As long as MPs rate VI ahead of Approval ratings the PM is safe – politicalbetting.com

darkage said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

Leon said:

Perilous moment for the world

Lucky we don't have a fukwit in charge.

Oh, wait...

You are not helping

We need to unite in this time of great peril

No thanks, not behind Boris. The guy is an arse and a liability. At a time like this we need a serious PM, Boris will undoubtedly make things worse.

Although with one or two exceptions, we are in fact United in thinking Johnson is a tosser who needs to be removed and replaced by somebody honest, sane, coherent and reasonably intelligent.

And I agree but that is not happening while this immediate threat is hanging over Europe

On the contrary, @MaxPB is right it makes it much more urgent to get rid of him. Just as the fall of Norway made it imperative to get rid of Chamberlain. You need serious politicians for these times, not buffoons and serial failures.

I have a great feeling of bitterness when being told to 'come together' or 'unite' behind a bad leader. Boris definetly shouldn't be allowed to use the Ukraine situation to dodge partygate.

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

No you wouldn’t

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

No you wouldn’t

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

No you wouldn’t

Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.

I would demand a VONC if he even considered that

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

rottenborough said:

Biden is playing a blinder in this crisis.

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3

Salisbury could have led to World War III. It was an act of war.

It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.

But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3

Salisbury could have led to World War III. It was an act of war.

It didn't because Theresa May isn't stupid.

But it does show that Putin's judgement is very seriously out of kilter with safety.

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.

Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

No you wouldn’t

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.

Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote

You're utterly delusional.

If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.

Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote

You're utterly delusional.

If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.

darkage said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess

Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.

Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote

You're utterly delusional.

If a second referendum is the price it takes to see the payroll vote get to keep their bums in Ministerial jobs rather than relegated to the Opposition benches, then MPs aren't going to let Labour be the ones who sign up to the second referendum instead of them.

And to be honest indyref2 is winnable for the union anyway

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

So all these letters many of them are sending their constituents, sharing their shock and outrage, are just more lies, putting the MPs down on the same level of immorality as the leader?

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

Thankfully every other past or present Tory member here seems to respect democracy more than you do, so we can dismiss your views as fairly eccentric and weird.

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

Tory MPs don't care too much about Boris drinking outside in a lockdown as long as Labour don't get too big a lead.

Tory MPs do care about the Union and Tory MPs despise the SNP.

Most Tory MPs would prefer a German style grand coalition with Starmer Labour than any deal with the SNP, as would I. Though the SNP would almost certainly vote down any Tory government and only deal with Labour anyway given its central belt core vote

And, to be fair, the despising is pretty mutual.

Now, Indyref 2 is a heck of a prize, if Johnson can deliver it. And it is the sort of mad gesture Boris might make if sufficiently cornered.

But propping up a Tory government? It would be a brave move by the SNP.

Gallowgate said:

@HYUFD I doubt red wall tories give two shits about Scotland leaving

Leon said:

stodge said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

"Ever closer union" was picturesque rhetoric, behind which "federalism by stealth" was the actual policy. It didn't need to be that way, but those who pushed for it knew exactly what they were doing (and still are). It has been a political disaster that will take decades to unravel and the euro-federalists are as much to blame as the brexiteers.

The problem was our membership was always half-hearted. We could just about go along with a notion of free trade though we sometimes baulked at that in terms of the impact on our traditional trading links with the Commonwealth.

Over 40 years, we never came close to accepting the EEC or the EU and in the end the illogicality of our membership became too much for all sides. We protested over the finances even though we were and are one of the world's most powerful economies. We were happy to take European money to improve the infrastructure of our poorer peripheries but when the even poorer nations of first southern and then eastern Europe joined, it seemed we (and the Germans) were always left to pay the bill.

We had two choices - either embrace the European ideal fully - Euro, Schengen etc or leave. Our "neither owt nor nowt" membership frustrated everyone and I suspect it's beneficial for all we go our separate ways for now.

My iPhone is now desperately trying to autocorrect Brexiteer (the most popular version by an order of magnitude, according to Google) to Brexiter, the preferred form for Remoaners, as the latter seems less romantic and flattering. I believe the Guardian and FT have both banned "Brexiteer" for that reason

Is Apple run by a europhile? Has Clegg extended his tentacles from Facebook?

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

darkage said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess

Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3

We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime

Bollocks.
The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.

And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.

The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.

Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

No you wouldn’t

Oh yes I would. I can forgive Boris most things but I cannot and will not forgive allowing the SNP indyref2.

I would demand a VONC if he even considered that

Its odd. You're happy to give away NI but practically psychotic when it comes to Scotland.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.

The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.

Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.

The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.

Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.

On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway

If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.

The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.

If the Tories are just short on 315 seats they would of course do a deal with the DUP again not the SNP and invoke Article 16 and rip up the NIP not grant the SNP indyref2

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.

The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.

Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.

On current polling it is more likely Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories in a hung parliament than the other way round anyway

If Labour are 80 seats clear of the Tories this is all moot and Labour are in Downing Street.

The scenario being discussed is the Tories falling just short, eg 315 seats. In that scenario, Labour would be about 80 behind.

If the Tories are just short on 315 seats they would of course do a deal with the DUP again not the SNP and invoke Article 16 and rip up the NIP not grant the SNP indyref2

Not if as the polls suggest the DUP lose their seats and the SNP are needed instead. If the DUP aren't sufficient, but the SNP are, then IndyRef2 is the logical price to pay.

kle4 said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
·
1m
U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess

Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.

All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3

We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime

Bollocks.
The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.

And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.

Carnyx said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Assuming Russia invades, trumped up pretext or not, how do PBers think it will play out?

Swift Ukrainian capitulation, Russian puppet installed? Long drawn out war of attrition, Russia bogged down?

What sanctions will be invoked and will they have any impact on Russia? And what will be the effect on the global economy?

Global recession. Cold War. Possible new Vietnam for Putin if he tries to take the whole country, the Ukrainians will resist fiercely, at least in Kiev and west of the Dnieper

Real risk of full blown NATO-Russia conflict, but Putin must know he would lose that, unless it goes nuclear then everyone dies, including the Chinese: who won't be happy

Perilous moment for the world

Unless Putin goes beyond Ukraine and invades Poland, there is no chance of a full blown Nato-Russia conflict

You're saying he will meekly accept any sanctions like a good little boy?

I think not. The risk of him doing something silly in response is actually quite high.

He might bring much of the old USSR back in his orbit, there is no evidence he wants to retake all of Eastern Europe as that would lead to World War 3

We are as near today to WW3 then we have been in your lifetime

Bollocks.
The 1980s wasn’t exactly all peace, love and understanding.

And judging by the attitude of his posts, HYUFD is at least 170 years old.

More like 509 years, assuming he was 21 and of age to say anything political at all, even if it was only to express unwavering support for Henry Tudor in his resolute exit from the EU, sorry the RC Church.

TimS said:

kle4 said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

BNO News
@BNONews
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U.S. official says 40 to 50% of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine are in "attack positions" - Reuters

He risks the end of his regime if he presses the 'go' button.

Bogged down in a terrible street by street war with an enemy literally fighting for its homeland. Massive sanctions. No chance of selling oil or gas to the west for years.

Does he feel a lucky punk tonight?

We are in Guns of August Territory. Putin has got all his ducks in a line, and all his troops in place, doing nothing now looks like a massive defeat and retrenchment, and his military will resent the embarrassing farce, and that is not Putin's style. He is an expansionist Tsar

He will likely attack Ukraine in some form, if he is not already doing so. If forced to put odds on it, I'd say it is 85% probable. And yes I plucked that out of my butt, so feel free to counter with an equally vacuous guess

Presumably the easiest solution for Putin is to do some kind of formal 'liberation' of one of the already disputed Russian speaking areas. Can argue he has won, probably won't meet any resistance, and the west will do very little.

All seems a bit unnecessary, but making it extra clear those areas are as gone as Crimea even if they are not formally absorbed into mother Russia, but have Russian troops and officials there to 'protect' it, seems both achievable and the sort of thing no one outside Ukraine will kick up more than words about.

I think we’re about to find out whether Putin really is a 4D chess master or the same old same old, the narcissist drunk on hubris who used to consult his officials but stopped doing so after being convinced of his own genius.

Most erstwhile geopolitical geniuses choose the latter route. That, or years of unchallenged power turn them a big potty.

I would hope, though I don’t pretend to know what’s on their mind, that faced with any realistic risk of this escalating to something a bit more direct and nukey, the Russian generals would tell Vlad to piss off.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nico679 said:

If Putin does invade it would make more sense to just go into the east under the guise of protecting Russian speakers.

This gives him his hard man win for the Russian public and serves notice to the west . A complete takeover of Ukraine I think is the least likely option .

Putin and sense are not a good fit and Biden's warning tonight was stark for all Ukraine

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

Not necessarily, people thought the Tories would ruthlessly get rid of Theresa May after she lost the majority, yet they didn't. This new breed of Tory MP has lost its cunning and ruthlessness. The deal would be done and they'd release carefully worded statements of disagreement in principle but nothing that actually commits them to giving up the whip.

The difference is that in 2017, May had lost the majority but she didn't have any other major political flaws.

The latter cannot be said of the incumbent...

Applicant said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Applicant said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

MaxPB said:

MikeSmithson said:

MaxPB said:

pigeon said:

On topic: agree.

Although I repeat the warning I offered the other day: if anyone's expecting a Conservative implosion in 2024, even under Johnson, then I fear they're in for a terrible disappointment. Turfing the Tories out is eminently achievable, but they're not going to take a 1997-style hammering. Labour will have to perform brilliantly to win any kind of majority.

Yes agree, it's going to be more like 1992, Starmer is no Blair. He doesn't reach into the Tory vote anywhere near as much as Blair was able to. My three red lines from earlier today would have easily been met by Blair. He's not Boris, he'd commit to status quo on the EU question and he'd already have dealt with the gender rights mentalists and told them to get fucked. Instinctively Blair was in tune with middle England in a way that Starmer isn't. That's why the new methodology from Opinium doesn't rate Labour. Starmer isn't winning voters like me, unhappy with Boris but not convinced that Labour will be able to resist the insane leftist culture warriors.

I think he's also severely lacking in retail offers to middle England, targeting foreign tax resident ownership of property is a very easy retail offer that everyone understands. Targeting residential landlords for tax is something with which everyone other than the landlords will agree. Cutting some kind of headline tax like NI and "putting money back in your pocket" is the kind of thing Blair would do to flummox the Tories who seem committed to a high tax, high spend, low yield economy.

What worries me is that Starmer will come up short, Boris stays on as PM in a minority government and then the idiots in the Labour party will say "see we tried dull centrism and it didn't work, welcome back Jez" and because of Tory incompetence and fatigue in 2029 we end up with a hard left Labour government.

If the Tories get fewer than 318 seats then there is no chance of a Tory majority government. The SNP will eat into the CON 6 seats in Scotland, the LDs will take at least 20 seats with similar profiles to C&A which leaves LAB with an easy target.

Boris will be desperate enough to stay in power and give the SNP a second indyref. As we've seen Tory MPs will take no action to get rid of him and just quietly go along with it.

Bonkers. Boris will never grant indyref2 and if he did he would be deposed within minutes by Tory MPs. HYUFD knows the Tory party better than you

With no Scottish MPs at stake and an SNP landslide in Scotland? And a 14 year gap between 2014 and some 2028 referendum (timed to bind the SNP to not deposing him). The Tories are spineless. They've shown over the last few days that a few junior payroll MPs can scare them into line. The whole party is rotten and the political calculation will be made to jettison Scotland so Boris can stay as PM.

Absolutely not, as a Tory member and branch chairman I would demand Boris be removed tomorrow if he allowed indyref2. There would be uproar in the party. Partygate is one thing and he has the benefit of the doubt for that from me for now but allowing the SNP indyref2 would be unforgiveable treachery.

I would march on Downing Street and drag him out myself. I would even prefer a grand coalition with Starmer than a Tory PM doing a deal with the SNP for indyref2

But it would be up to Tory MPs and they've proved they're all spineless stooges. Your marches and protests would fall on deaf ears.

In the hypothetical under consideration, Boris would just have lost a majority. The mood would be very different to the current one, where all the electoral evidence that we have is that he is a winner.

In the hypothetical scenario under consideration Boris would have just won the election (coming first) with about 80 seats more than Labour and a clear majority of seats in England.

The mood would be to consolidate the victory, not let the opposition who'd lost it take Downing Street from second place.

Once the horse trading begins, so-called principles go out the window. The Tories objection to IndyRef2 would vanish faster than Nick Clegg can say tuition fees.

If the Tories have ~80 seats more than Labour, it's 2010 redux and a rainbow coalition of all the losers isn't plausible anyway, surely?

Cyclefree said:

I have just watched the documentary "Berlin 1945" on iPlayer - in 3 parts. No narration other than at the very start and end. It is film from the time and actors reading extracts from the diaries of Berliners and Americans, Russians and others. It covers the period from April 1945 to the end of the year.

Quietly moving. The last 5 minutes had me weeping. Do watch if you can.