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edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The rolling IndyRef polling thread…New online poll from ICM has YES 8% ahead

A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    What a corker - is this confirmed?
  • willcookson
    willcookson Posts: 1
    Looks like the Telegraph has reversed - it has NO 8 points ahead on its website!
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    willcookson said:

    Looks like the Telegraph has reversed - it has NO 8 points ahead on its website!

    Where? There is an article about the Survation poll, but I don't see one for this poll.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    4th. And the bum is ever squeakier. ;)
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    ICM, the gold standard....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Keep calm and remember you're a Unionist.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Doesn't the Sunday Telegraph publish a unique monthly ICM Wisdom Index poll, and is this an online poll rather than a phone poll? Is this a specifically targeted online Scottish Indy Ref poll from ICM, or is it part of their more general regular Wisdom index poll?!
  • alex
    alex Posts: 244
    What are the Telegraph playing at. Are they flagging a sensational poll in advance so that the news orgs are geared up for the official bombshell when it is released?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    willcookson said:

    Looks like the Telegraph has reversed - it has NO 8 points ahead on its website!

    That's Survation
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    willcookson said:

    Looks like the Telegraph has reversed - it has NO 8 points ahead on its website!


    The piece is here

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11092495/Whatever-happens-nothing-will-ever-be-the-same-again.html
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally TSE I've asked the article writer the same question - he doesn't seem to use Twitter much though.
  • Monkeys
    Monkeys Posts: 798
    Lawrence Leshan's "How to Meditate," is a good read.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited September 2014
    alex said:

    What are the Telegraph playing at. Are they flagging a sensational poll in advance so that the news orgs are geared up for the official bombshell when it is released?

    I think it is a case of premature publication.

    Even PB has done something similar in the past.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    It does seem odd to get two polls so far apart.

    Even if the "true" position was 50/50, they would both be outside a 3% margin of error!
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    ICM - stinker for NO.

    The breakup of the UK is imminent folks...

    People have talked about Cameron's position if YES wins, what about Milliband? - surely he has to resign too?
  • alex
    alex Posts: 244
    But if the comments are correct they've not just published early but edited it. So they were aware of it hours ago and could have pulled it.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex said:

    What are the Telegraph playing at. Are they flagging a sensational poll in advance so that the news orgs are geared up for the official bombshell when it is released?

    I think it is a case of premature publication.

    Even PB has done something similar in the past.
    Let's hope so or you and Mike are in for a bit of embarrassment tonight!
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited September 2014
    With Yes leading by 8 with the Gold Standard I think we can take it that the game is up for the Union.

    EDIT - just seen the sample size, so not as bleak given the margin of error; but nevertheless very bad news for No. That must be why they rushed out their own poll.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The last ICM online Indy ref poll in August had No ahead by 10%.

    I think this is an outlier.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    BlokeNHSF...UP UKIP ‏@Bnhsfup 12m
    ​ISIS and moderate Syrian rebels strike truce… with Al Qaeda’s help – reports — RT News http://rt.com/news/187580-isis-deal-syrian-rebels/#.VBRjZVCqLKw.twitter …
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    Bet Cameron is carping himself, as he would be in a bit of difficulty if he lost the union.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    uKipaLotmoreIan ‏@UkipaLotMoreIan 10m
    Camoron makes it law 2 add £1blln mth to UK debt
    Tory MPs' fury as increasing interntnl aid budget becomes law http://dailym.ai/1qPEGKO
    #UKIP
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    SouthamObserver said:

    With Yes leading by 8 with the Gold Standard I think we can take it that the game is up for the Union.

    Let's wait and see what the others say.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Freggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex said:

    What are the Telegraph playing at. Are they flagging a sensational poll in advance so that the news orgs are geared up for the official bombshell when it is released?

    I think it is a case of premature publication.

    Even PB has done something similar in the past.
    Let's hope so or you and Mike are in for a bit of embarrassment tonight!
    I was right. I was right. Phew.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/
  • jimmyczz
    jimmyczz Posts: 25
    I heard an interesting piece on radio on Friday. They talked to 2 heads of polling organisations who were not confident at all about their polling. There was special discontent attached to telephone polling as the suggestion was that few in the 18-35 age group had land lines which distorted the picture completely. They both suggested their was a huge chance of them getting egg on their faces come polling day. On bbc radio player somewhere if you are interested.
  • alex
    alex Posts: 244
    SeanT said:

    Ah. See here. smaller sample size. But still

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

    Sounds like a severe rogue poll, on a small sample. 50:50 split on financial consequences sounds very dubious in the light of all the recent warnings and market actions.
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    BlokeNHSF...UP UKIP ‏@Bnhsfup 12m
    ​ISIS and moderate Syrian rebels strike truce… with Al Qaeda’s help – reports — RT News http://rt.com/news/187580-isis-deal-syrian-rebels/#.VBRjZVCqLKw.twitter …

    Any reason you keep posting this? It doesn't make it any more interesting.
  • Jebediah_Beane1
    Jebediah_Beane1 Posts: 25
    Here's confirmation from John Curtice

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’

    They're in for a disappointment.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    jimmyczz said:

    I heard an interesting piece on radio on Friday. They talked to 2 heads of polling organisations who were not confident at all about their polling. There was special discontent attached to telephone polling as the suggestion was that few in the 18-35 age group had land lines which distorted the picture completely. They both suggested their was a huge chance of them getting egg on their faces come polling day. On bbc radio player somewhere if you are interested.

    It was Martin Boon of ICM and Anthony Wells of YouGov/UKPR
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Do the polling organisations know what they are doing ? Online panels may work if it is built up over some time. Scotland is less than 10% of the UK population. How representative the sample is, even after past vote recall or whatever they do, very doubtful.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Its the Telegraph ICM online poll vs Guardian ICM phone poll!


    Professor John Curtice - "ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company’s poll in Saturday’s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly during the course of the last twelve months for Scotsman Newspapers, and indeed has a smaller sample size (705) than is common in any poll. That smaller sample size means that it is more vulnerable to the possibility that its results deviate from the true picture as a result of chance.

    So the fact that this poll has the Yes side well ahead comes with a substantial health warning."
    SeanT said:

    Ah. See here. smaller sample size. But still

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    hucks67 said:

    Bet Cameron is carping himself, as he would be in a bit of difficulty if he lost the union.

    He might not be the PM of FUK.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    sample size
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
    19% for UKIP looks like an outlier, and accordingly, hits the Conservative share.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
  • jam2809
    jam2809 Posts: 62
    The sample size of the new ICM poll isn't THAT small - ~700 rather than ~900-1000. Will increase the margin of error by only a small amount. Still looks like an outlier, however.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Your comparing apples and oranges. Read Professor Curtice in What Scotland Thinks - ICM Put Yes Ahead – Perhaps
    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
    So has their online panel been infiltrated? We have so many mickey mouse pollsters in this campaign, I really thought we could rely on ICM.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
    What Union?
    Oh God, your posts are going to give me whiplash tonight aren't they?

    Keep Calm
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
    I mean Aston Villa.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
    So has their online panel been infiltrated? We have so many mickey mouse pollsters in this campaign, I really thought we could rely on ICM.
    One out of every 20 polls is an outlier, I think is that one.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
    I mean Aston Villa.
    Voodoo team
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
    What Union?
    Oh God, your posts are going to give me whiplash tonight aren't they?

    Keep Calm
    I'm remarkably serene, considering. I also scooped you on the Curtice blog!
    I'm watching Doctor Who, I'm distracted.
  • buyshirts
    buyshirts Posts: 2
    Who has carried the poll out for The Observer and are there any comparison numbers around?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    SeanT said:

    dr_spyn said:

    hucks67 said:

    Bet Cameron is carping himself, as he would be in a bit of difficulty if he lost the union.

    He might not be the PM of FUK.
    He will go down in history, though.
    Like the Titanic...
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053

    All hail the king! pic.twitter.com/Q10SNCGuve

    — פטריק פולוק (@redbrasco) September 13, 2014
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    My confidence in ICM is being slightly shaken by this. The indication is that seems to have been done on pretty much the same days as they got the51:49 result. The difference is well outside any margin of error.

    Am I missing something?

    Sample size and well, it is an online poll.
    So has their online panel been infiltrated? We have so many mickey mouse pollsters in this campaign, I really thought we could rely on ICM.
    read below, none of the pollsters are confident.

    Really just treat the polls as background music until we get to Thursday and the actual poll.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    buyshirts said:

    Who has carried the poll out for The Observer and are there any comparison numbers around?

    Opinium, and it is their first published Indyref poll
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    Yes totally.

    Nobody knows and everyone lies.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited September 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    I'm going to predict either Yes or No will win.

    I will be proven right
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited September 2014
    New IndyRef Poll Alert


    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 29s

    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    The way all these polls have gone back and forth for the past couple of weeks, we could have several days worth of polls showing a consistent Yes or No, and would surely still have no clear idea. I hope any non-Brits who have no investment in the outcome are at least finding this entertaining, as it surely is that.
  • kieran
    kieran Posts: 77
    A key point surely is that ICM have their 'gold standard' reputation from their telephone polling rather than their online polling.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    edited September 2014
    Twitter
    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 1m
    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 2m
    Please stay say English & Welsh as 63% voters in England&Wales want Scots to stay. Just 23% want them to go http://bit.ly/1nTpdpz #indyref
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Such a parcel of rogue polls in a nation.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    Absolutely. All the pollsters are struggling with weightings in a matter that goes across parties (except the tories perhaps) and for which they have no precedent. We have the problem of an exceptional number of new voters as a result of the change in voting age and the efforts to encourage registration. I suspect the % of new voters will be a record.

    We are facing exceptional turnout with many, many people voting who normally don't bother.

    We are all living in a single marginal constituency.

    It seems inevitable that both sides will go into Thursday with polls they like and polls they don't want to talk about. If it wasn't so serious it would be quite funny.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 29s

    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb

    Hah. Bastard. Beat me.

    I'm calling ICM a rogue....

    Wait until we see the Panelbase at 9.30pm

    Edit: Before anyone reads too much in to that, I've not seen an embargoed copy
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)
    TheWatcher said:

    'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’

    They're in for a disappointment.

    Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    dr_spyn said:

    Such a parcel of rogue polls in a nation.

    Very good.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
    19% for UKIP looks like an outlier, and accordingly, hits the Conservative share.

    I can well remember when 8% for UKIP, then 10% for UKIP, were considered blatant outliers, @SeanF, Pull the other one, it's got bells on!
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    Yes.

    It's clearly uncharted territory for the pollsters.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    NO! Ooops, I mean YES!
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 29s

    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb

    Hah. Bastard. Beat me.

    I'm calling ICM a rogue....

    Wait until we see the Panelbase at 9.30pm

    Edit: Before anyone reads too much in to that, I've not seen an embargoed copy
    I'm surprised Murdoch hasn't leaked by now.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    James Mackenzie ‏@mrjamesmack 5 mins
    New ICM/Telegraph #indyref poll has Yes 54%, No 46%. Smaller sample means margin of error at 95% confidence is ±3.7%, not 3% as usual.

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    I am surprised at the big price for YES

    Even though we have polls showing 4-6 pt leads for No, these have been commonplace for a long while

    But now we have some polls saying Yes is in front, and it doesnt affect the market.. weird
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Lots of polls, so take your pick. - on such occasions I really don't envy the punters. G'luck ; )

  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Opinium had one of the worst results at the Euros in dealing with the Tory/UKIP split (nearly 7.5 points)

    Pretty accurate with Labour, mind.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)
    TheWatcher said:

    'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’

    They're in for a disappointment.

    Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.
    They'll be free to use it.

    But without the BoE as lender of last resort (That's the small print of Salmond's repeated assertion)

  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    This means Labour would win even in England & Wales.
  • volcanopete
    volcanopete Posts: 2,078
    John Curtice.ICM poll comes with a "substantial health warning".

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 29s

    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb

    Hah. Bastard. Beat me.

    I'm calling ICM a rogue....

    Wait until we see the Panelbase at 9.30pm

    Edit: Before anyone reads too much in to that, I've not seen an embargoed copy
    I'm surprised Murdoch hasn't leaked by now.
    Indeed, here's his tweets though

    Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 1h

    Cameron and Brown have promised so much more devolution if No wins, Britain will look like a federation. Bet many Tories outraged.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???
  • No_Offence_Alan
    No_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,118
    edited September 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    I'm going to predict either Yes or No will win.

    I will be proven right
    Have the two Blairs agreed how small a margin of victory would trigger a re-count?

  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch 29s

    Opinium/Observer #indyref poll: YES 47%, NO 53% http://bit.ly/1m2eCx3 pic.twitter.com/Nh9PM6KCqb

    Hah. Bastard. Beat me.

    I'm calling ICM a rogue....

    Wait until we see the Panelbase at 9.30pm

    Edit: Before anyone reads too much in to that, I've not seen an embargoed copy
    I'm surprised Murdoch hasn't leaked by now.
    Indeed, here's his tweets though

    Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · 1h

    Cameron and Brown have promised so much more devolution if No wins, Britain will look like a federation. Bet many Tories outraged.
    well as we know Ruperts tweets aren't so much about Scotland as Rupert.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    MikeK said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    I said earlier, Tories taking one for the Union
    19% for UKIP looks like an outlier, and accordingly, hits the Conservative share.

    I can well remember when 8% for UKIP, then 10% for UKIP, were considered blatant outliers, @SeanF, Pull the other one, it's got bells on!
    Me too.. its great that UKIP almost touch 20% now and its barely mentioned.

    A minimum of one MP and the Euros to boot, 2014 has been UKIP's year as far as English political success goes
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???

    If it is football related, I don't care
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)
    TheWatcher said:

    'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’

    They're in for a disappointment.

    Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.
    We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.

  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    I got the impression from Curtice that he'd seen all of today's polls and was thus prepared to politely call the ICM on line poll a bag of shite.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    If Panelbase shows YES in the lead by more than 1 point, it's all over bar the shouting.
    Panelbase has never shown YES in the lead.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The prices on YES are surely, now, insanely generous.

    SeanT said:

    Betfair still hasn't twigged. Money to be made there for savvy bettors.

    Exceptit's only 15 min till the Opinium poll - if it's bad for Yes then the price will go out event further (depsite a one off poll froma company with no track record in this referendum being completely useless at this stage).

    This is insanity gone mad.

    Now that you mention Opinium can i point out Labour have an 8 point lead with them http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/13/labour-stretches-lead-tories-eight-point-opinium-observer-poll
    Strange that Labour's good summer of polling continues to increase even as the No lead evaporates. The prospect of losing the union meaning people in England are leaning more toward Labour, fearful of perpetual Torydom? (notwithstanding England has voted Labour many times before)
    TheWatcher said:

    'A clear majority (69%) feel that ‘Scotland should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum’

    They're in for a disappointment.

    Well they can keep it, surely, it's just the details of what that would entail and how much it would cost them that differs.
    We haven't seen an increase in Labour support. But, UKIP are currently averaging 15%.

    Well that works out as positive for Labour as well. They'll need that if Scotland votes Yes.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???

    If it is football related, I don't care
    Liverpool FC ( friends of Carthage )

    Aston Villa FC ( followers of Caesar )

    just sayin' :-)
  • alex
    alex Posts: 244
    BTW are the pollsters remembering to poll the dead? ;)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anyone think we could reach the 18th without any clear idea of who's going to win?

    I'm going to predict either Yes or No will win.

    I will be proven right
    Have the two Blairs agreed how small a margin of victory would trigger a re-count?

    Blair Jenkins plan is If No wins, whatever the size of victory, automatic recount and No voters will have out themselves so they can be visited by Yes Scotland supporters to confirm they voted no.
  • PAW
    PAW Posts: 1,074
    I don't think we are outraged, its win win. If Scotland goes its fine, if devo max removes Scottish MPs (and hopefully Welsh and NI) it is even better.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???

    If it is football related, I don't care
    Yes it was pointing out sporting life having tipped 2-2 for arsenal game, chadli to be first goal scorer then also had villa to win too at 11-1 as well
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The main Yes/No market on Betfair doesn't appear to have a refresh facility which is unfortunate in trying to keep track of where the money is going and how much.
    Currently there's not much movement with NO at around the 5.0 mark and YES at around 1.25.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    alex said:

    BTW are the pollsters remembering to poll the dead? ;)

    They key will be which campaign can mobilize the dead vote, as they surely outnumber the living, and I am sure dead people have been listed as voting before.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???

    If it is football related, I don't care
    Liverpool's season will pick up when Suarez comes back from suspension.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MikeK said:

    If Panelbase shows YES in the lead by more than 1 point, it's all over bar the shouting.
    Panelbase has never shown YES in the lead.

    Yes they have, last year.
  • Howard
    Howard Posts: 97
    On Curtice's blog it says that the two ICM polls were on the same period. One was by phone (the Yes=51) and one by internet (No=54). The sample size difference complicates the comparison, but it suggests that the internet polls are better for Yes. Panelbase is an internet poll, so I am expecting it to be better for Yes.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited September 2014
    I think it's still too close to call and will be up to Thursday night.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    What was my last post before I went out


    Tse


    ???

    If it is football related, I don't care
    Liverpool FC ( friends of Carthage )

    Aston Villa FC ( followers of Caesar )

    just sayin' :-)
    Actually, I've got a piece, hopefully going up on Monday or Tuesday, where I mention, Churchill, Chamberlain, Caesar, Hannibal, and ask who their modern day equivalents are.
  • NorthBriton
    NorthBriton Posts: 51
    This is doing my head in. Anyway, have come in after 8 hours spent standing in a high street in Moray for BT.

    All I can say is that - trying to be as dispassionate as possible - we were extremely gratified by the reception. Although our team was smaller than the Nats, we were joined by several supporters who came along quite spontaneously. And we seemed to get more people on to ur stand and received a gratifiying number of thumbs ups from passing motorists. Maybe it was just relief at seeing that we haven't given up. It should be said that the Yes campaign is hugely more visible but the very assertive nature of it is causing resentment. Similar feedback from other locations where we have had a presence.

    I dunno. I go out and come back reassured. Then I come onto PB and end up very non-reassured.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    It's almost like people have forgotten the Ipsos-Mori had a poll out yesterday showing the Tories ahead.
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