The sex cases’ by-elections are to be held on June 23rd – politicalbetting.com

System

The sex cases’ by-elections are to be held on June 23rd – politicalbetting.com

Given the extraordinary level of resources that parties put into key by-elections, I am a bit surprised that the Tories have chosen to hold them on the same day – Thursday, June 23rd. Maybe the view is having two lots of bad news at the same time might be more easily forgotten.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

First unlike the Tories

Applicant

Makes perfect sense:

• Lose both, one day's headlines instead of two
  
• Win one, one day's good headlines instead of one good and one bad
  

Looking at these odds, surely the value is in LD/Con, which seems to me to be much more likely than Con/Lab?

Carnyx

I wonder if Mr Tractor is standing as an independent? He's certainly got a lot of publicity lately.

BartholomewRoberts

TOPPING said:

Applicant said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Farooq said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Businesses in NI to be able to choose to follow EU or UK regulations.

Exactly what I suggested five years ago. Common sense solution. 👍

Well done Truss.

Insane. For at least two very obvious reasons: enforcement, and what happens if the rules fiverge? NI loses its current advantages which are the only thing keeping it in the UK.

How is enforcement as issue? You enforce the lowest common denominator.

Who cares if the rules diverge? NI gains an even bigger advantage then if they do. Anything legal in the EU but not the UK would be legal in NI, and anything legal in the UK but not the EU would be legal in NI too, so NI would get the best of both worlds. Good for them.

The EU would be setting law in Northern Ireland then?

Ireland would partially be doing so yes, that's the entire frigging point of power sharing and the Good Friday Agreement.

They'd be able under my proposal to legalise something currently illegal in the UK, but not the other way around. Anything legal in either the Republic or the United Kingdom would be legal in NI as part of them being open to both markets.

Er, power sharing is power over part of the UK shared between two UK political parties, not between the UK and a foreign entity.

Oh really?

Ireland was a signatory to the GFA and is involved in power sharing.

No. It is about cross-community involvement (ie power sharing) at the executive level within Northern Ireland. WITHIN NORTHERN IRELAND. The RoI has no input into the govt of NI.

Trying not to be rude here, Bart.

Yes but Sinn Fein at the executive level want an open border with the Republic, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into NI achieves that for Sinn Fein within Northern Ireland.

The DUP want an open border with GB, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into GB achieves that for the DUP within Northern Ireland.

So win/win. Allow NI to have as legal whatever is legal in the EU or Great Britain thus keeping Sinn Fein and DUP on board.

Mate if you thought that power sharing meant that the RoI was part of the NI govt then I'm not sure why we are having this discussion. Away to ConHome for you.

As to your point about what Sinn Fein wants that is beside the point.

NI is currently has (and I hope continues to have) the best of both worlds by straddling both the EU and the UK. Was there as study which showed that they have outperformed other parts of the UK perhaps as a result?

We shall see what legislation Truss puts forward (she did say she wants to determine this via negotiation) but the overarching point is that the Protocol was lauded by the same government that now seeks to dismantle elements of it.

What's wrong with dismantling elements of it after introducing it?

I believe in iteration and evolution. You introduce something, see what works, drop what doesn't, change what needs changing, but keep what is working.

Do you object to that? Should we have ossification so that once something is introduced it is sclerotically kept forever?

Besides as @MaxPB has repeatedly pointed out the scheduling of this was always to deal with the Irish issue first, get Brexit done, get a trade deal, then revisit the Irish issue post trade deal. We're at the final stage of that process now.

The point was that it was perfectly obvious (a feature, not a bug) that the NI Protocol would introduce intra-UK checks on ham and cheese sandwiches. If something is not working as intended then of course change it, who wouldn't. But the NI Protocol was/is working exactly as intended.

And scheduling is irrelevant save for the fact that it is another misstep from the government that you appear to continue to have so much faith in.

Talk about fool some of the people all of the time.

The scheduling was a fait accompli a couple of years before the current government took office - and, indeed, agreeing to it was one of the biggest missteps by the previous government. That being in place is why the current government really had no option but to sign the TCA ASAP and then get on with fixing May's fuck up.

They still came up with the NI Protocol, sold it as a fantastic deal, saw it implemented exactly as per design, and subsequently are now attempting to dismantle it.

But you keep cheering.

Yes because that's entirely reasonable and appropriate. 👍

Article 15 of the Protocol provides the steps for changing, dismantling or evolving the Protocol. Why would that be there if it wasn't planned to be used at some stage? 🤦‍♂️

algarkirk

A bit of value in LD to win Tiverton and Con to win Wakefield at 25/1?

Stark_Dawning

I wonder if the Tories have got some intelligence that Sir Keir will be exonerated by Durham police. If so then a trade war with the EU might be a good distraction from the contrast with Boris. Ultimate dead-cat manoeuvre?

HYUFD

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Interesting aside from the discussion on PMs.

Until the 1926 Re-election of Ministers Act, any MP appointed to a ministerial position at any time other than a general election had to call a by-election to confirm their new position.

That would stop pointless reshuffles.

I prefer my solution. Cabinet level ministers have to have 3 years experience as ministers, shadow ministers or on the select committee of their relevant departments.

I'm probably being dim, but surely that doesn't work if an opposition party wins an election at Westminster (or indeed Holyrood, and I think also the Senedd) in the current circumstances. Apart from the select cttee. And what happens if depts are reshuffled?

dixiedean

algarkirk said:

A bit of value in LD to win Tiverton and Con to win Wakefield at 25/1?

Yes I think that's the value bet there.
Unlikely, mind. But much more than 4%.

dixiedean

Con/Lab also possible value too.

TOPPING

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

Applicant said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Farooq said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Businesses in NI to be able to choose to follow EU or UK regulations.

Exactly what I suggested five years ago. Common sense solution. 👍

Well done Truss.

Insane. For at least two very obvious reasons: enforcement, and what happens if the rules fiverge? NI loses its current advantages which are the only thing keeping it in the UK.

How is enforcement as issue? You enforce the lowest common denominator.

Who cares if the rules diverge? NI gains an even bigger advantage then if they do. Anything legal in the EU but not the UK would be legal in NI, and anything legal in the UK but not the EU would be legal in NI too, so NI would get the best of both worlds. Good for them.

The EU would be setting law in Northern Ireland then?

Ireland would partially be doing so yes, that's the entire frigging point of power sharing and the Good Friday Agreement.

They'd be able under my proposal to legalise something currently illegal in the UK, but not the other way around. Anything legal in either the Republic or the United Kingdom would be legal in NI as part of them being open to both markets.

Er, power sharing is power over part of the UK shared between two UK political parties, not between the UK and a foreign entity.

Oh really?

Ireland was a signatory to the GFA and is involved in power sharing.

No. It is about cross-community involvement (ie power sharing) at the executive level within Northern Ireland. WITHIN NORTHERN IRELAND. The RoI has no input into the govt of NI.

Trying not to be rude here, Bart.

Yes but Sinn Fein at the executive level want an open border with the Republic, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into NI achieves that for Sinn Fein within Northern Ireland.

The DUP want an open border with GB, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into GB achieves that for the DUP within Northern Ireland.

So win/win. Allow NI to have as legal whatever is legal in the EU or Great Britain thus keeping Sinn Fein and DUP on board.

Mate if you thought that power sharing meant that the RoI was part of the NI govt then I'm not sure why we are having this discussion. Away to ConHome for you.

As to your point about what Sinn Fein wants that is beside the point.

NI is currently has (and I hope continues to have) the best of both worlds by straddling both the EU and the UK. Was there as study which showed that they have outperformed other parts of the UK perhaps as a result?

We shall see what legislation Truss puts forward (she did say she wants to determine this via negotiation) but the overarching point is that the Protocol was lauded by the same government that now seeks to dismantle elements of it.

What's wrong with dismantling elements of it after introducing it?

I believe in iteration and evolution. You introduce something, see what works, drop what doesn't, change what needs changing, but keep what is working.

Do you object to that? Should we have ossification so that once something is introduced it is sclerotically kept forever?

Besides as @MaxPB has repeatedly pointed out the scheduling of this was always to deal with the Irish issue first, get Brexit done, get a trade deal, then revisit the Irish issue post trade deal. We're at the final stage of that process now.

The point was that it was perfectly obvious (a feature, not a bug) that the NI Protocol would introduce intra-UK checks on ham and cheese sandwiches. If something is not working as intended then of course change it, who wouldn't. But the NI Protocol was/is working exactly as intended.

And scheduling is irrelevant save for the fact that it is another misstep from the government that you appear to continue to have so much faith in.

Talk about fool some of the people all of the time.

The scheduling was a fait accompli a couple of years before the current government took office - and, indeed, agreeing to it was one of the biggest missteps by the previous government. That being in place is why the current government really had no option but to sign the TCA ASAP and then get on with fixing May's fuck up.

They still came up with the NI Protocol, sold it as a fantastic deal, saw it implemented exactly as per design, and subsequently are now attempting to dismantle it.

But you keep cheering.

Yes because that's entirely reasonable and appropriate. 👍

Article 15 of the Protocol provides the steps for changing, dismantling or evolving the Protocol. Why would that be there if it wasn't planned to be used at some stage? 🤦‍♂️

Perhaps some unintended consequence. They are dismantling it because of an intended consequence.

Carnyx

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144669.snp-greens-strike-glasgow-deal-run-city-council/?ref=ebbn

SNP to run Glasgow as a minority admin with support from the SGs.

Labour out in the cold, by their own self-denying ordinance.

BartholomewRoberts

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

Applicant

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

Applicant said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

TOPPING said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Farooq said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Carnyx said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Businesses in NI to be able to choose to follow EU or UK regulations.

Exactly what I suggested five years ago. Common sense solution. 👍

Well done Truss.

Insane. For at least two very obvious reasons: enforcement, and what happens if the rules fiverge? NI loses its current advantages which are the only thing keeping it in the UK.

How is enforcement as issue? You enforce the lowest common denominator.

Who cares if the rules diverge? NI gains an even bigger advantage then if they do. Anything legal in the EU but not the UK would be legal in NI, and anything legal in the UK but not the EU would be legal in NI too, so NI would get the best of both worlds. Good for them.

The EU would be setting law in Northern Ireland then?

Ireland would partially be doing so yes, that's the entire frigging point of power sharing and the Good Friday Agreement.

They'd be able under my proposal to legalise something currently illegal in the UK, but not the other way around. Anything legal in either the Republic or the United Kingdom would be legal in NI as part of them being open to both markets.

Er, power sharing is power over part of the UK shared between two UK political parties, not between the UK and a foreign entity.

Oh really?

Ireland was a signatory to the GFA and is involved in power sharing.

No. It is about cross-community involvement (ie power sharing) at the executive level within Northern Ireland. WITHIN NORTHERN IRELAND. The RoI has no input into the govt of NI.

Trying not to be rude here, Bart.

Yes but Sinn Fein at the executive level want an open border with the Republic, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into NI achieves that for Sinn Fein within Northern Ireland.

The DUP want an open border with GB, so an agreement to allow whatever is legal into GB achieves that for the DUP within Northern Ireland.

So win/win. Allow NI to have as legal whatever is legal in the EU or Great Britain thus keeping Sinn Fein and DUP on board.

Mate if you thought that power sharing meant that the RoI was part of the NI govt then I'm not sure why we are having this discussion. Away to ConHome for you.

As to your point about what Sinn Fein wants that is beside the point.

NI is currently has (and I hope continues to have) the best of both worlds by straddling both the EU and the UK. Was there as study which showed that they have outperformed other parts of the UK perhaps as a result?

We shall see what legislation Truss puts forward (she did say she wants to determine this via negotiation) but the overarching point is that the Protocol was lauded by the same government that now seeks to dismantle elements of it.

What's wrong with dismantling elements of it after introducing it?

I believe in iteration and evolution. You introduce something, see what works, drop what doesn't, change what needs changing, but keep what is working.

Do you object to that? Should we have ossification so that once something is introduced it is sclerotically kept forever?

Besides as @MaxPB has repeatedly pointed out the scheduling of this was always to deal with the Irish issue first, get Brexit done, get a trade deal, then revisit the Irish issue post trade deal. We're at the final stage of that process now.

The point was that it was perfectly obvious (a feature, not a bug) that the NI Protocol would introduce intra-UK checks on ham and cheese sandwiches. If something is not working as intended then of course change it, who wouldn't. But the NI Protocol was/is working exactly as intended.

And scheduling is irrelevant save for the fact that it is another misstep from the government that you appear to continue to have so much faith in.

Talk about fool some of the people all of the time.

The scheduling was a fait accompli a couple of years before the current government took office - and, indeed, agreeing to it was one of the biggest missteps by the previous government. That being in place is why the current government really had no option but to sign the TCA ASAP and then get on with fixing May's fuck up.

They still came up with the NI Protocol, sold it as a fantastic deal, saw it implemented exactly as per design, and subsequently are now attempting to dismantle it.

But you keep cheering.

Yes because that's entirely reasonable and appropriate. 👍

Article 15 of the Protocol provides the steps for changing, dismantling or evolving the Protocol. Why would that be there if it wasn't planned to be used at some stage? 🤦‍♂️

Perhaps some unintended consequence. They are dismantling it because of an intended consequence.

It was an intended consequence that the EU would break their promise on scheduling? How telling.

Carnyx

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

NorthofStoke

Stark_Dawning said:

I wonder if the Tories have got some intelligence that Sir Keir will be exonerated by Durham police. If so then a trade war with the EU might be a good distraction from the contrast with Boris. Ultimate dead-cat manoeuvre?

How many dimensions of chess is that? Mind you I suspect current Tory leadership is more adept at political manoeuvring than solving real problems.

Taz

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It’s evolution not revolution.

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

What do you expect, with a tractor enthusiast as the last Tory MP in a formerly safe seat?

Northern_Al

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

OnlyLivingBoy

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

BlancheLivermore

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

bigjohnowls

dixiedean said:

algarkirk said:

A bit of value in LD to win Tiverton and Con to win Wakefield at 25/1?

Yes I think that's the value bet there.
Unlikely, mind. But much more than 4%.

Just done that bet.

I think Lab imposing a non local pen pusher in Wakefield with ultra Remoan tendancies reduces their likleyhood of winning

Still think kicking the Tories for cost of living crisis will probably trump that though

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

At local council level, it makes sense to work together if you get along, the maths works, and you can agree a sensible common programme for the local area.

If that's the case for Stirling Labour and Tory councillors then fine, and they'll be judged on their results.

But I don't see the point of locking the SNP out as a point of principle, simply because they are pro-independence. In reality, independence is not going to be won and lost in Stirling Civic Centre. Nor is their support for separation an abhorrent ideology - I disagree with it personally, but reasonable people can disagree.

As I say, I don't know the reasoning of Tories and Labour in Stirling. But I really do hope that their primary objective was to form an administration that can provide the best possible public services in Stirling rather than merely to, "keep out the Nationalist SNP".

turbotubbs

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Where is the the trust from the EU? 20% of customs checks for the whole EU are between GB and NI.
Which body first played the A16 card UK or EU?

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

It was under Corbyn under Starmer social democrat like the SNP but Unionist like the Tories but unlike the SNP

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

What do you expect, with a tractor enthusiast as the last Tory MP in a formerly safe seat?

Depends, if the Tories pick a local candidate unlike Shropshire North they might hold on

Carnyx

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

At local council level, it makes sense to work together if you get along, the maths works, and you can agree a sensible common programme for the local area.

If that's the case for Stirling Labour and Tory councillors then fine, and they'll be judged on their results.

But I don't see the point of locking the SNP out as a point of principle, simply because they are pro-independence. In reality, independence is not going to be won and lost in Stirling Civic Centre. Nor is their support for separation an abhorrent ideology - I disagree with it personally, but reasonable people can disagree.

As I say, I don't know the reasoning of Tories and Labour in Stirling. But I really do hope that their primary objective was to form an administration that can provide the best possible public services in Stirling rather than merely to, "keep out the Nationalist SNP".

SNP 8
Tories 7
Labour 6 councillors ... [edit] plus one INdependent (not that kind) and 1 SG.

No public statement as yet as to their motives.

Taz

‘Hepeating’ is not a new thing. Although parroting what someone else said at work and taking credit for it is nothing new and not gender specific.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/hepeating-what-woman-ignore-men-idea-repeat-sexism-misogynist-a8080601.html

BartholomewRoberts

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Indeed, the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that the pro-EU side have shown in sequencing NI talks first promising to come back to NI after the trade deal was reached - then expecting the NI Protocol to be ossified indefinitely rather than the sequencing they themselves chose being stuck to which has caused the problem.

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Do you think current polls are a good guide on this? I don't. It's just not how by-elections work, and hasn't been historically either.

Were we looking at a General Election, of course Wakefield would be the more likely seat to change hands. At a by-election, you're not choosing a Government (which is good for the LDs), it's a free hit, and the Lib Dems are bloody good at them. Labour meanwhile aren't, you have quite a few "never Labour" voters, and they do have more onus on them to make the case as a prospective Government. On balance, and contrary to the betting, I'd say Tiverton LD/Wakefield Con is more likely than Tiverton Con/Wakefield Lab.

BlancheLivermore

@SlavaMalamud
Russia is now in the Jesus On a Tortilla stage of hopefulness.

@francis_scarr
Russian state TV's regional news service in the city of Pskov reports that a calf with a patriotic V marking has been born in the village of Malaya Gogolyovka. It also showed a photo of a "Z-shaped sunset" sent in by a viewer.
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526503592257105920

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

It was under Corbyn under Starmer social democrat like the SNP but Unionist like the Tories but unlike the SNP

You said the other day Liverpool is socialist cos it has Labour MPs right now. You can't change your mind just like that *snaps fingers* and expect to ibe treated as a serious and rigorous discutant.

Carnyx

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

What do you expect, with a tractor enthusiast as the last Tory MP in a formerly safe seat?

Depends, if the Tories pick a local candidate unlike Shropshire North they might hold on

You missed the joke ...

Cookie

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

OnlyLivingBoy

BartholomewRoberts said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Indeed, the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that the pro-EU side have shown in sequencing NI talks first promising to come back to NI after the trade deal was reached - then expecting the NI Protocol to be ossified indefinitely rather than the sequencing they themselves chose being stuck to which has caused the problem.

Ha ha, your ability to deliver this calibre of comedy gold, day in day out, is truly awe inspiring.

MaxPB

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Icarus

I cannot find anywhere who the Liberal Democrat candidate for Tiverton and Honiton is. Are you sure they have been chosen?

Leon

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

OnlyLivingBoy

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

BlancheLivermore

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

She does seem to have a genderist agenda.

YBarddCwsc

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Do you think current polls are a good guide on this? I don't. It's just not how by-elections work, and hasn't been historically either.

Were we looking at a General Election, of course Wakefield would be the more likely seat to change hands. At a by-election, you're not choosing a Government, it's a free hit, and the Lib Dems are bloody good at them. On balance, and contrary to the betting, I'd say Tiverton LD/Wakefield Con is more likely than Tiverton Con/Wakefield Lab.

I completely agree ... but you have rather let the LibDem cat out of the bag.

These LibDem by-election gains are borderline meaningless, a 'free hit'.

Fine, I don't mind. It keeps the LibDem activists busy and out of everyone's hair if they are pounding the rural lanes of Hon & Tiv, chivvying hapless residents & getting stung by nettles.

But, the point of the activity does seem rather obscure -- a bit like singing to your dog, or ironing.

Andy_JS

It might be worth a flutter on the Tories losing Tiverton and holding Wakefield. Not very likely but probably more likely than any odds that might be offered on it.

Carnyx

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

Applicant

Icarus said:

I cannot find anywhere who the Liberal Democrat candidate for Tiverton and Honiton is. Are you sure they have been chosen?

Confusing it with Somerton and Frome, which selected their candidate at the weekend?

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

It was under Corbyn under Starmer social democrat like the SNP but Unionist like the Tories but unlike the SNP

You said the other day Liverpool is socialist cos it has Labour MPs right now. You can't change your mind just like that *snaps fingers* and expect to ibe treated as a serious and rigorous discutant.

Yes Liverpool is socialist as every MP it elected in 2019 was Labour when Labour was a socialist party under Corbyn.

Corbyn has now been replaced as Labour leader by the social democrat Labour leader Starmer but that does not change the fact Liverpool is a socialist city at all as it voted for Corbyn unlike the UK

AugustusCarp2

FWIW, I think the Lib Dems have selected their candidate in Somerton & Frome, NOT Tiverton & Honiton.

OnlyLivingBoy

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

MattW

Interesting little titbit that I had not noticed. When Russia bombed the Ukr aircraft maintenance depot, they destroyed aircraft belonging to third countries:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMIDFzP_Cp4

londonpubman

On the face of it, much easier for LAB than LD.

But that means LAB gaining a seat in a by election...

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Do you think current polls are a good guide on this? I don't. It's just not how by-elections work, and hasn't been historically either.

Were we looking at a General Election, of course Wakefield would be the more likely seat to change hands. At a by-election, you're not choosing a Government (which is good for the LDs), it's a free hit, and the Lib Dems are bloody good at them. Labour meanwhile aren't, you have quite a few "never Labour" voters, and they do have more onus on them to make the case as a prospective Government. On balance, and contrary to the betting, I'd say Tiverton LD/Wakefield Con is more likely than Tiverton Con/Wakefield Lab.

I disagree, unless the Tories win all the Brexit Party voters and see a swing below the current UK polling average swing to Labour they will lose Wakefield.


LDs win by elections against the Tories if the Tories do not have a good local candidate unless the seat was already very marginal, pick a good local candidate and the Tories can hold Tiverton and Honiton. It was a poor candidate that cost them Shropshire North.

Labour were of course 2nd in Wakefield in 2019 and Tiverton and Honiton. The LDs were 3rd in the latter and it was a Leave seat

BlancheLivermore

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

What about a (burn-my) bra-gument?

Leon

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

She does seem to have a genderist agenda.

My favourite of these portmanteau words is “factsplain” which is, I kid you not, the process of winning an argument - unfairly! - by presenting actual facts which undermine the ludicrously weak argument of the gay/woman/trans/BAME at the other end

My guess is that it was invented as a joke, but I’ve seen it used in seriousness on Twitter. Stop factsplaining me!

TOPPING

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

She does seem to have a genderist agenda.

My favourite of these portmanteau words is “factsplain” which is, I kid you not, the process of winning an argument - unfairly! - by presenting actual facts which undermine the ludicrously weak argument of the gay/woman/trans/BAME at the other end

My guess is that it was invented as a joke, but I’ve seen it used in seriousness on Twitter. Stop factsplaining me!

I'm sure the company you keep when bemoaning the sneaky ruses of gay/women/trans/BAME folk is scintillating.

JosiasJessop

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

The other day I 'invented' a word whist talking to Mrs J about a mutual friend: "Coddult". An adult who is still coddled, and perhaps living with, their parents. A portmanteau for a coddled adult.

A couple of years ago I also came up with 'mantage': for a montage featuring a man doing manly things, after seeing an Ant Middleton advert. Sadly I found it was already in the Urban Dictionary.

EPG

Sanctions against Russian oil are more a sign of outrage than an effective weapon, since oil moves around quite easily, unlike real estate or factories. Russia is enjoying a huge trade surplus. It's right to reconsider sanctions if they don't have the intended outcome. But of course, some people get triggered by even acknowledging that the war will end through a settlement with Russia: presumably dreaming of Tommy Atkins's boots on the snow of Siberia.

Cyclefree

Well, I am sure you will be delighted to know that I got through my 2 sessions without anyone falling asleep or leaving the room, caught up with old colleagues, met some new people and managed to hand out a few business cards. So - maybe - some new interesting and lucrative work will follow.

But London transport - oof! - I'd forgotten how ghastly it is when it goes wrong. Jubilee Line subject to severe delays, Thameslink trains delayed etc: result = journey in took twice as long as it should have. We country yokels may have to drive everywhere (not true actually) but at least we don't have to endure that! Not a part of London life I miss, I must say.

Now off home to have a well-earned rest.

Scott_xP

If you’re confused about the Brexit protocol chat, here is 8 seconds which makes clear whose fault it is https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1526314177811341314/video/1

Leon

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

MaxPB

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

TOPPING

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

Isn't the problem that they have always played by the rules and we thought they wouldn't/shouldn't bother.

Like people who bump into non-compete clauses for the first time when they try to ignore them and realise they are deadly serious....

MaxPB

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

Isn't the problem that they have always played by the rules and we thought they wouldn't/shouldn't bother.

Like people who bump into non-compete clauses for the first time when they try to ignore them and realise they are deadly serious....

Maybe, though some people don't seem to have realised this, even now. They're still calling for the UK unilaterally declaring that we'll follow EU standards on various areas and then hoping that they'll do us a favour. That's not going to happen.

onepureradge

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Has there been a PB vote yet to see who is the smuggest most unlovable poster?
Are you twelve?

Applicant

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

Isn't the problem that they have always played by the rules and we thought they wouldn't/shouldn't bother.

Like people who bump into non-compete clauses for the first time when they try to ignore them and realise they are deadly serious....

The EU has definitely not "always played by the rules", it breaks them whenever it suits.

Cyclefree

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Your "beautiful place" appears to be a crate at the back of some barracks halfway up a mountain. Are you sure you haven't been put in the recycling unit by mistake?

SirNorfolkPassmore

YBarddCwsc said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Do you think current polls are a good guide on this? I don't. It's just not how by-elections work, and hasn't been historically either.

Were we looking at a General Election, of course Wakefield would be the more likely seat to change hands. At a by-election, you're not choosing a Government, it's a free hit, and the Lib Dems are bloody good at them. On balance, and contrary to the betting, I'd say Tiverton LD/Wakefield Con is more likely than Tiverton Con/Wakefield Lab.

I completely agree ... but you have rather let the LibDem cat out of the bag.

These LibDem by-election gains are borderline meaningless, a 'free hit'.

Fine, I don't mind. It keeps the LibDem activists busy and out of everyone's hair if they are pounding the rural lanes of Hon & Tiv, chivvying hapless residents & getting stung by nettles.

But, the point of the activity does seem rather obscure -- a bit like singing to your dog, or ironing.

Funnily enough, unlike more than a few others, I don't go on PB to toe the party line. So let's have less "cat out of the bag" nonsense. I'm a Lib Dem, have campaigned in by-elections, but don't see every win as presaging a fundamental realignment because I'm not bonkers. Chesham and Amersham doesn't mean the Tories won't win plenty of seats in the Home Counties at the General Election, and Shropshire North doesn't mean we'll come from 10% to win anything at all in 2024.

However, you overstate the case against by-elections. There is a middle ground between "earthquake" and "irrelevant".

Chesham & Amersham doesn't mean the south goes gold, but does provide a template for an effective campaign in similar sorts of area where the Lib Dems start in a decent place. It isn't at all irrelevant to Wimbledon, or Esher, or Hitchin, or South Cambs, or Guildford etc.

Shropshire North doesn't mean Brexit is dead as an issue but does give the Lib Dems a way to approach in areas that aren't as overwhelmingly Bollocks to Brexit as a lot of their seats - places like Eastbourne, Eastleigh, North Devon, Hazel Grove etc (all, note, areas of traditional strength - I'm not saying they'll come from nowhere as in Shropshire).

And Tiverton & Honiton may, depending how it turns out, help them re-establish themselves as the alternative in the SW - good news in a clutch of seats down there.

And all this is worth Tory MPs thinking about. The Lib Dems aren't going to be getting 30% swings in 2024 - that's fantasy. But a 10k majority starts looking quite a bit less comfy, and that's in quite a few different types of place.

RochdalePioneers

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

Your problem with your "trigger Article 16 then run away" argument is that it isn't what the government is doing. Even they aren't that crazy.

A fix is out there. You aren't proposing it.

MaxPB

Applicant said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

Isn't the problem that they have always played by the rules and we thought they wouldn't/shouldn't bother.

Like people who bump into non-compete clauses for the first time when they try to ignore them and realise they are deadly serious....

The EU has definitely not "always played by the rules", it breaks them whenever it suits.

Indeed and any examples of such are waved away as "whataboutery" or this new one "factsplaining". I understand why some are so desperate to ignore these actions from the EU as it completely shatters their world view of the EU being some kind of virtuous global force for good but it's becoming tiresome.

RochdalePioneers

bigjohnowls said:

dixiedean said:

algarkirk said:

A bit of value in LD to win Tiverton and Con to win Wakefield at 25/1?

Yes I think that's the value bet there.
Unlikely, mind. But much more than 4%.

Just done that bet.

I think Lab imposing a non local pen pusher in Wakefield with ultra Remoan tendancies reduces their likleyhood of winning

Still think kicking the Tories for cost of living crisis will probably trump that though

Non local? He worked for Mary Creagh. He's hardly been parachuted in. The CLP quit in protest because they couldn't select a trot. Bless them. Lovely to see Diane Abbott also wading in about CLPs being overruled. Just like she did when trot loon Webbe was being imposed in Leicester...

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

It was under Corbyn under Starmer social democrat like the SNP but Unionist like the Tories but unlike the SNP

You said the other day Liverpool is socialist cos it has Labour MPs right now. You can't change your mind just like that *snaps fingers* and expect to ibe treated as a serious and rigorous discutant.

Yes Liverpool is socialist as every MP it elected in 2019 was Labour when Labour was a socialist party under Corbyn.

Corbyn has now been replaced as Labour leader by the social democrat Labour leader Starmer but that does not change the fact Liverpool is a socialist city at all as it voted for Corbyn unlike the UK

It had a LibDem council for the 12 years to 2010. You don't elect LibDems year after year in preference over Liverpool's trot-leaning brand of Labourite if you are socialists.

I know you keep posting "Liverpool is the most socialist city". But as it is patently not true you just make yourself look even more buffoonish every time. I know that is a badge of honour in Bonzo the Clown's Tory Party but even so, have some dignity man.

Dura_Ace

Cyclefree said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Your "beautiful place" appears to be a crate at the back of some barracks halfway up a mountain. Are you sure you haven't been put in the recycling unit by mistake?

Mark 7 Golf or Skoda Octavia car key though. Our guy is keeping it real.

Unless the Golf is a R with a 5 cylinder DAZA swap from an Audi RS3 it's junk.

MISTY

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

Isn't the problem that they have always played by the rules and we thought they wouldn't/shouldn't bother.

Like people who bump into non-compete clauses for the first time when they try to ignore them and realise they are deadly serious....

The EU and its constituent governments uses 'international rules' to deal with those who they know follow them.

They use different methods with those that do not follow the rules, such as offering territory in return for the cessation of hostilities.

As ever with foreign policy, there are no principles, only interests.

RochdalePioneers

Two by-elections in one day?

Labour win in Wakefield and LibDems win in Zummerzet acca.

YBarddCwsc

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

YBarddCwsc said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

Do you think current polls are a good guide on this? I don't. It's just not how by-elections work, and hasn't been historically either.

Were we looking at a General Election, of course Wakefield would be the more likely seat to change hands. At a by-election, you're not choosing a Government, it's a free hit, and the Lib Dems are bloody good at them. On balance, and contrary to the betting, I'd say Tiverton LD/Wakefield Con is more likely than Tiverton Con/Wakefield Lab.

I completely agree ... but you have rather let the LibDem cat out of the bag.

These LibDem by-election gains are borderline meaningless, a 'free hit'.

Fine, I don't mind. It keeps the LibDem activists busy and out of everyone's hair if they are pounding the rural lanes of Hon & Tiv, chivvying hapless residents & getting stung by nettles.

But, the point of the activity does seem rather obscure -- a bit like singing to your dog, or ironing.

Funnily enough, unlike more than a few others, I don't go on PB to toe the party line. So let's have less "cat out of the bag" nonsense. I'm a Lib Dem, have campaigned in by-elections, but don't see every win as presaging a fundamental realignment because I'm not bonkers. Chesham and Amersham doesn't mean the Tories won't win plenty of seats in the Home Counties at the General Election, and Shropshire North doesn't mean we'll come from 10% to win anything at all in 2024.

However, you overstate the case against by-elections. There is a middle ground between "earthquake" and "irrelevant".

Chesham & Amersham doesn't mean the south goes gold, but does provide a template for an effective campaign in similar sorts of area where the Lib Dems start in a decent place. It isn't at all irrelevant to Wimbledon, or Esher, or Hitchin, or South Cambs, or Guildford etc.

Shropshire North doesn't mean Brexit is dead as an issue but does give the Lib Dems a way to approach in areas that aren't as overwhelmingly Bollocks to Brexit as a lot of their seats - places like Eastbourne, Eastleigh, North Devon, Hazel Grove etc (all, note, areas of traditional strength - I'm not saying they'll come from nowhere as in Shropshire).

And Tiverton & Honiton may, depending how it turns out, help them re-establish themselves as the alternative in the SW - good news in a clutch of seats down there.

And all this is worth Tory MPs thinking about. The Lib Dems aren't going to be getting 30% swings in 2024 - that's fantasy. But a 10k majority starts looking quite a bit less comfy, and that's in quite a few different types of place.

I don't have a party whose line I toe, or don't toe.

A 'free hit' is a 'free hit'. There is a question for the Tories (why are these people hitting me ?).

I am not sure much else can be deduced.

Selebian

onepureradge said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Has there been a PB vote yet to see who is the smuggest most unlovable poster?
Are you twelve?

I think Leon would come in higher than twelfth

Edit: the trick with Leon is to know when he's not being serious and/or self-deprecating in a self-aware, post-modern kind of way. Or, at least, to interpret his posts in that way, whatever his intention!

SeaShantyIrish2

Tuesday May 17, 2022 Primaries - Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania

When do polls close tonight?

> Kentucky = 6pm local time (EDT in most of state, CDT in western KY) = 11pm/12midnight UK time

> North Carolina = 7.30pm EDT = 12.30am UK

> Pennslyvania = 8pm EDT = 1pm UK

> Idaho = 8pm local time (MDT in southern ID, PDT in northern ID) = 3am/4am

> Oregon = 8pm local time (MDT in part of one county, PDT in rest OR) = 3am/4am UK

Pulpstar

Straight multiplying gives the following

Probability / Result / True odds assuming unrelated events / Midpoint of actual odds / Chance given known relatedness / Implied relatedness probability adjustment.

0.5987 LAB/LD 1.6704 1.595 0.6270 +0.0283
0.2535 LAB/C 3.944 5.25 0.1904 -0.063
0.0992 C/LD 10.08 19 0.0526 -0.046
0.0420 C/C 23.8 9 0.1111 +0.069

The odds from the individual tissues look about right to me.

Theuniondivvie

AS

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

I wonder in the event of a united Ireland if the loyalists would become more virulently enthusiastic about displaying their ‘kultur’?

Horrid thought, they may pop over even more frequently to Scotland for such displays. Worse, they may just cut their losses and move here. I think Arlene has said as much.

Carnyx

Selebian said:

onepureradge said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Has there been a PB vote yet to see who is the smuggest most unlovable poster?
Are you twelve?

I think Leon would come in higher than twelfth

Edit: the trick with Leon is to know when he's not being serious and/or self-deprecating in a self-aware, post-modern kind of way. Or, at least, to interpret his posts in that way, whatever his intention!

He is deeply woke?

AugustusCarp2

No, Mr RochdalePioneer, Tiv & Hon is in Devon, not Zummerzet. But your betting strategy looks sound to me.

MoonRabbit

Stark_Dawning said:

I wonder if the Tories have got some intelligence that Sir Keir will be exonerated by Durham police. If so then a trade war with the EU might be a good distraction from the contrast with Boris. Ultimate dead-cat manoeuvre?

I think you are absolutely right, starkers.

When in power it gives you some control over resetting the narrative to suit you, which is what the Tories are doing, choosing precise time and issue to control the narrative. Even hating Boris and wishing Tories ill, you gave to concede what is actually happening and how it likely plays out, so many posters can’t/won’t do this.

There will be some sort of deal? Of course it will end in a deal very similar to the UK governments proposals.

Will UK government get boost soon as the deal agreed? Of course they will, and we will know because Big G and HY in unison will remind us of this fact soon as deal agreed. St Bart Robert will also get a big boost because the government win with a solution they have pushed on PB for last 5 years (allegedly, I havn’t been around a year yet).

meanwhile the Great Patriotic War puts Labour on back foot now the commons is back in action? Yep, that’s that’s the beautiful timing of the Great Patriotic War.

And it obscures what’s going on in partygate, just as you said! Which will Boris red wallers care about more - supporting Boris in fight with EU or moan at him over Partygate?

OnlyLivingBoy

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Truss just explicitly said in the Commons that the Protocol was never intended to be set in stone.

Nor should it be. Evolution works. The Protocol in its 15th Article says how the Protocol can be changed by negotiations and in its 16th provides Safeguards to overwrite parts too. Both are entirely appropriate to use.

Its quite amusing to me how many people who deny my notion that post-Brexit Britain can be more nimble and less sclerotic are being horrified at post-Brexit Britain being nimble and not sclerotic.

It's the dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness that are the problem.

Dishonesty is putting up sanctions on Russia and then creating financial mechanisms to break them. The idea that the EU is some virtuous and completely honest organisation is completely ridiculous.

Siri, provide me with a textbook example of whataboutery.

But you want the UK to trust an inherently untrustworthy organisation. They have proven they are willing to stab Ukraine in the back so Germany can keep selling dishwashers. The evidence is clear that the EU can't be trusted and neither can we.

All along I've said that the UK-EU relationship needs to be a tightly defined set of rules. Trust, doing the other one a favour, or expecting a favour from either party is not going to happen, they are not an informal ally who we can rely on to help us when we need it. This isn't New Zealand and Canada loaning up a few hundred trade negotiators in 2017 and 2018, the EU is ultimately a formal ally with whom we have a trade deal and not a lot else.

Everyone needs to see our relationship with the EU through this lens and give up on the fanciful idea that if we do them a favour they might respond in kind. It's not going to happen.

The EU aren't the ones about to tear up an agreement they signed up to just three years ago. Whether the EU is a paragon of virtue or the epitome of evil (a question on which I have ventured no opinion) is irrelevant to the issue of whether the UK should be in the business of signing international treaties with its fingers crossed behind its back. It's a bad look for us and damaging to our ability to operate effectively in international affairs.

RochdalePioneers

AugustusCarp2 said:

No, Mr RochdalePioneer, Tiv & Hon is in Devon, not Zummerzet. But your betting strategy looks sound to me.

I stand corrected! Devon it is.

OldKingCole

Theuniondivvie said:

AS

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

I wonder in the event of a united Ireland if the loyalists would become more virulently enthusiastic about displaying their ‘kultur’?

Horrid thought, they may pop over even more frequently to Scotland for such displays. Worse, they may just cut their losses and move here. I think Arlene has said as much.

Back to Scotland you mean. Or, IIRC, the East of England.
After all,their forebears were Protestant settlers sent over to provide a loyal base

AugustusCarp2

In an attempt to identify the Tiv & Hon Lib Dem candidate, I have been on to the Devon Lib Dems website. Here it is...

https://devonlibdems.org.uk/cy/article/2021/1417288/liberal-democrats-growing-on-tiverton-town-council?display=Accessible

Most of it seems to be in Welsh! Not sure what's going on there.

Selebian

Carnyx said:

Selebian said:

onepureradge said:

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

Has there been a PB vote yet to see who is the smuggest most unlovable poster?
Are you twelve?

I think Leon would come in higher than twelfth

Edit: the trick with Leon is to know when he's not being serious and/or self-deprecating in a self-aware, post-modern kind of way. Or, at least, to interpret his posts in that way, whatever his intention!

He is deeply woke?

Well, Leon certainly deserves the pronoun 'they', given their abundance and changing gender expression over the years

OldKingCole

MoonRabbit said:

Stark_Dawning said:

I wonder if the Tories have got some intelligence that Sir Keir will be exonerated by Durham police. If so then a trade war with the EU might be a good distraction from the contrast with Boris. Ultimate dead-cat manoeuvre?

I think you are absolutely right, starkers.

When in power it gives you some control over resetting the narrative to suit you, which is what the Tories are doing, choosing precise time and issue to control the narrative. Even hating Boris and wishing Tories ill, you gave to concede what is actually happening and how it likely plays out, so many posters can’t/won’t do this.

There will be some sort of deal? Of course it will end in a deal very similar to the UK governments proposals.

Will UK government get boost soon as the deal agreed? Of course they will, and we will know because Big G and HY in unison will remind us of this fact soon as deal agreed. St Bart Robert will also get a big boost because the government win with a solution they have pushed on PB for last 5 years (allegedly, I havn’t been around a year yet).

meanwhile the Great Patriotic War puts Labour on back foot now the commons is back in action? Yep, that’s that’s the beautiful timing of the Great Patriotic War.

And it obscures what’s going on in partygate, just as you said! Which will Boris red wallers care about more - supporting Boris in fight with EU or moan at him over Partygate?

Ms R, surely it kicks the Partygate can down the road, to a point where it lies discarded in the gutter.

Applicant

AugustusCarp2 said:

In an attempt to identify the Tiv & Hon Lib Dem candidate, I have been on to the Devon Lib Dems website. Here it is...

https://devonlibdems.org.uk/cy/article/2021/1417288/liberal-democrats-growing-on-tiverton-town-council?display=Accessible

Most of it seems to be in Welsh! Not sure what's going on there.

If you change the "cy" in the URL to "en" then you get the English version.

Carnyx

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AS

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

I wonder in the event of a united Ireland if the loyalists would become more virulently enthusiastic about displaying their ‘kultur’?

Horrid thought, they may pop over even more frequently to Scotland for such displays. Worse, they may just cut their losses and move here. I think Arlene has said as much.

Back to Scotland you mean. Or, IIRC, the East of England.
After all,their forebears were Protestant settlers sent over to provide a loyal base

They would certainly save on trips to Ibrox if theyt moved to Larkhall and Ayrshire.

RochdalePioneers

EDIT - wrong constituency

OldKingCole

AugustusCarp2 said:

In an attempt to identify the Tiv & Hon Lib Dem candidate, I have been on to the Devon Lib Dems website. Here it is...

https://devonlibdems.org.uk/cy/article/2021/1417288/liberal-democrats-growing-on-tiverton-town-council?display=Accessible

Most of it seems to be in Welsh! Not sure what's going on there.

If it was in Cornish ......

OnlyLivingBoy

Leon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Leon said:

BlancheLivermore said:

kamski said:

If this is the article you are talking about (and it seems to be the only one on the guardian's website that contains the word "hepeat")
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/may/16/hepeating-manterrupting-mansplaining-men-repeating-women-taking-credit

aren't you somewhat misrepresenting it? it's obviously supposed to be a tongue-in-cheek article - as are all the Pass Notes series, and it doesn't seem to actually contain any examples?

You must surely mean a completely different article that I can't find on the guardian website

Himterrupting would be better than manterrupting.

Wow.. Manterrupting doesn't get underlined as misspelt!

I’d like to take credit for just this minute inventing the word “quimgument” which deftly captures the way some women seek to end a losing argument by saying “you’re bullying a woman so I am going to ignore you and also you’re wrong but don’t bother answering you awful man because remember I have ovaries”

@Heathener does it all the time

If this happens to you frequently enough for you to invent a word for it, perhaps that ought to tell you something.

It’s never happened to me because I always win arguments (in my own head) through the use of random photos of me drinking alcohol in beautiful places and saying Look I have a better life then you hahahaha and then I talk about something else




Did I mention my new dislike of Liverpool FC?

I retire defeated by the force of your intellect.

Morris_Dancer

I must be off, but welcome back, Mr. Carp.

MoonRabbit

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

“ On current polls “. On ONS maths? Surely each of these red wall islands of Boris fans are the sort of places that will surrender hard to Starmer, buck National trends especially on a general election night? Surely that is what your great general election hope is based on. Why are you spinning against what you hope to happen at the GE?

Add in local Labour Party not campaigning for the Labour candidate, might even stand a splitter now they are not party members, National polling and ONS doesn’t come into this, local factors, such as Labour vote, even if gone up a bit, neatly split between Corbyn and “Starmer Remain” candidates in a seat Boris already won, two Tory by election wins in same night cannot be ruled out here.

HYUFD

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20144208.stirling-council-labour-strikes-grubby-deal-tories-lock-snp/

Labour-Tory deal in Stirling Council. Not a formal alliance, but not exactly the impression Mr Sarwar gave before the election of no coalitions with other parties.

However, in the wider scope of things suich deals are unremarkable - except, as noted above, in Mr Sarwar's overt opposotion.

Labour and the Tories are both Unionist parties, it makes sense they would work together if they can keep out the Nationalist SNP

You keep telling us Labour is a socialist party, though ...

It was under Corbyn under Starmer social democrat like the SNP but Unionist like the Tories but unlike the SNP

You said the other day Liverpool is socialist cos it has Labour MPs right now. You can't change your mind just like that *snaps fingers* and expect to ibe treated as a serious and rigorous discutant.

Yes Liverpool is socialist as every MP it elected in 2019 was Labour when Labour was a socialist party under Corbyn.

Corbyn has now been replaced as Labour leader by the social democrat Labour leader Starmer but that does not change the fact Liverpool is a socialist city at all as it voted for Corbyn unlike the UK

It had a LibDem council for the 12 years to 2010. You don't elect LibDems year after year in preference over Liverpool's trot-leaning brand of Labourite if you are socialists.

I know you keep posting "Liverpool is the most socialist city". But as it is patently not true you just make yourself look even more buffoonish every time. I know that is a badge of honour in Bonzo the Clown's Tory Party but even so, have some dignity man.

And as I told you on Sunday the only reason it had a LD council in the New Labour years was because Charles Kennedy positioned the LDs to the left of New Labour. It did not go Tory in the Blair years, it went to the LDs who were then to the left of Labour.

Throughout most of the 1980s and early 1990s Liverpool elected Trotskyite Labour councils, even with Derek Hatton as Deputy Leader who was too leftwing even for Kinnock as it is a socialist city. The fact it has elected Labour controlled councils again ever since Blair left as Labour leader and PM only confirms that.

NickPalmer

I wonder if the Shropshire North result hasn't set the bar too high, to the point that we expect the LibDems to win any by-election anywhere in a rural area, even when a 23% swing is needed. If they merely come close it shouldn't really be a shock.

Labour ought to win Wakefield unless the ructions in the CLP have more impact than I'd expect - e.g. by a Labour councillor standing as a splitter. I doubt if they'll go that far (I'm not bothered there by TUSC, Galloway etc.).

HYUFD

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

On current polls the Tories will certainly lose the Wakefield by election to Labour whoever their candidate is.

However they would still hold Tiverton and Honiton even on the current polling but to do so they need the right candidate eg a local female councillor to prevent the LDs gaining traction

“ On current polls “. On ONS maths? Surely each of these red wall islands of Boris fans are the sort of places that will surrender hard to Starmer, buck National trends especially on a general election night? Surely that is what your great general election hope is based on. Why are you spinning against what you hope to happen at the GE?

Add in local Labour Party not campaigning for the Labour candidate, might even stand a splitter now they are not party members, National polling and ONS doesn’t come into this, local factors, such as Labour neatly split between Corbyn and Starmer candidates in a seat Boris already won, two Tory by election wins in same night cannot be ruled out here.

If the Tories won both by elections the odds are they would win the next general election and Starmer could face a leadership challenge

HYUFD

Theuniondivvie said:

AS

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

I wonder in the event of a united Ireland if the loyalists would become more virulently enthusiastic about displaying their ‘kultur’?

Horrid thought, they may pop over even more frequently to Scotland for such displays. Worse, they may just cut their losses and move here. I think Arlene has said as much.

No, there won't be a united Ireland and if the loyalist areas of Northern Ireland were forced into the Republic against their will the UVF terrorist campaign would take off again which it is already threatening to do over the Irish Sea border.

Most Ulster Protestants are of Scots origin though yes

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/uvf-is-actively-planning-to-target-more-irish-politicians-41492302.html

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AS

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Northern_Al said:

Despite the endless commentary on here, I strongly suspect that the typical mainland voter is disengaged from the battle over the NI protocol, and it won't swing more than a handful of votes whatever happens.

Unless serious violence breaks out in NI. Then there would be a concerted attempt by the government to blame the EU. However, I'm not convinced that would work. People may be more inclined to blame the government whose doorstep the violence erupts on.

Yes, agreed. Northern Ireland is a distant country of which we know little, I'm afraid. Arguments over its future will be seen by Leavers as proof the untrustworthiness of the EU and by Remainers as proof of the awfulness of Boris, but if the province were to secede and join the ROI or just quietly go away the vast majority on the mainland would neither notice nor care.

The Scots would notice, for sure.

I wonder in the event of a united Ireland if the loyalists would become more virulently enthusiastic about displaying their ‘kultur’?

Horrid thought, they may pop over even more frequently to Scotland for such displays. Worse, they may just cut their losses and move here. I think Arlene has said as much.

No, there won't be a united Ireland

As you repeatedly tell us that the monarchy will last another 1000 years then I will use the same argument back at you.

Of course there will be a united Ireland. One day.