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The betting reflects a bit more confidence that Johnson will survive – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,640
edited February 2022 in General
imageThe betting reflects a bit more confidence that Johnson will survive – politicalbetting.com

With no move yet against the PM the 2022 exit gamble on the betting markets has edged down a bit and now stands at a 65% chance. It was nearly 80%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    edited January 2022
    1st unlike SKS
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,267
    bigjohnowls said:

    1st unlike SKS

    Like SKS!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    SandyRentool said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    1st unlike SKS

    Like SKS!
    No mate
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    It was much more fun when all you needed was a stalking horse.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    rottenborough said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    It was much more fun when all you needed was a stalking horse.
    Must be in trouble surely to need to do that
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Is the Truss story traceable to Boris? It looks like Simon Calder’s planespotter friends playing with a flight tracking website to me. A Boris leak would have gone to the lobby correspondent or pol ed, not the travel desk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
    There is one other quality that Prime Ministers need. The killer instinct.

    He has that. They, I suspect, do not.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Yes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    El_Capitano said:

    Is the Truss story traceable to Boris? It looks like Simon Calder’s planespotter friends playing with a flight tracking website to me. A Boris leak would have gone to the lobby correspondent or pol ed, not the travel desk.

    Even cake isn't traceable to Boris even when he has an Alan Partridge chocolate face
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,706
    edited January 2022
    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    El_Capitano said:

    Is the Truss story traceable to Boris? It looks like Simon Calder’s planespotter friends playing with a flight tracking website to me. A Boris leak would have gone to the lobby correspondent or pol ed, not the travel desk.

    No idea

    Tell me when will you be mine

    Quantas, Quantas Quantas Quantas!!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,412
    He wont last to the end of the year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,695
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,803
    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Good news for Labour
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,695
    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
    Johnson has always worked like a gang boss. Loyalty is the only thing required.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    Yokes said:

    He wont last to the end of the year.

    End of the the Chinese year? That's cutting it close.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    I don't think you take the immediate hit of that, and eat up political capital with backbenchers, without thinking it was the best option. However, as something popular to u-turn on if pushback was too hard, it's handy to have when in a pinch.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    No cake was involved
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,654
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,402
    Please, Boris, survive until the next GE, so that the a Tories are totally f*cked for generations to come. My wettest dream, even wetter than TSEs dreams of stepmums on Pornhub, is that the tories win even fewer seats than the SNP and the LibDems at the next election. Unfortunately, because of the deluded HYUFDs and the like, it’s unlikely to happen. But the rest of us can still hope.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,074
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    Yes, I don't think he's that scheming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,706
    edited January 2022
    Fairliered said:

    Please, Boris, survive until the next GE, so that the a Tories are totally f*cked for generations to come. My wettest dream, even wetter than TSEs dreams of stepmums on Pornhub, is that the tories win even fewer seats than the SNP and the LibDems at the next election. Unfortunately, because of the deluded HYUFDs and the like, it’s unlikely to happen. But the rest of us can still hope.

    How is that going to happen? Even now most polls show a hung parliament not even a Labour majority let alone a landslide.

    Only way the LDs and SNP could ever get more seats than the Tories is if RefUK overtook the Tories as the main party of the right and split the rightwing vote, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993 when the populist right Reform Party beat them in the popular vote and on seats
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited January 2022
    On the delays at Dover, which seem to be a combination of hours spent getting to the port plus hours waiting in the port plus hours getting the paperwork in the first place. It's unsustainable.

    Companies won't pay for drivers to do nothing for random days. It's not just the unnecessary wage costs; it plays havoc with your schedules.

    Not the government cares about loss of trade. It just cares there should be no reportable, visible queues.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,475
    El_Capitano said:

    Is the Truss story traceable to Boris? It looks like Simon Calder’s planespotter friends playing with a flight tracking website to me. A Boris leak would have gone to the lobby correspondent or pol ed, not the travel desk.

    Only if you wanted it to be known it was a Boris leak.
    He is a journalist. He knows other journalists. Who drink with journalists. Even travel ones.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Johnson being the person who literally had to write two essays one for and one against Brexit before chucking them in the air to see which one land top side up and deciding to go with that view.

    Total, life-long, ardent Brexiteer.

    Yeh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,534
    edited January 2022
    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Good news for Labour
    Stephen Bush in today's Newstatesman thinks not. Starmer would be better to be rid of Johnson he thinks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,475
    edited January 2022
    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    He will utterly destroy all his rivals.
    He'll take the entire Tory Party with him if necessary.
    Happy days.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    rottenborough said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Johnson being the person who literally had to write two essays one for and one against Brexit before chucking them in the air to see which one land top side up and deciding to go with that view.

    Total, life-long, ardent Brexiteer.

    Yeh.
    Well yeah but Boris rules don't apply to other politicians
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    rottenborough said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Good news for Labour
    Stephen Bush in today's Newstatesman thinks not. Starmer would be better to be rid of Johnson he thinks.
    I agree but I can't see it happening
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    He strikes now or he will never wear the crown imho.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Do you think Boris will give up that easily.

    He is not a rational man

    Britain Trump
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,534
    bigjohnowls said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Do you think Boris will give up that easily.

    He is not a rational man

    Britain Trump
    He won't give up, but it night be Rishi's best chance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    bigjohnowls said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Do you think Boris will give up that easily.

    He is not a rational man

    Britain Trump
    Sorry WO I misread what you said you meant Sunak

    As someone said earlier more likely to come over all David Miliband
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,756
    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Do you think Boris will give up that easily.

    He is not a rational man

    Britain Trump
    He won't give up, but it night be Rishi's best chance.
    Yes apologies I misread
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    No chance of 4,5 or 6 imo
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited January 2022
    ..
    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
    But also because Sunak wanted to keep borrowing down so he could do a tax cut later on. They would take the NI increase hit now, but didn't factor in the Partygate shambles.

    Edit if they do row back on the NI increase they can't really do the same for health spending. They will have to borrow it.
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    I'm quite interested (and astonished) in the £4.3B of Bounce Back and other Loans that have been written off. I wonder if HM Treasury will publish the names of the Companies and Company numbers that had have not repaid their loans or have defaulted (after all they published the names of businesses and amounts of furlough claims for some reason). Any sole traders, and partners with their names and addresses and the details of any accountacy/auditing firms that verified any information prior to the loans being given.
    I think this is a huge scandal. Perish the thought that any of the people involved were/are donating to a political party.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    Isn’t traditional Tory wisdom that the assassin never wears the crown, though?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    2 being an attempt - classic Johnson style - to divert attention from the actual issue.

    5a. Cummings drops the big one. Photo of Johnson on the job with a stepmum in the garden of No 10 or some such.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,803
    edited January 2022
    rottenborough said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Good news for Labour
    Stephen Bush in today's Newstatesman thinks not. Starmer would be better to be rid of Johnson he thinks.
    I think it will all blow up in his fat face
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,123
    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,123
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,654
    El_Capitano said:

    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    Isn’t traditional Tory wisdom that the assassin never wears the crown, though?
    Wasn't that from when stalking horse candidates were needed. The rules are quite different now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,292
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
    Being accused of Brexit heresy is a convenient way of undermining someone with the core support, I imagine.

    Problem is it is getting more and more ridiculous an assertion, as the hardcore remainers are gone, and the lukewarm remainers are on board. It's not very credible to label any internal critic as insufficiently Brexity anymore.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,654
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    FF43 said:

    ..

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
    But also because Sunak wanted to keep borrowing down so he could do a tax cut later on. They would take the NI increase hit now, but didn't factor in the Partygate shambles.

    Edit if they do row back on the NI increase they can't really do the same for health spending. They will have to borrow it.
    Newsnight were saying that due to technicalities there was £13b more to spend than OBR forecast so that may be a way around things.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,476
    Gallowgate said:

    rottenborough said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Good news for Labour
    Stephen Bush in today's Newstatesman thinks not. Starmer would be better to be rid of Johnson he thinks.
    I think it will all blow up in his fat face
    Bit harsh on Stephen Bush there :smiley:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/27/rishi-sunak-fighting-hard-stop-invoking-article-16-claim-boris/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    bigjohnowls said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/27/rishi-sunak-fighting-hard-stop-invoking-article-16-claim-boris/

    Nominal Brexiteer is the smear here re Sunak
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,074
    Rishi Sunak's chances of becoming the next PM went up a fair bit today IMO, as a result of the Liz Truss plane story.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,680
    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    As a Conservative, I would have thought you would consider all this Corbyn cakeism (inappropriate under the circumstances, I know) to be very, very bad.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,680
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
    I suspect Sunak's brand of Brexit would have been more EEA, Norway plus or Canada plus, plus than "oven ready for the microwave".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,654
    Mexicanpete said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
    I suspect Sunak's brand of Brexit would have been more EEA, Norway plus or Canada plus, plus than "oven ready for the microwave".
    I don't think he would have supported staying in the EEA, at least not based on his pronouncements on things like freeports.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,680
    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
    I suspect Sunak's brand of Brexit would have been more EEA, Norway plus or Canada plus, plus than "oven ready for the microwave".
    I don't think he would have supported staying in the EEA, at least not based on his pronouncements on things like freeports.
    You are probably right. I don't know too much about the guy, although he seems to be a very practical operator. I suspect he would have thought through the politics of Northern Ireland with a greater degree of empathy than Johnson. It's all about squaring the circle with compromise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,998
    Off topic

    Do you guys have any idea how smug getting wordle in 2 tries feels ?
  • megalomaniacs4umegalomaniacs4u Posts: 327
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic

    Do you guys have any idea how smug getting wordle in 2 tries feels ?

    Did it by accident last week, my default 2nd guess was the word...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,074
    edited January 2022
    98% of adults in the UK have antibodies to Covid-19.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,998
    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
    Truss is out of her depth at the cheese counter. Sunak certainly isn't
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
    Truss is out of her depth at the cheese counter. Sunak certainly isn't
    I very much doubt Sunak would be much use behind a cheese counter. He doesn’t look like a man who sees much of a point in cheese.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    Sunak’s support of freeports is one of the worrying things about him, since there appears to be no economic evidence they have any useful effect.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,457
    Mexicanpete said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    "Truss wasted 500 tonnes of co2

    Cost to taxpayer a cool half million"

    "Sunak is a plastic Brexiteer not a true believer"

    Proper hatchet job stuff

    Eh?

    Sunak is a true Brexit believer, and has been for a long time.
    I suspect Sunak's brand of Brexit would have been more EEA, Norway plus or Canada plus, plus than "oven ready for the microwave".
    Whenever I think of the oven ready Brexit, I think of a pop tart which explodes upon the opening of the microwave door, scalding the face of onlookers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,074
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic

    Do you guys have any idea how smug getting wordle in 2 tries feels ?

    Having a go at the moment, and I've got 2 green and one yellow on the first try.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,123
    Pulpstar said:

    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris is a total bastard isn't he?
    Far from the jolly, affable clown he likes to portray. Some dark karma being created.

    Suspect that both Sunak and Truss are out of their depth here.

    Brutal.

    Politics is a contact sport.
    Truss is out of her depth at the cheese counter. Sunak certainly isn't
    If you can see him over the top of the cheese counter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,617
    Gardenwalker said:

    Sunak’s support of freeports is one of the worrying things about him, since there appears to be no economic evidence they have any useful effect.

    The economic effect of free zones, is proportional to the amount of freedom they have from taxes, regulations and bureaucracy that apply to onshore companies.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,419
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic

    Do you guys have any idea how smug getting wordle in 2 tries feels ?

    No. Never done wordle. Or sodoku come to that, although I can type wordle without having to check the spelling.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,419
    El_Capitano said:

    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    Isn’t traditional Tory wisdom that the assassin never wears the crown, though?
    The problem with Sunak resigning is that it does not get him closer to Number 10 because it does not necessarily lead to a vonc which is the first stage in replacing Boris. It just removes Sunak from the scene and creates a new rival for the top job, in the shape of whoever is the new Chancellor.

    Jeremy Hunt is not a front-runner because he is no longer in the Cabinet. The Saj did honourably resign (or decline) the Chancellorship yet he is not a front-runner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,453
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    El_Capitano said:

    NickPalmer said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Rehashed mutterings about Sunak writing off £4.3m of fraudulent claims without Boris agreement doing rounds.

    Not exactly scotched by Boris at PMQs was it.

    Mutual destruction game here at play surely a high risk strategy is it not.

    I don't get it I thought Boris was pretty safe now.

    If the Gray report is even vaguely damaging, I think Sunak's best chance might be to resign very soon afterwards, or even immediately.
    Yes, fairly easy to envisage a sequence:

    1. Report is published, and fairly damaging.
    2. Boris expresses deep regret and a fresh look at policy too, starting with cancelling the NI rise
    3. Tory MPs say well, OK, he's making an effort, maybe give him another chance.
    4. Sunak resigns - indefensible financial policy coupled with party outrage.
    5. Tory MPs say oooh, well, in that case...
    6. VONC happens, and narrowly passes.

    Isn’t traditional Tory wisdom that the assassin never wears the crown, though?
    The problem with Sunak resigning is that it does not get him closer to Number 10 because it does not necessarily lead to a vonc which is the first stage in replacing Boris. It just removes Sunak from the scene and creates a new rival for the top job, in the shape of whoever is the new Chancellor.

    Jeremy Hunt is not a front-runner because he is no longer in the Cabinet. The Saj did honourably resign (or decline) the Chancellorship yet he is not a front-runner.
    As far as the last two are concerned, that was then.
    We’re now in a rather different situation, with a severely weakened PM.

    If you’re only looking at it in leadership terms, then it’s not obvious that remaining in while the PM stitches him up over NI does anything for Sunak either.
    So waiting is for him probably no safer than rolling the dice now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,453
    Protests flare across Poland after death of young mother denied an abortion
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jan/27/protests-flare-across-poland-after-death-of-young-mother-denied-an-abortion
    … On 21 December the heartbeat of one of the twins stopped and, according to Agnieszka’s family, the doctors refused to remove it, quoting the current abortion legislation. They waited several days until the second foetus also died. A further two days passed before the pregnancy was terminated on 31 December, according to the family.
    A priest was then summoned by hospital staff to perform a funeral for the twins, the family said.
    The family say that the doctors refused to terminate the pregnancy earlier, citing Poland’s abortion legislation. “Her husband begged the doctors to save his wife, even at the cost of the pregnancy,” Agnieszka’s twin sister, Wioletta Paciepnik, said on Tuesday...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,419
    We are in a phony war now until the postponed Gray report drops next week.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,419
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    We are in a phony war now until the postponed Gray report drops next week.

    The question, while we wait for Gray, is whether attention can be moved to the question of animals out of Afghanistan. Boris has denied being involved but there is email evidence that "Number 10" was.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,331
    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
    But also because Sunak wanted to keep borrowing down so he could do a tax cut later on. They would take the NI increase hit now, but didn't factor in the Partygate shambles.

    Edit if they do row back on the NI increase they can't really do the same for health spending. They will have to borrow it.
    Newsnight were saying that due to technicalities there was £13b more to spend than OBR forecast so that may be a way around things.

    That's borrowing undershooting it's target, I think, or tax revenues higher than forecast.

    If they hadn't inflated the housing market they would also have however much they lost to pay for the Stamp Duty holiday.

    It would be far better spent on reducing energy bills, as that would impact inflation if done properly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,331
    Morning all.

    LOL - More tourists Cumming to Barnard Castle.

    https://news.sky.com/story/barnard-castle-site-made-famous-by-dominic-cummings-among-hidden-gems-britons-rediscovered-during-pandemic-12526760
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,453
    MattW said:

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
    But also because Sunak wanted to keep borrowing down so he could do a tax cut later on. They would take the NI increase hit now, but didn't factor in the Partygate shambles.

    Edit if they do row back on the NI increase they can't really do the same for health spending. They will have to borrow it.
    Newsnight were saying that due to technicalities there was £13b more to spend than OBR forecast so that may be a way around things.

    That's borrowing undershooting it's target, I think, or tax revenues higher than forecast.

    If they hadn't inflated the housing market they would also have however much they lost to pay for the Stamp Duty holiday.

    It would be far better spent on reducing energy bills, as that would impact inflation if done properly.
    Rising interest rates are going to push up borrowing costs, though. The window for that ‘windfall’ (an odd description for a reduction in what continues to be a historically high borrowing requirement) is a fairly narrow one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,331
    edited January 2022
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
    Do we have any evidence at all to support BJO's claim wrt to Truss's trip?

    The first piece I saw on that was a piece of misleading drivel in the Independent.

    eg the basis for the £500k claim is 'from a source in the charter industry', which the Indy turns into 'the cost to the taxpayer'. Instead of doing some journalism and finding out what the actual cost was - quite accessible via FOI.

    I was going to put in a complaint to the independent regulator, but for some reason the Indy has chosen not to have one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,331
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    ..

    rottenborough said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    With the polls now back well under a 10% Labour lead and Tory rebels shooting blanks looks like Boris is safe. Unless something dramatically new emerges from Gray.

    Having ended all Covid restrictions and maybe even cancelling the NI rise, Boris is back to his old populist, cake for all, self

    Is it too cynical to think that Johnson invented the NI rise merely to have some 'cake' to hand back to a grateful public further down the line if things got a bit hairy with the old focus groups?
    It is. For once this wasn't Johnson's muck-up; it was Sunak's.
    If there is a budget issue PMs cannot escape responsibility for it. At its most ridiculous you see something walked back after a budget speech as though the PM was not aware of what was going to be in it.
    More precisely what I think happened is that Johnson wanted the big claim on sorting social care while Sunak accepted health needed more cash following Covid. The NI move was the fudge, but basically Sunak got his way.
    Certainly the Treasury did not want more borrowing using index-lined bonds as they could see where inflation was going given that the BoE had printed money like it was going out of fashion and Biden's America was doing the same.
    But also because Sunak wanted to keep borrowing down so he could do a tax cut later on. They would take the NI increase hit now, but didn't factor in the Partygate shambles.

    Edit if they do row back on the NI increase they can't really do the same for health spending. They will have to borrow it.
    Newsnight were saying that due to technicalities there was £13b more to spend than OBR forecast so that may be a way around things.

    That's borrowing undershooting it's target, I think, or tax revenues higher than forecast.

    If they hadn't inflated the housing market they would also have however much they lost to pay for the Stamp Duty holiday.

    It would be far better spent on reducing energy bills, as that would impact inflation if done properly.
    Rising interest rates are going to push up borrowing costs, though. The window for that ‘windfall’ (an odd description for a reduction in what continues to be a historically high borrowing requirement) is a fairly narrow one.
    Indeed.

    If inflation is reduced by preventing energy price rises for what is a short-term energy crisis, it will undermine the need for more interest rate rises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,989
    edited January 2022
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.
    If I read its technical spec correctly, it would have to refuel twice en route. Which might actually have been more expensive.

    I think Raab has also used this charter jet Airbus 321 to visit Singapore and Indonesia as well, without comeback.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson-brexit-coronavirus-raf-plane-jet-travel-voyager-zz336-1104200

    So there’s clearly somebody manoeuvring in the background.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,617
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
    Do we have any evidence at all to support BJO's claim wrt to Truss's trip?

    The first piece I saw on that was a piece of misleading drivel in the Independent.

    eg the basis for the £500k claim is 'from a source in the charter industry', which the Indy turns into 'the cost to the taxpayer'. Instead of doing some journalism and finding out what the actual cost was - quite accessible via FOI.

    I was going to put in a complaint to the independent regulator, but for some reason the Indy has chosen not to have one.
    £500k sounds a reasonable ballpark figure for chartering a plane for the trip, but will be a lot higher than the marginal cost of operating a plane that’s leased by the government already.

    If there were more than 30 or 40 government people on the plane, the cost is probably a wash compared to commercial biz class flights, if there were any journalists or non-government staff on the plane, they will have been billed which reduces the cost to government further.

    There were also security and logistics considerations, Covid protocols around commercial flights, and the background of the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

    It’s one of these stories that makes for a great headline, but doesn’t really stand up once you start digging. But for those ploting against Ms Truss, the headline will be enough.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,074
    Done Wordle 3 times, got it once in 3 goes and twice in 4. Not sure whether that's good or average.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,532
    Good morning everybody.

    I suspect our PM has done his greased piglet trick again; Sue Gray's report is in the long grass and we've moved on to a 'will he, won't he' about NI contributions.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Morning all.

    Have to admit this whole thing about the dogs being taken out of Afghanistan story does seem quite convenient for BJ. It takes the focus off the Downing Street parties, you’ve got other ministers backing his view and it’s also a topic that most people are not likely to get excited about (if anything, I suspect, a fair few people in this country would have preferred the dogs to come out than the people).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,419
    edited January 2022
    .
    MrEd said:

    Morning all.

    Have to admit this whole thing about the dogs being taken out of Afghanistan story does seem quite convenient for BJ. It takes the focus off the Downing Street parties, you’ve got other ministers backing his view and it’s also a topic that most people are not likely to get excited about (if anything, I suspect, a fair few people in this country would have preferred the dogs to come out than the people).

    The risk for Boris is that if he can be tied to the decision to evacuate the cute dogs, then he will have lied when he denied it, and he has confirmed in PMQs that he should resign in that case. ETA or has he?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,989
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    .

    MrEd said:

    Morning all.

    Have to admit this whole thing about the dogs being taken out of Afghanistan story does seem quite convenient for BJ. It takes the focus off the Downing Street parties, you’ve got other ministers backing his view and it’s also a topic that most people are not likely to get excited about (if anything, I suspect, a fair few people in this country would have preferred the dogs to come out than the people).

    The risk for Boris is that if he can be tied to the decision to evacuate the cute dogs, then he will have lied when he denied it, and he has confirmed in PMQs that he should resign in that case.
    Not that you’re wrong, but isn’t it also the case we know he’s a compulsive and habitual liar who has never told the truth in his life anyway, so that’s also priced in?

    Every single Tory MP deserves to forfeit their seats for not having got rid of him already. There’s not even the excuse that he’s doing well as Prime Minister.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
    Do we have any evidence at all to support BJO's claim wrt to Truss's trip?

    The first piece I saw on that was a piece of misleading drivel in the Independent.

    eg the basis for the £500k claim is 'from a source in the charter industry', which the Indy turns into 'the cost to the taxpayer'. Instead of doing some journalism and finding out what the actual cost was - quite accessible via FOI.

    I was going to put in a complaint to the independent regulator, but for some reason the Indy has chosen not to have one.
    £500k sounds a reasonable ballpark figure for chartering a plane for the trip, but will be a lot higher than the marginal cost of operating a plane that’s leased by the government already.

    If there were more than 30 or 40 government people on the plane, the cost is probably a wash compared to commercial biz class flights
    And all 40 of those government people absolutely had to travel business class, of course.

    ‘Public servants should spend taxpayers’ money with the care they would give to their own. This would be reflected in changes such as travelling by economy rather than business class’

    - Liz Truss, 2007
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,202
    What Boris may be doing in undermining his cabinet colleagues like this is persuading many dithering MPs that anyone claiming that if we only get rid of Boris all our problems go away is delusional. If there is no clear advantage in a replacement, which there threatened to be with Rishi for a while, then ripping the party apart looks a lot less atteactive.

    As others have said it is brutal politics but you don't get to be PM by being nice. Who could have imagined that the long serving and excellent Ken Clarke would end his career as not a Tory? Why is someone as capable as Hunt, compared with most of his cabinet, still on the back benches? Who was quite happy to have remainers arguing that it was "only" £200m rather than £350m a week that went to Brussels net? Boris is not the nice man he pretends to be and a bad enemy to have. But that is why he is PM and likely, in my view, to remain so for some time to come.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,989
    El_Capitano said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
    Do we have any evidence at all to support BJO's claim wrt to Truss's trip?

    The first piece I saw on that was a piece of misleading drivel in the Independent.

    eg the basis for the £500k claim is 'from a source in the charter industry', which the Indy turns into 'the cost to the taxpayer'. Instead of doing some journalism and finding out what the actual cost was - quite accessible via FOI.

    I was going to put in a complaint to the independent regulator, but for some reason the Indy has chosen not to have one.
    £500k sounds a reasonable ballpark figure for chartering a plane for the trip, but will be a lot higher than the marginal cost of operating a plane that’s leased by the government already.

    If there were more than 30 or 40 government people on the plane, the cost is probably a wash compared to commercial biz class flights
    And all 40 of those government people absolutely had to travel business class, of course.

    ‘Public servants should spend taxpayers’ money with the care they would give to their own. This would be reflected in changes such as travelling by economy rather than business class’

    - Liz Truss, 2007
    You mean she’s changed her view now it’s her doing the travelling on expenses?

    I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

    Hope you’re feeling a bit better this morning.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,680
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see team Boris is allegedly

    1 Blaming Sunak for blocking triggering Article 16 and wanting to stick with NI rise despite cost of living crisis

    2 Accusing Truss of wasting taxpayers money on private jet flights to, from and around Australia

    I think it was pointed out on the past thread that there is little point in having a plane painted in GB colours for trade missions if you don't use it for trips like Truss's Australia jaunt.

    One might wonder why the Embassy staff in Canberra were cut to the point that they needed fly ins by Ms "any deal is better than no deal" Truss.
    The idea that embassy staff could simply replace visits/interactions with leading members of the government is laughable. International diplomacy is made of meetings like these.
    My experience is that 90% of the actual work is done before the big guns arrive to settle and remaining thorny issues and take the credit.
    No doubt, but that 10% can't be replaced with more meetings with the embassy staff.
    Do we have any evidence at all to support BJO's claim wrt to Truss's trip?

    The first piece I saw on that was a piece of misleading drivel in the Independent.

    eg the basis for the £500k claim is 'from a source in the charter industry', which the Indy turns into 'the cost to the taxpayer'. Instead of doing some journalism and finding out what the actual cost was - quite accessible via FOI.

    I was going to put in a complaint to the independent regulator, but for some reason the Indy has chosen not to have one.
    £500k sounds a reasonable ballpark figure for chartering a plane for the trip, but will be a lot higher than the marginal cost of operating a plane that’s leased by the government already.

    If there were more than 30 or 40 government people on the plane, the cost is probably a wash compared to commercial biz class flights, if there were any journalists or non-government staff on the plane, they will have been billed which reduces the cost to government further.

    There were also security and logistics considerations, Covid protocols around commercial flights, and the background of the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

    It’s one of these stories that makes for a great headline, but doesn’t really stand up once you start digging. But for those ploting against Ms Truss, the headline will be enough.
    Hard working voters are about to lose their shirts on energy bills and the Johnsonian apologists are claiming what good value for money Truss spaffing half a million for some flights to Australia in a plane that Johnson spent £900k painting is It looks dreadful.

    When Jeremy Hunt was Foreign Secretary in May's Government, he sat in the row before me in the BACK of an ANA flight from Tokyo.

    We are watching Johnson's rerun of the Court of Louis XIV. It will end, metaphorically speaking, in the same way. The question is when?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,665
    The prime minister is a hostage of his own MPs. Boris Johnson sits in his Commons study and they come in and make demands. However brutal their assessment or sweeping their requests, he does his best to say he has heard them and will address their concerns.

    It is a bizarre situation for someone whose personal appeal was so key to the election victory just two years ago, but he can’t afford to make a single extra enemy. His MPs have his fate in their hands.

    Backbenchers speak even more bluntly to those arranging the “save Boris” operation. They demand changes to the No 10 team and say that these should come straight after the publication of Sue Gray’s report into the Downing Street parties. They are adamant they will brook no delay to this. If things don’t start to move, they warn that they will conclude Johnson isn’t serious about changing.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-a-hostage-with-no-hope-of-escape-n82dg9qq6
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