Voters continue to socially distance from BoJo & the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Voters continue to socially distance from BoJo & the Tories – politicalbetting.com
New Scottish Westminster poll, Opinium 15 – 22 Dec (changes vs 3 – 8 Sep):SNP ~ 48% (-3)Lab ~ 22% (+5)Con ~ 17% (-4)LD ~ 7% (+2)Others 6%, tables not yet available for breakdown. pic.twitter.com/NzEhKH4agP
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How earth did TSE miss this.
Drunk and Rumpoled?
Omicron is probably a little bit less impacting on the population than the original strain but the idea it's mutated to be the same level as a cold is ridiculous and wrong.
We have not yet seen COVID genuinely mutate to be on the same level as a cold. Now that may still happen but it doesn't mean it will, smallpox hasn't mutated to be less deadly. HIV hasn't either.
So to me, what we need to do is ensure immunity in the population remains high, such that the NHS and hospitals are not overwhelmed. And if we can prevent people dying needlessly we also should.
That means putting into plans now as to how we deal with that over the next months/years. If that means more boosters, then more boosters. If it means something else, then that.
My biggest concern is right now the headlines and the public attitude will go to "it's all gone away now" and the Government will probably go there too. This is the wrong approach.
City 4 Leicester 0.
26 minutes played.
Not bad for Labour in comparison to all their recent Westminster polling but they would be lucky to gain more than 2/3 seats based only on anti SNP tactical voting.
What they do think is that it is not going away, and life must go on.
What happens if you introduce a cold to someone who has never had one at age 80? I'm not so sure you wouldn't get a similar result to Covid-19. The problem is that this virus is novel more than anything else.
These same voters happily voted for Keir Starmer, David Lammy and Alastair Campbell in various ways between 1997 and 2019, I think you overstate the impact of these people to be honest
Followed by:
“You can shove your ****ing lockdown up your arse.”
I would argue the latest UK wide polls are not good at all for the SNP. For if Labour win most seats or a majority then Starmer could completely ignore the SNP demands for an indyref2 exactly as Boris has done. All Sir Keir would do is appoint Gordon Brown to run a commission on a more Federal UK.
If Tory MPs fear losing the next general election and remove Boris and he is replaced with Sunak, then Sunak also polls much better in Scotland than Boris does.
So Sturgeon and the SNP must surely therefore be hoping for something of a Boris revival. For if Boris leads the Tories into the next general election and wins most seats but not a majority then Sturgeon and Blackford have Starmer where they want him. No indyref2, no Starmer premiership.
The SNP need 2022 to be a better year for Boris as much as Tories do
What vaccination gives us is the ability to live normal lives with the risk of covid reduced to acceptable levels.
And with the knowledge that if covid infection does happen that it will reduce the risk from further infections even more.
I don't want a lockdown, I want to avoid one wherever possible. So we need to ensure we do everything we can to prevent such an outcome. Where we disagree is to whether it's an option.
SNP Types -3
Long may this trend continue.
Should that be 'without?'
In any case, that's rather misleading. Although the Tories won 11 seats in Scotland, which is indeed the difference between their majority and a hung Parliament, their opponents won 61 seats.
So without Scotland the score line would have been 325-254 and a majority of 71.
I think Major would have been pretty happy with that...
John Major is an utter Unionist, I once heard him speak at at event, you got the feeling the proudest result for him was the Tory gain in Scotland.
Put it this way, he'd rather lose a general election in which Scotland is a part of the Union rather than win a general election in which Scotland isn't part of the Union.
*autocorrect bizarrely made this 'the do O'Mara.' Genuine WTAF moment!
My understanding was that, on the subject of devolution in 1997, the Civil service originally advised of a likelihood of 'disagreements between the centre and the devolved entities, with the latter seeking to push the boundaries of their competence'. Having these parliaments based on national boundaries with limited decision making functions certainly seems to weaken the overall political coherance of the UK. The SNP have certainly played on this, to promote the cause of independence. It is hard to envisage how the 2014 referendum would have come about, without the preceding decade of devolved government.
I think they're stuffed in the NE, though.
Cameron, Hague, IDS and Howard were more toxic in Scotland than Boris was. Boris still got 25% of the Scottish vote and 6 Scottish Tory MPs in 2019
The problem for the Government is if they judge that the explosion of cases is going to lead to severe shortages of manpower at the same time as hospitalisations rise. I don't think it's an easy decision and I won't criticise them if they do or don't lock down further. But I'd expect them to make up their minds so we know where we are, and to support industries badly affected by whatever they decide.
To put it in context, Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win an overall majority without gaining a double figure spread of seats in Scotland
Compare and contrast with the kool-aid overdose that is @Farooq
Will that resonate? It depends. But Starmer is not going to throw away a shot at Number Ten by positioning himself far the to the side of the Conservative Party. Frankly, all be needs to do is promise slightly closer relations than them.
I believe that several deaths were attributed to Typhoid Mary, and that she is suspected in others. Cooking kills the bacteria, but one of her specialties was peach ice cream.
Authorities first tried to persuade her to do safer jobs, but, perhaps because she could earn more as a cook, she refused, so finally they confined her.
Long Live The Union!
"I came top in the maths exam, after John, James, Joe, Josie, Jane, Jacky and Julia!"
Just heard a horrifying tale at the salon
Repeated customers - including 3 young women in 1 day - report being rushed to A&E with heart problems after having their booster, having never had cardiac issues before
I have zero reason to believe my hairdresser would make this up
https://twitter.com/ThatAlexWoman/status/1474333849085784069
We would call this out if it were a BBC or ITV presenter, why does she get away with it?
What we see is Omicron hitting a vaccinated population with - currently - high levels of immunity. We would see the same if the original Coronavirus strain had hit the same vaccinated population.
Wishful thinking by many here
I am reminded that Ruth Davidson lead them to 14.9% in 2015 so actually it is 2 points off of their absolute base.
It was also still a foolish political mistake that made it look like Scotland was being singled out.
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/1475146019188916230
I don't know how reliable that source is of course, but it doesn't seem implausible given their situation.
So beware the headline figures .
Catch you all laters.
(Edit - and Younger was Scottish as well, anyway.)
As for delta, the new variant is a bit less good at endangering the population than Delta but this will become a small issue as immunity wanes.
The studies conclude Omicron still is extremely dangerous to the population as immunity wanes, including and especially to the unvaccinated but also those unboosted.
We're not out of the woods yet, not by a long way
It wasn't so much the poll tax per se which did for Maggie.
But the continued insistence it would be popular revealing just how out of touch she'd become.
We see this in the studies that show two doses gives reduced protection.
Sitting around is not enough, "just let it run through" is also a silly response.
George Younger was Scottish all right, or rather more precisely and relevantly MP for a Scottish constituency, but S of S by virtue of an administration for which the Scots did not vote, generally: which was a serious problem when the Scots got landed with this new tax.
They definitely have not concluded there is nothing to worry about