The projection on 5/5/22 that could end Johnson or save him – politicalbetting.com

Nigelb said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

I think that's wrong.
What bothers Putin's Russia is that it might become a successful and prosperous democracy.

BartholomewRoberts said:

The reports from Canada on how peaceful protests are being dealt with, freezing people's bank accounts etc, are really concerning. That sort of thing shouldn't happen in a free society.

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

You think Vladimir Putin reads PB, and me calling him a “pussy” on this blog might be the final, intolerable western aggression that pushes him into total tank war in Eastern Europe?

Don't say anything about the fact that Putin has a tiny pee-pee....

I feel burdened with terrible guilt now.

Sorry, People of Kiev.

LostPassword said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

solarflare said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

FPT for KJH

"How do you know it is nonsense? Great brains have no idea so how do you?"


+++++

That's my point. It is nonsense to presume we "know", or can "know", that we are all alone, via some fucking daft "equation" with so many imponderables and variables it is almost without utility.

What we know is that life formed, and exploded, on the one planet in our solar system able to host it. And possibly on others in this solar system, maybe several times, we dunno

There are BILLIONS of planets like ours out there, in our galaxy, and there are 200 BILLION galaxies, and we may be just one universe amongst an infinite number which may interact.....

Wild wild guess: we are not alone, we are just like the Easter Islanders, staring at the vastness of a lonely Pacific ocean, and thinking, "Oh well, just us then"

And then they saw the first Dutch Indiaman, sailing over the horizon....

Hi @Leon you have repeated the same flawed argument. Before I explain why again just let me say I have not a clue whether life exists elsewhere and although my background is as a mathematician these theories are way above anything I can understand but I accept they give credence to the likelihood of life hence my doubt one way or another.

However your assumption doesn't hold. It is flawed and I can explain why that is the case because that isn't such advanced maths. You have assumed that because life exists here and there are a huge number of stars and planets that it probably exists elsewhere. This is flawed probability because you are only able to have that thought because it is after the event. You don't exist on Mercury to have the opposite thought. So we could equally be unique. Even if the probability of life is so small that it probably won't happen you are at the after event where it did (probability of 1).Try this analogy: If you win the lottery jackpot one week you could easily be the only winner, but you don't think if I have won there has to be other winners do you? But that is exactly what you are doing.

Does that make sense?

I'm not sure the lottery analogy holds up, if I'm honest. Sure, you might be the sole lucky guy who beat the odds this week in this discrete event. But you know other folk have beaten the same odds before at different times. Doesn't mean you know you will win, but it means you know it can be done.

The point is if you do the thing that leads to the incredibly unlikely thing enough times, you start to build up a cohort of instances where someone somewhere's beaten the odds.

I'm not really sure that that's much different with the emergence of life, with the only real limiting factor being that space is big. Really big. So even when it happens, noone else is nearby enough to see it.

Your last point is the kicker: space is big beyond imagination. Which means that the chance of life (of some kind) being out there is probably quite high...

...but it also means that the chances of us being able to detect or interact with any of that life out there is... very small.

There may now be untold gazillion intelligent civilizations trying to make sense of I Love Lucy, sent out to the Universe decades ago. Signals which weren't meant for us to hear, or perhaps signals simply saying "Hello!" like the Wow! signal.

Of course, "seeing" messages by light requires the observer to have developed the retina first...

There's an xkcd cartoon that's relevant (isn't there always?). The problem is the inverse-square law, which means that our TV and radio signals become very faint, very quickly - as does also the light from stars, which is why the stars we can see with the naked eye are a lot closer than people think.

kle4 said:

Djokovic: I'm absolutely an anti vaxxer but please dont call me an anti vaxxer as I know people don't like that word.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60354068

YBarddCwsc said:

OldKingCole said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

On the post office scandal, what I find interesting is that they actually managed to get as many convictions as they did. Juries are usually pretty risk averse, but I guess an expert witness testified to say that the only explanation was that the postmaster was stealing the money.

I’m guessing this can’t happen, but as a start, I’d like to see those expert witnesses charged with perjury.

The story is even worse than it appears.

You see, almost all the 900 prosecutions (resulting in more than 700 wrongful convictions) were done by private prosecution. The Post Office brought the cases themselves. They held all the records: see, the system says they should have 70,000 in their bank account, but they only have 20,000... They must have stolen the rest.

And while this was going on, the Post Office was unusually profitable, as it kept discovering it had more money than it thought it did.

Nobody noticed that the extra money they seemed to have matched the amount they thought was being stolen from them.

And the Post Office would bring Proceeds of Crime Act proceedings against Post masters and would strip them of their homes to repay money than was never stolen.

And then there was a monumental cover up

Another thing they did was to adopt the US tactic of aggressive plea bargaining - threatening imprisonment and dangling the offer of no prison time in exchange for guilty pleas.
Faced with what had happened to so many others, it's understandable that numerous innocent people pleaded guilty.

And then they used the guilty pleas to go after their assets.

It is one of the worst scandals in British history, and yet no one seems to care.

Government's of all parties (including, shamefully, the LD's) seem to have accepted the Post Office's Board's word without question. And when they did move, moved very slowly.

What staggers me is the length of time that the scandal's gone on. I remembered reading about this in a paper (Computer Weekly?) a couple of decades ago, and a colleague's wife was a postmistress, so he talked about the fear - and it was fear - they felt. Yet the PO continued malicious prosecutions and ruining lives for years afterwards.

Morally, people from Fujitsu and the PO should be in jail over this. But what could they be charged with?

Paula Vennels is, or at least was, a priest.

Well she’d better start praying, she was in charge when many of the prosecutions occurred, and after there had already been concerns raised as to what was going on.

I think we can guarantee Paula will be absolutely fine.

The public inquiry will conclude, "Mistakes were made but Paula did her best in difficult circumstances. She cannot be blamed for what has happened."

The Archbish will be wheeled out with his platitudes, "Paula has taken biblical inspiration from the young King Solomon, who showed humility in asking God for understanding & forgiveness ..."

And finally, we will be reminded of how she has suffered. "Paula is one of the great victims of this scandal. No one feels worse than Paula about what has happened".

To be fair, and perhaps in partial contradiction of my previous post, she has, I understand, stepped down from any priestly duties.

She finally stepped down in April 2021, after 39 of the convicted former postmasters had their convictions quashed.

She stepped down because she was becoming a public embarrassment.

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

Nigelb said:

.

eek said:

Nigelb said:

Fishing said:

Dura_Ace said:

Gallowgate said:

I can’t accurately express how angry stuff like this makes me. Absolutely disgraceful.

I have no idea why the Post Office even exists at this point. It seems like a relict from another age that serves no function beyond those of a less than averagely good delivery company and a Pound Shop.

See also: the House of Lords, the Red Arrows, the Royal Family, Morgan cars, the BBC, the CoE and Tony Robinson.

Yes but unfortunately it is the law - because of the idiotic universal service policy imposed by a European directive (and gold-plated here) that the government hasn't scrapped because any threat to it fills MPs' mailbags like nothing else.

Wouldn't scrapping it solve that problem ?

Not really - the Post Office as well as collecting post it's also used as the banking solution for any / all places that have lost banks over the years.

That of course ignores the other issue that because of this scandal very few people now want to run post offices.

I meant the MPs full mailbags...

Leon said:

Hmm

“Johnson cut short his UK tour to return to London in order to convene the meeting to discuss the UK’s consular response.

“He is believed to have received an intelligence briefing upon his return after maintaining there is still time for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.”

From the Guardian live-blog about 20 minutes ago

Ominousness piled on onimosity. Omino-max

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Leon said:

Hmm

“Johnson cut short his UK tour to return to London in order to convene the meeting to discuss the UK’s consular response.

“He is believed to have received an intelligence briefing upon his return after maintaining there is still time for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.”

From the Guardian live-blog about 20 minutes ago

Ominousness piled on onimosity. Omino-max

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

The Western leaders are certainly making the most of it to raise their domestic profiles, though. I see the UK papers are full of Johnson and Biden, while the German news is all about Scholz and Biden. My French isn't great, but I'm betting the French news is dominated by Macron and Biden.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

You think Vladimir Putin reads PB, and me calling him a “pussy” on this blog might be the final, intolerable western aggression that pushes him into total tank war in Eastern Europe?

Heathener said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

Hmm

“Johnson cut short his UK tour to return to London in order to convene the meeting to discuss the UK’s consular response.

“He is believed to have received an intelligence briefing upon his return after maintaining there is still time for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.”

From the Guardian live-blog about 20 minutes ago

Ominousness piled on onimosity. Omino-max

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

20th February, next Sunday, is one of the invasion start dates mooted (I believe because of the end of the Olympics, and the end of the exercises in Belarus).

All rather redolent of Nostradamus. Every time it doesn't happen a new date pops onto the Daily Mail front page.

YBarddCwsc said:

OldKingCole said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

tlg86 said:

On the post office scandal, what I find interesting is that they actually managed to get as many convictions as they did. Juries are usually pretty risk averse, but I guess an expert witness testified to say that the only explanation was that the postmaster was stealing the money.

I’m guessing this can’t happen, but as a start, I’d like to see those expert witnesses charged with perjury.

The story is even worse than it appears.

You see, almost all the 900 prosecutions (resulting in more than 700 wrongful convictions) were done by private prosecution. The Post Office brought the cases themselves. They held all the records: see, the system says they should have 70,000 in their bank account, but they only have 20,000... They must have stolen the rest.

And while this was going on, the Post Office was unusually profitable, as it kept discovering it had more money than it thought it did.

Nobody noticed that the extra money they seemed to have matched the amount they thought was being stolen from them.

And the Post Office would bring Proceeds of Crime Act proceedings against Post masters and would strip them of their homes to repay money than was never stolen.

And then there was a monumental cover up

Another thing they did was to adopt the US tactic of aggressive plea bargaining - threatening imprisonment and dangling the offer of no prison time in exchange for guilty pleas.
Faced with what had happened to so many others, it's understandable that numerous innocent people pleaded guilty.

And then they used the guilty pleas to go after their assets.

It is one of the worst scandals in British history, and yet no one seems to care.

Government's of all parties (including, shamefully, the LD's) seem to have accepted the Post Office's Board's word without question. And when they did move, moved very slowly.

What staggers me is the length of time that the scandal's gone on. I remembered reading about this in a paper (Computer Weekly?) a couple of decades ago, and a colleague's wife was a postmistress, so he talked about the fear - and it was fear - they felt. Yet the PO continued malicious prosecutions and ruining lives for years afterwards.

Morally, people from Fujitsu and the PO should be in jail over this. But what could they be charged with?

Paula Vennels is, or at least was, a priest.

Well she’d better start praying, she was in charge when many of the prosecutions occurred, and after there had already been concerns raised as to what was going on.

I think we can guarantee Paula will be absolutely fine.

The public inquiry will conclude, "Mistakes were made but Paula did her best in difficult circumstances. She cannot be blamed for what has happened."

The Archbish will be wheeled out with his platitudes, "Paula has taken biblical inspiration from the young King Solomon, who showed humility in asking God for understanding & forgiveness ..."

And finally, we will be reminded of how she has suffered. "Paula is one of the great victims of this scandal. No one feels worse than Paula about what has happened".

To be fair, and perhaps in partial contradiction of my previous post, she has, I understand, stepped down from any priestly duties.

She finally stepped down in April 2021, after 39 of the convicted former postmasters had their convictions quashed.

She stepped down because she was becoming a public embarrassment.

Scott_xP said:

European stocks rally, gas prices drop sharply on Interfax report that some Russian units will be returning to their base after completing their drills.
https://twitter.com/nchrysoloras/status/1493502372575956994

YBarddCwsc said:

Malmesbury said:

LostPassword said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

solarflare said:

kjh said:

Leon said:

FPT for KJH

"How do you know it is nonsense? Great brains have no idea so how do you?"


+++++

That's my point. It is nonsense to presume we "know", or can "know", that we are all alone, via some fucking daft "equation" with so many imponderables and variables it is almost without utility.

What we know is that life formed, and exploded, on the one planet in our solar system able to host it. And possibly on others in this solar system, maybe several times, we dunno

There are BILLIONS of planets like ours out there, in our galaxy, and there are 200 BILLION galaxies, and we may be just one universe amongst an infinite number which may interact.....

Wild wild guess: we are not alone, we are just like the Easter Islanders, staring at the vastness of a lonely Pacific ocean, and thinking, "Oh well, just us then"

And then they saw the first Dutch Indiaman, sailing over the horizon....

Hi @Leon you have repeated the same flawed argument. Before I explain why again just let me say I have not a clue whether life exists elsewhere and although my background is as a mathematician these theories are way above anything I can understand but I accept they give credence to the likelihood of life hence my doubt one way or another.

However your assumption doesn't hold. It is flawed and I can explain why that is the case because that isn't such advanced maths. You have assumed that because life exists here and there are a huge number of stars and planets that it probably exists elsewhere. This is flawed probability because you are only able to have that thought because it is after the event. You don't exist on Mercury to have the opposite thought. So we could equally be unique. Even if the probability of life is so small that it probably won't happen you are at the after event where it did (probability of 1).Try this analogy: If you win the lottery jackpot one week you could easily be the only winner, but you don't think if I have won there has to be other winners do you? But that is exactly what you are doing.

Does that make sense?

I'm not sure the lottery analogy holds up, if I'm honest. Sure, you might be the sole lucky guy who beat the odds this week in this discrete event. But you know other folk have beaten the same odds before at different times. Doesn't mean you know you will win, but it means you know it can be done.

The point is if you do the thing that leads to the incredibly unlikely thing enough times, you start to build up a cohort of instances where someone somewhere's beaten the odds.

I'm not really sure that that's much different with the emergence of life, with the only real limiting factor being that space is big. Really big. So even when it happens, noone else is nearby enough to see it.

Your last point is the kicker: space is big beyond imagination. Which means that the chance of life (of some kind) being out there is probably quite high...

...but it also means that the chances of us being able to detect or interact with any of that life out there is... very small.

There may now be untold gazillion intelligent civilizations trying to make sense of I Love Lucy, sent out to the Universe decades ago. Signals which weren't meant for us to hear, or perhaps signals simply saying "Hello!" like the Wow! signal.

Of course, "seeing" messages by light requires the observer to have developed the retina first...

There's an xkcd cartoon that's relevant (isn't there always?). The problem is the inverse-square law, which means that our TV and radio signals become very faint, very quickly - as does also the light from stars, which is why the stars we can see with the naked eye are a lot closer than people think.

Though the light from the nuclear tests has a unique signature - the core of the explosion is briefly the hottest thing in the universe. The AN602 test (aka Tsar Bomba) was the ringing of one hell of a bell. If there is anyone pointing a telescope this way for a few light years, they will see it.

But, even if they see it, they have to recognise it as a man-made signal rather than an exotic astrophysical source.

LostPassword said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

The reports from Canada on how peaceful protests are being dealt with, freezing people's bank accounts etc, are really concerning. That sort of thing shouldn't happen in a free society.

Didn't you advocate car drivers running over peaceful Insulate Britain protesters?

Scott_xP said:

If — if — Russians have indeed folded, it will not be hard to sell at home. “Stupid foreigners wilfully misinterpreting Russia’s intentions.” Equally in west it will be sold as a major victory for US hardball info warfare and negotiation tactics. But this is still very early. https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1493501273634656256

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Just look at the way one of the people convicted in the post office trials was described at the time. Certainly makes for sobering reading now. From 2012:

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/postmistress-who-stole-75000-pay-4811217

The Horizon scandal is absolutely appalling - worse in many ways than Enron. People went to jail. They lost homes. Families broke up. People committed suicide.

Over crimes that didn't happen.

And then the management of Fujitsu-ICL lied and tried to cover it up.

More than 700 people were convicted of crimes they didn't commit. 700. Staggering.

Final comment on this: Paula Vennells became CEO of the Post Office in 2012. By this point, there was a massive amount of evidence that the Horizon system was deeply fucked up, and that earlier convictions were unsound. (Indeed, the first articles were written on this in 2004.)

Yet under her watch the number of people prosecuted for crimes that never happened went into overdrive.

And what is insane is that she is far from the most guilty.

The difficult question is why people inflicted this on so many innocents. For must of them there couldn't have been significant personal gain involved - rather it was likely just pressure to, or even just the tendency to confirm with organisation policy.

It's not quite "just following orders", but it's not wildly dissimilar.

It is exactly just following orders. That is how just following orders begins. Authoritarians and their gophers, like HYUFD, are not benign, they are malignant. The cancer needs to be countered, or else we are well on the road to Treblinka.

Something has gone profoundly wrong with English society. All the warning signs are there.

Is English society really that much different to Scottish society?

Whataboutery. The Post Office scandal was made and nurtured in England. Hundreds, if not thousands, of English people must have known what was happening, and yet no one had the moral backbone to make a stand. Therein another lesson from history being ignored: when the cancer is pointed out, deal with it. Don’t blame other people.

YBarddCwsc said:

SouthamObserver said:

I do not see how Putin can possibly succeed with a full-scale invasion of the Ukraine. It will be a limited incursion based on some kind of spurious invitation from ethnic Russian areas that have declared independence. The question then is how far the West's response will go. Anything that is less than hugely punitive and immediately consequential for those whose support Putin requires to remain in charge means he will end up getting what he wants.

I think that is right, but he will take a bit more than the Russian areas -- probably most of the Eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine will lose less territory if it accepted that its present boundaries are unsupportable.

It will lose more if it comes to a war.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

You think Vladimir Putin reads PB, and me calling him a “pussy” on this blog might be the final, intolerable western aggression that pushes him into total tank war in Eastern Europe?

Eabhal said:

US Poseidon out of Lossie about to fly over my flat.

This is great fun. I've seen Typhoons flying up through the Cuillin from the summit of Blaven, a group of Ospreys swinging past the Lawers range and Eilean Donan Castle used as a mock bombing target by two Tornados.

It's mad how close they all get to the mountains. Hercules skimming Loch Lochy was pretty cool too.

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

rottenborough said:

londonpubman said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Some data from the ONS, concerning changes in housing tenure over time in England:

People aged 65 and over

1993

own outright: 55.7%
own with mortgage: 5.8%
private rental sector: 6.3%
social rental sector: 32.2%

2017

own outright: 74.2%
own with mortgage: 4.4%
private rental sector: 5.6%
social rental sector: 15.8%

People aged 16 to 64

1993

own outright: 14.0%
own with mortgage: 56.2%
private rental sector: 10.8%
social rental sector: 19.0%

2017

own outright: 17.4%
own with mortgage: 40.0%
private rental sector: 25.2%
social rental sector: 17.5%

In crude terms, since the Nineties owner-occupancy amongst pensioners has risen by about 20% and social rented occupancy has correspondingly declined; owner-occupancy amongst everyone else has fallen by about 15% and renting from private landlords has correspondingly risen.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/articles/livinglonger/changesinhousingtenureovertime#:~:text=Main points,two-thirds 20 years earlier.

+ Almost three-quarters of people aged 65 years and over in England own their home outright.

+ Younger people are less likely to own their own home than in the past and more likely to be renting. Half of people in their mid-30s to mid-40s had a mortgage in 2017, compared with two-thirds 20 years earlier.

+ People in their mid-30s to mid-40s are three times more likely to rent than 20 years ago. A third of this age group were renting from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 in 1997.

+ Increases in the private rental sector have been seen for all age groups apart from the very oldest, with the increase particularly pronounced in mid-life. People aged 35 to 44 years were almost three and a half times more likely to be renting in 2017 than in 1993.

+ Renting from a private landlord is most common at younger ages and decreases with age as people take out mortgages and/or receive inheritances. But for any given age, people are far more likely to be renting privately today than 10 or 20 years ago. Almost a third (28%) of people aged 35 to 44 years rented from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 (9%) in 1997.

+ The percentage owning with a mortgage peaks in middle age, and then declines at older ages as people finish paying off their mortgages and own their homes outright. But for almost any age, it is less common to own with a mortgage than 10 or 20 years ago. Half (50%) of people aged 35 to 44 had a mortgage in 2017, compared with more than two-thirds (68%) in 1997.

An ageing population + concentration of wealth in the hands of the elderly = gerontocracy. That's the political reality of modern Britain.

Depends where you go, in the North and Midlands and Wales for example property is still relatively cheap to buy and so more can get on the housing ladder earlier.

Note too the clear majority of over 35s still own property with a mortgage at least. As for the higher number of pensioners who own outright, that will of course generally filter down to younger generations too via inheritance

Most people inheriting from their parents are splitting it with siblings. Even those "lucky" enough to have something to inherit are not inheriting a whole property.

Lots of people don't inherit property from their parents at all...

Indeed. And those that do are inheriting these days in their mid to late 60s. Not exactly what people have in mind when you say "younger generations".

Yes we have had this argument before with @HYUFD. I'm 67 and still waiting to inherit. I might get nothing if my father needs it to pay for a home. If he doesn't need to do that it will be split with my sister which halves it. Having got to 67 I have paid off my mortgage and what I will inherit from his home is 1/10 of the value of my own home.

So none of this can be considered a transfer of property by parents to their children. At best I will inherit some money that I don't need. 40 years ago it would have been useful, but now not so much. Don't know where HYUFD gets his ideas about youngster inheriting property from their parents from. In most cases an inherited house is sold and the money split by 60+ year old children.

In the Home Counties certainly many if not most now get parental assistance with deposits in their 30s

Most will see their parents die by their mid 50s not mid 60s on average life expectancy and thus inherit too

Well that is utter nonsense because we have been here before and I went to the ONS data at the time and did the calculations. Firstly you have to live long enough to have children. Assume that is about 30. Your life expectancy at 30 is significantly higher than at birth. Then of course both parents have to die before you inherit. So l remember looking up and doing the calc for the age at death of the oldest of two individuals still alive at 30. On average that age is 95. That gives the average age of inheritance at 65.

You have used life expectancy of one individual and from birth. 5 year olds don't have children.

Re parental help with property - can you verify that stat? I know nobody that has.

Heathener said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Leon said:

Hmm

“Johnson cut short his UK tour to return to London in order to convene the meeting to discuss the UK’s consular response.

“He is believed to have received an intelligence briefing upon his return after maintaining there is still time for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.”

From the Guardian live-blog about 20 minutes ago

Ominousness piled on onimosity. Omino-max

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

The Western leaders are certainly making the most of it to raise their domestic profiles, though. I see the UK papers are full of Johnson and Biden, while the German news is all about Scholz and Biden. My French isn't great, but I'm betting the French news is dominated by Macron and Biden.

Absolutely.

And it's working (for now) judging by opinion polls.

StuartDickson said:

felix said:

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Just look at the way one of the people convicted in the post office trials was described at the time. Certainly makes for sobering reading now. From 2012:

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/postmistress-who-stole-75000-pay-4811217

The Horizon scandal is absolutely appalling - worse in many ways than Enron. People went to jail. They lost homes. Families broke up. People committed suicide.

Over crimes that didn't happen.

And then the management of Fujitsu-ICL lied and tried to cover it up.

More than 700 people were convicted of crimes they didn't commit. 700. Staggering.

Final comment on this: Paula Vennells became CEO of the Post Office in 2012. By this point, there was a massive amount of evidence that the Horizon system was deeply fucked up, and that earlier convictions were unsound. (Indeed, the first articles were written on this in 2004.)

Yet under her watch the number of people prosecuted for crimes that never happened went into overdrive.

And what is insane is that she is far from the most guilty.

The difficult question is why people inflicted this on so many innocents. For must of them there couldn't have been significant personal gain involved - rather it was likely just pressure to, or even just the tendency to confirm with organisation policy.

It's not quite "just following orders", but it's not wildly dissimilar.

It is exactly just following orders. That is how just following orders begins. Authoritarians and their gophers, like HYUFD, are not benign, they are malignant. The cancer needs to be countered, or else we are well on the road to Treblinka.

Something has gone profoundly wrong with English society. All the warning signs are there.

Is English society really that much different to Scottish society?

Well quite - the man is so full of hate for the English - and in a much nastier pernicious way than any other of the nationalist posters on here.

It is my love for England and her people that gives me the moral strength to lift my head above the parapet. There is a nasty cancer now firmly embedded deep within English society. All who care about the country have a moral duty to point it out and to help the English remove the malignancy. A malignancy frequently on public display on these threads.

I get accused of “hatred” simply for mentioning the name of a nation. Nations have distinct societies and culture. We should be allowed to discuss them. If we are not, it is just one more step down into the abyss.

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

kjh said:

rottenborough said:

londonpubman said:

Farooq said:

HYUFD said:

pigeon said:

Some data from the ONS, concerning changes in housing tenure over time in England:

People aged 65 and over

1993

own outright: 55.7%
own with mortgage: 5.8%
private rental sector: 6.3%
social rental sector: 32.2%

2017

own outright: 74.2%
own with mortgage: 4.4%
private rental sector: 5.6%
social rental sector: 15.8%

People aged 16 to 64

1993

own outright: 14.0%
own with mortgage: 56.2%
private rental sector: 10.8%
social rental sector: 19.0%

2017

own outright: 17.4%
own with mortgage: 40.0%
private rental sector: 25.2%
social rental sector: 17.5%

In crude terms, since the Nineties owner-occupancy amongst pensioners has risen by about 20% and social rented occupancy has correspondingly declined; owner-occupancy amongst everyone else has fallen by about 15% and renting from private landlords has correspondingly risen.

Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/ageing/articles/livinglonger/changesinhousingtenureovertime#:~:text=Main points,two-thirds 20 years earlier.

+ Almost three-quarters of people aged 65 years and over in England own their home outright.

+ Younger people are less likely to own their own home than in the past and more likely to be renting. Half of people in their mid-30s to mid-40s had a mortgage in 2017, compared with two-thirds 20 years earlier.

+ People in their mid-30s to mid-40s are three times more likely to rent than 20 years ago. A third of this age group were renting from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 in 1997.

+ Increases in the private rental sector have been seen for all age groups apart from the very oldest, with the increase particularly pronounced in mid-life. People aged 35 to 44 years were almost three and a half times more likely to be renting in 2017 than in 1993.

+ Renting from a private landlord is most common at younger ages and decreases with age as people take out mortgages and/or receive inheritances. But for any given age, people are far more likely to be renting privately today than 10 or 20 years ago. Almost a third (28%) of people aged 35 to 44 years rented from a private landlord in 2017, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 (9%) in 1997.

+ The percentage owning with a mortgage peaks in middle age, and then declines at older ages as people finish paying off their mortgages and own their homes outright. But for almost any age, it is less common to own with a mortgage than 10 or 20 years ago. Half (50%) of people aged 35 to 44 had a mortgage in 2017, compared with more than two-thirds (68%) in 1997.

An ageing population + concentration of wealth in the hands of the elderly = gerontocracy. That's the political reality of modern Britain.

Depends where you go, in the North and Midlands and Wales for example property is still relatively cheap to buy and so more can get on the housing ladder earlier.

Note too the clear majority of over 35s still own property with a mortgage at least. As for the higher number of pensioners who own outright, that will of course generally filter down to younger generations too via inheritance

Most people inheriting from their parents are splitting it with siblings. Even those "lucky" enough to have something to inherit are not inheriting a whole property.

Lots of people don't inherit property from their parents at all...

Indeed. And those that do are inheriting these days in their mid to late 60s. Not exactly what people have in mind when you say "younger generations".

Yes we have had this argument before with @HYUFD. I'm 67 and still waiting to inherit. I might get nothing if my father needs it to pay for a home. If he doesn't need to do that it will be split with my sister which halves it. Having got to 67 I have paid off my mortgage and what I will inherit from his home is 1/10 of the value of my own home.

So none of this can be considered a transfer of property by parents to their children. At best I will inherit some money that I don't need. 40 years ago it would have been useful, but now not so much. Don't know where HYUFD gets his ideas about youngster inheriting property from their parents from. In most cases an inherited house is sold and the money split by 60+ year old children.

In the Home Counties certainly many if not most now get parental assistance with deposits in their 30s

Most will see their parents die by their mid 50s not mid 60s on average life expectancy and thus inherit too

Well that is utter nonsense because we have been here before and I went to the ONS data at the time and did the calculations. Firstly you have to live long enough to have children. Assume that is about 30. Your life expectancy at 30 is significantly higher than at birth. Then of course both parents have to die before you inherit. So l remember looking up and doing the calc for the age at death of the oldest of two individuals still alive at 30. On average that age is 95. That gives the average age of inheritance at 65.

You have used life expectancy of one individual and from birth. 5 year olds don't have children.

Re parental help with property - can you verify that stat? I know nobody that has.

'...according to a survey commissioned by Legal & General which found 56% of those making their first home purchase did so using a gift from family or friends.'
https://www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/lending-news/half-first-time-buyers-35-using-bank-mum-dad-12-10-2020/

'The “bank of mum and dad” will have supported nearly half (49%) of all first-time buyer housing transactions this year, according to a forecast.'
https://www.independent.co.uk/money/bank-of-mum-and-dad-supported-49-of-firsttime-buyer-purchases-in-2021-b1943376.html

CarlottaVance said:

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova just now: “February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed. Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired.”

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1493501942072496129?s=20&t=R0vkYao7GH5-Ms-kwtdc3Q

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

I think that's wrong.
What bothers Putin's Russia is that it might become a successful and prosperous democracy.

Not much chance of that. It has one of the worst performing economies in Europe since independence.

I would like to see it become so, and joining the EU may well improve it a lot, NATO less so. There also needs to be a recognition of the new borders. Crimea and the Donbass cannot return without becoming much more Russian.

Well there's zero chance of it under Russian control.

YBarddCwsc said:

Rev said:

It's very widely rumoured in C of E circles that Welby pushed hard for Paula Vennells to become Bishop of London in 2017 (he has a thing about people who have held senior positions before their church careers).

Vennells should be made Archbish of Canterbury and told to apply her no-nonsense business model to the Church.

She could implement the largest branch modernisation programme in ecclesiastical history.

Failing rural parishes could be shut, vicars sent to prison on trumped-up charges.

It will really transform the C of E into a tough & lean organisation, ready to face the challenges of the twenty-first century.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Heathener said:

Well apparently Russia has started pulling back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815

Not entirely sure I would trust them saying this but, as you know, I've never believed they intended to invade in the first place.

Johnson and Truss achieve their aim: hold the front pages.

Incredible.

Nobody in this country takes them seriously but they just growl at Vladimir and he backs off.

What a wimp.

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

kle4 said:

Djokovic: I'm absolutely an anti vaxxer but please dont call me an anti vaxxer as I know people don't like that word.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60354068

Nah. He just doesn't want to take the vaccine. Doesn't make him an Anti-Vaxxer. He wants sovereignty, to coin a well used PB term, over his body.

So how does he stop breathing in viruses ?
Daft sod.

JosiasJessop said:

Heathener said:

Well apparently Russia has started pulling back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815

Not entirely sure I would trust them saying this but, as you know, I've never believed they intended to invade in the first place.

Johnson and Truss achieve their aim: hold the front pages.

The idea that Johnson - incompetent in nearly everything he does - has somehow engineered this situation is laughable. The government has just reacted to events.

On what basis did you disbelieve they were going to invade? I mean, given Putin's track record?

Heathener said:

I'm still not convinced Johnson will go before the General Election.

He's such a slippery snake. He's obviously trying to play Churchill, which includes ramping up rhetoric and getting the tabloids on board. It's not just about saving Ukraine. It's about saving Boris Johnson.

This is different but it saved Margaret Thatcher in 1981/2.

Mind you, with the Mauritius raising their flag on the Chagos Islands perhaps he could launch a Task Force to the Indian Ocean?!

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

kle4 said:

Djokovic: I'm absolutely an anti vaxxer but please dont call me an anti vaxxer as I know people don't like that word.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60354068

Nah. He just doesn't want to take the vaccine. Doesn't make him an Anti-Vaxxer. He wants sovereignty, to coin a well used PB term, over his body.

So how does he stop breathing in viruses ?
Daft sod.

He has decided that he prefers to breathe in the virus than inject himself with a vaccine that is less than 24 months old.

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Heathener said:

Well apparently Russia has started pulling back: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-60372815

Not entirely sure I would trust them saying this but, as you know, I've never believed they intended to invade in the first place.

Johnson and Truss achieve their aim: hold the front pages.

On what basis did you disbelieve they were going to invade? I mean, given Putin's track record?

Insufficient forces to risk a full-scale invasion. Putin is not that stupid. Russian military might is exaggerated.

I suspect him of gaming this for other gains, one of which is an assurance that Ukraine never joins NATO, which frankly I can understand from Russia's point of view.

NATO could do with sorting out its global priorities but then so could world leaders.

JosiasJessop said:

kamski said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

I think that's wrong.
What bothers Putin's Russia is that it might become a successful and prosperous democracy.

Not much chance of that. It has one of the worst performing economies in Europe since independence.

I would like to see it become so, and joining the EU may well improve it a lot, NATO less so. There also needs to be a recognition of the new borders. Crimea and the Donbass cannot return without becoming much more Russian.

Well there's zero chance of it under Russian control.

Ukraine is really poor. Nominal GDP per capita is the second lowest in Europe after Moldova (IMF figures), Russia's GDP per capita is 3 times higher. If it was in the EU it would be by far the poorest country.

You may want to wonder how much Russia's political and military interventions over the last couple of decades has led to that situation. I mean, it's hardly conducive towards attracting inward investment, is it?

"Yes large multinational: please invest in a new plant here, only for it to be destroyed/nationalised by Russia after they invade/make us a satellite."

Foxy said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

The reports from Canada on how peaceful protests are being dealt with, freezing people's bank accounts etc, are really concerning. That sort of thing shouldn't happen in a free society.

"Annoying" protesters will be treated much more harshly here under the new police bill.

Theuniondivvie said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

The reports from Canada on how peaceful protests are being dealt with, freezing people's bank accounts etc, are really concerning. That sort of thing shouldn't happen in a free society.

Nice to see your attitude to anti vaxxers has softened, you’re usually in the hang and flog the selfish bastards brigade as I recall.

Leon said:

Heathener said:

Leon said:

OTOH if Putin hasn’t invaded by Friday he’s clearly not going to and has proved himself a pussy and the world can point and laugh, and, more importantly, I still get to go to Odessa in March

Language that doesn't help anything.

As you know, I've never believed he wants to invade.

If Ukraine backed off its attempt to join NATO it would help. Understandably a very aggressive act in Russian eyes.

You think Vladimir Putin reads PB, and me calling him a “pussy” on this blog might be the final, intolerable western aggression that pushes him into total tank war in Eastern Europe?

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

kle4 said:

Djokovic: I'm absolutely an anti vaxxer but please dont call me an anti vaxxer as I know people don't like that word.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60354068

Nah. He just doesn't want to take the vaccine. Doesn't make him an Anti-Vaxxer. He wants sovereignty, to coin a well used PB term, over his body.

So how does he stop breathing in viruses ?
Daft sod.

He has decided that he prefers to breathe in the virus than inject himself with a vaccine that is less than 24 months old.