The top pollster from GE2019 has LAB lead in double figures – politicalbetting.com
The top pollster from GE2019 has LAB lead in double figures – politicalbetting.com
In other findings 76% think Johnson broke the rules (including 72% of Tory voters) , 64% think the PM isn’t telling the truth (including 50% of Tory voters) and 67% think the police should investigate (including 52% of Tory voters)
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Boris Johnson is deader than a DODO, you cannot recover from these results
63% now think the Prime Minister should resign, nearly three times the 22% who think he should remain as Conservative Party leader.
48% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 think he should go, with just 37% thinking he should stay.
The Prime Minister’s net approval rating has fallen to -42, down from -24 a week ago. This is same as the worst score we recorded for Theresa May in May 2019.
Approve 22% (-8)
Disapprove 64% (+10)
Changes on 5-7 January.
Probably.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b09gz5nz
Actually, I think that against all common sense he will try to hang on. The only person he actually listens to is Princess Nut Nut (aka Marie Antoinette) and she has no ambition to be stuck with a homeless, penniless ex-PM and two screaming brats
Boris Johnson = The 7th Earl of Cardigan
However Javid, Hunt, Gove, Truss and Patel all have 30% or less thinking they would make a good PM. All below the 31% Tory voteshare with Boris tonight.
Therefore only replacing Boris with Sunak likely to see any bounce for the Tories at all
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482444647351865353?s=20
In US, rough rule of thumb is that, for an incumbent politico, 20% voter support for re-election is the functional Deadline (in the original sense of the word).
Meaning game over about 99.46% of the time.
As I predicted it's been a thorough disaster for the Conservative Party. Boris is the pandemic made flesh, and no one wants to think about it ever again.
In case anyone thinks it is parties during lockdown, consider this.
Would we have heard what we heard if everyone was focussed on not dying?
I suspect not. The end of the pandemic has precipitated the release of all this info.
Every Tory PM from Thatcher onwards has been ousted/their Premierships ruined because of relationship with our European friends.
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
Does he not have enough supporters in the Parliamentary Party who would like to see him become PM? Is he worried about losing the leadership contest?
At question is not his guilt, only his punishment.
Johnson’s problem has not been his lying but his inability to manage it, notably when found out. He has no spin doctor, and on Wednesday had to admit himself to spin A&E. His belief that a winsome and “authentic” personality could make up for a rotten command structure and third-class aides exploded on him.
Keir Starmer…should pray for him to limp on. For Johnson, an ominous parallel is the Tory party’s ruthless ejection of Thatcher in 1990. It cleansed the Downing Street stables of the poll tax toxin, and went on under John Major to win a fourth election in a row in 1992.
If, as seems likely, Johnson’s days as a politician are now numbered, Britain’s brief excursion into populist politics will have ended. The moral of the story will be modest: that journalists, for all their vanity, should not be tempted to give up the day job.
Hunt is the best plausible choice, and then Sunak. In my view (which I've clearly massively devalued above
Is Sutton Coldfield holding elections this year as well? I think they VONC'd Boris Johnson earlier on this week.
But his statue is 16 feet tall.
That's Horatio of 3:1.
and Sutton Coldfield is City of Birmingham Council, so probably some wards.
Heck, even Zhukov wasn't this cavalier.
Even Prince Rupert would have blinked.
I've held off discussing it because of the vague whiff of misogyny that can often accompany such musings, but on the other hand... at least Dominic Cummings didn't get the ear of the PM by shagging him (one hopes!).
But when was the last time a PM's partner enjoyed the kind of power and influence that Carrie evidently has?
'Boris Johnson being a competent PM is the greatest illusion perpetuated in this country since FUSAG'
Time for you to bin Boris and promote Rishi
Dom might get the cull he was after. Perhaps this is all 3D chess again...
They can't all have been political appointees, surely.
They will be in no mood to elect a Remainer leader. Hunt won't make it to the last two. Truss is also a Remainer, but she might sneak through as "looking a bit like the next Thatcher", if the Tories are desperate
Sunak, of course, voted Leave. He has that advantage, as well
I reckon if Boris goes (and it is odds-on now, how can you possibly come back from this kind of polling) then Sunak replaces him, if the Tories have any sense (yes, yes)
Hmmm.
Boris Johnson the new George Patton?
Given it's just over two years until the next election, it's probably wise to kick him out sooner rather than later.
My guess is after the May elections.
(Actually, it wasn't quite- the Conservative campaign ensured that the Libs won by taking Labour votes, so the Conservatives remained viable contenders in future years. But rubbish for the amiable candidate.)
How quickly times change - it's amazing what a few parties can do.
When it comes to the NHS, however, there may also be deeper seated problems. IANAE but I was surprised to discover that, according to this source - https://www.statista.com/statistics/268826/health-expenditure-as-gdp-percentage-in-oecd-countries/ - which appears legitimate, UK health spending as a share of GDP wasn't particularly low going into the pandemic. Given these statistics, you have to wonder whether the British population is atypically ill, or the NHS is atypically inefficient - or, alternatively, if UK healthcare provision is not, actually, all that bad compared with the neighbours as it currently stands? For example, our life expectancy figures are very close to those of Germany.
Which means they’ll go for Truss
The first tsunami surges from an underwater volcanic eruption in the South Pacific began hitting the Washington coast shortly after 8:30 a.m. Saturday and were — as predicted — quite modest.
“It was very subtle,” said Scott McDougall, emergency management director for Pacific County, which includes the Long Beach Peninsula. “It didn’t progress beyond the beach.”
ubsequent waves are often higher than the first.
The tsunami advisory issued by the National Tsunami Warning System does not extend into Puget Sound. But out of “an abundance of caution,” King County Emergency Management also advised residents to avoid beaches and waterfront areas where strong waves and currents might be possible, said public information officer Sheri Badger.
“We’re not sure what’s going to happen in the Puget Sound waters,” she said. “We wanted to make sure people weren’t going down to the water to watch the waves coming in.”
Pacific County issued warnings to local harbors, where even small tsunamis can sometimes be amplified. But based on reports from Hawaii, where harbors escaped damage, McDougall said he isn’t too concerned.
However, he warned people to stay off the beaches — advice that many people are not heeding. . . .
Surges of up to 3 feet were expected to continue through at least the morning, and are coinciding with a moderate high tide, he said.
“These don’t appear to be damaging waves in any way,” McDougall said. “They just appear to be rising water levels.”
But Washington’s Emergency Management Division warned in a tweet that 3-foot waves could continue to arrive for several hours, and could be worse than originally forecast.
The volcanic eruption struck off the coast of the Pacific nation of Tonga, where much larger tsunami waves sent residents fleeing for higher ground.
Tsunamis of 1- to 3- feet are expected to continue sweeping northward up the Washington coast for several hours, also extending into the Strait of Juan and around the San Juan Islands.
“I think it’s not going to be a very large tsunami,” said Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network at the University of Washington.
In Bay Center, near the mouth of Willapa Bay, local fire commissioner Hugh Amaguq Ahnatook went door-to-door in the lowest-lying neighborhoods to alert residents, even though flooding of homes seems extremely unlikely.
He said the largest waves are likely to arrive around noon, based on readings from the offshore buoys that are part of the national tsunami warning system. Inside Willapa Bay, waves could reach two feet, he said.
Ahnatook also filmed what he believes were the initial tsunami surges, which manifested as slight ripples on what had been a perfectly calm water surface.
What they are, I don't know.
Troops being sent to Gotland and tanks in the harbour town and capital Visby.
The fauxcest genre is quite popular.
Why have "care navigators" of varying degrees of incompetence dotted around the country instead of big call centres in regional hubs, where standards can be monitored.
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/9K0ObE/hultqvist-angrepp-mot-sverige-kan-inte-uteslutas
Parkway in Camden is absolutely buzzing (and it is a cold if clear night - 4C)
All the restaurants that were desolate last Saturday are bustling tonight, some of the pubs are spilling onto the pavements. A transformation.
Great to see, but a little peculiar. I know business always picks up from the famously dead first two weeks of Jan (even without plague) but this is a quintupling of customers.
The rules have not changed one iota, so this is a mood change. People think it's all over, they don't care any more, everyone who wants a jab has been jabbed. Enough. The first thing PM Sunak should do is get rid of the last restrictions. Next weekend
Deep irony that Boris blows it: just as Britain gets in a Borisovian mood of boosterism and bonhomie
Johnson has not managed that. Not even remotely.
A better parallel might be Edward IV claiming in 1471 that he was only trying to reclaim the title Duke of York. Nobody believed it, but enough people wanted to believe it for it to be a successful ruse.
Even so, if it hadn't been for that fog at Barnet...
Dr Freud would nod wisely at the data. He knew all along
"WHY IS INCEST THE MOST POPULAR CATEGORY OF PORN?"
https://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/audio/podcasts/why-is-incest-the-most-popular-category-of-porn-1.9800558
Sounds a bit HYUFD.
Does Sweden have any defensive understandings with any of the Baltic states?
Actually, hypothetical question time:
You are a famous intellectual who has fallen out of favour with the ruling family in the small autocracy that you call home, and must now flee the country.
You hole up in a small, once fashionable resort town where you spend a decade or more, making of it a kind of home but without ever losing a deep, aching yearning for your homeland. You can be regularly spotted sipping a coffee at the cafe on the corner, or taking in the sunset at a nearby viewpoint.
Which resort town do you choose?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W.R.:_Mysteries_of_the_Organism
Aha!
Having read the article, that would, still make sense...