politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big IndyRef polling question tonight. Will YouGov still

bigjohnowls said:

WTF is going off in SA

Adjourned till tomorrow

Richard_Nabavi said:

Carnyx said:

1. On budget, check out Barnett Formula: if England budgets x% less because patients are paying suppliers direct for their trusses, etc., then Scotland immediately gets an x% cut pro rata, and has to do without to the same extent (or find the dosh from elsewhere). That applies to privatisation in general, not just TTIP, of course.

As logical fallacies go, that one is an absolute humdinger! I suppose, however, that it might explain why Scottish MPs are so keen on voting for money to be wasted.

dr_spyn said:

Third.

Some soul searching by Labour Uncut re S Yorks.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/09/11/the-rotherham-abuse-is-merely-yet-another-facet-of-the-disastrous-biraderi-politics-labour-has-nurtured/#more-18685

Beverley_C said:

I cannot see how anyone with an ounce of sense would vote YES. The consequences, which are bad, are so starkly obvious.

Will the turkeys really vote for Xmas?

TheWatcher said:

Sense? That's flown out of the window, to be replaced by blind faith.

"Are you not worried about how your pension will be funded, or who will protect your savings?"

"No. Eck says all will be fine. Inshallah"

HurstLlama said:

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

[edited for space]

Point 1 is ridiculous. The threat to Scotland of England spending less on health?

Point two, no opt out for Scotland, fine, but how on earth do you think you'll be securing any sort of opt out when you rejoin the EU as an independent country? It's doubtful you'll even be able to opt out of the euro. Salmond's going to say 'Please can we join -but that massive free trade deal you've been working on -no thanks' is he?

I'm no fan of what I've seen of TTIP -seems like pretty much an excuse for US corporations to rape and pillage to me, but clearly the best hope of any sort of 'opt out' would be to campaign for one within the UK, where a eurosceptic/left wing coalition on this issue would have real clout.

I think it's just a flat out case of misrepresenting the truth to people to be honest. Let's hope enough of them see through it.

I think you've misunderstood a couple of points, if I may

1. On budget, check out Barnett Formula: if England budgets x% less because patients are paying suppliers direct for their trusses, etc., then Scotland immediately gets an x% cut pro rata, and has to do without to the same extent (or find the dosh from elsewhere). That applies to privatisation in general, not just TTIP, of course.

2. Scotland cannot get an opt out at all separately from the UK as a whole, as the English NHS is being privatised. If it is separate it can decide to keep the TTIP from affecting its NHS, if that is still publicly funded.

On the wider EU issue, it's already very clear that needs and priorities are different in Scotland from UK as a whole (think fisheries and farming, for one thing, vs City of London). Renegotiation and a review is absolutely necessary anyway as the existing deal probably wouldn't cut it.

Carnyx, scrap the Barnett formula. Should have been done donkey's years ago as the man who came up with it has said. Surely it can't survive the current turmoil if the Scots are so stupid as to vote NO.

dr_spyn said:

Third.

Some soul searching by Labour Uncut re S Yorks.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/09/11/the-rotherham-abuse-is-merely-yet-another-facet-of-the-disastrous-biraderi-politics-labour-has-nurtured/#more-18685

dr_spyn said:

Third.

Some soul searching by Labour Uncut re S Yorks.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/09/11/the-rotherham-abuse-is-merely-yet-another-facet-of-the-disastrous-biraderi-politics-labour-has-nurtured/#more-18685

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ken said:

The ICM poll was carried out on Tuesday, and I was one of the people that got a call from them. As a Yes voter and a blogger I was interested in asking a few questions of my own after the survey was over, so the girl put me through to her supervisor who was willing to chat. The poll is due out on Sunday, but I'll be it leaks before that.

Calls are made via an automatic dialler, and they had already spoken to enough people over 65, so were only speaking to those of us under that age. The problem they must have is that this system works on land lines only, so the poor and young are hard to catch. Their system weights down people who have not voted in the last election by 50%, but they are clearly weighting for both the British and Scottish elections, since we were asked how we had voted in both of them. Quite how they handle folk like me who voted in 2010 but did not live in Scotland for the 2011 Scottish elections is anyone's guess.

Anyway, I was asked how sure I was to vote Yes, how sure I was to vote, and how I had voted in those two previous elections.

www.kenbell.info

ICM also ring mobiles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ken said:

The ICM poll was carried out on Tuesday, and I was one of the people that got a call from them. As a Yes voter and a blogger I was interested in asking a few questions of my own after the survey was over, so the girl put me through to her supervisor who was willing to chat. The poll is due out on Sunday, but I'll be it leaks before that.

Calls are made via an automatic dialler, and they had already spoken to enough people over 65, so were only speaking to those of us under that age. The problem they must have is that this system works on land lines only, so the poor and young are hard to catch. Their system weights down people who have not voted in the last election by 50%, but they are clearly weighting for both the British and Scottish elections, since we were asked how we had voted in both of them. Quite how they handle folk like me who voted in 2010 but did not live in Scotland for the 2011 Scottish elections is anyone's guess.

Anyway, I was asked how sure I was to vote Yes, how sure I was to vote, and how I had voted in those two previous elections.

www.kenbell.info

ICM also ring mobiles

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ken said:

The ICM poll was carried out on Tuesday, and I was one of the people that got a call from them. As a Yes voter and a blogger I was interested in asking a few questions of my own after the survey was over, so the girl put me through to her supervisor who was willing to chat. The poll is due out on Sunday, but I'll be it leaks before that.

Calls are made via an automatic dialler, and they had already spoken to enough people over 65, so were only speaking to those of us under that age. The problem they must have is that this system works on land lines only, so the poor and young are hard to catch. Their system weights down people who have not voted in the last election by 50%, but they are clearly weighting for both the British and Scottish elections, since we were asked how we had voted in both of them. Quite how they handle folk like me who voted in 2010 but did not live in Scotland for the 2011 Scottish elections is anyone's guess.

Anyway, I was asked how sure I was to vote Yes, how sure I was to vote, and how I had voted in those two previous elections.

www.kenbell.info

ICM also ring mobiles

They may not be doing so when trying to hit a particular country / region. Its far easier to ring random numbers in a few telephone codes..

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ken said:

The ICM poll was carried out on Tuesday, and I was one of the people that got a call from them. As a Yes voter and a blogger I was interested in asking a few questions of my own after the survey was over, so the girl put me through to her supervisor who was willing to chat. The poll is due out on Sunday, but I'll be it leaks before that.

Calls are made via an automatic dialler, and they had already spoken to enough people over 65, so were only speaking to those of us under that age. The problem they must have is that this system works on land lines only, so the poor and young are hard to catch. Their system weights down people who have not voted in the last election by 50%, but they are clearly weighting for both the British and Scottish elections, since we were asked how we had voted in both of them. Quite how they handle folk like me who voted in 2010 but did not live in Scotland for the 2011 Scottish elections is anyone's guess.

Anyway, I was asked how sure I was to vote Yes, how sure I was to vote, and how I had voted in those two previous elections.

www.kenbell.info

ICM also ring mobiles

Couldn't mention this last night due to Wifi issues, but George Takei (Mr Sulu from Star Trek) was on Through the Keyhole (Keith Lemon version) last night!

Bugger. Missed it.

https://www.itv.com/itvplayer/through-the-keyhole/series-1/episode-2-1

But you have to register (free).

FF42 said:

Beverley_C said:

HurstLlama said:

No, Mrs C, No! Please, I beg you, stop posting such stuff. You are English aren't you,

No. Northern Irish

HurstLlama said:

or at any rate reside in England?

Yes

HurstLlama said:

Then the worst possible result will be a narrow NO vote. As a strong vote in favour of the Union seems impossible and our own, English, politicians seem determined to inflict an even more unbalanced settlement on us, then a YES vote is actually in our best interests.

Sorry Mr Llama, but I must disagree. Partly because I am a sentimentalist but also because I am a realist.

The thought of being rid of so many apparently embittered, ungrateful ingrates is comforting but they are only a fraction of the people in Scotland. What about the rest who do not want to be cut loose? Surely we have to stand by them and support them or it is not much of a union. Not all the YES voters will be the bitter, nasty Nats either. Many of them will be decent people who have been talked round, misled or just have some sort of dream. We need to offer them the other side of the argument, persuade them to change their mind.

Next - do not imagine that the effects will be limited to Scotland. We are entwined with them as a result of 300 years of integration and it is very difficult to untangle things. There will be severe economic impacts down here too. And what about emigration? What about those who are not encumbered with mortgages and just decide to leave and head south?

The situation is a shambles but it needs a better solution than throwing the baby out with the bath-water.

Thanks, Beverley, I for one appreciate the sentiment. It's a stupid project. Some of us know just how damaging it will be and has been.

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Just covering the south of Scotland - probably the most anti-indy location outside of shetland/orkney.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Just covering the south of Scotland - probably the most anti-indy location outside of shetland/orkney.

The full survation tables are up if you haven't already seen them

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Just covering the south of Scotland - probably the most anti-indy location outside of shetland/orkney.

Carnyx said:

I said 'budgeted' not 'end of year outcome'. If you budget £x for hearing aid services, and privatise that, then most or all of that £x will disappear from the next year's budget. (Same if you go about it by allocating an overall total and them remove part of it.) Ergo Barnett cut. Anything illogical with that?

RobC said:

FPT

RobC said:

HurstLlama said:

A Plea.

The Scottish referendum is looking increasingly close. Clearly there is work to be done if the best result for all is to be achieved. May I ask, plead, even beg, those posters on here who reside in Scotland to use their time more wisely. Stop posting on here and, instead, use the time to persuade your compatriots to vote YES .

It is not surprising that English posters on here who back a Scottish Yes tend to be Ukipers or crypto Ukipers who basically are happy to see Scotland commit economic hari-kari to further their real interest which is to pull the rest of the UK out of the EU. I think the recent intervention by big business in the Scottish debate is a mere foretaste of what you'd see with an EU in/out referendum. As hopefully we'll see next week enough nervous middle ground voters will take fright and opt for the status quo (albeit with devo plus in Scotland or whatever concessions DC obtains from our EU partners in that debate*).

* if it ever happens

AllyM said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Am told another big FTSE retailer also poised to warn on the cost implications of independence .......#Scotref

Bluffing Tipping Point

I've heard ASDA have released something?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

Scott_P said:

@PaulBrandITV: At @ITVborder and @ITVtynetees we've done our own #indyref polling via @ComResPolls. One out at 6pm, one out on Monday (all being well).

Just covering the south of Scotland - probably the most anti-indy location outside of shetland/orkney.

The full survation tables are up if you haven't already seen them

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Can the Cyberunionists explain why if we are "better together" we play our three most popular team sports, football, rugby and cricket, as separate teams and leagues? And in the case of the first two, we have done so since the mid-19th century?

If we are so "United" as a Kingdom, would you argue for a united UK football team and football league?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Can the Cyberunionists explain why if we are "better together" we play our three most popular team sports, football, rugby and cricket, as separate teams and leagues? And in the case of the first two, we have done so since the mid-19th century?

If we are so "United" as a Kingdom, would you argue for a united UK football team and football league?