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The decline and decline of Rishi in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

The Betdata chart shows how those considered by punters as being in with a chance of becoming next PM have moved in the betting over the past three months.
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Johnson wouldn't do that surely?
Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?
Credit: Dave Keating
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1506756726904786948
Regardless, it's smart politics from the Shadow Chancellor, as it sets up the government to take the blame if inflation is still high next year.
I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.
https://publicappointments.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/appointment/chair-post-office-limited/
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1506911042613522434
The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.
This Budget was as good as it could have been for the Tory membership. Retired and wealthy shielded. Pain loaded on scrounging layabouts, bone idle workers and the feckless youth.
A Budget for people like us, not people like them.
He could still win the leadership with it.
Not sure about an election.
So unless you know better..,
PM: FLSoJ
CoE: JRM
Home Sec: Mad Nad
Foreign Sec: Fizzy Lizzy
#blessed #avengersassemble #everythingisawesome
Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.
The Conservatives shouldn't be in despair mode yet, but if things don't veging to improve by summer '23 they probably ought to be.
In Ken Follet's Century Trilogy one of the Soviet characters notes that the character from the USA talks about 'the voters' in the same fearful and furtive tones as the Soviet officers talk about Stalin. The observation, while fictional, has stuck with me.
The issue is there is very little they can do about it.
This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).
Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.
Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.
It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better
I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.
LNG tankers used to take 2 years from keel laying to operation. Wonder if the South Koreans will have a go ay beating that number.....
Supply trains - anyone have an idea of excess capacity in US trains supply the LNG capable ports?
Lots of 316 stainless to be welded. 316 (and I think 304) are the austenitic stainless steels that have an interesting property of getting stronger at LNG temperatures.... Buy shares in stainless steel makers?
F1: still no negative test for Vettel. He might yet race, but Hulkenberg is still on hand if need be.
ETA shame we cannot bet on next Chancellor of the Exchequer.
There may be a politician who can sell a message of "a lot of the UK's wealth since the 80's has been phoney, and the buy now pay later bills have arrived as final demands", but it ain't BoJo.
A huge amount of borrowing to spend money would have an affect. And the huge amount of borrowing we already have means we're blowing tens of billions every year on debt interest payments.
But I do agree with you. They are rabbits in the headlights. Completely clueless. Rachel Reeves has a golden opportunity here.
Why was he miked up?
She's probably better off just saying "Labour would raise a squillion-trillion-billion-bajillion" for "vital public services". About as sensible as I could hear from the supposed Opposition.
So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?
*blushes*
ETA but *modestly*
And quite right too.
A spectacularly good call.
He’s not any better than the rest of them and that is showing.
The Tories are well and truly out of good ideas and talent. The decent MPs like Stewart all got kicked out.
None of the favourites imo.
Wallace or Baker perhaps. Javid just maybe. For an outsider I think Coffey could be best suited.
Infosys
6,486 Tweets
LOL
Tory MP: “[Rishi] genuinely thinks that social security is rubbish... it acts as a barrier to virtuous behaviours and he’s serious about ‘work not welfare’ message which he wants to be able to use in future campaigns”
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-tories-loyalty-tested-welfare-taxes/
And the line "Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop." is wishful thinking at best. Commodity and fuel prices were already surging before the war. The rate of growth may slow but I can't see big drops, especially with both production and physical supply chains disrupted and broken.
It won’t work.
Laying 2024 or later for next election at 1.1x
Backing No majority in 2022 Senate elections around 6
Laying Pence and Haley for Republican nominee at 14 and 11.5
BJ and friends had the opportunity; they chose not to take it.
1997. don't know whether you were alive/dead/undead in those days. Now, Starmer is no Blair but then Johnson is no Major either, and I stand astonished at the relative innocence of what we thought of as tory sleaze then vs what we have now.
Johnson is safe because there is no better Conservative option. That should terrify the Tories and anyone who cares about the future of this country.
I get the impression wokeism agitates a small amount of people on either side of the debate. Most people are just meh about it.
You're absolutely right, it annoys a few very loud people but most people genuinely don't really see what the fuss is about, in my experience
And they have talent - just not in economic roles.