Agatha Christie's 'Why didn't they ask Evans?' on Britbox (scripted by Hugh Laurie) is excellent.
ITV did a version in the early eighties that was very good and only 90 minutes long.
I saw it actually - with Francesca Annis. That was nice. Good chemistry between the leads. This is also good. Likeable leads. Nicely shot. Dialogue crackles nicely and picks an acceptable path between modern, and the 30's era.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
To be more.pro-Putin than the President of Belarus is quite an achievement.
Her winning might up end the whole apple cart and help Putin win by splitting the europeans.
She wants her country to side with a war criminal.
Says it all really.
Pray God the french make the right choice, but I am not convinced they will despite what polls are saying at moment.
Can the 2020s get any fecking shittier?
Hopefully not. But the shittiness started in 2016, just saying.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
We are all prone to flights of fancy from time to time.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
The direct military impact is minimal. Odesa already seemed safe from an amphibious assault. Moskva isn't one of the ships that is equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and those can be launched from far offshore.
The morale impact is substantial. If Russia had been able to appear in complete control of the Black Sea then this would create a feeling of superiority that would make victory on land seem like an inevitability, a matter only of time. But now this invulnerability and superiority is dispelled. The prospect of defeat looms large.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
So if we go to war with russia we can invade france...bonus
Now, about those asylum centres in RwandaCalais.....
Technically dont we already own Calais due to Troyes
AFAIK we've relinquished all claims on France since the Treaty of Amiens, in return they dropped claims on the Channel Islands.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
After the Belgrano sinking the Argentine navy stayed in port. It wouldnt surprise me if the Black Sea fleet did the same.
Indeed, was the last Russian naval victory Navarino, nearly 2 centuries ago? And that with allies...
Sinope, 1853.
I thought Sinope was a Jovian moon
It's a port on the northern coast of Turkey.
There were also minor Russian naval victories in the Baltic (with British support) in 1915, and in the Black Sea in 1916.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
Ha! Name 1 that went wrong. Just 1 needed.
You were constantly ramping Boris being ousted a few weeks ago. You were even specifying "by next Wednesday" at one point.
It was a Tuesday actually. And I named the day a month out and counted down… right to the very day Putin first fired missiles.
Now Farooq, are you saying if Putin had the one sensible notion this year and returned to Baracks instead, Boris would still be there?
Name another 1.
Time to dust off my 1 January 2022 predictions:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
After the Belgrano sinking the Argentine navy stayed in port. It wouldnt surprise me if the Black Sea fleet did the same.
Indeed, was the last Russian naval victory Navarino, nearly 2 centuries ago? And that with allies...
Sinope, 1853.
I thought Sinope was a Jovian moon
It's a port on the northern coast of Turkey.
There were also minor Russian naval victories in the Baltic (with British support) in 1915, and in the Black Sea in 1916.
So now you're trying to cover up the Russian invasion of Jupiter? Commie.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
Ha! Name 1 that went wrong. Just 1 needed.
You were constantly ramping Boris being ousted a few weeks ago. You were even specifying "by next Wednesday" at one point.
It was a Tuesday actually. And I named the day a month out and counted down… right to the very day Putin first fired missiles.
Now Farooq, are you saying if Putin had the one sensible notion this year and returned to Baracks instead, Boris would still be there?
Name another 1.
Time to dust off my 1 January 2022 predictions:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
Still heading for 8/10. Well, you never know.
Number 6 might be a pass: Omicron and BA2? Or was Omicron already a thing last year? It all blurs together for me...
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
Ha! Name 1 that went wrong. Just 1 needed.
You were constantly ramping Boris being ousted a few weeks ago. You were even specifying "by next Wednesday" at one point.
It was a Tuesday actually. And I named the day a month out and counted down… right to the very day Putin first fired missiles.
Now Farooq, are you saying if Putin had the one sensible notion this year and returned to Baracks instead, Boris would still be there?
Name another 1.
Time to dust off my 1 January 2022 predictions:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
Still heading for 8/10. Well, you never know.
Looking at some of the others, some interesting situations.
On #6, I'd say we've had one (Omicron) though I gather there was technically two variants of that (BA1 and BA2) so you could claim victory there.
#4 is really bold. You could get double digit odds on that I think.
If I could get evens on each one I'd back #1, #2, and #7. Definitely bet against #4 and #5, others are close calls (haven't really looked up #10).
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
The direct military impact is minimal. Odesa already seemed safe from an amphibious assault. Moskva isn't one of the ships that is equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and those can be launched from far offshore.
The morale impact is substantial. If Russia had been able to appear in complete control of the Black Sea then this would create a feeling of superiority that would make victory on land seem like an inevitability, a matter only of time. But now this invulnerability and superiority is dispelled. The prospect of defeat looms large.
It had a substantial anti-aircraft capability - as do other ships in the fleet, which are now sailing much further offshore. If the Ukraine airforce had more aircraft it would make quite a big difference.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
Ha! Name 1 that went wrong. Just 1 needed.
You were constantly ramping Boris being ousted a few weeks ago. You were even specifying "by next Wednesday" at one point.
It was a Tuesday actually. And I named the day a month out and counted down… right to the very day Putin first fired missiles.
Now Farooq, are you saying if Putin had the one sensible notion this year and returned to Baracks instead, Boris would still be there?
Name another 1.
Time to dust off my 1 January 2022 predictions:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
Still heading for 8/10. Well, you never know.
Number 6 might be a pass: Omicron and BA2? Or was Omicron already a thing last year? It all blurs together for me...
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
You agreed with me yesterday, he’s currently indestructible. 🤦♀️
I agreed that yesterday the people I met in Heanor/ Eastwood were pro Johnson. Today I met a Conservative Brexiteer who was furious with Johnson.
Many people (probably those who themselves ignored lockdown rules) are comfortable with Johnson's FPNs. Most of us who played with a straight bat (including Conservative voters) are very vexed by the parties.
As to Churchillian Johnson and his Falklands Factor, despite Conservative Party spinning, it isn't happening.
Where I do agree with you is an early election in June is Johnson's best chance of a (much reduced- but not guaranteed) win.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
So if we go to war with russia we can invade france...bonus
Now, about those asylum centres in RwandaCalais.....
Technically dont we already own Calais due to Troyes
AFAIK we've relinquished all claims on France since the Treaty of Amiens, in return they dropped claims on the Channel Islands.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
You agreed with me yesterday, he’s currently indestructible. 🤦♀️
I agreed that yesterday the people I met in Heanor/ Eastwood were pro Johnson. Today I met a Conservative Brexiteer who was furious with Johnson.
Many people (probably those who themselves ignored lockdown rules) are comfortable with Johnson's FPNs. Most of us who played with a straight bat (including Conservative voters) are very vexed by the parties.
As to Churchillian Johnson and his Falklands Factor, despite Conservative Party spinning, it isn't happening.
Where I do agree with you is an early election in June is Johnson's best chance of a (much reduced- but not guaranteed) win.
Well thanks. At least someone agrees on some of my analysis.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Any word on Admiral Osipov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet?
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
If true, it would be (one of) the biggest single losses of life for Russian military personnel in the entire course of the war to date. That will have to have a large psychological impact on the entire Russian military and, in particular, on the Russian Navy.
In terms of impact on the war, two significant potential impacts:
1. It probably means that any marine landing to attack Odesa is now removed from the playbook entirely 2. Moscva played a huge role in protecting the Black Sea fleet from aerial threats, and so the fleet will probably move much further away from the Ukrainian coastline now, and Russia's air superiority over the Black Sea and Crimea will have been diminished. Whether this is to a game-changing level is debatable.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Initially I "liked" that but it felt wrong so I'm now rambling in a reply instead. Does this have greater tactical, strategic, morale or PR impact?
The direct military impact is minimal. Odesa already seemed safe from an amphibious assault. Moskva isn't one of the ships that is equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and those can be launched from far offshore.
The morale impact is substantial. If Russia had been able to appear in complete control of the Black Sea then this would create a feeling of superiority that would make victory on land seem like an inevitability, a matter only of time. But now this invulnerability and superiority is dispelled. The prospect of defeat looms large.
Wait a minute. Surely it's the blocking of ships from Odessa that really matters? Putin was trying to make them effectively landlocked.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
To be more.pro-Putin than the President of Belarus is quite an achievement.
It looks to me that the value bet at present is Macron greater than 60% at 14 with BFX.
Good Spot, and yes agree that's value, so I have had a very small nibble at it.
I don't think Macron will get over 60% but I do think its possible and the chance are bigger that 1 in 14 making it the value bet IMO
Doesn't seem very stormy in the Black Sea at the moment according to the weather sites.
The storm was metaphorical.
Some people on here have a very tenuous grip on reality. If Putin and his mouthpieces say it was stormy, it was stormy. If Putin says the ship did not sink, it did not sink. All else is fake news.
But hopefully the quasi-effective choice makes it over the utterly unacceptable one.
Were any of the French Presidential candidates "acceptable" in your eyes? The centre-right candidate, Pecresse, got less than 5% of the vote - Fillon got 20% four years ago.
The disaster in French politics isn't the failure of the centre - that's what is holding the line. The failure was the traditional centre-right and centre-left (the Socialist Hidalgo did worse).
The Socialist party vote had already collapsed to Macron in 2017. This time too more 2017 Fillon voters voted for Macron than Pecresse.
Some Fillon voters also went to Zemmour or Le Pen and some Socialist voters went for Melenchon. The centre right and centre left in France were squeezed from both ends
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
To be more.pro-Putin than the President of Belarus is quite an achievement.
It looks to me that the value bet at present is Macron greater than 60% at 14 with BFX.
It is odd she has doubled down on the Putin love at this stage of the campaign.
She's had her instructions
It’s a bit odd if her instructions are to throw the election.
Today, school officials who coerce students into prayer go on the offensive, claiming that any attempt to halt their efforts at religious coercion is actually persecution of their religious beliefs. Supervisors, lawmakers, and judges who attempt to shield children from being indoctrinated are recast as anti-Christian bigots.
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Any word on Admiral Osipov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet?
I don't know about Admiral Osipov, but I think most commanders of fleets at war, nowadays command from land, it gives them better overall situational awareness, and less risk of orders from Kremlin being intercepted. however if we dont see prof of life in the next few days then maybe.
I saw something on Twitter saying he had been arrested. And that Shoygu has had another (GRU-delivered?) 'heart attack'.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
Ha! Name 1 that went wrong. Just 1 needed.
You were constantly ramping Boris being ousted a few weeks ago. You were even specifying "by next Wednesday" at one point.
It was a Tuesday actually. And I named the day a month out and counted down… right to the very day Putin first fired missiles.
Now Farooq, are you saying if Putin had the one sensible notion this year and returned to Baracks instead, Boris would still be there?
Name another 1.
Time to dust off my 1 January 2022 predictions:
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. 2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. 3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail 4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. 5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. 6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. 7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. 8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail 9. Bitcoin to collapse. 10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
Still heading for 8/10. Well, you never know.
Number 6 might be a pass: Omicron and BA2? Or was Omicron already a thing last year? It all blurs together for me...
Nah, Omi was already prevalent by 1 January and BA.2 is just a sublineage of Omicron.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
I was talking (anecdote alert) to a receptionist from Mansfield "I am not political but I always vote Conservative. I won't be voting for them after the parties. All my friends vote Conservative and they are very angry too. There is no one to vote for"
I know Johnson singlehandedly sunk the Moskva earlier today. Hats off to him, but I am not seeing a Falklands Factor.
Maybe Rwanda will do the trick
My anecdotal experience indicates no such thing, either. FWIW. MoonRabbit isn’t making much sense about a snap election, still less the likelihood of the Tories winning one if they were daft enough to call it.
MoonRabbit's predictions are normally so reliable
We are all prone to flights of fancy from time to time.
Talking of flights of fancy, why is Benedetta in the news now? I saw it months ago.
Soulless and lost, and not in a good way, before you ask.
When he was younger Verhoeven made films with soul, like Kitty Tippel. Now it’s just soft core that passes over you without interesting one cell on your body. Like something by zalman King or borovchic, bodies are just objects not belonging to warm soulful beings.
Are we sure there will be a Wakefield by election?
If there’s a general election in June it would be part of that?
I can't see any way a general election in June could happen, realistically speaking.
I have been in Yorkshire three days and yet to meet someone who thinks removing the Churchillian leader of the West whilst they are at war battling Evil Putin could ever happen. PB.com is hopelessly behind the curve here - just as Maggie was trusted because she was Iron Lady, Boris is completely Transforming into similar iconic image. It doesn’t work on me, but it’s a real thing going on. If Boris runs this June he definitely wins 5 years to play with.
You probably need to meet some outside your bubble then. The vast majority of non Tory voters think it is fine to change, and about a quarter of Tories. No way is there going to be a June election happening, but if it did it would dwarf the 2017 GE for a spectacular own goal.
It is the Queen's Platinum celebrations in June.
No way there is going to a GE messing around with that.
That’s early June. Yet another reason the election gun is fired the following Monday to use the feel good bounce. Like Boris even cares about the queen anyway.
Okay I’ll shut up about it, but when it happens, you know I explained a million reasons why it happened
Possible Last good month of popularity this parliament before it unravels in August and later so the risk plan points to it. They can’t have five years anyway to deliver because of covid and war, they fairly need to ask for an extension to properly deliver on promises. Avoids election after the unravelling of economy, low growth simultaneous inflation. Secures big dog for years (like any other reason matters) Labour not ready. Labour policies not ready. Labour youthful voters will all be on holiday.
What happens if it goes all London Bridge after the election has been called?
London bridge - hide in fridge - mw rhyming slang?
Keep out of the black and in the red There's no election for 2 weeks If her Maj is dead.
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
To be more.pro-Putin than the President of Belarus is quite an achievement.
It looks to me that the value bet at present is Macron greater than 60% at 14 with BFX.
It is odd she has doubled down on the Putin love at this stage of the campaign.
She's had her instructions
It’s a bit odd if her instructions are to throw the election.
I think to throw something you first have to be holding it
The Lithuanian government is reporting that there has been "significant" loss of life on the Moskva. Of the crew of about 485 it seems that only 54 have so far been accounted for.
Any word on Admiral Osipov, Commander of the Black Sea Fleet?
I don't know about Admiral Osipov, but I think most commanders of fleets at war, nowadays command from land, it gives them better overall situational awareness, and less risk of orders from Kremlin being intercepted. however if we dont see prof of life in the next few days then maybe.
I saw something on Twitter saying he had been arrested. And that Shoygu has had another (GRU-delivered?) 'heart attack'.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
Independent: 187 Conservative: 554 Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Gary was tipping it as a possible Tory hold earlier. They weren't annihilated but it's a solid margin.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
Independent: 187 Conservative: 554 Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Gary was tipping it as a possible Tory hold earlier. They weren't annihilated but it's a solid margin.
I think the lad who used to live in Bish had it down as a Labour gain...
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You don’t believe children have a right not to be religiously indoctrinated in state schools ?
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
Independent: 187 Conservative: 554 Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Gary was tipping it as a possible Tory hold earlier. They weren't annihilated but it's a solid margin.
Yes I suppose I err towards caution having got the Northumberland one wrong. I got the High Peak right last week possibly because I have local knowledge of Buxton.
Perhaps Labour is doing a lot better in County Durham now, Labour also gained Ferryhill recently which was another split ward in 2021.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
No,no,no!
Your fixation with far right candidates beating Centrists is troubling me now. A Le Pen victory benefits no one but Le Pen and Putin. Do you seriously consider that if these crazies gain power they are going to relinquish it to Communists?
PARIS — Rejecting a “herd-like conformity” with the Biden administration, Marine Le Pen, the French far-right candidate for the presidency, said Wednesday that France would quit NATO’s integrated military command if she were elected and would seek for the alliance “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia.
NY Times
To be more.pro-Putin than the President of Belarus is quite an achievement.
Belarus's role is interesting - avoiding getting into the war, while still on good terms with Russia. I think there's an element of sanction-busting there - at a trivial lelvel, Pokerstars (which has banned its numerous Russian players) now has vast numbers of players idenrifying as from Belarus, something that was previously as rare as hen's teeth. Lots more identifying as Ukrainian too, but that may be playing for a sympathy edge.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
I think the nationalist v socialist battle in 2027 has a greater chance of happening with Macron winning this time.
It’s still hard to believe that the traditional left and right in France only managed just under 7% combined in the first round .
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
No,no,no!
Your fixation with far right candidates beating Centrists is troubling me now. A Le Pen victory benefits no one but Le Pen and Putin. Do you seriously consider that if these crazies gain power they are going to relinquish it to Communists?
Fascists kill communists.
Well, they start with the communists then move on to everyone else. Anyone on the left voting for fascism would do less harm to the rest of the world just sticking their head in the oven.
Luckily they normally side with the liberals in situations like this, sensibly so.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
Independent: 187 Conservative: 554 Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Gary was tipping it as a possible Tory hold earlier. They weren't annihilated but it's a solid margin.
Yes I suppose I err towards caution having got the Northumberland one wrong. I got the High Peak right last week possibly because I have local knowledge of Buxton.
Perhaps Labour is doing a lot better in County Durham now, Labour also gained Ferryhill recently which was another split ward in 2021.
It’s mid term of the most pathetic government in history. labour should be hitting it out the park.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
I think the nationalist v socialist battle in 2027 has a greater chance of happening with Macron winning this time.
It’s still hard to believe that the traditional left and right in France only managed just under 7% combined in the first round .
Not if a Macron defeat kills off En Marche, a Macron win is the best chance of sustaining it
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
What’s happened in France with the traditional left and right is quite extraordinary. This leaves France one election away from a possible hard left v hard right Presidential battle .
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
There is an argument for Melenchon supporters that the best way to defeat liberal capitalism is to get rid of Macron, even if that means President Le Pen.
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
No,no,no!
Your fixation with far right candidates beating Centrists is troubling me now. A Le Pen victory benefits no one but Le Pen and Putin. Do you seriously consider that if these crazies gain power they are going to relinquish it to Communists?
HYUFD is autocratic far right, so I don't see what the surprise is.
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious. @britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
Cue BJO to tell us why this is all Starmer's fault.
Little noticed by-election in the heart of the red wall tonight: Labour gain in West Auckland ward of County Durham, following sudden death of incumbent Tory councillor.
Independent: 187 Conservative: 554 Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Gary was tipping it as a possible Tory hold earlier. They weren't annihilated but it's a solid margin.
Yes I suppose I err towards caution having got the Northumberland one wrong. I got the High Peak right last week possibly because I have local knowledge of Buxton.
Perhaps Labour is doing a lot better in County Durham now, Labour also gained Ferryhill recently which was another split ward in 2021.
Labour lost the second seat in West Auckland last time because of poor candidate selection. Even without a swing against the Tories it would have been a Labour win with that factor taken out of the equation.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
No, it just enhances their faith. And annoys you as a bonus
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
No, it just enhances their faith. And annoys you as a bonus
And the First Amendment separates Church and State and prevents the State from "enhancing" or otherwise people's faith.
Let people practice their own faith, by their own choice, in their own time. It isn't the State's responsibility and that is enshrined in the First Amendment.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
No, it just enhances their faith. And annoys you as a bonus
Yes, I'll admit it. Teaching lies in schools annoys me.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
No, it just enhances their faith. And annoys you as a bonus
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
They do if the Conservative majority Justices on the Supreme Court now interpret the First Amendment to give them that right
Proselytising to students impairs their education. Witness your obstinacy and your religiosity. Coincidence? I don't think so.
No, it just enhances their faith. And annoys you as a bonus
And the First Amendment separates Church and State and prevents the State from "enhancing" or otherwise people's faith.
Let people practice their own faith, by their own choice, in their own time. It isn't the State's responsibility and that is enshrined in the First Amendment.
The Supreme Court has the final say on how the US Constitution is interpreted.
It now has the largest number of Conservative Justices in decades and will interpret it accordingly, including quite possibly the right to school prayer under the First Amendment
Big night for the Lib Dems. As well as Bisley they won in Maldon and also a town council seat in Hatfield.
Yes, and took control of Surrey Heath, archetypal Blue Wall. With the Labour gain as well, it's a difficult night for the Tories, not really surprisingly.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
Separation of Church and State has been a myth in large parts of the US for some time, as anyone who has spent anytime in the south could tell you.
A jolly good thing too if it enables prayers to return to US public schools, ridiculous the US church and state ban has been so strict as to prohibit it.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
You know nothing about the First Amendment.
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
The First Amendment protects free speech. If the new conservative majority on the Supreme Court wishes to interpret that to include the right to hold prayers in schools so be it
It also protects a separation of Church and State.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
Separation of Church and State has been a myth in large parts of the US for some time, as anyone who has spent anytime in the south could tell you.
Not one anybody british can comment on really, given our Head of State runs the sodding state church and we put bishops in our legislature….
Big night for the Lib Dems. As well as Bisley they won in Maldon and also a town council seat in Hatfield.
Yes, and took control of Surrey Heath, archetypal Blue Wall. With the Labour gain as well, it's a difficult night for the Tories, not really surprisingly.
It is the first unequivocally bad night in local by-elections for the Tories in months. Not a good harbinger for the May elections at all. Something MPs and members really should take note of. The economic issues facing us the government has little control over at the moment. However, the party does have control over the leadership... and the messaging.
Since some on here like Nerys Hughes like to chide, even deride, Labour over by-elections it's worth pointing out how appallingly the Conservatives have just done.
The LibDems scored two MASSIVE victories in Surrey and Essex and Labour gained from the Conservatives in West Auckland (Durham). The Surrey Heath one is Michael Gove's constituency.
Bisley and West End (Surrey Heath) council by-election result:
LDEM: 66.0% (+48.8) CON: 34.0% (-0.8)
No Ind (-31.8), UKIP (-9.3) and Lab (-6.9) as prev. Votes cast: 1,948
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Heybridge West (Maldon) council by-election result:
LDEM: 44.8% (+44.8) CON: 18.4% (-21.2) IND (Burwood): 16.0% (+16.0) IND (Perry): 12.4% (+12.4) LAB: 8.4% (+8.4)
No other Ind(s) (-60.4) as prev. Votes cast: 581
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
West Auckland (Durham) council by-election result:
It's a brilliant piece and wrong to pick out this bit but I did enjoy it:
'Rather, it is the symbolism, the lack of judgment, the sense of entitlement, and the denial that make these episodes so damning. They also form part of a steady drip feed of corrosive negativity which almost invariably ends up overwhelming all governments of any longevity.
Mr Johnson likes to think of himself as an entirely new political force in the land, yet he is in fact just the tail-end Charlie of 12 years of Conservative-led government, more John Major with added entertainment value than Margaret Thatcher. But for the combination of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, he wouldn’t be there in the first place, and certainly wouldn’t have enjoyed the majority he now commands.'
Comments
The morale impact is substantial. If Russia had been able to appear in complete control of the Black Sea then this would create a feeling of superiority that would make victory on land seem like an inevitability, a matter only of time. But now this invulnerability and superiority is dispelled. The prospect of defeat looms large.
There were also minor Russian naval victories in the Baltic (with British support) in 1915, and in the Black Sea in 1916.
'Very clear massive #LabourGain in West Auckland, Durham County Council by-election tonight. Results not out yet, but it's obvious.
@britaineIects
Congratulations to Labour's George Smith.'
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. Fail
4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. Fail
9. Bitcoin to collapse.
10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
Still heading for 8/10. Well, you never know.
On #6, I'd say we've had one (Omicron) though I gather there was technically two variants of that (BA1 and BA2) so you could claim victory there.
#4 is really bold. You could get double digit odds on that I think.
If I could get evens on each one I'd back #1, #2, and #7. Definitely bet against #4 and #5, others are close calls (haven't really looked up #10).
If the Ukraine airforce had more aircraft it would make quite a big difference.
Many people (probably those who themselves ignored lockdown rules) are comfortable with Johnson's FPNs. Most of us who played with a straight bat (including Conservative voters) are very vexed by the parties.
As to Churchillian Johnson and his Falklands Factor, despite Conservative Party spinning, it isn't happening.
Where I do agree with you is an early election in June is Johnson's best chance of a (much reduced- but not guaranteed) win.
In terms of impact on the war, two significant potential impacts:
1. It probably means that any marine landing to attack Odesa is now removed from the playbook entirely
2. Moscva played a huge role in protecting the Black Sea fleet from aerial threats, and so the fleet will probably move much further away from the Ukrainian coastline now, and Russia's air superiority over the Black Sea and Crimea will have been diminished. Whether this is to a game-changing level is debatable.
And here’s what a cat looks like with the cream.
I don't think Macron will get over 60% but I do think its possible and the chance are bigger that 1 in 14 making it the value bet IMO
Some people on here have a very tenuous grip on reality. If Putin and his mouthpieces say it was stormy, it was stormy. If Putin says the ship did not sink, it did not sink. All else is fake news.
Labour 956 (56%)
Tory 554 (33%)
Indi 187 (11%)
#LabourGain
Some Fillon voters also went to Zemmour or Le Pen and some Socialist voters went for Melenchon. The centre right and centre left in France were squeezed from both ends
It struck the iceberg at 11:40pm ship's time on the 14th April according to wiki.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/04/how-republicans-recast-christian-indoctrination-as-religious-freedom.html
Titanic
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Wiktionary:Main_Page
Independent: 187
Conservative: 554
Labour: 956
Doesn’t bode well for Wakefield by-election
Today, school officials who coerce students into prayer go on the offensive, claiming that any attempt to halt their efforts at religious coercion is actually persecution of their religious beliefs. Supervisors, lawmakers, and judges who attempt to shield children from being indoctrinated are recast as anti-Christian bigots.
I can believe that works.
Excellent news on Good Friday eve
Maryland man with 124 snakes in his home died of a snake bite, officials say
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/04/14/maryland-man-124-snake-dies-bite/7312105001/
Coming days: dolour, Cold War, rash, maelstrom..
Soulless and lost, and not in a good way, before you ask.
When he was younger Verhoeven made films with soul, like Kitty Tippel. Now it’s just soft core that passes over you without interesting one cell on your body. Like something by zalman King or borovchic, bodies are just objects not belonging to warm soulful beings.
Bisley & West End By-Election 2022 update
Turnout figure confirmed:
Bisley & West End 1956 (28.3%)
#YourVoteMatters
LREM has really become a vehicle for Macron alone , with the term limits who takes up that mantle . Will LREM even survive post the Macron era if he does get over the line this time .
Clearly there is an appetite in France for a more centrist party or candidate but the difficulty is who can take over that post Macron .
That then sets up a Nationalist v Socialist, Le Pen v Melenchon battle next time.
A similar argument saw a few Sanders supporters stay home or even vote for Trump in 2016. Here too we even arguably had our Nationalist v Socialist election already in 2019 with Boris v Corbyn
Still, even a smirking ghoul deserves a second chance, right?
Perhaps Labour is doing a lot better in County Durham now, Labour also gained Ferryhill recently which was another split ward in 2021.
Your fixation with far right candidates beating Centrists is troubling me now. A Le Pen victory benefits no one but Le Pen and Putin. Do you seriously consider that if these crazies gain power they are going to relinquish it to Communists?
It’s still hard to believe that the traditional left and right in France only managed just under 7% combined in the first round .
But that joins plenty of other things you know nothing about.
If people want to pray they should be free to do so, or not do so, in their own time at their own choice. Not indoctrinated against their wishes.
Well, they start with the communists then move on to everyone else. Anyone on the left voting for fascism would do less harm to the rest of the world just sticking their head in the oven.
Luckily they normally side with the liberals in situations like this, sensibly so.
If people want to speak religiously on their own time they have the absolute freedom to do so guaranteed by the first amendment. What they don't have the right is to do so while agents of the state, which schools operating in loco parentis are.
@ALDC
@LibDems
🔶
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQVLnj6XEAcgTyw?format=jpg&name=medium
IND: 69.5% (+69.5)
CON: 15.3% (-0.9)
LDEM: 15.3% (+2.5)
No other Ind(s) (-65.9) and Lab (-5.1) as prev.
Votes cast: 498
Independent GAIN from Independent.
Let people practice their own faith, by their own choice, in their own time. It isn't the State's responsibility and that is enshrined in the First Amendment.
It now has the largest number of Conservative Justices in decades and will interpret it accordingly, including quite possibly the right to school prayer under the First Amendment
Lashing out in a defiant display might not be the best use of their resources, however.
The LibDems scored two MASSIVE victories in Surrey and Essex and Labour gained from the Conservatives in West Auckland (Durham). The Surrey Heath one is Michael Gove's constituency.
Bisley and West End (Surrey Heath) council by-election result:
LDEM: 66.0% (+48.8)
CON: 34.0% (-0.8)
No Ind (-31.8), UKIP (-9.3) and Lab (-6.9) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,948
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Heybridge West (Maldon) council by-election result:
LDEM: 44.8% (+44.8)
CON: 18.4% (-21.2)
IND (Burwood): 16.0% (+16.0)
IND (Perry): 12.4% (+12.4)
LAB: 8.4% (+8.4)
No other Ind(s) (-60.4) as prev.
Votes cast: 581
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent.
West Auckland (Durham) council by-election result:
LAB: 56.3% (+12.2)
CON: 32.6% (-10.2)
IND: 11.0% (+11.0)
No other Ind (-13.0) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,697
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
The LibDems are going to make significant in-roads in the south, especially south west London and Surrey.
And the Red Wall is crumbling back to Labour.
"The looming cost of living crisis spells political doom for Johnson"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/14/looming-cost-living-crisis-spells-political-doom-johnson/
It's a brilliant piece and wrong to pick out this bit but I did enjoy it:
'Rather, it is the symbolism, the lack of judgment, the sense of entitlement, and the denial that make these episodes so damning. They also form part of a steady drip feed of corrosive negativity which almost invariably ends up overwhelming all governments of any longevity.
Mr Johnson likes to think of himself as an entirely new political force in the land, yet he is in fact just the tail-end Charlie of 12 years of Conservative-led government, more John Major with added entertainment value than Margaret Thatcher. But for the combination of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, he wouldn’t be there in the first place, and certainly wouldn’t have enjoyed the majority he now commands.'