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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than in national polling
On the basis of today's round of @LordAshcroft polls LAB is doing better in the marginals and is heading for working majority
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Or yes if you think the true picture is decent for Ed, which is in itself obviously very good for Labour.
To my mind it reinforces something along the lines of Lab 37 Con 33.5 UKIP 14 LD 8
Also, do we actually know that the 'local voting intention' question is a better predictor of the final result than the standard question? It seems to be an article of faith that it should be, but has anyone actually tested the hypothesis?
As Richard asked on the last thread, do we know when incumbency effects might be expected to show up in constituency polling? There's a plausible case that it might not be until the campaign, but equally there's a plausible case that you should see it instantly (as people "stick" with their previous vote).
If (and it's a big if) that UKIP vote drifts to the tories in the run-up to the GE, then those seats look a whole lot more holdable.
@Charles
"LOL! I'm glad you clarified the point in brackets... otherwise I might have misunderstood...
There was a very good article (forget who) the other day asking why people are so keen to watch/share this kind of video. I have no desire to see it, or any of the other barbarities ISIS are inflicting on people.
What I do find extraordinary is why people who grew up in Britain are willing to do this sort of thing. I can just about rationalise why someone might fall prey to a twisted ideology and decide to head off to the Middle East to fight for the caliphate. But to turn around and start beheading and crucifying people? Extraordinary. I think we should consider, very seriously, cancelling their passports - they have decided that their first loyalty is not to the UK. Fine. Let them live with that decision."
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Was it this from Douglas Murray?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2014/08/when-it-comes-to-jihad-porn-abstinence-is-best/
I completely agree with you. I have said time and time again why I think we are in this mess and who should have been listened to. But dogma's dogma, and people would rather argue over minute details than admit they were wrong.
The last ICM had a 7% Labour lead. Possibly an outlier but that is a 7% swing from the last election. Unless I am getting this wrong only Plymouth is showing a larger swing than that and then only marginally. On a more normal Labour lead of 5% a few more of these seats would be in line with what the polling is telling us but several would not.
The tories have a long way to go. They need to get a lead and then get that lead back to something like they had when they won these seats in the first place. Well, that's a shocker.
Money on Lab most seats is of Mrs BJ demands a divorce proportions if it loses or will pay for a nice holiday if it wins.
"Our sufferings today are the prelude of those you, Europeans and Western Christians, will also suffer in the near future," says Amel Nona, 47, Chaldean archbishop of Mosul exiled in Erbil. The message is unequivocal: the only way to end the Christian exodus from the places that witnessed its origins in the pre-Islamic age is to respond to violence with violence, to force with force. Nona is a wounded, pain-stricken man, but not resigned. "I lost my diocese. The physical setting of my apostolate has been occupied by Islamic radicals who want us converted or dead. But my community is still alive." He is very glad to meet Western media. "Please, try to understand us," he exclaims. "Your liberal and democratic principles are worth nothing here. You must consider again our reality in the Middle East, because you are welcoming in your countries an ever growing number of Muslims. Also you are in danger. You must take strong and courageous decisions, even at the cost of contradicting your principles. You think all men are equal," Archbishop Amel Nona continues, "but that is not true: Islam does not say that all men are equal. Your values are not their values. If you do not understand this soon enough, you will become the victims of the enemy you have welcomed in your home."
You think laying 16/1 about something which is now 5/2 doesn't equal being wrong... I could say you clearly have no idea about the nuances of betting
Unless youre suggesting Lab will rule for a a looong time
It is probably even better for you southern softies.
So you will probably enjoy several more Conservative governments yet.
The irony will be when ISIS start bombing/beheading whatever they are going to do in the UK, it will probably be in London, where the people who are most sympathetic to them live
The UK spent £11.4bn on aid in 2013.
In 2012-3, tuition fees for home students amounted to £7.4bn, a rise of £1.7bn on the previous year. However as a student on £3,500/year fees I only graduated my three-year course this year. So 2013-14 fees should be higher again and some lag for longer and deferred courses after that.
Won't get much out of the aid budget after that.
*edited to avoid setting off the spam trap
Looking at the four-Labour held seats which were previously polled in May, here are the changes in the Labour lead (local voting intention question) since then:
Birmingham Edgbaston +8
Hampstead & Kilburn +6
Bolton West 0
Southampton Itchen -8
And here is the change in the net economic optimism 'for me and my family' (i.e. Well - Badly):
Birmingham Edgbaston -13
Hampstead & Kilburn -5
Bolton West +7
Southampton Itchen +12
Now, it's only four data points, and they are subject to considerable random error, and we might be talking about difference in the samples rather than differences in the constituencies, but does this perhaps give a clue that the economic outlook does indeed have an effect on VI?
Edit: Actually it is also consistent with the reverse hypothesis, which is that voting intention affects economic optimism.
CLPs section
Livingstone, Ken (Grassroots Alliance) 39,548 Elected
Black, Ann (Grassroots Alliance) 36,496 Elected
Reeves, Ellie (Labour First) 31,278 Elected
Shawcroft, Christine (Grassroots Alliance) 29,558 Elected
Osamor, Kate (Grassroots Alliance) 28,484 Elected
Baxter, Johanna (Independent) 24,325 Elected
Willsman, Peter (Grassroots Alliance) 23,362
Williams, Darren (Grassroots Alliance) 21,307
Akehurst, Luke (Labour First) 21,115
Nosegbe, Florence (Progress) 19,174
Wheeler, Peter (Labour First) 18,724
Peel, Kevin (Progress) 17,830
Flintoff, Crispin 12,539
Local Government Section
Mcmahon, Jim 1,894 Elected
Perry, Alice 1,510 Elected
Lucas, Ann 1,402
Henig, Simon 1,229
In any case, scanning oddschecker to catch out a bookie that hasn't updated their markets the instant a poll comes out is hardly shrewd, and if you personally know the guy that makes the odds its pretty low tbh
Labour actually hasn't seen its vote share increase by much in the seats that have been surveyed. The key for the Conservatives is to get back c.50% of the UKIP vote.
Andrea Parma @AndreaParma82 4m
NEC results http://action.labour.org.uk/page/content/ballot2014 … Grassroots Alliance won it with 4 elected out of 6.
Expand
http://action.labour.org.uk/page/content/ballot2014
These boys don't seem to have the courage of their convictions.. just want to bash up London Jews
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/07/flag-isis-jihadi-islamic-state-flown-poplar-east-london?CMP=twt_fd
I vote the latter.
It is why I am extremely intolerant of us tolerating different cultures in this country which are not consistent with our own values. If Islamic people want to come and live in this country fine. But their women will be respected and have rights. They will dress as they want, go where they want and speak to who they want (I could get more graphic here).
If that is unacceptable to the Islamic community they have the choice. Go and live with the savages or stay here and accept our principles are better.
We are at risk because we have compromised our values. We must stop this although turning the clock back is always more difficult.
It would be very interesting to know what the marginals were reading then, to what they are now.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1050
Now hoping to make it through Cameron to Ed and beyond
They usually do.
Osamor +10886 votes
Ken +7866
Reeves +7861
Shawcroft +7322
Williams +6666
Willsman +6576
Nosegbe +6429
Black +6256
Baxter +4179
Akehurst +3640
Wheeler +1003
He foresaw what is happening now a long time ago. He knew it was a controversial thing to say openly, but thought it was for the greater good that he did.
He also said "Of all silly sayings, one of the silliest is 'you cant turn the clock back'. Of course you can turn the clock back and we often do. If a clock is showing the wrong time, we turn it back"
We could make a start by challenging the anti-Semitism which too many in the Islamic community exhibit, as stated by Muslim commentators themselves - see, for instance, Kenan Malik who has written bravely on this topic. The silence of British politicians on this, given events in recent days, is not encouraging. Why has Ed Milliband not spoken up about the disgraceful behaviour of his junior Treasury spokeswoman?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2729287/ISIS-beheads-journalist-James-Wright-Foley-warning-US.html
There is a certain weariness in Scotland about this whole referendum and while the turnout may be high it may not be as high as predicted especially amongst the young who have given up voting anyway.
"The key for the Conservatives is to get back c.50% of the UKIP vote."
If that really is the key then the Conservatives are doomed, because they won't get 50% of the UKIP vote back, it has gone for the foreseeable future. They will get some back and I think it depends where that vote is. If it is in the marginals, as I strongly suspect it might be, then that will be useful. Whether it will be useful enough I would not like to guess.
In these seats it is Lab 40%, Con 30%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lab-marginals-report-August-2014.pdf
I think they just said that on Sky news.
I canna keep track.
Mr. L, the problem is we aren't fighting for our own values. When it comes to freedom of speech we backed down over the Danish cartoons, Jesus and Mo was censored, and we have a de facto blasphemy law in place.
We need to start standing up for freedom of speech and state overtly it matters more than religious sensitivity.
Instead we have a dereliction of duty from political leaders and cowardice from the media. Meanwhile, two supermarkets have been subject to the mob because of Gaza [a special sort of logic there].
(yeah, probably)
Do you really hold such a low opinion of over half your compatriots?
I guess 0.5 was kinda obvious -
Still - Team PB - First with the news!!!
UKIP calls for PM to strip UK ISIS fighters of their citizenship.
If they are sending these out to most households, it must be costing them a fortune.
Went straight in the shredder, as does most political campaigning post received.
The scars the separatists have inflicted on the country will take generations to heal.
You mean you had a chance to tell Cameron what you really think of him... and threw it away?
Epic fail.
The polling did look odd, and several people on the YouGov site commented on it. But it is the consistency of the methodology that causes it rather than inconsistency
Strip Islamic State Jihadists of British citizenship
http://www.ukip.org/strip_islamic_state_jihadists_of_british_citizenship
Clever line by Farage.
A decent call.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2564647/Defence-Secretary-Philip-Hammond-TWICE-mistakes-Labours-Liz-Kendall-Rachel-Reeves-Question-Time.html
It would be up to the courts, not the PM, to take decisions like that, and then only if parliament had granted powers to do so (which AFAIK they haven't).
Many do oppose this on infringement of human rights basis. We had an interesting debate about it on here recently.
http://chpi.org.uk/patientsafety/
Which side will the public be on? You may very well be correct on the technicalities, but I doubt the electorate will consider or care about that.
On a related note, didn't May recently raise the idea of stripping Britons of their citizenship?
I also dislike making people stateless.
I'm no lawyer, but it would almost certainly mean repealing all sorts of legislation, and mean we would have to get out of the ECHR.