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For the first time since December 6 – a poll without a LAB lead – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    TCI pays pretty well, but he won't have joined as a partner. (And, indeed, Chris is famous for rewriting contracts for staff, and the reality is that there is exactly only partner with equity there... and that's Chris)

    Let's say he spent three years as an associate on 0.5m/year (which would be pretty exceptional), followed by another five as partner on 1.5m. Let's be generous and assume he then made 3m/year at Theleme.

    That would be a seriously impressive haul - and easily in the top 0.5% of performers from a Goldman class. But still probably wouldn't get you to 30m in a decade.
    Which I think is kinda of what I said originally...I just said he "doing pretty well" without stating any hard figures (for most people, even £10 million in 10 years is making significant money), but he married into the mega wealth.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363

    It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.

    Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
    Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436
    boulay said:

    He had a huge payday at TCIF but I imagine he also did very well as a founding partner of Theleme Partners after he left TCIF.

    I wonder if his time doing holiday jobs as a waiter at a family friend’s Indian restaurant influenced his push on “Eat out to Help out”?
    I didn't realise he was one of the founders of Theleme.

    That's a $2bn hedge fund, so actually maybe $30m is far from impossible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    For some reason I'd be immediately suspicious of a fund called The Children's Investment Fund.
    Yes, it has an air of 'raiding the kids piggybank and blowing their christmas money down the bookies' about it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436

    Which I think is kinda of what I said originally...I just said he "doing pretty well" without stating any hard figures (for most people, even £5-10 million in 10 years is definitely that), but he married into the mega wealth.
    Sorry, someone was throwing around 30m earlier, and I felt that - even for someone seriously great - that would be very hard to achieve in the first decade of a career in finance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1506674345581727750

    'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'


    Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).

    Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:

    SF 23 (-4)
    DUP 20 (-8)
    Alliance 14 (+6)
    UUP 12 (+2)
    SDLP 12 (-)
    TUV 3 (+2)
    PBP 2 (+1)
    Grn 2 (-)
    Others 2


    Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Thought it better with image and couple of tweaks.

    Soooo stuck in my head already

    image

    What would you think if I invaded Ukraine -
    Would you stand up and March in with me?
    Lend me your sons and I'll bring them back dead,
    And I'll try not to start world war 3

    Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends,
    Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends,
    Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends…
    Help, I need an army
    Help, not just any army
    Help, you know I have to fight, help...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    UK R

    image
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,617
    Dura_Ace said:

    La Legion Espanola (nickname: Bridegrooms of Death) know how to fight...
    The blokes that come out of our local British Legion don’t look like that!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    rcs1000 said:

    I didn't realise he was one of the founders of Theleme.

    That's a $2bn hedge fund, so actually maybe $30m is far from impossible.
    Certainly enough not to be driving a Kia Rio ;-)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    Case summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    Deaths

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830

    Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.


    What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.

    This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2022
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.

    Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
    For example: Jeremy Corbyn at Cheshunt station.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    On Topic

    Despite the on the face of it bad Poll for Starmer, I see yesterdays tone deaf budget as a turning point for Labour


    Even Starmer has a chance of beating a Tory party that shrugs its shoulders as people cry out for emergency help with the cost of living crisis.

    "Any other leader would be 20pts ahead" mind, as they used to say when Corbyn was ahead.

    Ha! Paving the way to give up on your hero Bozza?
  • Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.


    Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    COVID Summary

    - Cases - UP. R is falling all regions, though.
    - In hospital - UP
    - MV beds - UP
    - Admissions - UP. Admission R is steady at around 1.1
    - Deaths - UP.

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
    Too much information.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Ha! Paving the way to give up on your hero Bozza?
    Not really.

    There is a 0% chance I will vote Labour if Starmer is leader
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Applicant said:

    For example: Jeremy Corbyn at Cheshunt station.
    'twas photoshopped but summed up the man perfectly.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,681
    Cyclefree said:

    None of it came as a surprise. But it relied too much on some very questionable statements made by Tom Hayes. I know stuff about him that I cannot reveal publicly here. Safe to say that when I hear his disingenuous nonsense (to put it at its absolute mildest) about how he was an innocent sacrificed by higher ups I want to throw things at the radio and TV. The truth about him is very different indeed. He was rightly convicted.

    What annoys me about these programmes is how lazy the journalism is. The journalists rarely do any sort of digging around to get different views or, indeed, to get a view from the people who they know - or ought to - will have relevant information.
    My settled view of the way a typical investigative media story in this country is prepared is:

    1. Decide what your theme is going to be, considering what your audience would like and whether it's a sufficiently new angle to be interesting

    2. Interview a bunch of relevant people

    3. Select almost EXCLUSIVELY quotes that support your theme, maybe with one dissenting voice to pretend to show you're fair

    I've never encountered a British journalist who pursued a story looking open-mindedly for both sides and presenting a nuanced picture. They feel that's a messy approach which will leave viewers confused and fail to cut through.

    The only newspaper I've seen that goes out of its way to present both sides is USA Today. And, reluctantly, I admit the result is rather dull. But do we want entertainment, or do we want balanced information? I think we need the latter (and can have the former too if we want).
  • I’m warming to Boris Johnson.


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,728

    Not really.

    There is a 0% chance I will vote Labour if Starmer is leader
    The right really needs people like you; keep at it.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162
    Applicant said:

    Help, I need an army
    Help, not just any army
    Help, you know I have to fight, help...
    There’s quite an amusing Robbie Williams song from a few years ago called “party like a Russian” which I’m looking forward to being ironically used as a backing track for a Ukrainian video of Russian soldiers scattering as their vehicles come under attack and surrendering. Perfect juxtaposition of how Russians were viewed to how they are now…..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    I see England are already down to praying Ben Stokes can dig them out the doo doo....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Applicant said:

    Help, I need an army
    Help, not just any army
    Help, you know I have to fight, help...
    You love me, yeah, yeah, yeah.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162
    kinabalu said:

    What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.

    This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
    It looks like a Lucien Freud painting.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    kinabalu said:

    What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.

    This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
    Mm. He's swallowed a prune stone by mistake, one might suspect.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346

    Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
    You don't think...? I can't see his hands.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    Cyclefree said:

    None of it came as a surprise. But it relied too much on some very questionable statements made by Tom Hayes. I know stuff about him that I cannot reveal publicly here. Safe to say that when I hear his disingenuous nonsense (to put it at its absolute mildest) about how he was an innocent sacrificed by higher ups I want to throw things at the radio and TV. The truth about him is very different indeed. He was rightly convicted.

    What annoys me about these programmes is how lazy the journalism is. The journalists rarely do any sort of digging around to get different views or, indeed, to get a view from the people who they know - or ought to - will have relevant information.
    No, I didn't really buy the 'did nothing wrong' line from TH. But his sentence did seem stiff. And that fairly junior French guy seemed hard done by. And then with all of the similar (albeit different motive) rate manipulation coming from high places, plus the whole thing being subsequently found not criminal in other jurisdictions, eg the US, it does appear a bit of a mess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited March 2022
    Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/

    Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162

    Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
    Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,830
    boulay said:

    It looks like a Lucien Freud painting.
    Thankfully not quite - he's got his kit on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    boulay said:

    Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
    Fortunately the majority quite probably don't know he is their father.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363
    boulay said:

    It looks like a Lucien Freud painting.

    I was thinking more Francis Bacon: hideous, distorted features providing a window into human degradation and the essential hopelessness of existence.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,515
    edited March 2022

    Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/

    Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.

    The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.

    It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,167
    TimS said:

    LLG on this poll is 54%. At the low end of the 53-57% long term range but certainly not an outlier. It looks like the Lib Dems are somewhat overstated to the detriment of Labour in this one. And REFUK is at the low end, though I expect it has probably declined anyway from its highs around 6-7% a couple of months back. But they were going to come home anyway, just as about half of those 6% of greens will come home too.

    Another recent poll had LLG at 48% which was above the recent range.

    I expect to see some more Tory-Labour switching following the budget, probably bypassing both LDs and Greens. Would say 12% is probably a ceiling for the yellows in this parliament.

    If we take a step back and look at what has happened with the polls over the last few months then it appears that the effect of Putin's War has been to put British politics in stasis. The gradual narrowing of Labour's lead, as the Covid parties scandal began to bore people more than anger them, came to a halt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Andy_JS said:
    Filed by Putin under "No shit, Sherlock....."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,953
    Andy_JS said:
    Yes.
    Blame the guys with the Novichok isn't a long-term strategy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    edited March 2022
    Andy_JS said:
    If Johnson can pull off regime change and a Russian retreat from Ukraine, he's home and hosed for GE2022.

    Most likely a putsch than a coup. So the madness may continue regardless.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need

    I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
    Javid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346

    Javid.
    Bless you!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    If Johnson can pull off regime change and a Russian retreat from Ukraine, he's home and hosed for GE2022.

    Most likely a putsch than a coup. So the madness may continue regardless.
    Boris Ivanov, the hero of Moscow.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Bless you!
    Ta. Not Mordaunt. Three female (can I say that? People with Cervixes?) PM's for the Evil Tories is taking the proverbial.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)

    I’m warming to Boris Johnson.


    Is the Kremlin more reliable & candid than the Prime Minister?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,167
    HYUFD said:

    Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
    Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.

    However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.

    If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    boulay said:

    Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
    Anyone under 40-ish can imagine being one of his children and never know if it were true.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Is the Kremlin more reliable & candid than the Prime Minister?
    If Russia and Ukraine are agreeing on something, the rest of us should probably pay attention.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    Fishing said:

    The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.

    It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
    British architecture - so crap that Prince Fucking Charles is the visionary.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779
    kle4 said:

    For some reason I'd be immediately suspicious of a fund called The Children's Investment Fund.
    It was *his* children’s investment fund…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.

    However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.

    If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
    If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.

    Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
  • England are being shit at the cricket again.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2022

    I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
    Hunt and Mordaunt by far the best options for the Tories, I think.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited March 2022
    Is the Kremlin more reliable & candid than the Prime Minister?

    If Russia and Ukraine are agreeing on something, the rest of us should probably pay attention.

    So your answer to my question is - yes?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    edited March 2022
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.

    Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
    When will this occur? You have been suggesting triggering A16 has been imminent for months. Surely Johnson doesn't light the blue touch paper until at least after the war in Ukraine is won. It wouldn't look like Western allies in lockstep.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.

    Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
    Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554

    England are being shit at the cricket again.

    They aren't even facing a world class bowling attack.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,753
    HYUFD said:

    If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.

    Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
    In your dreams.

    I suspect the UK Government is quite happy having control over NI affairs as it allows them to implement some of the things (abortion, a sane gambling act) the Unionists have spent years blocking
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    Ta. Not Mordaunt. Three female (can I say that? People with Cervixes?) PM's for the Evil Tories is taking the proverbial.
    Cervices?

    Mordaunt is Truss gone right. I want Truss to be good, but I put her in the same category as May - doesn't matter how many power outfits and photo-ops, there's a cocktail sausage missing from the picnic. There's something that just isn't functioning correctly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    Is the Kremlin more reliable & candid than the Prime Minister?
    About the same?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Carnyx said:

    Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
    Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    ...

    When will this occur? You have been suggesting triggering A16 has been imminent for months. Surely Johnson doesn't light the blue touch paper until the war in Ukraine is won. It wouldn't look like Western allies in lockstep.
    It will be as soon as the situation in Ukraine settles down
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    Hunt and Mordaunt by far the best options for the Tories, I think.
    Hunt is well presented, but he's continuity Cameron. He doesn't have any answers for what the world is like now. Not sure Mordaunt does either to be honest, but I am sure Hunt doesn't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    eek said:

    In your dreams.

    I suspect the UK Government is quite happy having control over NI affairs as it allows them to implement some of the things (abortion, a sane gambling act) the Unionists have spent years blocking
    While we are on the topic of true Britishness (sic, especially in this context) the Staggers has done a special issue on the matter.

    https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1506949213296414721

    "National character is a slippery eel; the moment you think you have a grip on it, it’s gone. Its essence is fleeting; its shape shifts ­constantly and yet you know it when you see it, even if each person sees something different."

    Beginning of a thread concluding that there is nothing in common - and on the way, commenting that "In the absence of a constitution or a bill of rights we have no foundational documents to refer to, beyond the Magna Carta, which was not even written in English."

    Conclusion "This, ultimately, is what Britain’s political culture lacks: not so much an ideal or a dream, but a set of principles that could apply to a common future; the idea that Britain stands for something more than posterity and itself."

    And that article expressly excludes the matter of the four nations.

    Will be interesting to see what the other articles have to say.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,753
    edited March 2022

    Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/

    Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.

    WTF was he doing buying that building if he wanted to remove it.

    Oh just saw he inherited it - I'm sure if he dislikes it that much the council will accept the building were he to gift it to them.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162

    Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.

    I believe there’s a bit of a kick-off in that part of the world at the moment - something about Ukraine wanting to be a fully independent country. But worth asking.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited March 2022
    I'm not sure that Johnson's rhetoric today about "ramping up lethal aid to Ukraine" is the vote-winner he thinks it is. The unpalatable truth is that most people are exhausted by the conflict and want it to go away.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,693
    edited March 2022
    Fishing said:

    The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.

    It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
    Whether X y or z is "awful" is pretty much a matter of fashion.

    A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.

    On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.

    It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough. It becomes poisonous if the Council start compelling him to keep it if he does not want to.

    I'd give it to the Council so they can set it to look as if it is just landing in the Isis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
    They're not the only ones in NI. And a lot of people like the current situation, including a lot of Unionist voters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,346
    HYUFD said:

    Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
    Absolutely bonkers on several levels.

    NI is very much a fence you need to sit on when you reach high office.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022
    ....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,274
    eek said:

    WTF was he doing buying that building if he wanted to remove it.
    Even if he doesn't want to remove it, status like that makes him responsible for paying for upkeep etc.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited March 2022

    I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
    People over-think this, in my view.

    In opposition, parties cast the net reasonably widely and look for a leader who they hope will look like an attractive option for PM in a couple of years or so. That means people like Blair and Cameron, who had never held any ministerial office, have a decent chance.

    But, in office, a party choosing a new leader is choosing someone to step up as PM from day one with all that entails in terms of being ready. I cannot think of a single UK example of a party in Government choosing a leader (and therefore PM) who wasn't either a current or former holder of one of the great offices of state.

    If the Conservatives were in opposition, Mordaunt would perhaps have a chance. But if there is a change of leader before then, I think people understate just how unlikely it is that it would be someone other than Sunak, Truss, or Hunt (or Patel in theory although I think the manner of her departure under May rules it out). The obvious answers are overwhelmingly the most likely ones here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MattW said:

    Whether X y or z is "awful" is pretty much a matter of fashion.

    A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.

    On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.

    It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough.
    Hmm, St Andrews House, Edinburgh; the Underground stations of the Metroland and similar extensions; Lutyen's war memorial at Leicester; the Edinburgh University science area; some of the colleges at Oxford; IIRC also the University of London (inspiration admittedly for Orwell's Minitrue IIRC); the suburban street preserved in Bromley/Orpington ...
  • And right up to 21.59 on December 12 2019 you were "confidently" predicting an "earthquake" or some such thing as you'd been on Twitter. And you getting exhaustingly priapic over every poll suggesting a hung parliament in the preceding months.

    The Tories may very lose the next Election but then again they may increase their majority. You have no idea.
    Well I wasn't one of those claiming the Tories were going to be in power for another ten years
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.

    I am not sure Poland would want them. They are a very tricky bunch it seems to me. Very similar to Russians in their capacity for implacable resentment. Ukraine and Russia at war was very aptly described here as Russia invading Russia. A Russia that hates Russia in a way that only Russians can.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,693
    edited March 2022
    eek said:

    WTF was he doing buying that building if he wanted to remove it.
    He inherited it from his dad, who put the statue there.

    As it .. er .. says in the article :smiley: .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
    You mean "more than Nationalists" surely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Carnyx said:

    They're not the only ones in NI. And a lot of people like the current situation, including a lot of Unionist voters.
    Nor are Nationalists the only ones in NI and 69% of Unionists want the NI Protocol scrapped. Only 21% of NI voters think there are no problems with it

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulster-union-northern-ireland-polling-100000007.html

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436
    kle4 said:

    An interesting piece on options for compromise and realism, noting such a seeking is not amoral, but may still be problematic to achieve

    https://samf.substack.com/p/losing-wars-and-saving-face?r=15i4j0&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

    That's a really excellent article.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,693
    edited March 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Hmm, St Andrews House, Edinburgh; the Underground stations of the Metroland and similar extensions; Lutyen's war memorial at Leicester; the Edinburgh University science area; some of the colleges at Oxford; IIRC also the University of London (inspiration admittedly for Orwell's Minitrue IIRC); the suburban street preserved in Bromley/Orpington ...
    The British Library, Coventry Cathedral, Span Housing, the Isokon ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Nor are Nationalists the only ones in NI and 69% of Unionists want the NI Protocol scrapped. Only 21% of NI voters think there are no problems with it

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulster-union-northern-ireland-polling-100000007.html

    Not surprising given HMG's implementation of the protocol. And Unionists - real ones, not Alliance etc - are not a majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,436
    New thread
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,162
    MattW said:

    He inherited it from his dad, who put the statue there.

    As it .. er .. says in the article :smiley: .
    Someone who is probably in favour of Inheritance Shark At-tax
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856

    I'm not sure that Johnson's rhetoric today about "ramping up lethal aid to Ukraine" is the vote-winner he thinks it is. The unpalatable truth is that most people are exhausted by the conflict and want it to go away.

    'Lethal aid' is a rather disgusting phrase. Albeit that arming the Ukrainians is probably better than allowing them to collapse.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307

    Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/

    Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.

    Wow, that takes me back to old Oxford days (was a City Councillor there for a brief period). That was the handiwork of Bill Heine, crazee American guy, who founded the Penultimate Picture Palace off Cowley Road. Got to know him quite well. I think (hope) Bill is still alive.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,167
    HYUFD said:

    If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.

    Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
    Invoking Article 16 is the opposite of making the status quo work. It would be Unionists causing disruption, showing that the status quo is broken and making the case for Unification of the Island.
  • Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/

    Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.

    The owner doesn't want to get rid of it at all. He is the son of the man who put it there, Bill Heine, and is making an intellectual point which is that the point of the artwork was as an FU to the Council for refusing him permission for something else, so there is an absurdity about the Council being heavy handed in a different way several decades later by making it a heritage asset.

    I do sort of get his point, but it is a bit of intellectual onanism to be honest.
  • JohnO said:

    Wow, that takes me back to old Oxford days (was a City Councillor there for a brief period). That was the handiwork of Bill Heine, crazee American guy, who founded the Penultimate Picture Palace off Cowley Road. Got to know him quite well. I think (hope) Bill is still alive.
    No, he died a few years ago and the current owner is his son and heir.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363

    England are being shit at the cricket again.

    Nature is healing etc
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,363
    eek said:

    WTF was he doing buying that building if he wanted to remove it.

    Oh just saw he inherited it - I'm sure if he dislikes it that much the council will accept the building were he to gift it to them.
    Never look a gift shark in the mouth.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,617
    HYUFD said:

    Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
    “As much as” not “more than” which normally seems to be the case.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.

    Merging Lithuania, Byelorus and Ukraine less Donblas and Crimea recreates the Grand Duchy of Lithuania

    Adding in Poland creates the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

    I prefer GDL
This discussion has been closed.