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Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation before the end of January? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 529

    Sounds like Johnson is preparing to sack everyone in Downing Street but himself.

    Will Carrie survive, do you think?"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    edited January 16

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Cookie said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    I'm a bit reluctant to go back into the argument on its merits, since none of us will affect the outcome and we've debated it to death. Mostly I was just reporting my impression of what most people in my area think. But since you ask, I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high, and that's helping to flatten the curve. Masks in shops? Probably, a bit. Is it a big deal?

    As for wfh being a huge barrier to trade, that depends on the business. There isn't an instruction to wfh regardless, merely to wfh if it's reasonably practical. I spend my days writing submissions to the Government, studying current research, giving remote interviews and leading work by colleagues to plan future campaigns. I could do all that just as well from anywhere, so I'm happy to comply with the instruction to do it from home. If I was running a shop, it would clearly be impractical and I wouldn't do it. It seems a reasonable rule for now though when the infection level comes down it should be replaced by merely a recommendation.

    But I'll leave it there.
    Masks in shops is a big deal. I can't be the only one keeping shopping to subsistence purchases only until the horrible things are no longer required. That surely has an economic impact.
    You aren’t the only one. Millions of people consider shopping a leisure activity. I’m not one of them, and nor, I suspect, is Nick. But one of the problems with covid rules from the beginning is that people enthusiastically support restrictions than don’t affect them.
  • Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    The good Doctor just did.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    darkage said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dan Hannan is in the same small minority as myself:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/15/boris-has-kept-economy-open-recovery-track-matters-drinks/

    ” Our economy is surging commensurately: new figures show we regained our pre-pandemic GDP in November, before the eurozone. The phasing out of furlough payments has not stopped us having, to all intents and purposes, full employment.

    “We did not stumble into this happy situation by luck. We got here because ministers made hard decisions in the teeth of resistance from opposition politicians, public health doomsters and panicky journalists.

    “ We led the world with our vaccine roll-out – not once, but twice. That in turn was possible because we had left the EU and stayed out of its common procurement scheme.

    “At the same time, the PM defied the Eeyores to lift restrictions. When he ended the lockdown in July, epidemiologists called it a dangerous and unethical experiment and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) predicted that hospital admissions would rise to between 2,000 and 7,000 a day…

    “That, in my book, matters vastly more than whether he wandered into his garden while officials were drinking alcohol.”

    If Boris Johnson had repeatedly "defied the Eeyores" because his scientific understanding of the pandemic was superior to that of the expert advisers, there might be some point to that.

    But if it just reflected a reckless willingness to hope blindly for the best, ignore the best advice available and risk other people's lives for his own political advantage? After all, he tried to do much the same thing in March and December 2020 but was forced to reverse the policy by looming catastrophe. Does the fact that he (and we) got lucky this time make him a second Solomon?
    He took risk based decisions….
    the new term for not doing something under threat from your backbenchers that you would be risking your job?
    The reason that Johnson didn't back restrictions was because he knew they were not tenable in light of the partying that had already emerged.

    There were chaotic changes to travel rules, and while no formal ban on hospitality, encouragement for people to cancel and stay away. It wasn't just @Cyclefree Jr that had multiple cancellations. In practice was there much real difference in how busy things were on the other side of borders? And as nothing official, no compensation for those businesses.

    I also note an earlier comment from @Cookie decrying Plan B as unnecessary and the situations in Scotland and Wales, disastrous. Surely that is a false premise if a) the whole point of Plan B was to prevent the NHS from falling under a bus. As it stands the NHS appears to be teetering precariously on the kerbside. Would it have fallen over without Plan B? and b) Omicron was an unknown, so better to be safe than sorry. As it turned out Johnson's "wait and see" gamble worked for him, but the scientific evidence, now ridiculed on here was it could have gone the other way.

    As you suggest, the key was planning, certainty and authority from the politicians, and none were present because of circumstances they themselves had inadvertently engineered through their parties.
    The "better safe than sorry" line would be much more convincing if the NHS didn't tetter on the brink at this time every year, if Plan Bs or lockdowns were only about being safe, rather than having lots of undesirable effects which outweigh any good they do, and if the scientific evidence (or rather pseudo-scientific modelling) hadn't been so consistently wrong for the last year.

    The Government was right, I just wish they'd had the same nerve in March 2020. The evidence as to whether the decisive voice this time was Boris, the Cabinet or pressure from backbench Conservative MPs is confusing. Success has many fathers ...
    You're suggesting there should have been no lockdown in March 2020? Bizarrio!
  • Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    He appears to be talking up the merits of Sunak. Perhaps even he realised the gig is up.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    Morning all you slugabeds, and thanks for the header.

    Serious question for medics.

    Do we still require Cobid tests before going to a hospital appointment?

    I have one on Tuesday, and I have not yet received a request to have one done, which has been recent practice. I'll check tomorrow, of course.

    However, is there a general rule now? This is in England.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,453
    edited January 16

    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's hope all of the Covid restrictions are lifted on 26th January, if not sooner. Is that the government plan? That everything goes on that date, or is just some of the restrictions?

    Who cares. No one is listening to these liars anymore.
    Nobody respects the Government, but that doesn't mean that a decision to dump the rules isn't of value. In my case, I'll be delighted to get rid of nuisance masks in shop, on trains, and walking through the corridors at the gym (yes, mine's gold-plated the regulations and brought the bloody things back, even though you only have to put them on for about 0.5% of the time you are in the building, which is profoundly pointless.) Secondly, my paranoid employer is basically still stuck in a January 2021 time warp full of masks and social distancing and obsessional surface cleaning everywhere: if all the rules go in the rest of the country then there's at least some hope that they might also get rid of them at some point before the heat death of the universe.

    I'm very much in the camp that's happy to see targeted measures like the PCR tests and emergency anti-virals for the most vulnerable, but the petty, nit-picking regulation of everybody's day-to-day life needs to go. Anything that helps to hurry that along can only be a positive development.
    If it's any consolation, feathered friend, I went to two small (6-10 people) meetings of OAP's last week. In one nearly everyone was masked; in the other only one person was. In the 'mostly masked' one there were, to be fair, two people who could reasonably be regarded as 'vulnerable' on general health grounds, as well as age.
    I think it's wearing off, although I do do an LFT every three or four days.
    As I posted yesterday, I think most people are being pragmatic - "wfh if you can" and "wear a mask in a shop or on a train" are widely seen as no big deal, and most people (outside London at least) are mostly willing to carry on with those for the forseeable. They get that Omicron is mostly no worse than a bad bout of flu, but who wants to get flu merely so they can shop without a mask? My office (100 people) remains closed except for special requirements, and the (mostly young) staff are solidly opposed to early reopening since we can do our particular work from home without problems.

    In social life, though, restrictions are disappearing fast. Many people are still cautious about larger parties, but meeting a few vaccinated/boosted people for a meal without masks, they think it's worth the residual risk.

    That's because they actually care about meeting people, and they don't care (much) about what they wear to shop, nor are they in a hurry to resume commuting. With infections still around 100K/day, it's not obviously stupid, and I suspect that Plan B limits still have majority support.

    Hmm. Another airy dismissal of what are still significant impositions on people’s lives.

    The current rules dictate that you have to wear a mask in the theatre: a social and leisure activity and indeed a romantic one. Who on Earth wants to wear a mask on a date?

    Re: the WFH guidance. People can and should WFH when convenient, covid or none. Yet the existence of the guidance means many staff are banned from meeting clients/colleagues/suppliers in person.

    That is an egregious imposition, and a barrier to contact building and developing new business.

    Does anyone sensible believe Plan B should continue? On what justification?
    I was pretty equivocal about plan B at the time. I could see the awkward situation HMG were in - that Omicron was so much more infectious that, if it became apparent it was still deadly enough to cause a problem with the hospitals, by the time it did so it would be too late to avert the system from being overwhelmed. And yet I thought there was good reason to think that the vaccines would still provide sufficient protection from serious illness that we could trust to them to see us through.

    I think I was mostly unhappy about the imposition of plan B for one reason - that it implied that vaccination was not sufficient for us to end the emergency, and that there would be no end to Covid regulations.

    However, I'm pretty relaxed about the exact timing of when plan B is rolled back. The argument has been won that vaccines were enough. Whether plan B is kiboshed tomorrow, or nine days later isn't going to make much difference. They won't be coming back is the main thing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    This is fun if Scott hasn't already posted it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's hope all of the Covid restrictions are lifted on 26th January, if not sooner. Is that the government plan? That everything goes on that date, or is just some of the restrictions?

    Who cares. No one is listening to these liars anymore.
    Nobody respects the Government, but that doesn't mean that a decision to dump the rules isn't of value. In my case, I'll be delighted to get rid of nuisance masks in shop, on trains, and walking through the corridors at the gym (yes, mine's gold-plated the regulations and brought the bloody things back, even though you only have to put them on for about 0.5% of the time you are in the building, which is profoundly pointless.) Secondly, my paranoid employer is basically still stuck in a January 2021 time warp full of masks and social distancing and obsessional surface cleaning everywhere: if all the rules go in the rest of the country then there's at least some hope that they might also get rid of them at some point before the heat death of the universe.

    I'm very much in the camp that's happy to see targeted measures like the PCR tests and emergency anti-virals for the most vulnerable, but the petty, nit-picking regulation of everybody's day-to-day life needs to go. Anything that helps to hurry that along can only be a positive development.
    If it's any consolation, feathered friend, I went to two small (6-10 people) meetings of OAP's last week. In one nearly everyone was masked; in the other only one person was. In the 'mostly masked' one there were, to be fair, two people who could reasonably be regarded as 'vulnerable' on general health grounds, as well as age.
    I think it's wearing off, although I do do an LFT every three or four days.
    As I posted yesterday, I think most people are being pragmatic - "wfh if you can" and "wear a mask in a shop or on a train" are widely seen as no big deal, and most people (outside London at least) are mostly willing to carry on with those for the forseeable. They get that Omicron is mostly no worse than a bad bout of flu, but who wants to get flu merely so they can shop without a mask? My office (100 people) remains closed except for special requirements, and the (mostly young) staff are solidly opposed to early reopening since we can do our particular work from home without problems.

    In social life, though, restrictions are disappearing fast. Many people are still cautious about larger parties, but meeting a few vaccinated/boosted people for a meal without masks, they think it's worth the residual risk.

    That's because they actually care about meeting people, and they don't care (much) about what they wear to shop, nor are they in a hurry to resume commuting. With infections still around 100K/day, it's not obviously stupid, and I suspect that Plan B limits still have majority support.

    Hmm. Another airy dismissal of what are still significant impositions on people’s lives.

    The current rules dictate that you have to wear a mask in the theatre: a social and leisure activity and indeed a romantic one. Who on Earth wants to wear a mask on a date?

    Re: the WFH guidance. People can and should WFH when convenient, covid or none. Yet the existence of the guidance means many staff are banned from meeting clients/colleagues/suppliers in person.

    That is an egregious imposition, and a barrier to contact building and developing new business.

    Does anyone sensible believe Plan B should continue? On what justification?
    I was pretty equivocal about plan B at the time. I could see the awkward situation HMG were in - that Omicron was so much more infectious that, if it became apparent it was still deadly enough to cause a problem with the hospitals, by the time it did so it would be too late to avert the system from being overwhelmed. And yet I thought there was good reason to think that the vaccines would still provide sufficient protection from serious illness that we could trust to them to see us through.

    I think I was mostly unhappy about the imposition of plan B for one reason - that it implied that vaccination was not sufficient for us to end the emergency, and that there would be no end to Covid regulations.

    However, I'm pretty relaxed about the exact timing of when plan B is rolled back. The argument has been won that vaccines were enough. Whether plan B is kiboshed tomorrow, or nine days later isn't going to make much difference. They won't be coming back is the main thing.
    Fair enough, a nice reply.

    Do any PBer support the maintenance of Plan B beyond 26 Jan?

    If so, why?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,837
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Once the dust settles it will be interesting to see if there have been materially different outcomes between the different restriction regimes imposed across the UK.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Okay, fine. So what would you do now? Continue with restrictions indefinitely “just in case”?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    MattW said:

    Morning all you slugabeds, and thanks for the header.

    Serious question for medics.

    Do we still require Cobid tests before going to a hospital appointment?

    I have one on Tuesday, and I have not yet received a request to have one done, which has been recent practice. I'll check tomorrow, of course.

    However, is there a general rule now? This is in England.

    I don't think there is a requirement for appointments, just for admissions and anything involving an anaesthetic. Certain specialities with particularly vulnerable patients may differ.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,929
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Really? Not because Omicron has infected so many and it is running out of replication opportunities in the population?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,453

    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    darkage said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    moonshine said:

    What to make of the Telegraph Carrie story, replete with photo of scissors legs.

    They’ll know it’s not dynamite with the reading public. But one gets the impression that the reading public are not the target. There is one reader this story is targeted at and his name is Boris Johnson.

    It’s gloves off stuff. “Unless you exit stage left, we are coming after your personal life and this is a mere amuse bouche to the 12 course tasting menu we have lined up”.

    Let us not forget that this is a man who for all his faults, has always done his best to retain a certain mystery about his family life. To the extent that until very recently his wikipedia entry had to caveat his many children he has.

    Quite something for the Boris Bible to take this approach. I am not tempted by TSE’s bet. Far too much uncertainty.

    ‘this is a man who for all his faults, has always done his best to retain a certain mystery about his family life’

    Well, that’s one way of putting it. I’d put that in his faults ledger myself.
    Good morning. Early morning sky appears to be thick cloud.
    However, just perhaps on the political horizon a new dawn IS breaking.

    On thread topic I've always thought it noteworthy that, to the best of my knowledge, none of the Johnson children have sought to capitalise on their ancestry.
    They may, of course, be ashamed of it, but I am surprised that, again to my knowledge, no gentleman (or lady) of the press has asked them ..... been prepared to pay them ..... for "My Dad, Boris Johnson'.
    Or similar.
    Even with many children and ex-wives, and his terrible management of money, each of them will still be expecting him to die as a rich man.

    Actually, it’s one of the few things the British press generally do right, is to leave the children of politicians alone, unless they have done something particularly newsworthy.

    Carrie is totally fair game though, she’s a political animal in her own right, and is unofficially the PM’s top advisor.
    I'm unconvinced that Carrie is fair game, at least to the extent she seems to be vilified.
    Indeed. People consult their spouses on things, that's a given, but is there really evidence she is the powerful puppet master who has her own cabal running the show as seems to get alleged? Most of the testimony as to her influence seems to come back to Cummings, who is somewhat unreliable when he's clearly got a personal vendetta against his old boss.

    She's fair game for criticism if Boris is taking her advice on things. But the extent of that criticism seems disproportionate as to her probable influence.
    Kabul air lift seems pretty clear, and an act of great evil.
    It seems destined to perhaps be a historical mystery as to the extent of her true influence. But the circumstantial evidence cannot be ignored. The Kabul Air lift, and the fact that Johnson is unwilling to get any other advisors in - no one seems to want to go near the place. People will just select the narrative that reinforces their political views - if you are on the left/woke, it is almost certainly Boris's fault and criticism of Carrie is evidence of sexism; if you are sympathetic to the tories, then the problem is likely to be with Carrie and not Boris. As I said, it just seems to me like they are acting out a tragedy, going down together.
    Most of the people on here complaining about sexism against Carrie are Tories.
    It is a bizarre claim. tim of questionably blessed memory was clearly a misogynist but you could only tell that by running the numbers. Denouncing hostility to one person who happens to be a woman as misogyny is I think old fashioned gammonry masquerading as right on ness. A feeling that one doesn't say that sort of thing about the memsahibs, old boy
    I think your counter is a bit bizarre. It is not that criticising or being hostile to Carrie is itself automatically mysogynist - I don't think anyone would suggest people cannot criticise a woman. It's that I find the level of authority and influence ascribed to her to be improbable, and therefore the level of criticism (which often includes pejorative nicknames based on her appearance) over the top, and it does seem reminiscient of various 'evil advisor' tropes.
    Absolutely agreed.

    Several PBers have shamelessly referenced Lady Macbeth, a sexist trope so cliched I’m amazed that they can show their face.
    The issue is entirely with Johnson - of course politicians talk to their spouses and weigh up advice appropriately - no criticism of Carrie, whose advice may be good bad or indifferent, the issue is with Johnson and the weight he gives such advice.
    There's no counterweight. Doesn't seem to be any adviser or Cabinet colleague with the requisite standing to be listened to, and Johnson has no [mental] ballast of his own.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,145
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    I don't think, even for many Brexiters, Brexit can be considered achieved.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    I had three pissups cancelled at very short notice in December. Two because of actual covid, the third turned out not to be Covid.

    "Ah ha!" I hear some people say, "so you cancelled and you didn't need to because of plan B!"

    No. Whilst my sister-in-law didn't have Covid, she had all the symptoms of Covid. So was in bed feeling like absolute crap. As the party was at their house we were hardly going to go ahead Covid or not Covid.

    And its the same with so many other cancellations. People who are ill don't go out on the razz because they are ill. Its not fun trying to party when ill, so you cancel whether its Covid or not Covid. And so many people were ill, where it wasn't "just a cold".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    ...just not for your party, as it turned out....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    edited January 16

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Okay, fine. So what would you do now? Continue with restrictions indefinitely “just in case”?
    No, and I have never supported restrictions "indefinitely or just in case"

    What I do support is appropriate measures to "Live With Covid" such as work on improved ventilation in schools, cross infection in health and social care, accelerated access to anti-virals for vulnerable groups, active surveillance of emerging variants, improved treatment of long covid, recovery of non covid services etc. All of this requires thought, and Living With Covid will not mean a return to 2019 Living Without Covid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    MattW said:

    Morning all you slugabeds, and thanks for the header.

    Serious question for medics.

    Do we still require Cobid tests before going to a hospital appointment?

    I have one on Tuesday, and I have not yet received a request to have one done, which has been recent practice. I'll check tomorrow, of course.

    However, is there a general rule now? This is in England.

    No
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    I don't think, even for many Brexiters, Brexit can be considered achieved.
    Well we're out of the EU now; a pretty good start.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    edited January 16
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour have a lead of 43% - 33% in "All seats Labour has lost since 2005" in this Opinium poll.

    Given that would include 40 seats in Scotland where they are now pretty much nowhere, that must mean a huge lead in England.
    Spot on.

    The details in these polls are much, much worse for the Conservatives than the headline figures.
    I’ve seen it suggested - including here - that it is middle class voters in the south who are the most upset with the PM’s goings on.

    The polling detail suggests the opposite. Perhaps those who have had the tougher lockdown experience are more angry than the middle class office workers sipping their Chardonnay from their home offices?
    Agreed. Con VI in the SE (outwith London) has been tremendous. They are building up support where they really don’t need it. The North is totally gone. The key is the Midlands: Labour have a clear lead for now, but swingback still feasible.
    Labour seem to be so far ahead in the North of England that a large number of Redwall Mps look doomed. There'd need to be an enormous swing back for the Tories to have a hope of holding Blyth Valley or Leigh, for instance.
    In the absence of proper, full-sample regional and/or redwall polling (there have been very few) then our only option is to keep a very close eye on the North and the Midlands sun-samples. In this respect YouGov is by far the market leader, as they are the only polling firm to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples.
    What you can pick up on looking at the latest poll is complete apathy

    For the North 15% won't vote, 22% don't know Tories on 17%, labour 30%

    For the midlands 12% won't vote, 17% don't know Tories on 23% Labour 28%

    From https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/48dfh8v55q/TheTimes_VI_220113_W.pdf

    What you can see is that Tories votes are going down and won't vote is going up, but there is a distinct move to Labour from the Lib Dems / Greens in winnable Labour seats.
    Yes, we appear to be seeing the same thing in Scotland (no full polls so far this year, but we ought to get at least one in January). The SCon vote seems to be holding up pretty well, but perhaps underlying churn, with Refuk voters moving “home” and some minor Tory abstentionism and tactical unwind to SLDs.

    Early days, but seems to be indications that the biggest anti-Con party is benefitting from tactical voting, with the SLab and Grn numbers drifting down while SNP drift up slightly.

    But we’ll soon get a much clearer picture.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    edited January 16
    So, I have a Facebook Friend request from one "Buckinghame Abdulvagap".

    Which sounds like one of those pronounceable but meaningless passwords that used to be generated on Dec VAX minicomputers.

    Genuine ? :wink:

    And I see another very old one from Chalmersi Vizirov, who sounds like someone aspiring to be an office manager to a politician.
  • Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dan Hannan is in the same small minority as myself:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/15/boris-has-kept-economy-open-recovery-track-matters-drinks/

    ” Our economy is surging commensurately: new figures show we regained our pre-pandemic GDP in November, before the eurozone. The phasing out of furlough payments has not stopped us having, to all intents and purposes, full employment.

    “We did not stumble into this happy situation by luck. We got here because ministers made hard decisions in the teeth of resistance from opposition politicians, public health doomsters and panicky journalists.

    “ We led the world with our vaccine roll-out – not once, but twice. That in turn was possible because we had left the EU and stayed out of its common procurement scheme.

    “At the same time, the PM defied the Eeyores to lift restrictions. When he ended the lockdown in July, epidemiologists called it a dangerous and unethical experiment and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) predicted that hospital admissions would rise to between 2,000 and 7,000 a day…

    “That, in my book, matters vastly more than whether he wandered into his garden while officials were drinking alcohol.”

    If Boris Johnson had repeatedly "defied the Eeyores" because his scientific understanding of the pandemic was superior to that of the expert advisers, there might be some point to that.

    But if it just reflected a reckless willingness to hope blindly for the best, ignore the best advice available and risk other people's lives for his own political advantage? After all, he tried to do much the same thing in March and December 2020 but was forced to reverse the policy by looming catastrophe. Does the fact that he (and we) got lucky this time make him a second Solomon?
    Not recklessness it is the absolutely right moral philosophy and it was right in March and December 2020 too.

    If you want to stop people's fundamental civil liberties the case for that absolutely has to be proven beyond all reasonable doubt. It is not something you do "just in case".

    If you wish to take personal precautions"just in case" that's your freedom to decide. But to take away others right to choose is a very, very last resort not a precautionary principle.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 1,462
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Telegraph reporting that Gove is on ‘manoeuvres’.

    And does the pope shit in the woods?
    I do hope that that amended expression becomes so ingrained that in 1000 years people will not know its origins and be utterly confused why it exists.
    Especially if the use of the term “shit” to describe the bodily function is unknown and they have to try and interpret what the pope is doing in the woods
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    JBriskin3 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    I don't think, even for many Brexiters, Brexit can be considered achieved.
    Well we're out of the EU now; a pretty good start.
    Can we take that in parts? ;)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 16

    Confirmed cases in the UK are on their way down, after peaking at 307% of the early-2021 wave.

    But for now, confirmed deaths are still 4 times lower than in early 2021.

    [From my daily-updated post on key COVID-19 metrics compared to previous waves: ourworldindata.org/covid-metrics-…]


    https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1482652558804107264?s=21

    [deleted - got confused by the wording]
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Telegraph reporting that Gove is on ‘manoeuvres’.

    And does the pope shit in the woods?
    I do hope that that amended expression becomes so ingrained that in 1000 years people will not know its origins and be utterly confused why it exists.
    Especially if the use of the term “shit” to describe the bodily function is unknown and they have to try and interpret what the pope is doing in the woods
    Indeed, with the woods famously full of bears aka Rangers fans.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,055
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
    Wasn't the "trade deal with the EU" just an abject surrender by Johnson to everything the EU were asking for? Just so that he could claim that we had a trade deal with them.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    Of that list, one stands out: Carlotta. Pretty certain she is NOT a fan and had opposed his premiership from the start. A Tory, but not a Borisite!

    @CarlottaVance
    I was running out of names. Carlotta is a loyalist unlike the others who are devoted fans
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,434
    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Roger said:

    This is fun if Scott hasn't already posted it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok

    The windmills of Boris’s mind?

    It would not surprise me if the man was on the brink of madness, quite literally. Struggled his whole life to emulate his hero Churchill, but about to go down in history as a mendacious charlatan and a worse prime minister than Eden, Brown, May and Cameron.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's hope all of the Covid restrictions are lifted on 26th January, if not sooner. Is that the government plan? That everything goes on that date, or is just some of the restrictions?

    Who cares. No one is listening to these liars anymore.
    Nobody respects the Government, but that doesn't mean that a decision to dump the rules isn't of value. In my case, I'll be delighted to get rid of nuisance masks in shop, on trains, and walking through the corridors at the gym (yes, mine's gold-plated the regulations and brought the bloody things back, even though you only have to put them on for about 0.5% of the time you are in the building, which is profoundly pointless.) Secondly, my paranoid employer is basically still stuck in a January 2021 time warp full of masks and social distancing and obsessional surface cleaning everywhere: if all the rules go in the rest of the country then there's at least some hope that they might also get rid of them at some point before the heat death of the universe.

    I'm very much in the camp that's happy to see targeted measures like the PCR tests and emergency anti-virals for the most vulnerable, but the petty, nit-picking regulation of everybody's day-to-day life needs to go. Anything that helps to hurry that along can only be a positive development.
    If it's any consolation, feathered friend, I went to two small (6-10 people) meetings of OAP's last week. In one nearly everyone was masked; in the other only one person was. In the 'mostly masked' one there were, to be fair, two people who could reasonably be regarded as 'vulnerable' on general health grounds, as well as age.
    I think it's wearing off, although I do do an LFT every three or four days.
    As I posted yesterday, I think most people are being pragmatic - "wfh if you can" and "wear a mask in a shop or on a train" are widely seen as no big deal, and most people (outside London at least) are mostly willing to carry on with those for the forseeable. They get that Omicron is mostly no worse than a bad bout of flu, but who wants to get flu merely so they can shop without a mask? My office (100 people) remains closed except for special requirements, and the (mostly young) staff are solidly opposed to early reopening since we can do our particular work from home without problems.

    In social life, though, restrictions are disappearing fast. Many people are still cautious about larger parties, but meeting a few vaccinated/boosted people for a meal without masks, they think it's worth the residual risk.

    That's because they actually care about meeting people, and they don't care (much) about what they wear to shop, nor are they in a hurry to resume commuting. With infections still around 100K/day, it's not obviously stupid, and I suspect that Plan B limits still have majority support.

    That's more or less the view of the u3a Groups to which I belong, with the caveat that, as you posted, we expect people to be vaccinated. One member of one u3a refuses to be vaccinated and there are, I'm told, problems about running meetings which that member might attend; others are refusing to associate with the anti-vaxer.
    An elderly relative found that her discussion group for old people (same sort of thing as U3A, might actually be U3A) was being disrupted by an antivaxxer - people didn't want to hear lots of antivax stuff (and he went on and on about it). Or catch anything off him. (Some are vulnerable.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's hope all of the Covid restrictions are lifted on 26th January, if not sooner. Is that the government plan? That everything goes on that date, or is just some of the restrictions?

    Who cares. No one is listening to these liars anymore.
    Nobody respects the Government, but that doesn't mean that a decision to dump the rules isn't of value. In my case, I'll be delighted to get rid of nuisance masks in shop, on trains, and walking through the corridors at the gym (yes, mine's gold-plated the regulations and brought the bloody things back, even though you only have to put them on for about 0.5% of the time you are in the building, which is profoundly pointless.) Secondly, my paranoid employer is basically still stuck in a January 2021 time warp full of masks and social distancing and obsessional surface cleaning everywhere: if all the rules go in the rest of the country then there's at least some hope that they might also get rid of them at some point before the heat death of the universe.

    I'm very much in the camp that's happy to see targeted measures like the PCR tests and emergency anti-virals for the most vulnerable, but the petty, nit-picking regulation of everybody's day-to-day life needs to go. Anything that helps to hurry that along can only be a positive development.
    If it's any consolation, feathered friend, I went to two small (6-10 people) meetings of OAP's last week. In one nearly everyone was masked; in the other only one person was. In the 'mostly masked' one there were, to be fair, two people who could reasonably be regarded as 'vulnerable' on general health grounds, as well as age.
    I think it's wearing off, although I do do an LFT every three or four days.
    As I posted yesterday, I think most people are being pragmatic - "wfh if you can" and "wear a mask in a shop or on a train" are widely seen as no big deal, and most people (outside London at least) are mostly willing to carry on with those for the forseeable. They get that Omicron is mostly no worse than a bad bout of flu, but who wants to get flu merely so they can shop without a mask? My office (100 people) remains closed except for special requirements, and the (mostly young) staff are solidly opposed to early reopening since we can do our particular work from home without problems.

    In social life, though, restrictions are disappearing fast. Many people are still cautious about larger parties, but meeting a few vaccinated/boosted people for a meal without masks, they think it's worth the residual risk.

    That's because they actually care about meeting people, and they don't care (much) about what they wear to shop, nor are they in a hurry to resume commuting. With infections still around 100K/day, it's not obviously stupid, and I suspect that Plan B limits still have majority support.

    That's more or less the view of the u3a Groups to which I belong, with the caveat that, as you posted, we expect people to be vaccinated. One member of one u3a refuses to be vaccinated and there are, I'm told, problems about running meetings which that member might attend; others are refusing to associate with the anti-vaxer.
    Out of interest, what is the age profile of your U3A groups?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869

    Boris is going nowhere.

    As I said.

    But if he does this week, what about your credibility? Surely there is so much uncertainty this weekend, none of us can be so sure what happens next couple of days?

    The only thing we can be sure about is wether or not the letters are in tomorrow, the Assailant will still release something to keep up momentum Tuesday evening.

    What does nowhere mean anyway, you reckon he is in for 10 years? What is your take on exit date?
    I’m making a prediction that he’ll not go in the near term. I could be wrong. I often am.

    But it doesn’t appear that the Tory Party have the cojones to get rid of him.
    Thanks.

    I had to look up cojones, my initial thought was something in find in a finger buffet with a sweet chilli dip.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 28,216

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
    Wasn't the "trade deal with the EU" just an abject surrender by Johnson to everything the EU were asking for? Just so that he could claim that we had a trade deal with them.....
    The EU don't seem to think so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
    Wasn't the "trade deal with the EU" just an abject surrender by Johnson to everything the EU were asking for? Just so that he could claim that we had a trade deal with them.....
    It replaced free movement with a points system, still enabled us to do our own global trade deals etc.

    The only issue was NI but Art 16 may yet be triggered by the government if that is not resolved
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 16

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    I had three pissups cancelled at very short notice in December. Two because of actual covid, the third turned out not to be Covid.

    "Ah ha!" I hear some people say, "so you cancelled and you didn't need to because of plan B!"

    No. Whilst my sister-in-law didn't have Covid, she had all the symptoms of Covid. So was in bed feeling like absolute crap. As the party was at their house we were hardly going to go ahead Covid or not Covid.

    And its the same with so many other cancellations. People who are ill don't go out on the razz because they are ill. Its not fun trying to party when ill, so you cancel whether its Covid or not Covid. And so many people were ill, where it wasn't "just a cold".
    Quite. And there is also the common decency issue of not wanting to give someone else a bug. For which good manners I got accused of malicious economic sabotage by some PBers. Who on occasion give the impression of wanting to deal with a cholera epidemic by bottling their faeces in a spray gun and going down the Underground with it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
    Wasn't the "trade deal with the EU" just an abject surrender by Johnson to everything the EU were asking for? Just so that he could claim that we had a trade deal with them.....
    Yes.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365
    Just switched on the cricket. Biggest England collapse for a long time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57164874
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709

    Roger said:

    This is fun if Scott hasn't already posted it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gojozdxok

    The windmills of Boris’s mind?

    It would not surprise me if the man was on the brink of madness, quite literally. Struggled his whole life to emulate his hero Churchill, but about to go down in history as a mendacious charlatan and a worse prime minister than Eden, Brown, May and Cameron.
    disgraced, and as the most inadequate PM of all time, as a particularly prescient PB'er predicted two months back
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Boris is going nowhere.

    As I said.

    But if he does this week, what about your credibility? Surely there is so much uncertainty this weekend, none of us can be so sure what happens next couple of days?

    The only thing we can be sure about is wether or not the letters are in tomorrow, the Assailant will still release something to keep up momentum Tuesday evening.

    What does nowhere mean anyway, you reckon he is in for 10 years? What is your take on exit date?
    I’m making a prediction that he’ll not go in the near term. I could be wrong. I often am.

    But it doesn’t appear that the Tory Party have the cojones to get rid of him.
    Thanks.

    I had to look up cojones, my initial thought was something in find in a finger buffet with a sweet chilli dip.
    Could well be tapas in Spain for all I know. They are big on sweetbreads in the Continent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    The good Doctor just did.
    I don’t see that he did. He said my question was stupid. And it is seemingly perfectly valid to make numerical predictions of what will happen without restrictions.

    Funny old world.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,434

    malcolmg said:

    When I started work in the private sector forty years ago there was no booze at work. The pub at 6pm was all the booze we had.

    I hate to break it to them but most of the public, and private sectors, banned drinking at work two decades or more ago.

    And before Johnson it was very unusual in Downing St.


    https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1482640970105724935?s=20

    Not sure that is right. I think offices started to ban alcohol and reduce boozy nights out more like 2010 than 2000. Around the millennium the big drinkers in my office might have 2-3 pints most lunchtimes, more on Fridays, and Friday evenings was unlimited paid for booze at the pub, which most people took as a means of starting getting pissed cheaply at least once a month.

    It has definitely reduced a lot now, with a quarter of youngsters being teetotal and many of the rest not wanting to make an arse of themselves on social media big factors.
    Different company ethos, evidently. Drinking at lunch time in 1980 was seen as a sign of a problem.
    Disagree , it was de riguer. Not having a drink was seen as having a problem, not quite as bad as 70's but was still very very normal.
    As I wrote, different company ethos, mine was an American multi-national based out of the mid-west (and still very much in business).
    Company was anti-drink as per yours with same ethos, US and very much still in business, but UK workers/management not so much so.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    I had three pissups cancelled at very short notice in December. Two because of actual covid, the third turned out not to be Covid.

    "Ah ha!" I hear some people say, "so you cancelled and you didn't need to because of plan B!"

    No. Whilst my sister-in-law didn't have Covid, she had all the symptoms of Covid. So was in bed feeling like absolute crap. As the party was at their house we were hardly going to go ahead Covid or not Covid.

    And its the same with so many other cancellations. People who are ill don't go out on the razz because they are ill. Its not fun trying to party when ill, so you cancel whether its Covid or not Covid. And so many people were ill, where it wasn't "just a cold".
    Quite. And there is also the common decency issue of not wanting to give someone else a bug. For which good manners I got accused of malicious economic sabotage by some PBers. Who on occasion give the impression of wanting to deal with a cholera epidemic by bottling their faeces in a spray gun and going down the Underground with it.
    The career of a fair number of PB posters is analogous to bottling their faeces in a spray gun and going down the Underground with it. SeanT springs immediately to mind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Okay, fine. So what would you do now? Continue with restrictions indefinitely “just in case”?
    No, and I have never supported restrictions "indefinitely or just in case"

    What I do support is appropriate measures to "Live With Covid" such as work on improved ventilation in schools, cross infection in health and social care, accelerated access to anti-virals for vulnerable groups, active surveillance of emerging variants, improved treatment of long covid, recovery of non covid services etc. All of this requires thought, and Living With Covid will not mean a return to 2019 Living Without Covid.
    Agreed. Indeed no sane person could disagree.

    But the debate is about Plan B. Would you can it now? If not now, when?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Andy_JS said:

    Just switched on the cricket. Biggest England collapse for a long time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57164874

    Waltz on Matilda!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    edited January 16
    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365
    rcs1000 said:

    Ouch.

    Burns goes.

    From 68/0 to 124 all out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,612
    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    Andy_JS said:

    Just switched on the cricket. Biggest England collapse for a long time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57164874

    Still we avoided 5 0
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 15,476
    Cookie said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    I'm a bit reluctant to go back into the argument on its merits, since none of us will affect the outcome and we've debated it to death. Mostly I was just reporting my impression of what most people in my area think. But since you ask, I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high, and that's helping to flatten the curve. Masks in shops? Probably, a bit. Is it a big deal?

    As for wfh being a huge barrier to trade, that depends on the business. There isn't an instruction to wfh regardless, merely to wfh if it's reasonably practical. I spend my days writing submissions to the Government, studying current research, giving remote interviews and leading work by colleagues to plan future campaigns. I could do all that just as well from anywhere, so I'm happy to comply with the instruction to do it from home. If I was running a shop, it would clearly be impractical and I wouldn't do it. It seems a reasonable rule for now though when the infection level comes down it should be replaced by merely a recommendation.

    But I'll leave it there.
    Masks in shops is a big deal. I can't be the only one keeping shopping to subsistence purchases only until the horrible things are no longer required. That surely has an economic impact.
    I'd rather wear a mask if I have to in a supermarket ( even if that means returning to the car because I have left it there) if it means greater restrictions might be avoided later.

    If Johnson hadn't got embroiled in Partygate he could have sold Plan B as the saviour of the NHS, and wasn't he clever to think of it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    edited January 16
    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Mourndering.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 33,010
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just switched on the cricket. Biggest England collapse for a long time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57164874

    Still we avoided 5 0
    And Brexit is done!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,249
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    But all that occurred because of the points I made above. If he got vaccinated like nearly all the other players, none of this would have happened. He got the visa exception through a lie; he lied on his forms.

    The Aussie authorities were more than fair with him. Fairer than they would be with me or you in his situation.

    It is 100% his own fault.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    edited January 16
    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on here.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    These kinds of posts are peak tedium. We’re all here, except for isam who had a run in with the ban hammer.
    I don't think they're 'peak tedium.' Everyone NOW thinks Johnson is a charlatan and a despicable liar. Many of us have been of that opinion for years and couldn't believe that the once proud Tory party would elect him

    'Peak tedium' are the repetitive posts from the likes of me saying 'I TOLD YOU SO'. More interesting are explanations from people like you telling the rest of us why you couldn't see what was obvious and in plain sight.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,434

    Cookie said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    I'm a bit reluctant to go back into the argument on its merits, since none of us will affect the outcome and we've debated it to death. Mostly I was just reporting my impression of what most people in my area think. But since you ask, I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high, and that's helping to flatten the curve. Masks in shops? Probably, a bit. Is it a big deal?

    As for wfh being a huge barrier to trade, that depends on the business. There isn't an instruction to wfh regardless, merely to wfh if it's reasonably practical. I spend my days writing submissions to the Government, studying current research, giving remote interviews and leading work by colleagues to plan future campaigns. I could do all that just as well from anywhere, so I'm happy to comply with the instruction to do it from home. If I was running a shop, it would clearly be impractical and I wouldn't do it. It seems a reasonable rule for now though when the infection level comes down it should be replaced by merely a recommendation.

    But I'll leave it there.
    Masks in shops is a big deal. I can't be the only one keeping shopping to subsistence purchases only until the horrible things are no longer required. That surely has an economic impact.
    You aren’t the only one. Millions of people consider shopping a leisure activity. I’m not one of them, and nor, I suspect, is Nick. But one of the problems with covid rules from the beginning is that people enthusiastically support restrictions than don’t affect them.
    Still waiting on your wonderful analysis that proves Plan B was crap, you seem to prefer bumping your gums rather than showing it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,612
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just switched on the cricket. Biggest England collapse for a long time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/57164874

    Still we avoided 5 0
    That makes your comments on Boris look objective and reasoned.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365
    Eabhal said:

    Mr. Eabhal, the 'tolerance' of not criticising or trying to get people to change when they're dangerously obese (fat-shaming, indeed) has led to more deaths from this.

    And even without COVID-19, being significantly overweight is obviously detrimental to health. We should encourage people to try and get fitter or at least shed stones of fat, for their own sake.

    I wouldn't mind people being obese, smoking etc if we didn't have a public health service. The huge strain it is under, and the massive cost, should be stemmed at source as quickly as possible.

    It's not just a moral hazard problem, though. See the US.
    In a free society there will always be obese people and smokers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    Even my dog wants Boris gone!

    Mind you, that's largely because he's fed up with me being glued to wall-to-wall political commentary.

    I told him that when Boris goes there'll be a lot more politics in the news. He says we'll chase that ball once it's been thrown.
  • Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    But if you prescribe hot broth to a patient with a cold instead of an amputation or a radical course of chemotherapy then that certainly could be the right decision.

    People who are keen on stripping others decision seem to forget the massive costs involved and why it must always be a last resort only ever undertaken when proven necessary beyond all reasonable doubt and not as a precaution.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,453
    Fewest balls faced by an England team in an Ashes series in Australia (of five or more Tests) ever - and fifth lowest including series in England.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on here.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    These kinds of posts are peak tedium. We’re all here, except for isam who had a run in with the ban hammer.
    I don't think they're 'peak tedium.' Everyone NOW thinks Johnson is a charlatan and a despicable liar. Many of us have been of that opinion for years and couldn't believe that the once proud Tory party would elect him

    'Peak tedium' are the repetitive posts from the likes of me saying 'I TOLD YOU SO'. More interesting are explanations from people like you telling the rest of us why you couldn't see what was obvious and in plain sight.
    I’m with you Roger. The entire erstwhile Boris fan club on here owes us an explanation, and an apology.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 16

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if ENglish/Beurla was still Germanic we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 942
    edited January 16
    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    “Pfeffelism”

    The knowledge that something is going to go wrong but for irrational reasons one hopes that past experience will not be a guide to future outcomes.

    Edit to add its route is from the old Norse word “Pfuckup”.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Fewest balls faced by an England team in an Ashes series in Australia (of five or more Tests) ever - and fifth lowest including series in England.

    Decline-ism.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    edited January 16
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    One certainly hasn't turned out well. Jury still out on the other.
    We left the EU in January 2020, with a trade deal with the EU in January 2021 and Starmer has now replaced Corbyn as Labour leader after the 2019 Tory landslide.

    Turned out pretty well from my perspective
    That’s not Brexit! That’s faux Brexit. Everyone’s knows Brexit is only Brexit if you divulge from the European social model!

    That is what is meant by Brexit isn’t it? Anything else will always be dubbed the Great Brexit sell out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,612
    It would have been better if the England team had taken the Djokovic route.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    If I prescribe hot broth to a patient with unstable angina and he survives that doesn't make it the right decision. It just means that I got away with it.
    Okay, fine. Very good. So can you now answer my question? How would the numbers have been materially different under Plan A?
    That is a stupid question because there is no data to answer it from.

    My guess is that the numbers went down far more because of people cancelling or restricting activities than from government action, as the widespread cancellations in hospitality evidence.

    In a rapidly evolving situation decisions have to be made on partial and uncertain data. They may turn out to be unnecessary as things evolve, but it does not mean that the decision was a mistake.

    Really? Not because Omicron has infected so many and it is running out of replication opportunities in the population?
    Reinfection rates with Omicron have been much higher than previous variants, perhaps 15-20% rather the 1% of Delta. I don't think non-vaccine immunity made that much difference in terms of numbers and spread, though it probably helped, and certainly helped with admissions.

    Only Wales records re-infections*, so since Omicron hit, their figures will be not comparable with rUK. If previous infection provides comparable protection to vaccines then that does make vaccine compulsion a bit redundant.

    *I believe that Scotland records reinfecion but that the headline numbers do not include these.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Speak for yourself. I’m a Pict.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,434
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    I see several PB posters are now claiming Plan B was the right thing to do.

    Can these posters explain how the numbers would have been materially different without going to Plan B?

    My analysis is that it has had precious little effect on the numbers at significant socioeconomic cost.

    As for @Stodge’s characteristically airy claim that people will behave similarly be it Plan A or Plan B.

    That’s rubbish for one major reason: while ever Plan B is in place, lots of companies prevent their staff from meeting in person.

    That’s a huge barrier to trade.

    I'm a bit reluctant to go back into the argument on its merits, since none of us will affect the outcome and we've debated it to death. Mostly I was just reporting my impression of what most people in my area think. But since you ask, I would think that wfh does reduce transmission, which is already ridiculously high, and that's helping to flatten the curve. Masks in shops? Probably, a bit. Is it a big deal?

    As for wfh being a huge barrier to trade, that depends on the business. There isn't an instruction to wfh regardless, merely to wfh if it's reasonably practical. I spend my days writing submissions to the Government, studying current research, giving remote interviews and leading work by colleagues to plan future campaigns. I could do all that just as well from anywhere, so I'm happy to comply with the instruction to do it from home. If I was running a shop, it would clearly be impractical and I wouldn't do it. It seems a reasonable rule for now though when the infection level comes down it should be replaced by merely a recommendation.

    But I'll leave it there.
    Masks in shops is a big deal. I can't be the only one keeping shopping to subsistence purchases only until the horrible things are no longer required. That surely has an economic impact.
    You aren’t the only one. Millions of people consider shopping a leisure activity. I’m not one of them, and nor, I suspect, is Nick. But one of the problems with covid rules from the beginning is that people enthusiastically support restrictions than don’t affect them.
    Still waiting on your wonderful analysis that proves Plan B was crap, you seem to prefer bumping your gums rather than showing it.
    I have already provided it: it was imposed at significant socioeconomic cost for little medical benefit. As far as I can see. I could be wrong, of course, but my sense is that the South Africans were right.

    What’s your view? Would you continue with it?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809
    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    IanB2 said:

    Even my dog wants Boris gone!

    Mind you, that's largely because he's fed up with me being glued to wall-to-wall political commentary.

    I told him that when Boris goes there'll be a lot more politics in the news. He says we'll chase that ball once it's been thrown.

    “ Even my dog wants Boris gone! “
    “Is he barking?”
    “That’s exactly why he wants him gone.”
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    edited January 16

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Speak for yourself. I’m a Pict.
    Whoops - meant to say Germanic. Not trying to pretend I'm a Royal or my dad was a POW.
    I'm partly Pict anyway too ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,434
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Poor Novax what a shame!

    I actually do feel for him. He's been mistreated here. I'm still a fan and I hope he goes on to smash all the records and end the GOAT conversation. But it's a reasonable decision by Australia. The error was granting him a visa in the first place.
    His errors are being a consistently anti-vax @sshat, not getting vaccinated, going around spreading the virus after he's got a positive result, and lying on immigration forms.

    Given that, how do you think he's been 'mistreated'?

    I feel zero sympathy for him. Like Johnson, his mistakes are all his own and unforced.
    Told he could play. Given a visa. Goes. Visa is cancelled on arrival with no due process. Held for hours at airport. Detained in a shitty hostel. Goes to court, wins and gets visa back because of the aforesaid no due process. Back in the draw. Starts prep for the tourny. Then at the 11th hour the govt cancels his visa again in order to escape the hole they themselves have dug with their incompetence.

    This is surely enough to justify using the word 'mistreated'. It was cock-up not conspiracy - they shouldn't have granted him the exemption and the visa in the first place - but it resulted in him being mistreated. So I think an accurate summary is he *was* mistreated but you have zero sympathy for him because he himself has behaved badly and is being a total twat about Covid vaccination. You're probably in the majority on this outside Serbia and the tennis world.
    Brought it on himself, lying toerag and first order arse thinking he is above the plebs. No sympathy here.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
    You really do hate the sassenachs don't you?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404
    edited January 16

    MattW said:

    Interesting one. Prince Harry suing the Home Office for the right to fund UK Police privately in their full roles to provide him with security. I wonder what Buck House thinks.

    Prince Harry is seeking a judicial review against a refusal of the Home Office to allow him to personally pay for police protection when in the UK.

    The US-based Duke of Sussex says his private security team does not have adequate jurisdiction abroad.

    He lost his taxpayer-funded police security after stepping back from royal duties in 2020.

    Prince Harry says he wants to visit his home country with his family, but needs to "ensure" their safety.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60012238

    An obvious solution would be to give him whatever protection he had before but charge him for it. Whats wrong with that?
    Most obviously perhaps, diversion of police resources that could be doing something else.

    There's also the question of extent, and whether he wants more than actual working Royals.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365

    When I started work in the private sector forty years ago there was no booze at work. The pub at 6pm was all the booze we had.

    I hate to break it to them but most of the public, and private sectors, banned drinking at work two decades or more ago.

    And before Johnson it was very unusual in Downing St.


    https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1482640970105724935?s=20

    I think there should be booze at work. It might make people more relaxed and happy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,533
    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    I have some sympathy for HYFUD whose world is on fire, albeit completely self inflicted arson over the last 3 months.

    I look forward to his unswerving loyalty to his new leader, whether Sunak or Hunt in the style of a true Tankie.
    I voted for Boris to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, both of which he achieved.

    Anything further was a bonus
    The flag gets a little bit whiter with each post
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 16

    So sad that such a famously honest, sober and rule-abiding leader has got entangled in this culture


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    according to Oliver Dowden partygate was caused by an “underlying culture” in Downing St rather than the leadership


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1482660987450929153?s=20

    One established or maintained by Theresa May? Really? Cameron I could believe, but not May.
    There's an interesting piece in the GRaun by Sonia Khan, the lady who got thrown out by Mr Cummings (IIRC AIUI going well beyond plausible chains of command, so in itself a major warning signal as to functioning of Downing St). Though I have a suspicion it's all part of the Blame the Civil Servants and Save the Pooch campaign (rather reminiscent of those leaflets old folk get sent at Christmas from certain animal charities with a photo of a yearning puppy and the not very implicit message 'pay up or the hound gets it').

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/16/from-prosecco-tuesdays-to-thank-you-tipples-no-10-has-a-serious-drink-problem
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,404

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Speak for yourself. I’m a Pict.
    Pictthewrongsport.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    Carnyx said:

    Boris is going nowhere.

    As I said.

    But if he does this week, what about your credibility? Surely there is so much uncertainty this weekend, none of us can be so sure what happens next couple of days?

    The only thing we can be sure about is wether or not the letters are in tomorrow, the Assailant will still release something to keep up momentum Tuesday evening.

    What does nowhere mean anyway, you reckon he is in for 10 years? What is your take on exit date?
    I’m making a prediction that he’ll not go in the near term. I could be wrong. I often am.

    But it doesn’t appear that the Tory Party have the cojones to get rid of him.
    Thanks.

    I had to look up cojones, my initial thought was something in find in a finger buffet with a sweet chilli dip.
    Could well be tapas in Spain for all I know. They are big on sweetbreads in the Continent.
    I think customarily served to the victorious matador.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,397

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    What's happened to all the Boris fans on here? Some of the most ardent and prolific posters on PB.

    You couldn't navigate your way around the site for adoring posts from Isam Philip Thompson DavidL Sandpit RobD Felix the Two Bigs Carlotta etc

    Now we seem to have just the lonesome voice of HYUFD. What's happened to the famous Blue Rosette loyalty?

    They are in the bunker, hatches battened down, especially Bart Simpson who has gone from 24x7 posting to invisible.
    Hello Malky. Nice sunny morning and blue sky here. I hope the ponies were good for you yesterday.
    I had one placed , that meant I cleared my feet but not rich yet.
    Hope the Scots, Irish and Welsh around here are all in good form this fine morning! Certain other PBers are a bit down in the dumps.
    I think Scot Tories have done ok out of this, tbh. Could've been a lot worse. Have to grudgingly accept that Ross neutralised the threat with impeccable timing.

    Labour remain incredibly weak north of the border. I had high hopes for Sarwar...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    There needs to be a specific word in the English language to describe going away from the Test match for about an hour and then returning with hope to see how things are getting on only to discover the headline "Dismal England Collapse".

    It would be word that captures much of what it means to be English. It would also be very useful.

    Decline-ism.
    Mind, if we were still German we could use compound words. Like Scottishfootballteamfanmelancholy.
    Swedish is fantastic at creating compound words. Once you get the hang of it you can be quite creative. A typical example:

    Flaggstångsknopp : the wee decorative bit at the top of a flagpole.

    But the record is apparently:

    Nordvästersjökustartilleriflygspaningssimulatoranläggningsmaterielunderhållsuppföljningssystemdiskussionsinläggsförberedelsearbete - 131 letters.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 25,867

    What I will concede is that this debate is arguing over split milk anyway. We had Plan B and are still in it, and can’t in any case turn back time.

    So, let’s look forward. Do any PBers support the maintenance of Plan B? Or are we all agreed it should now be binned?

    Binned. Though I agree with you it was a waste of time and money in the first place.
This discussion has been closed.