bear in mind that the photo will be on every Lab leaflet in 2024.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022

    I do not. The reporters who reported it do.

    When you post what has been reported you stand by it. I am applying your methodology to what has been reported here.
    Big G’s methodology is to breathlessly relay news favourable to Boris while repeating that he of course wants him to go.

    Cakery.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    I think I am less offended by Johnson's behaviour than the Met. Police intervening and then taking virtually no action against Johnson and no action against Case. Either by cock-up or conspiracy their action saved Johnson.

    Those who cooperated with Gray were banged to rights, those who didn't got off scott free. On what did the Met. spend their £460,000?
    You are still posting this defamatory crap about the police, but I am not aware you answered my question. Do you have evidence the police saw todays photos? Downing Street merely say the police had access to them, whilst the police silent.

    Secondly, I am not calling you out as a liar when you posted this “ I believe Starmer did technically breach the rules from the evidence I have read and will get a fixed penalty notice. The evidence is they had their meal, with a beer after work, they were not socially distanced and there were too many people at the event.” but I am asking you to share with us your evidence they had booze together after work, by how many people they were over what was clearly stated in the rules, and there was no social distancing at all as required.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028

    Tonight's Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    It will be interesting to see if this changes after todays revelations

    Westminster Voting Intention (22 May):

    Labour 39% (–)
    Conservative 33% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
    Green 5% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (-1)
    Other 3% (–)

    Changes +/- 18 May
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232
    edited May 2022

    I went to college in Oldham. A town which has a succession of state-named chicken shacks.

    Kansas Fried Chicken
    Montana Fried Chicken
    Georgia Fried Chicken
    Virginia Fried Chicken
    Michigan Fried Chicken
    Florida Fried Chicken
    California Crispy Chicken
    Nebraska Fried Chicken

    Plus Dallas Fried Chicken
    Orlando Fried Chicken
    Toronto Fried Chicken

    Almost all of which are on the same town centre street.
    Yes, but aren't such establishments just fronts for nefarious activities and money laundering? So a lot like the City...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,623
    Time for the Tory MPs to grow a spine. His position is untenable. Will they do what they need to do. Of course not.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844

    You are still posting this defamatory crap about the police, but I am not aware you answered my question. Do you have evidence the police saw todays photos? Downing Street merely say the police had access to them, whilst the police silent.

    Secondly, I am not calling you out as a liar when you posted this “ I believe Starmer did technically breach the rules from the evidence I have read and will get a fixed penalty notice. The evidence is they had their meal, with a beer after work, they were not socially distanced and there were too many people at the event.” but I am asking you to share with us your evidence they had booze together after work, by how many people they were over what was clearly stated in the rules, and there was no social distancing at all as required.
    "Defamatory Crap" my arse. The establishment looks after itself, always has done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533
    Taz said:

    Time for the Tory MPs to grow a spine. His position is untenable. Will they do what they need to do. Of course not.

    That time was quite six months ago, after Oswestry. They deserve him, and what he will cause them.

    Just a pity the rest of us have to suffer too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,518

    Adam Wagner
    @AdamWagner1
    Replying to
    @MatthewStadlen
    and
    @PippaCrerar
    It wouldn't matter that he was in his home in November 2020. That loophole was closed on 31 May 2020
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028

    Big G’s methodology is to breathlessly relay news favourable to Boris while repeating that he of course wants him to go.

    Cakery.
    Not at all

    I do try to be honest and fair and most certainly not tribal

    I genuinely do not care if Boris stays or goes but his mps should
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,345

    Partygate though is example of how he trashed brands.

    The Police closing the investigation was certainly a big moment, as Save Big Dog had it parked into long grass up to that moment. The question for the Tories now is, does it remain “partygate”, mostly owned by Boris, meaning a new leader and administration installed by August can bat away more photo’s leaked in September. October. November. Etc. Or, by keeping Big Dog does this now morph into something more serious. I’ll explain what I mean. That famous ‘Partygate Heat Map’ of voters views, with the giant word LIAR in the middle, if liar is replaced by WHITEWASH, it doesn’t pass with Johnson’s vonking, the damage will hang more specifically on what the TORY PARTY done in power during covid.

    My argument is this can now morph beyond a Boris crisis, more election threat even without Boris to the Tories in the coming general election and even ones after that.

    Many if not most Tory MPs today would own the Partygate mess and step down if PM, as many previous And hopefully future Tory leaders would own Partygate and step down, putting Country and it’s people, and their Grand Old Party before their personal ambition. It is no longer in the interests of the Tory Party to keep Johnson, rather than choose a new leader and start putting this behind them.

    Anyone disagree with that?
    Yes and ho, as my avatar was forced to put it.

    It's definitely in the interests of the Conservative Party (as well as the country) that Johnson goes. But it's not entirely in their interests that Conservative MPs make him go. After all, it will be a painful business. Some currently senior Conservatives know that no possible future leader will keep them on. Others know that they will look pretty silly, having gone to so much trouble to put him into office. And there's no sign of anyone out there who won't lose at the next election. So it's really tempting to procrastinate, hope someone else who do the dirty work, even if every day makes things worse.

    Maybe the time has come for the Macmillan solution. Find a tame doctor to tell Bozza that he's got some terrible medical problem, the only solution is complete rest, preferably in a warmer climate than Britain has to offer...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533

    Yes and ho, as my avatar was forced to put it.

    It's definitely in the interests of the Conservative Party (as well as the country) that Johnson goes. But it's not entirely in their interests that Conservative MPs make him go. After all, it will be a painful business. Some currently senior Conservatives know that no possible future leader will keep them on. Others know that they will look pretty silly, having gone to so much trouble to put him into office. And there's no sign of anyone out there who won't lose at the next election. So it's really tempting to procrastinate, hope someone else who do the dirty work, even if every day makes things worse.

    Maybe the time has come for the Macmillan solution. Find a tame doctor to tell Bozza that he's got some terrible medical problem, the only solution is complete rest, preferably in a warmer climate than Britain has to offer...
    He caught Covid, and isn't known as Shagger for no reason. What are the odds he gets Monkeypox?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232

    They should bear in mind that the photo will be on every Lab leaflet in 2024.
    Nah, everyone is sick of talking about covid. Far better for Labour leaflets to establish a policy direction. Everyone knows Johnson is a liar with a drink in his hand, no one will need reminding.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,554

    Yes and ho, as my avatar was forced to put it.

    You mean you're not really Peter Mannion MP? Christ, that's a disappointing revelation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,379
    Omnium said:

    Primrose Hill has Odette's which is pretty good.
    Yes, it's decent - just as Delicatessen in Hampstead is pretty decent.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Am hearing more photos definitely to come as part of the Sue Gray report….
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1528815423885541379
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,700
    .
    kinabalu said:

    Have you patented a way of preventing the 4th mouthful being just too cooled down and with an odd taste now coming through?

    Because that would be truly special. Unique in fact.
    No - trade secret.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Blimey. Even Fabricant and Dorries haven’t had a tweet about this one
    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1528815543741980674
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,474
    edited May 2022

    Yes and ho, as my avatar was forced to put it.

    It's definitely in the interests of the Conservative Party (as well as the country) that Johnson goes. But it's not entirely in their interests that Conservative MPs make him go. After all, it will be a painful business. Some currently senior Conservatives know that no possible future leader will keep them on. Others know that they will look pretty silly, having gone to so much trouble to put him into office. And there's no sign of anyone out there who won't lose at the next election. So it's really tempting to procrastinate, hope someone else who do the dirty work, even if every day makes things worse.

    Maybe the time has come for the Macmillan solution. Find a tame doctor to tell Bozza that he's got some terrible medical problem, the only solution is complete rest, preferably in a warmer climate than Britain has to offer...
    Boris is doing a pretty good job at the moment. He's rather repelling the tide of socialist policy dressed up in blue that seems to be pervading the Tory party. He does need to go, but until someone else starts to make a case for sensible Tory leadership of a hopefully more sensible Tory party he's the best man for the job.

    Edit: And this is definitely not the Steve Bakers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,518

    The Secret Barrister
    @BarristerSecret
    ·
    2h
    Think of how many thousands of people desperately wanted to “just” raise a glass to loved ones they had lost; loved ones who had died alone.

    But they didn’t. Because
    @BorisJohnson
    told them they couldn’t.

    And they followed his rules.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    One wonders what keeps Roger Gale from crossing the floor?
    I mean, he's 78 and not much to lose tbh.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    On Topic. I don’t believe tactical voting will reduce Tories to 100 seats if there was an election tomorrow nor do I believe there will be a pact between Lib Dem and green and Labour as formal as the Lib Dems had with the greens to withdraw candidates. But does tactical voting really need that chummy and organised to prove effective? Probably more importantly, if you are a Lib Dem voter, does Starmer and fear of his government frighten you, ditto if you are remainer, what are your options for bashing the Brexit Government.

    What the people in the header have done is scientifically prove, anyone saying Boris is safe because labours lead is only five points are bullshitters - because tactical voting is a thing now and Lab Lib Grn combined on 57 whilst Tory Rfm on 35 is real 22 point deficit that if it plays in tactical terms can make five point Lab con deficits into something far worse than it sounds on election nights.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    They should bear in mind that the photo will be on every Lab leaflet in 2024.
    Is that how you show you're a government in waiting?

    They will do that only if they're fighting a guerrilla/spoiler campaign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232
    ydoethur said:

    He caught Covid, and isn't known as Shagger for no reason. What are the odds he gets Monkeypox?
    Any entrants for the Monkeypox sweepstake?

    My punt is on Gove. Nailed on...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,289
    edited May 2022

    “ You may be right and Johnson was not at a party and therefore he did not mislead Parliament. The Met agree with you.”

    I am challenging you on that Pete. I am asking you to supply evidence to support you claim the police saw these photos before leaked today. All we have so far is Downing Street insisting the police had “access” to the photo’s… and police silence. You currently have zero evidence to support that claim in your post.
    The understanding on ITV News was that similar pictures of this event were enclosed in Gray's evidence to the Met.

    Ruth Davidson and Steve "Hardman" Baker are not taken in but Barty and BigG. have taken the bait

    The Met investigation was a whitewash from start to finish. I am very skeptical that of the only two events Johnson attended one resulted in a fine for Sunak as well as Johnson. Bad behaviour, as we have read on here tonight is baked into Johnson's polling but the FPN skewered Sunak.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Foxy said:

    Any entrants for the Monkeypox sweepstake?

    My punt is on Gove. Nailed on...
    Speaking of punts, nipplegate went quiet quickly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533
    Foxy said:

    Any entrants for the Monkeypox sweepstake?

    My punt is on Gove. Nailed on...
    Really? I thought the suggestion was he did the nailing...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,345
    kle4 said:

    You mean you're not really Peter Mannion MP? Christ, that's a disappointing revelation.
    I like to think that he walked over No Deal Brexit, a la Ken Clarke.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    Is that how you show you're a government in waiting?

    They will do that only if they're fighting a guerrilla/spoiler campaign.
    Paper leaflets? Surely the next GE will be even more digital than the last?

    Has any UK politician been a Melechon Style hologram yet?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,799

    The Stag is pretty good for artery-clogging fare, or was.
    Risk of Liam Gallagher there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232

    Speaking of punts, nipplegate went quiet quickly.
    That passed me by. What on earth is nipplegate?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,533
    Foxy said:

    That passed me by. What on earth is nipplegate?
    When everything goes tits up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028

    The understanding on ITV News was that similar pictures of this event were enclosed in Gray's evidence to the Met.

    Ruth Davidson and Steve "Hardman" Baker are not taken in but Barty and BigG. have taken the bait

    The Met investigation was a whitewash from start to finish. I am very skeptical that of the only two events Johnson attended one resulted in a fine for Sunak as well as Johnson. Bad behaviour, as we have read on here tonight is baked into Johnson's polling but the FPN skewered Sunak.
    I simply try to be fair but I really do not care about Boris and it is upto his mps and if they decide to remover him then good on them

    I have already text my mp saying Boris should go
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232
    ydoethur said:

    When everything goes tits up.
    So somebody boobed?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,625
    Foxy said:

    That passed me by. What on earth is nipplegate?
    Yet more allegations about a Tory mp and sexual assault/misdemeanour, this time potentially involving drugging
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Your regular reminder that the gov’s initial choice to run this inquiry wasn’t Sue Gray but Simon Case, who’s now expected to be heavily criticised and then sacrificed to save Johnson. They never wanted an independent investigation to begin with - why would they want one now?
    https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1528697233675272192
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,799

    Not at all

    I do try to be honest and fair and most certainly not tribal

    I genuinely do not care if Boris stays or goes but his mps should
    Hang on you've moved! Before it was you wanted him gone otherwise your Con vote was at risk.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    kinabalu said:

    Risk of Liam Gallagher there.
    That’s true of North London generally.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,474
    Foxy said:

    So somebody boobed?
    Do try to keep abreast of developments.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    edited May 2022
    Calling this 'partygate' and waffling on about parties suits Boris very well. I don't think any of these events were 'parties' in the everyday sense of the word. If they were, they were pretty rubbish.

    Surely the discourse should be about 'illegal gatherings' rather than 'parties'. If the gatherings BJ attended were illegal under the Covid rules at the relevant time, then he's guilty at best of lying. It doesn't really matter if they were/weren't parties, or if there was alcohol present (but not involved).

    (I'm really pissed of with myself now, as I'd made a vow not to comment on the tedium of xxxxxgate ever again).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    I don’t really see any risk to him from photos of an event the police have seen and didn’t fine him for to be honest - only if he withheld them. As far as I can see those saying he should go are the ones who always have, and his defenders are awaiting the line to take.

    Re: Lying to Parliament, the public just don’t care, no matter how much we on here think they should. The long term damage of this all comes down to whether enough people forgive him this when he shoves cash at them in a few weeks as part of a “non-emergency Budget” emergency Budget.

    I remain of the option that if cost of living impacts due to Ukraine can be unwound in a few months (hopefully with a Ukrainian victory) then he’s odds on to win the next election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,232

    Yet more allegations about a Tory mp and sexual assault/misdemeanour, this time potentially involving drugging
    But nipplegate?!?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955


    The Secret Barrister
    @BarristerSecret
    ·
    2h
    Think of how many thousands of people desperately wanted to “just” raise a glass to loved ones they had lost; loved ones who had died alone.

    But they didn’t. Because
    @BorisJohnson
    told them they couldn’t.

    And they followed his rules.

    Indeed, I think the rules were utterly stupid and did far more harm than good.

    But Boris was the one who was responsible for them, and for that he deserves to be hung by them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    dixiedean said:

    One wonders what keeps Roger Gale from crossing the floor?
    I mean, he's 78 and not much to lose tbh.

    Very likely that he will have strong personal relationships with people in his local Conservative Association, and among MPs on the benches around him. In the end, the personal is political. It will be a contest between whether he can leave those people behind, or can continue to look people who aren't in the party in the eye and justify still being in the party with Johnson as the leader.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,812
    Omnium said:

    Boris is doing a pretty good job at the moment. He's rather repelling the tide of socialist policy dressed up in blue that seems to be pervading the Tory party. He does need to go, but until someone else starts to make a case for sensible Tory leadership of a hopefully more sensible Tory party he's the best man for the job.

    Edit: And this is definitely not the Steve Bakers.
    I don't really think that's true. I think his Government (whatever his own true feelings are, which we never learn) seems to be exactly as you describe. Boris just doesn't take the flak for it because every now and again he declares something vaguely commonsensical, eg. that 18 stone hulks of testosterone with balls like melons shouldn't compete in women's shinty, and Telegraph readers get all excited. It's pretty thin gruel really isn't it?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,762
    kle4 said:

    Very good, but you should also add "I was so angry, all memory of the event and my own fury was erased from my mind".
    Just looking at @RochdalePioneers quote from Boris above

    As he told the Commons: “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”.

    Even if the events were parties AND Boris *knew* they were parties that quote is not necessarily a lie.

    All he is saying is he was “repeatedly assured” about something at a given point in time.

    Is that really the killer quote / smoking gun?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Hang on you've moved! Before it was you wanted him gone otherwise your Con vote was at risk.
    All part of the Big G shimmy and shuffle.

    By 2024 it will be, “with a heavy heart I must vote for Boris to raise taxation on working people to 90 pennies in the pound because Keir has questions to answer about whether it was a korma or a masala, as suggested by James Delingpole’s son in the Daily Express”.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028
    kinabalu said:

    Hang on you've moved! Before it was you wanted him gone otherwise your Con vote was at risk.
    I have text my mp tonight saying he should go
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,700


    The Secret Barrister
    @BarristerSecret
    ·
    2h
    Think of how many thousands of people desperately wanted to “just” raise a glass to loved ones they had lost; loved ones who had died alone.

    But they didn’t. Because
    @BorisJohnson
    told them they couldn’t.

    And they followed his rules.

    At the time of this ‘event’, I believe the rule limited meetings to two people ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Foxy said:

    But nipplegate?!?
    There are allegations of unprovoked nipple licking.

    It has suddenly disappeared, so I assume it has fallen under a super-injunction or something and we won’t find out until 2072.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    When full Gray report out, the Met will have to explain:
    Why they fined the PM for one 9 min event instigated by others (🎂), but did not fine him for a 9 min event he instigated (🍾)
    One answer? 🎂 fine seen as over zealous, so overreacted + caved to pressure from PM's lawyer?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1528819099475877888
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    Foxy said:

    Any entrants for the Monkeypox sweepstake?

    My punt is on Gove. Nailed on...
    That is because as a doctor you know this isn’t so much a sexually transmitted disease as a intimately transmitted disease, so there’s certain social groups and behaviour more at risk, at this time? A recently single man rumour has it is a bit AC/DC considering his boss calls him Jon bom govi.
    I have a partner, so pleased to see me again yesterday she changed plans to go into office today to WFH 😉
    But six years ago when I first came to college in London, and I was going to bed with any lady who would let me touch her, a rise in Monkey pox would make me think a bit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,799
    Omnium said:

    Primrose Hill has Odette's which is pretty good.
    It is. Also, with the Crepe Van, yes there's a queue but you know you're doing it with good progressive people and you can risk a conversation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    All part of the Big G shimmy and shuffle.

    By 2024 it will be, “with a heavy heart I must vote for Boris to raise taxation on working people to 90 pennies in the pound because Keir has questions to answer about whether it was a korma or a masala, as suggested by James Delingpole’s son in the Daily Express”.
    Yes. He's a good example of the type of Tory 2019 voter who is telling pollsters they don't know who they will vote for, but will find some justification for returning to the fold at the next GE. Unless Starmer can do something a bit more impressive and win them over.

    This is why we should expect swingback as things stand.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,812

    There are allegations of unprovoked nipple licking.

    It has suddenly disappeared, so I assume it has fallen under a super-injunction or something and we won’t find out until 2072.
    Listen, when you're thirsty you're thirsty.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Scott_xP said:

    When full Gray report out, the Met will have to explain:
    Why they fined the PM for one 9 min event instigated by others (🎂), but did not fine him for a 9 min event he instigated (🍾)
    One answer? 🎂 fine seen as over zealous, so overreacted + caved to pressure from PM's lawyer?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1528819099475877888

    From what I have seen, a great many of the fines nationwide have fallen apart in court because the police were being overzealous around what constituted a “reasonable” excuse compared to the view a court (and definitely a jury) would take.

    The key lesson we should all learn is that the rules were stupid and FTPs should rarely be used.

    Doesn’t let Boris and co off the hook thought. Lawmaker/breaker is always an issue.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Hooray for the PB Fantasy football league winner..... :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,028

    All part of the Big G shimmy and shuffle.

    By 2024 it will be, “with a heavy heart I must vote for Boris to raise taxation on working people to 90 pennies in the pound because Keir has questions to answer about whether it was a korma or a masala, as suggested by James Delingpole’s son in the Daily Express”.
    July this year will resolve Starmer issue, the one you tried to close down with your personal insults which you just cannot avoid

    2024 is wide open for my vote though not with Plaid
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,700

    The understanding on ITV News was that similar pictures of this event were enclosed in Gray's evidence to the Met.

    Ruth Davidson and Steve "Hardman" Baker are not taken in but Barty and BigG. have taken the bait

    The Met investigation was a whitewash from start to finish. I am very skeptical that of the only two events Johnson attended one resulted in a fine for Sunak as well as Johnson. Bad behaviour, as we have read on here tonight is baked into Johnson's polling but the FPN skewered Sunak.
    It’s at least a credible hypothesis that the Met investigation was a deliberate whitewash.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    That’s true of North London generally.
    Yet another reason to stay south of the river.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,625

    Calling this 'partygate' and waffling on about parties suits Boris very well. I don't think any of these events were 'parties' in the everyday sense of the word. If they were, they were pretty rubbish.

    Surely the discourse should be about 'illegal gatherings' rather than 'parties'. If the gatherings BJ attended were illegal under the Covid rules at the relevant time, then he's guilty at best of lying. It doesn't really matter if they were parties, or if there was alcohol present (but not involved).

    (I'm really pissed of with myself now, as I'd made a vow not to comment on the tedium of xxxxxgate ever again).

    I agree about this. In a sense this has always been about language. Firstly the laws/rules/guidance were such poor examples of communication and so badly thought out, that, as someone said earlier, we are still arguing two years on about what and wasn’t legal. And then there is the word ‘party’. I suspect none of the events that Johnson attended fit the bill of party in his head, and so he didn’t lie to parliament, on his terms. Others may differ.

    And at the end of it all, why won’t he just resign? He doesn’t want to. He’s wanted the job all his life and doesn’t want it taken away. And so it’s up to others to remove him.

    He is not the only guilty party. There should be no doubt that senior civil service officers severely cocked up. They should have known better. They will no doubt fail upwards.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,762

    Boris’s biographer just tweeted,

    https://twitter.com/soniapurnell/status/1528784174701760512?s=21&t=BtNkKBhu4NsXR5pg5VxCTQ

    To work with Boris Johnson is to encounter something dark, sinister and totally without soul. It is a destructive experience that makes you doubt your very sanity. Sympathy therefore for the good people of Whitehall. I found that the only salvation is to tell what you've seen.

    She’s disliked him for 30 years. I understand he was a bit of a shit to her when they worked together in Brussels but she’s hardly a neutral commentator
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    biggles said:

    I don’t really see any risk to him from photos of an event the police have seen and didn’t fine him for to be honest - only if he withheld them. As far as I can see those saying he should go are the ones who always have, and his defenders are awaiting the line to take.

    Re: Lying to Parliament, the public just don’t care, no matter how much we on here think they should. The long term damage of this all comes down to whether enough people forgive him this when he shoves cash at them in a few weeks as part of a “non-emergency Budget” emergency Budget.

    I remain of the option that if cost of living impacts due to Ukraine can be unwound in a few months (hopefully with a Ukrainian victory) then he’s odds on to win the next election.

    You might be right that the public don't care about him lying to Parliament,

    But I think a significant minority of the public, including some of his former fans, have decided, and do care, that the PM is an inveterate liar, both in Parliament and elsewhere, and that will lose him quite a lot of votes/seats.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,289

    Calling this 'partygate' and waffling on about parties suits Boris very well. I don't think any of these events were 'parties' in the everyday sense of the word. If they were, they were pretty rubbish.

    Surely the discourse should be about 'illegal gatherings' rather than 'parties'. If the gatherings BJ attended were illegal under the Covid rules at the relevant time, then he's guilty at best of lying. It doesn't really matter if they were/weren't parties, or if there was alcohol present (but not involved).

    (I'm really pissed of with myself now, as I'd made a vow not to comment on the tedium of xxxxxgate ever again).

    Surely the key to everything Partygate is did the PM mislead Parliament and was there some collusive activity between elements of the Met. Police and Team Johnson? My latter point may be a conspiracy theory on the scale of the "grassy knoll" but let's face it, the Met investigation couldn't have worked out better for Johnson if it had been planned to the Nth degree.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    As long as you don’t think something is a party then it seems you can get away with it .

    Bozo could bang a couple of hookers , be caught doing lines of charlie and down a bottle of gin and as long as he thinks it’s not a party then that’s the end of it .

    Because how do you prove what’s in someone’s mind . So the privileges committee which now has 4 Tory MPs to one Labour and one SNP can just fall back on that defence .

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    Foxy said:

    But nipplegate?!?
    A victim, allegedly, woke up to the alleged MP in question licking the victim's nipple. Allegedly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    edited May 2022

    "Defamatory Crap" my arse. The establishment looks after itself, always has done.
    Where’s you’re evidence the police have Seen these photo’s before today? This particular leaving do for Cain Boris in part arranged, though he was only there about ten minutes apparently.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,474

    I don't really think that's true. I think his Government (whatever his own true feelings are, which we never learn) seems to be exactly as you describe. Boris just doesn't take the flak for it because every now and again he declares something vaguely commonsensical, eg. that 18 stone hulks of testosterone with balls like melons shouldn't compete in women's shinty, and Telegraph readers get all excited. It's pretty thin gruel really isn't it?
    Very, very thin gruel. There have clearly been a lot of hurdles along the way, but this government seems set to have achieved nothing.

    What's far worse is that they've completely lost the argument in many areas, and seem oblivious to it. The next Labour government is very likely to take us back to the situation in the 70s.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664

    Hooray for the PB Fantasy football league winner..... :)

    Welcome back to the Champions League.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,554

    Just looking at @RochdalePioneers quote from Boris above

    As he told the Commons: “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken”.

    Even if the events were parties AND Boris *knew* they were parties that quote is not necessarily a lie.

    All he is saying is he was “repeatedly assured” about something at a given point in time.

    Is that really the killer quote / smoking gun?
    I don't think there is a killer quote. The likely situation is not in doubt, but he can and will rely on the unlikely situation still being possible.

    But it is still not a good look for a Prime Minister to be so reliant on appearing to be bloody clueless and incurious about everything.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405


    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    32m
    Tory MP Roger Gale tells Times Radio PM should quit over "damning" new pics.

    "It's absolutely clear there was a party, that he attended it, that he was raising a toast to glass one of his colleagues. Therefore, he misled us from the despatch box. Honorably there is one answer".

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1528802315532214272

    He was going to glass one of his colleagues? At last Boris Johnson does something relatable.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    You might be right that the public don't care about him lying to Parliament,

    But I think a significant minority of the public, including some of his former fans, have decided, and do care, that the PM is an inveterate liar, both in Parliament and elsewhere, and that will lose him quite a lot of votes/seats.
    We’ll see. I may be wrong but I think this will all pass. Though it will be one more thing that drags him now from “near landslide” to “just a majority”.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,672
    "Mr Speaker, when I said that there was no party this was a result of me getting so totally shit-faced that I have no recollection of what happened."
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Nigelb said:

    Energy policy is a consistent failure of successive governments of the last two decades.

    One big reason Switzerland appears to have so much lower inflation than basically anywhere else

    Hydroelectric and nuclear power FTW
    https://efginternational.com/us/insights/2022/Why-is-Swiss-inflation-low.html


    For hydro, substitute wind and tidal.
    The first hasn’t happened fast enough; the second has been completely and irrationally hobbled.

    It turns out the entire energy market was a scam, with providers merely providing a kind of performative competition.

    The UK seems to specialise in such fictions while maintaining that it is a deregulated, post-Thatcher paradise.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,799

    The understanding on ITV News was that similar pictures of this event were enclosed in Gray's evidence to the Met.

    Ruth Davidson and Steve "Hardman" Baker are not taken in but Barty and BigG. have taken the bait

    The Met investigation was a whitewash from start to finish. I am very skeptical that of the only two events Johnson attended one resulted in a fine for Sunak as well as Johnson. Bad behaviour, as we have read on here tonight is baked into Johnson's polling but the FPN skewered Sunak.
    The whole Met thing seems to have worked for him perfectly, doesn't it. Just very very serendipitous for the Magnificent Man.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,762
    rcs1000 said:

    You wouldn't, because you could walk to Camden in the time it would take to queue for the crepe van.
    The pub one next door is nicer, cheaper, and you get to sit inside when it is raining
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105
    Proof 🛒 at event where others fined but not him. Why? Coverup.
    Proof 🛒 lied to MPs.
    If MET asked 🛒 re this then 🛒 lied to them, if MET didn't...
    & MET ignored written evidence of birthday *evening* party *organised* from flat
    #RegimeChange #CrimeWeek
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-4-and-ama-1200-13-may-hundreds/comments?s=w https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1528782732876201984/photo/1
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,980
    edited May 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    When full Gray report out, the Met will have to explain:
    Why they fined the PM for one 9 min event instigated by others (🎂), but did not fine him for a 9 min event he instigated (🍾)
    One answer? 🎂 fine seen as over zealous, so overreacted + caved to pressure from PM's lawyer?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1528819099475877888

    Is this Dom playing 5D chess here? Did he leak the more incriminating photos to Gray after the Met had stated that Boris was (mostly) in the clear? That would be a great way of reigniting the story just as Number Ten thought it had fizzled out, and it would also make the Met look inept and their previous exoneration of Boris utterly worthless.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,105

    "Mr Speaker, when I said that there was no party this was a result of me getting so totally shit-faced that I have no recollection of what happened."

    'How drunk were you last night?'
    'Mate, I got absolutely pixelated' https://twitter.com/andrewhunterm/status/1528761612580143108/photo/1
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Where’s you’re evidence the police have Seen these photo’s before today? This particular leaving do for Cain Boris in part arranged, though he was only there about ten minutes apparently.
    Unless they were completely incompetent (always a possibility with the Met of course) question one on the questionnaire was “who else did you see” and question two was “did you take any photos or video”. Only an idiot would lie to the police, in a way that could easily be found out, therefore the photos must have come up (unless the Met are incompetent).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Scott_xP said:

    'How drunk were you last night?'
    'Mate, I got absolutely pixelated' https://twitter.com/andrewhunterm/status/1528761612580143108/photo/1
    It was all a blur..
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,762

    Mulled wine is great. For one glass only when the temperature is -5 or less. A couple of times a year. More than that or warmer and hugely overrated.
    At the top of a mountain in Switzerland
This discussion has been closed.