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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big IndyRef polling question tonight. Will YouGov still
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big IndyRef polling question tonight. Will YouGov still have YES in the lead?
The extraordinary feature of these closing IndyRef polls is that the firms that hitherto were most favourable to NO have moved sharply to YES while those that hitherto had YES in the best positions have remained stable.
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Will the turkeys really vote for Xmas?
Some soul searching by Labour Uncut re S Yorks.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/09/11/the-rotherham-abuse-is-merely-yet-another-facet-of-the-disastrous-biraderi-politics-labour-has-nurtured/#more-18685
Adjourned till tomorrow
It must be admitted that one of the striking things about the Labour-LD aministratio0ns in Scotland was how much money they had unspent at the end of the year. Mr Swinney has reportedly been far more rigorous. And the biggest single wastes were the Parliament building and the Trams -both Labour (with help from LDs and Tories for the latter).
Are we discovering today that charm, guile, engagement and the gift of the gab can take you an awful awful long way in politics - but that when it counts content and a coherent message may prevail?
Eck looking alot like the emperor with no clothes and whimpering, blustering, deflecting. You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh.
(People give a very serious shit about being bankrupted and laughing this stuff off is trite beyond belief. They are potentially days away from committing to becoming country with no money. WTF!).
If you look at the amount sterling moved yesterday, apparently largelo off the back of an opinion poll by survation, that's a potentially financiall rewarding way of getting a return from asking 1,000 people what they think about something.
I cant think of a time in living memory when advanced knowledge of polling data could have been as financiall lucrative as the lsat 48 hours and the next.
There isn't just massive liquidiity on Betfair - you could even use it to place big bets in (stake unlimited) financial markets...I wonder if hedge funds have been commissioning any private polling?
"Are you not worried about how your pension will be funded, or who will protect your savings?"
"No. Eck says all will be fine. Inshallah"
Emblems of affiliation. Repeated mantras. Adulation of the leader.
If there is a Yes, the followers are going to be very, very, very unhappy when the rapture doesn't arrive...
YouGov don't leak, they only send the poll to the client and no one else.
That said Rupert Murdoch's twitter feed is worth watching.
Calls are made via an automatic dialler, and they had already spoken to enough people over 65, so were only speaking to those of us under that age. The problem they must have is that this system works on land lines only, so the poor and young are hard to catch. Their system weights down people who have not voted in the last election by 50%, but they are clearly weighting for both the British and Scottish elections, since we were asked how we had voted in both of them. Quite how they handle folk like me who voted in 2010 but did not live in Scotland for the 2011 Scottish elections is anyone's guess.
Anyway, I was asked how sure I was to vote Yes, how sure I was to vote, and how I had voted in those two previous elections.
www.kenbell.info
Those heartless Tory bastards, the IFS... Oh, wait.
http://theconversation.com/scotland-will-not-be-offered-devo-max-after-a-no-vote-heres-why-31500
I could cash out now for a 6% profit but given that yesterday I was sitting on a 60% profit I fell there is still room.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100285997/alex-salmond-is-starting-to-remind-me-of-fred-goodwin/
Oh, Alex...
The other kind of estate, for a change, in response to Mr Bond on the previous thread.
I would have thought a YouGov 58/42 for No would push Yes out to approx 7.
58/42 for No plus all the news re banks moving etc would surely just about finish it.
It seems at last some people are beginning to wake up to what's been going on in these areas
Areas with segregated, divided communities leading to civil strife...
Who knew? What could have been done?
Surely not...
"2. Between 2009-10 and 2015-16 spending on the NHS in England will, on currently announced plans, have risen by about 4% in real terms ....
3. Over the same period ..... Spending on the NHS in Scotland has fallen by 1%."
The thought of being rid of so many apparently embittered, ungrateful ingrates is comforting but they are only a fraction of the people in Scotland. What about the rest who do not want to be cut loose? Surely we have to stand by them and support them or it is not much of a union. Not all the YES voters will be the bitter, nasty Nats either. Many of them will be decent people who have been talked round, misled or just have some sort of dream. We need to offer them the other side of the argument, persuade them to change their mind.
Next - do not imagine that the effects will be limited to Scotland. We are entwined with them as a result of 300 years of integration and it is very difficult to untangle things. There will be severe economic impacts down here too. And what about emigration? What about those who are not encumbered with mortgages and just decide to leave and head south?
The situation is a shambles but it needs a better solution than throwing the baby out with the bath-water.
"The Scots are too stupid to rule themselves"
"The Scots are too poor to rule themselves"
"The Scots are too anti-English to rule themselves"
"HM The Queen will have a heart attack and die if the Scots vote yes"
"Scotland will immediately be consumed by the ocean if they vote yes"
"There will be all-out global thermonuclear war if the Scots vote yes"
"The Sun will go Nova and destroy the entire solar system if the Scots vote yes"
Er, you get the picture!
If you haven't seen it, go and find a shop and have a butcher's - it's on page 33.
Just need one last Yes lead to equalise green - otherwise has been a fun ride an a cheap bet.
Just had a guy into today who is so mad about Salmond he went and joined the Better Together campaign last night. He is male middle aged born in Scotland and Central Belt.
Another tidbit. Walking through Glasgow this morning on the way to a meeting and watched for 10 mins the Yes campaigner on the loud speaker in the main shopping street. He was ranting and raving about Thatcher and Falklands. In 10 mins he got not one person to pick up a leaflet. Everyone was ignoring him.
It is hard to say entirely as I don't spend time with the NEDs in Springburn but the general mood swing seems to be away from the YES and Salmond. Maybe the worst thing that could have happened to the SNP was that they got a single poll lead as it has woken up the No campaign.
58 No 42 Yes would end this as an event and the price would be 12 or more.
I think the ship has sailed though - NO probably is on a train ride to 1.01..
Price blocker ?
So we should get it tomorrow (fingers crossed)
But you have to register (free).
@TelePolitics: Alex Salmond goes to war with BBC over RBS 'leak' http://t.co/BaoLdEZ4nJ
11/09/2014 13:25
UKIP selects John Bickley to fight the Heywood and Middleton by-election. He previously fought Wythenshawe and Sale East.
I hope the commonsense prevails, but I fear that the damage that has been done will colour relations between Scotland and the rest of us for years to come.
So now everyone sees the marketing value of IndyPolls.
Matt is great for a one liner - but Brookes does super full colour caricatures
I see they're confirmed as moving too.
That's a biggie. Any idea how many customers they've got?
Do Sainsburys still do banking?
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf
If Salmond doesn;t get independence, he will get big new powers anyway - which he can then sell as a victory
Its a win win for him.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article2481811.ece
BluffingTipping PointThreads was about a nuclear war erupting over Communist incursion over the East/west German border, the main story was about the effect of a nuclear strike on Sheffield, and the fate of the characters. The Sheffield council were trapped in an underground bunker and by the time the army had a chance to dig them out, they had all died. It focused a lot on the breakdown of social order and later went into a rather wrongheaded dystopian future with Britain back to a pre industrial rev, agrarian society. Scary, but woefully inaccurate, too optimistic about the immediate term prospects and far too pessimistic about the long term future of survivors.
It is available on YouTube, broken into segments.
The Day After is a better film, or the 60s War Game which accurately reflects the ingrained ignorance of the time
BluffingTipping PointTo see what, ask yourself a question. Where does the mysterious lost money go?
http://willievass.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/110914-Rangers-training/G0000iGedT_2wAfA/I0000c0Eqcl.8b4A/C0000jsP5NTBBSW8/
"Rangers manager Ally McCoist displaying his support for the No campaign in the Scottish Referendum with a badge on his training shirt"
Whereas The Day After is a ground strike, so survivors are seen walking through the fallout and the associated horrific death from radiation sickness.
Which is insane.
That is, I entirely agree, not the same as money saved each year (which may or may not revert to the Treasury from Scotland: I am not sure if this is compulsory though it was certainly remitted under Labour-LDs.
So given how much they were upwighted an outlier level of No-ness amongst them would explain why both that group and Glasgow was so out of line with the rest of the polls.
If we are so "United" as a Kingdom, would you argue for a united UK football team and football league?
Here's another - given that the John Lewis CEO have suggested that their prices in Scotland will have to rise eventually because England subsidises their operations in further flung places then presumably that will apply to the Royal Mail. One price fitting all UK destinations will surely be no more.
Would be nice if you came clean before continuing to attack other posters.
Ladbrokes have Sturgeon at 1/2 but the rest of the list could make some good returns.
It also follows that, shorn of these subsidies, retailers would be able to cut prices in England.
Go Yes!
Spreadex have a proper vote% spreadbet market. Not the silly binary market offered by SPIN.
Come on Sporting, up yer game!
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Spreadex Vote %:
Yes % SELL 45.5 - 47.5 BUY
No % SELL 52.5 - 54.5 BUY