The decline and decline of Rishi in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

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The decline and decline of Rishi in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com

The Betdata chart shows how those considered by punters as being in with a chance of becoming next PM have moved in the betting over the past three months.

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rottenborough

1st. Unlike Sunak soon.

rottenborough

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Scott_xP

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Nadine for chancellor

Scott_xP

Rishi’s media round going from bad to worse this morning… https://twitter.com/davidgilmantv/status/1506898036210995203

eek

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

OnlyLivingBoy

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Ha ha. I think that is clearly the game plan. Sunak will pay a heavy price for not wielding the knife when he had his chance. JRM has always fancied himself as Chancellor I think.

ozymandias

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Big_G_NorthWales

Listening to Rachel just now, she seems to think inflation is only for this year and will be less next year

Carnyx

FPT

IshmaelZ said:

rottenborough said:

"the year ahead will be the worst anybody can remember. It will be catastrophic, appalling, and could destroy the Conservative Party and its reputation for economic competence for a generation."

Heath - telegraph

Seems JRM was right about partygate being froth. Good old fashioned economic incompetence will do for bojo.

Don't agree. One can have both at the same time, It'll be like the good old honeycomb mould that one used to get in packets (my great-aunt loved it). When mixed with, I think, milk it separated out into a dense lower jelly and an upper layer of blancmange froth. Economy and parties at the same time.

IanB2

That's still a solid position, at the front of the field. Especially since I feel Starmer is too short; it remains the case that the Tories would be foolish to go into another campaign with the clown at their head.

MattW

An interesting graph showing how air traffic has shifted:



Credit: Dave Keating
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1506756726904786948

Carnyx

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Doesn't mean the north won't want what the Brexiters promised. Especially if Mr Johnson is filmed opening lots of nice trains and the like in London. Crossrail opening could be pretty counterproductive politically.

LostPassword

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to Rachel just now, she seems to think inflation is only for this year and will be less next year

Well, that might be true. If fossil fuel prices were to ease just a tad from where they are now, then by this time net year they could be contributing a negative amount to the overall inflation figure.

Regardless, it's smart politics from the Shadow Chancellor, as it sets up the government to take the blame if inflation is still high next year.

Carnyx

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Ha ha. I think that is clearly the game plan. Sunak will pay a heavy price for not wielding the knife when he had his chance. JRM has always fancied himself as Chancellor I think.

Wonder who pointed out to Sky that bit about Infosys?

MaxPB

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

IanB2

OT, anyone fancy being chair of the Post Office; things can only get better?:


https://publicappointments.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/appointment/chair-post-office-limited/

Theuniondivvie

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

Scott_xP

Rishi Sunak is usually polite but that “thank you” at the end of his @BBCr4today had the weariness of a burglar finally allowed to leave a police station after watching CCTV evidence of them ransacking a house.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1506911042613522434

Alistair

MattW said:

An interesting graph showing how air traffic has shifted:



Credit: Dave Keating
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1506756726904786948

Wonder what Armenia and Georgia are charging in overflight fees.

northern_monkey

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

dixiedean

On the other hand.
This Budget was as good as it could have been for the Tory membership. Retired and wealthy shielded. Pain loaded on scrounging layabouts, bone idle workers and the feckless youth.
A Budget for people like us, not people like them.
He could still win the leadership with it.
Not sure about an election.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to Rachel just now, she seems to think inflation is only for this year and will be less next year

That’s what Rishi, the OBR, and BoE think.

So unless you know better..,

Dura_Ace

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Nadine for chancellor

The Pritster is shortly going to end up as 'Gruz 200' in Russian military terms. So we could end up with:

PM: FLSoJ
CoE: JRM
Home Sec: Mad Nad
Foreign Sec: Fizzy Lizzy

#blessed #avengersassemble #everythingisawesome

ozymandias

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.

Stuartinromford

IanB2 said:

That's still a solid position, at the front of the field. Especially since I feel Starmer is too short; it remains the case that the Tories would be foolish to go into another campaign with the clown at their head.

True, though the worse things look for the government, the less attractive the job looks.

The Conservatives shouldn't be in despair mode yet, but if things don't veging to improve by summer '23 they probably ought to be.

moonshine

When are the bacon deciding who to issue fines to for all the covid era criminality in govt?

moonshine

MaxPB said:

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

Will oil be the same or lower? Some very informed people are telling me to expect otherwise.

dixiedean

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.

Similar to the GFC. The other lot bankrupted us.

TheScreamingEagles

History tells you governments generally don’t survive when overseeing the biggest fall in living standards since the war.

Theuniondivvie

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

TheScreamingEagles

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Nadine for chancellor

The Pritster is shortly going to end up as 'Gruz 200' in Russian military terms. So we could end up with:

PM: FLSoJ
CoE: JRM
Home Sec: Mad Nad
Foreign Sec: Fizzy Lizzy

#blessed #avengersassemble #everythingisawesome

Suddenly Vlad nuking us doesn’t seem like the worst thing that could happen to us.

ozymandias

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

Ah, a sensible retort then. I note the lack of any useful comment.

Unpopular

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Electorates are never wrong, and they are never grateful. They'll want the jam they were promised.

In Ken Follet's Century Trilogy one of the Soviet characters notes that the character from the USA talks about 'the voters' in the same fearful and furtive tones as the Soviet officers talk about Stalin. The observation, while fictional, has stuck with me.

Stuartinromford

TheScreamingEagles said:

History tells you governments generally don’t survive when overseeing the biggest fall in living standards since the war.

And as we saw in 2016, if enough people are unhappy enough with their lot, it doesn't matter if the alternative is incoherent bibble. "Give them a kicking" wins, as FPTP advocates like to remind us.

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

History tells you governments generally don’t survive when overseeing the biggest fall in living standards since the war.

This is the issue - overseeing. Not preventing. Even your post sort of accepts it. That's not good enough.

StillWaters

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

SandyRentool

After Eat Out to Help Out, Rishi is now launching Eat Out at a Soup Kitchen.

DecrepiterJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

History tells you governments generally don’t survive when overseeing the biggest fall in living standards since the war.

Or during the war, as that nice Mr Churchill discovered.

Gallowgate

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

IshmaelZ

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

Ah, a sensible retort then. I note the lack of any useful comment.

it works. Perhaps you are too young to remember 1997?

NerysHughes

MaxPB said:

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

Exactly, if people are not spending then inflation will fall rather quickly.

Malmesbury

MaxPB said:

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

There will definitely be oversupply of gas from US wells re-opening. The problem will be transporting it and throughput of the supply trains.

LNG tankers used to take 2 years from keel laying to operation. Wonder if the South Koreans will have a go ay beating that number.....

Supply trains - anyone have an idea of excess capacity in US trains supply the LNG capable ports?

Lots of 316 stainless to be welded. 316 (and I think 304) are the austenitic stainless steels that have an interesting property of getting stronger at LNG temperatures.... Buy shares in stainless steel makers?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: still no negative test for Vettel. He might yet race, but Hulkenberg is still on hand if need be.

ozymandias

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Like the wealthy homeowners constituting a very large part of Labour's London electorate? Bring it on. The impoverishment of Julian and Gemima in their £2m Islington town-house would be a wonderful thing.

StillWaters

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Yes, but that’s not something that can be done in a few weeks. Major structural change takes thought and planning.

Malmesbury

NerysHughes said:

MaxPB said:

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

Exactly, if people are not spending then inflation will fall rather quickly.

More that the response to various shortages will "overshoot" and there will be a glut of various things, probably.

DecrepiterJohnL

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:

rottenborough said:

Heath warns in Telegraph that when the voters start to get seriously pissed off with the state of their finances and the economic mess and turn on the government, Johnson might make Sunak the fall guy who takes the blame.

Johnson wouldn't do that surely?

Nadine for chancellor

The Pritster is shortly going to end up as 'Gruz 200' in Russian military terms. So we could end up with:

PM: FLSoJ
CoE: JRM
Home Sec: Mad Nad
Foreign Sec: Fizzy Lizzy

#blessed #avengersassemble #everythingisawesome

Won't happen. Boris's appointments are transactional, or perhaps better seen as human shields, so while your quad has women to defend Boris against charges of sexism, and Brexiteers in case he is accused of backsliding, it has no-one replacing Rishi and Priti as proof Boris is not racist. Kwasi went to Eton: just saying.

ETA shame we cannot bet on next Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Stuartinromford

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

Except Johnson's whole pitch is that Britain's Brilliant Potential has been held back by Doomsters and Gloomsters and Remoaners and all the UK needed was him to light the blue touchpaper and whoosh we would be Top Nation again.

There may be a politician who can sell a message of "a lot of the UK's wealth since the 80's has been phoney, and the buy now pay later bills have arrived as final demands", but it ain't BoJo.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 1983, could any government actually prevent what's happening, though?

A huge amount of borrowing to spend money would have an affect. And the huge amount of borrowing we already have means we're blowing tens of billions every year on debt interest payments.

Gallowgate

ozymandias said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Like the wealthy homeowners constituting a very large part of Labour's London electorate? Bring it on. The impoverishment of Julian and Gemima in their £2m Islington town-house would be a wonderful thing.

Labour’s London electorate largely rents, but yeah sure. Hit Julian and Gemima hard.

Taz

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

Unless they are holding back so they can do more next year ahead of the election in a cynical bit of electioneering.

But I do agree with you. They are rabbits in the headlights. Completely clueless. Rachel Reeves has a golden opportunity here.

MarqueeMark

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.

Anyone asked Rachel what that "windfall" tax on BP and Shell is going to amount to when they write off their investments in Russia?

RochdalePioneers

Incidentally, that staged photo of Rishi filling up his Kia Rio at Sainsburys.

Why was he miked up?

IshmaelZ

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is usually polite but that “thank you” at the end of his @BBCr4today had the weariness of a burglar finally allowed to leave a police station after watching CCTV evidence of them ransacking a house.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1506911042613522434

"Hero to zero" is an irritating little rhyme, but not completely without real-world applications.

DecrepiterJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1983, could any government actually prevent what's happening, though?

A huge amount of borrowing to spend money would have an affect. And the huge amount of borrowing we already have means we're blowing tens of billions every year on debt interest payments.

Yes but how much of that is funny money transfers between the Treasury and Bank of England?

ozymandias

MarqueeMark said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.

Anyone asked Rachel what that "windfall" tax on BP and Shell is going to amount to when they write off their investments in Russia?

There's too many decimal places in that calculation for Rachel.

She's probably better off just saying "Labour would raise a squillion-trillion-billion-bajillion" for "vital public services". About as sensible as I could hear from the supposed Opposition.

RochdalePioneers

SandyRentool said:

After Eat Out to Help Out, Rishi is now launching Eat Out at a Soup Kitchen.

Not that the soup kitchens and food banks are in a good place. Inflation means people have less money to spend on food which means less donations.

IshmaelZ

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

Ah, a sensible retort then. I note the lack of any useful comment.

it works. Perhaps you are too young to remember 1997?

Ozymandias is over 3000 years old

I despair.

mickydroy

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

kjh

MaxPB said:

I think something people haven't yet grasped is that our huge inflation rate could very quickly turn into deflation. By next year we'll have an oversupply of a lot of base components, oil and gas prices will be the same or lower and demand in some countries will still be depressed compared to pre-COVID.

I do wonder whether the OBR has priced this scenario into their forecasts.

I was thinking the same.

Big_G_NorthWales

Taz said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

Unless they are holding back so they can do more next year ahead of the election in a cynical bit of electioneering.

But I do agree with you. They are rabbits in the headlights. Completely clueless. Rachel Reeves has a golden opportunity here.

The mail this morning was quite supportive but really not happy with the lack of support for the lower paid and those on benefits

IshmaelZ

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

Summat about taxing non-doms and evil "rich" people probably and being "fair". Whatever the hell "fair" is.

Well, "fair" is a reasonably well understood term, though we can beef it up with fancy expressions like "distributive justice" if you want. To define it by a counter-example, it's what the top 1% of people having more wealth than the bottom 50%, is not. Not difficult.

noneoftheabove

Gallowgate said:

ozymandias said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Like the wealthy homeowners constituting a very large part of Labour's London electorate? Bring it on. The impoverishment of Julian and Gemima in their £2m Islington town-house would be a wonderful thing.

Labour’s London electorate largely rents, but yeah sure. Hit Julian and Gemima hard.

It is most curious how people outside London assume Londoners want the obscene inflated house prices we suffer. Most of us would like them to be affordable!

CorrectHorseBattery

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Theuniondivvie

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

I think the wise sage is present, but modesty no doubt will prevent him from claiming credit..

IshmaelZ

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

ahem

*blushes*

ETA but *modestly*

Fishing

This certainly shows how the Sunak bubble was caused, not by any ability or competence on his part, but just by being able to give away £400 billion of our grandchildren's money. Now he has to claw some of it back, his bubble is well and truly burst.

OnlyLivingBoy

ozymandias said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Like the wealthy homeowners constituting a very large part of Labour's London electorate? Bring it on. The impoverishment of Julian and Gemima in their £2m Islington town-house would be a wonderful thing.

Ha ha 1980s tabloid resentment called, they want their cliche back. Good luck buying a house in Islington for £2mn - even in our bit of New Cross houses are going for over £1.5mn (I own one of them, hooray). And Islington is full of City types these days who are probably Tories, if they vote at all. Labour's voters in London are probably mostly renters. But sure, a wealth or land tax makes a lot of sense. The Tories will never bring one in though because protecting inherited wealth is their raison d'etre.

Luckyguy1983

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

There aren't two alternatives, rinse poorer citizens or rinse slightly richer ones. There's taxation of capital gains. There is taxation of companies and corporate entities, there is cutting spending, there is even the option of strategic tax/regulation cutting to stimulate activity and therefore overall tax take. There's attempted taxation of the very rich, or its opposite, attempted attraction of the very rich to spend more. There's also sale/disposal of Government assets/property, cancellation of expensive programmes. There's alot.

CorrectHorseBattery

Scott_xP said:

Rishi’s media round going from bad to worse this morning… https://twitter.com/davidgilmantv/status/1506898036210995203

He doesn’t look or sound very well.

dixiedean

Theuniondivvie said:

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

I think the wise sage is present, but modesty no doubt will prevent him from claiming credit..

Nope.
And quite right too.
A spectacularly good call.

CorrectHorseBattery

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to Rachel just now, she seems to think inflation is only for this year and will be less next year

That’s what Rishi, the OBR, and BoE think.

So unless you know better..,

Damn it and their attack on Rachel Reeves was looking so good too

ozymandias

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Starmer. And well, the Labour front-bench.

DecrepiterJohnL

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

I'm not quite ready to dismiss Rishi. There are a lot of lower-paid workers, including in the red wall, who will see more money as a result of the NIC threshold rise. Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop. And the paradox is that if Boris sees Rishi as weakened, there is no need to demote him and risk a leadership challenge from a new Chancellor.

darkage

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Yes, but that’s not something that can be done in a few weeks. Major structural change takes thought and planning.

The strategy will simply be to increase the size of the wealthy homeowner class, and enable access to it. In many ways that is what the policy of enriching retired people does, it can flow down to younger generations, to provide access to wealth. The structural problem is that, in parts of the country, inequality has become so extreme that social mobility is effectively prohibited, with generations cut off from access to property wealth. Whilst the idea that wealth should be protected for its own sake, occasionally advocated on here, is morally repugnant; so is the idea that the answer to all of this is by way of enforced redistribution. The answer always goes back to ideas about equality of opportunity.

OnlyLivingBoy

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

CorrectHorseBattery

Fishing said:

This certainly shows how the Sunak bubble was caused, not by any ability or competence on his part, but just by being able to give away £400 billion of our grandchildren's money. Now he has to claw some of it back, his bubble is well and truly burst.

I said this over a year ago.

He’s not any better than the rest of them and that is showing.

The Tories are well and truly out of good ideas and talent. The decent MPs like Stewart all got kicked out.

noneoftheabove

Stuartinromford said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

Except Johnson's whole pitch is that Britain's Brilliant Potential has been held back by Doomsters and Gloomsters and Remoaners and all the UK needed was him to light the blue touchpaper and whoosh we would be Top Nation again.

There may be a politician who can sell a message of "a lot of the UK's wealth since the 80's has been phoney, and the buy now pay later bills have arrived as final demands", but it ain't BoJo.

Of the Tory leadership contenders who fits that bill?

None of the favourites imo.

Wallace or Baker perhaps. Javid just maybe. For an outsider I think Coffey could be best suited.

OnlyLivingBoy

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi’s media round going from bad to worse this morning… https://twitter.com/davidgilmantv/status/1506898036210995203

He doesn’t look or sound very well.

Silver spoon poisoning?

Nigelb

IshmaelZ said:

Farooq said:

IshmaelZ said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

Ah, a sensible retort then. I note the lack of any useful comment.

it works. Perhaps you are too young to remember 1997?

Ozymandias is over 3000 years old

I despair.

You've been looking on Boris' works ?

IshmaelZ

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LOL

Luckyguy1983

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi’s media round going from bad to worse this morning… https://twitter.com/davidgilmantv/status/1506898036210995203

He doesn’t look or sound very well.

Silver spoon poisoning?

Unlikely, silver is quite good for you.

ozymandias

IshmaelZ said:

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LOL

Yay. We all know from experience Elections are won and lost on what happens on Twitter.

Scott_xP

Thinking back to this from last year.

Tory MP: “[Rishi] genuinely thinks that social security is rubbish... it acts as a barrier to virtuous behaviours and he’s serious about ‘work not welfare’ message which he wants to be able to use in future campaigns”
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-tories-loyalty-tested-welfare-taxes/

RochdalePioneers

DecrepiterJohnL said:

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

I'm not quite ready to dismiss Rishi. There are a lot of lower-paid workers, including in the red wall, who will see more money as a result of the NIC threshold rise. Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop. And the paradox is that if Boris sees Rishi as weakened, there is no need to demote him and risk a leadership challenge from a new Chancellor.

I'd question the line "There are a lot of lower-paid workers, including in the red wall, who will see more money as a result of the NIC threshold rise." - will be wholly outstripped by the cost of living surge

And the line "Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop." is wishful thinking at best. Commodity and fuel prices were already surging before the war. The rate of growth may slow but I can't see big drops, especially with both production and physical supply chains disrupted and broken.

Taz

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

Pretty much seems to be. ‘We blew the economy but look, cross dressers who fetishise being a woman in womens changin rooms. Labour supports that. Vote Tory.’

It won’t work.

noneoftheabove

Some bets I like at the moment:

Laying 2024 or later for next election at 1.1x
Backing No majority in 2022 Senate elections around 6
Laying Pence and Haley for Republican nominee at 14 and 11.5

CorrectHorseBattery

Taz said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

Pretty much seems to be. ‘We blew the economy but look, cross dressers who fetishise being a woman in womens changin rooms. Labour supports that. Vote Tory.’

It won’t work.

I remain deeply sceptical that wokeism is the big vote winner that the Tories think it is.

dixiedean

RochdalePioneers said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

mickydroy said:

Some wise sage posted on here, I forget who it was, that Hartlepool was peak Lying Buffoon, he was spot on, and we are long past peak Sunak that's for sure, the only way is down for the pair of them, even if Labour dont have the answers, I would love to see this motley crew, given a huge kick in, at the polls

I'm not quite ready to dismiss Rishi. There are a lot of lower-paid workers, including in the red wall, who will see more money as a result of the NIC threshold rise. Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop. And the paradox is that if Boris sees Rishi as weakened, there is no need to demote him and risk a leadership challenge from a new Chancellor.

I'd question the line "There are a lot of lower-paid workers, including in the red wall, who will see more money as a result of the NIC threshold rise." - will be wholly outstripped by the cost of living surge

And the line "Fuel and commodity prices should fall after peace in Ukraine, and inflation is forecast to drop." is wishful thinking at best. Commodity and fuel prices were already surging before the war. The rate of growth may slow but I can't see big drops, especially with both production and physical supply chains disrupted and broken.

The lack of a harvest in Ukraine. And possibly in Russia, which is pretty much nailed on, even if there was peace tomorrow won't do owt for food prices.

MattW

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

There aren't two alternatives, rinse poorer citizens or rinse slightly richer ones. There's taxation of capital gains. There is taxation of companies and corporate entities, there is cutting spending, there is even the option of strategic tax/regulation cutting to stimulate activity and therefore overall tax take. There's attempted taxation of the very rich, or its opposite, attempted attraction of the very rich to spend more. There's also sale/disposal of Government assets/property, cancellation of expensive programmes. There's alot.

I'd say it's too late for any of those to have a material impact.

BJ and friends had the opportunity; they chose not to take it.

LostPassword

Anyone mentioned the detail on defence spending? In current prices, is planned to be lower in 2023-24 than in 2022-23.

IshmaelZ

ozymandias said:

IshmaelZ said:

Trending in United Kingdom
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6,486 Tweets

LOL

Yay. We all know from experience Elections are won and lost on what happens on Twitter.

You're very attack dog this morning, have you been bitten by @BluestBlue? Because he had the gig when boris looked like an immortal God-Emperor and it was all plain sailing.

1997. don't know whether you were alive/dead/undead in those days. Now, Starmer is no Blair but then Johnson is no Major either, and I stand astonished at the relative innocence of what we thought of as tory sleaze then vs what we have now.

SouthamObserver

Sunak has spent the last two years building a brand rather than doing the hard political yards. His lack of experience is now very clear to see.

Johnson is safe because there is no better Conservative option. That should terrify the Tories and anyone who cares about the future of this country.

OldKingCole

Taz said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

Pretty much seems to be. ‘We blew the economy but look, cross dressers who fetishise being a woman in womens changin rooms. Labour supports that. Vote Tory.’

It won’t work.

You missed out 'Labours old leader, supported by the current one, doesn't like Israel'.

Applicant

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

Theuniondivvie said:

ozymandias said:

eek said:

Fpt

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NerysHughes said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! Struggling to think of a recent budget that was as painfully tone deaf as that one. He starts off with a swagger of PM-in-waiting and sits down to his own press going "are you taking the piss son?"

He's so brutally done nothing for the poorest not because he's scum but because he doesn't understand - witness the painful phone-in he did with Ian Dale afterwards on LBC. At the same time he's burned £3bn on a fuel duty cut that benefits nobody and just highlights to the still angry just how much of their money they are paying for the basics.

And the worst bit of all? Not remotely costed. Slams in with NIC rise. Then a cut. Income tax cut - in 2 years. Fuel duty going back up in 12 months. Nothing beyond the immediate will happen as he says and the Treasury know it - he may as well have borrowed Simon Clarke's colouring book and crayons.

Any other government could get away with it. Humility. We're doing our best in extraordinary circumstances. But not this government. What we will get instead is sneering condescension. We managed to see some Big Dog faces on the front bench yesterday that are already all over Twitter. They don't care, they don't get it, and saying "if you are poorer its your fault because everyone is better off actually" is a poor message to win an election on.

Good morning

I would largely agree with you and the absence of help for those in real need was appalling

I can only assume that he has calculated that there is worse to come and he wanted to retain funds for further interventions but he has provided an open door for his critics

This is an opportunity for labour but they need to lay out how they would deal with this crisis going forward

A one off windfall tax does not address the future, and I genuinely do not know their policies on any of this

Questions for labour are as they are opposed to NI increases and are not in a position to increase standard rare tax from 19% in April 24 where do they raise the money for the NHS, public sector pay, and now their much heralded increase in defence spending

I would support a wealth tax but this needs working on and any suggestion to apply CGT to owner occupied homes would be the equivalent of the poll tax

However, I believe all this is indicating a good GE 24 for labour and after yesterday my vote is available if they can convince me on their tax and spend proposals

The Government has spent large parts of the last 2 years paying people to stay at home. It was hardly going to be a give away budget as the Government has been giving money to millions of people during Covid.

You entirely miss the point

Where was the compassion for all those less fortunate then ourselves and struggling on universal credit, or the disabled and disadvantaged

They received a 3.1% upgrade on their benefits when inflation is 8% plus and rising

How is it entirely missing the point, the Government funded large parts of the Country to stay at home in probably the most generous scheme in the world during the pandemic and well as introducing a raft of other measures to benefit those less well off including the £20 per week rise in UC. To say this Government lacks compassion is bizarre

The Governemnt has tried to address the long term issue with Social Care, and yesterday reduced this impact on the lower paid with an increase in the NI threshold.

Where is all this money coming from that you want to be given away?

Churchill discovered in 1945 that winning the war wasn’t enough to remain in power.

Bozo is going to discover the same - yes there is no money but back in 2019 Bozo promised the north money and where is it?

In case you haven't been paying attention a lot has happened since 2019. Dear God.

Yebbut the red wall going blue was a one time deal, BJ had his chance. It’s pretty clear that folk at the bottom of the pile (as usual) are going to suffer the worst over the next few years and the Tories haven’t even reached the end of the beginning stage of the revitalisation of the north.

And Labour's plan is.......um....anyone?

The finest electoral plan known to man, we are not these c*nts who obviously despise you and you hate.

You mean, the same as Kinnock 1992?

Taz

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Taz said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

Pretty much seems to be. ‘We blew the economy but look, cross dressers who fetishise being a woman in womens changin rooms. Labour supports that. Vote Tory.’

It won’t work.

I remain deeply sceptical that wokeism is the big vote winner that the Tories think it is.

It won’t be. It shows they have run out of ideas. ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ as the old saying goes.

I get the impression wokeism agitates a small amount of people on either side of the debate. Most people are just meh about it.

CorrectHorseBattery

Taz said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Taz said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

As of yesterday, I think Rishi’s chances of winning an election are similar to Johnson’s.

So with the Tory secret weapon dead, who do they have now?

Their gameplan is Brexit Woke Corbyn Brexit if I recall correctly. I predict an edifying and dignified Tory election campaign.

Pretty much seems to be. ‘We blew the economy but look, cross dressers who fetishise being a woman in womens changin rooms. Labour supports that. Vote Tory.’

It won’t work.

I remain deeply sceptical that wokeism is the big vote winner that the Tories think it is.

It won’t be. It shows they have run out of ideas. ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ as the old saying goes.

I get the impression wokeism agitates a small amount of people on either side of the debate. Most people are just meh about it.

Are you keeping well Taz? Thank you for your kind comments of late.

You're absolutely right, it annoys a few very loud people but most people genuinely don't really see what the fuss is about, in my experience

Applicant

StillWaters said:

Gallowgate said:

StillWaters said:

northern_monkey said:

Brother in Law's just texted me. Not a happy bunny. Petrol station near his house in Notts put petrol up 6p this morning, wiping out Sunak's short-lived cut.

The government is like a rabbit in the headlights. It seems incapable of recognising what's coming. Bonkers. It's going to be brutal. And it's going to hit everyone, including a lot of the Tory pensioner base. And they don't seem to care.

I suspect they know what is coming.

The issue is there is very little they can do about it.

This was always the risk with QE (which in defence of the BoE they recognised and pulled back as early as they could).

Fundamentally there is very little/no money. We’ve overspent for a generation. Most of government borrowing in recent years has been from the BoE. And printing money in an inflationary environment fuels the problem.

Basically we had weak structural position + crisis spending for 2 years + external shock and massive energy price shock.

It’s awful. It’s going to be awful. And there is fuck all the government can do to make it better

I wonder whether Rishi should have been upfront and not tried to pretend he can do something he can’t.

The wealth is going to have to be re-extracted from wealthy homeowners. Sorry tories.

Yes, but that’s not something that can be done in a few weeks. Major structural change takes thought and planning.

Surely everything can be solved by a windfall tax punishing oil and gas companies for recovering from the pandemic? That's what Reeves said yesterday.

Fishing

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Fishing said:

This certainly shows how the Sunak bubble was caused, not by any ability or competence on his part, but just by being able to give away £400 billion of our grandchildren's money. Now he has to claw some of it back, his bubble is well and truly burst.

I said this over a year ago.

He’s not any better than the rest of them and that is showing.

The Tories are well and truly out of good ideas and talent. The decent MPs like Stewart all got kicked out.

They have plenty of good ideas - they just don't use them because Johnson is terrified of unpopularity.

And they have talent - just not in economic roles.

OnlyLivingBoy

Luckyguy1983 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi’s media round going from bad to worse this morning… https://twitter.com/davidgilmantv/status/1506898036210995203

He doesn’t look or sound very well.

Silver spoon poisoning?

Unlikely, silver is quite good for you.

Even in the quantities that Sunak must have consumed it?