For the first time since December 6 – a poll without a LAB lead – politicalbetting.com
For the first time since December 6 – a poll without a LAB lead – politicalbetting.com
Westminster Voting Intention:LAB: 36% (-3)CON: 36% (+2)LDM: 12% (=)GRN: 6% (=)REF: 3% (+1)via @KantarPublic, 17-21 Mar(Changes with 21 Feb)
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However, you can't defy gravity for ever.
The car, of course, being a borrowed Kia.
But its definitely true that Mini's and Fiat 500s have since their introductions been a fashion statement for wealthier people who want a city car, both here and around the world. They have been incredibly successful playing off that image.
The reality is these days most car brands are owned by the same small number of mega-corps who share the tech and so your Skoda is really just a VW with tech from 2-3 years ago.
What I am saying is people with Sunak's money can afford any car, and image comes into it. If he owns a mini, I can see that, there has always been a fashionable element to that brand.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1506910201458438148
@IanDunt
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1h
I'm old enough to remember when Budgets took 48 hours to unravel.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt
Ouch!
Wasn’t even the Chancellor’s car.
Treasury now admitting it belongs to a Sainsbury’s employee.
Sometimes a picture does paint 1,000 grim words. https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1506979361097981965/photo/1
Does it have to end in negotiated ceasefire and Ukraine concessions? Could Russia have to slink away like from Afghanistan in military defeat?
My little threadette lives on, forlorn for at least one answer.
What realistically is going to happen in Ukraine in coming weeks?
It is just that he married into mega wealth.
Where as Call Me Dave, Mrs Cameron was the monied one and the much more successful one prior to him being PM. Didn't really hold him back.
However it would also mean the SNP would once again have the balance of power, so Starmer would likely have to allow indyref2 to become PM. Whereas other recent polls had Labour winning most seats, in which case Starmer could lead a minority government and ignore the SNP
https://samf.substack.com/p/losing-wars-and-saving-face?r=15i4j0&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I'm asking this as someone whose car of choice for the past 12 years has been a Mini....
What realistically is going to happen in Ukraine in coming weeks?
OK. I'll have a go.
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war.
- Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
Disgraced ex-SNP minister Derek Mackay named by Nicola Sturgeon when she was asked who signed off an ill-fated public ferry deal against expert advice. 2015 contract is now at least £143m over budget and no ferries have been delivered
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1506986911621132292
It just shows some of the absolutely mental levels of inertia in the public health space. We are still seeing new documents put out, in the space year 2022, two years into this damn pandemic saying that Covid is spread via droplets and surface contact!
The Russians should be forced back to their own borders, forced to pay reparations, and the people involved should be tried for war crimes. No other outcome should be considered.
Nobody knows.
Laurence Freedman has a long read on this and the TLDR is:
Ukraine won’t given in - it’s down to Russia to concede, and in turn it boils down to Putin’s personal motivations. Perhaps the West needs to give Putin a personal assurance.
9 mins on the untruths and distortions that Russia is spreading about 'Nazis' in Ukraine - including about the role of the Azov regiment of Ukraine’s National Guard. Produced by Mary Fuller, Michael Cox, Priyanka Deladia https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350…
https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1506988213637890048
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1506967115718397955?t=aKCQIQItnK8uXBRA0Rg0TQ&s=19
Chemical or biological weapons. Less bogeymanish and known to the general public, and easier to deny (look at the denialism over Assad's culpability for their use in Syria). In addition, the west does not have a set reaction to their use, or have similar weapons to immediately respond with AIUI.
Hence the use of chemical or biological weapons are something we cannot respond to in kind, and a nuclear retaliation would be OTT. And used right, they can be very useful.
Or alternatively Putin may go for a full mobilisation and war footing, and send hundreds of thousands of young Russians into Ukraine, killing many of them, but simply overwhelming the Ukrainian defences.
In tandem with this, expect a big attempt to split the sanctions regime against him - Germany seems an unsteady domino in that regard. The longer this goes on, the stronger sanctions should get. Sadly, they'll get weaker.
Putin is obviously talking nonsense, the whole of the Ukraine isn't in the grips of Nazism or anything close to it. But that report tries to rather white-wash this issue.
The Chancellor goes about in an armoured Jag. As you would expect.
Compared with the silly hoodie photos, it's a standard political photo, no?
(He better have paid for the fuel...)
This assumes that sending lots of troops gets you something. The lesson of history is that while numbers are useful, an army that doesn't have logistics sorted out simply doesn't work. The initial Russian deployment to Ukraine is their best troops and what they *thought* they could sustain.
The logistics have broken down for their 200K force. Adding more soldiers might well make things worse.
Interesting news that the US government now officially considers Russia guilty of war crimes based on large amounts of evidence.
That severely limits any room for them to help negotiate concessions to give Putin a way out.
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war.
- Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
The weapons are going to dry up soon as the absolutely prolifligate expenditure of them by Ukrainians is going to exhaust the donors' stocks. They are firing off 600 Javelin rounds/week. Even the might of the US can't sustain that.
If Labour get in power and need the SNP and have to allow an indyref2 that will be their problem principally and for Labour to then win it.
The more people vote Tory the less there is any chance of the SNP as Kingmakers
Chemical weapons, can be militarily effective only in a very limited ways:
- in actual fighting, heavier than air CW can be more efficient than conventional methods for clearing out basements in building-to-building urban combat or
- to deny territory, when combined with other chemicals to make them sticky and persistent (particularly effective in disrupting logistics by contaminating major hubs, such as ports, rail junctions, crossroad and depots).
Again, CW are not a game-changer in open field modern combat against prepared troops. Of course, they can be used to great effect against unprotected and unforewarned civilian populations.
He is now 5 properties Rishi
So looks like he was "partner" level and above for about 8 years.
God knows what will happen if he enters the 2024 campaign behind in the polls.
And what you say about the symbol is a mischaracterisation of how it was reported, IMO. They certainly didn't claim that 'nobody thinks it dodgy' - they reported that claim with what seemed to me appropriate scepticism.
Potentially losing one ship today won't have helped.
According to the Scottish Sun:
Alex Salmond personally intervened to help save the Ferguson yard in Port Glasgow days before the 2014 indy vote - persuading tycoon and adviser Jim McColl to take it over.
And this week, spending watchdogs Audit Scotland told how the following year, the SNP Government overruled bosses of public-owned ferries operator CalMac to award a major ships contract to Ferguson.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/8614026/nicola-sturgeon-derek-mackay-ferry-deal/
I make that that he was alleged to have signed it off in 2015. Or as Audit Scotland puts it (same link):
in October 2015, agency Transport Scotland - which Mackay was in charge of - “informed CMAL that following due consideration, Scottish ministers were aware of the risks but were content to proceed to contract award”
He was Transport Minister - a Junior position.
More enquiring to be done here.
Period of Putin doubling down, combined with increased Western disunity over both how much and what military aid to give Ukraine, and what to do about energy sanctions on Russia.
Massive continued suffering in Ukraine, but no buckling, even as new Russian reinforcements arrive and barrage of population areas intensifies.
Followed by: Ukrainians get hands on counter battery equipment, better AA kit, anti-ship kit and drones. After a stutter, Ukrainians again make slow progress at retaking land, and diminishing Russia's air and artillery capacity.
At which point, either:
- massive Western pressure on Ukraine to accept 'compromise' (i.e. give up land and rights) in order to reach an end to the war.
- Putin escalates to WW III. Everyone loses, but some more so than others. China wins.
In reality, no-one knows. There are too many ways things could go from now, any prediction is a crap shoot.
I don't think, with respect to Ukraine conceding is that they should be prepared (if they appear to be 'winning' which I think they are) to accept anything less than acknowledge the Crimean loss.
Any Western pressure should be called out for what it is. Greed on the part of the West (Germany in particular).
Else what sort of signal does it send out? Nuclear armed states can invade a non-nuclear neighbour and after a month of sanctions, the nuclear armed state can force land to be ceded, money to be paid or whatever they want because no one can be bothered with sanctions anymore.
It would be a straight signal to China to invade Taiwan. It would be a straight signal to Russia itself to puppet the 'stans' whilst waiting a bit before coming back to nibble something from Finland or have another go at Ukraine.
Ukraine, if put under pressure by the West to compromise, should say, "Fine, they can have the lot then. See how you like having Russia right up against Poland, Romania and Moldova again."
A friend of mine used to work in a small group at a large company. Their role was to work out how to cost-reduce and speed up delivery of various weapons systems if there was a major war. He isn't there any more, but I wonder if such plans are being dusted off.
That's a serious worry, which is why the US is warning of 'serious consequences' should they be used.
https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1506931087981051910
Russian forces are no longer just stalled outside the capital of Kyiv, it appears they're on their back foot, digging in to what looks like a defensive posture:
https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-russia-troops-month-03-24-2022#where-things-stand-a-month-into-the-war-according-to-the-pentagon
Here's a longer video of Boris at the NATO meeting, you can see how selective the negative clip being circulated is. Worth sharing widely.
https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1506977806500220928
Whether Russia responds to that with dozens of cruise missiles into Poland, etc, I don't know.
The reality is a lot behind the scenes grown-ups for each country do loads of leg work. That's really the important thing. All the who in what spot, who shook somebodies elses hand for longest, is just chest beating nonsense.
Sweden just announced they're sending another 5-6k, as did we. Germany claims to have run out.
Even at 600 a week they'll last long enough to take out a huge amount if Russian kit. The go to site has nearly 1800 confirmed Russian equipment losses, with the bulk of that wheeled and tracked vehicles.
The Javelin production line exists but all the companies that go into feeding it are waiting for the funding to be guaranteed in place before they commit to ramping it up.
There seems to be some institutional inertia in America as the funding has been budgeted but no contracts have been signed yet.
Put simply, CW aren't any good at defeating military formations.
What they ARE good for is killing defenceless civilians. THIS might force an opponent to the table, but it'll be because you are literally engaged in state sanctioned murder of women and children.
I'd like to hope we wouldn't accept the terrible scenes that would come out should Russia decide to go down that very evil path.
I'd also not overstate the direct Patterson effect. His career plainly ended badly, but he was not a personally unpopular man in his constituency. The narrative of the campaign was more about Partygate.
Look, Maldon being very "safe" is a double edged sword - it improves the chances of a hold but also raises the stakes. If there was a by-election in, say, Bridgend, and the Tories lost then that's disappointing for them but they say "marginal seat, mid-term, these things happen". But lose in Maldon (as in North Shropshire) and that puts the fear of God into Tory MPs with a good five figure majority, and is much more problematic for the PM. He could survive losing a Bridgend... but a Maldon would be curtains.
Now Ben Wallace might have been wrong.
Or maybe the 6000 aren't coming anytime soon, but I am not sure the UK government would make such a dodgy commitment in such a crucial time (this isn't a matter of trying to play fast and loose with some budget figures).
Instead they just get (pardon me) ars*licking, and amateur PR operatives.
If it is going to be a worthwhile thing, it has to get a hell of a lot better.