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Starmer has better than a 13.9% chance of being next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited January 2022

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Hi Malc.

    That is the data on 9th January
    G, on 10th Jan I see 116K in England and 11K in Scotland with 77 deaths versus zero, just to compare to your subsample, should I deduce from that that English freedoms are a big mistake
    PS: None of them can claim to have made a good job of it , past and present.
    PPS: G not being narky , just don't think any of them have a real clue or have done well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    The Port Forum is a great source for question of this nature. They're a friendly and helpful bunch.

    http://www.theportforum.com
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

    Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

    We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

    The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

    It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
    He will do square root of zero other than bump his gums. Trying to be seen to actually be doing something whilst doing F all, where has he been all these years since Grenfell.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Love to know who ITV News' source is

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

    EXCL: Email obtained by
    @itvnews
    proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

    We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

    https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @PaulBrandITV
    Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

    Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

    This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
    "proves over 100 staff..." Surely Downing Street knows better than to send mass emailings to a visible list of recipients?
    There was an arrogance in Boris Johnson's Downing Street that the rules apply?

    I know, I am shocked as you are.

    Plus, who organises a social do via email, you do it via WhatsApp.
    There was no pub to go to, heck they couldn't even go to a park due to the meet 1 other person rule of the time.

    The only place they could party was in the garden they were using for work meetings anyway so it was easier just to send an email and add alcohol to the 6pm meeting.
  • eek said:

    Love to know who ITV News' source is

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

    EXCL: Email obtained by
    @itvnews
    proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

    We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

    https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @PaulBrandITV
    Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

    Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

    This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
    It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
    Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.
    'Whoever'?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    eek said:

    Love to know who ITV News' source is

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

    EXCL: Email obtained by
    @itvnews
    proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

    We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

    https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @PaulBrandITV
    Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

    Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

    This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
    It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
    Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.
    'Whoever'?
    Whomever went gone to Cambridge have failed English.
  • eek said:

    Love to know who ITV News' source is

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

    EXCL: Email obtained by
    @itvnews
    proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

    We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

    https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @PaulBrandITV
    Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

    Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

    This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
    It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
    Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.
    'Whoever'?
    I'm blaming autocorrect.

    I've already used a grocer's apostrophe the other day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 2,018.8
    04-01-2022 2,082.3
    03-01-2022 2,094.8
    02-01-2022 2,089.7
    01-01-2022 1,957

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

    England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 1,862.9
    04-01-2022 1,940.6
    03-01-2022 1,851.3
    02-01-2022 1,799.5
    01-01-2022 1,726.6

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date
    The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.

    And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...

    (a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
    (b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future
    There have been no restrictions other than night clubs and large sports events. The amount of people affected by those would be miniscule so it is splitting hairs in any event.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    ..

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 2,018.8
    04-01-2022 2,082.3
    03-01-2022 2,094.8
    02-01-2022 2,089.7
    01-01-2022 1,957

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

    England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 1,862.9
    04-01-2022 1,940.6
    03-01-2022 1,851.3
    02-01-2022 1,799.5
    01-01-2022 1,726.6

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date
    I think the positivity rates may be a bit lower in Scotland, but on these numbers (ca 30% positivity) it is a mug's game to attempt comparisons on case numbers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249
    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited January 2022
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited January 2022
    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Using 2019 stats, the crude death rate for 90+ is 406 per week/100,000 population.
    Peak English case rate amongst 90+ was 1114.1 on Jan 14th,
    Peak English death rate was 352/100,000 on Jan 22nd.

    So a ~ 31.6% chance of dieing from Covid at last winter's peak for 90+ vs a 0.4% chance of just, well, dieing.

    Death rate now (5th Jan) is 31.7, case rate 499.7 8 days back so using the same metrics a ~ 6% chance of dieing.

    Covid remains bloody dangerous for the old, but it's less so than it was.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022
    The government made the right call in December, but people also remember that the government made the wrong call, too, in various and differing directions, earlier on in the pandemic. This is why the government are gaining only to a very limited extent from this, and only until, as predicted, Cummings has prepared another of his souffles, and brought it up for baking.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Met police tweet from May 20th 2020

    Metropolitan Police
    @metpoliceuk
    Have you been enjoying the hottest day of the year so far? Sun with face

    It is important that we all continue to #StayAlert

    You can relax, have a picnic, exercise or play sport, as long as you are:

    Rightwards arrow On your own
    Rightwards arrow With people you live with
    Rightwards arrow Just you and one other person
    3:05 PM · May 20, 2020·Twitter Media Studio
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    malcolmg said:

    pigeon said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Scotland, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 2,018.8
    04-01-2022 2,082.3
    03-01-2022 2,094.8
    02-01-2022 2,089.7
    01-01-2022 1,957

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date

    England, Specimen date, Rates per 100K, 7 day average, rolling

    05-01-2022 1,862.9
    04-01-2022 1,940.6
    03-01-2022 1,851.3
    02-01-2022 1,799.5
    01-01-2022 1,726.6

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England#card-7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date
    The broader point, however (and before this turns into an England v Scotland todger waving contest) is that, whether you use the dashboard figures or the ONS figures, there's nothing to suggest that Scotland has done any better during the Omicron wave by having additional restrictions. This, in turn, is important not because it permits us to criticise the Scottish Government, but because it suggests that the restrictions are largely or completely ineffectual against this variant.

    And if the restrictions are no longer working then, of course...

    (a) We know that we need to rely more on measures other than blanket restrictions in future, and
    (b) We have a better chance of getting rid of more of the existing rules more rapidly, and also of avoiding their making an unwelcome return in future
    There have been no restrictions other than night clubs and large sports events. The amount of people affected by those would be miniscule so it is splitting hairs in any event.
    I don't know all the details of what's happened in Scotland (given that the rules there don't apply to me so I've no particular need to be aware,) but I know at least that, in addition to that, there's been table service in pubs and a wider application of masking rules. Scottish secondary schools kept them all through the Autumn. If these measures, cumulatively, were going to make any difference once Omicron rocked up then you'd expect to see something, even if Scotland were dark mauve on the case rate map whereas England were black. Ditto with the Welsh measures.

    It's part of a pattern which we also see in the international data, e.g. looking at the difference in performance between the UK, France and Italy, or at the progress of the Omicron wave as it's got its teeth stuck into the hard lockdown in the Netherlands. Whatever good blanket restrictions did whilst Delta was still the dominant variant, they don't seem to be much help against Omicron. That has obvious implications for the future policy approach towards this coronavirus.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.
    Ice Hockey is limited to 200 spectators.

    Drinks and Food need to have waitress / waiter service to the table.

    It's not a lockdown but it rules are tighter than they were in June or November 2020
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see we are already on an only elections which matter are London Boroughs trip a bit early this year.
    Suppose Labour swept Inner London, but lost most of the WM and S Yorkshire too.
    Would Boris face a VONC? Or are they intrinsically less important?

    I wouldn't claim they are the only elections that matter by any stretch.

    I live in London and can bring far more insight to London local elections than I can elsewhere.
    Fair enough. My comment was more aimed at another poster who doesn't.
    However. It is a repetitive theme of the media that Wandsworth, Westminster, Kensington and Barnet are of vital superimportance.
    Much larger Metro boroughs elsewhere barely merit a mention.
    There aren't that many councils Labour can gain in the North, possibly Kirklees and Wirral from NOC, the latter at a stretch.

    I think Tory control in Dudley, Walsall and Solihull* is probably secure.

    *Probably the most interesting theoretical upset if the Tories lose enough seats to Greens and LDs as Solihull could get a Green led council.




    However. When the Tories hold Wandsworth (they always do) it will be portrayed as a great victory in Labour London by the media (it always is), regardless of the results elsewhere. It's been like that for over 30 years.
    This is because journalists are particularly fascinated by Inner London for some strange reason.
    Pulpstar said:

    Using 2019 stats, the crude death rate for 90+ is 406 per week/100,000 population.
    Peak English case rate amongst 90+ was 1114.1 on Jan 14th,
    Peak English death rate was 352/100,000 on Jan 22nd.

    So a ~ 31.6% chance of dieing from Covid at last winter's peak for 90+ vs a 0.4% chance of just, well, dieing.

    Death rate now (5th Jan) is 31.7, case rate 499.7 8 days back so using the same metrics a ~ 6% chance of dieing.

    Covid remains bloody dangerous for the old, but it's less so than it was.

    Crossing the road is bloody dangerous for the old, being deaf, slow and half blind. Not a reason to keep us locked up, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.
    Ice Hockey is limited to 200 spectators.

    Drinks and Food need to have waitress / waiter service to the table.

    It's not a lockdown but it rules are tighter than they were in June or November 2020
    They get 200 spectators for ice hockey?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!
    Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

    And if it's great, enjoy!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    edited January 2022
    malcolmg said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

    Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

    We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

    The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

    It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
    He will do square root of zero other than bump his gums. Trying to be seen to actually be doing something whilst doing F all, where has he been all these years since Grenfell.
    Agree, strong words but it's actions that count.

    If he actually holds good on his promise of going after the developers who caused this, and the parasites profiteering off the remediation bills, and ensuring leaseholders don't have to pay anything, then job done. But that is a big if.

    The removal of the utterly kafkaesque EWS1 form requirements which was announced today (and will happen by the end of the week) is a step forward, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

    The disgrace is it has taken four years of nightmares for leaseholders to even get to this point. And that is entirely on the Conservatives in general, and their all to cosy relationship with developers, and Jenrick in particular, who was about as much use as an inflatable dartboard.

    Edit, I should add. It was Jenrick's brief as secretary of state for housing until Sept 2021, when Gove took over, which is "where he's been" all these years since Grenfell. So fingers crossed...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

    "Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

    https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042
    Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,880
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
    I did try it, but it was no longer beau...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There is no lockdown in Scotland, you are deluded.
    Ice Hockey is limited to 200 spectators.

    Drinks and Food need to have waitress / waiter service to the table.

    It's not a lockdown but it rules are tighter than they were in June or November 2020
    The stats show that the different measures in Scotland, compared to England have made bugger all difference. Other differences, such as cold wet weather making it less likely to have windows open indoors could also have a effect. However, Sturgeon’s authoritarian tendencies need to be placated. I believe that, if she had the financial levers, she would have us locked down, just because she could. I also suspect that, if she could introduce prohibition, she would be tempted to do so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!
    Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

    And if it's great, enjoy!
    I bought a case of Croft 1963 on spec at a country auction in December. Every time I go to an auction I come away with something I didn't intend to buy. This was my most expensive indulgence to date.

    Aside from the cost, the issue is once opened VP doesn't keep, so once I open a bottle I have to drink it in one go. Which is a shame.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
    I did try it, but it was no longer beau...
    Or nouveau! I suspect you weren’t jolais after tasting it!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
    Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    If they aren't going to make any difference, why do them?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    Love to know who ITV News' source is

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1480596421766176769

    EXCL: Email obtained by
    @itvnews
    proves over 100 staff were invited to drinks party in No 10 garden at height of lockdown to “make the most of the lovely weather”.

    We’re told PM and his wife attended, with staff invited to “bring your own booze!”

    https://itv.com/news/2022-01-10/email-proves-downing-street-staff-held-drinks-party-at-height-of-lockdown

    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @PaulBrandITV
    Email was sent by the PM's Principal Private Secretary Martin Reynolds. 30-40 staff attended, eating picnic food and drinking in the garden.

    Less than an hour earlier, Oliver Dowden had told the public at the daily press conference to stick to meeting in pairs outdoors.

    This is the party Cummings was going on about, isn't it?
    It's perfectly possible that the source is someone who isn't Dom.
    Whomever is leaking is unaware of the mantra that snitches get stitches.
    'Whoever'?
    Whomever went gone to Cambridge have failed English.
    Edukashun is much mo' betta in Oxford.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
    I did try it, but it was no longer beau...
    I suspect it was no longer beau, jolais, or nouveau tbf.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited January 2022
    Of all the measures in Scotland, the social distance requirement (And de facto closure) of nightclubs seems the most mean spirited. The demographic that goes there is light years away from much in the way of Covid danger.
    "Do an lft before you visit your gran" was probably the main public health measure needed this christmas tbh.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...


    Hard to be sure whether it's a real trend or just a chart showing when people took most tests. Wouldn't be shocked if positivity by day showed something like this, if a bit softer, though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    edited January 2022
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.
    Nicola is a proper rugby fan and a patriot - she’ll want full crowds at Murrayfield.

    Much less sure about The Drake.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    My viewpoint has always been that given the R0 of omicron, unless we locked down before it arrived no lockdown would do any good.

    And the only reason for locking down would be to create a short window to ramp up booster vaccinations.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

    "Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

    https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324

    If they didn't have nukes and a chancer in charge, they'd be irrelevant. Actually, if they didn't have a chancer in charge, they'd be no more relevant than the UK or France.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
    Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?
    Killjoys who want everyone else to be as miserable as themselves.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,880

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    A few years ago I helped a friend empty his garage, picking up some of his old home brew kit as part of the deal. I came across an old bottle of wine. In classic Del Boy style in was a vintage 1988 Beaujolais Nouveau...
    I did try it, but it was no longer beau...
    Or nouveau! I suspect you weren’t jolais after tasting it!
    I was not.
  • I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

    "Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

    https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324

    Weaker, I think, but all the more dangerous because of that.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    For what it's worth I'd count you as a wise man Leon. Nutter too mind :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.
    Agree, making not a blind bit of difference. Sturgeon loves the camera though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    No argument from me Malc, I think Scotland will get rid of whatever is in place pretty soon anyway. Doesn't seem like it will make much difference either way so why keep it.
    Nicola is a proper rugby fan and a patriot - she’ll want full crowds at Murrayfield.

    Much less sure about The Drake.
    We can’t wait for the rugby in this flat. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

    I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
    Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?
    It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Applicant said:

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    UK cases down for fifth day in a row. England hospitalisations still flat. London hospitalisations down for eight days in a row. All good

    But big rise in numbers in hospital to 17,120 - sounds like its getting ever harder to discharge patients as care homes / local NHS struggle

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1480582039401287687

    England case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    251.2

    Scotland case rates per 100,000 on the 9th January

    260.4

    Despite stricter restrictions in Scotland
    What about all the other days, you will struggle to find more than one if that is indeed accurate. Just recently it was 1:20 in Scotland, 1:15 England and 1:10 London. Bit like HYFUD and his sub samples.
    Malc, you said it in your post, London was 1/10 when that England measurement was taken. Excluding London which had Omicron first would make the England data look a lot like the Scotland data. Makes sense as well because it's until December 31st, even if the restrictions in Scotland were to have any effect, it wouldn't be seen in the incidence rate for at least 7-10 days. This covered a period in time when Scottish and English restrictions were basically just plan B.
    Max, I was pointing out that you can take any point and show something. There are next to no restrictions here that make any measurable difference to England , a few football games and some nightclubs for a week. That will make hee haw difference anyway. I was merely trying to point out there is a hair's breadth between them and not enough to make anything any different. Both have been pretty crap in their handling so far.
    If they aren't going to make any difference, why do them?
    Afraid I have no clue , it would not have been my choice.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!
    Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

    And if it's great, enjoy!
    I bought a case of Croft 1963 on spec at a country auction in December. Every time I go to an auction I come away with something I didn't intend to buy. This was my most expensive indulgence to date.

    Aside from the cost, the issue is once opened VP doesn't keep, so once I open a bottle I have to drink it in one go. Which is a shame.
    Sounds like a bonus to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042
    maaarsh said:

    Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...


    Hard to be sure whether it's a real trend or just a chart showing when people took most tests. Wouldn't be shocked if positivity by day showed something like this, if a bit softer, though.
    Wouldn't the most tests be a day or two before xmas. The classic: take a LFT the morning you set off to drive to granny's on xmas eve just to be sure?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I think it would be easier for me to admit the things I got right on PB. The list would be far shorter. ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
    Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?
    It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.
    Well yes, but that’s slightly different to a cohort of people who want lockdowns even though they know they don’t work!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    Because there is always an expert on here on everything here is a question about port. I have 2 bottles I have had for a long time that I have never got around to drinking and wondered whether they were worth anything significant now or whether I should just down them (I don't think I could appreciate a really expensive bottle so it would be wasted on me so would be inclined to sell if worth a lot):

    Croft 20 yr old Tawny Port bottled in 1988 (so I assume 1968).

    Dow 1995 Late Bottle Vintage Bottled in 2000.

    Not worth anything special. Only vintage port (not including late bottled vintage) improves in the bottle
    I'd be surprised if the Tawny Port is drinkable. That is VERY old for non vintage
    Not sure, 20-year old tawny port is already rather special (better than nearly all vintage port in my experience). Dunno how well it would last in bottle, but there's an easy way to find out!
    They have to be stored really carefully, turned regularly, and you have to hope the cork is fantastic quality. Tawny port is not really meant to be kept for many decades, even the top notch stuff, AIUI

    I once did a week long tour of the Douro for the Dildo Knapper's Gazette, and learned all this stuff from the Oporto port boffins
    Yes, it's certainly not meant to be kept long, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will fall apart. As I said, easy for @kjh to find out!
    Yes, he should open it, er, right now, really. It isn't going to get better and it will eventually spoil in some form if it hasn't already

    And if it's great, enjoy!
    I bought a case of Croft 1963 on spec at a country auction in December. Every time I go to an auction I come away with something I didn't intend to buy. This was my most expensive indulgence to date.

    Aside from the cost, the issue is once opened VP doesn't keep, so once I open a bottle I have to drink it in one go. Which is a shame.
    Sounds like a bonus to me.
    Yeah but, if I drink one I only have 11 left.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    RobD said:

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I think it would be easier for me to admit the things I got right on PB. The list would be far shorter. ;)
    what list Rob
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

    I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.

    Now, now, don't get @Leon back on to the Xi'an outbreak.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    maaarsh said:

    Blimey. Family mixing at xmas and new year in a nutshell...


    Hard to be sure whether it's a real trend or just a chart showing when people took most tests. Wouldn't be shocked if positivity by day showed something like this, if a bit softer, though.
    Wouldn't the most tests be a day or two before xmas. The classic: take a LFT the morning you set off to drive to granny's on xmas eve just to be sure?
    Fair enough, just looked and that seems to be the case (although there were more tests being taken in the 'panic, tests have run out' week).

    Just goes to show my instincts are pretty poorly aligned with those of people taking and registering test results.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I think it would be easier for me to admit the things I got right on PB. The list would be far shorter. ;)
    what list Rob
    It was there in his post, just after the ;)
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    There's a weird element online that is extremely angry at the UK government for not putting restrictions in place because it's evidence to the rest of the world that it's not lockdowns that are the cause of the falls in the infection rate. Rather a mix of boosters, prior infections, behavioural change and Omicron burning through viable hosts at a very fast rate.
    Eh? That strikes me as completely barmy, do they crave lockdowns for the sake of it? Who are these nutters?
    It's not rare to start from what you want to be true and work backwards. If you've spent 18 months arguing one side, it can be very painful to pull back and say you were wrong. Twitter is full of people transparantly devastated that things are going to be OK.
    Well yes, but that’s slightly different to a cohort of people who want lockdowns even though they know they don’t work!!
    Nah it's the same. Their position is so emotionally important that there is not yet anywhere near enough evidence that lockdown doesn't work to overcome it. Conversely we find it extremely easy to see lockdowns don't work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    TimT said:

    I still can't decide whether Russia is getting stronger or weaker. The pundits seem split, here's Gideon Rachman's take in the FT:

    "Putin’s threats disguise a weakening position"

    https://www.ft.com/content/aceeaeb4-f687-41f8-858e-b3b60cd21324

    If they didn't have nukes and a chancer in charge, they'd be irrelevant. Actually, if they didn't have a chancer in charge, they'd be no more relevant than the UK or France.
    Gas too though. Gives them leverage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I got it wrong for a different reason tho. I said lockdowns were useless from about mid-December, it was obvious Omicron was way too infectious. I don't think we should have even gone to Plan B. We fucked hospitality for no reason, and Whitty and Co should be ashamed

    But I didn't expect HMG to show so much backbone. Good for them! They proved me wrong

    I am now feeling very very very very cautiously optimistic about this. We are nearly halfway through winter. Yes January is bumpy but no it is not apocalyptic

    Is this 2 year shitshow finally coming to an end? Barring another variant (please God, spare us) then it looks that way

    *genuflecting to the angry demon of Covid Hubris*
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

    I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.
    I take it it needs to be both before we lockdown - even then it needs an R0 that is low enough to make a lockdown worthwhile.

    So I'm going for not even then...
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

    I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.

    Now, now, don't get @Leon back on to the Xi'an outbreak.
    Aliens, aliens are behind the Xi'an outbreak.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    O/T I'm going to have to send my new Macbook Air back due to a faulty battery... it doesn't seem to losing any charge.

    Been using it for a week now on and off and it still doesn't need charging.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Leon said:

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I got it wrong for a different reason tho. I said lockdowns were useless from about mid-December, it was obvious Omicron was way too infectious. I don't think we should have even gone to Plan B. We fucked hospitality for no reason, and Whitty and Co should be ashamed

    But I didn't expect HMG to show so much backbone. Good for them! They proved me wrong

    I am now feeling very very very very cautiously optimistic about this. We are nearly halfway through winter. Yes January is bumpy but no it is not apocalyptic

    Is this 2 year shitshow finally coming to an end? Barring another variant (please God, spare us) then it looks that way

    *genuflecting to the angry demon of Covid Hubris*
    Xi'an. Just saying.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    I'll put my hand up in a different way. I felt we would not *need* a lockdown, as lockdowns are pointless against Omicron, and I said so on here. So I got that bit right. But I predicted lockdowns would happen anyway, as I thought the government would give in to scientific/media pressure. I got that wrong (thank God)


    Credit to those like @kinabalu who predicted there would be no more lockdown. A good call, from quite a distance


    Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, which is in its 20th day of total hard lockdown, cases are close to their all-time high: 27,900 today
    I also called no lockdown, I said the government couldn't afford it.

    I'm sticking to my prediction that only a new vaccine resistant and flesh eating variant will lead to a new lockdown.

    Now, now, don't get @Leon back on to the Xi'an outbreak.
    I did always say the most likely explanation of Xi'an was Omicron. With a 5% chance of something weirder or creepier

    On that note, China is still denying that it is Omicron which is freaking them out in Xi'an, yet they HAVE now admitted they have Omicron in Tianjin. Quite peculiar behaviour from the CCP
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    What do we think Scott Morrison will do about Djokovic? I suspect he'll let him stay now and hope he gets knocked out in the 1st round.
  • Leon said:

    All credit to Leon and Ben for admitting they got it wrong lockdowns. A rare sight on PB.

    The likes of Chris should take note.

    I got it wrong for a different reason tho. I said lockdowns were useless from about mid-December, it was obvious Omicron was way too infectious. I don't think we should have even gone to Plan B. We fucked hospitality for no reason, and Whitty and Co should be ashamed

    But I didn't expect HMG to show so much backbone. Good for them! They proved me wrong

    I am now feeling very very very very cautiously optimistic about this. We are nearly halfway through winter. Yes January is bumpy but no it is not apocalyptic

    Is this 2 year shitshow finally coming to an end? Barring another variant (please God, spare us) then it looks that way

    *genuflecting to the angry demon of Covid Hubris*
    Amazing what a 100+ conservatives rebels have achieved
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249
    OK off to gym


    Final Xi'an thought. If the stats are to be believed, the hard lockdown there has actually worked, they are down to 15 cases from 150 a day. But the price of this is incredible. 13m citizens locked indoors, only one allowed out every three days, once, for food. People starving. Some screaming with madness. Women miscarrying outside hospitals. And 43,000 people have been forcibly moved to temporary quarantine camps which look pretty bloody horrible.

    So you CAN lockdown against Omicron but it has to be so severe few countries could manage it and even fewer would tolerate it

    Can China really do that with every city that gets Omicron?

    Also, more flamethrowers. Again it is slightly hard to believe the flames are a bug not a feature


    喷火器喷死奥密克戎!#陕西 #西安 #Xian #疫情 #COVID19 #Omicron #封城 #韭菜
    Translated from Chinese by
    The flamethrower blasted Omi Keron! #陕西 #西安 #Xian #疫情 #COVID19 #Omicron #封城 #韭菜

    https://twitter.com/TragedyInChina1/status/1480406023517073411?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757

    What do we think Scott Morrison will do about Djokovic? I suspect he'll let him stay now and hope he gets knocked out in the 1st round.

    By a short jab?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042
    Has Reynolds resigned yet?

  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,166
    It’ll be fascinating to see how the world responds to the next novel respiratory virus. Possibly an avian flu, or another zoonotic coronavirus, or altogether something else.

    You’d think we’d be better prepared and would act more quickly, certainly on the vaccines front, but would we end up taking the wrong lessons from Covid (or applying Coronavirus wisdom to an influenza outbreak).

    There seems to be little or no new concerted effort to regulate human contact with wild animals for a start.

    And when will the next big one be? 10 years? 20? 50? 5?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Has Reynolds resigned yet?

    From Twitter
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

    And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Thanks everyone for the advice on port. Really appreciated. Looks like I should have asked the question 30 years ago. Fingers crossed the Tawny is ok. How about the LBV? I assume you only keep Vintage? I really know nothing about them other than liking the taste.

    In terms of looking after it - probably not well. They lie on their sides in my garage. They get turned occasionally.

    Thought about it because of my 2 visits to Portugal last year where I had port after every single meal (I don't eat breakfast) and it reminded me to open them.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just think - in the week prior to Christmas it was being confidently briefed that we were looking at a post-Christmas lockdown of some sort. Rule of six. Children's birthday parties to be illegal. Schools staying open if we were lucky.
    And we had that weird day where whatever was being proposed couldn't get through cabinet and then wasn't announced - much to the fury of many in the media and sage.
    In the counterfactual world (aka: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) where the cabinet lost its nerve, we'd now be in week one or two of a second winter lockdown, with government sources confidently telling us that cases were starting to fall because of the tough measures they'd put in place.

    Yes, we REALLY dodged the bullet, and I am happy to give Boris and the Cabinet a lot of credit for that. I don't believe Labour would have resisted the scientists - and journalists - screaming for lockdown

    Remember the Telegraph headline:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....


    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20
    I'll put my hand up. I thought we were going to need a lockdown but I now think that would have been pointless.
    My viewpoint has always been that given the R0 of omicron, unless we locked down before it arrived no lockdown would do any good.

    And the only reason for locking down would be to create a short window to ramp up booster vaccinations.
    I've been saying the same thing - if its a virulent as suggested then whats the point. It wasn't *that* virulent and thanks to the booster program we've got away with regional NHS calamity rather than national.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    .
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

    Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

    We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

    The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

    It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
    His predecessor Jenrick, of course, did bugger all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042
    eek said:

    Has Reynolds resigned yet?

    From Twitter
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

    And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...
    Nothing will be done about Johnson lying to Commons.

    But yes Reynolds should be phoning uber about now.
  • Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,757
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Blimey! Comrade Gove is after the property developer class

    Strong words from Gove, I'm genuinely impressed... so far.

    We need to see if he follows through on those strong words, though.

    The cladding scandal has been completely buried by Covid news, but I know so many people (usually first time buyers in their 20s and 30s who bought in good faith), people whose lives have been upturned by the whole kafkaesque nightmare in the last couple of years. Ridiculous bills, being made to produce forms your freeholder won't sign off on, being unable to sell or remortgage, being made to pay for "waking watches" which is £30k a month for the building for one guy to sit in a hut on his phone, sleepless nights, facing bankruptcy...

    It is a national disgrace and one I hope today was a step towards putting right.
    His predecessor Jenrick, of course, did bugger all.
    Words that we must be careful not to apply to a certain other minister in case OGH gets levelled by a libel lawyer.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    Don't really understand why the Met aren't investigating any of this.

    We laugh at the US, but...
  • How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    eek said:

    Has Reynolds resigned yet?

    From Twitter
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

    And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...
    Nothing will be done about Johnson lying to Commons.

    But yes Reynolds should be phoning uber about now.
    The leakers arn’t targetting mere bit part players 🙂
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Eabhal said:

    Don't really understand why the Met aren't investigating any of this.

    We laugh at the US, but...

    Because it’s not happening now, which is true for everyone.

    Interesting thought, though. What about the police in and around Number 10? Should they have “had a word”?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

    I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    What do we think Scott Morrison will do about Djokovic? I suspect he'll let him stay now and hope he gets knocked out in the 1st round.

    Let’s ask our Aussie election expert HY. 🙂

    So if the Morrison government don’t pull rank now and deport the worlds greatest Tennis player, is this going to prove very damaging to the government in your opinion HYUFD?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited January 2022
    kjh said:

    Thanks everyone for the advice on port. Really appreciated. Looks like I should have asked the question 30 years ago. Fingers crossed the Tawny is ok. How about the LBV? I assume you only keep Vintage? I really know nothing about them other than liking the taste.

    In terms of looking after it - probably not well. They lie on their sides in my garage. They get turned occasionally.

    Thought about it because of my 2 visits to Portugal last year where I had port after every single meal (I don't eat breakfast) and it reminded me to open them.

    I am not sure where @Leon got the 'turn regularly' idea from. Move as little as possible was always my understanding.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,249

    Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

    So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

    Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2022

    eek said:

    Has Reynolds resigned yet?

    From Twitter
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Martin Reynolds should get a cardboard box and start packing his desk.

    And Tim (formerly of this Parish) seems to think that Starmer has managed to get Boris to lie to Parliament about this party...
    Nothing will be done about Johnson lying to Commons.

    But yes Reynolds should be phoning uber about now.
    It takes your breath away at the utter stupidity and lack of awareness

    I did say to @MoonRabbit wallpapergate will not see Boris go but if he was there then this is getting uncomfortably close to him,
    and his mps may soon need to take action

    Perilous times for Boris

    My son said a day or two ago Carrie will be his downfall with her extravagant tastes and love of partying and many will no doubt concur
  • How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

    I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'
    It one thing saying informally nudge nudge wink wink "business meeting" in the garden tomorrow among trusted small cliche. Its quite another to email to 100 people, especially when a member of the office is married to a high profile journalist.

    That goes from arrogance of rules don't apply to us to absolute moronic..
  • Leon said:

    Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

    So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

    Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life
    If you can meet people OUTSIDE, you are not "locked down", are you? FFS!
  • How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

    I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'
    Fuck Boris!
    Fuck Djokovic!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,336
    tlg86 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Don't really understand why the Met aren't investigating any of this.

    We laugh at the US, but...

    Because it’s not happening now, which is true for everyone.

    Interesting thought, though. What about the police in and around Number 10? Should they have “had a word”?
    I would like to think the Superiors of those No 10 officers will be having a word now...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Leon said:

    Still have to pick at the word "lockdown". Even during the first "you must stay at home" mandate you didn't have to stay at home. You could go out and exercise and go and shop without someone from the government* telling you that you couldn't. Out running in those first few weeks, or bobbing into town to pick up takeaway was very very odd - but not lockdown.

    So only China actually does ‘lockdown’?

    Bollocks. If I can’t meet friends indoors, or in a pub, and people are working from home, that’s a lockdown. A total perversion of normal human life
    If you can meet people OUTSIDE, you are not "locked down", are you? FFS!
    Yes you are. You're quibbling with semantics Sunil.
  • How much of a moron do you have to be to a) email out invites to a rules busting piss up and b) do so knowing that the husband of a journalist at ITV works in your office.....

    I think it's arrogance as much as stupidity. 'Rules are for the little people.'
    Is it stupidity to assume rules don't matter to him when he has broken the rules all his life and been consistently rewarded for it?

    Something like this would likely have brought down the May, Cameron, or Brown administrations but it won't bring down the Johnson one, because he breaks so many rules enough of the public either give him extra leeway or get bored of it all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    The Tories need to "do a Theresa" and get rid of Boris asap.
This discussion has been closed.