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How the papers are Johnson and Sunak’s lockdown fines – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Those of you pretending that this will not be 1997 all over again are right.

    It's worse.

    https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-effects-of-russias-war-push-uk-inflation-to-fresh-30-year-high-of-7-12588628

    Then the economy was in great shape. This time it's tanking.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154

    Macron refuses to call Russian atrocities 'genocide.'

    French President Emmanuel Macron said: “I would be careful with such terms today because these two peoples (Russians and Ukrainians) are brothers.”


    https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1514174397577367555

    What a twat. Does that mean that German Jews who were murdered in a genocide by their “German brothers” (so even more brotherly than Ukrainians/Russians as being, you know, the same nationality) weren’t actually victims of genocide?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kjh said:

    They should be lambasted for doing so.
    Wedder they like it or not, yowe are sure right.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    MaxPB said:

    I'd hand my degree back to Cardiff.
    Agreed. Though on the other hand I’d back my old Uni’s admin office to be as efficient as it was when I was there, and the SLC to be as efficient as it was when I paid the loan off, and therefore that I wouldn’t ever be contacted about the tax.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    algarkirk said:

    The marginal real tax rate for a middling, student loan laden professional (with or without 8 small starving children and high maintenance spouses to feed) is:

    20% IT
    13.25% NI
    9% Loan

    = 42.25%

    While the working pensioner's marginal rate is 20%.

    The entire thing is a scam designed to keep the headline rate for lazy journalists at 20% (now promised to go down to 19%, gosh!) while punishing aspirational people from less well off backgrounds who stay in their country and work, and who had to max out their loans to survive.

    Meritocracy it is not.

    Most students don't vote Tory. QED
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    No one will ‘bring up the pandemic’. It is so ghastly and bleak we will erase it from the collective memory ASAFP

    What utter, complete, rubbish.

    You are becoming the Dennis Healey of pb.com: whatever you say, we can be sure that the diametric opposite is true.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    boulay said:

    What a twat. Does that mean that German Jews who were murdered in a genocide by their “German brothers” (so even more brotherly than Ukrainians/Russians as being, you know, the same nationality) weren’t actually victims of genocide?
    The guy is a moron. France is faced with the same choice we were in 2019. Macron might be shit but the alternative is a disaster.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    What a twat. Does that mean that German Jews who were murdered in a genocide by their “German brothers” (so even more brotherly than Ukrainians/Russians as being, you know, the same nationality) weren’t actually victims of genocide?
    The Hutu and Tutsi lived in the same country...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,451
    As I said down thread, student fees / loans / debt, the key problems which are never addressed, the rip off of accommodation means everybody racks up these massive loans (not just the mega piss heads when most of us were at uni). And 50% of kids going to uni full time.

    Ultimately we all pay for this as vast amount of this debt is going to be written off.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    As I said down thread, student fees / loans / debt, the key problems which are never addressed, the rip off of accommodation means everybody racks up these massive loans (not just the mega piss heads when most of us were at uni). And 50% of kids going to uni full time.

    Ultimately we all pay for this as vast amount of this debt is going to be written off.

    And I suspect Labour's calculation was that voters would have forgotten who to blame as the first write-offs filter through in ~2034.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559
    edited April 2022

    There's no way I could have got a teaching qualification without being a graduate. Luckily I went to University in the late 70s when they paid you to go.
    I don't think that, from about WWI onward one could be a teacher with some formal qualification. One of my aunts, though was a 'pupil teacher' in a school in 1911.
    My father, and his brother and sister did two year courses before WWII, although my aunt did a one year top up in the early 50's.
    And finally my wife did a two year course at the end of the 50's in a specific Teacher Training College.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,078
    And now @dwnews reporting Sweden and Finland to hold joint presser #nato https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1514153162910822400
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    The Hutu and Tutsi lived in the same country...
    And the Armenia genocide - I’m assuming Macron doesn’t think that was genocide, right as they were all part of the same empire, not even separate countries/languages etc so clearly brothers?

    https://amp.france24.com/en/20190424-france-national-commemoration-armenian-genocide
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    What utter, complete, rubbish.

    He does actually make an interesting suggestion, that is worth considering. A couple of years agp he was discussing on PB with some of us the apparent absence from collective memory of the Spanish [sic] Flu of 1917-20-ish. Lots of books about the Great War, for instance, both history, memoirs and fiction; precious few about the flu unless one was a science and medical history nerd like me. There are/were various suggestions as to the reasons, one possibility being that it was sort of blurred into the huge, but comparable, death toll from the war itself (and ofr course it interacted with the war anyway, being generated and spread by the mass movements, from the US initially).

    Another is that it was seen as simply a worse than usual winter flu year from the individual point of view and there was not a lot that could be done - I suppose it blurred into the wider death toll from poverty and disease pre-antobiotics and modern vaccines. This to some extent may explain the also rather thin collective memory of the bad flu epidemic in, was it 1968?, which we were also discussing a year or two back. There's at least one interestiong historical article in a medical or history of medicine journal available out there on the internet.

    Edit: but that is on a timescale of decades, however.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,373
    edited April 2022

    Re: The Daily Mail's headline.

    Can we now read it as a fact that the Mail consider the replacement of Chamberlain with Churchill in WWII to be a stupid mistake?

    If not, why not? I understand there was a bloody war on at the time, and one somewhat closer to home and with a large number of British troops already in action.

    Surely the difference is that Chamberlain was failing in WWII while Zelenskyy and all concerned seem to be saying that Boris is doing a very good job with respect to Ukraine.

    Quite a difference there. If Chamberlain was winning WWII and was doing an excellent job with the war, would he have been defeated?

    I still think Boris should go because for me as a point of principle lawmakers can't be lawbreakers but that's a really dodgy comparison.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,134
    moonshine said:

    Yes NATO’s greatest strength is it’s deterrent value. Get the Finns and Swedes through the door asap. As for Ireland, their studied “neutrality” looks evermore unprincipled and self serving as the years go by.

    Hopefully the same lesson is being learned in the Pacific as well. Aukus / Jaukus a good start but doesn’t go far enough for me.

    As for Russia, not at all clear we will have a moment of reckoning whereby the mass of Russian public opinion has that crucial moment of introspection over the nation’s actions. It’s going to be a puss filled boil on the side of Europe’s face for a good long while sadly.
    Ireland does not really matter. If Ireland joined Nato it would contribute about three soldiers, not be a buffer between us and Russia, but allow America to move bases out of Britain and the continent to Ireland.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Carnyx said:



    Edit: but that is on a timescale of decades, however.
    Well surely that's the point? There is no way that the covid pandemic is going to erased from collective memory two years from now. It's visceral, raw. It's nonsense to think otherwise. Or, actually, it's more about Leon's own projected desire to move on from it. Which is fair enough but not the same thing.

    And by the way, I suspect that the Spanish flu was subsequently treated that way because of two even more traumatic events which wiped over it. I know I know, deaths exceeded, but for sheer bloody trauma both world wars were unparalleled.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,246

    One huge mistake I think the Cameron government made when reforming (i.e. increasing) uni fees is that some subjects genuinely cost a lot of money to put on in particular science and medicine, while also being some of the most crucial to our economy (especially going forward). Them saying to unis you charge up to a cap there will be a market has totally failed, every uni just charges basically the max.

    What has happened is a lot of management in unis have been enriched by this change.

    What I think we actually wanted is the government to subsidise some courses to ensure they continue to teach them e.g. I believe significant number of unis don't offer / stopped Chemistry because it costs about £15k a year to run, while ensuring unis don't also just rip off the kids charging a lot of money for things that are effectively 30 chairs and a talking head.

    There is no incentive to think about costs, you just charge the max for every course at every uni and incentive never to run ones that cost a lot of money.

    A change I would like to see is make university exams open to all, for a fee related to exam costs only, similar to A Levels and GCSEs.

    Then lets see how much cheaper and faster other suppliers can teach the same content. I bet plenty of 3 year degrees can be taught in 6 months full time.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Joint live press conference right now: Swedish and Finnish prime ministers, in Stockholm. In English.

    Got the feeling big news coming up!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,134
    edited April 2022

    One huge mistake I think the Cameron government made when reforming (i.e. increasing) uni fees is that some subjects genuinely cost a lot of money to put on in particular science and medicine, while also being some of the most crucial to our economy (especially going forward). Them saying to unis you charge up to a cap there will be a market has totally failed, every uni just charges basically the max.

    What has happened is a lot of management in unis have been enriched by this change.

    What I think we actually wanted is the government to subsidise some courses to ensure they continue to teach them e.g. I believe significant number of unis don't offer / stopped Chemistry because it costs about £15k a year to run, while ensuring unis don't also just rip off the kids charging a lot of money for things that are effectively 30 chairs and a talking head.

    There is no incentive to think about costs, you just charge the max for every course at every uni and incentive never to run ones that cost a lot of money.

    True, though the other thing it has done is allow former b-tier institutions to create centres of excellence. It's not just Cambridge and Hull any more. The University of Dunny-on-the-Wold can hire a top class researcher in computing or textiles or art history.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,489

    Surely the difference is that Chamberlain was failing in WWII while Zelenskyy and all concerned seem to be saying that Boris is doing a very good job with respect to Ukraine.

    Quite a difference there. If Chamberlain was winning WWII and was doing an excellent job with the war, would he have been defeated?

    I still think Boris should go because for me as a point of principle lawmakers can't be lawbreakers but that's a really dodgy comparison.
    There are a host of tories who would be better concerning Ukraine, Wallace, tugendhat, ellwood, Hunt even. Not sure whether Raab knows where Ukraine is though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,451
    edited April 2022
    Also the effect of increasing ability student loans, all it has done is increase the amount charged for student accommodation. £150-200 a week for room in towns where a mortgage on a whole house is that is just criminal, and this is often done under the guise of well you get an ensuite now or have better communal facilities e.g. a nice room with big telly, sky, pool table....the cost of that is peanuts compared to the increase they charge.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Biden uses G word

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/joe-biden-accuses-vladimir-putin-of-committing-genocide-in-ukraine

    Important because

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.

    ...

    Article VIII

    Any Contracting Party may call upon the competent organs of the United Nations to take
    such action under the Charter of the United Nations as they consider appropriate for the
    prevention and suppression of acts of genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in
    article III.

    Genocide Convention 1948

    ...

    Let's not forget that the French effectively armed and trained the guilty party in Rwanda 1994.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Heathener said:

    What utter, complete, rubbish.

    You are becoming the Dennis Healey of pb.com: whatever you say, we can be sure that the diametric opposite is true.
    You certainly have a tendency to get very agitated when people disagree with you. Perhaps you are an Oracle? Imbued with foresight that the rest of us can't access?

    Perhaps you should take your own advice and debate issues sensibly.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,489

    There are a host of tories who would be better concerning Ukraine, Wallace, tugendhat, ellwood, Hunt even. Not sure whether Raab knows where Ukraine is though.
    I think Zelenskyy thinks Boris is doing well because they are both entertaining
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,306

    There are a host of tories who would be better concerning Ukraine, Wallace, tugendhat, ellwood, Hunt even. Not sure whether Raab knows where Ukraine is though.
    A revivified Chamberlain might be an improvement..
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    You certainly have a tendency to get very agitated when people disagree with you. Perhaps you are an Oracle? Imbued with foresight that the rest of us can't access?

    Perhaps you should take your own advice and debate issues sensibly.
    I refer the gentleman to my answer below
  • There are a host of tories who would be better concerning Ukraine, Wallace, tugendhat, ellwood, Hunt even. Not sure whether Raab knows where Ukraine is though.
    That seems to be your bias showing, Zelenskyy doesn't seem to agree.

    Putin does seem to have moved the agenda on and Ukraine saying over the weekend that the UK is Ukraine's best ally in this conflict seems to have secured Johnson for the time being at least.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559
    boulay said:

    And the Armenia genocide - I’m assuming Macron doesn’t think that was genocide, right as they were all part of the same empire, not even separate countries/languages etc so clearly brothers?

    https://amp.france24.com/en/20190424-france-national-commemoration-armenian-genocide
    I'm reading a rather odd book..... sort of stream of consciousness sometimes...... "Days without End' by Sebastian Barry, which includes descriptions of what might well be considered genocide by the European settlers on the original inhabitants of what we now call the USA.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon, I think you have a lot of great qualities and you clearly write well albeit with a degree of hyperbole. You're often amusing, interesting and naughty in equal measures.

    But as a bell-weather for this nation? Having your finger on the country's pulse? No no no.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    Those of you pretending that this will not be 1997 all over again are right.

    It's worse.

    https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-effects-of-russias-war-push-uk-inflation-to-fresh-30-year-high-of-7-12588628

    Then the economy was in great shape. This time it's tanking.

    Why do you think the economy is tanking? We live in a country with full employment, something that has not happened for 60 years.. From my personal knowledge of the Construction Industry this is going a be another extremely busy year with Councils finally back at work trying to catch up on all the projects they didn't do over the last 2 years.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Heathener said:

    Leon, I think you have a lot of great qualities and you clearly write well albeit with a degree of hyperbole. You're often amusing, interesting and naughty in equal measures.

    But as a bell-weather for this nation? Having your finger on the country's pulse? No no no.

    Bell-wether on a point of PB pedantry ... leader of the sheep flock ...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    There are a host of tories who would be better concerning Ukraine, Wallace, tugendhat, ellwood, Hunt even. Not sure whether Raab knows where Ukraine is though.
    You are projecting here. Ellwood for example has been gung ho about NATO bombing Russian territory. Sometimes the sensible thing to do is admit when a politician you don’t like handles something well.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    Well surely that's the point? There is no way that the covid pandemic is going to erased from collective memory two years from now. It's visceral, raw. It's nonsense to think otherwise. Or, actually, it's more about Leon's own projected desire to move on from it. Which is fair enough but not the same thing.

    And by the way, I suspect that the Spanish flu was subsequently treated that way because of two even more traumatic events which wiped over it. I know I know, deaths exceeded, but for sheer bloody trauma both world wars were unparalleled.
    Wrong, nothing more dull than ancient medical history (I speak as a professional historian of ancient medicine). 9 years ago I had really serious, odds-slightly-against-survival, surgery. It seemed a big deal at the time, a doctor asked me a couple of weeks ago what the scars were and it took me a moment or two to remember.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,996
    Scott_xP said:

    Sweden now applying for nato membership. Finland could follow suit. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine counterproductive. President Putin wants to reduce size of alliance but will likely do opposite ..
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1514180138212155398

    In the logic of STW this is exactly the sort of thing which causes Russia to invade large countries and murder babies in their cots. Expect mass demos outside the aggressive Swede's embassy

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,611

    Also the effect of increasing ability student loans, all it has done is increase the amount charged for student accommodation. £150-200 a week for room in towns where a mortgage on a whole house is that is just criminal, and this is often done under the guise of well you get an ensuite now or have better communal facilities e.g. a nice room with big telly, sky, pool table....the cost of that is peanuts compared to the increase they charge.

    Many of these being built by financial institutions and pension funds as they have a long term income stream that is decent and pretty much guaranteed.

    It is shabby what all govts from 1997 to the current day have done with respect to further education and the younger generation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559

    A change I would like to see is make university exams open to all, for a fee related to exam costs only, similar to A Levels and GCSEs.

    Then lets see how much cheaper and faster other suppliers can teach the same content. I bet plenty of 3 year degrees can be taught in 6 months full time.
    Compare and contrast the University of Buckingham.

    in 1850 or so my 3x Gt Grandfather obtained an MD from St Andrews University by simply turning up at the exam room, paying the fee and passing the exam. He was living in London at the time, didn't have to do any study in Scotland.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    @Parody_PM
    ·
    26m
    Grant Shapps is right, you have to judge me in the round. So don’t forget the thousands of unnecessary Covid deaths, illegally proroguing Parliament, the highest taxes since the 1950s, the empty shelves, my disastrous Brexit deal, PPE cronyism, £37bn wasted on test and trace
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    From my personal knowledge of the Construction Industry t
    I thought you were a nurse?

    If you have rampant inflation and a cost of living squeeze the like of which we haven't seen for 30 years or more, don't expect full employment to continue as the norm for ever and a day.

    But I don't think anyway that people will go to the ballot box thinking, 'it has cost me £50 to get here and my family haven't got enough to eat each month let alone take a holiday or any of the former things we enjoyed ... but it's okay because I've got my job.'

    Back in the day inflation was the litmus paper for everything else. It was what Margaret Thatcher based her entire economic policy around: getting down the PSBR to reduce inflation. We may have moved on from that but only because until now we have taken low inflation as a given.

    High inflation is a curse on everyone: the whole population is affected by it.
  • Why do you think the economy is tanking? We live in a country with full employment, something that has not happened for 60 years.. From my personal knowledge of the Construction Industry this is going a be another extremely busy year with Councils finally back at work trying to catch up on all the projects they didn't do over the last 2 years.
    Inflation is happening because the country and the world is booming, not crashing.

    The Government are screwing that up by raising taxes though.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Taz said:

    Many of these being built by financial institutions and pension funds as they have a long term income stream that is decent and pretty much guaranteed.

    It is shabby what all govts from 1997 to the current day have done with respect to further education and the younger generation.
    It has certainly encouraged the building of student accomoodation, Im sure most University Cities are now full of new student flats
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,306
    boulay said:

    And the Armenia genocide - I’m assuming Macron doesn’t think that was genocide, right as they were all part of the same empire, not even separate countries/languages etc so clearly brothers?

    https://amp.france24.com/en/20190424-france-national-commemoration-armenian-genocide
    Point of PB pedantry, Armenian was/is very much a separate language.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,337

    As I said down thread, student fees / loans / debt, the key problems which are never addressed, the rip off of accommodation means everybody racks up these massive loans (not just the mega piss heads when most of us were at uni). And 50% of kids going to uni full time.

    Ultimately we all pay for this as vast amount of this debt is going to be written off.

    The write offs are effectively part of the design, though- it's part of the mechanism to make it work like a tax without being a tax. As long as people at the upper end of the graduate income scale pay more and those at the lower end pay less, it all comes out in the wash.

    But yes, the expansion of university teaching without thinking much about accommodation causes lots of problems. In a rational free market world, lots more student flats would get built and their rents wouldn't go through the roof.

    But we don't build enough of anything, anywhere.

    I'm sure there are problems in Britain that don't spiral back to "build more houses and flats at fairly attractive highish density even if that rules out multiple parking spaces per dwelling", but I don't know what they are.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,246

    Compare and contrast the University of Buckingham.

    in 1850 or so my 3x Gt Grandfather obtained an MD from St Andrews University by simply turning up at the exam room, paying the fee and passing the exam. He was living in London at the time, didn't have to do any study in Scotland.
    That is how it should be. If you know enough, you pass.

    This is one free market idea that never seems to be pushed by the right. Perhaps because they dont want some oiks who happen to be bright or work hard, but don't have the connections to get into Oxbridge to outperform them in exams.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,134
    IshmaelZ said:

    Wrong, nothing more dull than ancient medical history (I speak as a professional historian of ancient medicine). 9 years ago I had really serious, odds-slightly-against-survival, surgery. It seemed a big deal at the time, a doctor asked me a couple of weeks ago what the scars were and it took me a moment or two to remember.
    Childbirth is said to be very painful yet women keep having babies.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154

    Point of PB pedantry, Armenian was/is very much a separate language.
    As are Ukrainian and Russian so how Macron defines Ukrainians and Russians as brothers and therefore is reluctant to call it genocide is odd to be generous.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Inflation is happening because the country and the world is booming, not crashing.

    .
    Erm, I don't believe that's exactly right.

    A squeeze on supply pushes up prices: basic economics of supply and demand. Take energy as an example, the rise in raw prices is nothing to do with a boom.

    Likewise, supply problems partly as a result of Brexit mean that the supply squeeze pushes up prices.

    Even schoolgirl economics taught me that too many people chasing too few goods = inflation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,522
    IshmaelZ said:

    Biden uses G word

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/joe-biden-accuses-vladimir-putin-of-committing-genocide-in-ukraine

    Important because

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.

    ...

    Article VIII

    Any Contracting Party may call upon the competent organs of the United Nations to take
    such action under the Charter of the United Nations as they consider appropriate for the
    prevention and suppression of acts of genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in
    article III.

    Genocide Convention 1948

    ...

    Let's not forget that the French effectively armed and trained the guilty party in Rwanda 1994.

    Does use of a machete take much training?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Heathener said:

    Erm, I don't believe that's exactly right.

    A squeeze on supply pushes up prices: basic economics of supply and demand. Take energy as an example, the rise in raw prices is nothing to do with a boom.

    Likewise, supply problems partly as a result of Brexit mean that the supply squeeze pushes up prices.

    Even schoolgirl economics taught me that too many people chasing too few goods = inflation.
    Lol that you are still using Brexit as the stick for causing global inflation. Troll.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Herregud!

    Källor till Svenska Dagbladet uppger att statsminister Magdalena Anderssons mål är att Sverige går med i Nato i juni i år.

    https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/uppgift-s-kallar-till-nato-mote

    Looks like we are about to see an historic shift in the tectonic plates of Northern Europe.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085


    @Parody_PM
    ·
    26m
    Grant Shapps is right, you have to judge me in the round. So don’t forget the thousands of unnecessary Covid deaths, illegally proroguing Parliament, the highest taxes since the 1950s, the empty shelves, my disastrous Brexit deal, PPE cronyism, £37bn wasted on test and trace

    Well said and the list could go on and on and on and on!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,373
    edited April 2022
    Heathener said:

    Erm, I don't believe that's exactly right.

    A squeeze on supply pushes up prices: basic economics of supply and demand. Take energy as an example, the rise in raw prices is nothing to do with a boom.

    Likewise, supply problems partly as a result of Brexit mean that the supply squeeze pushes up prices.

    Even schoolgirl economics taught me that too many people chasing too few goods = inflation.
    America has over 8% inflation because ... Brexit.

    You're cream crackers 24/7 aren't you?

    Yes too many people chasing goods = inflation and the too many people is because the world economy is overheating not because of supply problems partly [or even at all] as a result of Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559
    boulay said:

    As are Ukrainian and Russian so how Macron defines Ukrainians and Russians as brothers and therefore is reluctant to call it genocide is odd to be generous.

    AIUI Ukrainian and Russian are not 'very much a separate language'. I believe that when spoken speakers of one can understand the other. However the written language is more different. How and why I don't know.

    However, I'm sure someone here does!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    boulay said:

    As are Ukrainian and Russian so how Macron defines Ukrainians and Russians as brothers and therefore is reluctant to call it genocide is odd to be generous.
    It's also a specific element of Kremlin propaganda to describe Ukraine as a "brotherly nation" to justify why they cannot allow it to be seduced by the West.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:
    Ross played an absolute blinder a few months ago, when he managed to get unanimity in his parliamentary group for the Johnson resignation call.

    … then blew it all in a few short seconds when he did one of the most humiliating u-turns in modern Scottish political history.

    He’s a dead duck.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,246

    That is how it should be. If you know enough, you pass.

    This is one free market idea that never seems to be pushed by the right. Perhaps because they dont want some oiks who happen to be bright or work hard, but don't have the connections to get into Oxbridge to outperform them in exams.
    Depends on the course though. Mine was physics (four years combined masters) and a fair chunk of the assessment (over half for the masters year) was on lab work, not exams. That made sense, really, as the degree was about actually being able to do the stuff, not just know the answers or being able to work out the maths. You could have a theoretical physics degree completely assessed by exams, I guess.

    Actually, the >50% final year 'lab' assessment was, for my project, analysis of pre-collected data from a NASA probe, but even that can only really be tested by being given some data and some weeks to develop analysis of it, not really something you can truly assess in an exam. The skills I developed in that project and earlire labs have been more useful for my future career (and also for my lab-partner who is not in academia) than the stuff we were tested on in the exams.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085


    You're cream crackers 24/7 aren't you?

    .
    Why oh why do you feel the need to go Ad Hominem? Pack it in.

    There are major supply problems at the moment, including in China. The equilibrium between supply and demand has been broken a lot of it (of course) because of covid.

    Take the second hand car market. Prices have rocketed: there simply aren't enough vehicles to go around, partly because of the problem of key components in the supply chains in the new car market.

    That's not 'cream crackers' it's what all economic analysts are saying. Just drop the Ad hominen guff. Ta.
  • AIUI Ukrainian and Russian are not 'very much a separate language'. I believe that when spoken speakers of one can understand the other. However the written language is more different. How and why I don't know.

    However, I'm sure someone here does!
    Its the same with many languages. German, Dutch and Afrikaans speakers can kind-of understand much of what each other say even without speaking the other language. Languages have evolved over time and some of those have become different languages over time but they're related to each other.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    I think Zelenskyy thinks Boris is doing well because they are both entertaining
    International recognition factor is a plus (doesn't counter his negative qualities!).
  • Morning all! Had a quiet night in Argelès last night. The weather was awful which left me rather less keen to explore than usual. I did make it to my new favourite brewery just in time for a very quick tour and tasting before they closed, then had a very tasty but not very French pizza with a few glasses of wine at the nearest restaurant to my hotel.

    I think Argelès might be the camping capital of France; there were at least five campsites in the town itself, and I passed another eight or nine in the first couple of miles on my way out of the place this morning. One of them, called L’Hippocampe did almost get me thinking..

    I’m now in St Cyprien (having my first, and soon second, beer) about halfway to Perpignan where I’ve decided to stay for two nights. I’ve booked an apartment rather than a hotel, with a washing machine so I can get all my clothes clean again - even my jeans!

    There’s quite a lot to see in Perpignan and it’s pretty cheap to stay there. Also, on Good Friday they have some crazy ancient procession through the centre (pic from wiki below). I’m looking forward to seeing the train station, which Dali called the centre of the universe - and where I intend to stop walking, at least for a while!


  • Heathener said:

    Why oh why do you feel the need to go Ad Hominem? Pack it in.

    There are major supply problems at the moment, including in China. The equilibrium between supply and demand has been broken a lot of it (of course) because of covid.

    Take the second hand car market. Prices have rocketed: there simply aren't enough vehicles to go around, partly because of the problem of key components in the supply chains in the new car market.

    That's not 'cream crackers' it's what all economic analysts are saying. Just drop the Ad hominen guff. Ta.
    The cream crackers reference was for blaming Brexit. Don't troll and I won't call you out for it.

    Global inflation is because the economy is rebounding and growing fast not because it is crashing.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Heathener said:

    I thought you were a nurse?

    If you have rampant inflation and a cost of living squeeze the like of which we haven't seen for 30 years or more, don't expect full employment to continue as the norm for ever and a day.

    But I don't think anyway that people will go to the ballot box thinking, 'it has cost me £50 to get here and my family haven't got enough to eat each month let alone take a holiday or any of the former things we enjoyed ... but it's okay because I've got my job.'

    Back in the day inflation was the litmus paper for everything else. It was what Margaret Thatcher based her entire economic policy around: getting down the PSBR to reduce inflation. We may have moved on from that but only because until now we have taken low inflation as a given.

    High inflation is a curse on everyone: the whole population is affected by it.
    My wife and daughter are nurses, I work in the M & E sector.

    Inflation is a pain but it is worldwide inflation which the UK Government can do little about and it will pass.

    The fact remains that the economy is still in good shape and people have money to spend as highlighted yesterday by Easy Jet reporting very high levels of bookings for the Summer.

    Pubs and restuatants round here seem very busy and its impossible to get a taxi as they are booked all the time.

    As someone who left school in the early 80's when there were no jobs for anyone, this does not feel like an economy that is tanking
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Supply and demand BR

    https://www.autotrader.co.uk/content/news/new-car-delays-microchip-shortage

    Last autumn: "Second-hand car prices surge amid new car shortage"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58993851

    Supply and demand. Basic economics. There's a squeeze at the moment for a constellation of reasons and it pushes up prices.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Same thing, of course, in the UK housing market. They are not making enough houses, and God stopped making land, so there are too many people chasing too few properties. Ergo prices rise.

    It's the most fundamental law of economics.

    Have a good rest of the day everyone :)

    xx
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194

    Inflation is happening because the country and the world is booming, not crashing.

    The Government are screwing that up by raising taxes though.
    Do you really think the UK economy is booming?

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,134

    Its the same with many languages. German, Dutch and Afrikaans speakers can kind-of understand much of what each other say even without speaking the other language. Languages have evolved over time and some of those have become different languages over time but they're related to each other.
    Yes, and I, for instance, can understand American, and have been watching a lot of House clips on Youtube, though recent recommendations have included House dubbed into German, presumably because there are many Germans watching House clips in both languages.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559

    Its the same with many languages. German, Dutch and Afrikaans speakers can kind-of understand much of what each other say even without speaking the other language. Languages have evolved over time and some of those have become different languages over time but they're related to each other.
    Noted. I think that Dutch is sometimes comprehensible in English if one reads it slowly. I've often wondered what would have happened if England had not united and (say) Northumbria had evolved into a separate state. Would it be even more difficult, linguistically, for a Southerner to move to Geordie or Mackem territory than it is now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194

    It's also a specific element of Kremlin propaganda to describe Ukraine as a "brotherly nation" to justify why they cannot allow it to be seduced by the West.
    Though being a brotherly nation does rather imply mass rape and murder are to be deplored, whether genocide or not.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    edited April 2022

    I'd like to think the people of Epping will be asking themselves a more pertinent question: who will empty my dustbins next week? Surely the answer there, as almost everywhere, would be the LibDems?
    Get your recycling / composting right and that can probably be once a fortnight or less frequently :smile: .

    I was quite surprised that I cut my already modest recycling by 75%. I have since rather fallen off that particular wagon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,992
    IshmaelZ said:

    Biden uses G word

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/joe-biden-accuses-vladimir-putin-of-committing-genocide-in-ukraine

    Important because

    Article I

    The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in
    time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to
    punish.

    ...

    Article VIII

    Any Contracting Party may call upon the competent organs of the United Nations to take
    such action under the Charter of the United Nations as they consider appropriate for the
    prevention and suppression of acts of genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in
    article III.

    Genocide Convention 1948

    ...

    Let's not forget that the French effectively armed and trained the guilty party in Rwanda 1994.

    Means little though given Russia has a permanent veto on UN action on the Security Council
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085


    The fact remains that the economy is still in good shape and people have money to spend
    This really is out of tune I'm afraid.

    As a single mum I know just how much my living standards are falling with a terrible squeeze. I'm making big cutbacks every month just to keep my head above water. So to ozzymandias, yes I do get agitated.

    @moonshine piss off calling me a troll. It's beyond boring now. I'm not a troll. I'm a decent human being but, yes, I am on the left of centre and have alternative attitudes to lifestyle. The fact that you resort to namecalling me a troll says more about your own inability to access a worldview outside of your own. But it is also indicative of a demographic on here that is far from representative of this nation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559
    Foxy said:

    Do you really think the UK economy is booming?

    I think some sectors are booming, but by no means is everyone getting the benefit.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    Heathener said:

    Those of you pretending that this will not be 1997 all over again are right.

    It's worse.

    https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-effects-of-russias-war-push-uk-inflation-to-fresh-30-year-high-of-7-12588628

    Then the economy was in great shape. This time it's tanking.

    That's interesting.

    I keep being told it's all the fault of Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,815
    Foxy said:

    Do you really think the UK economy is booming?

    Non-state/third sector growth in February was 1% and 1.1% in January. The real economy is booming, about time too after two years of state expansion at the expense of the private sector.

    The government needs to start thinking about shrinking the state and making room for the private sector again. I'd also include the NHS in that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,778

    Morning all! Had a quiet night in Argelès last night. The weather was awful which left me rather less keen to explore than usual. I did make it to my new favourite brewery just in time for a very quick tour and tasting before they closed, then had a very tasty but not very French pizza with a few glasses of wine at the nearest restaurant to my hotel.

    I think Argelès might be the camping capital of France; there were at least five campsites in the town itself, and I passed another eight or nine in the first couple of miles on my way out of the place this morning. One of them, called L’Hippocampe did almost get me thinking..

    I’m now in St Cyprien (having my first, and soon second, beer) about halfway to Perpignan where I’ve decided to stay for two nights. I’ve booked an apartment rather than a hotel, with a washing machine so I can get all my clothes clean again - even my jeans!

    There’s quite a lot to see in Perpignan and it’s pretty cheap to stay there. Also, on Good Friday they have some crazy ancient procession through the centre (pic from wiki below). I’m looking forward to seeing the train station, which Dali called the centre of the universe - and where I intend to stop walking, at least for a while!


    If you don't know it, can I recommend Ceret? It's about 20 miles inland from where you are, and it's a great little market town with squares full of bars and restaurants to watch the world go by.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    MattW said:

    That's interesting.

    I keep being told it's all the fault of Brexit.
    I've personally moved on from Brexit, though I find it sad. But that it is having 'some' effect is obviously undeniable. And yet there are people who do try to deny this, which is extraordinary!

    It's almost as if Brexit belief is a cult.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,489

    That seems to be your bias showing, Zelenskyy doesn't seem to agree.

    Putin does seem to have moved the agenda on and Ukraine saying over the weekend that the UK is Ukraine's best ally in this conflict seems to have secured Johnson for the time being at least.
    Zelenskyy is doing a good job in PR and leading his people. I'm also sure that he says similar things to the other leaders who visit, we just don't get those comments reported to us. The mail etc are just playing up to Johnson 's Churchillian cosplay
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,246
    Selebian said:

    Depends on the course though. Mine was physics (four years combined masters) and a fair chunk of the assessment (over half for the masters year) was on lab work, not exams. That made sense, really, as the degree was about actually being able to do the stuff, not just know the answers or being able to work out the maths. You could have a theoretical physics degree completely assessed by exams, I guess.

    Actually, the >50% final year 'lab' assessment was, for my project, analysis of pre-collected data from a NASA probe, but even that can only really be tested by being given some data and some weeks to develop analysis of it, not really something you can truly assess in an exam. The skills I developed in that project and earlire labs have been more useful for my future career (and also for my lab-partner who is not in academia) than the stuff we were tested on in the exams.
    In my system it would be fine for universities to charge external candidates for lab time in such circumstances. So your degree might end up costing several £k for the exams whereas a theoretical physics exam would cost several hundreds.

    What happened during covid on similar courses? Did the universities deny the lab time whilst still charging full whack?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    Leon said:

    Bit of a scoop in Private Eye. We were discussing Owen Jones last night. This is not a good look for him or the Guardian


    ‘Owen Jones has relentlessly persecuted women online, including his own colleagues. An external investigator brought in by The Guardian has found him guilty of bullying a female columnist. Yet it has tried to keep the report quiet and appears not to have sanctioned Jones at all.’

    https://twitter.com/victoriapeckham/status/1514169122027884544?s=21&t=k6u1A4BZmOEQvg3zmxC7hg

    Reminds me of that Stephen Fry definition of "countryside".
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Ross played an absolute blinder a few months ago, when he managed to get unanimity in his parliamentary group for the Johnson resignation call.

    … then blew it all in a few short seconds when he did one of the most humiliating u-turns in modern Scottish political history.

    He’s a dead duck.
    My contempt and loathing for Johnson is unchanged over the last 24 hours, simply because it was already maxed out. But the scope has widened to encompass the whole of the cabinet, and beyond.

    Ross is a worm.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933

    Its the same with many languages. German, Dutch and Afrikaans speakers can kind-of understand much of what each other say even without speaking the other language. Languages have evolved over time and some of those have become different languages over time but they're related to each other.
    Used to go clubbing with a couple of Afrikaaner girls. Over the music it was impossible to tell whether they were speaking Afrikaaner or English. The cadence, sounds and tones are remarkably similar.
    Although that may have been the liquid MDMA.
  • Foxy said:

    Do you really think the UK economy is booming?

    GDP grew by about 7.5% in 2021.

    Its not going to keep growing like that if the Government keep raising taxes though.
  • If you don't know it, can I recommend Ceret? It's about 20 miles inland from where you are, and it's a great little market town with squares full of bars and restaurants to watch the world go by.
    Thanks! I’ll definitely check it out before I head off from Perpignan.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Means little though given Russia has a permanent veto on UN action on the Security Council
    Art VIII is just one way of going about things tho, it doesn't narrow the generality of the duty to prevent in Art I.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022

    its impossible to get a taxi as they are booked all the time.

    Chatted to a taxi driver the other day who said he's never been so busy. The reason? All the drivers left during covid. Well, obviously not 'everyone' but he said zillions packed up, many back to other countries.

    Supply and demand ...
  • dixiedean said:

    Used to go clubbing with a couple of Afrikaaner girls. Over the music it was impossible to tell whether they were speaking Afrikaaner or English. The cadence, sounds and tones are remarkably similar.
    Although that may have been the liquid MDMA.
    Definitely the MDMA, Afrikaans is very guttural to me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,621
    Heathener said:

    I've personally moved on from Brexit, though I find it sad. But that it is having 'some' effect is obviously undeniable. And yet there are people who do try to deny this, which is extraordinary!

    It's almost as if Brexit belief is a cult.
    No one sane thinks brexit has had no effects. However we cannot see the road not travelled, either on vaccines, jobs, P&O, anything. Its just something we need to deal with now. Governments cannot bind the hands of future parliaments, so the next government can change things.
    The biggest danger is for the polarised camps to stick to their guns;

    Remainer - 'Its all down to Brexit'
    Leaver - 'Its nothing to do with Brexit'

    Both are wrong.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    The cream crackers reference was for blaming Brexit. Don't troll and I won't call you out for it.

    So basically, tow your right-wing worldview, agree with you, and you won't call me a troll. Stop and think about that. It's pathetic.

    Obviously Brexit has had, and is having, 'an' effect. Not to list it among other reasons would be to descend into some dystopian depth of Orwellian horror.

    I'm not going to stop posting my left of centre beliefs and nor should I be bullied into doing so. It's putting my perspective which currently holds the majority opinion in the United Kingdom.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    I just don't have any opinions on anything. I'm trying to think of something, but there's nothing there

    I'll come back in a minute
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    No one sane thinks brexit has had no effects. However we cannot see the road not travelled, either on vaccines, jobs, P&O, anything. Its just something we need to deal with now. Governments cannot bind the hands of future parliaments, so the next government can change things.
    The biggest danger is for the polarised camps to stick to their guns;

    Remainer - 'Its all down to Brexit'
    Leaver - 'Its nothing to do with Brexit'

    Both are wrong.
    Agreed
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Leon said:

    I just don't have any opinions on anything. I'm trying to think of something, but there's nothing there

    I'll come back in a minute

    Lunchtime negroni should see you right.
  • Heathener said:

    So basically, tow your right-wing worldview, agree with you, and you won't call me a troll. Stop and think about that. It's pathetic.

    Obviously Brexit has had, and is having, 'an' effect. Not to list it among other reasons would be to descend into some dystopian depth of Orwellian horror.

    I'm not going to stop posting my left of centre beliefs and nor should I be bullied into doing so. It's putting my perspective which currently holds the majority opinion in the United Kingdom.
    If you want to credit Brexit as part of the reason why our inflation rate is lower than America's then sure go ahead with your dystopian nonsense, but you're being ridiculous.

    No, Brexit is not having any significant effect whatsoever on global inflation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,134

    Reminds me of that Stephen Fry definition of "countryside".
    By coincidence, Youtube has just recommended it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=285DD7QECzY
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,379
    Sweden & Finland will be big assets to NATO. Highly integrated with each other, highly inter-operable with NATO & in the latter case the largest artillery force in Europe, among other strengths. Their membership will also make it easier to defend NATO's northern flank & Baltics.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1514190621581398022
  • No one sane thinks brexit has had no effects. However we cannot see the road not travelled, either on vaccines, jobs, P&O, anything. Its just something we need to deal with now. Governments cannot bind the hands of future parliaments, so the next government can change things.
    The biggest danger is for the polarised camps to stick to their guns;

    Remainer - 'Its all down to Brexit'
    Leaver - 'Its nothing to do with Brexit'

    Both are wrong.
    We can't see the road not travelled but we can see the rest of the world like America with over 8% inflation.

    Global inflation is not Brexit-related, Brexit is a rounding error compared to the effects of the pandemic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    Heathener said:

    What utter, complete, rubbish.

    You are becoming the Dennis Healey of pb.com: whatever you say, we can be sure that the diametric opposite is true.
    Except, history shows I am right

    Read this brilliant piece by the great SeanT, who was once a congregant of this very same PB parish: "Why we remember wars but forget plagues"

    He's correct, and the absence of plague literature proves it


    https://unherd.com/2020/05/why-we-remember-wars-but-forget-plagues/



This discussion has been closed.