I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
According to wikipedia, he only did 3 years at Goldman, then left and became a partner at The Children's Investment Fund Management by 2006, before then moving to Theleme Partners. And also director of investment firm Catamaran Ventures.
So looks like he was "partner" level and above for about 8 years.
TCI pays pretty well, but he won't have joined as a partner. (And, indeed, Chris is famous for rewriting contracts for staff, and the reality is that there is exactly only partner with equity there... and that's Chris)
Let's say he spent three years as an associate on 0.5m/year (which would be pretty exceptional), followed by another five as partner on 1.5m. Let's be generous and assume he then made 3m/year at Theleme.
That would be a seriously impressive haul - and easily in the top 0.5% of performers from a Goldman class. But still probably wouldn't get you to 30m in a decade.
The poll could be an outlier but even so it does show for the umpteenth time the disconnect between the 'chatterers' view of the government and the public. To read on PB and Twitter is so different to where the public are.
No, it's relevant because it says what you want to see.
PB is pretty aligned with all polling saying this budget is a disaster.
And as one of the first who said we'd get sustained Labour leads, looks I was more in tune than you.
From his bunker in Southern Spain Felix has his finger on the pulse of the English voter.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
People before Profit are also nationalists as well.
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
According to wikipedia, he only did 3 years at Goldman, then left and became a partner at The Children's Investment Fund Management by 2006, before then moving to Theleme Partners. And also director of investment firm Catamaran Ventures.
So looks like he was "partner" level and above for about 8 years.
TCI pays pretty well, but he won't have joined as a partner. (And, indeed, Chris is famous for rewriting contracts for staff, and the reality is that there is exactly only partner with equity there... and that's Chris)
Let's say he spent three years as an associate on 0.5m/year (which would be pretty exceptional), followed by another five as partner on 1.5m. Let's be generous and assume he then made 3m/year at Theleme.
That would be a seriously impressive haul - and easily in the top 0.5% of performers from a Goldman class. But still probably wouldn't get you to 30m in a decade.
Which I think is kinda of what I said originally...I just said he "doing pretty well" without stating any hard figures (for most people, even £10 million in 10 years is making significant money), but he married into the mega wealth.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
He did three years at Goldman, then worked in hedge funds for another 7. Superficially, it is possible that he made a lot of money by way of his own raw talent, but it is equally possible that he was a dud and the latter part of his career was a front. Or it could be a mixture of the two. We don't know.
From memory don't we know that Rishi did make decent money from the hedge fund but I see to remember @Cyclefree commenting that things were not 100% kosher.
He presumably made good money at Goldmans and at The Childrens Investment Fund, the hedge fund where he worked after GS.
My comment was related to TCIF's behaviour, not Sunak personally.
He had a huge payday at TCIF but I imagine he also did very well as a founding partner of Theleme Partners after he left TCIF.
I wonder if his time doing holiday jobs as a waiter at a family friend’s Indian restaurant influenced his push on “Eat out to Help out”?
I didn't realise he was one of the founders of Theleme.
That's a $2bn hedge fund, so actually maybe $30m is far from impossible.
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
He did three years at Goldman, then worked in hedge funds for another 7. Superficially, it is possible that he made a lot of money by way of his own raw talent, but it is equally possible that he was a dud and the latter part of his career was a front. Or it could be a mixture of the two. We don't know.
From memory don't we know that Rishi did make decent money from the hedge fund but I see to remember @Cyclefree commenting that things were not 100% kosher.
He presumably made good money at Goldmans and at The Childrens Investment Fund, the hedge fund where he worked after GS.
My comment was related to TCIF's behaviour, not Sunak personally.
For some reason I'd be immediately suspicious of a fund called The Children's Investment Fund.
Yes, it has an air of 'raiding the kids piggybank and blowing their christmas money down the bookies' about it.
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
According to wikipedia, he only did 3 years at Goldman, then left and became a partner at The Children's Investment Fund Management by 2006, before then moving to Theleme Partners. And also director of investment firm Catamaran Ventures.
So looks like he was "partner" level and above for about 8 years.
TCI pays pretty well, but he won't have joined as a partner. (And, indeed, Chris is famous for rewriting contracts for staff, and the reality is that there is exactly only partner with equity there... and that's Chris)
Let's say he spent three years as an associate on 0.5m/year (which would be pretty exceptional), followed by another five as partner on 1.5m. Let's be generous and assume he then made 3m/year at Theleme.
That would be a seriously impressive haul - and easily in the top 0.5% of performers from a Goldman class. But still probably wouldn't get you to 30m in a decade.
Which I think is kinda of what I said originally...I just said he "doing pretty well" without stating any hard figures (for most people, even £5-10 million in 10 years is definitely that), but he married into the mega wealth.
Sorry, someone was throwing around 30m earlier, and I felt that - even for someone seriously great - that would be very hard to achieve in the first decade of a career in finance.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war. - Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
The question that I am interested in, is what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war? It seems that the conventional Russian military capacity is taking an absolute hammering. Difficult to see how it could be rolled out to invade another country.
The Russians should be forced back to their own borders, forced to pay reparations, and the people involved should be tried for war crimes. No other outcome should be considered.
"what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war?"
Chemical or biological weapons. Less bogeymanish and known to the general public, and easier to deny (look at the denialism over Assad's culpability for their use in Syria). In addition, the west does not have a set reaction to their use, or have similar weapons to immediately respond with AIUI.
Hence the use of chemical or biological weapons are something we cannot respond to in kind, and a nuclear retaliation would be OTT. And used right, they can be very useful.
Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences.
In tandem with this, expect a big attempt to split the sanctions regime against him - Germany seems an unsteady domino in that regard. The longer this goes on, the stronger sanctions should get. Sadly, they'll get weaker.
"Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences."
This assumes that sending lots of troops gets you something. The lesson of history is that while numbers are useful, an army that doesn't have logistics sorted out simply doesn't work. The initial Russian deployment to Ukraine is their best troops and what they *thought* they could sustain.
The logistics have broken down for their 200K force. Adding more soldiers might well make things worse.
It depends. If they've settled down to defensive positions on most fronts, then they may find it easier to improve the logistics situation, and they might get further only working with one advancing front, into which they'd pour their reinforcements.
Where are they going to get the extra logistical capability from?
Their friends?
Reminds me of a Beatles song. Think the lyrics go something like this. Big hit with conscripts.
What would you think if Invaded Ukraine? Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your troops and I'll bring them back dead And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends
LOL 👍🏻
Your seven lines alone better than 2 series of spitting image
Thought it better with image and couple of tweaks.
Soooo stuck in my head already
What would you think if I invaded Ukraine - Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your sons and I'll bring them back dead, And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends, Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends, Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends…
Help, I need an army Help, not just any army Help, you know I have to fight, help...
Having watched some footage of the Chechan fighters on the Ukrainian side, they seem shall we say rather trigger happy. They seem to fire off weapons like they are playing CoD with an infinite ammo cheat on.
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/kamilkazani (great analysis of the war in my opinion) thinks they are useless as soldiers against a professional army but are a photo opportunity for propaganda and their deserved reputation for cruelty is a psyops factor and also to intimidate Russian troops thinking of deserting.
Sort of like these fabulous boys…..
La Legion Espanola (nickname: Bridegrooms of Death) know how to fight...
The blokes that come out of our local British Legion don’t look like that!
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
He did three years at Goldman, then worked in hedge funds for another 7. Superficially, it is possible that he made a lot of money by way of his own raw talent, but it is equally possible that he was a dud and the latter part of his career was a front. Or it could be a mixture of the two. We don't know.
From memory don't we know that Rishi did make decent money from the hedge fund but I see to remember @Cyclefree commenting that things were not 100% kosher.
He presumably made good money at Goldmans and at The Childrens Investment Fund, the hedge fund where he worked after GS.
My comment was related to TCIF's behaviour, not Sunak personally.
He had a huge payday at TCIF but I imagine he also did very well as a founding partner of Theleme Partners after he left TCIF.
I wonder if his time doing holiday jobs as a waiter at a family friend’s Indian restaurant influenced his push on “Eat out to Help out”?
I didn't realise he was one of the founders of Theleme.
That's a $2bn hedge fund, so actually maybe $30m is far from impossible.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
- Cases - UP. R is falling all regions, though. - In hospital - UP - MV beds - UP - Admissions - UP. Admission R is steady at around 1.1 - Deaths - UP.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
For example: Jeremy Corbyn at Cheshunt station.
'twas photoshopped but summed up the man perfectly.
Did you listen to that recent Lowball Tapes podcast? Some things there I hadn't realized, I must say.
None of it came as a surprise. But it relied too much on some very questionable statements made by Tom Hayes. I know stuff about him that I cannot reveal publicly here. Safe to say that when I hear his disingenuous nonsense (to put it at its absolute mildest) about how he was an innocent sacrificed by higher ups I want to throw things at the radio and TV. The truth about him is very different indeed. He was rightly convicted.
What annoys me about these programmes is how lazy the journalism is. The journalists rarely do any sort of digging around to get different views or, indeed, to get a view from the people who they know - or ought to - will have relevant information.
My settled view of the way a typical investigative media story in this country is prepared is:
1. Decide what your theme is going to be, considering what your audience would like and whether it's a sufficiently new angle to be interesting
2. Interview a bunch of relevant people
3. Select almost EXCLUSIVELY quotes that support your theme, maybe with one dissenting voice to pretend to show you're fair
I've never encountered a British journalist who pursued a story looking open-mindedly for both sides and presenting a nuanced picture. They feel that's a messy approach which will leave viewers confused and fail to cut through.
The only newspaper I've seen that goes out of its way to present both sides is USA Today. And, reluctantly, I admit the result is rather dull. But do we want entertainment, or do we want balanced information? I think we need the latter (and can have the former too if we want).
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war. - Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
The question that I am interested in, is what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war? It seems that the conventional Russian military capacity is taking an absolute hammering. Difficult to see how it could be rolled out to invade another country.
The Russians should be forced back to their own borders, forced to pay reparations, and the people involved should be tried for war crimes. No other outcome should be considered.
"what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war?"
Chemical or biological weapons. Less bogeymanish and known to the general public, and easier to deny (look at the denialism over Assad's culpability for their use in Syria). In addition, the west does not have a set reaction to their use, or have similar weapons to immediately respond with AIUI.
Hence the use of chemical or biological weapons are something we cannot respond to in kind, and a nuclear retaliation would be OTT. And used right, they can be very useful.
Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences.
In tandem with this, expect a big attempt to split the sanctions regime against him - Germany seems an unsteady domino in that regard. The longer this goes on, the stronger sanctions should get. Sadly, they'll get weaker.
"Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences."
This assumes that sending lots of troops gets you something. The lesson of history is that while numbers are useful, an army that doesn't have logistics sorted out simply doesn't work. The initial Russian deployment to Ukraine is their best troops and what they *thought* they could sustain.
The logistics have broken down for their 200K force. Adding more soldiers might well make things worse.
It depends. If they've settled down to defensive positions on most fronts, then they may find it easier to improve the logistics situation, and they might get further only working with one advancing front, into which they'd pour their reinforcements.
Where are they going to get the extra logistical capability from?
Their friends?
Reminds me of a Beatles song. Think the lyrics go something like this. Big hit with conscripts.
What would you think if Invaded Ukraine? Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your troops and I'll bring them back dead And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends
LOL 👍🏻
Your seven lines alone better than 2 series of spitting image
Thought it better with image and couple of tweaks.
Soooo stuck in my head already
What would you think if I invaded Ukraine - Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your sons and I'll bring them back dead, And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends, Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends, Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends…
Help, I need an army Help, not just any army Help, you know I have to fight, help...
There’s quite an amusing Robbie Williams song from a few years ago called “party like a Russian” which I’m looking forward to being ironically used as a backing track for a Ukrainian video of Russian soldiers scattering as their vehicles come under attack and surrendering. Perfect juxtaposition of how Russians were viewed to how they are now…..
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war. - Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
The question that I am interested in, is what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war? It seems that the conventional Russian military capacity is taking an absolute hammering. Difficult to see how it could be rolled out to invade another country.
The Russians should be forced back to their own borders, forced to pay reparations, and the people involved should be tried for war crimes. No other outcome should be considered.
"what exactly are Putin's options to escalate the conflict aside from nuclear war?"
Chemical or biological weapons. Less bogeymanish and known to the general public, and easier to deny (look at the denialism over Assad's culpability for their use in Syria). In addition, the west does not have a set reaction to their use, or have similar weapons to immediately respond with AIUI.
Hence the use of chemical or biological weapons are something we cannot respond to in kind, and a nuclear retaliation would be OTT. And used right, they can be very useful.
Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences.
In tandem with this, expect a big attempt to split the sanctions regime against him - Germany seems an unsteady domino in that regard. The longer this goes on, the stronger sanctions should get. Sadly, they'll get weaker.
"Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences."
This assumes that sending lots of troops gets you something. The lesson of history is that while numbers are useful, an army that doesn't have logistics sorted out simply doesn't work. The initial Russian deployment to Ukraine is their best troops and what they *thought* they could sustain.
The logistics have broken down for their 200K force. Adding more soldiers might well make things worse.
It depends. If they've settled down to defensive positions on most fronts, then they may find it easier to improve the logistics situation, and they might get further only working with one advancing front, into which they'd pour their reinforcements.
Where are they going to get the extra logistical capability from?
Their friends?
Reminds me of a Beatles song. Think the lyrics go something like this. Big hit with conscripts.
What would you think if Invaded Ukraine? Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your troops and I'll bring them back dead And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends
LOL 👍🏻
Your seven lines alone better than 2 series of spitting image
Thought it better with image and couple of tweaks.
Soooo stuck in my head already
What would you think if I invaded Ukraine - Would you stand up and March in with me? Lend me your sons and I'll bring them back dead, And I'll try not to start world war 3
Oh, I will fight with a little help from my friends, Mmm, I get fried with a little help from my friends, Ooh, I'm gonna die with a little help from my friends…
Help, I need an army Help, not just any army Help, you know I have to fight, help...
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
Mm. He's swallowed a prune stone by mistake, one might suspect.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
He did three years at Goldman, then worked in hedge funds for another 7. Superficially, it is possible that he made a lot of money by way of his own raw talent, but it is equally possible that he was a dud and the latter part of his career was a front. Or it could be a mixture of the two. We don't know.
From memory don't we know that Rishi did make decent money from the hedge fund but I see to remember @Cyclefree commenting that things were not 100% kosher.
He presumably made good money at Goldmans and at The Childrens Investment Fund, the hedge fund where he worked after GS.
My comment was related to TCIF's behaviour, not Sunak personally.
Did you listen to that recent Lowball Tapes podcast? Some things there I hadn't realized, I must say.
None of it came as a surprise. But it relied too much on some very questionable statements made by Tom Hayes. I know stuff about him that I cannot reveal publicly here. Safe to say that when I hear his disingenuous nonsense (to put it at its absolute mildest) about how he was an innocent sacrificed by higher ups I want to throw things at the radio and TV. The truth about him is very different indeed. He was rightly convicted.
What annoys me about these programmes is how lazy the journalism is. The journalists rarely do any sort of digging around to get different views or, indeed, to get a view from the people who they know - or ought to - will have relevant information.
No, I didn't really buy the 'did nothing wrong' line from TH. But his sentence did seem stiff. And that fairly junior French guy seemed hard done by. And then with all of the similar (albeit different motive) rate manipulation coming from high places, plus the whole thing being subsequently found not criminal in other jurisdictions, eg the US, it does appear a bit of a mess.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
Fortunately the majority quite probably don't know he is their father.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
What portrait photographers do - the great ones - is capture the essence of their subject.
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
It looks like a Lucien Freud painting.
I was thinking more Francis Bacon: hideous, distorted features providing a window into human degradation and the essential hopelessness of existence.
LLG on this poll is 54%. At the low end of the 53-57% long term range but certainly not an outlier. It looks like the Lib Dems are somewhat overstated to the detriment of Labour in this one. And REFUK is at the low end, though I expect it has probably declined anyway from its highs around 6-7% a couple of months back. But they were going to come home anyway, just as about half of those 6% of greens will come home too.
Another recent poll had LLG at 48% which was above the recent range.
I expect to see some more Tory-Labour switching following the budget, probably bypassing both LDs and Greens. Would say 12% is probably a ceiling for the yellows in this parliament.
If we take a step back and look at what has happened with the polls over the last few months then it appears that the effect of Putin's War has been to put British politics in stasis. The gradual narrowing of Labour's lead, as the Covid parties scandal began to bore people more than anger them, came to a halt.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
Javid.
Bless you!
Ta. Not Mordaunt. Three female (can I say that? People with Cervixes?) PM's for the Evil Tories is taking the proverbial.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
+1
It's rather like the games that photographers play - I can get a shot of *anyone* looking brilliant/ stupid/ murderous/ gormless/ anything.
Just give me 50 frames a second for long enough.
Some subjects are more helpful in this regard than others.
Now I know what Boris Johnson’s vinegar stroke looks like.
Imagine being one of his children seeing that photo knowing that’s how their father looked in the moment they were conceived.
Anyone under 40-ish can imagine being one of his children and never know if it were true.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
British architecture - so crap that Prince Fucking Charles is the visionary.
I suppose the difficult issue with Rishi's wealth is that he married it. Had he been a self-made man he could have highlighted his success as a strength.
That's not 100% true. He had 10 years doing pretty well working in the city. It seems highly unlikely he didn't make a significant amount of money himself out of that career.
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
A decade at Goldman, unless he got to partner level, will mean he got to a level of wealth to own a nice flat in London outright, or to have a relatively small mortgage on a slightly less nice house. Unless he was truly exceptional, I very much doubt he made anything near £10m from his time there (before tax), because he started relatively junior.
He did three years at Goldman, then worked in hedge funds for another 7. Superficially, it is possible that he made a lot of money by way of his own raw talent, but it is equally possible that he was a dud and the latter part of his career was a front. Or it could be a mixture of the two. We don't know.
From memory don't we know that Rishi did make decent money from the hedge fund but I see to remember @Cyclefree commenting that things were not 100% kosher.
He presumably made good money at Goldmans and at The Childrens Investment Fund, the hedge fund where he worked after GS.
My comment was related to TCIF's behaviour, not Sunak personally.
For some reason I'd be immediately suspicious of a fund called The Children's Investment Fund.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
Hunt and Mordaunt by far the best options for the Tories, I think.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
When will this occur? You have been suggesting triggering A16 has been imminent for months. Surely Johnson doesn't light the blue touch paper until at least after the war in Ukraine is won. It wouldn't look like Western allies in lockstep.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
In your dreams.
I suspect the UK Government is quite happy having control over NI affairs as it allows them to implement some of the things (abortion, a sane gambling act) the Unionists have spent years blocking
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
Javid.
Bless you!
Ta. Not Mordaunt. Three female (can I say that? People with Cervixes?) PM's for the Evil Tories is taking the proverbial.
Cervices?
Mordaunt is Truss gone right. I want Truss to be good, but I put her in the same category as May - doesn't matter how many power outfits and photo-ops, there's a cocktail sausage missing from the picnic. There's something that just isn't functioning correctly.
What’s this with selective video clips. Johnson had already spoken to Biden and Macron at the NATO meet and Macron as G7 host was escorting Biden to someone he hadn’t met yet! If “spotting slights” was an industry U.K. twitter would be world leading (if largely inaccurate!)
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
When will this occur? You have been suggesting triggering A16 has been imminent for months. Surely Johnson doesn't light the blue touch paper until the war in Ukraine is won. It wouldn't look like Western allies in lockstep.
It will be as soon as the situation in Ukraine settles down
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
Hunt and Mordaunt by far the best options for the Tories, I think.
Hunt is well presented, but he's continuity Cameron. He doesn't have any answers for what the world is like now. Not sure Mordaunt does either to be honest, but I am sure Hunt doesn't.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
In your dreams.
I suspect the UK Government is quite happy having control over NI affairs as it allows them to implement some of the things (abortion, a sane gambling act) the Unionists have spent years blocking
While we are on the topic of true Britishness (sic, especially in this context) the Staggers has done a special issue on the matter.
"National character is a slippery eel; the moment you think you have a grip on it, it’s gone. Its essence is fleeting; its shape shifts constantly and yet you know it when you see it, even if each person sees something different."
Beginning of a thread concluding that there is nothing in common - and on the way, commenting that "In the absence of a constitution or a bill of rights we have no foundational documents to refer to, beyond the Magna Carta, which was not even written in English."
Conclusion "This, ultimately, is what Britain’s political culture lacks: not so much an ideal or a dream, but a set of principles that could apply to a common future; the idea that Britain stands for something more than posterity and itself."
And that article expressly excludes the matter of the four nations.
Will be interesting to see what the other articles have to say.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.
I believe there’s a bit of a kick-off in that part of the world at the moment - something about Ukraine wanting to be a fully independent country. But worth asking.
I'm not sure that Johnson's rhetoric today about "ramping up lethal aid to Ukraine" is the vote-winner he thinks it is. The unpalatable truth is that most people are exhausted by the conflict and want it to go away.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
Whether X y or z is "awful" is pretty much a matter of fashion.
A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.
On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.
It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough. It becomes poisonous if the Council start compelling him to keep it if he does not want to.
I'd give it to the Council so they can set it to look as if it is just landing in the Isis.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
They're not the only ones in NI. And a lot of people like the current situation, including a lot of Unionist voters.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
Absolutely bonkers on several levels.
NI is very much a fence you need to sit on when you reach high office.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
I think we can say after the newspaper headlines today and sunak looking uncomfortable as he was quizzed about his wife's Russian interests any chance he has of leading the conservative party is gone. He will soon be the most unpopular chancellor in history and I imagine by the age of 45 his political career will be all but over...basically he's just Tony Blair Mark 2 anyway...not what we need
I tend to agree. Bin for him. Truss is a total non starter too. That leaves people outside of the cabinet. Which is probably not a bad thing. Penny Mordaunt I'm thinking at the moment.
People over-think this, in my view.
In opposition, parties cast the net reasonably widely and look for a leader who they hope will look like an attractive option for PM in a couple of years or so. That means people like Blair and Cameron, who had never held any ministerial office, have a decent chance.
But, in office, a party choosing a new leader is choosing someone to step up as PM from day one with all that entails in terms of being ready. I cannot think of a single UK example of a party in Government choosing a leader (and therefore PM) who wasn't either a current or former holder of one of the great offices of state.
If the Conservatives were in opposition, Mordaunt would perhaps have a chance. But if there is a change of leader before then, I think people understate just how unlikely it is that it would be someone other than Sunak, Truss, or Hunt (or Patel in theory although I think the manner of her departure under May rules it out). The obvious answers are overwhelmingly the most likely ones here.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
Whether X y or z is "awful" is pretty much a matter of fashion.
A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.
On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.
It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough.
Hmm, St Andrews House, Edinburgh; the Underground stations of the Metroland and similar extensions; Lutyen's war memorial at Leicester; the Edinburgh University science area; some of the colleges at Oxford; IIRC also the University of London (inspiration admittedly for Orwell's Minitrue IIRC); the suburban street preserved in Bromley/Orpington ...
The poll could be an outlier but even so it does show for the umpteenth time the disconnect between the 'chatterers' view of the government and the public. To read on PB and Twitter is so different to where the public are.
No, it's relevant because it says what you want to see.
PB is pretty aligned with all polling saying this budget is a disaster.
And as one of the first who said we'd get sustained Labour leads, looks I was more in tune than you.
And right up to 21.59 on December 12 2019 you were "confidently" predicting an "earthquake" or some such thing as you'd been on Twitter. And you getting exhaustingly priapic over every poll suggesting a hung parliament in the preceding months.
The Tories may very lose the next Election but then again they may increase their majority. You have no idea.
Well I wasn't one of those claiming the Tories were going to be in power for another ten years
Why not have Ukraine federate with Poland. Becomes one country and at a stroke nullifying need for NATO or EU admission. Putin can get his bits in the East. Has the added benefit of Putin getting what he ultimately wants - Ukraine not being a sovereign nation. As it wouldn't be. The Greater Poland Federation. Sorted.
I am not sure Poland would want them. They are a very tricky bunch it seems to me. Very similar to Russians in their capacity for implacable resentment. Ukraine and Russia at war was very aptly described here as Russia invading Russia. A Russia that hates Russia in a way that only Russians can.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
They're not the only ones in NI. And a lot of people like the current situation, including a lot of Unionist voters.
Nor are Nationalists the only ones in NI and 69% of Unionists want the NI Protocol scrapped. Only 21% of NI voters think there are no problems with it
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The choice of listed buildings in this country is a joke.
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
Whether X y or z is "awful" is pretty much a matter of fashion.
A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.
On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.
It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough.
Hmm, St Andrews House, Edinburgh; the Underground stations of the Metroland and similar extensions; Lutyen's war memorial at Leicester; the Edinburgh University science area; some of the colleges at Oxford; IIRC also the University of London (inspiration admittedly for Orwell's Minitrue IIRC); the suburban street preserved in Bromley/Orpington ...
The British Library, Coventry Cathedral, Span Housing, the Isokon ...
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Which will upset almost everyone in NI other than the ones with their arses hanging out of the window in excitement at restarting the Troubles. So you are no better off and in fact much worse off.
Unionists will be much better off and there will be no peace in NI unless their wishes are respected as much as Nationalists
They're not the only ones in NI. And a lot of people like the current situation, including a lot of Unionist voters.
Nor are Nationalists the only ones in NI and 69% of Unionists want the NI Protocol scrapped. Only 21% of NI voters think there are no problems with it
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
I'm not sure that Johnson's rhetoric today about "ramping up lethal aid to Ukraine" is the vote-winner he thinks it is. The unpalatable truth is that most people are exhausted by the conflict and want it to go away.
'Lethal aid' is a rather disgusting phrase. Albeit that arming the Ukrainians is probably better than allowing them to collapse.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
Wow, that takes me back to old Oxford days (was a City Councillor there for a brief period). That was the handiwork of Bill Heine, crazee American guy, who founded the Penultimate Picture Palace off Cowley Road. Got to know him quite well. I think (hope) Bill is still alive.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
Which still does not give Nationalists more seats than Unionists and as Unionists will have won more votes the NI Secretary will still refuse a border poll. Especially as the Alliance also oppose a border poll at present
Which is fine because the Nationalists wouldn't win a border poll in the near future, and so the Secretary of State shouldn't call one.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
If the Irish Sea border is removed then Unionists would be prepared to restore the Executive.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
Invoking Article 16 is the opposite of making the status quo work. It would be Unionists causing disruption, showing that the status quo is broken and making the case for Unification of the Island.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
The owner doesn't want to get rid of it at all. He is the son of the man who put it there, Bill Heine, and is making an intellectual point which is that the point of the artwork was as an FU to the Council for refusing him permission for something else, so there is an absurdity about the Council being heavy handed in a different way several decades later by making it a heritage asset.
I do sort of get his point, but it is a bit of intellectual onanism to be honest.
Oxford City Council has now awarded the "Headington Shark" official listed status as a heritage asset against the wishes of its current owner and despite the artwork being erected in protest against its own planning policies.
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
Wow, that takes me back to old Oxford days (was a City Councillor there for a brief period). That was the handiwork of Bill Heine, crazee American guy, who founded the Penultimate Picture Palace off Cowley Road. Got to know him quite well. I think (hope) Bill is still alive.
No, he died a few years ago and the current owner is his son and heir.
Comments
Let's say he spent three years as an associate on 0.5m/year (which would be pretty exceptional), followed by another five as partner on 1.5m. Let's be generous and assume he then made 3m/year at Theleme.
That would be a seriously impressive haul - and easily in the top 0.5% of performers from a Goldman class. But still probably wouldn't get you to 30m in a decade.
'Recent opinion polls have left the DUP deeply worried. By significantly scaling back its Assy election candidate numbers, it's desperately trying to save the seats it holds. There's not one NI constituency where it has a really good chance of making a gain.'
Despite what HYUFD says I think he's wrong about the 'unionist block' (DUP+UUP+TUV) being certain to be ahead of nationalists (SDLP+SF) in terms of seats and both 'blocks' could easily end up level (although I admit the unionists are probably certain to get more votes than nationalists).
People before Profit are also nationalists as well.
Something like this is an entirely plausible scenario:
SF 23 (-4)
DUP 20 (-8)
Alliance 14 (+6)
UUP 12 (+2)
SDLP 12 (-)
TUV 3 (+2)
PBP 2 (+1)
Grn 2 (-)
Others 2
That's a $2bn hedge fund, so actually maybe $30m is far from impossible.
Help, not just any army
Help, you know I have to fight, help...
This is a fine example of the art. Very much worth posting, I think.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10648305/Rishi-borrowed-12-000-Kia-Rio-Sainsburys-worker-photo-op.html
- Cases - UP. R is falling all regions, though.
- In hospital - UP
- MV beds - UP
- Admissions - UP. Admission R is steady at around 1.1
- Deaths - UP.
There is a 0% chance I will vote Labour if Starmer is leader
1. Decide what your theme is going to be, considering what your audience would like and whether it's a sufficiently new angle to be interesting
2. Interview a bunch of relevant people
3. Select almost EXCLUSIVELY quotes that support your theme, maybe with one dissenting voice to pretend to show you're fair
I've never encountered a British journalist who pursued a story looking open-mindedly for both sides and presenting a nuanced picture. They feel that's a messy approach which will leave viewers confused and fail to cut through.
The only newspaper I've seen that goes out of its way to present both sides is USA Today. And, reluctantly, I admit the result is rather dull. But do we want entertainment, or do we want balanced information? I think we need the latter (and can have the former too if we want).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/24/oxfords-rooftop-shark-sculpture-gets-special-heritage-status/
Maybe the bloke who owns the place can give the Bristol statue topplers a ring.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-war-putin-at-risk-of-coup-by-russian-security-services-vm6qgxtnp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
It's OK until about 1900, though in fact it's difficult to go far wrong with buildings like Parliament or the Tower of London, but after about 1900 any taste goes out of the window. The modern buildings they have listed are often unbelievably awful. The shark isn't actually bad compared to some of them.
Blame the guys with the Novichok isn't a long-term strategy.
Most likely a putsch than a coup. So the madness may continue regardless.
However, several years of Unionists struggling to come to terms with a Nationalist as First Minister, or keeping the institutions collapsed to avoid the same, would do a lot to make unification with the Republic look like a solution to Unionist obstructionism.
If Unionists want to preserve the status quo - Northern Ireland as part of the Union - they have to find a way to make the status quo work.
Hence the UK government will also invoke Art 16 in due course.
If Russia and Ukraine are agreeing on something, the rest of us should probably pay attention.
So your answer to my question is - yes?
I suspect the UK Government is quite happy having control over NI affairs as it allows them to implement some of the things (abortion, a sane gambling act) the Unionists have spent years blocking
Mordaunt is Truss gone right. I want Truss to be good, but I put her in the same category as May - doesn't matter how many power outfits and photo-ops, there's a cocktail sausage missing from the picnic. There's something that just isn't functioning correctly.
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1506949213296414721
"National character is a slippery eel; the moment you think you have a grip on it, it’s gone. Its essence is fleeting; its shape shifts constantly and yet you know it when you see it, even if each person sees something different."
Beginning of a thread concluding that there is nothing in common - and on the way, commenting that "In the absence of a constitution or a bill of rights we have no foundational documents to refer to, beyond the Magna Carta, which was not even written in English."
Conclusion "This, ultimately, is what Britain’s political culture lacks: not so much an ideal or a dream, but a set of principles that could apply to a common future; the idea that Britain stands for something more than posterity and itself."
And that article expressly excludes the matter of the four nations.
Will be interesting to see what the other articles have to say.
Oh just saw he inherited it - I'm sure if he dislikes it that much the council will accept the building were he to gift it to them.
A few decades ago that was the accepted opinion of Georgian stuff. Which, tbf, is often built to hovel quality.
On the shark, this is mainly just the Telegraph flubbing; Oxford City Council does not have the power to award listed status.
It's probably just noted as interesting and local, which is fair enough. It becomes poisonous if the Council start compelling him to keep it if he does not want to.
I'd give it to the Council so they can set it to look as if it is just landing in the Isis.
NI is very much a fence you need to sit on when you reach high office.
In opposition, parties cast the net reasonably widely and look for a leader who they hope will look like an attractive option for PM in a couple of years or so. That means people like Blair and Cameron, who had never held any ministerial office, have a decent chance.
But, in office, a party choosing a new leader is choosing someone to step up as PM from day one with all that entails in terms of being ready. I cannot think of a single UK example of a party in Government choosing a leader (and therefore PM) who wasn't either a current or former holder of one of the great offices of state.
If the Conservatives were in opposition, Mordaunt would perhaps have a chance. But if there is a change of leader before then, I think people understate just how unlikely it is that it would be someone other than Sunak, Truss, or Hunt (or Patel in theory although I think the manner of her departure under May rules it out). The obvious answers are overwhelmingly the most likely ones here.
As it .. er .. says in the article
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ulster-union-northern-ireland-polling-100000007.html
I do sort of get his point, but it is a bit of intellectual onanism to be honest.