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The French election markets are too confident – politicalbetting.com
The French election markets are too confident – politicalbetting.com
After the brawl, the duel. The French Presidential election has been in full swing for the best part of a year for many voters, but we’ve now entered the final fortnight where the top two candidates face off. Polls show Macron consolidating his position and his lead returning to roughly 55:45, but I feel markets are too confident that the polls are spot on.
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You can get 40-1 on Macron at anything over 65%. That's 40-1 to repeat the 2017 result. Remember, he did better in this first round than last time.
I still think it will break 60:40. There's some good value betting to be had here.
Love it. Thank you. Brilliant tip.
ETA I cashed out a week or so back, just before the first round.
2nd ETA there might be similar small anomalies between the Macron & Le Pen percentage markets.
Previous day was 55/45.
10 polls completed in last two days - Macron on 53 or higher in every poll except one.
All polls moving in Macron direction or flat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election#Macron_vs._Le_Pen
Equally given we missed this for so long, what else might we have missed that came before, ravages by the destruction wrought by the ice age and shifting coastlines. If I was the worlds richest man I don’t think I’d bother buying Twitter but I’d be mighty tempted to spend an equivalent amount on subsea archeology on places like Doggerland.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10723057/Britons-Boris-Johnsons-Rwanda-plan-poll-says-Huge-support-defies-hand-wringing-critics.html
F1: had a free bet and put it on Perez to win at 13, each way.
Given the Red Bull's competitiveness but also the chance for woe, seems decent odds to me. He could've won in Saudi Arabia, had misfortune not bedevilled his race.
No doubt with 100% Macron wins. Last time he was an unknown quantity. Far more, who would choose him this time will stay at home. Good bet on Le Pen.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3886021#Comment_3886021
That poll is full of contradictions, and many details of the proposed scheme are yet to be revealed.
On topic, is it surprising that the Mail has a poll with questions written to give a pro-Conservative bias.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/macron-struggles-to-mobilise-frances-muslim-voters-after-five-years-attacking-them/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1650003031
If you are from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, west Africa, north Africa, are you going to want to give a snakehead ten grand to risk your life in a small boat, for a ticket to Rwanda? Or stay in France instead. Or any of the other dozen countries you have gone through to get to Calais. It will end the camps in Calais, For which I guess the French will delighted.
How badly do you think this policy will play in, say, Kent? Spoiler: it will be very popular. Scotland? Maybe not so much.
So they will assume it won't apply to them, and pay the money.
Which is why this will make little or no difference.
For anyone trying to make sense of this war, an Australian gent has a channel called 'Perun' which goes into various aspects, from drones, anti-tank missiles, to the role for reservists and the economics of the war. All are long-form. I am a total military non-expert, but it *feels* like he is both knowledgeable and fair.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
Well worth a watch IMO if you have the time.
Nearly two thirds of Britons want Boris Johnson out if he gets more party fines YouGov finds.
Voters are overwhelmingly against Johnson on the issue. Sixty-eight per cent believe he intentionally misled parliament, including 48 per cent of 2019 Conservative voters and 32 per cent of present Conservative voters. Only 18 per cent of Britons believe he did not intentionally mislead.
Labour 38
Tories 33
LibDems 10
Greens 7
As ever with YouGov, the Greens look a bit toppy.
“If” being the operative word.
Who are these 14% who think he's telling the truth?
He is too unpopular, especially with rising cost of living to win by another landslide. However most voters are still too wary of Le Pen to make her President.
Only things that could really change that are an outstanding performance by either at the debate this week. Or a very low turnout
I suspect that no more than a token handful will be deported as intended.
If the Tories want to dog whistle their base and then find false comfort in questionable polls, that seems ok to me. Let them conduct politics in an increasingly out of touch but decreasing in size bubble. The only risk is when they are ultimate defeated they then might call foul much as the Trump supporters did in 2020.
My strategy on a number of recent elections is to bet both ends against the consensus, as bettors do tend to have more confidence than polling really justifies. This strategy of @Quincel is similar.
https://twitter.com/ericamarat/status/1515085010583314434?s=21&t=v_xDJP9RKO-wjPdjK4UZEg
“Kazakhstan has now explained that the May 9 parade is not feasible because the priority is to maintain combat readiness of the armed forces to ensure protection and defense of gov and military facilities. Hands down, this is bold.
Correct me if I’m wrong: Kazakhstan MoD has basically said that instead of celebrating Soviet Russian May 9 version of the V-day, they are instead preparing for a now plausible Russian “special operation” scenario on their territory“
My hunch is that they are probably better off with Boris,, because the tribal vote will construct reasons to overlook his failings and failures. Whereas the Boris fan club might well back Farage, rather than a more conventional Tory.
There is a lot that Big Dog wants to not talk about.
8. How Priti Patel and Vincent Biruta's trade in human beings is to work.
- UK government to offer Rwanda lists of people.
- Rwanda can say yes or no to any of those people offered to it by UK.
- But the people transported to Rwanda (for cash) can not say yes or no to Rwanda
https://t.co/Jt8jxwcVQK
It looks like Rwanda saw the UK government coming.
Given the poor odds of the Channel crossing, a small risk of being passed somewhere else isn't going to be a game changer, is it?
Is this a deliberate mistake by Mail to engineer the poll? Or just journos not on top of their brief commissioning a shite poll?
The FPN however is big, because it's personal.
I’m not really that up on it but the reactions, both pro and anti, seem to verge on the hysterical.
1) the overseas application centres such as were in Afghanistan.
2) entering the UK legally on another visa (such as a student visa) then applying.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/memorandum-of-understanding-mou-between-the-uk-and-rwanda/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-government-of-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-government-of-the-republic-of-r?fbclid=IwAR0zjrlgHvj3AF5GS1EG0LXjWSQFZ2SPDL9AwPKUYZ3K1_54Z_ykoXtLhsk#part-1--transfer-arrangments
I said a while back that Kazakhstan should be congratulated in the long run for the stance they have taken on the war in Ukraine. I can imagine that Putin is really very, very angry with them. Given the cultural and economic ties between them and Russia, it cannot have been an easy decision.
Though the question is what troops Putin can field to perform yet another 'special operation', especially if he does not declare war on Ukraine.
This evil (*) Russian regime must be stopped now, because stopping it later will be even more costly.
(*) I know some people grasp their handbags at my using their term. Again I ask them what they'd prefer me to use.
Can’t say I agree with that. I’m now in the anti camp rather than the don’t know camp.
Surely there is a way to help genuine asylum seekers, and sift out economic migrants, without resorting to such a policy.
We seem to have a situation where Refugee charities/groups/lawyers and many politicians on the left regard all migrants as genuine and demand an open door and the reverse is true of those on the other side of the debate.
We cannot punish the genuinely needy. It’s barbaric.
The British will be Pariahs of Europe.
Our international reputation will be shot. Even Ukraine will feel dirty dealing with us.
No one cares about the detail of the policy. Just that we're planning deportations of immigrants to Rwanda.
It reads like something the Nazis were planning for the Jews in the 30's.
Wlat else?
Zemmour's result was also lower than any of the polls indicated but he outperformed in Paris and came third, so perhaps the pollsters are struggling to weight urban vs rural voters correctly.
It is merely an objection to the implication that certain persons are under the influence of mysterious outside malevolent forces.
Thus downplaying Putin, and by extension, Russia, full agency in their moral choices.
Evil doesn't exist. Horrendous choices do.
https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1515047569004580874
And a related article:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220416_10/
Le Pen won two departments in 2017. On current polling, she'll win 45.
This is not an off shoring proposal it is a deportation proposal, where Rwanda takes deportees. In practice I suspect that it will be those who have exhausted their appeals here, whose home country has refused, or doesn't have direct flights, such as Iran.
It is very unlikely that the suggestion that people will be taken directly from boats to the airport will happen.
Incidentally the success rate for the boat arrivals is very high:
"Top nationalities of small boat arrivals in 2021 compared to success rate in asylum claims before appeal:
8,000 Iranians: 89% get asylum
5,000 Iraqis: 47% get asylum
3,000 Eritreans: 97% get asylum
2,000 Syrians: 99% get asylum
1,000 Vietnamese: 71% get asylum"
https://twitter.com/mckinneytweets/status/1496797427013140484?t=aQTovnjrb26nbTrVr-QbUQ&s=19
If the Home Office did their job properly and started processing quicker we wouldnt have as big a "problem".
More legal routes would help a lot. I get the impression it was easier for Jews to leave Germany pre-war than it is for refugees to enter the UK now.
French election. 60/40 Macron.
There is a global refugee crisis and we should be pulling our weight. It would be far better, obviously, if we had more effective official channels for refugees to come to the UK, so that people didn't feel compelled to make the dangerous channel crossing.
https://twitter.com/alasdairmack66/status/1514925689379696640?s=21&t=qp32xpktbwJslALsZIkNkw
Evil acts do exist. And I also disagree with "Horrendous choices do". A 'horrendous choice' might be whether I have my left leg chopped off or my right arm. They had a very easy choice: not to start the war. They chose to perform an evil act.
Call a spade a spade. Putin's, and the Russian regime's, actions are evil. And repeatedly so.
We will do none of those things, the only logical conclusion is that the policy is designed to be blocked by the courts to further deepen the culture war and weaken the powers of the independent judiciary. Nothing to do with refugees at all.