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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates
Just over 2 hours till the #debate starts and Betfair punters makes a YES victory a 13.5% chance. Will tonight's event turn the tide?
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Off to watch on a friend's set!0
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For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
Hoist with his own petard0 -
Well, we have been discussing Medieval history on the last thread. Now for something a little more up to date...0
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How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.
But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!0 -
Oh for a muse of fire to ascend the brightest heaven of invention. A Kingdom for a stage, Princes to act and Monarchs to behold the swelling scene!dr_spyn said:For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
Hoist with his own petard0 -
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Humph.
My housemates want to "watch the football" or something.
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Has the floor been wiped yet? If so by whom?0
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@DavidBrackenbury
The moon shone on the garden gate, it shone on little Nell, Was she waiting for her lover? Was she fu......
Perhaps not, I suspect you are all going for a higher level of culture.
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Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.Hugh said:How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.
But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!0 -
Agreed.RobD said:
Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.Hugh said:How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.
But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!0 -
Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.
But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".
Must be maddening.
*some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.0 -
Demechelis is a ringer for AB de Villiers0
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Format for tonight (thanks telegraph):
ECTION ONE: Opening statements – Alex Salmond will go first, Alistair Darling second. (Mr Salmond won the coin toss and elected to go first).
SECTION TWO: The issues- The two men will debate four topics titled: Economy; Scotland at Home; Scotland in the World; What Happens after the Vote. (Each will be introduced with a question from the audience.)
SECTION THREE: Cross-examination – Alistair Darling will go first, Alex Salmond second. (Mr Darling won the coin toss and elected to go first).
SECTION FOUR: Closing statements – Alex Salmond will go first, Alistair Darling second. (Mr Darling opted to go second).0 -
This feels like going into an exam. A vague feeling of dread with some top notes of optimism. In theory I could go a long way to becoming stateless in the next hour and a half. It is not a pleasant feeling.0
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I hope Darling winds Salmond up, as Salmond won't like that and will get pissy about it.0
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Agreed.kle4 said:
Agreed.RobD said:
Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.Hugh said:How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.
But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!
Harvest festival day / Halloween, good timing and keeps it Pagan and traditional and non-political.
One for PM Ed I reckon.0 -
It begins!0
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'We want a day off in the autumn too' day has a good ring to it, even if it is a bit blunt. Harvest festival day it is.Hugh said:
Agreed.kle4 said:
Agreed.RobD said:
Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.Hugh said:How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.
But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!
Harvest festival day / Halloween, good timing and keeps it Pagan and traditional and non-political.
One for PM Ed I reckon.0 -
Same goes for betting websitesHugh said:Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.
But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".
Must be maddening.
*some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
Edit
Oh apologies I thought you meant linked to on the side bar to the right0 -
Salmond opening with Thatcher - always an easy option I suppose.0
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That background is positively weird. Strong start from Salmond. He did this the last time too.0
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"Plan B" !0
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Darling opening with casting doubt on Salmond personally - also probably an easy option.0
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Darling looks nervous.0
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So, who bet on currency?0
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Darling nervous but was last time.0
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I do blame the Tories for Scots wanting independence. It has got worse over the years. Whereas John Major may have been able to debate with Salmond, there was no chance Cameron could have done so.0
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Yeah, reading from the script doesn't look good. I suspect this, and the last part, are the only scripted bits?Tykejohnno said:Darling looks nervous.
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Darling going straight For the throat.0
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The game's afoot:DavidBrackenbury said:
Oh for a muse of fire to ascend the brightest heaven of invention. A Kingdom for a stage, Princes to act and Monarchs to behold the swelling scene!dr_spyn said:For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
Hoist with his own petard
Follow your spirit,0 -
Darling: You might hear some good lines from[Salmond] tonight. But remember, a good line is not always a good answer.
That's a good line. Wait...0 -
@hucks67
I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.0 -
Q1 Would we be financially safe?0
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"Probably not for the best on balance" isn't a meh, it's a good definition of what constitutes a No. And on principle, it's a good thing that those votes count just as much as the noisy minority.Hugh said:Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.
But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".
Must be maddening.
*some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.0 -
Darling better as soon as he gets off script. Quite strange really.0
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Vote NO, get Ed!
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Darling seems nervous, but at the same time he's coming across as more genuine.0
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The sensible option is PR and coalition.Socrates said:@hucks67
I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.0 -
Salmond - comes out walking!
Got to gamble I suppose.0 -
Still struggling on the currency though0
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Liverpool looking good but still have a defence like a paper plate. Awful.0
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Well if you want to keep the Pound - stay in the Union!
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I thought at one time you were a strong supporter of the Tories or came across to me that way.Socrates said:@hucks67
I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.
The problem with the Tories is that many of the current MP's don't represent most of the people around the country. They are seen as out of touch rich folk, who want a career in politics to further their business interests. You could argue the same about some Labour MP's.0 -
Much better by Salmond so far. Darling struggling with the oil question.0
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Not compared to the positive and energised Yes Campaign it isn't.david_herdson said:
"Probably not for the best on balance" isn't a meh, it's a good definition of what constitutes a No. And on principle, it's a good thing that those votes count just as much as the noisy minority.Hugh said:Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.
But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".
Must be maddening.
*some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.
Honestly, to see what I mean pop to Scotland. It feels like a country that's about to vote Yes, overwhelmingly. But it probably isn't.0 -
True enough. Even being PM is probably a stepping stone for some.hucks67 said:
I thought at one time you were a strong supporter of the Tories or came across to me that way.Socrates said:@hucks67
I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.
The problem with the Tories is that many of the current MP's don't represent most of the people around the country. They are seen as out of touch rich folk, who want a career in politics to further their business interests. You could argue the same about some Labour MP's.
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Darling playing things with a straight bat. Think that's a smart move.0
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Damaging for Darling if he is portrayed as a Tory mouthpiece..0
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Nick Clegg has unfortunately tarnished coalition in my eyes, by not being strong enough in government. Lib Dems should have stuck by their values more. There is no way that Farage would be such a poodle.david_herdson said:
The sensible option is PR and coalition.Socrates said:@hucks67
I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.
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Salmond's battering Darling.0
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Technical estimates on oil production seems quite important to this debate - how much are people swayed by thoughts on how soon it might run out and how much will be gotten from it? Do they tend toward the optimistic view? If so, feels like point Salmond.0
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really not sure on this walking trick.0
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Oil a draw for me. But Salmond much more fluent than last time.0
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Q2 I would like a definitive answer about what currency we will be using.0
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A vote for yes is a vote for the pound - Not convinced0
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Salmond on top so far but coming to front of stage seems abit false to me.0
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28931054
Ukraine crisis: President calls snap vote amid fighting. Well the vote is to be on 26th October, it doesn't look snappy to me.0 -
Plan B0
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I don't like the clapping, not to mention the walking.0
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three plan B's not a great line imo0
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I guess it's hard to judge what sort of impact such things have, but it feels like something some presentation guru as impressed upon Salmond, 'Make eye contact, don't place a barrier between you and the questioner' etc etc, but which is the sort of thing that always gets my back up personally, like I'm being managed, like some work reorganisation where the people running it are trained to thank everyone who makes a contribution, no matter how banal, and insist the employees are running the process when it is patently not the case.IOS said:really not sure on this walking trick.
It's stagecraft, obviously, but it is a little too obvious. Probably harmless either way though.
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Darling being a shouty finger-pointing independently angry eyebrows man. Too much. Especially given the fact that several plan-b options given.0
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Salmond is absymal on the currency question.0
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It won't be our own currency if we leave.0
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Quite - it was my understanding they had already determined there would be early elections later this year in any case.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28931054
Ukraine crisis: President calls snap vote amid fighting. Well the vote is to be on 26th October, it doesn't look snappy to me.0 -
We will welch threat.
Where's Malcom?0 -
Salmond is still very very bad on the currency.0
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I am a little concerned at the rapturous applause at the line about accepting the will of the Scottish people and accept a currency union, because it is one issue where I think the Union side has a clear cut indisputable argument that you need agreement between both sides, and if one does not agree you cannot have it. I don't even see how that is undemocratic in the slightest. It might be stupid, but it is a decision the No side are perfectly able to take.
Salmond coming across as much more confident on the currency issue, despite a poor argument I think - he's making it easier for the Yes side to claim victory by acting much more openly than last time as though Darling is not making any sense0 -
Think Darling is being a bit complicated to get a clear message across.0
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If Scotland wants to walk away from the pound good luck in getting a currency union.0
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Salmond has come up with new traps and dodges, Darling seems to be falling into ones he knew how to avoid last time.
On a different note, kudos to PaddyPower for offering in-play betting on the winner. Gutsy move most bookies haven't yet been willing to offer.0 -
Salmond is being sneaky there. No one ever denies Scotland can use the pound but they cannot guarantee a currency union. He is playing tricks with words and that is duplicitous.0
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JamesM
And therein is why he is losing. HE is flat out making stuff up. For example on the euro Britain has an opt out in the euro Scotland would not.0 -
Glen Campbell balanced but needs to stop Salmond interupting.0
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Darling flapping like Salmond did last time.0
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Rebels on the offensive in the Donbass looking to retake Mariupol.
Political and diplomatic situation moving away from the Americans too.
http://mobile.euobserver.com/foreign/1253310 -
Possibly. The faux astonishment as though Darling has conceded to a crucial Yes point was well done. Both sides have always done what they can to rebut the arguments they pretend the other are making, not the ones they are actually making, and he did that well there.JamesM said:Salmond is being sneaky there. No one ever denies Scotland can use the pound but they cannot guarantee a currency union. He is playing tricks with words and that is duplicitous.
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The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.0
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Half time in Salmond is winning.
He reversed the currency question.0 -
Dsrling now sounds like he is supporting currency union, Game to Salmond.0
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See this would be a good question to walk to. But he has already walked the first two.0
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Q3 How wil independence chjange\improve the NHS?0
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Not taking a share of the debt would be a very dodgy move. What would the IMF, other governments and the ratings agencies think about that ? I doubt they would like it and Scotland would get penalised.0
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hucks67 Cameron of course is part Scot, Major fully English0
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Now we are back to the SNP narrative of "we want an independent lefty fiefdom".0
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Salmond so much more at ease than the first one, he looks good, while Darling looks continually flustered.
I cannot see him improving during the NHS section - lots of Tory bashing coming?0 -
On the debate, Salmond projecting a more telegenic presence with some good soundbites, but Darling better on the facts0
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Darling repeatedly hammered Salmond with "What if you're wrong?" last time and plays the "I'm a loyal Scot who wants the best for it regardless of outcome" card the whole time. He made a rod for his own back there and does need a Plan B given it.RobD said:The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.
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Sorry, he is arguing for the status quo, so why does he need a plan B?Quincel said:
Darling repeatedly hammered Salmond with "What if you're wrong?" last time and plays the "I'm a loyal Scot who wants the best for it regardless of outcome" card the whole time. He made a rod for his own back there and does need a Plan B given it.RobD said:The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.
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Darling just accused Yes of playing scaremongering. Risky as hell.0
