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Today’s Times main leader won’t go down well at Number 10 – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Why is that a problem for BritNats? Labour are as BritNat as the Conservatives?
    Their voters in Scotland aren't - even after losing many voters to both the Tories and SNP. The current Labour voting population is split on the issue.
  • HYUFD said:

    If the SNP were on 60% of the vote and 60% of Scots + wanted independence that might be true.

    When the SNP got less than 50% of the vote in May and Scots are still divided 50% 50% on independence at most in the majority of polls then Boris can get away with refusing indyref2 indefinitely and he will as long as the Tories stay in power
    Pro-independence legislators = ?
    Anti-independence legislators = ?
    Speaker = 1

    Fill in the gaps.

    Scots are not as thick as you think they are.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Pro-independence legislators = ?
    Anti-independence legislators = ?
    Speaker = 1

    Fill in the gaps.

    Scots are not as thick as you think they are.
    I'm also struck by HYUFD's statement that he doesn't care who runs Scotland so long as it is Unionist. That is (like Ms Davidson's public utterances as SCUP head) putting British nationalism first, second and third.

    As with the care policy - what happened to Conservative care for good government?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Data is here:

    https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/find-data-and-publications/supplementary-information/2019-supplementary-information-files/mean-and-median-length-of-stay-of-hospital-inpatient-episodes

    I was of course picking the worst Trust, which, as noted, are all mental health Trusts and not as indicative of the wider NHS estate.

    You can also have a look at:

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/urgent-emergency-care/reducing-length-of-stay/reducing-long-term-stays/

    Thanks.

    Yep, you picked a bit of an outlier there. Even the mean and median are very different, so they must have a few very long stays.

    The numbers from other trusts are still bad enough, that said.

    Big problems with long stays in hospital due to a lack of better suited options, for sure.
  • Carnyx said:

    Their voters in Scotland aren't - even after losing many voters to both the Tories and SNP. The current Labour voting population is split on the issue.
    Yepp. Up to 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Jonathan said:

    Is herd immunity still a thing?
    Of course it is. It somehow picked up a bad name last year as the initial plan was to get less at risk people protection via infection (i.e. after they recover, they are a lot less likely to catch it again). As became apparent this would have meant 500,000 deaths in the UK and an overwhelmed health service, so we used lockdowns to suppress the virus. Now we have vaccines, we are providing protection without needing infection so the deaths should be much reduced. But its still a herd immunity approach.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    Stocky said:

    Of course. As opposed to what?

    Spain may have already reached it:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00495-1/fulltext
    Interesting that a paper in the Lancet uses case numbers without any attempt to correct for different testing rates.

    A sensible person would be using hospitalisation rates for a comparison.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    Selebian said:

    OWiD puts Europe confirmed deaths ~1.4 million and 1.85/1000 pop, so more like 2.6/1000 to get to 2 million in OWiD stats. Maybe different sources/definitions? Depends of course on what counts as a death and on the denominator population.

    Edit: I'd still hope that's overly pessimistic
    Quick google puts population of Europe ~750 million, so also ~2.6/1000. Unless Big G's original quote was for EU, in which case the number per population would be in excess of 4/1000 (EU pop ~450 million). I very much hope it was a wider Europe number.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727

    I'm reminded of the line that the trouble with lying is that it's such hard work; you have to remember your story because reality can't do it for you.

    So much of Bozza's story is phoney, and it's hard to escape the impression that it goes back to his messed up childhood.

    And his intelligence and willingness to make stuff up have worked well up to now; he's got away with the lies by being so smart. His path up the greasy pole has worked, and maybe he wouldn't have got there taking the conventional Cameron/May route.

    But it leaves him really exposed now.
    Regarding Boris's childhood, soon after he became PM I visited a National Trust property and in the tea room I overheard a group of very upper middle class women discussing Boris. One of them said, with an accent that would make Penelope Keith sound rough: "But he comes from such a very peculiar family." A significant section of Conservative supporters have always seen him as what they would call "a rum cove."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yepp. Up to 40% of SLab voters are pro-independence.
    Indeed. Are they ever going to vote for a Tory FM?

    Not sure what the equivalent figure for LDs is, but they are below the SGs anyway at Holyrood.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Carnyx said:

    I'm also struck by HYUFD's statement that he doesn't care who runs Scotland so long as it is Unionist. That is (like Ms Davidson's public utterances as SCUP head) putting British nationalism first, second and third.

    As with the care policy - what happened to Conservative care for good government?
    The assumption may be that, as all nationalists are obsessed with constitutional affairs to the exclusion of all else, not wanting one to run Scotland is a prerequisite for good government.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    I wonder what Sadiq Khans approval rating will be at the end of his 2nd term
    I wouldn't guess if I were you going by your efforts yesterday in guessing the split in political alliances on this site.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    As part of an anti-sexual harassment campaign, TfL have unveiled posters warning people against STARING inappropriately.

    I saw on on the commute this morning.

    Ridiculous.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Farooq said:

    The Conservative Party feels so different today even compared to 5 or 6 years ago. I was slower than some to notice the change, so it baffles me that there are still those who haven't spotted it. I'll be fascinated to see how it goes post-Boris, to see if they return to something of the noble principles and dour, sensible stewardship of the past. Conservatism is a sound guiding principle, and totally absent from cabinet today. Can it come back?
    I think the change happened in Scotland with Ruth Davidson - more and more, albeit with hindsight, a Johnson avant la lettre, though a lot better organised and dressed. She was so much of a PR image and so single-slogan, so fixated on indyref 2 - much as Mr Johnson was Brexit - that I was never quite sure what the underlying policies were. And she remade the Scottish Tory party in her image, too.

    Compare her with Annabel Goldie.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    kjh said:

    I wouldn't guess if I were you going by your efforts yesterday in guessing the split in political alliances on this site.
    Looking at the comments this morning how anyone thinks that party support is equal currently on this site is beyond me.
  • Selebian said:

    Quick google puts population of Europe ~750 million, so also ~2.6/1000. Unless Big G's original quote was for EU, in which case the number per population would be in excess of 4/1000 (EU pop ~450 million). I very much hope it was a wider Europe number.
    Sky said European region so not sure how that is properly defined
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    It has always been and will always be a thing.

    The only question is *how* you acquire the immunity.
    People seem to keep getting this bug and there is no herd immunity from things like flu as it evolves.

    I hope you're right, but a moment of herd immunity, bosh done, appears as far away as ever.
  • Selebian said:

    Thanks.

    Yep, you picked a bit of an outlier there. Even the mean and median are very different, so they must have a few very long stays.

    The numbers from other trusts are still bad enough, that said.

    Big problems with long stays in hospital due to a lack of better suited options, for sure.
    No-one would ever consider charging for them though, regardless of means, which was my original point.
  • As part of an anti-sexual harassment campaign, TfL have unveiled posters warning people against STARING inappropriately.

    I saw on on the commute this morning.

    Ridiculous.

    Trouble is that some of the posters are very sensible - upskirting, flashing, sexual comments, sexual contact etc. But it is undermined by bot the one on staring and the one on pressing up against someone. How the hell do you not press up against someone on a crowded tube train? The first rule of laws is that they must be enforceable. I don't see how some of these can be.
  • HYUFD said:

    Any payments paid towards care count towards the £86,000, however top ups to get the best food and the nicest rooms don't, you still pay that yourself.

    Fair enough, the taxpayer should cover most of your care costs, the taxpayer should not cover the costs of ensuring your residential care home is luxurious
    That's fair enough. At the moment you can't pay towards top-up costs yourself without making you a total self-funder.
  • kinabalu said:

    Some of that, for sure. But I think Brexit works even more powerfully the other way. Johnson has banked enormous credit with Leavers for breaking the impasse and driving it through. Not only that but the style in which he did it. The Brexit Wars in many ways were a war and via Johnson the Leave side achieved total victory. The forces of Remain were utterly crushed. That has to feel brilliant. Imagine how Hard Remainers would have felt if they'd managed to pull off another vote and then cancellation of the whole shebang. So, doing the 'empathize with others' thing, I definitely understand why it'll take an awful lot for his supporters in the Leave community to abandon him.
    You'd think so. However...

    YouGov’s monthly read-out on the Q: ‘Do you think that Boris Johnson is doing well or badly as Prime Minister?’.

    On left: 29% well (-3 on 25 Oct); 64% badly (+4 on 25 Oct).

    On right: crossover, as first time Johnson as PM registers a net negative rating among Leavers.


    https://t.co/6wLdRbylpZ
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    kinabalu said:

    Ah interesting. I didn't see that Extra Slice you refer to there. What did he say?
    Basically that every week is judged just on the that week, and that being star baker more than once is no guarantee of reaching the final. It was pretty obvious he was referring to Jurgen.
  • Most people are not political nerds like folks on here (apologies to any non nerds). I went for a check up at my dentist recently. The young dental nurse advised she had voted for Boris because he made her laugh. The politically aware dentist did suggest that might not be the best reason but she responded she knew nothing about politics and just voted for someone she likes.


  • eek said:

    Supposedly we've hit lucky with the flu vaccine and it's protecting against this year's main flu strains.

    Bigger question is who has actually had it given that the plan seems to be to offer it alongside booster shots.

    We had ours in September because it's something I sort out as soon as they become available due to missing out in the past.
    In my area they are being given separately. The flu jabs are given at the local surgery whilst boosters are using the dedicated vaccination centre at the local sports centre.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817
    edited November 2021

    Also, I don't think many people would have an issue with a 'front man' if he had backup behind him. If he's going to wing speeches, then why isn't some smart bod there writing the speech for him, put a few Boris florishes in there, but have it properly targeted, focused and messaged.

    What you don't want is Boris making it up the day of the speech just throwing memes having a garbled mess with no real point of it. Which just about sums up his premiership right now.

    I don't think he knows his limitations. The most basic people expect of a government is professionalism and compentancy and thats severely lacking with Boris, and I don't think he's capable of forming it.
    I agree. And the risk for him is the vibe changes from "Such a card" to "Doesn't appear to give a shit". It's often said that one of Labour's problems is they seem to be sneering at folk. That they lack respect for the electorate. Whatever the merits of that, which are slim imo, the key point is that how Johnson speaks and behaves demonstrates exactly this - a fundamental lack of respect for other people. One can speculate where this comes from but it doesn't really matter. As you say it's ingrained, therefore won't be changing, but perhaps what he can do is try and hide it a bit better. Yesterday it was all hanging out.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    I'm reminded of the line that the trouble with lying is that it's such hard work; you have to remember your story because reality can't do it for you.

    So much of Bozza's story is phoney, and it's hard to escape the impression that it goes back to his messed up childhood.

    And his intelligence and willingness to make stuff up have worked well up to now; he's got away with the lies by being so smart. His path up the greasy pole has worked, and maybe he wouldn't have got there taking the conventional Cameron/May route.

    But it leaves him really exposed now.
    Your 1st para is so true. I once worked at a small company where it started getting very weird. Stuff not adding up. I left to set up my own business. Many of my customers were customers of my old firm but in a different role and I was now representing them. It became clear from talking to them that one of my old employer's salesman was a crook. I reported him to my old firm and he was fired. But the lies he had been telling were so convoluted and the effort he had to put in was so enormous to keep the facade up I thought it would have been easier to be honest. I came to the conclusion he was a sociopath by his actions. It was bound to collapse sometime, but I was impressed by the ability to keep up the deception up till then.

  • In my area they are being given separately. The flu jabs are given at the local surgery whilst boosters are using the dedicated vaccination centre at the local sports centre.
    Last year we were told you had to have a two week gap between the two jabs, but they had a trial in October which changed that advice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/30/flu-covid-jabs-safe-same-time-study
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Trouble is that some of the posters are very sensible - upskirting, flashing, sexual comments, sexual contact etc. But it is undermined by bot the one on staring and the one on pressing up against someone. How the hell do you not press up against someone on a crowded tube train? The first rule of laws is that they must be enforceable. I don't see how some of these can be.
    #MeToo educated me in how common and awful sexual harassment is. So it’s not a bad idea for a campaign.

    But it really gets on my tits when they try to add “staring”. Are we supposed to keep our eyes on the ground, lest someone be offended by a “look”.

    (I am aware that leering is obnoxious, but one person’s leer is another person’s “my face just looks like this).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    Selebian said:

    Thanks.

    Yep, you picked a bit of an outlier there. Even the mean and median are very different, so they must have a few very long stays.

    The numbers from other trusts are still bad enough, that said.

    Big problems with long stays in hospital due to a lack of better suited options, for sure.
    When my Grandad died, in 2017 at the age of 97, it was after 14 days in hospital, where the mean and median length of stays are 10.1 and 4 days respectively.

    He'd broken his hip, had an operation to fix that, picked up an infection, died due to the wall of part of his gastro-intestinal system disintegrating.

    He'd already been living in a care home for some time. Even had he recovered I would have thought he would have been in hospital for a long time before he was ready to return to the care home.

    I am sure there is lots that can be done to find more suitable places for some patients to convalesce, but you will always have some patients who are simply quite ill for a long time.

    It might be organizationally simpler to have additional convalescent wards, appropriately staffed, so with fewer expensive medical staff, and then the transfer from one ward to another would be less of a threshold, and involve less of a turf war between funding bodies.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,325
    Selebian said:

    Quick google puts population of Europe ~750 million, so also ~2.6/1000. Unless Big G's original quote was for EU, in which case the number per population would be in excess of 4/1000 (EU pop ~450 million). I very much hope it was a wider Europe number.
    No need to hope: WHO Europe region includes Russia, the Stans, Caucasia.
    https://www.euro.who.int/en/countries
    (it also includes the UK...)

    Google population doesn't include all the Stans, so the population will be around 800 million?
  • Endillion said:

    The assumption may be that, as all nationalists are obsessed with constitutional affairs to the exclusion of all else, not wanting one to run Scotland is a prerequisite for good government.
    That might make sense, were it not for the fact that Ross, Sarwar and Cole-Hamilton are also nationalists.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Europe's latest wave of Covid authoritarianism has set a dangerous new precedent
    The absence of moral scruple in pursuit of what is thought to be a public good is the first symptom of totalitarianism
    JONATHAN SUMPTION" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/22/europes-new-wave-covid-authoritarianism-has-set-dangerous-new/
  • Last year we were told you had to have a two week gap between the two jabs, but they had a trial in October which changed that advice.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/sep/30/flu-covid-jabs-safe-same-time-study
    I think though that it is more complicated than that. GP Surgeries make a lot of money out of flu jabs. I mean a really big part of their yearly income. So where possible they are trying to retain control of them rather than surrendering them to the vaccination centres. At the same time a lot of areas are still using vaccination centres and not devolving boosters to local GPs. So the scope for doing both at the same time is limited in many areas.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    kinabalu said:

    I agree. And the risk for him is the vibe changes from "Such a card" to "Doesn't appear to give a shit". It's often said that one of Labour's problems is they seem to be sneering at folk. That they lack respect for the electorate. Whatever the merits of that, which are slim imo, the key point is that how Johnson speaks and behaves demonstrates exactly this - a fundamental lack of respect for other people. One can speculate where this comes from but it doesn't really matter. As you say it's ingrained, therefore won't be changing, but perhaps what he can do is try and hide it a bit better. Yesterday it was all hanging out.
    Also the audience, namely the CBI, is already pretty irritated at the Conservatives after being ignored and derided. This was an opportunity to build bridges, what it has actually done is break the Employers irrevocably from Johnson personally. If some emergency repairs are not done then that could lead to a breakdown between the CBI and the Tories as a whole. It really is very damaging to tell many of your major backers that you neither like nor even respect them. "Fuck business", actually "Fuck you, Boris".
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    madmacs said:

    Most people are not political nerds like folks on here (apologies to any non nerds). I went for a check up at my dentist recently. The young dental nurse advised she had voted for Boris because he made her laugh. The politically aware dentist did suggest that might not be the best reason but she responded she knew nothing about politics and just voted for someone she likes.


    Very common, I'd say, across all of society. Governing is complex, it takes a lot of time and effort to really understand the issues and make an informed decision, so why not go with instinct based on who you trust/like better? Partly what sunk Ed Miliband. My wife's not particularly politically engaged (she sometimes asks me how she should vote, depsite being very smart and highly educated - holds a PhD, earned more than me etc etc) and I remember watching the 2015 debates interviews with her and she thought Cameron looked like he would do a better job. We talked through some of the policy differences afterwards and she was more pro the Labour positions, on the whole (I obviously have my own biases, so may not have been entirely fair in presentation, although I tried to be). Not sure how she voted in the end; not even sure we discussed how we'd voted. Safe Lab seat at the time anyway, so pretty irrelevant.
  • Farooq said:

    The Conservative Party feels so different today even compared to 5 or 6 years ago. I was slower than some to notice the change, so it baffles me that there are still those who haven't spotted it. I'll be fascinated to see how it goes post-Boris, to see if they return to something of the noble principles and dour, sensible stewardship of the past. Conservatism is a sound guiding principle, and totally absent from cabinet today. Can it come back?
    Yes. Post-independence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107

    Pro-independence legislators = ?
    Anti-independence legislators = ?
    Speaker = 1

    Fill in the gaps.

    Scots are not as thick as you think they are.

    Votes for pro independence parties in May 2021 ie SNP and Greens and Alba 49% on the constituency vote and 50.12% on the list.

    Votes for Unionist parties in May 2021 ie Conservative and Labour and LD and All for Unity and Abolish the Scottish Parl, RefUK and UKIP 50.42% on the constituency vote and 47.94% on the list, so as I said about equally divided.

    Therefore Boris can and will refuse indyref2 as long as he stays in power
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited November 2021
    I’ve just realised there is no term limit on the London mayoralty and that effectively Sadiq is mayor for as long as he likes.

    😭😭😭
  • madmacs said:

    Most people are not political nerds like folks on here (apologies to any non nerds). I went for a check up at my dentist recently. The young dental nurse advised she had voted for Boris because he made her laugh. The politically aware dentist did suggest that might not be the best reason but she responded she knew nothing about politics and just voted for someone she likes.


    That's a very good point about the Boris phenomenon. The fact of the matter is that Boris does have a very endearing persona. I wonder how many of those who hate his politics, and claim to hate his style, secretly wishes he was on their side?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    Looking at the comments this morning how anyone thinks that party support is equal currently on this site is beyond me.
    I thought it was pretty equal across Tory/Lab/LD. A straw poll yesterday put the Tories in the majority. Nobody, literally nobody, regardless of political persuasion, thought your guess was anywhere near accurate. Do you think you might be biased and be putting all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab pile?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    Numbers in hospital are currently FALLING, not least due to the boosters. Over 15M given now.
    I think probably that's more driven by the fact that cases were falling previously. More recent numbers in England hospitals seem to have inflected, although we will know more in a week or so.

    I think it's very optimistic to think that boosters alone will be enough to counteract increased cases/increased R from Christmas.
  • Cicero said:

    Also the audience, namely the CBI, is already pretty irritated at the Conservatives after being ignored and derided. This was an opportunity to build bridges, what it has actually done is break the Employers irrevocably from Johnson personally. If some emergency repairs are not done then that could lead to a breakdown between the CBI and the Tories as a whole. It really is very damaging to tell many of your major backers that you neither like nor even respect them. "Fuck business", actually "Fuck you, Boris".
    They are not representative of employers. They are a self-selecting group who like feather-bedding, government subsidy and protection from competition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021
    Farooq said:

    That depends on what you mean by "get away with". If some people get frustrated at the intransigence of London and take their campaign away from the ballot boxes (and it only takes a minority), that's something for which the intransigent will be partially responsible for. Yes, Boris can get away with it because the consequences are pretty unlikely to touch him in a meaningful way, but to provoke disorder would shame and tarnish him in the eyes of a few of those who currently respect him.
    If a minority of Nationalists try to resort to mob rule then that would tarnish them not Boris, legally they could do nothing about it.

    There can be no change to the Union without Westminster consent, as confirmed by the Scotland Act 1998.

    If Sturgeon tries to stir up violence amongst nationalists, which I am sure she won't, then she would invite arrest as the Spanish government and courts arrested Catalan nationalist leaders in 2017 for trying to pursue independence and UDI without Madrid's agreement
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    kjh said:

    I thought it was pretty equal across Tory/Lab/LD. A straw poll yesterday put the Tories in the majority. Nobody, literally nobody, regardless of political persuasion, thought your guess was anywhere near accurate. Do you think you might be biased and be putting all the LDs and half the Tories in the Lab pile?
    I probably am although my thoughts go back to 2018/19 when this site felt that it was 60% Tory. It does not feel anything like that at the moment.
  • HYUFD said:


    Votes for pro independence parties in May 2021 ie SNP and Greens and Alba 49% on the constituency vote and 50.12% on the list.

    Votes for Unionist parties in May 2021 ie Conservative and Labour and LD and All for Unity and Abolish the Scottish Parl, RefUK and UKIP 50.42% on the constituency vote and 47.94% on the list, so as I said about equally divided.

    Therefore Boris can and will refuse indyref2 as long as he stays in power
    Unionists try to make Scots run the hurdles while they run a flat race.

    The pro-independence parties won fair and square, under the electoral system established by Westminster. Trying to claim that it was a referendum-by-proxy after the event fools no-one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    If he was so discredited at the time how come he was "value" at 1.5?

    How come you could back Boris at ~3 for most of the campaign?
    Betting odds are a reliable guide as to what's going to happen in an election?

    It's a theory, I suppose.

    Livingstone was widely seen as over the hill and beginning to go loopy, and the anti-semitic stuff was beginning to surface. I'm not misremembering the only time in my life I've given any sort of preference in the ballot box to a Tory, and that wouldn't have happened had Livingstone been credible for re-election; Ken had been my second preference on both of his previous runs.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    rkrkrk said:

    I think probably that's more driven by the fact that cases were falling previously. More recent numbers in England hospitals seem to have inflected, although we will know more in a week or so.

    I think it's very optimistic to think that boosters alone will be enough to counteract increased cases/increased R from Christmas.
    I don't. Remember who is in hospital. The unvaxxed and the frail and elderly. If the latter get boosted, it will help keep them out of the wards. We will eventually run out of feckwits who don't want the vaccine.
    I'm not convinced that with schools closed and people not at work (ok some people) the increase in R will be that big.
  • That might make sense, were it not for the fact that Ross, Sarwar and Cole-Hamilton are also nationalists.
    Indeed. On that basis perhaps their obsession with constitutional affairs is why the Britnat SCons will never manage better than a distant second in Holyrood?

    'Who bangs on about independence more?

    What can we infer from this? Scottish Labour has long been reluctant to talk up – or about – independence. The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, have been at the heart of the action – as we see from the most recent data for 2016-21. That might be why the Tories sit today as the second-largest party, rather than Labour.
    A landmark moment came in 2017 when Conservative MSPs, led by Ruth Davidson, were responsible for more mentions of independence (33 per cent of the total) than the governing SNP (30 per cent of the total). That was despite the Scottish Tories having fewer than half as many seats.'

    https://tinyurl.com/4k73znr5
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    It amuses me that after Boris had announced his candidacy for Mayor of London the betting markets opened with Livingstone as the heavy odds-on favourite . . . and there were thread headers describing Livingstone as "value" even at odds-on.

    And now the line to take is that Livingstone was discredited? Well he wasn't until he was beaten in 2008 . . . he was the heavy odds-on favourite and "value" at that in 2007 when the Mayoral campaigning began.

    What is it about Boris that his opponents subsequently become discredited? Maybe because he's beaten them, that could be a factor?
    It was pretty obvious at the time.
    I have a lousy record on UK betting, but even I made money on Johnson.
  • Best prices - Next independence referendum

    Yes EVS
    No 13/9
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    I’ve just realised there is no term limit on the London mayoralty and that effectively Sadiq is mayor for as long as he likes.

    😭😭😭

    As a non-Londoner, this doesn't bother me particularly. Indeed, I'd be happier if the previous London Mayor had stayed on much longer :wink:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    I probably am although my thoughts go back to 2018/19 when this site felt that it was 60% Tory. It does not feel anything like that at the moment.
    Tory vote share at the GE wasn't 60%.

    I think there's an enthusiasm effect. Anti-Tory, particularly anti-Boris, posters are currently more enthused to engage in discussion/polemic. We've seen this swing on here several times.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Selebian said:

    As a non-Londoner, this doesn't bother me particularly. Indeed, I'd be happier if the previous London Mayor had stayed on much longer :wink:
    You should care.
    Sadiq is effectively a do-nothing, apart from some occasional, ineffective value-signaling.

    London (and thereby the U.K. taxpayer) is missing out on economic opportunities due to his seeming complete lack of interest in actually leading a global metropolis.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    Obviously I don’t like Boris.

    But the thing that struck me about yesterday’s coverage was the rather cold-eyed contempt.

    It felt like a new tone, and it was wide-spread.

    Can you clarify what you mean by "widespread".

    Was this among your acquaintances in general? In the mass media? Twitter? Down at the Dog & Duck?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    I probably am although my thoughts go back to 2018/19 when this site felt that it was 60% Tory. It does not feel anything like that at the moment.
    Remember the Tory posters are split between those that hate Boris and those that are loyal and my gut feel is those that hate Boris are a majority so it is easy to misread them as not Tories.

    The only party that is over represented and consistently so (compared to the general population) in my opinion are the LDs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817

    As part of an anti-sexual harassment campaign, TfL have unveiled posters warning people against STARING inappropriately.

    I saw on on the commute this morning.

    Ridiculous.

    Disagree with you there, GW. It's talking about men who go to town with the leering at women on public transport. Not the routine 'eying-up' but the full-on intimidating sexual stare. That's harassment, really, and it does happen. It's not so rare. This is to make those who make a habit of it think twice. My reaction to the poster was if anything surprise that I hadn't seen it mentioned before.
  • Best prices - Next independence referendum

    Yes EVS
    No 13/9

    Fill yer jackboots, HYUFD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021

    Tory vote share at the GE wasn't 60%.

    I think there's an enthusiasm effect. Anti-Tory, particularly anti-Boris, posters are currently more enthused to engage in discussion/polemic. We've seen this swing on here several times.
    However I would doubt even 43% of PB posters voted for Boris' Tories in 2019, less than the UK average.

    By contrast I am pretty sure at least 36% of PB posters voted for Cameron's Tories in 2015, at least matching the UK average if not more.

    This site is more anti Boris than anti Conservative as such
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Can you clarify what you mean by "widespread".

    Was this among your acquaintances in general? In the mass media? Twitter? Down at the Dog & Duck?
    BBC, Mail, Times, Guardian, and various right and left wing voices on Twitter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    HYUFD said:

    However I would doubt even 43% of PB posters voted for Boris' Tories in 2019, less than the UK average.

    By contrast I am pretty sure at least 36% of PB posters voted for Cameron's Tories in 2015, at least matching the UK average if not more.

    This site is more anti Boris than anti Conservative as such
    It could be quite some time post-Boris before any/many of those are tempted back.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,325
    kamski said:

    No need to hope: WHO Europe region includes Russia, the Stans, Caucasia.
    https://www.euro.who.int/en/countries
    (it also includes the UK...)

    Google population doesn't include all the Stans, so the population will be around 800 million?
    I have no idea if it's overly pessimistic. But just looking at Germany. So far 100k deaths. There are over 3 million unvaccinated over 60s - most of them don't have immunity from prior infection. There could easily be 100k more deaths in this group over winter. I wouldn't be surprised if the death toll in Germany doubles, or worse.

    The vaccinated won't put up with another lockdown (eg schools closed) imposed on us by the unvaccinated filling up intensive care, so I expect 2g rules to become standard everywhere soon.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107

    Fill yer jackboots, HYUFD.
    A problem for a future PM Starmer who grants an indyref2 to worry about but still pretty neck and neck even with Boris as PM.

    As long as we Tories remain in power, we will never allow an indyref2 anyway
  • kjh said:

    Remember the Tory posters are split between those that hate Boris and those that are loyal and my gut feel is those that hate Boris are a majority so it is easy to misread them as not Tories.

    The only party that is over represented and consistently so (compared to the general population) in my opinion are the LDs.
    You would actually have to define what you mean by 'Tory' these days which isn't the easiest thing, That runs from old-school tory to liberals to Thatcherite to Cameronite to people supporting Boris.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951

    You should care.
    Sadiq is effectively a do-nothing, apart from some occasional, ineffective value-signaling.

    London (and thereby the U.K. taxpayer) is missing out on economic opportunities due to his seeming complete lack of interest in actually leading a global metropolis.
    He's also not doing anything to defend the interests and importance of London for central government. Look at Andy Burnham by contrast. Now, I know sceptics in the North will say London gets more than enough attention already (oh and is a "dump" too) but that should surely be a big part of the role of the Mayor, to argue the case for investment in London in a world where everything is about "levelling up".

  • Johnson tells Cabinet that some people will have to sell home to pay for care - Guardian blog
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    kinabalu said:

    Disagree with you there, GW. It's talking about men who go to town with the leering at women on public transport. Not the routine 'eying-up' but the full-on intimidating sexual stare. That's harassment, really, and it does happen. It's not so rare. This is to make those who make a habit of it think twice. My reaction to the poster was if anything surprise that I hadn't seen it mentioned before.
    I don’t think it’s in the same category as other forms of harassment, because it’s somewhat subjective and completely unenforceable.

    The campaign also encourages you to report suspicious staring to the authorities.

    TfL has always had a weird, authoritarian style…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021

    Johnson tells Cabinet that some people will have to sell home to pay for care - Guardian blog

    Before the reforms everyone who owned a home would have to sell their home to pay for residential care costs, now most will not.

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    You should care.
    Sadiq is effectively a do-nothing, apart from some occasional, ineffective value-signaling.

    London (and thereby the U.K. taxpayer) is missing out on economic opportunities due to his seeming complete lack of interest in actually leading a global metropolis.
    Possibly, you underestimate the capacity of an adoptive northerner to cut off his economic growth generating nose to spite his southern face.

    But, more likely, you overestimate the seriousness of my original comment.

    Limited terms would seem to make sense, though - at least limited contiguous terms so that someone else with some new ideas (or indeed, any ideas) gets a go.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited November 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Betting odds are a reliable guide as to what's going to happen in an election?

    It's a theory, I suppose.

    Livingstone was widely seen as over the hill and beginning to go loopy, and the anti-semitic stuff was beginning to surface. I'm not misremembering the only time in my life I've given any sort of preference in the ballot box to a Tory, and that wouldn't have happened had Livingstone been credible for re-election; Ken had been my second preference on both of his previous runs.
    "If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset" - Mike Smithson, 2 January 2008.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I’ve just realised there is no term limit on the London mayoralty and that effectively Sadiq is mayor for as long as he likes.

    😭😭😭

    Nah, if the Tories put up a good candidate they can win. Shaun Bailey showed it was possible to beat Sadiq and he was pretty rubbish.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    kinabalu said:

    Disagree with you there, GW. It's talking about men who go to town with the leering at women on public transport. Not the routine 'eying-up' but the full-on intimidating sexual stare. That's harassment, really, and it does happen. It's not so rare. This is to make those who make a habit of it think twice. My reaction to the poster was if anything surprise that I hadn't seen it mentioned before.
    I once got in mild trouble with that - a girl on the Tube had a T-shirt with a slogan on it, not in especially large letters. I'm short-sighted so I absent-mindedly looked a bit closer to read it, and got an accusing glare. I immediately realised why I was being glared at, but saying "Sorry, I was only trying to read your slogan" seemed, while true, to make it even worse, so I hastily looked away. I now consciously avoid peering at T-shirt slogans...

    A bit like those bumper stickers which say "If you can read this, you're too close".
  • kinabalu said:

    Disagree with you there, GW. It's talking about men who go to town with the leering at women on public transport. Not the routine 'eying-up' but the full-on intimidating sexual stare. That's harassment, really, and it does happen. It's not so rare. This is to make those who make a habit of it think twice. My reaction to the poster was if anything surprise that I hadn't seen it mentioned before.
    But as I said that is unenforceable. It is akin to the old Not the Nine O'clock news 'Savage' sketch. Arresting people for 'looking at me in a funny way'. I agree it is a problem and I agree it would be great to dissuade it but practically you are putting laws in place that are, at best, never going to be enforceable (if you need hard evidence) and at worst a charter for anyone who wants to complain about perfectly innocent people (if all you need is the word of the supposed victim).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163

    BBC, Mail, Times, Guardian, and various right and left wing voices on Twitter.
    I think that's an important change, as having many such people play along with the act for so long has been helpful to Johnson.

    If the change sticks then it will be an interesting test of how important that remains in a social media world.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    UK government recommends taking a lateral flow test before going to crowded public spaces or visiting vulnerable people
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59384577
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    IanB2 said:

    Betting odds are a reliable guide as to what's going to happen in an election?

    It's a theory, I suppose.

    Livingstone was widely seen as over the hill and beginning to go loopy, and the anti-semitic stuff was beginning to surface. I'm not misremembering the only time in my life I've given any sort of preference in the ballot box to a Tory, and that wouldn't have happened had Livingstone been credible for re-election; Ken had been my second preference on both of his previous runs.
    So you voted directly and personally for Boris Johnson, assuming your first was for the LibDem?
  • HYUFD said:

    A problem for a future PM Starmer who grants an indyref2 to worry about but still pretty neck and neck even with Boris as PM.

    As long as we Tories remain in power, we will never allow an indyref2 anyway
    Thank you for the clarification. Your opinion had previously been unclear.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,817

    Basically that every week is judged just on the that week, and that being star baker more than once is no guarantee of reaching the final. It was pretty obvious he was referring to Jurgen.
    Ah ok. Well they certainly proved that with the Jurgen elimination. I didn't like it though. He deserved to make the final and on top of that he's a very nice guy. Ok, German, but not a trace of 'wanting to dominate Europe with an undervalued currency' as far as I could detect. Still, I won't let it spoil tonight for me. Roll on 8 o'clock!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    MaxPB said:

    Nah, if the Tories put up a good candidate they can win. Shaun Bailey showed it was possible to beat Sadiq and he was pretty rubbish.
    This is the list of Conservative MPs representing London constituencies. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Conservative_Party_MPs_in_London

    Do you see any likely candidates there, or do you think the Tories will have to find someone else?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    My daughter’s school is recommending a daily LFT for the students until the end of term.

    There does seem to be a new, slightly raised, anxiety abroad.
  • HYUFD said:

    UK government recommends taking a lateral flow test before going to crowded public spaces or visiting vulnerable people
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59384577

    Why has it taken them that long to give this guidance? Common sense, everyone should do this.
  • You would actually have to define what you mean by 'Tory' these days which isn't the easiest thing, That runs from old-school tory to liberals to Thatcherite to Cameronite to people supporting Boris.
    The modern iteration of the Tory party:

    - English Nationalist, not One Nation
    - Revolutionary, not Conservative
    - High tax/high debt, not Friedman
    - State control, not free market
    - Social engineering, not conservatism
    - Nasty, not paternal
    - Reactive, not confident
    - Populist, not principled
    - Clown, not competence
    - Degenerate, not moral
    - Cash for pals, not good governance
    - Fiscal spaffing, not fiscal moderation
    - Fuck business, not pro business
    - Proroguing parliament, not the rule of law
    - Lying to the monarch, not respecting institutions
    - Authoritarian, not liberal
    - Corruption, not ethics
    - Second jobs, not public service
    - Serving clients, not constituents
    - Peppa Pig, not promoting productivity

    The only constant is the blue rosettes, greed and jingoism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021
    The Pope has praised Sir David Amess for years of "devoted public service" in a message read at his requiem mass at Westminster Cathedral (which also saw Starmer deep in conversation with Priti Patel?)

    All living former Conservative PMs plus Boris were in attendance too
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59386018
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    This is the list of Conservative MPs representing London constituencies. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Conservative_Party_MPs_in_London

    Do you see any likely candidates there, or do you think the Tories will have to find someone else?
    I think it would need to be an outsider with a big personality.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited November 2021
    JohnO said:

    So you voted directly and personally for Boris Johnson, assuming your first was for the LibDem?
    I (think) I voted for Boris twice.

    Ken was looking quite crooked by the end of his second term, and Boris felt part of the modernising, Primrose Hill breed of Tory.

    I can’t remember Boris’s first campaign, but the campaign against him was quite pathetic, effectively just saying he was too racist for London.

    Boris’s first term seemed quite good. He got rid of Ken’s deranged bendy buses, and brought back the Routemaster.

    Even the garden bridge is not a bad idea unto itself, it’s just that Boris didn’t look into the detail before spending tens of millions of pounds on it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not his employees, not their boss.

    Do you vote to select who employs you, or have the option of no confidencing them out?
    I vote with an electorate of 1 sure.
    HYUFD said:


    Votes for pro independence parties in May 2021 ie SNP and Greens and Alba 49% on the constituency vote and 50.12% on the list.

    Votes for Unionist parties in May 2021 ie Conservative and Labour and LD and All for Unity and Abolish the Scottish Parl, RefUK and UKIP 50.42% on the constituency vote and 47.94% on the list, so as I said about equally divided.

    Therefore Boris can and will refuse indyref2 as long as he stays in power
    Cool its this post again
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I (think) I voted for Boris twice.

    Ken was looking quite crooked by the end of his second term, and Boris felt part of the modernising, Primrose Hill breed of Tory.

    I can’t remember Boris’s first campaign, but the campaign against him was quite pathetic, effectively just saying he was too racist for London.

    Boris’s first term seemed quite good. He got rid of Ken’s deranged bendy buses, and brought back the Routemaster.

    Even the garden bridge is not a bad idea unto itself, it’s just that Boris didn’t look into the detail before spending tens of millions of pounds on it.
    Oh god the bendy buses. They were so awful.
  • Johnson tells Cabinet that some people will have to sell home to pay for care - Guardian blog

    Johnson caught telling the truth.

    How novel.
  • If the Pfizer vaccine is less durable, it might explain why countries with apparently similar levels of vaccination to the UK - but with Pfizer the predominant jab - are now experiencing higher levels of hospitalisation and deaths. The seemingly better T-cell response that comes from the AstraZeneca vaccine may mean it gives longer protection, despite an apparently inferior initial antibody response.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/23/astrazeneca-lost-vaccine-battle-europe-us-now-winning-war/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    "If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset" - Mike Smithson, 2 January 2008.
    I see the misunderstanding. I am talking 2012 - the last Boris v Ken match
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    Shadow NI Secretary says a Labour government would remain neutral in any future border poll in NI.

    Bang goes Starmer's chances of DUP support in a hung parliament then

    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1463129064420651011?s=20
  • HYUFD said:

    There will always be a hard core of a a third of Scots who are diehard nationalists, however a No win in an indyref2 or a Unionist FM again would mean the average Scot had firmly moved on from the idea and accepted the Union is staying. Probably with devomax too
    To get a No win in an Indyref2, first you need an Indyref2.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,363

    If the Pfizer vaccine is less durable, it might explain why countries with apparently similar levels of vaccination to the UK - but with Pfizer the predominant jab - are now experiencing higher levels of hospitalisation and deaths. The seemingly better T-cell response that comes from the AstraZeneca vaccine may mean it gives longer protection, despite an apparently inferior initial antibody response.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/23/astrazeneca-lost-vaccine-battle-europe-us-now-winning-war/

    Paging Monsieur Macron.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    HYUFD said:

    Shadow NI Secretary says a Labour government would remain neutral in any future border poll in NI.

    Bang goes Starmer's chances of DUP support in a hung parliament then

    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1463129064420651011?s=20

    Once again you don't have a f***ing clue about what you are talking about.

    The criteria for a border poll is set out in detail and the DUP get no real say.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021

    To get a No win in an Indyref2, first you need an Indyref2.
    You also probably need a Labour PM to make a No most likely again now, hence Boris is also refusing indyref2 as the best chance of saving the Union until we ever get a Labour PM again
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited November 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Oh god the bendy buses. They were so awful.
    They were really, really bad, and probably responsible for a couple of percentage points off Livingstone’s tally.

    Incidentally the revived Routemaster shows one of Boris’s strengths.

    A dispassionate bureaucrat would have told you that it was impossible to revive the Routemaster, and that no other city on Earth had any call for that apparently irrational form factor.

    Boris went and found a manufacturer and got them made. They work well, in my opinion, and jolly up the cityscape (even if you can’t, contra promise, jump on the back mid-transit, like you could the old ones).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,107
    edited November 2021
    eek said:

    Once again you don't have a f***ing clue about what you are talking about.

    The criteria for a border poll is set out in detail and the DUP get no real say.
    The DUP could get a say in who the UK government is though if we get a 2017 style result again next time, possible on current polls.

    They will not support a UK government not committed to back the Union even if the GFA criteria for a border poll are met
  • Why has it taken them that long to give this guidance? Common sense, everyone should do this.
    The government really really wish Covid Was Beaten, for all sorts of reasons.

    And wanting something to be true makes it so, doesn't it?
This discussion has been closed.