Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!

malcolmg said:

pigeon said:

Malmesbury said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 2,018.8
04-01-2022 2,082.3
03-01-2022 2,094.8
02-01-2022 2,089.7
01-01-2022 1,957

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

05-01-2022 1,862.9
04-01-2022 1,940.6
03-01-2022 1,851.3
02-01-2022 1,799.5
01-01-2022 1,726.6

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.

And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...

(a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
(b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future

There have been no restrictions other than night clubs and large sports events. The amount of people affected by those would be miniscule so it is splitting hairs in any event.

I don't know all the details of what's happened in Scotland (given that the rules there don't apply to me so I've no particular need to be aware,) but I know at least that, in addition to that, there's been table service in pubs and a wider application of masking rules. Scottish secondary schools kept them all through the Autumn. If these measures, cumulatively, were going to make any difference once Omicron rocked up then you'd expect to see something, even if Scotland were dark mauve on the case rate map whereas England were black. Ditto with the Welsh measures.

It's part of a pattern which we also see in the international data, e.g. looking at the difference in performance between the UK, France and Italy, or at the progress of the Omicron wave as it's got its teeth stuck into the hard lockdown in the Netherlands. Whatever good blanket restrictions did whilst Delta was still the dominant variant, they don't seem to be much help against Omicron. That has obvious implications for the future policy approach towards this coronavirus.

dixiedean said:

Gary_Burton said:

dixiedean said:

stodge said:

dixiedean said:

I see we are already on an only elections which matter are London Boroughs trip a bit early this year.
Suppose Labour swept Inner London, but lost most of the WM and S Yorkshire too.
Would Boris face a VONC? Or are they intrinsically less important?

I wouldn't claim they are the only elections that matter by any stretch.

I live in London and can bring far more insight to London local elections than I can elsewhere.

Fair enough. My comment was more aimed at another poster who doesn't.
However. It is a repetitive theme of the media that Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington and Barnet are of vital superimportance.
Much larger Metro boroughs elsewhere barely merit a mention.

There aren't that many councils Labour can gain in the North, possibly Kirklees and Wirral from NOC, the latter at a stretch.

I think Tory control in Dudley, Walsall and Solihull* is probably secure.

*Probably the most interesting theoretical upset if the Tories lose enough seats to Greens and LDs as Solihull could get a Green led council.

However. When the Tories hold Wandsworth (they always do) it will be portrayed as a great victory in Labour London by the media (it always is), regardless of the results elsewhere. It's been like that for over 30 years.
This is because journalists are particularly fascinated by Inner London for some strange reason.

Pulpstar said:

Using 2019 stats, the crude death rate for 90+ is 406 per week/100,000 population.
Peak English case rate amongst 90+ was 1114.1 on Jan 14th,
Peak English death rate was 352/100,000 on Jan 22nd.

So a ~ 31.6% chance of dieing from Covid at last winter's peak for 90+ vs a 0.4% chance of just, well, dieing.

Death rate now (5th Jan) is 31.7, case rate 499.7 8 days back so using the same metrics a ~ 6% chance of dieing.

Covid remains bloody dangerous for the old, but it's less so than it was.

Crossing the road is bloody dangerous for the old, being deaf, slow and half blind. Not a reason to keep us locked up, though.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!

Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

And if it's great, enjoy!

I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

"Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324

Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...

eek said:

malcolmg said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.

Ice Hockey is limited to 200 spectators.

Drinks and Food need to have waitress / waiter service to the table.

It's not a lockdown but it rules are tighter than they were in June or November 2020

The stats show that the different measures in Scotland, compared to England have made bugger all difference. Other differences, such as cold wet weather making it less likely to have windows open indoors could also have a effect. However, Sturgeon’s authoritarian tendencies need to be placated. I believe that, if she had the financial levers, she would have us locked down, just because she could. I also suspect that, if she could introduce prohibition, she would be tempted to do so.

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
I did try it, but it was no longer beau...

Or nouveau! I suspect you weren’t jolais after tasting it!

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.

Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.

If they aren't going to make any difference, why do them?

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
I did try it, but it was no longer beau...

I suspect it was no longer beau, jolais, or nouveau tbf.

Of all the measures in Scotland, the social distance requirement (And de facto closure) of nightclubs seems the most mean spirited. The demographic that goes there is light years away from much in the way of Covid danger.
"Do an lft before you visit your gran" was probably the main public health measure needed this christmas tbh.

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.

Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.

No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.

Nicola is a proper rugby fan and a patriot - she’ll want full crowds at Murrayfield.

Much less sure about The Drake.

Benpointer said:

I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

"Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324

If they didn't have nukes and a chancer in charge, they'd be irrelevant. Actually, if they didn't have a chancer in charge, they'd be no more relevant than the UK or France.

Fairliered said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
I did try it, but it was no longer beau...

Or nouveau! I suspect you weren’t jolais after tasting it!

I was not.

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

Remember the Telegraph headline:

Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
THREAD 1/10
I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20

I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.

I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today

For what it's worth I'd count you as a wise man Leon. Nutter too mind

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

MaxPB said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle
https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

251.2

Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

260.4

Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland

What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.

Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.

Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.

No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.

Nicola is a proper rugby fan and a patriot - she’ll want full crowds at Murrayfield.

Much less sure about The Drake.

We can’t wait for the rugby in this flat. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.

Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?

It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins

Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!

Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

And if it's great, enjoy!

I bought a case of Croft 1963 on spec at a country auction in December. Every time I go to an auction I come away with something I didn't intend to buy. This was my most expensive indulgence to date.

Aside from the cost, the issue is once opened VP doesn't keep, so once I open a bottle I have to drink it in one go. Which is a shame.

Sounds like a bonus to me.

All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

The likes of Chris should take note.

maaarsh said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.

Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?

It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.

Well yes, but that’s slightly different to a cohort of people who want lockdowns even though they know they don’t work!!

RobD said:

Anabobazina said:

All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

The likes of Chris should take note.

I think it would be easier for me to admit the things I got right on PB. The list would be far shorter.

what list Rob

rottenborough said:

maaarsh said:

rottenborough said:

Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...

Hard to be sure whether it's a real trend or just a chart showing when people took most tests. Wouldn't be shocked if positivity by day showed something like this, if a bit softer, though.

Wouldn't the most tests be a day or two before xmas. The classic: take a LFT the morning you set off to drive to granny's on xmas eve just to be sure?

Fair enough, just looked and that seems to be the case (although there were more tests being taken in the 'panic, tests have run out' week).

Just goes to show my instincts are pretty poorly aligned with those of people taking and registering test results.

Anabobazina said:

maaarsh said:

Anabobazina said:

MaxPB said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.

Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?

It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.

Well yes, but that’s slightly different to a cohort of people who want lockdowns even though they know they don’t work!!

Nah it's the same. Their position is so emotionally important that there is not yet anywhere near enough evidence that lockdown doesn't work to overcome it. Conversely we find it extremely easy to see lockdowns don't work.

Anabobazina said:

All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

The likes of Chris should take note.

I got it wrong for a different reason tho. I said lockdowns were useless from about mid-December, it was obvious Omicron was way too infectious. I don't think we should have even gone to Plan B. We fucked hospitality for no reason, and Whitty and Co should be ashamed

But I didn't expect HMG to show so much backbone. Good for them! They proved me wrong

I am now feeling very very very very cautiously optimistic about this. We are nearly halfway through winter. Yes January is bumpy but no it is not apocalyptic

Is this 2 year shitshow finally coming to an end? Barring another variant (please God, spare us) then it looks that way

*genuflecting to the angry demon of Covid Hubris*

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

Remember the Telegraph headline:

Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
THREAD 1/10
I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20

I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.

I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today

I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.

Now, now, don't get @Leon back on to the Xi'an outbreak.

Aliens, aliens are behind the Xi'an outbreak.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

The likes of Chris should take note.

I got it wrong for a different reason tho. I said lockdowns were useless from about mid-December, it was obvious Omicron was way too infectious. I don't think we should have even gone to Plan B. We fucked hospitality for no reason, and Whitty and Co should be ashamed

But I didn't expect HMG to show so much backbone. Good for them! They proved me wrong

I am now feeling very very very very cautiously optimistic about this. We are nearly halfway through winter. Yes January is bumpy but no it is not apocalyptic

Is this 2 year shitshow finally coming to an end? Barring another variant (please God, spare us) then it looks that way

*genuflecting to the angry demon of Covid Hubris*

Xi'an. Just saying.

What do we think Scott Morrison will do about Djokovic? I suspect he'll let him stay now and hope he gets knocked out in the 1st round.

OK off to gym


Final Xi'an thought. If the stats are to be believed, the hard lockdown there has actually worked, they are down to 15 cases from 150 a day. But the price of this is incredible. 13m citizens locked indoors, only one allowed out every three days, once, for food. People starving. Some screaming with madness. Women miscarrying outside hospitals. And 43,000 people have been forcibly moved to temporary quarantine camps which look pretty bloody horrible.

So you CAN lockdown against Omicron but it has to be so severe few countries could manage it and even fewer would tolerate it

Can China really do that with every city that gets Omicron?

Also, more flamethrowers. Again it is slightly hard to believe the flames are a bug not a feature


喷火器喷死奥密克戎！#陕西 #西安 #Xian #疫情 #COVID19 #Omicron #封城 #韭菜
Translated from Chinese by
The flamethrower blasted Omi Keron! #陕西 #西安 #Xian #疫情 #COVID19 #Omicron #封城 #韭菜

https://twitter.com/TragedyInChina1/status/1480406023517073411?s=20

Has Reynolds resigned yet?

rottenborough said:

Has Reynolds resigned yet?

From Twitter
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...

eek said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Cookie said:

Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

Remember the Telegraph headline:

Paul Nuki
@PaulNuki
THREAD 1/10
I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20

I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.

My viewpoint has always been that given the R0 of omicron, unless we locked down before it arrived no lockdown would do any good.

And the only reason for locking down would be to create a short window to ramp up booster vaccinations.

I've been saying the same thing - if its a virulent as suggested then whats the point. It wasn't *that* virulent and thanks to the booster program we've got away with regional NHS calamity rather than national.

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Has Reynolds resigned yet?

From Twitter
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...

Nothing will be done about Johnson lying to Commons.

But yes Reynolds should be phoning uber about now.

Nigelb said:

.

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.

His predecessor Jenrick, of course, did bugger all.

Words that we must be careful not to apply to a certain other minister in case OGH gets levelled by a libel lawyer.

How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

Eabhal said:

Don't really understand why the Met aren't investigating any of this.

We laugh at the US, but...

Because it’s not happening now, which is true for everyone.

Interesting thought, though. What about the police in and around Number 10? Should they have “had a word”?

Benpointer said:

What do we think Scott Morrison will do about Djokovic? I suspect he'll let him stay now and hope he gets knocked out in the 1st round.

Let’s ask our Aussie election expert HY. 🙂

So if the Morrison government don’t pull rank now and deport the worlds greatest Tennis player, is this going to prove very damaging to the government in your opinion HYUFD?

RochdalePioneers said:

Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'

It one thing saying informally nudge nudge wink wink "business meeting" in the garden tomorrow among trusted small cliche. Its quite another to email to 100 people, especially when a member of the office is married to a high profile journalist.

That goes from arrogance of rules don't apply to us to absolute moronic..

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'

Fuck Boris!
Fuck Djokovic!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life

If you can meet people OUTSIDE, you are not "locked down", are you? FFS!

Yes you are. You're quibbling with semantics Sunil.

The Tories need to "do a Theresa" and get rid of Boris asap.

Alistair said:

India estimated to have undercounted by a factor of 6

https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-may-have-killed-nearly-3-million-india-far-more-official-counts-show

That's a reduction.....i remember a reading a previous estimate that it was 10x....rather than 6x.

TimS said:

It’ll be fascinating to see how the world responds to the next novel respiratory virus. Possibly an avian flu, or another zoonotic coronavirus, or altogether something else.

You’d think we’d be better prepared and would act more quickly, certainly on the vaccines front, but would we end up taking the wrong lessons from Covid (or applying Coronavirus wisdom to an influenza outbreak).

There seems to be little or no new concerted effort to regulate human contact with wild animals for a start.

And when will the next big one be? 10 years? 20? 50? 5?

There'll certainly be pushing on an open door to generate panic. I expect we'll have a few over-reactions post covid, just as covid was under-reacted to after the multiple damp squibs that preceded it.

GIN1138 said:

The Tories need to "do a Theresa" and get rid of Boris asap.

I suspect his mps will wait until the results of the enquiries are published and just how Boris is damaged before moving on this, but I do not see Boris leading into GE23/24

Richard_Nabavi said:

Leon said:

IshmaelZ said:

kjh said:

Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle

I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage

Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!

Fortified wines will often last a pretty long time. I remember drinking an '08 Madeira.

That's 1908.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life

If you can meet people OUTSIDE, you are not "locked down", are you? FFS!

Back in the day, the term ‘staycation’ was coined for holidays in your own home, but taking day trips to local attractions. I liked it. Trouble is it got perverted and came to mean a holiday in the UK, which I had always called ‘a holiday’.
That battle has been lost sadly.
In 2020 various countries around the world imposed strict restrictions on their populations lives and freedoms. Every country had differences. Some were. Very severe, such as China, where some were welded into their homes. Some governments required you to get official permission to go shopping. In the U.K. it was pretty lax, by those standards, but even here you were able to take exercise once a day, and shop for food without asking.
All of these countries measures were called ‘lockdown’.
As with this, it’s become an abused phrase, so that the restrictions in Scotland can be called lockdown, when they really shouldn’t be.
That said, we should acknowledge that having any restrictions at all is remarkable interference in people’s lives.

Is Johnson going 'lose' more staff than Trump did while in office?

On which topic, having watched Don't Look Up last night, the way the Head of NASA had to take the hit and resign when President 'Streep' decided to use the comet as a dead cat, was one of many nice touches. Sure the film is a bit ott but we thought it was a lot of fun.

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

The Tories need to "do a Theresa" and get rid of Boris asap.

Why? The Tories are still polling mid 30s, roughly where they were under Cameron midterm. Under May by midterm in 2019 the Tories were polling well under 30%.

There is no poll showing any alternative Tory leader getting the Tories back to 40%+

You miss the point that Boris is associated with sleaze and ignoring rules together with lying and sooner rather than later he will be a negative for the conservatives and a real threat to many conservative mps seats

This is not sustainable no matter who may be his replacement

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Has Reynolds resigned yet?

From Twitter
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...

Nothing will be done about Johnson lying to Commons.

But yes Reynolds should be phoning uber about now.

It takes your breath away at the utter stupidity and lack of awareness

I did say to @MoonRabbit wallpapergate will not see Boris go but if he was there then this is getting uncomfortably close to him,
and his mps may soon need to take action

Perilous times for Boris

My son said a day or two ago Carrie will be his downfall with her extravagant tastes and love of partying and many will no doubt concur

You did Big G. 🙂

I know what you are saying, if Boris says he didn’t send the email, it’s his culture and leadership, to keep taking bottles out to gatherings at the same day his government telling rest of us we can’t do that.

However the wallpaper cash for access and exhibitions is the sort of corruption to get someone resigned or vonked. The parliamentary commissioner we saw with Paterson suspension has real teeth. When it comes It’s a low key news headline, commissioner to investigate wallpapergate, but soon as we hear it, Boris is gone in weeks.

Given the vast amount of money that property developers donate to the good cause of the Conservative Party, it's brave of Gove to threaten them in the way he has.

So I suspect they won't have to cough up in the end. Or if they do, it will be in such a way as to not affect their grotesque profits.