politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than i
Comments
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Andrew Pierce @toryboypierce
. The BBC should stop saying that US journaist James Foley was executed. He wasn't. He was butchered to death by a barbaricthug
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Scott, you are a blot on the landscape never mind a scar, mealy mouthed unionist whinging after we see the papers this morning with England threatening us within an inch of our lives if we dare to vote to be free seem to suggest you are even thicker than I thought..Scott_P said:
The entire Yes machine regards No voters as less than ScottishCarlottaVance said:
Do you really hold such a low opinion of over half your compatriots?
The scars the separatists have inflicted on the country will take generations to heal.0 -
I hope Lord Ashcroft takes a look at the likes of Loughborough and Ealing Central & Acton in future marginal polling. We need to be able to look deeper into Conservative territory to see how far the red tide will rise.
And for a bit of fun, why not take a look at the seats held by all of the LibDem cabinet ministers?0 -
As opposed to Michael white of the guardian who thinks they are students on a gap year that will grow out of itMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, indeed, that was probably a slip of a tongue. I hope so, otherwise he's a bloody fool.
Clever line by Farage.0 -
Personally I'm ignoring polling until after the holiday season, the referendum and the party conferences. Late October onwards sounds about right to me. Unlike 1997 or 2010 I sense no overriding sense among the public that it's time for a change and I expect the vote of both government parties to firm up a bit as the year draws to a close.0
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No thanks, my grandfather knew him very well and regarded him as a self-opinionate arse with an overly-inflated view of his own intellectual capabilities.isam said:
If you can be bothered, and can read without prejudice, have a look at Enoch Powell's Birmingham speech of 1968 and "The Road To National Suicide" from 1977DavidL said:I fundamentally disagree with the archbishop. The question is do we fight militant Islam by reverting to their standards and savagery or do we fight them by adhering to our own?
I vote the latter.
It is why I am extremely intolerant of us tolerating different cultures in this country which are not consistent with our own values. If Islamic people want to come and live in this country fine. But their women will be respected and have rights. They will dress as they want, go where they want and speak to who they want (I could get more graphic here).
If that is unacceptable to the Islamic community they have the choice. Go and live with the savages or stay here and accept our principles are better.
We are at risk because we have compromised our values. We must stop this although turning the clock back is always more difficult.
He foresaw what is happening now a long time ago. He knew it was a controversial thing to say openly, but thought it was for the greater good that he did.
He also said "Of all silly sayings, one of the silliest is 'you cant turn the clock back'. Of course you can turn the clock back and we often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, we turn it back"
That's good enough for me!
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i.e one written by people with the same political agenda as you.bigjohnowls said:Good report IMO
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@taffys
If you know they were members of IS, removing citizenship only leaves you with stateless terrorists who will acquire new identities.
Lock them up and throw away the keys, would be a more effective solution to my mind.
If the new "Caliphate" falls, there might not be that many in the land of the living to lock up, as the people of the region are not liable to be taking many prisoners, and those that die in battle will be the lucky ones.0 -
My gap yah was, like, amazing. Really found myself, you know what I mean. Took me an absolute age to get the blood out of my Harvey Nick's djelleba though.isam said:
As opposed to Michael white of the guardian who thinks they are students on a gap year that will grow out of itMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, indeed, that was probably a slip of a tongue. I hope so, otherwise he's a bloody fool.
Clever line by Farage.0 -
Incidentally, procrastinating mildly and checked some of Michael White's tweets. He actually said:
"Several Tweeters illustrate pitfall I was warning against. Try thinking of most as daft kids - like shoplifters or vandals"
Hmm. I'd prefer to think of them as murderous rapists who crucify children and commit genocide, to be honest.
/twitter.com/MichaelWhite/status/501769164428566528
Maybe it's a spoof account. There isn't a blue tick [although not all those in the public eye have them].0 -
Evidence that Nigel does read PB...Pulpstar said:
Well the Islamic State is producing it's own passports. And the fact that they are prepared to go off, kill and be killed for IS shows to my mind that they think of themselves more as IS individuals rather than British.taffys said:Farage finally enters the fray. Finally.
UKIP calls for PM to strip UK ISIS fighters of their citizenship.
A decent call.
I suggested this at least half a thread ago
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Enoch was a little like Nostradamus. People remember his correct predictions, and fail to remember that he foresaw WW2 being followed by the British Empire having to turn on an even more dangerous enemy than Japan or Germany: the United States of America.Charles said:
No thanks, my grandfather knew him very well and regarded him as a self-opinionate arse with an overly-inflated view of his own intellectual capabilities.isam said:
If you can be bothered, and can read without prejudice, have a look at Enoch Powell's Birmingham speech of 1968 and "The Road To National Suicide" from 1977DavidL said:I fundamentally disagree with the archbishop. The question is do we fight militant Islam by reverting to their standards and savagery or do we fight them by adhering to our own?
I vote the latter.
It is why I am extremely intolerant of us tolerating different cultures in this country which are not consistent with our own values. If Islamic people want to come and live in this country fine. But their women will be respected and have rights. They will dress as they want, go where they want and speak to who they want (I could get more graphic here).
If that is unacceptable to the Islamic community they have the choice. Go and live with the savages or stay here and accept our principles are better.
We are at risk because we have compromised our values. We must stop this although turning the clock back is always more difficult.
He foresaw what is happening now a long time ago. He knew it was a controversial thing to say openly, but thought it was for the greater good that he did.
He also said "Of all silly sayings, one of the silliest is 'you cant turn the clock back'. Of course you can turn the clock back and we often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, we turn it back"
That's good enough for me!
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Mr. Charles, surely if he read the site he'd already have announced government funding for research into genetically engineered enormo-haddock, as well as a new, trebuchet- and space cannon-based approach to justice?0
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095549/Right-wingers-intelligent-left-wingers-says-controversial-study--conservative-politics-lead-people-racist.htmlFalseFlag said:
Labour does better in backward areas where they thrive on ignorance and desperation. Successful professionals are not the left's friends.currystar said:
The demographics of Southampton Itchen have changed massively since the last election. The area is full of posh waterside flats now, 11/4 is massive, the tories should be slightly odds on for this one.isam said:
Seldom wrong Shadsy? Cant be a bet thenTheScreamingEagles said:Tories to take Itchen 11/4 with Shadsy.
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I am sure he thought well of your grandfather who sounds like a lovely chap.Charles said:
No thanks, my grandfather knew him very well and regarded him as a self-opinionate arse with an overly-inflated view of his own intellectual capabilities.isam said:
If you can be bothered, and can read without prejudice, have a look at Enoch Powell's Birmingham speech of 1968 and "The Road To National Suicide" from 1977DavidL said:I fundamentally disagree with the archbishop. The question is do we fight militant Islam by reverting to their standards and savagery or do we fight them by adhering to our own?
I vote the latter.
It is why I am extremely intolerant of us tolerating different cultures in this country which are not consistent with our own values. If Islamic people want to come and live in this country fine. But their women will be respected and have rights. They will dress as they want, go where they want and speak to who they want (I could get more graphic here).
If that is unacceptable to the Islamic community they have the choice. Go and live with the savages or stay here and accept our principles are better.
We are at risk because we have compromised our values. We must stop this although turning the clock back is always more difficult.
He foresaw what is happening now a long time ago. He knew it was a controversial thing to say openly, but thought it was for the greater good that he did.
He also said "Of all silly sayings, one of the silliest is 'you cant turn the clock back'. Of course you can turn the clock back and we often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, we turn it back"
That's good enough for me!0 -
The labour proposals for dealing with IS will be interesting, given the desire to shore up the Asian muslim vote in the North and London
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Mr. M,
"The study, by academics at Brock University in Ontario, Canada, used information from two UK studies from 1958 and 1970 , where several thousand children were assessed for intelligence at age 10 and 11, and then asked political questions aged 33."
So, over 40 years old and doesn't actually consider the intelligence of the individuals when they're answering the political questions.
Also, 'innate' intelligence doesn't tally, because they were questioned at the tail end of primary school. So, they're halfway through the education system.0 -
Mr. Taffys, even more interesting than their approach towards Shabana Mahmood and her role shutting down a Sainsbury's because... um... Gaza?0
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"Self-employed make up two-thirds of new jobs, ONS says"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28866302
When is a job not a job? When you claim expenses for travelling to your normal place of work!0 -
It's a silly study and means nothing - a bit like the comment from FalseFlag under which I posted it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M,
"The study, by academics at Brock University in Ontario, Canada, used information from two UK studies from 1958 and 1970 , where several thousand children were assessed for intelligence at age 10 and 11, and then asked political questions aged 33."
So, over 40 years old and doesn't actually consider the intelligence of the individuals when they're answering the political questions.
Also, 'innate' intelligence doesn't tally, because they were questioned at the tail end of primary school. So, they're halfway through the education system.0 -
The prison population is already nearing 100,000 and the government wants to lock up even more people for minor infractions:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11043785/Bullying-husbands-face-jail-under-new-proposals-by-Theresa-May.html0 -
Telegraph News @TelegraphNews 1h
Dropping action against Lord Rennard will force women to leave Lib Dems in 'astounding' numbers, alleged victim warns http://fw.to/WDUUa6V
The hens are fleeing the coop.
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@Morris_Dancer
11 years old was deemed good enough to decide if children should go on to "senior secondaries," or be sent to a lower school to be trained as factory fodder, (or apprenticeships for the brighter cohort)0 -
Purely a fiddle to get people off the unemployment numbers, give them more benefits for being "self" employed.SandyRentool said:"Self-employed make up two-thirds of new jobs, ONS says"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28866302
When is a job not a job? When you claim expenses for travelling to your normal place of work!0 -
Mr. Smarmeron, the study claimed to look at innate intelligence. By 10-11 a child has almost (or actually) finished primary school and spent more of their lives in the education system than outside it. That's the point.0
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Chris Davies was fully behind Lord Rennard this morning on the radio.MikeK said:Telegraph News @TelegraphNews 1h
Dropping action against Lord Rennard will force women to leave Lib Dems in 'astounding' numbers, alleged victim warns http://fw.to/WDUUa6V
The hens are fleeing the coop.
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F1: bit surprised but Lotterer will replace Kobayashi for Spa:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28869449
One can only assume this deal is bank manager-pleasing.0 -
@Morris_Dancer
Sorry, I missed your point, should I vote Conservative this year?0 -
British jihadists the most dangerous
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11045318/British-jihadists-the-most-vicious-and-vociferous-fighters-in-Iraq-expert-warns.html0 -
Mr. Smarmeron, it's an unattractive quality to completely fail to engage in a debate and just go off on a tangent when someone makes a valid point that's contrary to your own perspective.0
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But that's the sort of thing that the black projects fund contingency reserve gets used forMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, surely if he read the site he'd already have announced government funding for research into genetically engineered enormo-haddock, as well as a new, trebuchet- and space cannon-based approach to justice?
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The historical numbers will include those that are dodgy in the traditional sense - i.e. people setting up limited companies to dodge tax when they are essentially doing the job of an employee. IR35 and all that jazz.Smarmeron said:@malcolmg
To be strictly accurate, only a percentage of them will be "dodgy". A look at the historical numbers of self employed would give a rough idea of the percentages0 -
He had his faults, as we all do. He was nearly as acerbic as you sometimes, and didn't tolerate fools lightly. But he faithfully served his country for all his adult life, while also finding time to be a theologian and philosopher.malcolmg said:
I am sure he thought well of your grandfather who sounds like a lovely chap.Charles said:
No thanks, my grandfather knew him very well and regarded him as a self-opinionate arse with an overly-inflated view of his own intellectual capabilities.isam said:
If you can be bothered, and can read without prejudice, have a look at Enoch Powell's Birmingham speech of 1968 and "The Road To National Suicide" from 1977DavidL said:I fundamentally disagree with the archbishop. The question is do we fight militant Islam by reverting to their standards and savagery or do we fight them by adhering to our own?
I vote the latter.
It is why I am extremely intolerant of us tolerating different cultures in this country which are not consistent with our own values. If Islamic people want to come and live in this country fine. But their women will be respected and have rights. They will dress as they want, go where they want and speak to who they want (I could get more graphic here).
If that is unacceptable to the Islamic community they have the choice. Go and live with the savages or stay here and accept our principles are better.
We are at risk because we have compromised our values. We must stop this although turning the clock back is always more difficult.
He foresaw what is happening now a long time ago. He knew it was a controversial thing to say openly, but thought it was for the greater good that he did.
He also said "Of all silly sayings, one of the silliest is 'you cant turn the clock back'. Of course you can turn the clock back and we often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, we turn it back"
That's good enough for me!0 -
The most amusing comment on twitter today:
Harry Smith @stvharry 2h
According to my back of a fag packet calculation there has been a 50% swing to @LordAshcroft among opinion poll geeks since his last poll.
Lord Ashcroft has retweeted this with a wide grin on his countenance.0 -
We know what their approach is - in relation to Shabana Mahood. To do and say absolutely nothing.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, even more interesting than their approach towards Shabana Mahmood and her role shutting down a Sainsbury's because... um... Gaza?
If Labour hold back on dealing with IS on the basis that they prefer to shore up the Muslim vote - and setting aside the appalling assumption implicit in that trade-off - then they can kiss goodbye to ever having my vote or, I hope, that of any decent, civilised person.
We should all be against barbarity, regardless of our political affiliations.
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Indeed, Miss Cyclefree. We'll see. The political establishment generally has been limp-wristed and weak-kneed when it comes to taking on Islamic extremism.0
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Come then, Mr G, I was self-employed for a number of years, technically I still am, so how did I get any additional benefits or, indeed, any benefits at all? This talk about benefits for the self-employed has been thrown around this site for quite a while, it is about time someone came up with the justification.malcolmg said:
Purely a fiddle to get people off the unemployment numbers, give them more benefits for being "self" employed.SandyRentool said:"Self-employed make up two-thirds of new jobs, ONS says"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28866302
When is a job not a job? When you claim expenses for travelling to your normal place of work!0 -
IQ strongly correlates with income which strongly correlates to voting intention. Its why Conservatives represent Richmond, Chelsea etc. and why Labour represent Hackney, Peckham etc. Perhaps even a limited IQ labour supporter can understand this?BenM said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2095549/Right-wingers-intelligent-left-wingers-says-controversial-study--conservative-politics-lead-people-racist.htmlFalseFlag said:
Labour does better in backward areas where they thrive on ignorance and desperation. Successful professionals are not the left's friends.currystar said:
The demographics of Southampton Itchen have changed massively since the last election. The area is full of posh waterside flats now, 11/4 is massive, the tories should be slightly odds on for this one.isam said:
Seldom wrong Shadsy? Cant be a bet thenTheScreamingEagles said:Tories to take Itchen 11/4 with Shadsy.
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UKIP's 2015 manifesto in the making?
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/exclusive-what-will-ukips-election-2015-manifesto-look-like0 -
It has. One wonders what level of barbarity has to happen on our streets before they take it seriously. We had a man all but beheaded on the streets of London last year and, yet, Baroness Warsi reportedly refused to implement the government's Prevent extremism policy when she was a minister, despite it being one of her duties.Morris_Dancer said:Indeed, Miss Cyclefree. We'll see. The political establishment generally has been limp-wristed and weak-kneed when it comes to taking on Islamic extremism.
The longer we duck the fight with this vicious ideology (and that fight is an intellectual / ideological / educational one as well as the obvious) the harder and longer the real fight will have to be.
Appeasement and turning a blind eye never work.
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@SandyRentool
The construction and related industries figures would account for most of those?,
The really dodgy ones, will be found elsewhere.
One of the papers had a story about a woman who got asked if she had any hobbies when registering at her local Job Centre.
The girl then started to tell her how she could become self employed selling knitwear on E bay0 -
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/columnist/vergano/2008-10-24-smart-voters_N.htmBenM said:
It's a silly study and means nothing - a bit like the comment from FalseFlag under which I posted it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M,
"The study, by academics at Brock University in Ontario, Canada, used information from two UK studies from 1958 and 1970 , where several thousand children were assessed for intelligence at age 10 and 11, and then asked political questions aged 33."
So, over 40 years old and doesn't actually consider the intelligence of the individuals when they're answering the political questions.
Also, 'innate' intelligence doesn't tally, because they were questioned at the tail end of primary school. So, they're halfway through the education system.
Her own work in the United Kingdom suggests that "that higher intelligence scores are associated with Conservative voting on average." But "those with very high level of intelligence are less likely to vote Conservative and more likely to vote Labour," Doyle adds.
Conservatives turnout more because high IQ is related to diligence in voting. Good reason Labour want prisoners to get the vote.0 -
Miss Cyclefree, makes Warsi's weird rambling about the threat of militant atheism seem even more bonkers.0
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Poll after poll shows immigration as the voters' number 1 concern, and yet labour seems to be consolidating its position at the top.
I'm always loath to go against the polls, but something about this doesn;t ring true.0 -
Moral relativism, I'm afraid. The refusal to describe things as they are, to accept that there are bad people out there who want to do bad things, the intellectually/morally dishonest desire to pretend that you know better than the terrorists themselves what they're really about.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, makes Warsi's weird rambling about the threat of militant atheism seem even more bonkers.
See, for instance, this: http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5132/hamas_tv_broadcasts_call_to_exterminate_all_the_jews
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Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
@HurstLlama
Here is a link to an article on the subject...(with I think, the proper version of the woman in the job center )
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/13/unemployment-figures-economic-recovery-uk-government-neoliberal-philosophy0 -
Appeasement and turning a blind eye never work.
What would 'taking this seriously' look like??0 -
To be serious - the weight given here to Lord Ashcroft's marginal polls should be contrasted with the criticism of YG every time they produce any poll which is mildly encouraging for the Conservatives. Today YG is wrong because of its weightings, whereas Ashcroft's marginal poll taken I believe in July leads some to declare multiple Tory losses next year despite the fact there is no evidence that marginal polling is especially effective or accurate compared to others. We need a much better sense of perspective - no polls are especially reliable or accurate just because that suits our political prejudices and all polls are at best snapshots of the moment and no guarantor of a future result.MikeK said:The most amusing comment on twitter today:
Harry Smith @stvharry 2h
According to my back of a fag packet calculation there has been a 50% swing to @LordAshcroft among opinion poll geeks since his last poll.
Lord Ashcroft has retweeted this with a wide grin on his countenance.0 -
Quote from the article:MikeK said:UKIP's 2015 manifesto in the making?
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/exclusive-what-will-ukips-election-2015-manifesto-look-like
"In private, Ukip officials estimate that the party will win between three and six seats in Parliament"0 -
Mr. Taffys, a new Act guaranteeing freedom of speech (a first amendment style piece of legislation) would be a good start.0
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It would be political dynamite if one of these ultra-jihadists in Iraq is shown to have attended one of the Trojan Horse schools.0
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Great the way some want to downgrade the economic recovery rather than celebrate the enterprise of those willing to take risks and start businesses. Far better to give them tax credits and stay at home watching the box. Welcome to Miliband's Britain.Smarmeron said:@SandyRentool
The construction and related industries figures would account for most of those?,
The really dodgy ones, will be found elsewhere.
One of the papers had a story about a woman who got asked if she had any hobbies when registering at her local Job Centre.
The girl then started to tell her how she could become self employed selling knitwear on E bay0 -
Stuart_Dickson said:
Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted
Now that would end the question of independence for a generation. Unfortunately I fear the tories may have to make do with 3 of those seats being the first and the last 2.
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''Mr. Taffys, a new Act guaranteeing freedom of speech (a first amendment style piece of legislation) would be a good start.''
I guess that would allow the mullahs to say whatever they want, at the same time as Monty Python comes out with 'The Life of Mohammed'
What we might call a full and frank exchange of views...0 -
Oh dear - if only but some pretty gigantic caveats needed there one suspects!Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
That would be fun!Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted
But I won't bet the house on it.0 -
I don't think Labour is consolidating its position. Compare their polling position with the Conservatives' at this point in 2009. The Conservative lead began to falter after the conference season, and gradually drifted downwards. Labour's lead has faltered at an earlier point in the Parliament. Some polls since May have put the Conservatives ahead. Many polls have put Labour under 35%.taffys said:Poll after poll shows immigration as the voters' number 1 concern, and yet labour seems to be consolidating its position at the top.
I'm always loath to go against the polls, but something about this doesn;t ring true.
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poll on support for Isis in UK, Germany and France
http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/press/isis-poll-for-rossiya-segodnya
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/New EU Members-Combined-July 2014-V3.pdf
overall favourable (very + somewhat)
UK 7%
Germany 2%
France 15%
some of the blogs reporting the details (can't see it elsewhere) say it's 27% among 18-24 year olds in France but i can't see that on the pdf (probably missing it?)
If that 27% among the younger population in France is accurate (and assuming it's concentrated in the cities it will be much higher there) then it won't be long till tipping point.
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@felix
It's great the way some people are blind to any ideas that don't fit their preconceptions.
Some of those "self employed" are going to be scamming the system,just as there are certainly genuine ones.
What we are looking at, is if there is any statistical way of arriving at the percentage of each.0 -
I'll be bang out of cash if that lot happens !Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted0 -
Thanks Mr S, I will read it later and let you know my thoughts.Smarmeron said:@HurstLlama
Here is a link to an article on the subject...(with I think, the proper version of the woman in the job center )
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/13/unemployment-figures-economic-recovery-uk-government-neoliberal-philosophy0 -
Mr. Taffys, 'Life of Abdul' (after all, it's Life of Brian, not Life of Jesus).
Freedom of speech wouldn't include incitement to riot or murder, obviously.0 -
UK 7%
Germany 2%
France 15%
Can that be correct, given that the entire muslim population of the UK is about 5%???
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Mr Dancer, How did we ever come to a situation where we need a new law to guarantee us what we have always had?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, a new Act guaranteeing freedom of speech (a first amendment style piece of legislation) would be a good start.
Until really quite recently, the freedom to say what you liked (subject to a few minor restrictions, such as inciting violence or sedition) was taken for granted. Speakers corner in London used to always have a copper present, but he was there to make sure people's right of free speech was not suppressed by the mob, not to monitor what people said.
So how did this freedom become to be eroded to the point where we need a new law to bring it back? My guess Identity Politics is at the heart of it - we mustn't allow people to say things that will upset a group that might vote for us.0 -
I see the prize idiot Scottish sub sample poster is here again . Con on 27% in Scotland making loads of gains . LOL . Shame he did not post the previous day's Yougov Scottish sub sample . Con on 12% and losing their only Scottish seat .0
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Mr. Llama, by slow degrees, as one boils a frog. The weak, utterly feeble reaction to the Danish protests, Lord AHmed's promise to summon an angry horde of 10,000 Muslims and, more recently, the de facto blasphemy law the media opted for when covering Jesus and Mo all had a part to play.
I agree that identity politics is also involved and, more importantly, is a vile and stupid notion in and of itself.
Edited extra bit: Labour playing the race card over immigration is another factor and, more recently, the euracism bullshit.0 -
One thing the Yougov frequency of polling does allow us to do is take means of several recent subsamples which will produce a truer picture than the misleading individual samples:
Last 7 Yougov polls Scottish Subsample mean:
CON 21 (+4)
LAB 37 (-5)
LD 7 (-12)
UKIP 3 (+2)
SNP 27 (+7)
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I think you've answered your own question.HurstLlama said:
Mr Dancer, How did we ever come to a situation where we need a new law to guarantee us what we have always had?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Taffys, a new Act guaranteeing freedom of speech (a first amendment style piece of legislation) would be a good start.
Until really quite recently, the freedom to say what you liked (subject to a few minor restrictions, such as inciting violence or sedition) was taken for granted. Speakers corner in London used to always have a copper present, but he was there to make sure people's right of free speech was not suppressed by the mob, not to monitor what people said.
So how did this freedom become to be eroded to the point where we need a new law to bring it back? My guess Identity Politics is at the heart of it - we mustn't allow people to say things that will upset a group that might vote for us.
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1) The numbers have increased since the Cameroons (because mass immigration is their economic policy). If a person thinks LibLabCon are the same (or as close as making no effective difference) on the most critical issue then (if they don't switch completely) their voting preference drops down to the next most critical issue for them.taffys said:Poll after poll shows immigration as the voters' number 1 concern, and yet labour seems to be consolidating its position at the top.
I'm always loath to go against the polls, but something about this doesn;t ring true.
2) Immigration isn't like rainfall - the yearly amount doesn't disappear each year and then you start counting again the next year - it adds up. So if you have 250,000 a year for ten years and at 2.5 million the total passed someone's point of "too much" then even if the yearly rate went down to 200,000 a year that's not actually a reduction - it's adding another 200,000 to "too much."
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...and here are the subsample figures from the previous day:Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Lab 40 (-2)
Con 12 (-5)
SNP 32 (+12)
UKIP 4 (+4)
Grn 2 (+1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/19/update-labour-lead-5/
So are the Tories 10 points up on 2010 or 5 points down? Or has there been a 15-point swing in 24 hours? Or, cough, are we wasting our time looking at subsamples?
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OK, I skimmed through it. A standard Gruaniad article. What do you actually see as the problem and how does it relate to my question about self-employed people like me getting benefits (or extra benefits of we are prepared to believe Mr. G)?Smarmeron said:@HurstLlama
Here is a link to an article on the subject...(with I think, the proper version of the woman in the job center )
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/13/unemployment-figures-economic-recovery-uk-government-neoliberal-philosophy
The other day you posted a complaint about benefits being "withdrawn" form self-employed people and how much harder it would be for self employed people starting out in fact I think you said it would be impossible without "external funding". Are you sure your problem is not just with the idea of people being self-employed?0 -
Some Muslims + extreme left probably number 7%.
If even half of that number are muslims then that means half of all the UK's muslims have some sympathy with IS..???
I thought the vast majority of moderate blah blah blah abhor IS.
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Average recent subsamples.NickPalmer said:
...and here are the subsample figures from the previous day:Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Lab 40 (-2)
Con 12 (-5)
SNP 32 (+12)
UKIP 4 (+4)
Grn 2 (+1)
LD 8 (-11)
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/19/update-labour-lead-5/
So are the Tories 10 points up on 2010 or 5 points down? Or has there been a 15-point swing in 24 hours? Or, cough, are we wasting our time looking at subsamples?
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The Secretary of State already has the power, under s. 40(2) of the British Nationality Act 1981 to remove a person's British citizenship if she is satisfied that it would be conducive to the public good, although she may not exercise that power if it would have the effect of making a person stateless. However, s. 66(1) of the Immigration Act 2014 adds new subsection (4A) to section 40 of the 1981 Act. Subsection (4A) provides that the Secretary of State may, in the case of a naturalised citizen, strip a person of their citizenship if he has conducted himself in a manner seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, and there are reasonable grounds for believing that the person will be naturalised in a foreign jurisdiction, notwithstanding the fact the removal of his citizenship would make him stateless. The amendment is not yet in force.Richard_Nabavi said:Is it? It sounds bloody silly to me. Is he really suggesting the PM should arbitrarily and without any legal process have powers to remove British citizenship?
It would be up to the courts, not the PM, to take decisions like that, and then only if parliament had granted powers to do so (which AFAIK they haven't).
In short, these authoritarian powers already exist. The decision is for a Minister of the Crown, not for the courts, albeit it is subject to review by the Special Immigration Appeals Commission. It is amazing how Tories will claim their own views are extreme when they are attributed to UKIP.0 -
Thanks for doing that, was tempted to do so myself.Pulpstar said:One thing the Yougov frequency of polling does allow us to do is take means of several recent subsamples which will produce a truer picture than the misleading individual samples:
Last 7 Yougov polls Scottish Subsample mean:
CON 21 (+4)
LAB 37 (-5)
LD 7 (-12)
UKIP 3 (+2)
SNP 27 (+7)
Much more useful than looking at a single subsample in isolation.
Incidentally, Baxtering your means results in Con and SNP gains of 4 seats apiece at the cost of the Lib Dems.0 -
"French women have a duty to wear a bikini on the beach, says former minister
Nadine Morano, a close ally of former president Nicolas Sarkozy, took a picture of the woman wearing a headscarf and posted it on her Twitter feed and Facebook page next to a famous photo of sex symbol Brigitte Bardot wearing a bikini."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2729497/French-women-duty-wear-bikini-beach-says-former-minister-Row-Sarkozy-supporter-tweets-picture-Muslim-wearing-headscarf.html0 -
First rule of polling commentary: never quote subsamples.0
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Con 27 12 14 22 31 22 18
Lab 35 40 40 36 32 38 35
LD 4 8 7 6 7 7 8
UKIP 5 4 5 4 2 1 3
SNP 24 32 27 26 25 24 31
Last 7 Yougov Scottish Subsamples
Interesting how the Standard deviation on the Conservative number is almost 6.8 compared to the next highest 3.26 for the SNP...
Could indicate that 31% is an outlier (And so might not be correct to calculate the true value of support) even given the large margin of error in the subsamples - going back and checking the last hundred Yougovs or so might shed more light.
Mean
21
37
7
3
27
Standard Deviations
6.8
2.9
1.4
1.5
3.3
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Jesus. 7% support for ISIS in the UK and the left's reaction to anyone pointing out we have a problem beyond a "tiny minority" with British Muslims is to call those raising concern 'bigots'. Through a combination of mass immigration from backwards places and political correctness, New Labour truly screwed our country. Radical action on immigration is clearly needed. Anyone applying for a visa from a country with widespread extremism should have to go through extended interviews on their political views. Given the crisis we're facing it's too late for hand-wringing about these things.0
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It is amazing how Tories will claim their own views are extreme when they are attributed to UKIP.
Excellent post. Thanks Mr Town.0 -
Also note the Lib Dems, a remarkable consistency of being remarkably bad.0
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All the greater pleasure then, when UKIP get 20 seats or more.AndyJS said:
Quote from the article:MikeK said:UKIP's 2015 manifesto in the making?
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opinions/exclusive-what-will-ukips-election-2015-manifesto-look-like
"In private, Ukip officials estimate that the party will win between three and six seats in Parliament"
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Caveat: Higher standard deviation on the Conservative score than any otherOblitusSumMe said:
Thanks for doing that, was tempted to do so myself.Pulpstar said:One thing the Yougov frequency of polling does allow us to do is take means of several recent subsamples which will produce a truer picture than the misleading individual samples:
Last 7 Yougov polls Scottish Subsample mean:
CON 21 (+4)
LAB 37 (-5)
LD 7 (-12)
UKIP 3 (+2)
SNP 27 (+7)
Much more useful than looking at a single subsample in isolation.
Incidentally, Baxtering your means results in Con and SNP gains of 4 seats apiece at the cost of the Lib Dems.0 -
To affect voting intention in a big way, it needs to be an issue that (a) people feel intensely affects them and (b) one party is much better about than the others. I think it's widely seen as a problem but not one greatly affecting them personally, and one on which they're anyway not convinced that any of the parties has a satisfactory solution. People who feel really strongly vote UKIP, everyone else votes on a range of issues or simply on instinctive sympathy or lack of it.taffys said:Poll after poll shows immigration as the voters' number 1 concern, and yet labour seems to be consolidating its position at the top.
I'm always loath to go against the polls, but something about this doesn;t ring true.
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Fun is the correct word.Charles said:
That would be fun!Stuart_Dickson said:Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (263 respondents); usual caveats apply.
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Lab 35% (-7)
Con 27% (+10)
SNP 24% (+4)
UKIP 5% (+4)
Grn 4% (+3)
LD 4% (-15)
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fb2qv5vb65/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190814.pdf
Baxtered:
Lab 36 seats (-5 seats)
Con 15 seats (+14 seats)
SNP 7 seats (+1 seat)
LD 1 seat (-10 seats)
Con gains:
Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown
Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling
Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson
Aberdeen South Anne Begg
Edinburgh South Ian Murray
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander
Edinburgh West Michael Crockart
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Charlie Kennedy
Gordon Malcolm Bruce
Argyll and Bute Alan Reid
North East Fife Sir Menzies Campbell
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=27&LAB=35&LIB=4&NAT=24®ion=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted
But I won't bet the house on it.
Talking of which, where is the Joker in Chief Mark Senior?0 -
7% that's getting on for 4 million adults.Socrates said:Jesus. 7% support for ISIS in the UK and the left's reaction to anyone pointing out we have a problem beyond a "tiny minority" with British Muslims is to call those raising concern 'bigots'. Through a combination of mass immigration from backwards places and political correctness, New Labour truly screwed our country. Radical action on immigration is clearly needed. Anyone applying for a visa from a country with widespread extremism should have to go through extended interviews on their political views. Given the crisis we're facing it's too late for hand-wringing about these things.
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Depends where you poll. The big city percentages are pretty much the mirror image of elsewhere.
It would certainly be interesting to look at the London percentage.0 -
Correct and way above the entire muslim population. Since most people do not know their MP do people even know what ISIS is? I have tko say a result like this makes me doubt the point of opinion polls.Alanbrooke said:
7% that's getting on for 4 million adults.Socrates said:Jesus. 7% support for ISIS in the UK and the left's reaction to anyone pointing out we have a problem beyond a "tiny minority" with British Muslims is to call those raising concern 'bigots'. Through a combination of mass immigration from backwards places and political correctness, New Labour truly screwed our country. Radical action on immigration is clearly needed. Anyone applying for a visa from a country with widespread extremism should have to go through extended interviews on their political views. Given the crisis we're facing it's too late for hand-wringing about these things.
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I can't believe it's 7%..7% of British Muslims maybe?0
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Was that amendment not brought in to overturn the Al-Jedda case where the Supreme Court held that the fact the respondent had chosen not to apply for restoration of his Iraqi citizenship meant that the Secretary of State could not make the order?Life_ina_market_town said:
The Secretary of State already has the power, under s. 40(2) of the British Nationality Act 1981 to remove a person's British citizenship if she is satisfied that it would be conducive to the public good, although she may not exercise that power if it would have the effect of making a person stateless. However, s. 66(1) of the Immigration Act 2014 adds new subsection (4A) to section 40 of the 1981 Act. Subsection (4A) provides that the Secretary of State may, in the case of a naturalised citizen, strip a person of their citizenship if he has conducted himself in a manner seriously prejudicial to the vital interests of the United Kingdom, and there are reasonable grounds for believing that the person will be naturalised in a foreign jurisdiction, notwithstanding the fact the removal of his citizenship would make him stateless. The amendment is not yet in force.Richard_Nabavi said:Is it? It sounds bloody silly to me. Is he really suggesting the PM should arbitrarily and without any legal process have powers to remove British citizenship?
It would be up to the courts, not the PM, to take decisions like that, and then only if parliament had granted powers to do so (which AFAIK they haven't).
In short, these authoritarian powers already exist. The decision is for a Minister of the Crown, not for the courts, albeit it is subject to review by the Special Immigration Appeals Commission. It is amazing how Tories will claim their own views are extreme when they are attributed to UKIP.
I would like to think that the fact that it has not been brought into force indicates some second thoughts.
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They don't have religion on the ISIS poll... wonder what it would find.0
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Off the employed numbers, perhaps, and onto a different regime of NI.HurstLlama said:
Come then, Mr G, I was self-employed for a number of years, technically I still am, so how did I get any additional benefits or, indeed, any benefits at all? This talk about benefits for the self-employed has been thrown around this site for quite a while, it is about time someone came up with the justification.malcolmg said:
Purely a fiddle to get people off the unemployment numbers, give them more benefits for being "self" employed.SandyRentool said:"Self-employed make up two-thirds of new jobs, ONS says"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28866302
When is a job not a job? When you claim expenses for travelling to your normal place of work!
But chartered accountancy is unlikely to be a profession where these people aren't "working" at all.0 -
Depends where it's polled. 7% in London might be like 1% outside.Slackbladder said:I can't believe it's 7%..7% of British Muslims maybe?
edit: also don't forget it's 2% very favourable, some of the 5% somewhat favourable will be general anti Iraq war sentiment.
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well maybe, but if it's correct then we've got a lot of sick people in the country.Flightpath said:
Correct and way above the entire muslim population. Since most people do not know their MP do people even know what ISIS is? I have tko say a result like this makes me doubt the point of opinion polls.Alanbrooke said:
7% that's getting on for 4 million adults.Socrates said:Jesus. 7% support for ISIS in the UK and the left's reaction to anyone pointing out we have a problem beyond a "tiny minority" with British Muslims is to call those raising concern 'bigots'. Through a combination of mass immigration from backwards places and political correctness, New Labour truly screwed our country. Radical action on immigration is clearly needed. Anyone applying for a visa from a country with widespread extremism should have to go through extended interviews on their political views. Given the crisis we're facing it's too late for hand-wringing about these things.
France on the other hand is just totally dire, they've got 8 million adults with a problem.0
