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Andrew totally dominates the front pages – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    interesting - contradicts the narrative of the last couple suggesting a shrinking lead.
    Lib Dems we’re not on 7. I think it’s 9-11.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    " ... but also massively reduce the numbers of students going to university ..."

    I'm in some sympathy .... but you surely realise a Labour Govt cannot & will not do this.

    Because it will mean some serious redundancies in the Universities and it will mean some Universities going bankrupt.

    Which party controls almost all the University seats?

    There is such a thing as Realpolitik :blush:
    That's not necessarily a straightforward argument - it's possible that the Labour party does not in fact benefit from having its voters artificially concentrated in locations like university dorm areas. Worse, elections in term time also means a large number of their potential activists are are bottled up together in a seat they're going to easily win anyway.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited February 2022
    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/
  • CaptainMattCaptainMatt Posts: 42
    edited February 2022

    Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ready for Russia cutting off gas supplies and is 'now on the safe side for this winter'. She adds: 'One of the main lessons we have already learnt is we must diversify our energy sources and we must get rid of the dependency of Russian gas.'

    Ursula Von der Leyen also says EU sanction would go well beyond previous asset freezes/travel bans. She suggests exports of hi-tech components 'for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us' would be cut off. 'Our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this.'


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493903160632659972

    Glad to see this. I feel the world did not react strongly enough in 2014 and now it's really make or break in terms of facing down Vlad. We cannot afford another weak reaction or we could potentially be looking at WW3.

    Not only that but with China ogling Taiwan as well. So so important IMO...

    So the removal of any dependency on Russia, and the threat of sanctions that would absolutely pulverise Russia into the ground is vital, even if it costs Europe and the US $$...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564
    edited February 2022

    The Grand Jury idea is similar to the Green Party concept of ctizens' assemblies - get 100 people together to discuss an issue and brief them really well so they understand the issue in depth. I see the attraction but it scares me as sometimes the 100 will by random selection be weighted to people who happen to have one or another obsession, in the same way that an opinion poll with a sample of 100 often throws up really weird results.

    But the integral committee idea is good - I agree that my hypothetical asylum-seeker or ex-prisoner doesn't really need to be a voting member. Select Committees do try to invite a variety of opinions, but they tend to be establishment types, including the more serious NGOs. For example, a hearing on slaughterhouse conditions might well invite me, as an expert on animal welfare, but they'd be very unlikely to invite a slaughterhouse worker or even have any idea how to look for one.
    IMO Grand Juries and Citizens' Assemblies are far too open to manipulation by appointed 'experts', and may only offer a selection of an approved set of opinions. Randomly selected citizens may not have the skills to resist such manipulation.

    The real Grand Juries ("should this person be charged") only aiui exist properly in the USA now, where to me they resemble a posse going out on the hunt with the Public Prosecutor in the role of Sheriff.

    There are reasons why other countries have moved on to a better system of determining whether a prosecution is tenable. Another backwards aspect of the USA legal system, for me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,097
    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.
  • MattW said:

    Peers family's have been responsible for preserving large areas of the country over centuries, and developing other parts of it.

    Consider various Great Estates, or the more historic parts of London.

    You wear a hat?
    And who did all the work that allowed that preservation or development to take place? Are the descendents of those people any less rooted in the heritage that was created through their labour? No. They have no less stake in this country than all these descendents of plunderers, Royal bastards and arse-lickers. It's absurd that people allow themselves to be talked into accepting this kind of second class status.
  • Mr. W, next you'll be saying you don't trust the Committee of Public Safety.
  • Glad to see this. I feel the world did not react strongly enough in 2014 and now it's really make or break in terms of facing down Vlad. We cannot afford another weak reaction or we could potentially be looking at WW3.

    Not only that but with China ogling Taiwan as well. So so important IMO...

    So the removal of any dependency on Russia, and the threat of sanctions that would absolutely pulverise Russia into the ground is vital, even if it costs Europe and the US $$...
    What "hi-tech components" does Leyen mean? Pretty sure Vlad will be able to source what he needs from his mates in China.
  • Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ready for Russia cutting off gas supplies and is 'now on the safe side for this winter'. She adds: 'One of the main lessons we have already learnt is we must diversify our energy sources and we must get rid of the dependency of Russian gas.'

    Ursula Von der Leyen also says EU sanction would go well beyond previous asset freezes/travel bans. She suggests exports of hi-tech components 'for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us' would be cut off. 'Our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this.'


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493903160632659972

    Is Germany
  • Eabhal said:

    Not a great day for the monarchy. Just need Anne and Edward for a full house.

    William is going to have his work cut out.

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
  • MattW said:

    Peers family's have been responsible for preserving large areas of the country over centuries, and developing other parts of it.

    Consider various Great Estates, or the more historic parts of London.

    You wear a hat?
    PS damn right I wear a hat in this kind of weather and with my hereditary baldness. And I won't be removing it for any in-bred Norman parasite!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    The leaders of France and Germany tried to push Ukraine to comply with the Russian spin of the Minsk Agreements during their recent visits to Kyiv, sources in the Ukrainian government and foreign emissaries told the Kyiv Independent.


    https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673

    The other option is to go back to first principles. How did we end up with a House of Lords and a House of Commons? I believe this was so that there was a forum for the concerns of different groups in society to be discussed. There was a recognition that the Lords could not be represented by the Commons and the Commons could not be represented by the Lords.

    Today we operate on an implicit assumption that we all have common interests which can be represented equally with a single vote apiece by representation in the Commons. Is this the case? Perhaps we should explicitly create different chambers, with different franchises, to represent different interest groups.

    An honest approach might be to have a House of Big Business - 100 members appointed by the boards of the FTSE100 companies. It would save them the trouble of having to buy peerages.

    A House of the Young could balance a House of the Old.

    It might be better for some of the political disputes we have given institutional form, so that the necessary debates can happen more openly.

    Not sure you're serious, but...I don't think that institutionalising different interests is a good idea as it will reinforce the sense of division. Also, preoccupations change over time - issues that seemed seminal differences look irrelevant 20 years later. For example, a House of Leavers and a House of Remainers might well reflect important current divisions, but in some years would look ridiculously archaic,
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ready for Russia cutting off gas supplies and is 'now on the safe side for this winter'. She adds: 'One of the main lessons we have already learnt is we must diversify our energy sources and we must get rid of the dependency of Russian gas.'

    Ursula Von der Leyen also says EU sanction would go well beyond previous asset freezes/travel bans. She suggests exports of hi-tech components 'for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us' would be cut off. 'Our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this.'


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493903160632659972

    Given her past history, this will be an embargo of exports *to* Russia of

    - Natural gas
    - Vodka
    - Caviare

    She will then sue someone to cover up the fuck up - probably the Ukrainian Government.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,080
    edited February 2022

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    tbh I am not 100 per cent convinced that sheep jokes are very funny. Also, isn't Harry peripherally involved in this new royal cash for honours malarkey?

    ETA also it is rugby so who cares?
  • I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Gas
  • Weird. Why on earth would JCVI be passing around unpublished advice to the devolved nations? Something strange going on in Westminster politics that seems bad when you’re talking about health advice for kids.

    https://twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1493913253046632448?s=21

    Unless Nippy is jumping the gun again…..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    I believe it’s true.

    The question is why they take the Russian side, and seek to pressure Ukraine.
    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    MattW said:

    Peers family's have been responsible for preserving large areas of the country over centuries, and developing other parts of it.

    Consider various Great Estates, or the more historic parts of London.

    You wear a hat?
    Preserving it for themselves during the enclosures and clearances by throwing my ancestors off the land they had tilled for centuries.

  • Weird. Why on earth would JCVI be passing around unpublished advice to the devolved nations? Something strange going on in Westminster politics that seems bad when you’re talking about health advice for kids.

    https://twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1493913253046632448?s=21

    Unless Nippy is jumping the gun again…..

    Wales has
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Endillion said:

    That's not necessarily a straightforward argument - it's possible that the Labour party does not in fact benefit from having its voters artificially concentrated in locations like university dorm areas. Worse, elections in term time also means a large number of their potential activists are are bottled up together in a seat they're going to easily win anyway.
    Oh, I am not saying it benefits Labour ...

    Just that it will be hard for Labour to do because it will be directly harming its own supporters (by and large).

    Given where we are, a substantial reduction in students going to University will mean some significant redundancies in the University sector.
  • Also some good news that seemed to slip under the radar - all covid regulations in Northern Ireland gone as of 5pm yesterday

    Including the 5 days self isolation for positive cases which apparently never was a regulation in the first place, just guidance, but no one knew because "no one asked" - lol

    Maybe we should get rid of the NI Executive and have ministers agree decisions by sending letters to each other - seems to lead to better outcomes such as this :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    Weird. Why on earth would JCVI be passing around unpublished advice to the devolved nations? Something strange going on in Westminster politics that seems bad when you’re talking about health advice for kids.

    https://twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1493913253046632448?s=21

    Unless Nippy is jumping the gun again…..

    The suggestion that is is embargoed due to Parliamentary recess - anyone comment on that?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,561
    Interesting nugget from this BBC article.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/60392598

    Storm Eunice, scheduled to hit Friday, does not actually exist yet, it is due to form later this afternoon.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    To be fair they need to spread the support of the home nations around as it would I'm sure feed grievances if the royal family all supported England. Princess Anne I believe is a Scotland supporter as another example. Imagine being in a family where everyone had to support a different home nation! The Queen of course stays above it all by not overly supporting anyone and just congratulating when they do well.
  • tbh I am not 100 per cent convinced that sheep jokes are very funny. Also, isn't Harry peripherally involved in this new royal cash for honours malarkey?

    ETA also it is rugby so who cares?
    Years of abuse from the Welsh at us humble English rugby union fans has taken its toll.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564
    edited February 2022
    Some people are trying a little too hard on the Boris guilt by association, perhaps:

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1480249429525516290
  • What "hi-tech components" does Leyen mean? Pretty sure Vlad will be able to source what he needs from his mates in China.
    Well... that is a good question. I hope it's something important. Personally I would go for the jugular and to hell with the costs. Pretty much cut them off from the world. CANNOT risk 1938. But like you say, need to find things that China can't bail them out over
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,537
    Foxy said:

    Preserving it for themselves during the enclosures and clearances by throwing my ancestors off the land they had tilled for centuries.

    We hang the man and flog the woman
    Who steals the goose from off the common.
    But leave the greater villain loose
    Who steals the common from the goose.

    Doing my family history I'm somewhat puzzled as to the origins of my mothers maiden name, a very unusual one. Appears to originate in the East Midlands.
    There is a Stately Home of that name in Leicestershire, and there was once a village of the same name nearby. However, it appears that the village was demolished in the 18th C to enlarge the gardens of the Hall.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564

    Not sure you're serious, but...I don't think that institutionalising different interests is a good idea as it will reinforce the sense of division. Also, preoccupations change over time - issues that seemed seminal differences look irrelevant 20 years later. For example, a House of Leavers and a House of Remainers might well reflect important current divisions, but in some years would look ridiculously archaic,
    I like the sound of that.

    We could save cash by having Liz Truss as Speaker of both :smile:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,517
    AlistairM said:

    To be fair they need to spread the support of the home nations around as it would I'm sure feed grievances if the royal family all supported England. Princess Anne I believe is a Scotland supporter as another example. Imagine being in a family where everyone had to support a different home nation! The Queen of course stays above it all by not overly supporting anyone and just congratulating when they do well.
    We all know who she supports...


  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Years of abuse from the Welsh at us humble English rugby union fans has taken its toll.
    Given the wealth of the English Rugby Union, the arrogance of its supporters, and the self-importance of its players, the superlative mediocrity of the England team has given great pleasure .... to the Welsh, Scots, Irish & French.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Madness. 11% UK average house price growth in 2021.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2021#:~:text=UK house prices increased by,from 10.7% in November 2021.

    Covid may have lead to people more greatly prioritising their homes financially. But we should have been trying to stop this inflation. At some point a leader is going to have to spell out that we cannot fix our economic problems in the UK unless we sort out housing.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076

    The Grand Jury idea is similar to the Green Party concept of ctizens' assemblies - get 100 people together to discuss an issue and brief them really well so they understand the issue in depth. I see the attraction but it scares me as sometimes the 100 will by random selection be weighted to people who happen to have one or another obsession, in the same way that an opinion poll with a sample of 100 often throws up really weird results.

    But the integral committee idea is good - I agree that my hypothetical asylum-seeker or ex-prisoner doesn't really need to be a voting member. Select Committees do try to invite a variety of opinions, but they tend to be establishment types, including the more serious NGOs. For example, a hearing on slaughterhouse conditions might well invite me, as an expert on animal welfare, but they'd be very unlikely to invite a slaughterhouse worker or even have any idea how to look for one.
    As far as I understand this idea of a Grand Jury or Citizen's Assemblies is a major part of (political) anarchism, and is not too far away from the pre October Revolution idea of a Soviets.

    I'm sure that you know more about this subject than me, so I'd be interested to hear your opinion.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Because any settlement is better than war for France and Germany.

    If you selling out other people, then who cares what it costs *them*?

    Bit like Rotherham - it's not like anyone the prosecutors, police or social workers cared about was involved.
    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    The suggestion that is is embargoed due to Parliamentary recess - anyone comment on that?
    Further:

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e4.htm?s_cid=mm7107e4_w

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/omicron-wave-was-brutal-on-kids-hospitalization-rates-4x-higher-than-deltas/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,575
    edited February 2022

    Given the wealth of the English Rugby Union, the arrogance of its supporters, and the self-importance of its players, the superlative mediocrity of the England team has given great pleasure .... to the Welsh, Scots, Irish & French.
    3 world cup finals in the last two decades, if you call that mediocre, I wonder what you call winning one of them.

    I'm sure it pales in comparison to the number the Welsh, Scots, Irish, and French have all won.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    edited February 2022

    Madness. 11% UK average house price growth in 2021.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2021#:~:text=UK house prices increased by,from 10.7% in November 2021.

    Covid may have lead to people more greatly prioritising their homes financially. But we should have been trying to stop this inflation. At some point a leader is going to have to spell out that we cannot fix our economic problems in the UK unless we sort out housing.

    General inflation has been high, so the real terms increase is less.

    A 25 yr mortgage now costs the same as about one did back in Jan 1977 (Much higher real terms capital, way lower interest rates, & inflation stripped out).

    Chart adjusted for inflation, interest rate + 1.5%.

    https://rpubs.com/Pulpstar/boe

    I'll do one adjusted for wages, and another for nominal values at some point.

    The introduction of mortgage age max going to 75, various "springboard" products and the frankly ludicrous max wage multiple of edit - almost 7 (7 times higher, 5 times lower) 7 times joint income being offered https://www.onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk/mortgage-affordability/mortgages-at-7-times-income/ means the show will continue for a while yet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    It's amazing how music can transport you back to better and happier times and away from the shite of today. I'm not usually so backwards looking, yet I'm starting to think peak UK was the 90s. Since then it's all been down hill and poor long term planning is behind all of it, politicians of all stripes have been about winning tomorrow's vote and screwing the next generation in the process.

    Sadly, I don't see how this stops, maybe we should have let COVID run riot among the over 70s and removed their stranglehold over UK life.
  • William is a disgrace, his brother should be King, this picture tells you why.



    At a world cup match! FFS! William was cheering for the Welsh, and England will have this sheep botherer foisted upon us.
    Just like you his brother is clearly too dumb to realise the Royal Family are there for Wales just as much as for England. After all his father is Prince of the bloody place.

    Anyway, we are all aware that you would much prefer President Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896
    AlistairM said:

    To be fair they need to spread the support of the home nations around as it would I'm sure feed grievances if the royal family all supported England. Princess Anne I believe is a Scotland supporter as another example. Imagine being in a family where everyone had to support a different home nation! The Queen of course stays above it all by not overly supporting anyone and just congratulating when they do well.
    Exactly, the Queen is Queen of the whole UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. She is neutral when they play each other
  • A lot of “shooting the messenger” in the replies:

    Babcock boss warns Rosyth yard could move to England if Scots vote Yes…

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1493855651856064514
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    3 world cup finals in the last two decades, if you call that mediocre, I wonder what you call winning one of them.

    I'm sure it pales in comparison to the number the Welsh, Scots, Irish, and French have all won.
    I think maybe you need to factor in the wealth and resources of each country's Rugby Union ...

    Still, If you're happy ... we are certainly all happy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,575
    edited February 2022

    Just like you his brother is clearly too dumb to realise the Royal Family are there for Wales just as much as for England. After all his father is Prince of the bloody place.

    Anyway, we are all aware that you would much prefer President Boris.
    Boaty McBoatface tells you this country wouldn't vote for President Boris Johnson, we'd end up with President Brian Blessed, which would be awesome.

    Just imagine the President's speech every Christmas Day delivered by Brian Blessed.

    But I prefer elected rulers, take back control from our unelected rulers.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    11% house price inflation?

    This is crazy. A direct transfer of wealth from from young workers without asset-rich parents, to the the asset rich older generation - and their offspring. Our economic system is morally bankrupt.

    Come on labour. Scrape the barnacles off the boat and consolidate the workers vote. Go into the next election offering a massive income tax cut, paid for by a proper property tax.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,158
    Earlier than usual but here is the line up for local by-elections tomorrow. Very unusually there are 4 Independents defences; in Allerdale, Newark and Sherwood, Nottinghamshire, and West Devon. There are also 2 Conservative defences ( NE Lincolnshire and North Northamptonshire), a Labour defence in Bristol, a Lib Dem defence in Oadby and Wigton, and a Green defence in Mid Suffolk.
  • MaxPB said:

    It's amazing how music can transport you back to better and happier times and away from the shite of today. I'm not usually so backwards looking, yet I'm starting to think peak UK was the 90s. Since then it's all been down hill and poor long term planning is behind all of it, politicians of all stripes have been about winning tomorrow's vote and screwing the next generation in the process.

    Sadly, I don't see how this stops, maybe we should have let COVID run riot among the over 70s and removed their stranglehold over UK life.

    Nah. The 90s were just as bad. The last PM who actually cared about running the country rather than simply winning elections was Thatcher.

    And everyone knows the last decades of decent music were the 65-85. It really has been all downhill since then.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MattW said:

    IMO Grand Juries and Citizens' Assemblies are far too open to manipulation by appointed 'experts', and may only offer a selection of an approved set of opinions. Randomly selected citizens may not have the skills to resist such manipulation.

    The real Grand Juries ("should this person be charged") only aiui exist properly in the USA now, where to me they resemble a posse going out on the hunt with the Public Prosecutor in the role of Sheriff.

    There are reasons why other countries have moved on to a better system of determining whether a prosecution is tenable. Another backwards aspect of the USA legal system, for me.
    IIRC Grand Juries in the US return a bill of indictment in well over 90% of cases. It’s something of a news item when a Grand Jury declines to indict in even a not-so-prominent case.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    ping said:

    11% house price inflation?

    This is crazy. A direct transfer of wealth from from young workers without asset-rich parents, to the the asset rich older generation - and their offspring. Our economic system is morally bankrupt.

    Come on labour. Scrape the barnacles off the boat and consolidate the workers vote. Go into the next election offering a massive income tax cut, paid for by a proper property tax.

    NI on pensions and a state pension taper to zero based on other income. That will legitimately raise billions and cut tens of billions out of spending and allow us to be more generous to less wealthy pensioners who maybe didn't have careers that afford them retirement income of £30-40k+ per year.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    ping said:

    11% house price inflation?

    This is crazy. A direct transfer of wealth from from young workers without asset-rich parents, to the the asset rich older generation - and their offspring. Our economic system is morally bankrupt.

    Come on labour. Scrape the barnacles off the boat and consolidate the workers vote. Go into the next election offering a massive income tax cut, paid for by a proper property tax.

    A 10% increase in house prices corresponds to a 1.3% drop in birth rates, further compounding our demographic problem.

    Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2846173

    Though really you don't need a source, it's just common sense. If people can't afford the space, or ever afford to get out of the rental trap, they can't afford kids.
  • Boaty McBoatface tells you this country wouldn't vote for President Boris Johnson, we'd end up with President Brian Blessed, which would be awesome.

    Just imagine the President's speech every Christmas Day delivered by Brian Blessed.

    But I prefer elected rulers, take back control from our unelected rulers.
    Nope. President Boris is nailed on. He would be in a run-off with Corbyn. You just can't stand to admit it.
  • MaxPB said:

    NI on pensions and a state pension taper to zero based on other income. That will legitimately raise billions and cut tens of billions out of spending and allow us to be more generous to less wealthy pensioners who maybe didn't have careers that afford them retirement income of £30-40k+ per year.
    I paid more tax in “tax haven” Guernsey on my pension than I do in the U.K…..
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349

    Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is ready for Russia cutting off gas supplies and is 'now on the safe side for this winter'. She adds: 'One of the main lessons we have already learnt is we must diversify our energy sources and we must get rid of the dependency of Russian gas.'

    Ursula Von der Leyen also says EU sanction would go well beyond previous asset freezes/travel bans. She suggests exports of hi-tech components 'for which Russia is almost entirely dependent on us' would be cut off. 'Our sanctions can bite very hard and the Kremlin knows this.'


    https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493903160632659972

    It's a tad worrying that it takes a crisis like this to learn such a lesson. I would have thought that it has long been obvious that we cannot trust the Russian government.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,201

    3 world cup finals in the last two decades, if you call that mediocre, I wonder what you call winning one of them.

    I'm sure it pales in comparison to the number the Welsh, Scots, Irish, and French have all won.
    A lucky Johnny Wilkinson drop goal has been dined out on at the bars of England for the last 19 years.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    eristdoof said:



    As far as I understand this idea of a Grand Jury or Citizen's Assemblies is a major part of (political) anarchism, and is not too far away from the pre October Revolution idea of a Soviets.

    I'm sure that you know more about this subject than me, so I'd be interested to hear your opinion.

    Not sure I do! Anarchism is historically interesting since it combines elements of right-wing individualist philosophy (no central state telling us what to do) with bottom-up far-left thinking - workers' control of their factories, etc. I don't think many people nowadays pursue it seriously as a central part of their thinking, but as you say the spirit lives on in the Citizens' Assembly idea and the like.

    I'm a collectivist/democrat (choose your label) by instinct, and prefer the idea of society as a whole choosing a direction and all of us more or less enthusiastically pursuing it. In crisis situations it's essential to have a clear decision that applies to everyone - the (possibly apocryphal?) stories of anarchist units in the Spanish Civil War having a debate and a vote before each battle to decide whether to take part (so nobody else in the line knew whether to rely on them) illustrate the point.

    But there are countless examples of bad decisions taken centrally which could have been mitigated or avoided by local decision-making, and clearly people feel more engaged with that than in instructions coming down from On High. I used to be more centralist than I am now. Provisionally I now prefer the Swiss approach - lots of referenda at each appropriate level (town/canton/national), so the people as a whole make the decisions rather than little randomly-chosen groups, but it's not limited to casting a vote for a party every 5 years.
  • Just like you his brother is clearly too dumb to realise the Royal Family are there for Wales just as much as for England. After all his father is Prince of the bloody place.

    Anyway, we are all aware that you would much prefer President Boris.
    100% absolutely.

    A bad President can be removed (see: Trump) much easier than a bad Monarch can be.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    slade said:

    Earlier than usual but here is the line up for local by-elections tomorrow. Very unusually there are 4 Independents defences; in Allerdale, Newark and Sherwood, Nottinghamshire, and West Devon. There are also 2 Conservative defences ( NE Lincolnshire and North Northamptonshire), a Labour defence in Bristol, a Lib Dem defence in Oadby and Wigton, and a Green defence in Mid Suffolk.

    Wow. Quite the testing ground… of wether Libdems are just as popular as last week, or even more popular this week! 😁
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Years of abuse from the Welsh at us humble English rugby union fans has taken its toll.
    Aw, did someone finally let you in on what “twll dyn pob Sais” means?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    glw said:

    It's a tad worrying that it takes a crisis like this to learn such a lesson. I would have thought that it has long been obvious that we cannot trust the Russian government.
    Do we take her on her word they are ready, just because we like the sound of it? Or is it a case of, she would claim that today wouldn’t she?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    My suspicion is the current Ukraine President doesn’t survive if he succumbs to this pressure, there has to be more hawks on the territory boundaries of Ukraine in Kiev than to allow the Donetsk and Luhansk Pleblicites on autonomy that inevitably changes the border of the country. Are we in a position now where the German and French governments want to see those plebiscite and border changes believing it helps long term settle the issues? while Washington and London definitely oppose those pleblicites and the border changes? To be honest no, we can’t say that. Because Washington and London so silent on those pleblicites, we can’t say they definitely oppose Germany and France on this, is it accurate to say?
    Facts on the ground though. Is there any more possibility of Ukraine getting the Donbass back than the Palestinians getting the West Bank and East Jerusalem?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    kyf_100 said:

    A 10% increase in house prices corresponds to a 1.3% drop in birth rates, further compounding our demographic problem.

    Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2846173

    Though really you don't need a source, it's just common sense. If people can't afford the space, or ever afford to get out of the rental trap, they can't afford kids.
    Rents are the real scandal in the UK. I mean in theory it should be mortgage interest cost + cost of repairs & maintenance + some small profit/admin.
    The mortgage interest cost is very low,
    repairs are - well plenty of landlords don't seem too bothered about those..
    The profit/admin is generally huge.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    Yes I agree no sign of it. No sign of it either way though. Do we have enough evidence to know London and Washington aren’t on same page as Berlin and Paris behind the scenes. Though this is the area to watch, we are thankful to Carlotta for flagging this up.

    US and UK could be remaining silent whilst the Germans and French do the pressing for them? Washington and London sold out the Czechs in 1945, London had already done that to the Czechs in 1938! But no. As Ben Wallace suggested “whiff of Munich” it must be France and Germany he was referring to, not his own policy. So Think I agree with you.

    But What’s the possibility Germany, France, US, UK and Ukraine all decide to implement the pleblicite and border changes? Zero possibility? Is it appeasement. Surrendering to aggression? Or more complicated than that in bigger security picture?

    Does that explain why London and Washington remain silent on this?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564

    A lot of “shooting the messenger” in the replies:

    Babcock boss warns Rosyth yard could move to England if Scots vote Yes…

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1493855651856064514

    That's interesting.

    It was only days ago that a confirmation for a further order of a batch of frigates from the BAE Glasgow yard was made.

    Is this a regulatory requirement of risks to be published, perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896

    100% absolutely.

    A bad President can be removed (see: Trump) much easier than a bad Monarch can be.
    Trump nearly had a successful coup to remain in power in 2020.

    Bad monarchs rarely matter given we have constitutional monarchs not an absolute monarch anyway. In any case an Act of Parliament can replace one monarch by the next in the line of succession as at the Abdication.

    A bad President however like the US President has far more impact on most peoples' lives.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809

    Nah. The 90s were just as bad. The last PM who actually cared about running the country rather than simply winning elections was Thatcher.

    And everyone knows the last decades of decent music were the 65-85. It really has been all downhill since then.
    The 90s were the peak because they were the result of Mrs Thatcher's long term thinking. Since then it's been a pile of shite because from Major to Boris we've had leaders who care more about winning tomorrow's vote (parliamentary or elections) rather than what they want the country to look like 20 years from now.

    The 90s had incredible music, if you can't appreciate it then that's on you, though I'm very happy to listen to 70s and 80s as well. As someone who grew up in the 90s it's not surprising that I rate it!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Not sure you're serious, but...I don't think that institutionalising different interests is a good idea as it will reinforce the sense of division. Also, preoccupations change over time - issues that seemed seminal differences look irrelevant 20 years later. For example, a House of Leavers and a House of Remainers might well reflect important current divisions, but in some years would look ridiculously archaic,
    Corporatism, where different interests are directly represented in at least one house of a legislature was briefly popular in the 1920s and -30s. It’s not necessarily a bad idea in and of itself but got irredeemably associated with the people that liked to wear single-coloured shirts during that era. The Irish retain vestiges of it in Seanad Éireann, with most senators being elected (by TDs and local councillors) through association with “vocational panels” such as agriculture, cultue and commerce.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,560

    I am a paper candidate in a ward a long way down our target list. It would be a beautiful place to go canvass if I had time...
    Go and knock as many doors as you can, and get yourself known. In local elections, more people vote for someone they recognise than someone they haven’t heard of. Also more people vote for the person, rather than the party, in local elections than in national elections. You may surprise yourself, and your party organisation. This assumes you would actually be able to give the necessary time to the job.
  • Mr. Max, it's enough to make me want to write a comparison of missed opportunities: Was Tony Blair the equivalent of Manuel Comnenus?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,102
    MattW said:

    That's interesting.

    It was only days ago that a confirmation for a further order of a batch of frigates from the BAE Glasgow yard was made.

    Is this a regulatory requirement of risks to be published, perhaps?
    You’d imagine Indy would be high up in any risk analysis.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Foxy said:

    Facts on the ground though. Is there any more possibility of Ukraine getting the Donbass back than the Palestinians getting the West Bank and East Jerusalem?
    Should these things ever be surrendered as an aim though?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809

    Just like you his brother is clearly too dumb to realise the Royal Family are there for Wales just as much as for England. After all his father is Prince of the bloody place.

    Anyway, we are all aware that you would much prefer President Boris.
    William will inherit that title as well when Charles ascends to the throne, so supporting Wales makes some kind of sense.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,732
    MaxPB said:

    The 90s were the peak because they were the result of Mrs Thatcher's long term thinking. Since then it's been a pile of shite because from Major to Boris we've had leaders who care more about winning tomorrow's vote (parliamentary or elections) rather than what they want the country to look like 20 years from now.

    The 90s had incredible music, if you can't appreciate it then that's on you, though I'm very happy to listen to 70s and 80s as well. As someone who grew up in the 90s it's not surprising that I rate it!
    I don't see pressure from voters as being a bad thing. Many's the war we've avoided or the grotesquely huge expensive project we've scrapped, or the freedom we've gained because politicians knew that they had to win an election.

    I believe that the fundamentals of the UK, both in terms of the creativity and resourcefulness of our people and physical and geographical factors give us every chance of thriving in the 21st century. We need a decent, un-fussy, competent Government that tries to get out of peoples' way rather than get in peoples' faces.

    I'm a bit of a sucker for the 90's myself mind. Pop culture-wise it was a bit of a sweet spot. Appreciate the 80's too - only bits of the 70's and 60's.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673

    At this point it is all speculation. We have VDL going heavy on sanctions, Macaroons quasi-ineffective diplomacy....

    There is no sign that Washington or London are interested in pressuring the Ukrainians into making concessions.
    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    Yes I agree no sign of it. No sign of it either way though. Do we have enough evidence to know London and Washington aren’t on same page as Berlin and Paris behind the scenes. Though this is the area to watch, we are thankful to Carlotta for flagging this up.

    US and UK could be remaining silent whilst the Germans and French do the pressing for them? Washington and London sold out the Czechs in 1945, London had already done that to the Czechs in 1938! But no. As Ben Wallace suggested “whiff of Munich” it must be France and Germany he was referring to, not his own policy. So Think I agree with you.

    But What’s the possibility Germany, France, US, UK and Ukraine all decide to implement the pleblicite and border changes? Zero possibility? Is it appeasement. Surrendering to aggression? Or more complicated than that in bigger security picture?

    Does that explain why London and Washington remain silent on this?
    To pressure Ukraine to accept this is to invoke Munich. Why should London and Washington go that road?

    Note that the Ukrainian comments on this are specific to who they think is doing this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    Pulpstar said:

    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.

    Northern Rock?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    MaxPB said:

    Northern Rock?
    Not the same concept, my idea is for the banks to offer 100% OO interest only mortgages with the bank taking on the risk/reward of capital appreciation.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,501

    I think maybe you need to factor in the wealth and resources of each country's Rugby Union ...

    Still, If you're happy ... we are certainly all happy.
    I'm happy hope you're happy too.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,243

    Given her past history, this will be an embargo of exports *to* Russia of

    - Natural gas
    - Vodka
    - Caviare

    She will then sue someone to cover up the fuck up - probably the Ukrainian Government.
    Such sanctions might prove quasi-ineffective...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Rents are the real scandal in the UK. I mean in theory it should be mortgage interest cost + cost of repairs & maintenance + some small profit/admin.
    The mortgage interest cost is very low,
    repairs are - well plenty of landlords don't seem too bothered about those..
    The profit/admin is generally huge.
    The rental situation is only going to get worse though. The new rules and regs mean that many people who were renting out the Granny flat are now pulling out of that market. It is rapidly collapsing as the costs make it no longer viable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Should these things ever be surrendered as an aim though?
    The choice for Ukraine is either some sort of regional autonomy and a permanent Russian influence in their government, or getting shot of them behind new borders with a more Ukranian majority. Crimea is even less likely to return.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114

    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    Should the Palestinians be "realistic" about accepting the Isreal has settled the land, now?

    Just asking.
  • The rental situation is only going to get worse though. The new rules and regs mean that many people who were renting out the Granny flat are now pulling out of that market. It is rapidly collapsing as the costs make it no longer viable.
    And interest costs not fully tax deductable either so there's a sizeable tax wedge in rents too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    Pulpstar said:

    Not the same concept, my idea is for the banks to offer 100% OO interest only mortgages with the bank taking on the risk/reward of capital appreciation.
    Well that's what the repossession is for, what's to stop the owner remortgaging 5 years later on a traditional mortgage? I'm not a huge defender of landlords, yet I'd be pretty worried if banks decided to offer products that turned them into landlords, it seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

    I can't imagine the mess of derivatives that would come into being with that kind of mortgage asset.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,496

    As with Catalonia, at some point Ukraine will need a realistic way of dealing with a culturally distinct region, which can't seriously be "we're governing you from the centre, suck it up and learn to speak Ukrainian" unless they want internal confrontation forever. The Minsk deal giving regional autonomy, as in Scotland, looks a reasonable alternative to plebiscites on secession a la Slesvig, but is politically difficult while it's perceived to be a projection of Russian military menace. It's not up to us (or Russia) to tell them what to do, but we (and Germany/France) can reasonably say it'd be good if they hinted at a viable plan that takes some account of the minority.
    They will, but the Minsk accords are based on the premise of the Russian occupied regions within the Ukraine border returning to Ukrainian control. Any plan is viable only once Ukraine's borders are guaranteed by all sides including Russia.
    A settlement with only Ukraine giving ground isn't a settlement at all.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114
    Selebian said:

    Such sanctions might prove quasi-ineffective...
    No, this is the EU, the French policy will be quasi-ineffective
  • eekeek Posts: 29,696

    The rental situation is only going to get worse though. The new rules and regs mean that many people who were renting out the Granny flat are now pulling out of that market. It is rapidly collapsing as the costs make it no longer viable.
    What costs - do you mean current house prices make the returns utterly pointless or the forthcoming refurbishment costs to meet the new standards that Gove wants to create?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,696
    Pulpstar said:

    Banks could blow all the BTLers out the water. Offer interest only on OO held property stock (At 75% LTV it would be safe enough). Higher LTVs could be sold where the bank takes a cut of the appreciation (To cover depreciation risk), to the Daddy of mortgages - 100% LTV mortgage with the bank holding all the capital risk/reward. Basically renting from the bank directly without the middle man.

    A way better plan is for pension funds to build to rent....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,114
    Nigelb said:

    They will, but the Minsk accords are based on the premise of the Russian occupied regions within the Ukraine border returning to Ukrainian control. Any plan is viable only once Ukraine's borders are guaranteed by all sides including Russia.
    A settlement with only Ukraine giving ground isn't a settlement at all.
    At the moment it is like the "peace deals" during the Yugoslav Wars - The international community kept demanding people sign an agreement, and the Serbs kept on creating "facts on the ground"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    🚨NEW Feb Political Tracker - Net Favourability

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    2,226 UK adults, 11-13 Feb

    (Changes from 14-16 Jan)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    🚨NEW Feb Political Tracker - Best PM rating

    📈Starmer's highest ever Best PM score

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    2,226 UK adults, 11-13 Feb

    (Changes from 14-16 Jan) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1493936921604771842/photo/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,809
    Nigelb said:

    They will, but the Minsk accords are based on the premise of the Russian occupied regions within the Ukraine border returning to Ukrainian control. Any plan is viable only once Ukraine's borders are guaranteed by all sides including Russia.
    A settlement with only Ukraine giving ground isn't a settlement at all.
    Nick is happily just repeating the French/EU position. Ukraine gives everything up and the agreement doesn't bind Russia anyway. Macron has shifted the discussion onto Ukrainian concessions without extracting anything from Putin. Completely idiotic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    MaxPB said:

    Well that's what the repossession is for, what's to stop the owner remortgaging 5 years later on a traditional mortgage? I'm not a huge defender of landlords, yet I'd be pretty worried if banks decided to offer products that turned them into landlords, it seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

    I can't imagine the mess of derivatives that would come into being with that kind of mortgage asset.
    When I remortgaged, the new bank gave a (slightly increased) valuation. Borrower would have to cover the difference to remortgage. Ts & Cs of the mortgage would cover borrower not covering general repairs/deliberately trashing the property to lower value.
    Various derivatives are sold with all mortgages anyway. The point about this mortgage would be it would be suitable for general renters - takes the Landlord middle man out the picture.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564

    The rental situation is only going to get worse though. The new rules and regs mean that many people who were renting out the Granny flat are now pulling out of that market. It is rapidly collapsing as the costs make it no longer viable.
    Do you have a link to these new rules and regs?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    Nigelb said:

    .

    This though (a bit like your solution to the trans issue) assumes things which simply don't exist, and aren't likely to anytime soon even with governments more competent than the one we now have.
    Looking at the rates for prosecution and conviction for sex crimes which aren't decades old, the chances of getting justice appear quite low. What are the prospects in a case like this ?

    Has anything changed for the better ? Andrew has at least now decided he regrets his friendship with Epstein.
    I prefer to find solutions to the problems we have rather than come up with proposals which do not solve those issues and create even bigger problems. That applies to both criminal justice and trans issues.

    Creating more problems is never the right answer. We can learn this the quick way or the hard way.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,564
    MaxPB said:

    Well that's what the repossession is for, what's to stop the owner remortgaging 5 years later on a traditional mortgage? I'm not a huge defender of landlords, yet I'd be pretty worried if banks decided to offer products that turned them into landlords, it seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

    I can't imagine the mess of derivatives that would come into being with that kind of mortgage asset.
    Banks are already going into rental investment.

    We all know about Legal and General. Also Lloyds (50k homes), and ..er.. John Lewis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/19/lloyds-plans-big-move-into-uk-rental-market-with-50000-homes

    The blatant thing is that such will only be interested in the top of the market in all likelihood.

    L&G rents are significantly higher than normal market rents, and they aim for the top 25% or so afaics.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    HYUFD said:

    Trump nearly had a successful coup to remain in power in 2020.

    Bad monarchs rarely matter given we have constitutional monarchs not an absolute monarch anyway. In any case an Act of Parliament can replace one monarch by the next in the line of succession as at the Abdication.

    A bad President however like the US President has far more impact on most peoples' lives.
    Of course there is zero chance of the monarch being replaced by a president who is head of government (as in the US). A UK president would be something like the president of Ireland or Germany.
This discussion has been closed.