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LD making gains in Blue wall – LAB not making progress in Red wall – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,803

    Bloodbath continues in West Oxfordshire. Two Conservative cabinet members down and a further seat goes LibDem. Could be more to come.

    Greens doing well in Oxford, picking up two seats that would otherwise be Labour.

    Greens have had a very good night, proportionally.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    The tories have held Westminster for 58 years, ever since it was created in 1964.

    They just lost it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    Looks to me like Starmer has brilliantly de-toxified the Corbyn anti-Semitism. A lot of Jewish voters are returning to Labour.

    Fantastic. Well done Sir Keir.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    The tories have lost Westminster

    Hold your excited horses chomping at their bit!

    Shall we ask HY what on earth is going on in Hillingdon?

    HY, what on earth is going on in Hillingdon, can you lose it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,894
    Labour wins all 3 seats in Westminster / West End:

    FISHER Paul Edward Lab 1158
    LILLEY Patrick Eamon Joseph Lab 1111
    TOALE Jessica Jade Lab 1111
    BARNES Tim Con 961
    REDMOND Julie Ann Con 923
    MURPHY Eoghain Leo Con 913
    TAYLOR Sophie Amanda LD 264
    COELHO George LD 207
    WEISZ Jonah Louis LD 158
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,803

    Bloodbath continues in West Oxfordshire. Two Conservative cabinet members down and a further seat goes LibDem. Could be more to come.

    Greens doing well in Oxford, picking up two seats that would otherwise be Labour. EDIT: make that three!

    Now NOC - https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2022/england/councils/E07000181
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,803

    Heathener said:

    The tories have lost Westminster

    Hold your excited horses chomping at their bit!

    Shall we ask HY what on earth is going on in Hillingdon?

    HY, what on earth is going on in Hillingdon, can you lose it?
    Tory hold.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,706
    FPT
    El_Sid said:

    El_Sid said:

    El_Sid said:

    Another factor is seats like Pitsea NW (Basildon) which in 2014 saw UKIP winning with 45.1% of the vote and Tories third with 16.7%, and then Labour come through the middle with 47.2% in 2018 with the Tories in second with 32.3% and UKIP third with 16.9%, has tonight seen the Tories beat Labour 47.1% to 46.1%.

    Labour vote has held up pretty well (previously they had mostly been in the 30-35% range), all that's happened is that there's no UKIP and almost all their vote has gone to the Tories.

    https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/3732/
    https://www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=282&RPID=17293364

    Is it too glib to conclude, not a single leave voter trusts Starmer, Lamy and the Labour front bench, they are sticking with Boris?
    Yes.

    Basildon voted 69:31 to Leave, so assuming no differential turnout effects then Labour must be getting some Leavers to get to 46.1% today.

    But it's rather more complex than that, although Leave/Remain are convenient labels it's more about the factors that led people to vote Leave/Remain, for instance the Rwanda stuff will have gone down very well with some audiences and Labour haven't really offered those audiences anything equally eye-catching (not that "eye-catching" and "effective" are often bedfellows).
    Yes I can go along with that. If you could meet me part then way and concede yes some leavers switching to Labour, but the interest is more the amount that’s not not amount that are?
    I think both parties are stuck with the legacy of their party leaders in dealing with the parties that were outflanking them circa 2015. Johnson is enabled by Cameron's decisions which (regardless of the effect on the country) eliminated the Tories' competition to their right by out-UKIPing UKIP and now gives them the freedom to become a tax & spend party without worrying too much about losing those who care about fiscal discipline, whereas Labour are stuck with the legacy of Corbyn, who had the opportunity to wipe out their competition but didn't, and so Starmer is now constrained by the fact that if he goes too "Leavey", his gains will be outweighed by his losses to the LDs and Greens.

    So he's constrained by that space, all he can really hope to do is just push the case for "change" by looking like a plausible PM and trying to move the conversation away from that kind of Leave vs Remain dichotomy which will always favour the one party on one side rather than the three parties on the other side. But moving the conversation is hard to do as an Opposition leader - although it's striking looking at some of the recent coverage of 25 years since 1997, just how much Blair wanted to do compared to the listlessness of the incumbents.
    Corbyn was an obvious Leaver who had to retain remain votes whilst Starmer is a transparent remainer who must win millions of Leave votes.

    While pillorying Johnson as opportunistic and dishonest, of course.

    A political genius like Blair with a fawning press and a hated government could probably pull this off.

    A man with no charisma, political judgement and a Corbynite record, probably not.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
    Against the trend, solid remain council solid leave voting public? The trend tonight is Brexit still alive and well in elections isn’t it?
    Is it? Brexit has happened. Suppose instead it is levelling up that is still in play in the Red Wall — the results would look much the same.
    What about, had the revolution, but back to the barricades to defend the revolution?

    If Labour came to power, Lamy is foreign Secretary? Maybe remainers need the eyes of a leaver to see what they see?

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
    Against the trend, solid remain council solid leave voting public? The trend tonight is Brexit still alive and well in elections isn’t it?
    Is it? Brexit has happened. Suppose instead it is levelling up that is still in play in the Red Wall — the results would look much the same.
    What about, had the revolution, but back to the barricades to defend the revolution?

    If Labour came to power, Lamy is foreign Secretary? Maybe remainers need the eyes of a leaver to see what they see?

    Labour just lost a councillor in Dudley (West Midlands).

    If this is indeed a pattern i.e. under-performing in the red wall relative to the rest of the country then it presents a huge dilemma for them: how to hold the centre ground whilst appealing to the ex Brexit voters.

    But, I repeat, the real killer for the tories in the red wall won't be any politicians. It will be the economy. The cost of living will bite really hard and that will lose Boris the red wall.

    What I desperately hope does NOT happen is that we see a surge in Far Right support. I could see it happening under those circumstances and it could turn very nasty indeed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,317
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    The tories have lost Westminster

    Hold your excited horses chomping at their bit!

    Shall we ask HY what on earth is going on in Hillingdon?

    HY, what on earth is going on in Hillingdon, can you lose it?
    Tory hold.
    Yep they took their 27th seat for a “now back to our constituency and prepare for breakfast” moment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095
    edited May 6
    After two months of nearly flawless handling of intel, suddenly there are people in the Biden administration who can't shut their yaps.

    The New York Times @nytimes · 4h
    Breaking News: The U.S. provided targeting information that helped Ukrainian forces locate and strike the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet last month. https://nyti.ms/3LQklUh

    Hey, Biden administration guys? The Russians wondering what the hell keeps happening to them is more strategically valuable than you blabbing to the New York Times about what keeps happening to them.


    https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1522398091999121409
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,536
    So far Conservatives have lost roughly one in five seats they’ve been defending.

    They’re down by about 5 points in key wards compared to 2018. Down 6 points compared to 2021.

    Labour up by 4 points compared to drubbing of 2021. But down 0.5 compared to 2018.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522425825248923650
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,821
    Tories taking a battering in the south, labour down in the north and midlands

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1522422995691712512?s=21&t=Sa7zpiHuymtQiu9J32hdlA
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,590
    Taz said:

    Tories taking a battering in the south, labour down in the north and midlands

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1522422995691712512?s=21&t=Sa7zpiHuymtQiu9J32hdlA

    That will not steady the nerves of Conservative MPs in the south.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    Folks there's a NEW THREAD.

    Has been for about 15 mins.

    xx
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,106
    Objectionable local Tory here in West Oxfordshire bleating about “the deals that have been done amongst parties in some seats”.

    Newsflash: if you back First Past The Post then these things will happen.
This discussion has been closed.