And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
If you're running the UK government, how does investing in Scotland look when you know very close to half of it's residents want to go, even "on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies" ?
A couple who come close to divorce will spend an eternity learning to trust and believe in each other again, and in the meantime they'll tread carefully, cautiously and won't properly commit to each other. They'll hedge their bets.
The damage done to Scotland by this will be long term and serious,
Here we go again.
I'm not massively pro 'yes' but if I were on the fence it's all this scaremongering that would tip me strongly in their favour. Some of it smacks of pro-English bullying and if it's turning me off it must be affecting others. All other factors being equal, the earth's still going to be spinning come Friday and Scotland will do fine whatever the result.
-Yes you are -No it wouldn't -No it musn't -No it isn't -No it won't
Please.
The earth's not still going to spinning come Friday?
Oh yeah, forgot that one. Consider that one a 'Yes it will'. 'No it won't' was for Scotland doing fine whatever the result.
Evening all and a sober reminder for you. Roughly 300,000 have registered to vote for the 1st time and only 60-70,000 of them are 16/17 year olds. The others haven't registered to vote NO. They have especially registered to vote so we can be fairly sure they will be voting YES.
It definitely looks as though the polls have told us it is a dead heat right now.
The continued threats from banks, businesses etc will only harden the resolve of many undecided voters to vote YES. Scots do not like being told what to do by anyone, let alone people they see as "English" or "foreigners".
Today I was attending the AGM of the Association of Highland Clans and Societies in the Town House in Inverness. At one point we could hardly hear ourselves speak. Apparently the YES side had a flash mob in the street, shouting and singing and handing out balloons etc.
Don't understand how people can say the referendum is 'neck and neck' as Casino Royale does.
SInce the 2nd debate we've had 12 polls.
Yes have had a lead in only 2 of those polls.
And on average No has had a lead of 3 points.
That is a narrow lead, one which might be overturned or just proven to be wrong because the pollsters are making systematic errors, but it does show a lead for no. It's not neck and neck.
Curtice's "poll of polls" with todays 4 polls is unchanged from Friday. They appear to have cancelled each other out exactly so you can interpret that as no change over the 24 hours.
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.
Your yawnsome 'hard right' dig aside, I actually agree. There can and should be no formal alliance -it will damage UKIP as a growing force to be absorbed back into The Conservative Party. The cat is out of the bag, and it isn't going back in. It suits conservatism extremely well to have two opposing parties, who can appeal to different audiences.
What phrase would you use aside from 'hard right'? The 'right' is too large to be applicable (it includes too large a range of opinion), and I did not want to use 'far right' because of the obvious connotations.
conservatives.
Are you talking about conservative in the small 'c' sense (especially social)? If so, I think you are wrong. I'd like to think of myself as conservative in the fact that I like change to be gradual; large, sudden changes tend to just f things up.
Hence the move to gay marriage suited me fine: firstly civil partnerships; then when the world did not end, a move towards more equality. It's the same with women clergy and bishops.
Conservatism (small c) does not mean no change. As society changes, so does conservatism.
Ok, I am confused are DNVs from the 2011 election really that unlikely to vote. They were 50% of the population, why are they being weighted to 14% of the Opinium poll results?
Isn't that 14%, 14% of those who did vote in 2011, but can't remember who they voted for/refused to say?
It would not be the first time I've badly misread a table of data but the table on the first page say the following:
2011 Scottish election vote Scottish National Party (SNP) 317 373 Scottish region Scottish Labour Party 230 258 Scottish Conservative Party 125 114 Scottish Liberal Democrats 72 65 Other 45 11 Did not vote 180 158 Prefer not to say 22 21 Can't remember 64 55
158/1055 = 14%. Isn't that correct?
I'm at a loss to explain that. I'll have a look at what other pollsters do, to see if this is common practise or not.
They explain it on the methodology page, can't belieev I missed it first time round
To match Scotland’s political balance, we used the results of the 2011 Scottish parliament elections and the 2010 UK general election.
Because of the way online polling works, the sort of people who sign up to take part in surveys tend to be more politically enthusiastic than normal and reported turnout in general elections is always far above the true figure. Turnout in the 2011 Scottish election was around 50% yet 78% of our sample say they voted and similar problems occur in all online samples.
Weighting the sample to match the true turnout figure would risk counting the 22% of the electorate who are non-voters as more than double their actual weight so, as a compromise, we leave the proportion of past voters in the sample as it is but weight their proportions to match the results of the election.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
If you're running the UK government, how does investing in Scotland look when you know very close to half of it's residents want to go, even "on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies" ?
A couple who come close to divorce will spend an eternity learning to trust and believe in each other again, and in the meantime they'll tread carefully, cautiously and won't properly commit to each other. They'll hedge their bets.
The damage done to Scotland by this will be long term and serious,
Here we go again.
I'm not massively pro 'yes' but if I were on the fence it's all this scaremongering that would tip me strongly in their favour. Some of it smacks of pro-English bullying and if it's turning me off it must be affecting others. All other factors being equal, the earth's still going to be spinning come Friday and Scotland will do fine whatever the result.
-Yes you are -No it wouldn't -No it musn't -No it isn't -No it won't
Please.
The earth's not still going to spinning come Friday?
Oh yeah, forgot that one. Consider that one a 'Yes it will'. 'No it won't' was for Scotland doing fine whatever the result.
And how does getting 51% of the population to back independence on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies sound as the launch pad for a new nation?
If you're running the UK government, how does investing in Scotland look when you know very close to half of it's residents want to go, even "on the back of a pack of lies and fantasies" ?
A couple who come close to divorce will spend an eternity learning to trust and believe in each other again, and in the meantime they'll tread carefully, cautiously and won't properly commit to each other. They'll hedge their bets.
The damage done to Scotland by this will be long term and serious, particularly for the financial services industry which currently employs well over 100K Scots.
There are no winners from this but there are degrees of losers.
The irony from all this is that, if Scots vote YES, it won't be rich English Tories who suffer - some might even gain as Scottish money and business pours into London, fleeing the chaos.
Those who suffer will be the poor in England (as inflation rises on a falling pound) and the poor in Scotland. And all the workers in Scotland.
But they'll be free, and for many that's enough.
If it is a 'Yes', and it proves to be a disaster for Scotland, voters rich or poor can never say that they weren't warned of what might happen.
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
I'm sure having his child die at such a young age will help to put things in to perspective...
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I like Cameron fairly well, and though I wish them well to make politics interesting, I have no intention of voting UKIP (for what it is worth, I've almost always voted LD at various elections, though I wanted a Cameron led LD-Con coalition government in 2010), and I am frankly amazed that you see so the possibility as so unlikely. I think Cameron will resign, but I can envisage him wanting to stay on...but him not being ousted? That seems highly improbable - Cameron has so little control of his own party and activists, legions of whom appear to wish they were UKIP and have forced Cameron to the right or defeated him several times. I'm to believe those people, and others distraught at the loss of the Union, would not force Cameron out?
There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
Can't take any more of this. Off to the hills tomorrow as its a good forecast for the North West Highlands. Things always look better from the summit of a Munro or Corbett.
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.
Your yawnsome 'hard right' dig aside, I actually agree. There can and should be no formal alliance -it will damage UKIP as a growing force to be absorbed back into The Conservative Party. The cat is out of the bag, and it isn't going back in. It suits conservatism extremely well to have two opposing parties, who can appeal to different audiences.
What phrase would you use aside from 'hard right'? The 'right' is too large to be applicable (it includes too large a range of opinion), and I did not want to use 'far right' because of the obvious connotations.
conservatives.
Are you talking about conservative in the small 'c' sense (especially social)? If so, I think you are wrong. I'd like to think of myself as conservative in the fact that I like change to be gradual; large, sudden changes tend to just f things up.
Hence the move to gay marriage suited me fine: firstly civil partnerships; then when the world did not end, a move towards more equality. It's the same with women clergy and bishops.
Conservatism (small c) does not mean no change. As society changes, so does conservatism.
Free Trade then Protectionism. Pro Empire then ready to dissolve it. Anti EU, then Pro then Anti. Plenty of other ideological and positional U turns can be cited.
Tories had been the most successful party in Western Europe for much of the 20th Century, partly because of the way it changed tack.
Alistair - the betfair price is determined by the collective views of the punters who bet on it.
They are obviously not basing their betting solely on the polls. Why is that 'flat out wrong'? Especially when the polling companies themselves are so nervous about their results.
Obviously betting will be influenced by the polls but it is not clear why the polls today - which average out to a similar result to those earlier in the week - would dramatically move the market.
JosiasJessop, actually it irritates me when you talk about genius Indian engineers. Who do you have in mind? I can't think of a single example of successful offshoring of software development, and I know of several horror stories. Your comments are just a different form of Foxinsoxs immigrant doctors are wonderful, better than uk trained, which he expounded on the day the GMC told us that 50% of immigrant doctors would fail uk exams, and that one such doctor had killed 70% of his attempts at angioplasty.
Be fair he has never said that.. just Bull Crap(!)
"...if a company hires a brilliant engineer from (say) India, should (s)he be able to bring in his family of eight with him, even if some of them may become cleaners? Can they come over immediately, or should there be a waiting period? Should they be able to apply for residency after a certain period in the UK?"
The (say) shows it is non-specific and just an example. It's different from me blathering on about brilliant Indian engineers specifically, which he implies, and I have not done.
Or are you saying there are not brilliant / genius Indian engineers?
Besides I'm much more likely to talk about genius Turkish engineers. Because I'm married to one. ;-)
JosiasJessop, not your comment then, sorry, the comment was made here by someone. I am sensitive to the way idle and useless management won't give uk people a chance, block their prospects, destroy their education.
I don't care if No wins 90 to 10 now, the price on Betfair is simply flat out wrong given the polling data we have.
Looking at the Yes/No market on Betfair is like staring in the face of Azatoth the Blind Idiot God - only madness and death can come of it.
I'd price up yes between 2/1 & 5/2 right now.
What is clear is the big money doesn't believe the polls. If that is the case, I suspect there will probably be value in the Yes odds until the first results start coming in on friday morning.
Can't take any more of this. Off to the hills tomorrow as its a good forecast for the North West Highlands. Things always look better from the summit of a Munro or Corbett.
Enjoy yourself. I'm very jealous, being trapped down here in the flatlands.
Gerry McCulloch @gerrymcculloch1 So rumour has it The Scottish Sun will declare for YES on Monday then spend rest of week campaigning for Independence. #Murdoch'srevenge?
Odds on Salmond mentioning English voters living in Scotland perverting the result?
Why on earth should he? Plenty of English in the SNP and Yes campaign more generally.
But English voters in Scotland are still predicted to break more for No than Yes aren't they? - I doubt Salmond would bring that up in the event of a close No win, but I'm sure someone will, even if not officially. Don't people say if Scots abroad could vote they would break more for No as well? (not sure where that comes from) - If so, in a close Yes win, expect further complaints from No about that.
1/2 SunTimes/YouGov poll find s72% think a post-2015 government dependent on Scottish MPs would not be legitimate .
Understandable. It doesn't seem possible the top two would be achievable or fair, but something will have to be done to try and minimise complaints regarding the third one.
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I like Cameron fairly well, and though I wish them well to make politics interesting, I have no intention of voting UKIP (for what it is worth, I've almost always voted LD at various elections, though I wanted a Cameron led LD-Con coalition government in 2010), and I am frankly amazed that you see so the possibility as so unlikely. I think Cameron will resign, but I can envisage him wanting to stay on...but him not being ousted? That seems highly improbable - Cameron has so little control of his own party and activists, legions of whom appear to wish they were UKIP and have forced Cameron to the right or defeated him several times. I'm to believe those people, and others distraught at the loss of the Union, would not force Cameron out?
There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
With genuine respect, all I can say as a Tory member and activist for 40 years (shudders), I think I know my party pretty well and your scenario is fanciful.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
If he was a Duke of the Blood Royal he'd go off and eat a swan or something, and tup a comely wench, following a YES vote, but as the duty-bound honourable type he will do his duty. He will resign. Imagine what his wife's family (genuinely posh) will think of him.
You're projecting too many of your own insecurities on to him.
JosiasJessop, actually it irritates me when you talk about genius Indian engineers. Who do you have in mind? I can't think of a single example of successful offshoring of software development, and I know of several horror stories. Your comments are just a different form of Foxinsoxs immigrant doctors are wonderful, better than uk trained, which he expounded on the day the GMC told us that 50% of immigrant doctors would fail uk exams, and that one such doctor had killed 70% of his attempts at angioplasty.
Be fair he has never said that.. just Bull Crap(!)
"...if a company hires a brilliant engineer from (say) India, should (s)he be able to bring in his family of eight with him, even if some of them may become cleaners? Can they come over immediately, or should there be a waiting period? Should they be able to apply for residency after a certain period in the UK?"
The (say) shows it is non-specific and just an example. It's different from me blathering on about brilliant Indian engineers specifically, which he implies, and I have not done.
Or are you saying there are not brilliant / genius Indian engineers?
Besides I'm much more likely to talk about genius Turkish engineers. Because I'm married to one. ;-)
Hmm you did kind of say what he implied, or at least close enough not to accuse him of inventing it!
But anyway, no bother to me at all, and to try and prevent a tedious nitpicking argument on a Saturday night I'll say I agreed with what you said about small c conservatism earlier
A Conservatives/UKIP coalition would probably lose the GE.
Both the Conservatives and UKIP would lose voters. The question is whether the voters they lose would be offset by the voters happy with the merge. It's far from a certainty, especially when it may force many current UKIP voters back to Labour.
It may be a wet dream for the hard right, but that does not mean it's saleable to the electorate.
Your yawnsome 'hard right' dig aside, I actually agree. There can and should be no formal alliance -it will damage UKIP as a growing force to be absorbed back into The Conservative Party. The cat is out of the bag, and it isn't going back in. It suits conservatism extremely well to have two opposing parties, who can appeal to different audiences.
What phrase would you use aside from 'hard right'? The 'right' is too large to be applicable (it includes too large a range of opinion), and I did not want to use 'far right' because of the obvious connotations.
conservatives.
Are you talking about conservative in the small 'c' sense (especially social)? If so, I think you are wrong. I'd like to think of myself as conservative in the fact that I like change to be gradual; large, sudden changes tend to just f things up.
Hence the move to gay marriage suited me fine: firstly civil partnerships; then when the world did not end, a move towards more equality. It's the same with women clergy and bishops.
Conservatism (small c) does not mean no change. As society changes, so does conservatism.
Your overall point is debatable, but gay marriage is a good case study. I am broadly in favour myself, but I don't think the change to marriage from civil partnerships has been at all organic, and I don't know how you could portray it as such. A few years ago, Hillary Clinton's position was that civil partnerships were fine but that it should not be called marriage. That was a moderately 'liberal' position. Then suddenly, with no prominent grassroots campaign preceding it, gay marriage moved to the top of the agenda of every western country. How is it accurate to describe someone who is uncomfortable with what they see as the reclassification of marriage as 'hard' 'far', or frankly any other kind of 'right' wing? The answer is, it's not. It's a term of abuse to throw at those who object to top down social engineering. What these people are, if they can be categorised, is conservative.
Alistair - the betfair price is determined by the collective views of the punters who bet on it.
They are obviously not basing their betting solely on the polls. Why is that 'flat out wrong'? Especially when the polling companies themselves are so nervous about their results.
Obviously betting will be influenced by the polls but it is not clear why the polls today - which average out to a similar result to those earlier in the week - would dramatically move the market.
Yeah, but 3 days ago you could get just above 2/1 on Yes with Betfair, now it's not far off 4/1.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
Every White British person alive is descended from William the Bastard. Cameron is upper middle class, not upper class.
Tory MPs say allies of Osborne have revealed that he is looking at plans to stop Scottish MPs voting on finance bills. That could prevent a future Labour government with a slender majority from passing its budget measures.
One MP said: “It would be bye-bye [Ed] Balls’s first budget. George can see the advantages of trying to f*** the Labour party.”
A Labour MP told Conservatives last week that the shadow chancellor “is crapping himself” at the prospect of such a move.
That would be a seriously silly move, if true. The Budget will be just about the only thing that Scottish MPs *should* be able to vote on if DevoMax goes through. Stopping them voting on any competency devolved to Holyrood on the other hand ...
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
With genuine respect, all I can say as a Tory member and activist for 40 years (shudders), I think I know my party pretty well and your scenario is fanciful.
I'll concede you know your party better than I do, but in that case they have done a bloody awful job of presenting themselves in any way shape or form to be the way you report them to be, far beyond what media manipulations could have managed.
However my main point was to disabuse your understandably (given their standard anti-Cameronism) flippant dismissal of those calling for Cameron to step down as being from the massed legions of pbkippers alone. They no doubt will be joyful at the chance to get rid of Cameron, but you are the one being fanciful if you think only they and the usual malcontents think Cameron would or should step down in that situation, even if your assessment of what will happen will be correct.
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Sean I've messaged you via vanilla,
Thanks for settling the bet so promptly, I'll email you my bank details.
Does this make me the first PB-er to actually make money on the indyref?
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
If he was a Duke of the Blood Royal he'd go off and eat a swan or something, and tup a comely wench, following a YES vote, but as the duty-bound honourable type he will do his duty. He will resign. Imagine what his wife's family (genuinely posh) will think of him.
You're projecting too many of your own insecurities on to him.
Chill.
Actually quite a lot of people would think highly of him for not doing a Rajoy, and actually allowing a democratic vote (albeit belatedly and with his arm twisted by the 2011 election result).
One interesting aspect of this is the Tories implacable opposition to a yes vote despite the electoral advantage it would bring them. If the situation was reversed does anyone seriously think the labour party would not support yes purely for their own advantage?
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
Every White British person alive is descended from William the Bastard. Cameron is upper middle class, not upper class.
Does it, in 2014, matter very much? Do you, or does anyone, believe Seant's preposterous suggestion that the nobility are more prone to suicide on point of principle than any other class? (He doesn't, for starters.)
One interesting aspect of this is the Tories implacable opposition to a yes vote despite the electoral advantage it would bring them. If the situation was reversed does anyone seriously think the labour party would not support yes purely for their own advantage?
perhaps it would make no difference as the tories are hated in Scotland.
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Sean I've messaged you via vanilla,
Thanks for settling the bet so promptly, I'll email you my bank details.
Does this make me the first PB-er to actually make money on the indyref?
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
If he was a Duke of the Blood Royal he'd go off and eat a swan or something, and tup a comely wench, following a YES vote, but as the duty-bound honourable type he will do his duty. He will resign. Imagine what his wife's family (genuinely posh) will think of him.
You're projecting too many of your own insecurities on to him.
Chill.
Actually quite a lot of people would think highly of him for not doing a Rajoy, and actually allowing a democratic vote (albeit belatedly and with his arm twisted by the 2011 election result).
Apparently some Catalans lofted posters of him during their rallies, which must have been novel for him.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
I am sure that you are right with your pedigree. But it matters not a jot. True nobility is not inherited, any more than surgical skill is inherited.
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
Perhaps when the referendum is all cut and dried and Cameron has resigned or not as the case may be, we should have a thread or more likely a series of threads on what went went wrong for for him, starting iirc around a year before the 2010 GE. Initially, with his unscripted speeches, etc, he seemed to have it all but in all truth he's been a considerable disappointment. Yes, he's made mistakes, which Prime Minister hasn't, but somehow he's never quite cut it and I'm not entirely sure why that should be. Then again I'm not sure how Brown ever got the gig, nor how he managed to keep it for so long.
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
This is staring straight into the Pits of Hell.
If he loses the vote - now clearly very possible - this won't just be his epitaph, The Man Who Lost the Union, it will all he'll be known for. By everyone. By history. Just that. What price The Big Society or Bringing Down the Deficit A Bit, compared to presiding over the break-up of your country (and being partly responsible for it).
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Sean I've messaged you via vanilla,
Thanks for settling the bet so promptly, I'll email you my bank details.
Does this make me the first PB-er to actually make money on the indyref?
What exactly was the bet on?
Which poster could try to impress by namedropping the least famous tweeter?
One interesting aspect of this is the Tories implacable opposition to a yes vote despite the electoral advantage it would bring them. If the situation was reversed does anyone seriously think the labour party would not support yes purely for their own advantage?
perhaps it would make no difference as the tories are hated in Scotland.
I've always thought Cameron would/will resign after a YES, but I don't particularly think he should.
If Scotland decides they no longer want to be part of the Union with the United Kingdom then that is a matter for them. You can't force people who don't want to be part of this country to stay in it. If the "will" isn't there, it isn't there.
Really, Cameron is a marginal figure in this, as is Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, etc...
That said I suspect he'll do his duty and resign, but as far as spending his life a broken wreck of man with suicidal thoughts, no. He'll survive and move on to the next stage of his life with his lovely wife and children.
JosiasJessop, not your comment then, sorry, the comment was made here by someone. I am sensitive to the way idle and useless management won't give uk people a chance, block their prospects, destroy their education.
I agree to a certain extent, and we have touched upon this before on here.
However there is a large skills shortage in my wife's highly-technical engineering speciality. I won't mention it again as it's so specialist that it may be fairly easy to work out who she is, or at least who she works for. (*)
This is not a problem caused by the industry, but one of the education system and society. She was raised mainly in Turkey, where engineering (especially amongst girls) is more highly prized (**). We need to make it a more high-profile and desirable job here in the UK. We need more people with good engineering degrees and less media studies graduates. Quite how we get to a wonderful world where demand meets supply in each discipline is another matter.
In the case of her/our industry, we'll take anyone because there are just not enough trained UK-born staff. We can argue about how we got here, but it's the way it is. And you cannot blame a startup that has been around for less than five years for the education system';s failings.
My speciality is/was software. It's a different matter here, although education is still a problem: too may people confuse IT and software development.
(*) I have just entered her job title on an international industry-specific jobs site. The first hits are, in order, Ireland, France, Ireland, UK, Spain, Austria, UK, South Africa, USA, Spain and Switzerland.
(**) The reasons that engineering is more popular for girls in Turkey than it is in the UK or even the USA are complex and partially sexist. Women doing engineering degrees are seen as more marriageable, although that depends on whether the engineer discipline is perceived as 'masculine' or 'feminine'.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
I am sure that you are right with your pedigree. But it matters not a jot. True nobility is not inherited, any more than surgical skill is inherited.
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
I won't blame him for the result, for the attractiveness of the union being allowed to lapse for so long and for so far, there are others who have had a great role in that than him. I just feel his position would be made untenable by such a result, at the very least among the Tory party. There is no way he could present himself as a strong leader for 2015, on top of all the difficulties he was already facing with that.
Been canvassing in the Borders for Better Together all day. Plenty of no voters, including those reluctant to go public because they've heard people with no posters have had bricks through their windows. At point, a farmer came in asking for a new field poster as his existing one had been stolen; he said he'd be going to the Yes campaign office to give them a piece of his mind.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
Every White British person alive is descended from William the Bastard. Cameron is upper middle class, not upper class.
Does it, in 2014, matter very much? Do you, or does anyone, believe Seant's preposterous suggestion that the nobility are more prone to suicide on point of principle than any other class? (He doesn't, for starters.)
Can't take any more of this. Off to the hills tomorrow as its a good forecast for the North West Highlands. Things always look better from the summit of a Munro or Corbett.
Enjoy yourself. I'm very jealous, being trapped down here in the flatlands.
Nothing quite like sitting on top of the mountain, looking at four or five other ranges on all points of the compass.
Rumour is this week's Sunil on Sunday will officially back Scots Independence.
Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant, has allegedly laughed off claims that his reason for doing so is to maximise the chances of the Tories getting a majority in rUK.
Perhaps when the referendum is all cut and dried and Cameron has resigned or not as the case may be, we should have a thread or more likely a series of threads on what went went wrong for for him, starting iirc around a year before the 2010 GE. Initially, with his unscripted speeches, etc, he seemed to have it all but in all truth he's been a considerable disappointment. Yes, he's made mistakes, which Prime Minister hasn't, but somehow he's never quite cut it and I'm not entirely sure why that should be. Then again I'm not sure how Brown ever got the gig, nor how he managed to keep it for so long.
Not really Dave's fault - the financial crash and the age of austerity were a huge hindrance. As we saw during the Blair years, it's easy to bestride the political landscape when you're splashing billions of borrowed pounds about. It all goes a lot more chilly for a politician when there's no money under the mattress for endless goodies - a fact Mr Salmond may discover in due course.
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
With genuine respect, all I can say as a Tory member and activist for 40 years (shudders), I think I know my party pretty well and your scenario is fanciful.
I'll concede you know your party better than I do, but in that case they have done a bloody awful job of presenting themselves in any way shape or form to be the way you report them to be, far beyond what media manipulations could have managed.
However my main point was to disabuse your understandably (given their standard anti-Cameronism) flippant dismissal of those calling for Cameron to step down as being from the massed legions of pbkippers alone. They no doubt will be joyful at the chance to get rid of Cameron, but you are the one being fanciful if you think only they and the usual malcontents think Cameron would or should step down in that situation, even if your assessment of what will happen will be correct.
How many pb Tories - I concede we're now a decided minority on this forum - agree with you and Sean Thomas. I haven't counted any....and I believe this is reflected in the party as a whole. We shall see (though I think this will be academic).
Joanne Bonnar @STVJoanne Rupert Murdoch tells @STVNews that the Sun newspaper is considering backing a Yes vote. #indyref #ScotDecides
Idea: How many debts does NewsCorp have and to whom? I'm sure the banks would not be happy is he supports something as disruptive as scotish independence, maybe a phone call from his banker might change his mind.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
I am sure that you are right with your pedigree. But it matters not a jot. True nobility is not inherited, any more than surgical skill is inherited.
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
Been canvassing in the Borders for Better Together all day. Plenty of no voters, including those reluctant to go public because they've heard people with no posters have had bricks through their windows. At point, a farmer came in asking for a new field poster as his existing one had been stolen; he said he'd be going to the Yes campaign office to give them a piece of his mind.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
I am sure that you are right with your pedigree. But it matters not a jot. True nobility is not inherited, any more than surgical skill is inherited.
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
I think you're totally wrong, and he will resign on principle (after a few weeks) or be forced out PDQ by very very angry Tory MPs.
But even if he clings on, can you honestly imagine this crippled, sad, laughable figure (as he will be, having lost the Union) leading the Tory party INTO the next election?
Vote for The Guy Who Broke the Nation
Vote for The Big Society - Cause Under Me Its Getting Geographically Smaller by 30% Every Five Years!
Vote for David "I think I'd be quite good at destroying Great Britain" Cameron
This is off the top of my head and after just two glasses of wine. Satirists, enemies, opponents, the Queen, and Boris Johnson will have a year to think up far more cutting lines, making Cameron's life a total, wretched and public misery.
He will go.
Are you equally willing to crown him as a political titan whose mastery of politics killed Scottish Nationalism for a generation, if No wins?
You are merely using any stick to beat a man who you already chose to dislike.
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
With genuine respect, all I can say as a Tory member and activist for 40 years (shudders), I think I know my party pretty well and your scenario is fanciful.
.
How many pb Tories - I concede we're now a decided minority on this forum - agree with you and Sean Thomas. I haven't counted any....and I believe this is reflected in the party as a whole. We shall see (though I think this will be academic).
I hope you're right on the latter, and rather amazingly (from my perspective) there has been at least some polling saying people want him to stay on in the event of a Yes I believe, although surely the key need not be among the party as a whole, but the parliamentary party (assuming he feels no no obligation to step down)? As a party member, are you as confident in them not to react like headless chickens? That is how they come across, but then I've never met any of them (scratch that, I have met one of them, but did not get to converse with them).
I've always thought Cameron would/will resign after a YES, but I don't particularly think he should.
If Scotland decides they no longer want to be part of the Union with the United Kingdom then that is a matter for them. You can't force people who don't want to be part of this country to stay in it. If the "will" isn't there, it isn't there.
Really, Cameron is a marginal figure in this, as is Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, etc...
That said I suspect he'll do his duty and resign, but as far as spending his life a broken wreck of man with suicidal thoughts, no. He'll survive and move on to the next stage of his life with his lovely wife and children.
To match JohnO, despite 40 years of Labour activism, I see no reason why Cameron (or Miliband, or anyone else) should resign in such a case. But if he did, I think you're quite right about what would happen next. Cameron is not like SeanT, passionately engaged in everything except when he's passionately engaged in the opposite. He is keen on politics and would like to do well, but he really isn't obsessed by it. He'll wander off and do something else.
An interesting question is whether a good PM *should* be passionately obsessed (examples: Gordon Brown, maybe Ted Heath) or a bit detached (examples: John Major, maybe Clem Attlee).
JosiasJessop, actually it irritates me when you talk about genius Indian engineers. Who do you have in mind? I can't think of a single example of successful offshoring of software development, and I know of several horror stories. Your comments are just a different form of Foxinsoxs immigrant doctors are wonderful, better than uk trained, which he expounded on the day the GMC told us that 50% of immigrant doctors would fail uk exams, and that one such doctor had killed 70% of his attempts at angioplasty.
Be fair he has never said that.. just Bull Crap(!)
"...if a company hires a brilliant engineer from (say) India, should (s)he be able to bring in his family of eight with him, even if some of them may become cleaners? Can they come over immediately, or should there be a waiting period? Should they be able to apply for residency after a certain period in the UK?"
The (say) shows it is non-specific and just an example. It's different from me blathering on about brilliant Indian engineers specifically, which he implies, and I have not done.
Or are you saying there are not brilliant / genius Indian engineers?
Besides I'm much more likely to talk about genius Turkish engineers. Because I'm married to one. ;-)
Hmm you did kind of say what he implied, or at least close enough not to accuse him of inventing it!
But anyway, no bother to me at all, and to try and prevent a tedious nitpicking argument on a Saturday night I'll say I agreed with what you said about small c conservatism earlier
He'd have to be trigger-happy emotionally to get irritated about something I've mentioned in passing as an example once, whilst illustrating a different point!
Anyway, to quote SeanT, pax. Have a nice evening / weekend everyone, and don't get too over-excited by the vagaries of polling!
In the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner predicts a no victory
Why do I predict a no? It’s the economy, stupid
And yet it is so close - either the economic arguments have failed to resonate, or they are not proving as important as people think it should regardless. One hopes it is enough to give No the edge, but if it was an 'obviously will win the day for No' sort of factor, it would have already killed things off, surely?
Imagine that you are David Cameron right now. This is beyond Staring into the Abyss.
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
No potty-mouth as it's the weekend but you are wrong. Cameron will not resign or be forced to resign if yes prevails, however you and the massed legions of pbkippers might wish it so. But no is going to win.
I There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
With genuine respect, all I can say as a Tory member and activist for 40 years (shudders), I think I know my party pretty well and your scenario is fanciful.
I'll concede you know your party better than I do, but in that case they have done a bloody awful job of presenting themselves in any way shape or form to be the way you report them to be, far beyond what media manipulations could have managed.
However my main point was to disabuse your understandably (given their standard anti-Cameronism) flippant dismissal of those calling for Cameron to step down as being from the massed legions of pbkippers alone. They no doubt will be joyful at the chance to get rid of Cameron, but you are the one being fanciful if you think only they and the usual malcontents think Cameron would or should step down in that situation, even if your assessment of what will happen will be correct.
How many pb Tories - I concede we're now a decided minority on this forum - agree with you and Sean Thomas. I haven't counted any....and I believe this is reflected in the party as a whole. We shall see (though I think this will be academic).
Can't take any more of this. Off to the hills tomorrow as its a good forecast for the North West Highlands. Things always look better from the summit of a Munro or Corbett.
Enjoy yourself. I'm very jealous, being trapped down here in the flatlands.
Nothing quite like sitting on top of the mountain, looking at four or five other ranges on all points of the compass.
Or as we call them here in Cambridgeshire, molehills. ;-)
For a man of his background, I'd be surprised if he hasn't had suicidal thoughts.
Calm down dear - He's the son of a stock broker and went to Eton, not the scion of some ancient nobles oblige family who arrived from Normandy in 1066.
Absolute nonsense. David Cameron is descended from just about every Scottish family which held a Earldom or above in 1707. He is a 5x great grandson of William IV He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
I am sure that you are right with your pedigree. But it matters not a jot. True nobility is not inherited, any more than surgical skill is inherited.
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
I think you're totally wrong, and he will resign on principle (after a few weeks) or be forced out PDQ He will go.
Are you equally willing to crown him as a political titan whose mastery of politics killed Scottish Nationalism for a generation, if No wins?
You are merely using any stick to beat a man who you already chose to dislike.
Well at least one other person agrees, and yet I like Cameron, even though I have found him disappointing in many areas. I prefer his version of the Tories than that of many of those within his own party who oppose him as well.
But I've laboured on the point enough for one evening, so I shall try to drop it from now on, not least because I hope the question will not arise.
Odds on Salmond mentioning English voters living in Scotland perverting the result?
Why on earth should he? Plenty of English in the SNP and Yes campaign more generally.
But English voters in Scotland are still predicted to break more for No than Yes aren't they? - I doubt Salmond would bring that up in the event of a close No win, but I'm sure someone will, even if not officially. Don't people say if Scots abroad could vote they would break more for No as well? (not sure where that comes from) - If so, in a close Yes win, expect further complaints from No about that.
Just to deal with English in Scotland - yes, what you say re voting does seem to be the case but much of it is I am sure due to demographics: retirees to country or nice town = older, house owners, better off = conservative = No, relatively speaking. In reality it seems that the English born are quite a mix voting wise. (Sudden thought: do pollsters ask re birthplace or personal perceived identity?)
But it is unfair to pick them out in the event of a close vote - one could just as well or as futilely blame the members of bowling clubs (similar demographic, if my local one is any guide). Most of the angst about this seems to me to be made up by Unionist newspapers and other folk making mischief and it's not nice of them.
On Scots resident furth of Scotland voting* - it was never a starter, partly because of international practice on indyrefs, and UK practice on referendum franchise. But also the common sense point that there is no cast iron definition of Scottish other than birth or residence, and if they are not resident then there is no easy and secure way of proving entitlement in the absence of, say, a Scottish passport (!).
I forget the technical details, but it was well aired at the time of the Edinburgh Agreement, which settled that, and it has stood up to legal challenge.
In any case, however, it seems an open question whether expats would have been more for Yes or No if only because I can't remember any serious independent (no pun intended) [edit:] survey. I know there has been a string of stories about expat Scots from Corby to California supporting a No but I rather suspect they were organised by Better Together and its sympathisers.
*Important exception: services personnel, who should have got their postal vote for their home base, etc.
Rumour is this week's Sunil on Sunday will officially back Scots Independence.
Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant, has allegedly laughed off claims that his reason for doing so is to maximise the chances of the Tories getting a majority in rUK.
Every train coming from Haymarket should be stopped at Berwick to check for contraband goods and to check passports.
Visas can be given on the spot. Only £10 for a single visa.
Cannot possibly have Scottish MPs voting corporation tax increases in the UK, and corresponding increase in the Barnet allowance, and then voting to decrease corporation tax in Scotland.
I don't think Cameron will go, although it may be a close run thing. I don't really think he should go either.
However there is a great deal of blame that he needs to shoulder. The paramount mistake was to allow a rather weak coalition lead by Darling to make the no case. Even though it was an extremely difficult thing to tackle I think Cameron should have faced the task himself.
Scottish voters have essentially had a pretty weak debate - between Salmond and a fairly apologist set of people in a rather shambolic group. A little more clarity, even if delivered by a Tory PM, would I feel have been much more likely to win the day.
I share the surprise that the betfair market hasn't reacted somewhat more - I think that a fair amount of resting orders are there from people who aren't watching the polls as eagerly as the PB crowd. I suspect it will be a couple of ticks towards yes by tomorrow.
Comments
SInce the 2nd debate we've had 12 polls.
Yes have had a lead in only 2 of those polls.
And on average No has had a lead of 3 points.
That is a narrow lead, one which might be overturned or just proven to be wrong because the pollsters are making systematic errors, but it does show a lead for no. It's not neck and neck.
The acronym GOTV may well be engraved on the Yoonyun's tombstone.
I advised Dame Angela to quit the Cons and join UKIP in the "comments" section, although I think she might be a bit too right wing reading her wiki
Hence the move to gay marriage suited me fine: firstly civil partnerships; then when the world did not end, a move towards more equality. It's the same with women clergy and bishops.
Conservatism (small c) does not mean no change. As society changes, so does conservatism.
If it is a 'Yes', and it proves to be a disaster for Scotland, voters rich or poor can never say that they weren't warned of what might happen.
They were. Very clearly.
Looking at the Yes/No market on Betfair is like staring in the face of Azatoth the Blind Idiot God - only madness and death can come of it.
1/2 Sun Times/YouGov poll finds
65% of voters in England & Wales want Scottish MPs gone from Westminster immediately if there is a yes vote
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB · 1m
2/2 Sun Times/YouGov poll finds 7 out of 10 by next year’s election at the latest;
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB · 32s
1/2 SunTimes/YouGov poll find s72% think a post-2015 government dependent on Scottish MPs would not be legitimate
The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB · 5s
2/2 SunTimes/YouGov poll By 65% to 20%, English and Welsh voters say Scotland should not be allowed to keep the pound.
Opinium - No +6
Panelbase - No +1.2
ICM - Yes +8 - WEIGHT TO 70% per Curtice
Weighted average = No +2.6
NB. (8 + 6 + 1.2 - 5.6)/3.7 = +2.6
There might well be sensible arguments not to change PM right now in the event of Yes (though I am unconvinced by these, given it is not as though much important business will take place prior to 2015, and a stop gap PM could work just fine), but the parliamentary party has proven themselves time and again a fractious and emotional lot, and in the hear of the moment, even more than the usual crowd will sign even if Cameron tries to stay on.
He's toast. Either No wins and he loses in 2015 anyway, or Yes wins and he's gone in before the new Year.
He is a 5x great grandson of William IV
He is a 3x great grandson of James 5th Earl of Fife
He is a 4 x great grandson of William 18th Earl of Errol
He is a 12 x great grandson of James VI and I
He is a 26 x great grandson (as am I) of Freskyn of Moravia whose father accompanied his cousins Eustace, Count of Boulogne and William Duke of Normandy in 1066.
If that is not a scion of ancient nobles oblige I have no idea what is!!!
Pro Empire then ready to dissolve it.
Anti EU, then Pro then Anti.
Plenty of other ideological and positional U turns can be cited.
Tories had been the most successful party in Western Europe for much of the 20th Century, partly because of the way it changed tack.
Another big reputation firmly on the line.
They are obviously not basing their betting solely on the polls. Why is that 'flat out wrong'? Especially when the polling companies themselves are so nervous about their results.
Obviously betting will be influenced by the polls but it is not clear why the polls today - which average out to a similar result to those earlier in the week - would dramatically move the market.
Nite all, and thanks for your company.
Or are you saying there are not brilliant / genius Indian engineers?
Besides I'm much more likely to talk about genius Turkish engineers. Because I'm married to one. ;-)
What is clear is the big money doesn't believe the polls. If that is the case, I suspect there will probably be value in the Yes odds until the first results start coming in on friday morning.
Cf; Romney/Intrade
So rumour has it The Scottish Sun will declare for YES on Monday then spend rest of week campaigning for Independence. #Murdoch'srevenge?
This referendum, & politics in general is peanuts
Chill.
But anyway, no bother to me at all, and to try and prevent a tedious nitpicking argument on a Saturday night I'll say I agreed with what you said about small c conservatism earlier
Rupert Murdoch tells @STVNews that the Sun newspaper is considering backing a Yes vote. #indyref #ScotDecides
No 1.25
Madness. Utter madness.
However my main point was to disabuse your understandably (given their standard anti-Cameronism) flippant dismissal of those calling for Cameron to step down as being from the massed legions of pbkippers alone. They no doubt will be joyful at the chance to get rid of Cameron, but you are the one being fanciful if you think only they and the usual malcontents think Cameron would or should step down in that situation, even if your assessment of what will happen will be correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/11089867/Catalans-call-for-yes-vote-in-Scotland-as-they-march-for-independence-from-Spain.html
To make him the scapegoat is ridiculous though, any more than hailing him as the saviour of the union is if the vote goes the other way. There was a clear mandate for an indy ref after the 2011 Holyrood vote that would have been undemocratic to ignore. There was no mandate for devomax to be on the ballot paper (and Gordon et al should note there still is no mandate for this until the scope of devomax is passed by Westminster). I am no fan of Cameron, but he has behaved with dignity and honour over the whole issue. There is no need for any resignation, not least because any other leader of the party would have done the same.
Initially, with his unscripted speeches, etc, he seemed to have it all but in all truth he's been a considerable disappointment. Yes, he's made mistakes, which Prime Minister hasn't, but somehow he's never quite cut it and I'm not entirely sure why that should be. Then again I'm not sure how Brown ever got the gig, nor how he managed to keep it for so long.
If Scotland decides they no longer want to be part of the Union with the United Kingdom then that is a matter for them. You can't force people who don't want to be part of this country to stay in it. If the "will" isn't there, it isn't there.
Really, Cameron is a marginal figure in this, as is Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, etc...
That said I suspect he'll do his duty and resign, but as far as spending his life a broken wreck of man with suicidal thoughts, no. He'll survive and move on to the next stage of his life with his lovely wife and children.
However there is a large skills shortage in my wife's highly-technical engineering speciality. I won't mention it again as it's so specialist that it may be fairly easy to work out who she is, or at least who she works for. (*)
This is not a problem caused by the industry, but one of the education system and society. She was raised mainly in Turkey, where engineering (especially amongst girls) is more highly prized (**). We need to make it a more high-profile and desirable job here in the UK. We need more people with good engineering degrees and less media studies graduates. Quite how we get to a wonderful world where demand meets supply in each discipline is another matter.
In the case of her/our industry, we'll take anyone because there are just not enough trained UK-born staff. We can argue about how we got here, but it's the way it is. And you cannot blame a startup that has been around for less than five years for the education system';s failings.
My speciality is/was software. It's a different matter here, although education is still a problem: too may people confuse IT and software development.
(*) I have just entered her job title on an international industry-specific jobs site. The first hits are, in order, Ireland, France, Ireland, UK, Spain, Austria, UK, South Africa, USA, Spain and Switzerland.
(**) The reasons that engineering is more popular for girls in Turkey than it is in the UK or even the USA are complex and partially sexist. Women doing engineering degrees are seen as more marriageable, although that depends on whether the engineer discipline is perceived as 'masculine' or 'feminine'.
Too much PR in him. He can at times, sound like a car salesman.
Did anyone else go canvassing today? How was it?
Lord Sunil, proprietor and headline-finder pursuivant, has allegedly laughed off claims that his reason for doing so is to maximise the chances of the Tories getting a majority in rUK.
How many debts does NewsCorp have and to whom?
I'm sure the banks would not be happy is he supports something as disruptive as scotish independence, maybe a phone call from his banker might change his mind.
You are merely using any stick to beat a man who you already chose to dislike.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Riot_Club
An interesting question is whether a good PM *should* be passionately obsessed (examples: Gordon Brown, maybe Ted Heath) or a bit detached (examples: John Major, maybe Clem Attlee).
I have been saying that on here for the last few days only to be called mad or a turnip. It is nice to have so much company
Anyway, to quote SeanT, pax. Have a nice evening / weekend everyone, and don't get too over-excited by the vagaries of polling!
A Scottish one too.
But I've laboured on the point enough for one evening, so I shall try to drop it from now on, not least because I hope the question will not arise.
He'll declare his decision next.. Friday.
Visas can be given on the spot. Only £10 for a single visa.
However there is a great deal of blame that he needs to shoulder. The paramount mistake was to allow a rather weak coalition lead by Darling to make the no case. Even though it was an extremely difficult thing to tackle I think Cameron should have faced the task himself.
Scottish voters have essentially had a pretty weak debate - between Salmond and a fairly apologist set of people in a rather shambolic group. A little more clarity, even if delivered by a Tory PM, would I feel have been much more likely to win the day.
I share the surprise that the betfair market hasn't reacted somewhat more - I think that a fair amount of resting orders are there from people who aren't watching the polls as eagerly as the PB crowd. I suspect it will be a couple of ticks towards yes by tomorrow.