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The sex cases’ by-elections are to be held on June 23rd – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635

    My sympathy. Just two trophies already, with. European Cup Final to come.
    Try being a Swindon fan for a year.
    Indeed, my friends who support other teams said what really annoyed was that them was during the 30 year title drought Liverpool were portrayed as some success starved team, in those thirty years Liverpool won 4 league cups, 3 FA Cups, 1 UEFA Cup, and the Champions League twice.

    Try being a Newcastle or a Forest fan.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,628

    Indeed, my friends who support other teams said what really annoyed was that them was during the 30 year title drought Liverpool were portrayed as some success starved team, in those thirty years Liverpool won 4 league cups, 3 FA Cups, 1 UEFA Cup, and the Champions League twice.

    Try being a Newcastle or a Forest fan.
    Or West Ham...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    1 -1
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,621

    Indeed, my friends who support other teams said what really annoyed was that them was during the 30 year title drought Liverpool were portrayed as some success starved team, in those thirty years Liverpool won 4 league cups, 3 FA Cups, 1 UEFA Cup, and the Champions League twice.

    Try being a Newcastle or a Forest fan.
    Just shows, for all the hype about the CL, the league is truly the one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992

    Political betting news. Since voting began in Australian election, the polling has been the worst yet for Labour. There’s clearly been a lot of swingback from midterm, or even more than mid term, just few months ago, in this election; the trend is not Labours friend, they don’t appear to have gained any momentum from the campaign. It might still be tight, but the smart bet now is no change of government?

    Yes new Essential and Resolve polls have the Labor lead slashed on 2PP to just 51% to 49%, a deficit margin Howard's government in 1998 and Hawke's in 1990 got re elected with.

    Resolve has the Coalition leading Labor now 34% to 31% on the primary vote too

    https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/1526535528405155840?t=9aupegrFVJc-XIIMMu-Htg&s=19

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    During lockdown 3 I remember being unsure if I was allowed to sit on a park bench with my 1 permitted friend during my 1 permitted walk. We decided it was probably illegal so we carried on walking. In the fucking sleet

    My God, it was bad
    Some of our Antipodean colleagues got it even worse. Police shaking coffee cups to ensure there was enough to justify your mask being down outdoors. Freaks. But they do have Dan Andrews and his sort running their States. Poor old commie Australia 🇦🇺
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    HYUFD said:

    Yes new Essential and Resolve polls have the Labor lead slashed on 2PP to just 51% to 49%, a deficit margin Howard's government in 1998 and Hawke's in 1990 got re elected with.

    Resolve has the Coalition leading Labor now 34% to 31% on the primary vote too

    https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/1526535528405155840?t=9aupegrFVJc-XIIMMu-Htg&s=19

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html
    Do the betting odds match this is are they still indicating labour is more lickly to win?
  • Farooq said:

    You're right, except there was no doubt. By the time we locked down there was ample data that this disease was killing people in worrying numbers and that more than a month's worth of data from China that said lockdown were working to stop it. Those were the known facts at the time. The unknowns were many still, but it was clear what was growing in our midst and that there was at least one way to seriously hamper its progress.
    Diseases kill.

    That's not enough to say lockdown.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635

    Just shows, for all the hype about the CL, the league is truly the one.
    Depends, I genuinely think winning a CL confirms that you're something special.

    I know Pep and the owners would love a CL.

    It is great being European Royalty.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    Political betting news. Since voting began in Australian election, the polling has been the worst yet for Labour. There’s clearly been a lot of swingback from midterm, or even more than mid term, just few months ago, in this election; the trend is not Labours friend, they don’t appear to have gained any momentum from the campaign. It might still be tight, but the smart bet now is no change of government?

    As I have posted on here before Labor often flatter to deceive in Australia.

    Don't write off Liberal/National coalition yet! So basically I am agreeing with you 👍
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992

    As I have posted on here before Labor often flatter to deceive in Australia.

    Don't write off Liberal/National coalition yet! So basically I am agreeing with you 👍
    Albanese is an Australian Kinnock and Ed Miliband all in one
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Some of our Antipodean colleagues got it even worse. Police shaking coffee cups to ensure there was enough to justify your mask being down outdoors. Freaks. But they do have Dan Andrews and his sort running their States. Poor old commie Australia 🇦🇺
    We all did it. And its an insanely good thing that so many are very happy to go along with the greater good.

    (Was it the greater good? Who knows and I really don't care)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533
    HYUFD said:

    Yes new Essential and Resolve polls have the Labor lead slashed on 2PP to just 51% to 49%, a deficit margin Howard's government in 1998 and Hawke's in 1990 got re elected with.

    Resolve has the Coalition leading Labor now 34% to 31% on the primary vote too

    https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/1526535528405155840?t=9aupegrFVJc-XIIMMu-Htg&s=19

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html
    If Morrison manages it once again he will prove himself quite the adept campaigner, given the surprise of last time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022

    Indeed, my friends who support other teams said what really annoyed was that them was during the 30 year title drought Liverpool were portrayed as some success starved team, in those thirty years Liverpool won 4 league cups, 3 FA Cups, 1 UEFA Cup, and the Champions League twice.

    Try being a Newcastle or a Forest fan.
    No domestic success for Newcastle since 1955 (if we exclude the Texaco cup which everyone does)
    No top league since the 1920s
    But they do have the Intertoto in 2006. Glory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited May 2022
    kle4 said:

    If Morrison manages it once again he will prove himself quite the adept campaigner, given the surprise of last time.
    Yes, he is a brilliant campaigner, especially from behind like 2019 and has a clear lead over Albanese as preferred PM in the campaign's final week.

    His promise to allow the young to use superannuation funds for a house deposit has also gone down well
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,070
    edited May 2022
    Political betting post.
    Since locals clear uptick in Lib Dem polling, greens solid too, this coming mostly at Labour expense and the gap between the two main parties as smaller, though no obvious bounce in the Tory share whilst Lab Lib Green combined seems on the higher end of scale from each pollster.

    HOWEVER. Within this trend of smaller Labour leads because of explained locals bounce, we are due monthly Kantor, tick tock, that never gives Labour much lead the best of times, there could be long shot betting opportunity to bet on the first Tory lead in a long while?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533

    Diseases kill.

    That's not enough to say lockdown.
    I think the circumstances were serious enough and to warrant severe action, but implementation of said action can still have been far from ideal. Blunt measures to begin with as a matter of urgency and caution made sense I think, but there was definitely a period where any suggestion of a less blunt approach at the first indication of difficulty would have been politically very difficult, even though the situation had changed significantly (for instance with vaccines), to the point what turned out to be sensible choices were against the public mood at the time, like the summer opening.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Political betting post.
    Since locals clear uptick in Lib Dem polling, greens solid too, this coming mostly at Labour expense and the gap between the two main parties as smaller, though no obvious bounce in the Tory share whilst Lab Lib Green combined seems on the higher end of scale from each pollster.

    HOWEVER. Within this trend of smaller Labour leads because of explained locals bounce, we are due monthly Kantor, tick tock, that never gives Labour much lead the best of times, there could be long shot betting opportunity to bet on the first Tory lewd in a long while?

    I fancy that will come from either one of YouGovs wobbles or a Teche Friday poll
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,530

    Just shows, for all the hype about the CL, the league is truly the one.
    In a way, Liverpool (and Real Madrid for that matter) have had it good both ways. The European Cup was tricky to get into when they were really good, but much easier to get into when they haven't been dominant domestically.
  • Farooq said:

    No, it isn't, and luckily I wasn't making anywhere like such a general point.
    We've had other deadly pandemics, including in my lifetime, that certainly didn't require lockdowns.
    Indeed so how can you say it was ever proven beyond all reasonable doubt that this did?

    Let alone sooner than it was done?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    ...

    Political betting post.
    Since locals clear uptick in Lib Dem polling, greens solid too, this coming mostly at Labour expense and the gap between the two main parties as smaller, though no obvious bounce in the Tory share whilst Lab Lib Green combined seems on the higher end of scale from each pollster.

    HOWEVER. Within this trend of smaller Labour leads because of explained locals bounce, we are due monthly Kantor, tick tock, that never gives Labour much lead the best of times, there could be long shot betting opportunity to bet on the first Tory lead in a long while?

    That is certainly on the horizon for when a disgraced Starmer has to resign in lockdown-busting shame in a week or two, whilst Johnson doesn't have to.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,337
    Farooq said:

    No, it isn't, and luckily I wasn't making anywhere like such a general point.
    We've had other deadly pandemics, including in my lifetime, that certainly didn't require lockdowns.
    Unfortunately, the numbers were different this time.

    Wave 1 got us to about 10% immunity by infection at a cost of about 50k deaths.

    Had the UK let nature take its course, that would have been about 350k deaths over the spring and early summer of 2020. Because nobody worked out how you could lock away the elderly for 3 months whilst everyone else took their turn in front of the Russian Roulette gun.

    And may the Lord have mercy on any hypothetical government that tried that path only for variants and vaccines to roll up a few months later.

    There is a rollicking cosy dystopia to be written about a government forced into that situation. How would you actually manage it? What would you do if you turned out to be an international outlier? How would the final chapter go (Prime Minister, there appears to be a variant that allows reinfection...)? Far too early to write it, natch, but it will be a damn good read when the time comes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,070
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Albanese is an Australian Kinnock and Ed Miliband all in one
    Or Starmer in other words you mean.

    But it looks like the more Charismatic and Aggressive right wing politician, miles behind on polls and ratings for nearly all the parliament, has swung back to beat another weak opponent and win again.

    Let’s hope not setting a trend. 🙁

    Looking at everything a couple of months back, I was so sure there was no way back 🙁

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,789

    No domestic success for Newcastle since 1955 (if we exclude the Texaco cup which everyone does)
    No top league since the 1920s
    But they do have the Intertoto in 2006. Glory.
    They've won division 2 a few times. More than most teams have done.

    Honestly, you big club fans. You're like my in-laws. They're Spurs fans, and appear to sincerely believe that supporting Spurs is a unique burden, rather than winning more than virtually anyone else bar roughly 5 clubs, which, as the sixth richest club in the land, is pretty much bang on where you'd expect them to be.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Cookie said:

    They've won division 2 a few times. More than most teams have done.

    Honestly, you big club fans. You're like my in-laws. They're Spurs fans, and appear to sincerely believe that supporting Spurs is a unique burden, rather than winning more than virtually anyone else bar roughly 5 clubs, which, as the sixth richest club in the land, is pretty much bang on where you'd expect them to be.
    I'm Leeds. We aren't big. We've also won div 2, it doesn't count. It's like a participation certificate
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Unfortunately, the numbers were different this time.

    Wave 1 got us to about 10% immunity by infection at a cost of about 50k deaths.

    Had the UK let nature take its course, that would have been about 350k deaths over the spring and early summer of 2020. Because nobody worked out how you could lock away the elderly for 3 months whilst everyone else took their turn in front of the Russian Roulette gun.

    And may the Lord have mercy on any hypothetical government that tried that path only for variants and vaccines to roll up a few months later.

    There is a rollicking cosy dystopia to be written about a government forced into that situation. How would you actually manage it? What would you do if you turned out to be an international outlier? How would the final chapter go (Prime Minister, there appears to be a variant that allows reinfection...)? Far too early to write it, natch, but it will be a damn good read when the time comes.
    I totally Disagree,

    1) wave one might have got us to 50K 'total' deaths as you put it but that was deaths with and depths form COVID the excess deaths was much lower.

    2) wave one got us to the opposite of where she should have been, there was lots of infection and death in Care homes, because people who still had the viruses where discarded from hospital back to there care home, but only a small proportion of the young and heathy population. therefor even if 70% of the population did get it, it would not have been 7 times the number of deaths.

    The government made a lot of mistakes, care homes and not encouraging old people to protect themselves as best they could, where the first and most impotent, because they the fallers there led to the first lockdown and from that the need for a second and probably third.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    Cookie said:

    They've won division 2 a few times. More than most teams have done.

    Honestly, you big club fans. You're like my in-laws. They're Spurs fans, and appear to sincerely believe that supporting Spurs is a unique burden, rather than winning more than virtually anyone else bar roughly 5 clubs, which, as the sixth richest club in the land, is pretty much bang on where you'd expect them to be.
    Spurs 6th richest? The Toon says Haddaway and Shite
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,533
    Worth nothing the Coalition in Australia has been at been at the high end for quite some time. They had equal seats with Labour in 2010 even though they didn't end up in power

    It's amusing that the chap in charge when they won big in 2013 only lasted 2 years as PM. As is the oft noted fact that since Howard they've had 5 PMs in 15 years, with none making it to 4 years in office.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635
    Leon said:

    Spurs 6th richest? The Toon says Haddaway and Shite
    By turnover Spurs are 5th biggest club in the country.

    10th in the world overall.

    Newcastle nowhere to be seen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    BigRich said:

    I totally Disagree,

    1) wave one might have got us to 50K 'total' deaths as you put it but that was deaths with and depths form COVID the excess deaths was much lower.

    2) wave one got us to the opposite of where she should have been, there was lots of infection and death in Care homes, because people who still had the viruses where discarded from hospital back to there care home, but only a small proportion of the young and heathy population. therefor even if 70% of the population did get it, it would not have been 7 times the number of deaths.

    The government made a lot of mistakes, care homes and not encouraging old people to protect themselves as best they could, where the first and most impotent, because they the fallers there led to the first lockdown and from that the need for a second and probably third.
    'Deaths with' would have been greatly increased because of covid making many diseases much worse, the mortality from general anaesthesia much higher, and so on.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,789

    I'm Leeds. We aren't big. We've also won div 2, it doesn't count. It's like a participation certificate
    Didn't Leeds win the league in the 70s, and again in the 90s? Don't they get gates of 30,000 plus? Being the only team in one of the biggest cities in the country? Leeds is a big club.
    If winning a league apart from the top one doesn't count, almost every team has never won anything.
    Saying Leeds isn't a big club is like saying Great Britain is a small island. Granted there are bigger, but there are thousands of smaller.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Or Starmer in other words you mean.

    But it looks like the more Charismatic and Aggressive right wing politician, miles behind on polls and ratings for nearly all the parliament, has swung back to beat another weak opponent and win again.

    Let’s hope not setting a trend. 🙁

    Looking at everything a couple of months back, I was so sure there was no way back 🙁

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
    Correct me if I'm wrong but due to Australia's electoral system, close to 100% of Green votes will flow to Labor (or elect Greens themselves). Plus this time, there are a bunch of independents who are an anti-Coalition force? So the question is really who is gaining from Labor's decline?
  • Farooq said:

    Because the nature of this disease. It's not like HIV/AIDS where a lockdown would have been plainly mad. This one spreads and kills through the air, by proximity. By mid-February 2020 the evidence was very clear that people mixing far less was a way of curtailing the spread. And at the time, it was probably the only way to seriously reduce the excess deaths that would result. And it did.
    Not enough to justify taking away fundamental liberties.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635
    Cookie said:

    They've won division 2 a few times. More than most teams have done.

    Honestly, you big club fans. You're like my in-laws. They're Spurs fans, and appear to sincerely believe that supporting Spurs is a unique burden, rather than winning more than virtually anyone else bar roughly 5 clubs, which, as the sixth richest club in the land, is pretty much bang on where you'd expect them to be.
    You've never heard the terms Spursy?

    60 years without a title, only one trophy this millenium, Spurs are Spursy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    I'm Leeds. We aren't big. We've also won div 2, it doesn't count. It's like a participation certificate
    I used to support Leeds. Brought me some joy and much grief as a lad

    They’ve had it tough. Yet the potential is enormous. They are probably the most unsuccessful club that nonetheless has the singular support of an entire large English city. I’m surprised some minor oligarch hasn’t bought them
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    sarissa said:

    Alex Salmond says hello.
    Not a MP.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Spurs 6th richest? The Toon says Haddaway and Shite
    Sadly Forbes does indeed put the smallest club in London at number 6
    Spurs who famously win the cup when there's a batman symbol in the year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    edited May 2022

    Or Starmer in other words you mean.

    But it looks like the more Charismatic and Aggressive right wing politician, miles behind on polls and ratings for nearly all the parliament, has swung back to beat another weak opponent and win again.

    Let’s hope not setting a trend. 🙁

    Looking at everything a couple of months back, I was so sure there was no way back 🙁

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
    No, Shorten in 2016 and 2019 was more Starmer.

    So election 2019 in Australia would be more apt for him.

    Though Starmer does at least lead Boris on preferred PM now, neither Shorten nor Albanese have led Morrison on that measure
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    By turnover Spurs are 5th biggest club in the country.

    10th in the world overall.

    Newcastle nowhere to be seen.
    But the financial muscle behind Newcastle is now enormous. Dwarfing virtually every other team on the planet, except maybe PSG?

    The Saudi fund that owns them is worth £320 billion
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    I used to support Leeds. Brought me some joy and much grief as a lad

    They’ve had it tough. Yet the potential is enormous. They are probably the most unsuccessful club that nonetheless has the singular support of an entire large English city. I’m surprised some minor oligarch hasn’t bought them
    Radrizzani is a very minor oligarch!
    But we also have investment from the owners of the 49ers. They'll probably spend a bit if we stay up
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    But the financial muscle behind Newcastle is now enormous. Dwarfing virtually every other team on the planet, except maybe PSG?

    The Saudi fund that owns them is worth £320 billion
    Financial fair play, they cannot do a Citeh.

    Remember the PL have taken pre-emptive action against Newcastle.

    Premier League clubs vote to block Newcastle sponsorship deals at emergency meeting

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/18/premier-league-clubs-vote-to-block-newcastle-sponsorship-deals-at-emergency-meeting

    Which they lifted but it'll be difficult for the barcodes to agree a 300 million quid sponsorship deal with Saudi airlines.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league-amanda-staveley-newcastle-magpies-sports-direct-b1975819.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Farooq said:

    The known unknown is how much they will actually spend. Saying £320bn is one thing, but they won't spend it all on the Toon.
    And, of course, that was before they owned Newcastle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    This thread has been not very anonymously arrested by the Met.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Cookie said:

    Didn't Leeds win the league in the 70s, and again in the 90s? Don't they get gates of 30,000 plus? Being the only team in one of the biggest cities in the country? Leeds is a big club.
    If winning a league apart from the top one doesn't count, almost every team has never won anything.
    Saying Leeds isn't a big club is like saying Great Britain is a small island. Granted there are bigger, but there are thousands of smaller.
    Newcsatle are a bigger club.
    We won the league in 69, 74 and 92 (the last div 1 title)
    Cup in 72
    League Cup 68
    Leeds and Newcastle are both tbf mid range clubs with periods of big history
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,070

    ...

    That is certainly on the horizon for when a disgraced Starmer has to resign in lockdown-busting shame in a week or two, whilst Johnson doesn't have to.
    No I don’t think so. The Kantor only comes out once a month and is due now, not in a few weeks.

    Starmer resigning without trying to hang on might boost Labour a bit, or at very least put pressure on Boris and Tory ratings, so that may not throw up the Tory lead you predict.

    When the new Labour leader appointed they sure to get a bounce and honeymoon, even if they then turn out to be a dud and start going backwards against the Tories. However, the period between Starmer’s resignation and Nandy or Streetings (based on current betting) crowning, period they effectively don’t have proper leader, could see the Tories build up a poll lead again.

    What would Labour actually do without Starmer and Rayner overnight. Due to nature of their going (lawmaker lawbreakers) and promise to go, they couldn’t remotely hang on till successor found - Labour would have to turn to a grandee as mind the shop leader? Like Harriet Harman, Dianne Abbott, Margaret Beckett.

    Or I think Ed Milliband, who has worn the captains armband before, but won’t be standing for leadership. Ed v Boris might be funky enough to prevent a Tory lead at least until new leader honeymoon is over.

    How analytical and fair about Labour is this post and prospects of next Tory lead?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,789

    You've never heard the terms Spursy?

    60 years without a title, only one trophy this millenium, Spurs are Spursy.
    As a Stockport fan, it's very difficult to have any sympathy at all for any of this.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,755
    Carnyx said:

    Technically I should have said the clock tower, I forget the pukka name!
    Big Ben makes Elizabeth’s Tower vibrate?
This discussion has been closed.