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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Just over 2 hours till the #debate starts and Betfair punters makes a YES victory a 13.5% chance. Will tonight's event turn the tide?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Off to watch on a friend's set!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
    Hoist with his own petard
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 354
    Well, we have been discussing Medieval history on the last thread. Now for something a little more up to date...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.

    But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 354
    dr_spyn said:

    For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
    Hoist with his own petard

    Oh for a muse of fire to ascend the brightest heaven of invention. A Kingdom for a stage, Princes to act and Monarchs to behold the swelling scene!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Hugh
    If I drain my last bottle, I will never make it through the debate!
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 354
    Smarmeron said:

    @Hugh
    If I drain my last bottle, I will never make it through the debate!

    Time to get to the Off License?? Hurry!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Humph.

    My housemates want to "watch the football" or something.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Grandiose said:

    Humph.

    My housemates want to "watch the football" or something.

    iPlayer!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Has the floor been wiped yet? If so by whom?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidBrackenbury
    The moon shone on the garden gate, it shone on little Nell, Was she waiting for her lover? Was she fu......
    Perhaps not, I suspect you are all going for a higher level of culture.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    RobD said:

    Grandiose said:

    Humph.

    My housemates want to "watch the football" or something.

    iPlayer!
    Oh aye. Besides, when we were deciding to get a TV licence, I didn't lead with "so I can watch political debates"...


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Hugh said:

    How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.

    But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!

    Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    RobD said:

    Hugh said:

    How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.

    But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!

    Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.
    Agreed.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.

    But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".

    Must be maddening.

    *some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Demechelis is a ringer for AB de Villiers
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Format for tonight (thanks telegraph):

    ECTION ONE: Opening statements – Alex Salmond will go first, Alistair Darling second. (Mr Salmond won the coin toss and elected to go first).

    SECTION TWO: The issues- The two men will debate four topics titled: Economy; Scotland at Home; Scotland in the World; What Happens after the Vote. (Each will be introduced with a question from the audience.)

    SECTION THREE: Cross-examination – Alistair Darling will go first, Alex Salmond second. (Mr Darling won the coin toss and elected to go first).

    SECTION FOUR: Closing statements – Alex Salmond will go first, Alistair Darling second. (Mr Darling opted to go second).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    This feels like going into an exam. A vague feeling of dread with some top notes of optimism. In theory I could go a long way to becoming stateless in the next hour and a half. It is not a pleasant feeling.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I hope Darling winds Salmond up, as Salmond won't like that and will get pissy about it.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Hugh said:

    How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.

    But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!

    Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.
    Agreed.
    Agreed.

    Harvest festival day / Halloween, good timing and keeps it Pagan and traditional and non-political.

    One for PM Ed I reckon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    It begins!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Hugh said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Hugh said:

    How exciting though eh. Last Bank Holiday till the long stretch to Christmas was crap. We're all melancholically draining the last bottles, as much as we dare with work looming.

    But at least we've got Salmond v Darling in the referendum debate!

    Yeah, there needs to be an Autumn bank holiday.
    Agreed.
    Agreed.

    Harvest festival day / Halloween, good timing and keeps it Pagan and traditional and non-political.

    One for PM Ed I reckon.
    'We want a day off in the autumn too' day has a good ring to it, even if it is a bit blunt. Harvest festival day it is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2014
    Hugh said:

    Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.

    But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".

    Must be maddening.

    *some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.

    Same goes for betting websites

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

    Edit
    Oh apologies I thought you meant linked to on the side bar to the right
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Salmond opening with Thatcher - always an easy option I suppose.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    That background is positively weird. Strong start from Salmond. He did this the last time too.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    "Plan B" !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Darling opening with casting doubt on Salmond personally - also probably an easy option.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Darling looks nervous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    So, who bet on currency?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Darling nervous but was last time.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    edited August 2014
    I do blame the Tories for Scots wanting independence. It has got worse over the years. Whereas John Major may have been able to debate with Salmond, there was no chance Cameron could have done so.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Tykejohnno said:

    Darling looks nervous.

    Yeah, reading from the script doesn't look good. I suspect this, and the last part, are the only scripted bits?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Darling going straight For the throat.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited August 2014
    DavidBrackenbury said:

    dr_spyn said:

    For 'tis the sport to have the engineer.
    Hoist with his own petard

    Oh for a muse of fire to ascend the brightest heaven of invention. A Kingdom for a stage, Princes to act and Monarchs to behold the swelling scene!
    The game's afoot:
    Follow your spirit,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Darling: You might hear some good lines from[Salmond] tonight. But remember, a good line is not always a good answer.

    That's a good line. Wait...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @hucks67

    I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Q1 Would we be financially safe?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Hugh said:

    Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.

    But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".

    Must be maddening.

    *some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.

    "Probably not for the best on balance" isn't a meh, it's a good definition of what constitutes a No. And on principle, it's a good thing that those votes count just as much as the noisy minority.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Darling better as soon as he gets off script. Quite strange really.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Vote NO, get Ed!

    :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Darling seems nervous, but at the same time he's coming across as more genuine.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Socrates said:

    @hucks67

    I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.

    The sensible option is PR and coalition.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    DavidL said:

    Darling better as soon as he gets off script. Quite strange really.

    Again, same as last time

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Salmond - comes out walking!

    Got to gamble I suppose.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Still struggling on the currency though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Liverpool looking good but still have a defence like a paper plate. Awful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Gadfly said:

    DavidL said:

    Darling better as soon as he gets off script. Quite strange really.

    Again, same as last time

    Yep.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Well if you want to keep the Pound - stay in the Union!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    IOS said:

    Still struggling on the currency though


    Plans B, C and D tonight. Clear rethink.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Socrates said:

    @hucks67

    I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.

    I thought at one time you were a strong supporter of the Tories or came across to me that way.

    The problem with the Tories is that many of the current MP's don't represent most of the people around the country. They are seen as out of touch rich folk, who want a career in politics to further their business interests. You could argue the same about some Labour MP's.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Much better by Salmond so far. Darling struggling with the oil question.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    david_herdson said:

    Hugh said:

    Thing about this is, what you read on Pro Independence websites* is largely true. The Yes campaign is energised, focussed and exciting. It has the ground game, arguments and momentum.

    But it's meeting an immovable object of Meh. Not so much a No "campaign" as a collective shrug of the shoulders and a weary "probably not for the best on balance, so I'll go No".

    Must be maddening.

    *some of which are excellent but bizarrely banned from being linked to on PB.

    "Probably not for the best on balance" isn't a meh, it's a good definition of what constitutes a No. And on principle, it's a good thing that those votes count just as much as the noisy minority.
    Not compared to the positive and energised Yes Campaign it isn't.

    Honestly, to see what I mean pop to Scotland. It feels like a country that's about to vote Yes, overwhelmingly. But it probably isn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    hucks67 said:

    Socrates said:

    @hucks67

    I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.

    I thought at one time you were a strong supporter of the Tories or came across to me that way.

    The problem with the Tories is that many of the current MP's don't represent most of the people around the country. They are seen as out of touch rich folk, who want a career in politics to further their business interests. You could argue the same about some Labour MP's.
    True enough. Even being PM is probably a stepping stone for some.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Darling playing things with a straight bat. Think that's a smart move.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    edited August 2014
    Damaging for Darling if he is portrayed as a Tory mouthpiece..
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    david_herdson said:

    Socrates said:

    @hucks67

    I've come to the view that the Tories are busted as a brand. The sensible long term strategy for the Right is for UKIP and the Tories to merge, and thus straddle the working class-middle class divide. Unfortunately the Tories have been stupidly short-sighted in trying to smear their potential allies.

    The sensible option is PR and coalition.
    Nick Clegg has unfortunately tarnished coalition in my eyes, by not being strong enough in government. Lib Dems should have stuck by their values more. There is no way that Farage would be such a poodle.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Salmond's battering Darling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Technical estimates on oil production seems quite important to this debate - how much are people swayed by thoughts on how soon it might run out and how much will be gotten from it? Do they tend toward the optimistic view? If so, feels like point Salmond.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    really not sure on this walking trick.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Oil a draw for me. But Salmond much more fluent than last time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    IOS said:

    really not sure on this walking trick.

    He does it too often. Once might be good but every time?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Q2 I would like a definitive answer about what currency we will be using.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    IOS said:

    really not sure on this walking trick.

    He looks like a twat doing it live, but it makes his clips on the news look better. It's a good trick.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    A vote for yes is a vote for the pound - Not convinced
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Salmond on top so far but coming to front of stage seems abit false to me.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28931054

    Ukraine crisis: President calls snap vote amid fighting. Well the vote is to be on 26th October, it doesn't look snappy to me.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Plan B
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    I don't like the clapping, not to mention the walking.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    three plan B's not a great line imo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    IOS said:

    really not sure on this walking trick.

    I guess it's hard to judge what sort of impact such things have, but it feels like something some presentation guru as impressed upon Salmond, 'Make eye contact, don't place a barrier between you and the questioner' etc etc, but which is the sort of thing that always gets my back up personally, like I'm being managed, like some work reorganisation where the people running it are trained to thank everyone who makes a contribution, no matter how banal, and insist the employees are running the process when it is patently not the case.

    It's stagecraft, obviously, but it is a little too obvious. Probably harmless either way though.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Darling being a shouty finger-pointing independently angry eyebrows man. Too much. Especially given the fact that several plan-b options given.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Salmond is absymal on the currency question.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    It won't be our own currency if we leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    MikeK said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28931054

    Ukraine crisis: President calls snap vote amid fighting. Well the vote is to be on 26th October, it doesn't look snappy to me.

    Quite - it was my understanding they had already determined there would be early elections later this year in any case.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    We will welch threat.

    Where's Malcom?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Salmond is still very very bad on the currency.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Think Darling is being a bit complicated to get a clear message across.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited August 2014
    I am a little concerned at the rapturous applause at the line about accepting the will of the Scottish people and accept a currency union, because it is one issue where I think the Union side has a clear cut indisputable argument that you need agreement between both sides, and if one does not agree you cannot have it. I don't even see how that is undemocratic in the slightest. It might be stupid, but it is a decision the No side are perfectly able to take.

    Salmond coming across as much more confident on the currency issue, despite a poor argument I think - he's making it easier for the Yes side to claim victory by acting much more openly than last time as though Darling is not making any sense
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If Scotland wants to walk away from the pound good luck in getting a currency union.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Salmond has come up with new traps and dodges, Darling seems to be falling into ones he knew how to avoid last time.

    On a different note, kudos to PaddyPower for offering in-play betting on the winner. Gutsy move most bookies haven't yet been willing to offer.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    Salmond is being sneaky there. No one ever denies Scotland can use the pound but they cannot guarantee a currency union. He is playing tricks with words and that is duplicitous.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    JamesM

    And therein is why he is losing. HE is flat out making stuff up. For example on the euro Britain has an opt out in the euro Scotland would not.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Glen Campbell balanced but needs to stop Salmond interupting.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Darling flapping like Salmond did last time.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Rebels on the offensive in the Donbass looking to retake Mariupol.

    Political and diplomatic situation moving away from the Americans too.
    http://mobile.euobserver.com/foreign/125331
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    JamesM said:

    Salmond is being sneaky there. No one ever denies Scotland can use the pound but they cannot guarantee a currency union. He is playing tricks with words and that is duplicitous.

    Possibly. The faux astonishment as though Darling has conceded to a crucial Yes point was well done. Both sides have always done what they can to rebut the arguments they pretend the other are making, not the ones they are actually making, and he did that well there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Half time in Salmond is winning.
    He reversed the currency question.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    Dsrling now sounds like he is supporting currency union, Game to Salmond.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    See this would be a good question to walk to. But he has already walked the first two.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Q3 How wil independence chjange\improve the NHS?
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Not taking a share of the debt would be a very dodgy move. What would the IMF, other governments and the ratings agencies think about that ? I doubt they would like it and Scotland would get penalised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    hucks67 Cameron of course is part Scot, Major fully English
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Now we are back to the SNP narrative of "we want an independent lefty fiefdom".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Salmond so much more at ease than the first one, he looks good, while Darling looks continually flustered.

    I cannot see him improving during the NHS section - lots of Tory bashing coming?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    On the debate, Salmond projecting a more telegenic presence with some good soundbites, but Darling better on the facts
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RobD said:

    The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.

    Darling repeatedly hammered Salmond with "What if you're wrong?" last time and plays the "I'm a loyal Scot who wants the best for it regardless of outcome" card the whole time. He made a rod for his own back there and does need a Plan B given it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Quincel said:

    RobD said:

    The moderator was wrong there. Alastair doesn't require a plan B, because the Union exists as it is.

    Darling repeatedly hammered Salmond with "What if you're wrong?" last time and plays the "I'm a loyal Scot who wants the best for it regardless of outcome" card the whole time. He made a rod for his own back there and does need a Plan B given it.
    Sorry, he is arguing for the status quo, so why does he need a plan B?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    IOS said:

    See this would be a good question to walk to. But he has already walked the first two.

    He's walking them all which as someone pointed out downthread looks terrible at the moment but when the lowlight clips are shown it possibly could look sincere.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Darling just accused Yes of playing scaremongering. Risky as hell.
This discussion has been closed.