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LD making gains in Blue wall – LAB not making progress in Red wall – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 8 in General
LD making gains in Blue wall – LAB not making progress in Red wall – politicalbetting.com

The above is the summary from John Curtice of the way things are going so far.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,741
    Results so far Labour -2, Conservatives -34, LDs + 17, Ind + 2, Ref +1, UKIP -2

    So at the moment it is mainly the LDs and Independents taking Conservative seats, not Labour. Labour even seeing losses, though still the Labour heartland of London to come.

    Tory losses not great but not devastating for Boris either so far
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Professor Michael Thrasher on Sky News has also described the results as disappointing for Labour. The party doing well in Wandsworth and Barnet isn't enough.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178
    Starmer is medicore will never be PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    Time for beer and a curry buffet.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Stop the count. :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 6
    Reports that a seat in Angela Rayner's constituency has switched from Lab to Con, [possibly Ashton Hurst].
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    OliverPB said:

    Early days but this looks like a disaster for Labour given the state of the government and the wider political context.

    There’s an obsession with the “leave voter” or Corbyn (stull!) but the real reason seems obvious: Starmer is crap. Really, really crap.

    And it could be argued he’s just the leader and face of a Parliamentary Labour Party that is really really crap. They certainly seem content with his leadership.

    Look forward to how this is spun. A reminder that Labour’s 2018’s results were regarded as disappointing at the time, so it’s not like the comparison is a high watermark either.

    Well actually, Oliver, the electionologists have been saying for weeks and reiterating tonight, 2018 is good high mark for Labour to be compared against.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 6
    Labour getting excited about Wandsworth — but they already hold all 3 parliamentary constituencies there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    edited May 6
    Curtice....

    With well over 150 key wards now declared, the Conservatives are down by 3 percentage points on their performance the last time these areas were contested in 2018, Labour is down 1 point, and the Liberal Democrats are up 4 points.

    If we compare the results with last year, then Labour is up 4 points, the Tories are down 6 points, and the Liberal Democrats are up 3 points.

    So while the Liberal Democrats have so far stolen some of the headlines and Labour's advance has been limited, it's still the case that the Conservatives have lost considerable ground since 12 months ago.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    HYUFD said:

    Results so far Labour -2, Conservatives -34, LDs + 17, Ind + 2, Ref +1, UKIP -2

    So at the moment it is mainly the LDs and Independents taking Conservative seats, not Labour. Labour even seeing losses, though still the Labour heartland of London to come.

    Tory losses not great but not devastating for Boris either so far

    Quite a few council leaders have called on Boris to be sacked already tonight, he doesn’t seem to have much praetorian guard out there does he? What do you make of that, the amount of calls for Boris to go we have already had?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    Curtice....

    With well over 150 key wards now declared, the Conservatives are down by 3 percentage points on their performance the last time these areas were contested in 2018, Labour is down 1 point, and the Liberal Democrats are up 4 points.

    If we compare the results with last year, then Labour is up 4 points, the Tories are down 6 points, and the Liberal Democrats are up 3 points.

    So while the Liberal Democrats have so far stolen some of the headlines and Labour's advance has been limited, it's still the case that the Conservatives have lost considerable ground since 12 months ago.

    The Tories have lost ground since peak Boris at Hartlepool last year? Blow me down with a feather.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 120
    It's starting to look grim for the Tories....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    and now to net zero with their loss of Hull to the LDs.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,617
    Curtice:

    Con doing worse in the South - but neither Lab nor LD are making an advance.

    Independents are doing very well - with 20% in key wards where they are standing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Wandsworth living complete horse battery looking set for hike in council tax 😆
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    and now to net zero with their loss of Hull to the LDs.
    Is it official Hull has fallen?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    edited May 6

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    and now to net zero with their loss of Hull to the LDs.
    Is it official Hull has fallen?
    29 LD, 27 Lab, 1 Ind.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    and now to net zero with their loss of Hull to the LDs.
    Is it official Hull has fallen?
    29 LD, 27 Lab, 1 Ind.
    Suck it down! Suck it down! Knock out punchy Prescott. 7, 8 9, out. Out out out out.

    Jiggle them baby!
  • OliverPBOliverPB Posts: 2
    edited May 6

    Well actually, Oliver, the electionologists have been saying for weeks and reiterating tonight, 2018 is good high mark for Labour to be compared against.

    I’m know you’re being wry, but a few key quotes from news sources in 2018 to ensure there’s no attempts to rewrite history.

    Daily Mail in 2018: “ Labour has made a small number of gains but fallen well short of expectations”

    BBC in 2018: “The election results will come as a disappointment to Labour, relief for the Conservatives and mild encouragement for the Liberal Democrats.”

    Sky News in 2018: “Labour, in the other hand, will no doubt stage an inquest into why they didn't do better, particularly in London, and suffered losses outside the capital.”

    Turns out lots of media outlets are behind paywall these days making this sort of thing trickier than it used to be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,741
    edited May 6

    HYUFD said:

    Results so far Labour -2, Conservatives -34, LDs + 17, Ind + 2, Ref +1, UKIP -2

    So at the moment it is mainly the LDs and Independents taking Conservative seats, not Labour. Labour even seeing losses, though still the Labour heartland of London to come.

    Tory losses not great but not devastating for Boris either so far

    Quite a few council leaders have called on Boris to be sacked already tonight, he doesn’t seem to have much praetorian guard out there does he? What do you make of that, the amount of calls for Boris to go we have already had?
    There may well still be a leadership challenge, however the results so far are not yet bad enough for Boris to be forced out in my view. However I do accept the London results mainly still to come will likely be poor
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Professor Michael Thrasher on Sky News has also described the results as disappointing for Labour. The party doing well in Wandsworth and Barnet isn't enough.

    LONDON Labour......that's the problem.....for the national party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Labour back to a net loss on BBC.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    Tory Leader in Carlisle John Mallinson (where Tories have lost a slew of seats): “It didn’t help with people like George Eustice telling people to use value brands…there was a lot of animosity towards the PM…I don’t think people think he can be relied upon to tell the truth.”...

    Asked by @thehuwedwards whether he agrees with them, Mallinson says “I can see their point of view.” Then says he thinks the Prime Minister should go.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522396229438775296
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    John Curtice says very possible Keir Starmer won’t be able to say he’s done better than Jeremy Corbyn did in his best local election result.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1522393843655757827
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    OliverPB said:

    Well actually, Oliver, the electionologists have been saying for weeks and reiterating tonight, 2018 is good high mark for Labour to be compared against.

    I’m know you’re being wry, but a few key quotes from news sources in 2018:

    Daily Mail in 2018: “ Labour has made a small number of gains but fallen well short of expectations”

    BBC in 2018: “The election results will come as a disappointment to Labour, relief for the Conservatives and mild encouragement for the Liberal Democrats.”

    Sky News in 2018: “Labour, in the other hand, will no doubt stage an inquest into why they didn't do better, particularly in London, and suffered losses outside the capital.”

    Turns out lots is behind a paywall these days.
    Ha ha! That was nothing compared to what was to follow.

    I’m going to stick with the electionolgists who say Labour we’re not in a bad place in 2018 in the red wall, so standing still there compared to 2018 is not a bad result.

    Have to say though, you are very clued up, and you have given it a damn good try.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    ***ACTION REPLAY*** let’s see that again shall we?

    INCOMING!

    image
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 369

    John Curtice says very possible Keir Starmer won’t be able to say he’s done better than Jeremy Corbyn did in his best local election result.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1522393843655757827

    Being Not-Johnson only takes one so far. Like other centrists before him, he needs to project a vaguely hope-and-chaangey image for voters to project what they want on him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 6
    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    It's a new council so the changes must be notional.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited May 6

    John Curtice says very possible Keir Starmer won’t be able to say he’s done better than Jeremy Corbyn did in his best local election result.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1522393843655757827

    Being Not-Johnson only takes one so far. Like other centrists before him, he needs to project a vaguely hope-and-chaangey image for voters to project what they want on him.
    Or even an actual policy or two. Being not Boris will certainly not be enough if the man retires before the next election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044

    John Curtice says very possible Keir Starmer won’t be able to say he’s done better than Jeremy Corbyn did in his best local election result.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1522393843655757827

    Being Not-Johnson only takes one so far. Like other centrists before him, he needs to project a vaguely hope-and-chaangey image for voters to project what they want on him.
    SKS has several problems - he's emblematic of a London Labour that can't answer a simple question like "what is a woman?" While Blair was as metropolitan as Starmer he represented a northern constituency - Starmer has a double whammy. And on the economic consequences of Brexit he's hamstrung as as soon as he says "it's a disaster" he has to get into why he doesn't want to rejoin....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Labour's current position:

    Seats: no change
    Councils -1

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/results
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    It's a new council so the changes must be notional.
    Ah, that's right. A quarter of the Tory losses come from that one council.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    It's a new council so the changes must be notional.
    Ah, that's right. A quarter of the Tory losses come from that one council.
    It is a jolly good sausage of a result for Labour.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,262
    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    If it is really as low as that then some of the opinion polls are not accurate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    LAB Gain Cumberland, their first council gain of the night. Big swing in seats from the Tories.

    It's a new council so the changes must be notional.
    Ah, that's right. A quarter of the Tory losses come from that one council.
    It is a jolly good sausage of a result for Labour.
    A right banger.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Very nearly a thousand seats in.
    Lab +2
    Con -57
    LD + 30
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    Ashton Hurst:

    Con 1411
    Lab 1384

    This is in Angela Rayner's constituency.

    https://tameside.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=386&RPID=6530475
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    OliverPB said:

    Well actually, Oliver, the electionologists have been saying for weeks and reiterating tonight, 2018 is good high mark for Labour to be compared against.

    I’m know you’re being wry, but a few key quotes from news sources in 2018 to ensure there’s no attempts to rewrite history.

    Daily Mail in 2018: “ Labour has made a small number of gains but fallen well short of expectations”

    BBC in 2018: “The election results will come as a disappointment to Labour, relief for the Conservatives and mild encouragement for the Liberal Democrats.”

    Sky News in 2018: “Labour, in the other hand, will no doubt stage an inquest into why they didn't do better, particularly in London, and suffered losses outside the capital.”

    Turns out lots of media outlets are behind paywall these days making this sort of thing trickier than it used to be.
    And there is a second supporting viewpoint.

    Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative.

    Do you know HYUFD by the way? He is another very polite and clued in Tory like yourself, working the jug on this blog for many years now, like a pro pub stripper trying to capture the rooms attention. Last week he said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking two seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? In all honesty would you agree?

    I’m Jade (identify she, her, Libdem) my girlfriend thinks I’m nuts to stay up next 60 hours to follow this, that only makes me even more determined to do it 😉
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    And there are more than 7 million people like Kirill in the country, Putin’s middle and upper class. Six months before disaster struck one of them told me, “You and Navalny are tilting at windmills. We are the middle class, and everything suits us fine. Putin lets us earn money, and so what that there aren’t elections — you don’t make money off elections.” He had all the rest: children in private schools now and off to the best European universities later, holidays in Crimea and the Emirates three or four times a year, better restaurants than in Europe, clothing, luxury gated communities, etc. Who cares about elections when Chanel and Louis Vuitton make life worth living? Right?

    None of the people I spoke with could formulate the idea or ideology that was the basis of their loyalty. They are all just opportunists who regarded support for the regime as a form of capital investment. They viewed Putin's aggressive rhetoric toward the West as the correct strategy: if a competitor cannot be beaten in business, then he must be crushed, broken, and forced to surrender.

    But unlike the 1998 collapse, the current financial and economic crisis has no positive outlook. There is only one direction it can take: down. The bureaucrats, the siloviki, and the loyalists who have become (almost) an opposition still hope to reverse the negative trend.


    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/05/a-heart-to-heart-with-russias-elites-a77587

    I was in Indonesia when Suharto fell. The deal was "I'll make you rich, and don't bother about democracy." He lasted 9 months after he could no longer support his side of the deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    I think that was more "expectation management" than "prediction"!

    IIRC a "central' estimate for Tory losses was about 200 - so 150 would still be respectable.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Ashton Hurst:

    Con 1411
    Lab 1384

    This is in Angela Rayner's constituency.

    https://tameside.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=386&RPID=6530475

    Flangegate revealing itself here?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    edited May 6
    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    If it is really as low as that then some of the opinion polls are not accurate.
    People having been trying to paint me as a soft spot for Boris remaining in power, I’ve merely been trying to say to them, these votes inform us in a better way if we are on for a 1992 result next time better than the opinion polls can do. Why? Because the leads and deficits in opinion polls don’t clearly show where votes going to fall - Labour don’t just need more votes than 2019 GE, they need those votes where they are needed - not just in London where they already have the parliament MPs, but even in red wall, they don’t need them piling up in constituency next door they already hold, they need them in the places they need to win.

    Mike has used the headline LD MAKING GAINS IN BLUE WALL – LAB NOT MAKING PROGRESS IN RED WALL very early on here, but already it looks the key take out from this set of elections.

    I suggest LD MAKING GAINS IN BLUE WALL – LAB NOT MAKING PROGRESS IN RED WALL will be the summoning up too after every vote is counted.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Just noticed Star Sports Polling Station has a live commentary (as have others, of course)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9J9N3w5pwk
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Ignore Cumberland which seems strange, perhaps due to notional results, and Labour are up a whole three seats after over a thousand declared.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Just noticed Star Sports Polling Station has a live commentary (as have others, of course)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9J9N3w5pwk

    They've just mentioned OGH's letter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    The prediction was made by Martin Baxter, not CCHQ.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    edited May 6

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,617
    London Key wards:

    Lab +0.2%
    Con -4%

    Curtice: Lab not making abnormal gains in London.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    Exactly as expected... yet the results look nothing like that prediction.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    The prediction was made by Martin Baxter, not CCHQ.
    I was referring to the guff they kept pummelling about 500 or even 800 seat losses, pedalled around by them. It was impossible for them to lose that many.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    The prediction was made by Martin Baxter, not CCHQ.
    I was referring to the guff they kept pummelling about 500 or even 800 seat losses, pedalled around by them. It was impossible for them to lose that many.
    That was the prediction by Martin Baxter.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,617
    Swing Con to Lab over last 18 months = 5.5%

    Last year Con lead = 7%

    Implies Lab lead now of 4%.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    The prediction was made by Martin Baxter, not CCHQ.
    I was referring to the guff they kept pummelling about 500 or even 800 seat losses, pedalled around by them. It was impossible for them to lose that many.
    That was the prediction by Martin Baxter.
    I was referring to the way CCHQ and the tory press kept pummelling it and passing it around the press.

    The much more sensible and psephologically based analysis by the Britain Elects / News Statesman team got this spot on, at least that's the way it looks.

    Which is why I said yesterday that it will be 'meh'.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 142
    Tories having a bit of a mare in Derby, held one out of 4 seats so far.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Prof Thrasher: overall Tory losses may be around 150.

    Not too bad compared to predictions - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/02/tories-set-lose-550-seats-worst-local-election-performance-generation/
    No this is exactly where psephologists as opposed to CCHQ predicted it would be:

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    The prediction was made by Martin Baxter, not CCHQ.
    I was referring to the guff they kept pummelling about 500 or even 800 seat losses, pedalled around by them. It was impossible for them to lose that many.
    That was the prediction by Martin Baxter.
    I was referring to the way CCHQ and the tory press kept pummelling it and passing it around the press.

    The much more sensible and psephologically based analysis by the Britain Elects / News Statesman team got this spot on, at least that's the way it looks.

    Which is why I said yesterday that it will be 'meh'.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    But the prediction of 550 losses, the one that I linked above, was not made by them. It was by Martin Baxter.

    As for the New Statesman prediction. Spot on? Have you actually compared their prediction to the current results?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    John Curtice:

    "Professor Sir John Curtice

    Polling expert

    There are still signs of the legacy of Brexit in tonight's results.

    If we compare them with what happened in the 2016 local elections, shortly before the EU referendum, the Conservative performance is clearly stronger in the most pro-Leave areas - up 8 percentage points - than it is in the most pro-Remain ones - down 9 points.

    Labour's performance is also up compared with where it was in 2016 in pro-Remain areas, but weaker in the most pro-Leave ones.

    Although not as stark, some of this pattern is also evident in the change since 2018, when these seats were last contested. The Tories are down 7 points in the most Remain areas, but only by 2 points in the most pro-Leave ones.

    These figures illustrate the limitations in the success of Labour's attempt to woo Leave voters away from the Conservatives and back in their direction."
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
    I do agree with you though, that the expectation management from Tories was laughable, last week the electionologists said 150-200 Tories losses, and with all these results in, it’s exactly what they are still saying.

    But I, Mike, and that header, is also right, it’s not where the losses are, it’s where they didn’t turn out to be that is big take out here.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,080
    Here in West Oxfordshire the Conservatives have hung on to one seat by four votes and another by five! But a couple of formerly very safe seats have fallen (one Green, one LD) and it looks like there could be more to come.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Yep. The greens have done it. No more Labour mayors in Bristol.
    As predicted by me on PB this week, after being told by Snooks it was going to happen by 9/10 margin. Well it sure wasn’t that.

    What it now means is, green, con, Lib Dem gang together to control something they were never likely to control if it remained a mayor.

    Is this start of a trend, chopping mayors to make a makeshift traffic light coalition - as the Penguin Cafe Orchestra would put it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    edited May 6

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
    I do agree with you though, that the expectation management from Tories was laughable, last week the electionologists said 150-200 Tories losses, and with all these results in, it’s exactly what they are still saying.

    But I, Mike, and that header, is also right, it’s not where the losses are, it’s where they didn’t turn out to be that is big take out here.
    The other question is whether Labour is, in its move to the centre, shedding left-leaning votes to the greens (or LibDems).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    edited May 6
    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    The Tories made ridiculous comments about how many seats they might lose as expectations management so are now spinning that it’s all fine.

    There are still over 3,000 seats to declare in England .
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
    I do agree with you though, that the expectation management from Tories was laughable, last week the electionologists said 150-200 Tories losses, and with all these results in, it’s exactly what they are still saying.

    But I, Mike, and that header, is also right, it’s not where the losses are, it’s where they didn’t turn out to be that is big take out here.
    The other question is whether Labour is, in its move to the centre, shedding left-leaning votes to the greens (or LibDems).
    And the answer is, no it isn't.

    Maybe just hold your fire and wait for the fuller results.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,080

    Here in West Oxfordshire the Conservatives have hung on to one seat by four votes and another by five! But a couple of formerly very safe seats have fallen (one Green, one LD) and it looks like there could be more to come.

    And now one to Labour as well. This is turning out to be a very bad night for the Tories in Cameron country - they will lose control of the council for the first time in decades.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    nico679 said:

    The Tories made ridiculous comments about how many seats they might lose as expectations management so are now spinning that it’s all fine.

    There are still over 3,000 seats to declare in England .

    Exactly, and they have staffed this site overnight by the looks of it. And they are making tits of themselves.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
    I do agree with you though, that the expectation management from Tories was laughable, last week the electionologists said 150-200 Tories losses, and with all these results in, it’s exactly what they are still saying.

    But I, Mike, and that header, is also right, it’s not where the losses are, it’s where they didn’t turn out to be that is big take out here.
    The other question is whether Labour is, in its move to the centre, shedding left-leaning votes to the greens (or LibDems).
    Yeah it’s a good point. And I don’t think they can rely on this green vote voting tactically at GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,741
    edited May 6
    Labour gain Wandsworth Council, their first really big gain of the night.

    Aligns with them doing better in Remain areas, as are the LDs, while the Conservative vote holds up in Leave areas

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1522416486509424641?s=20&t=C1zdlqaRw--GrQj57zP07A
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like Mike has jumped the gun with this thread

    Nope. He’s spot on.

    Good morning by the way.
    Good morning. No, he has jumped the gun. Labour look to be doing exactly as expected.

    If you look at the NewStatesman / Britain Elects predictions this all looks exactly right. We await London results with interest, where Labour are looking good.

    The key figure will be the equivalent national vote share when it's released.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/

    I’m all over this. The best psephologisings around.
    When you were asleep, Labour flopped in its Red Wall fight back.
    From here Labour look set to pile on some councillor and council gains, even Westminster too close to call, Wandsworth and Barnet in bag.
    But flopping in the red wall battle throws removing Boris majority in a GE very much into doubt.
    I do agree with you though, that the expectation management from Tories was laughable, last week the electionologists said 150-200 Tories losses, and with all these results in, it’s exactly what they are still saying.

    But I, Mike, and that header, is also right, it’s not where the losses are, it’s where they didn’t turn out to be that is big take out here.
    The other question is whether Labour is, in its move to the centre, shedding left-leaning votes to the greens (or LibDems).
    And the answer is, no it isn't.

    Maybe just hold your fire and wait for the fuller results.
    You think no-one should comment until all the results are in, which will be some time Saturday?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    When @MForstater accidentally referred to a bearded person who identifies as non-binary as 'he', woke Twitter decided she was an evil bigot who deserved all she got. Today Stonewall's barrister called a bearded person who identifies as a woman 'Mr'... Where is the global fury?

    IO: Re Mr Drummond -
    AB: Is it Miss Drummond?
    IO: Ms Drummond perhaps


    https://twitter.com/simonjedge/status/1522283620697878529?s=20&t=AFSgRNUpkKia04Yfpnx9qw
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    Tories tipped to win Sutton from Lib Dems. It’s Brexit still very much in play out there in England you understand?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    Tories just lost Southampton to Labour.

    Yay!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077

    Interesting how the number of Tory seats is almost anti-correlated with the success of the party in the country at large. Reached a near peak in 1998!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029

    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077

    Woo. Things are happening now. Tories gloomy in Westminster count.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    edited May 6
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Wandsworth Council, their first really big gain of the night.

    Aligns with them doing better in Remain areas, as are the LDs, while the Conservative vote holds up in Leave areas

    https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1522416486509424641?s=20&t=C1zdlqaRw--GrQj57zP07A

    The final result will be an impressive win by 10 seats?

    ConHome conceding Westminster HY?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804
    edited May 6
    Oddly enough, the Tories actually gained a seat from Labour in the West Hill ward in Wandsworth, against the trend of the rest of the council.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404

    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077

    Woo. Things are happening now. Tories gloomy in Westminster count.
    I expected Wandsworth, and it's a real psychological blow to the tories, but Westminster would be seismic.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Pompey has fallen to Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,804

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    edited May 6
    My point about jumping the gun on Labour was just to wait a bit. There is a mixed picture, which sensible people were expecting.

    The red wall old Brexit seats are going to be the hardest to turn back to Labour and it's probably the cost of living crisis that will finally lose Boris his lustre in them. Even stupid stunts like Rwanda may not sway them at the next GE.

    But there are a lot of results still to come and we need to see the bigger picture. The national equivalent vote share will be key.

    So just wait!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    It seems that Hillingdon is not as secure as the tories on here were saying yesterday. We were told that the Atlantic would freeze over before Hillingdon ditched the tories. Well, there are rumours that they're in trouble.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
    Against the trend, solid remain council solid leave voting public? The trend tonight is Brexit still alive and well in elections isn’t it?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    By the way, in terms of correlating to the GE we also really need to see how Labour are doing in Scotland. How real is their recovery there?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,029
    Heathener said:

    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077

    Woo. Things are happening now. Tories gloomy in Westminster count.
    I expected Wandsworth, and it's a real psychological blow to the tories, but Westminster would be seismic.
    It would be. And Barnet too is coming. Labour have never controlled Barnet. There’s your morning headlines on the telly.

    I still stand by Mikes header as the main take out from this night for PBers to ponder.

    LD MAKING GAINS IN BLUE WALL – LAB NOT MAKING PROGRESS IN RED WALL
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,741
    Meanwhile Conservatives make a net gain overall in Barnsley

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522421010322100224?s=20&t=C1zdlqaRw--GrQj57zP07A
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,741

    Heathener said:

    Confirmed: Labour GAIN Wandsworth.

    The first time Wandsworth has been won by Labour since 1978.


    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522416919495725077

    Woo. Things are happening now. Tories gloomy in Westminster count.
    I expected Wandsworth, and it's a real psychological blow to the tories, but Westminster would be seismic.
    It would be. And Barnet too is coming. Labour have never controlled Barnet. There’s your morning headlines on the telly.

    I still stand by Mikes header as the main take out from this night for PBers to ponder.

    LD MAKING GAINS IN BLUE WALL – LAB NOT MAKING PROGRESS IN RED WALL
    Labour did control Barnet in the early Blair years
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
    The trend tonight is Brexit still alive and well in elections isn’t it?
    The latest figures suggest a swing to Labour of around 2% in Brexit red wall seats but this needs to be confirmed.

    If I were a tory pinning my hopes on that, I would be extremely concerned. If the rest of the country is turning against the tories, a modest swing against in Brexit seats wouldn't save Boris' bacon.

    And the likelihood of that domino toppling further as the cost of living crisis bites is considerable.

    Anyway, I await the national equivalent vote share and bigger picture later today.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 16,479

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    Looks like the tories may be about to be wiped out in Richmond: losing all 11 of their councillors.

    I'm a little bit more confident about my Woking tip for the LibDems. Someone mocked this the other day: but the tories are in real trouble in West/south-west London and Surrey. I can see them losing up to 10 MPs to the LibDems in 2024 and this could be decisive.

    When the red wall Brexit voters realise that their Boris dream is just a chimera, they will tumble too. It just takes them a little longer than the rest of us to cotton on.

    We will have to wait to see if there is a golden dawn in the south west in the count tomorrow - the Tories have done well there recently to expect too much change, but if there is, Tory losses could still be pushed over 200.
    There's expected to be an "against the trend" result in Sutton, although it may not materialise.
    Against the trend, solid remain council solid leave voting public? The trend tonight is Brexit still alive and well in elections isn’t it?
    Is it? Brexit has happened. Suppose instead it is levelling up that is still in play in the Red Wall — the results would look much the same.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,080
    edited May 6
    Bloodbath continues in West Oxfordshire. Two Conservative cabinet members down and a further seat goes LibDem. Could be more to come.

    Greens doing well in Oxford, picking up two seats that would otherwise be Labour. EDIT: make that three!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    The tories have lost Westminster
This discussion has been closed.