Johnson going could lead to CON leading the polls again – politicalbetting.com
Johnson going could lead to CON leading the polls again – politicalbetting.com
The above Wikipedia table is of the opinion polls for the final 6 weeks of 1990 when Mrs Thatcher was effectively pushed out by her MPs and John Major became prime minister.
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Hopefully the Church Debating Club will stay in the previous thread
Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
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14m
Number 10’s spokesman has previously promised to publish report in full.
Odd that we’re being told there’s still a decision to be made by the PM about what’s published
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1486273439543533570
People (like HYUFD) would do well to pay heed. It's written by someone who excels at betting posts and frequently calling it right. Some of the recent successes, e.g. Chesham & Amersham, are already the stuff of legend.
Margaret Thatcher had reached the end of her electoral road and the tory party, in part thanks to the assassin Hesseltine, took action before the voters did ... and they went on to win a very surprising win at the following General Election under John Major. Almost certainly one victory too far for them: if Labour had experienced the ERM Black Wednesday how things would have been different!! I'm not sure Tony Blair would have ever become PM.
Tony Blair exited stage left (literally leaving the HoC Chamber after saying goodbye) before the voters booted him out, which they certainly would have.
And now the tories have an electoral liability, a man so unsuited to the office of PM that it's by now simply a question of whether the Conservative MPs have the courage and gumption to remove him before the voters do in 2024.
A key doctrine of the Catholic Church is that what you do is the key determinant of whether you are saved or not. The focus. therefore, is on people's behaviour. It can also lead to greater acceptance, in some cases, of people's choices.
For a lot of the Protestant Church, their roots like with Calvinism whose (probably) key element is - in a nutshell - it doesn't matter what you do on Earth because it has been predetermined that God has already saved you. In my experience, that can make them less tolerant because their view is you either get it (and so you are saved) or you don't (and therefore you are damned, so not worth bothering with).
The CoE encompasses both wings so you are likely to get a range of views within its congregation.
Here endeth the lesson.
No doubt whatsoever that BJ is dragging down his party. However, there is no guarantee that once the pressure is removed the rubber duck will bob back up to the surface ( @kinabalu - is that the analogy?)
The longer this goes on, the harder it will be to disinfect the Tory brand. If the Con MPs now act promptly I could see consistent Con poll leads again by early 2023. If they prevaricate then I think Starmer’s got this in the bag. The defection was exquisite timing.
Davey, Starmer and Sturgeon need the Tory circus to continue its farewell tour til the very final show.
Hi guys! Drawing any conclusions from this?
Constitutionally there was no need for a ballot at all. The PM remains in office until a VONC in Parliament. Thatcher could have ignored her party's 'local poll' and stood her ground. "I'm staying until HoC passes a VONC'" she might well have said. How many Tory MPs would have failed to support her?
This is not irrelevant to the current situation. The Conservative Party is nothing more than a voluntary association. It has no constitutional significance at all.
"And it shall be, when he shall be guilty in one of these things, that he shall confess that he hath sinned in that thing"
or 2 Samuel 10:24
"...said unto the Lord, I have sinned greatly in that I have done: and now, I beseech thee, O Lord, take away the iniquity of thy servant; for I have done very foolishly."
I think this time might be different. This might be wishful thinking.
My sense (older posters can correct me here) is that people wanted different policies to what Thatcher was offering.
Dreading the moment SeanT parks himself back on here after several glasses and begins bragging about how he hates teenagers and everything they stand for, except seducing (and buying) them for sex. But it's all okay because he believes in God and thinks atheists are almost as bad as millenials.
Which kinda illustrates the point: the rank hypocrisy of some of those who claim to believe in God.
They are perhaps in danger of going too far though given how steep a drop there has been so quick.
You don't recover from that.
An interesting point was made by a lawyer on Sky this morning that the May 2020 events carry a fixed penalty fine of £100 but those on the eve of Prince Philips funeral carry a fine of £10,000 as they were under different regulations
He said the police investigation take into account the covid regulations at the time of the alleged offence, and these did differ over the period
He also added that the actual organisers of the events could face a misconduct in public office charge which can lead to a prison sentence
I don't believe in Christianity, in no small part because Christianity doesn't believe in Christ. And as a libertarian, Christ is too left-wing anyway for my politics.
But that doesn't mean I'm not interested in the subject. Just as someone could be interested in what Starmer has to say, without being a socialist.
Christ was very socially liberal for his day and age. All his stories are from a liberal perspective. There's nothing conservative he had to say - and the fact that you pretend to believe in Christ while clearly wilfully not understanding him at all doesn't change that.
Your inability to name a single socially conservative thing he had to say, while still pretending he was a social conservative, speaks volumes. You might as well say Karl Marx was economically conservative.
Presbyterianism also regards the conflation of Church and State, as seen in the Anglican Catholic Church, with horror. "And Jesus answering said unto them, Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and to God the things that are God's. And they marvelled at him."
She became an electoral liability towards the end. The poll tax was appalling.
John Major was also an unknown. He was propelled through the senior offices of state and hadn't been around long enough for Thatcher to dislike him.
On topic and regarding the absence of letter writing assassins, I begin to wonder if the weight of the Party in safe seats have decided they’d rather lose the next election and let Labour deal with the covid bills. Which is holding back the letter writers because they don’t want to risk Boris winning the VONC. The Raabs of this world would rather spend the next two years in a state of over promotion and then be retired by the electorate, than spend the next two years on the backbenches before likely meeting the same fate anyway.
Offtopic: Have we covered this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60132765
(headline 'Unvaccinated man denied heart transplant by Boston hospital', although the article hints there may be other reasons too)
I've been opposed to healthcare punishment of unvaccinated (partly because I don't think it would work anyway and partly because it's a slippery slope to denying healthcare for other risky behaviours) but I'm fine with this - limited supply then it makes sense to give them to those with the greatest chance of greatest benefit. With Covid currently rife the chances of infection will be quite high and an unvaccinated person recovering from a heart op looks quite high risk - a vaccinated person would surely have a greater chance of benefit. Not sure about 'taking him off the list' (I'd certainly give him a transplant if there were enough hearts to go round) but he'd be lower priority than those with better chance of gaining more from it.
Ta.
It wasn’t the policies that put English voters off, it was her rapidly declining mental health.
Of course what remains to be seen is if party gate has caused a wider “eye opening” to the perceived failings of Tory governance in general.
Things like levelling up appear to be generally popular policies though (though they’ve gone about it a wholly cackhanded way under Johnson) so if someone could be seen to get a grip on that agenda, it might lead to a renaissance. Whether any of them have the inclination to do so is another matter.
I enjoyed Religious Studies at school. Easily the most interesting and useful subject I took.
Pretty unacceptable comment.
Not to decry your points, however!
I recall when we had one set of exams and the results came out some of the other kids in my class were upset that the top two grades had gone to the classes only atheist and only Jew.
You don't need to be religious to understand religion, or be interested in it. Indeed for a critical understanding, it can help not to go in with your own prejudices.
Jane Dodds, Mark Drakeford and Adam Price are in tune with their country.
Ed Davey, Carla Denyer, Adam Ramsay and Keir Starmer are in tune with their country.
The two cuckoos in the nest? Andrew Davies and The Oaf himself.
YouGov - “Do you think Boris Johnson should resign from his role as Prime Minister, or should he remain in his role?”
Should resign:
Scotland 83%
London 75%
North 73%
Rest of South 69%
Midlands & Wales 65%
GB 71%
(excl dk; 25 January 2022; sample size 3,559)
Edit: And you never know, maybe someone will come to the faith if they learn about it, so theists surely should encourage it too.
I also enjoyed RE at school, as an agnostic.
Johnson is weak and cornered. The future is bleak. One more throw of the dice could be his only option.
Thatcherism was a kind of permanent revolution, but by that point had run out of vaguely sensible stuff to pursue - had she stayed there would have been other equally objectionable policies following on.
Fast forward a decade later and the Tories were in the lead in the polls having just won an 80 seat majority and a fourth election in a decade.
There's no such thing as a good election to lose. There is such a thing as elections parties deserve to lose, but that speaks volumes about the party - not the election or its situation.
If someone promised me a birthday party and all I got was a slice of cake presented at work then I would feel very short-changed. On the other hand, copious amounts of wine in what's become essentially a "lock-in" after work . . . now that's a party.
In this case, she would be warning him that if he doesn't resign, he'll lose a Commons VONC.
https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1486284386412683266?s=20
Still chuckling at Rev HY's suggestion that Jesus Christ was a social conservative:
Overturned money lender tables in the temple
Told the elders of his religion they were completely wrong
Told the established client state of Rome that their everything was wrong
Founded a revolutionary movement which overthrew the pagan Roman state and created one with his teachings at its heart
A social conservative would have said the money lenders were fine and fellow Jews should listen to their Rabbis and not challenge the paganistic Roman power that dominated the known world.
“The time Sue Gray fired me
Boris Johnson, be warned: Britain’s most famous civil servant is never afraid to do things her way.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/sue-gray-boris-johnson-coronavirus-office-party-downing-street/
Case in point: 1992. We have no idea who the Tory party would have elected leader. We have no idea how much Labour would have been blamed (or not) for black Wednesday. We don’t know if the government would have had a majority. We don’t know if the poll tax would have continued to be a millstone upon Major’s exit (if indeed he exited and didn’t stay as leader). The whole thing is just a web of “what ifs” that make it impossible to plot.
It was a reverse takeover, the Romans took over the movement instead of the movement taking over the Romans.
7m
The crucial moment will be Macron's phone call with Putin on Friday morning. Nobody can be sure what the French president will tell Putin about the European position -- as nobody else will be present.
Which means Europe will surrender sometime on Friday Afternoon
We don't call the Cheese-eating French Surrender monkeys without reason - although there may be extra caviar in Paris later this year.
I wonder about his strange attachment to Johnson. Is this simply because nobody else would be daft enough to have him in Cabinet, or does it have some origin in their time at Eton? Perhaps some kind of fagging or digestive related activity? Maybe one of the PB public school boys could offer some insight, if they're not too busy slagging off Comprehensive schools.
That said, in broader terms, I think political fundamentalists in recent years have been rather less tolerant than the average Christian. Such as this man, who is not vaccinated and is being denied a heart transplant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60132765
Yes the Tories might have not gotten into such a mess and might have sorted themselves out sooner had they lost in 1992, but the primary issue from early 1990s until David Cameron took over was that the Conservative Party simply wasn't fit for office.
Doesn’t mean we’ll see it today, of course, nor exactly what we’ll see when we do.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1486275470807257090
In fact I wonder if that's the point and JRM knows the numbers are there to trigger a VONC but that there are not enough votes yet for it to be won.
It is clear that quite a few of these events have been discounted as of no interest, as the police are not looking into all of them
I believe Boris has been foolish but I am not sure there is a smoking gun, though the court of public opinion is a different matter
In the absence of the smoking gun I expect Boris to be in post for the May elections following which the conservative mps have a decision to make
One can't help but think that the Conservative Party would at this moment be wise to reflect on 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐽𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑏𝑦𝑛.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1486124020592435214?s=20
Responses:
Oddly, this thread has angered more supporters of Jeremy Corbyn than Conservatives!
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1486269399795486725?s=20
Hearts are a scarce resource sadly. Would you give a liver to an alcoholic.
Nobody is denying him the right to get vaccinated. He's made his own choice, knowing the consequences.
Like it not Christianity was a revolutionary movement. Started in a relative backwater in the Roman empire it relatively quickly not only transformed its own local state, it overthrew the social framework the Roman empire was built on. Then Holy Mother Church became the first global superpower controlling the rulers of almost every country. We have seen a pair of 1,000 year christian empires and its still the dominant influence on global society.
Social conservative? Please. Even if we wanted to talk about today's politics - and faith has nothing to do with party politics - Christianity is a far better fit with Starmer and his Party than Mr String of affairs and discarded bastards and his party.
Apropos of nothing I've just checked and the Thai age of consent is 15.
On the thread, the Tory mp defence of everyone breached rules is just silly. People forgive the little things, sure, but it isnt hypocritical to expect those in power over us to be held to higher standards.
Comes down to Wales and Scotland perhaps, even if they are full of light weights.
https://twitter.com/ElizabethBangs/status/1485169558470205442?s=20