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Today’s Times main leader won’t go down well at Number 10 – politicalbetting.com
Today’s Times main leader won’t go down well at Number 10 – politicalbetting.com
In its main leader the Times notes that at the CBI conference “Anxious business leaders deserved a serious speech for serious times.” It goes on:
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There are of course exceptions, but the general default attitude in most workplaces is to do the absolute bare minimum you can get away with, and even then only when you are directly instructed to do it. Initiative-taking and creative thought is frowned-upon as it disrupts the hierarchy.
No hierarchy = no England, so I’m not sure where you guys go from here.
Meanwhile, I see that Frost is also showing signs today of trying to revive the Britannia Unchained agenda , giving signals about a low-tax and low-regulation environment "away from EU rules." The only real mileage this would seem to have would be as a distraction, and the prelude to the now annual and useful christmas dust-up with the EU, because the long-term consequences of the Singapore are now in total conflict with the government's Red Tory rhetoric on spending, wages, equality and much else.
Worth repeating. I cant remember such an inept embarrassment for a Prime Minister in my lifetime. Thatcher was loathed by large sections of the population and more widely by our partners in Europe for her perceived bullying and nastiness. It lingered in the Tory Party for several years after she left.
Cameron and others expended a huge amount of energy and no small amount of skill repairing the brand which they more or less succeeded in doing.
Johnson's successors are going to face a similar task. He is at a rate of knots losing the brands identity as a competent and pragmatic party. Holding the 'Red Wall' is an ephemeral insignificance. The equivalent of Thatcher having the support of the new council house owners. They'll be off as soon it dawns on them that his brand of comedic stupidity might not be in their interests and has consequences.
Starmer's job is getting easier by the day. He's also a bright man and he's getting better at it. It's easy to see Johnson's edifice crumbling quite quickly now and with the transitory nature of the Red Wall I'd be surprised if replacing him will do the trick.
It'll just leave the BJO's floundering around looking for a home that doesn't exist.
While the headlines in the Tory-supporting press indicate 'alternatives' the most clicked-on BBC page is That Speech.
Politicians, like comedians, can be laughed with, or at. Laughed with = popularity; laughed at = contempt!
I am beginning to think Johnson will be forced out by his MPs. The reason is very simple. He's clearly not up to the job.
Without Brexit and covid, Johnson would probably have been able to wing it for two terms.
These are serious times with serious issues which require a serious leader. Johnson lacks the capacity to be Prime Minister in such times as these.
That’s not just an issue of SKS, it’s the whole Labour brand. To many, including a lot of its former voters, it’s toxic, standing for a lot of the sh1t you see in the US at the moment around cultural issues. No one thinks plenty on the Labour side would not try and import what is happening in the States at the moment into the U.K. and SKS would be too weak to stop them.
The biggest threat to BJ will come from the inside but I don’t think it will be the Cabinet, it will come from the newly elected MPs who may look to replace him with one of their own.
Thought the next PMQ's, especially if Starmer stays calm and 'legal professional' and the PM loses it again, could be very wounding.
You might not like him and think him a very poor administrator, you might think he’s almost out of political road. But its churlish to belittle his past electoral achievements. Which is precisely why the Tory knifers might be more hesitant than many assume.
In hindsight it's easy to see the sequence of a fall like 'Poll tax, Howe, bad leadership campaign, ruthless cabinet'. It's obviously far less clear at the time but perhaps we'll see this one as 'Paterson, HS2, Peppa Pig, Care Act and one other final thing'.
He's a terrible manager and useless at paperwork, as he has proven many times over the years at the Spectator, in London and at the FO.
Senior members of his own party said they needed Johnson to get the government back on track after a disastrous two weeks amid dismay about his performance at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference, where he lost his place in his speech for about 20 seconds and diverted into a lengthy tangent about Peppa Pig.
Nervousness among Tory MPs about No 10 intensified after one Downing Street source told the BBC there was “a lot of concern inside the building about the PM … it’s just not working”, adding that the “cabinet needs to wake up and demand serious changes otherwise it’ll keep getting worse”. Another senior backbencher said Johnson’s CBI speech had been a “mess” while a third Tory MP said: “I thought today’s performance was the most embarrassing by a Conservative prime minister since last week’s PMQs. Someone needs to get a grip. He is losing the confidence of the party.” Another Tory MP referenced the process by which MPs can submit letters of no confidence to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, saying: “It might not only be Father Christmas’ postbag filling up towards the end of the year – Sir Graham Brady could find he needs a bigger one too.”
This isn't revisionism.
Wasn't it 1989 that Maggie saw off the stalking donkey without breaking stride? And a year later, she was gone.
BoJo will fail and be shrunken, because that's the nature of the job. The only question is when. And that's what's hard to work out.
If I were an ambitious Conservative, I'd not want to take over yet, because of the grim two years incoming. Falling living standards do cut through. But if BoJo keeps being this visibly terrible, I might have to replan, before he crashes the party brand with me in tow.
This does feel a bit like Johnson's P45 Theresa May moment. When a sufficient number of people twig that their leader isn't fit for purpose.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/22/boris-johnson-makes-pig-ear-winning-the-cbi-back-over
That Labour became toxic is indisputable. Some of that was to do with Brexit especially in the Red Wall seats. The Remainer Parliament cost Labour dearly.
However, a lot of it was also down to the vile left-wing nature of Corbyn's unelectable rabble. SKS has done a very good job of steadily rebuilding the brand, showing that he can root out the anti-semites and place Labour back in the centre ground.
Have Labour moved sufficiently far and fast? I don't know. But I do know that it's inaccurate to state that they "never been able to break much above 35%". In the last 6 opinion polls Labour has polled:
37
39
37
37
40
The only one that had them at 34% also had the Conservatives on 36% and the Greens on 10%.
I grant you that this is still a far cry from Tony Blair landslide territory but just as the tories are undeniably and indisputably now falling, so Labour is slowly but surely rising.
Remember too that Labour have more coalition routes to power than the tories, who only have the DUP that Johnson shafted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://twitter.com/connal99/status/1462786788200792064?s=21
But he's never been much cop at giving speeches and he's useless at making it up as he goes along. Most of his words are ... er ... er and he never finishes sentences.
He's been lucky in his enemies, and if Labour could find someone like Blair again, Boris would disappear fast. But they keep picking quota people. Very worthy at best, but Aunt Sallys for any competent politician to knock over.
Mr. Jonathan, if we assume you're correct, that does then raise the problem of what's beneath the veneer. Which may not necessarily be to the PM's advantage.
I don't believe that Johnson has the grasp of detail to make his own breakfast, let alone to gut HS2 and NPR in favour of a hodgepodge of upgrades, neither does he do the sums on Social Care. These are policies coming from elsewhere in this chaotic and unruly government. Not only are the policies poorly thought out, but also being pushed through without proper debate and party management.
Johnson is a figurehead of blithering idiocy, but he sits on top of a government of arrogance, sleaze and incoherence. It is not just that he is Ratnering the brand as per @Roger but that the government itself is rotten.
For me this is not about trying to ramp Labour - it would have the opposite effect.
As I posted last night this is about people looking at this absurd shambles - which they would scream in rage about were it Ed Milliband or Gordon Brown or God help us Jeremy Corbyn - and saying its alright.
That the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom going to the UN General Assembly, throwing a speech together on the train up there and talking about Kermit the Frog's mistreatment of Miss Piggy is alright. That the same Prime Minister going to the CBI to make vroom vroom noises and hands up who's been to Peppa Pig World is alright.
Whether it cuts through or not isn't front of mind. Its appalling. Embarrassing. Wrong. Those of us who are paying attention and care about politics - increasingly of all parties - know how profoundly damaging He is.
So frankly I don't care for the argument that "you're all lusting after his downfall" and "the polls still give him a narrow lead". There can be no defence. No justification. No succour. For Kermit the Frog at the UN and vroom vroom Peppa Pig World at the CBI. For all our sakes it has to stop.
It would be 'interesting' if, for some good reason, Madam Deputy Speaker had to take PMQ's. Johnson isn't good when opposed by a feisty woman.
The government is giving a sense of drift at the moment and this is being seized upon by a hostile media who will never forgive Brexit. Yesterday morning's coverage of the changes to Social Care on the Today program were so ridiculously partisan as to be almost incoherent but the Minister sent out to battle made few good or obvious points.
If we take a couple of steps back you find that vaccine boosters are going really well with over 25% of the population over 12 already covered including all of the most vulnerable groups; we find that this country is avoiding both lockdowns and most NPIs whilst much of Europe struggles with yet another wave; we find that next month the economy is very likely to return to its pre-Covid size; we find, for all the rather unnecessary grief and opprobrium that it brought on itself for what is likely to be loose change in the overall scheme of things, we have the largest commitment to rail outside London ever; we have full employment; we have rising wages; we have a government with a comfortable majority able to deliver on its program.
And yet...the hysteria and resentment takes its toll. Boris needs to be showing some form of grip not acting the clown with an important audience still smarting from the infamous F*** business. He needs to be a bit more careful.
https://reaction.life/jeremy-vine-my-boris-story/
Looks like his true issue is the forrin who keep coming in from Europe on boats. Which is the unsolvable problem currently thanks to government cuts and general incompetence.
Various ideas about rendering migrants offshore - you'd have to detain them first. And currently these dinghys are largely making it across unimpeded for the people to run off into the countryside. Some may be here to claim asylum, others to a job in the black economy, a small number may be here with darker intentions.
Unless we can detain them when they land we can't deport them. Same with any other "just drown them" options involving tow-backs. We do not have the resources to patrol that length of coast 247. We could have, but Priti the Vampire won't put the money into the Home Office.
The Nigel is brilliant at being the siren voice that the Gillian Duffy mindset pay attention to. Combine that with the growing abuse being hurled by Red Wall Tories at their own supporters and I can see REFUK coming back at them.
For all that HYUFD will channel Ian Paisley and bellow NO NO NO, remember that REFUK are very effective at stopping the Tories winning seats...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/22/johnson-losing-the-confidence-of-tory-party-after-rambling-cbi-speech
It's interesting that other commentators blamed yesterday on BoZo being too busy
There is no contradiction.
BoZo attended 3 events yesterday, but didn't prepare properly for any of them.
He is doing too much, and too lazy to do any of it well.
Mr Assumption made an assumption.
Morning all.
I agree for the Tories BJ needs to be kicked out. I am unclear that there is enough time left to repair the damage. Though it depends heavily on the next 6 months of Covid, and how the economy goes.
With regards to "ridiculously partisan as to be almost incoherent" can I offer a mirror? Your last paragraph isn't strictly impartial or even true. There is no "largest commitment to rail outside London ever" as most of the IRP was not costed or approved. Go read the document and underline all the times that the "commitment" is subject to a business case and then treasury approval.
As for the care bill itself, the anger is from people who can add. Up north English red wall voters will lose pretty much their entire assets with this proposal. Down south people will keep substantial amounts of their assets.
This inherent unfairness is just maths and comparing one to the other. It isn't partisan, and so many of the people complaining loudest are Tory MPs...
Whilst that and the affectation make him doubly unfit for office, the act will still get support. Trump still gets support after an insurrection and advocating injecting bleach, Boris will be supported after PigGate and other nonsense.
And my argument remains. Just because some wazzock cheers on the national leader doing stupid things that make the country an international embarrassment, is that reason to support the leader for those of us with a brain?
Dilnot acknowledged it was a substantial improvement on what we have now and that the system will be substantially better funded. His argument is that money paid by the taxpayer, not the recipient, should be set against the £86k on the basis that this will allow those of more moderate means to leave more. I do not accept that bolstering inheritances is a proper use of money taken from those currently earning. Indeed, I have reservations as to whether the government has already gone too far down that road, especially for those better off.
So the argument of the BBC amounts to 3 propositions:
(1) putting a cap on what everyone pays is somehow unfair.
(2) increasing inheritances is somehow more important than funding health care, social care and other public services.
(3) current wage earners should fund this largesse.
Its just absurd.
Sure there are disgruntled Corbynites, but they are clearly marginal figures and indeed useful as a foil. The more that the @bigjohnowls of this world rant about SKS the more obvious it is that the Trots and anti-semites have been eclipsed by genuine change.
I cannot see SKS being deposed before the next election, though six months ago I thought that likely. I am even beginning to think that there is value on him as next PM, albeit atop an unstable minority government. I think too that he could manage that government competently. He is stiff and wooden, but that may not be a fatal flaw. It wasn't for Attlee.
If you’re just getting going, here’s 4 mins on what happened when Boris Johnson spoke to the CBI on Monday. The speech featured some unusual moments. Thanks to everyone who’s already shared this.
https://twitter.com/BBCRosAtkins/status/1463052289636278276?s=20
She resigned after months of unsustainable pressure but also after leading the Conservative Party to coming in fifth and getting 8.8% in a national election.
Instead of telling his audience "I'm sorry, I've lost my place", his instinct was to instead say "forgive me".
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/social-care-costs-boris-johnson-self-inflicted-wound-1313229
Red wall voters aren't stupid.
A couple of days before, BJ should read whatever the communications office wrote for his speech, make a few annotations, and then it goes back.
And that's it,
And even if BJ is too busy or lazy to do either part one, or part two, the speech should still be written according to the schedule because he has a good Chief of Staff that knows that speeches have to be ready to deliver.
That this did not happen suggests that the internal workings of Number 10 are not as we would expect. Why is that?
Boris didn't get to the top that way. He has an after dinner turn, which wears thing with repeat performances to a sober audience. And reams of columns, which don't seem to help in the same way.
He's the bright lazy kid who coasted through school and has gone to Uni and got found out.
There are two further flaws. The £86 000 cap doesn't include "hotel costs" of around £1000 per calender month, nor does any costs before October 2023, so not even will even the biggest estates benefit before autumn 2025, well after the next election.
" He quickly name checked several cars he had road tested before making engine noises. Vroooom vrooom raaaagh raaagh. Or something like that. He looked up, desperate for some laughs. None came. Driving under the influence clearly isn’t that funny."
"BoZo is a clown, unfit for office..."
"There is growing unease amongst Conservative MPs across the party that Boris Johnson is losing his grip"
"What Boris Johnson seems to be doing at the moment is alienating all factions within the Conservative party"
"Conservative MPs are using some pretty strong language"
What has changed is peoples' willingness to say it
The CBI conference isn't quite what it was. But the PM's keynote speech remains an important, widely covered event, and a measure of whether business leaders retain confidence in the Government's economic plan and PM's grasp over it.
Why wasn't it the only item in the grid, with a day of focus on the economy, supported by the Chancellor, Business Secretary etc?
It seems to me that it's set on a frenetic, campaign mode. That works a week before a General Election when you're trying to spin a lot of plates and people forgive you if you drop a couple. It just looks chaotic at this point - what is your big theme for the day, and how does it convey a drum beat in the media of a Government with direction, purpose, and ability?
Aside from the vroom noise and hand up for Peppa Pig (which is American btw), and the already parodied "forgive me" shuffling, the rest of the speech wasn't much better. Disjointed, read much too fast, not flowing. He was winging it at the Peppa Pig section as well, flipping pages as he started speaking.
Will Bozza want to admit that someone else can write better than him?
For all the whining and bleating by the government on the subject, its is their own basic failure of law and order which is self-evident. We can't catch them because the Navy has been cut, the coast guard has been cut, the Border Force has been cut and the police has been cut.
Do you vote to select who employs you, or have the option of no confidencing them out?
Covid spread is all about R. And the more time people spend inside in close proximity to other people, then the more opportunities there are for spread.
It's about to get *very* cold and the Christmas party season is about to kick off... and families will be getting together (across the age spectrum). People are desperate to have a good time and for a full return to normality - and it doesn't take much for R to move from 1.0 (things are fine) to 1.2 or 1.3 (and things suddenly don't look fine). We're fortunate that we've done the boosters thing, and that it has absolutely run through school kids... but I am still concerned that we might see cases (and hospitalisations) spike.
Professional speech writers are expert at getting peoples' "voice" right. Now, will it sound quite the same as a BJ original? Nope. But that doesn't matter. Remember Trump was quite happy to do canned speeches on occasion. BJ would be wise to repeat that performance.
As I mentioned on Sunday the ECML improvements identify a 20 minute speed increase from Darlington / Northallerton to London.
Back in 2017 Network rail identified that when the track is increased to 140 mph, the total time saved will be 5 minutes (that's why spending £xbn doing so was instantly rejected then)
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1463061819417899008
Yesterday
Daddy Pigthe PM said it was rejected by the BBC (untrue, it was never offered to the BBC) and is pulling in £6bn and counting" for the country. I don't doubt that it has made money. And the production house will still be paid. But since 2019 when it was sold to Hasbro all the cash is going to America.As usual with great British ideas, we sell it abroad to make cash now whilst others rake it in long term.
Now they are laughing at him.
Of course, the Daily Star was ahead of the game.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasbro
ETA what @RochdalePioneers said more eloquently than me (and he types faster!).
And as for the 'ridiculously partisan' Today program, I note they are still quoting without question the equally ridiculous '£92bn being spent on northern rail infrastructure.'
The direct opposite of levelling up.
https://youtu.be/RSfLmhdHRoU?t=26
Two longtime conservative Fox News commentators have resigned in protest of what they call a pattern of incendiary and fabricated claims by the network's opinion hosts in support of former President Donald Trump.
In separate interviews with NPR, Stephen Hayes and Jonah Goldberg pointed to a breaking point this month: network star Tucker Carlson's three-part series on the Jan. 6 siege of the U.S. Capitol, which relied on fabrications and conspiracy theories to exonerate the Trump supporters who participated in the attack.
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/21/1052837157/fox-resignations-tucker-carlson-patriot-purge-documentary